Simple linear regression

Aroma Drip Coffee Inc. produces commercial coffee machines that

are sold over the world. The company's production facility has
1 operated at near capacity for over a year now. Wayne conner, the
plant manager, thinks that sales growth will continue and he wants
to develop long range forecasts to help plan facility requirements for
the next 3 year. sales record for the past 10 years have been
complied here.

Year =x Annual Sales=y

1 1000
2 1300
3 1800
4 2000
5 2000
6 2000
7 2200
8 2600
9 2900
10 3200
55 21000

Ranging time series forecast

Consider previous data. The distributio of forecast value for a future

2 time period has a standard deviation , which is a relative measure of
how the distribution is disperesed about its expected value (Y).
Distribution of all future time periods' forecast values are assumed to
be student's t distribution.
Year =x Annual Sales=y
1 1000
2 1300
3 1800
4 2000
5 2000
6 2000
7 2200
8 2600
9 2900
10 3200
55 21000
 Seasonality in time series forecast

Wayne conners, the plant manager of Aroma drip coffee Inc. is trying
to plsn cash, personal and materials and supplies requirements for
3 each quarter of next year. The quarterly sales data for the past three
years seems to reflects fairly the seasonal output pattern that should
be expected in the future. If wayne could estimate quarterly sales for
next year, the cash, personal and materials & supplies needs could be
determined.
Quarterly sales (thousands of
Year Q1
Seasonalize data 8 520
9 590
10 650
Total 1760
Average 586.66666666667
S.I 0.8091954022989

Quarterly sales (thousands of

Deseasonalize data Year Q1
8 642.61363636364
9 729.11931818182
10 803.26704545455
Year^2 Year*sales a b
1 1000 913.333333333333 215.75757576
4 2600 b
9 5400 Y11 3286.6666667 Y= a + bx
16 8000 Y12 3502.4242424
25 10000 Y13 3718.1818182
36 12000
49 15400
64 20800
81 26100
100 32000
385 133300

Year^2 Year*sales Y^2 Syx Upper Limit Lower Limit

1 1000 1000000 Two-tailed test 173.03003768 3608.50253675 2964.8307966
4 2600 1690000 Signle Tailed test 3685.67393356 2887.6593998
9 5400 3240000
16 8000 4000000
25 10000 4000000
36 12000 4000000
49 15400 4840000
64 20800 6760000
81 26100 8410000
100 32000 10240000
385 133300 48180000
Quarterly sales (thousands of units)
Q2 Q3 Q4 Total In Year
730 820 530 2600
810 900 600 2900
900 1000 650 3200
2440 2720 1780
813.3333 906.666667 593.3333 725
1.121839 1.25057471 0.818391

Y X
Quarterly sales (thousands of units) 8,Q1 642.613636364 1
Q2 Q3 Q4 8,Q2 650.717213115 2
650.7172 655.698529 647.6124 8,Q3 655.698529412 3
722.0287 719.669118 733.1461 8,Q4 647.612359551 4
802.2541 799.632353 794.2416 9,Q1 729.119318182 5
9,Q2 722.028688525 6
9,Q3 719.669117647 7
9,Q4 733.146067416 8
10,Q1 803.267045455 9
10,Q2 802.254098361 10
10,Q3 799.632352941 11
10,Q4 794.241573034 12
 t
1.86