Problem:

A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests and 42% of the class passed the first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the second test?

Analysis: This problem describes a conditional probability since it asks us to find the probability that the second test was passed given that the first test was passed. In the last lesson, the notation for conditional probability was used in the statement of Multiplication Rule 2. Multiplication Rule 2: When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is:

The formula for the Conditional Probability of an event can be derived from Multiplication Rule 2 as follows: Start with Multiplication Rule 2. Divide both sides of equation by P(A).

Cancel P(A)s on right-hand side of equation.

Commute the equation. We have derived the formula for conditional probability. Now we can use this formula to solve the problem at the top of the page. Problem: A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests and 42% of the class passed the first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the second test? Solution: P(Second|First) = P(First and Second) 0.25 = = 0.60 = 60% P(First) 0.42

Let's look at some other problems in which we are asked to find a conditional probability.

Example 1:

A jar contains black and white marbles. Two marbles are chosen without replacement. The probability of selecting a black marble and then a white marble is 0.34, and the probability of selecting a black marble on the first draw is 0.47. What is the probability of selecting a white marble on the second draw, given that the first marble drawn was black? P(White|Black) = P(Black and White) 0.34 = = 0.72 = 72% P(Black) 0.47

Solution:

Example 2:

The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent is 0.03. Since there are 5 school days in a week, the probability that it is Friday is 0.2. What is the probability that a student is absent given that today is Friday? P(Absent|Friday) = P(Friday and Absent) 0.03 = = 0.15 = 15% P(Friday) 0.2

Solution:

Example 3: At Kennedy Middle School, the probability that a student takes Technology and Spanish is 0.087. The probability that a student takes Technology is 0.68. What is the probability that a student takes Spanish given that the student is taking Technology? Solution: P(Spanish|Technology) = P(Technology and Spanish) 0.087 = = 0.13 = 13% P(Technology) 0.68

Summary: The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional probability is P(B|A), read as the probability of B given A. The formula for conditional probability is:

The Venn Diagram below illustrates P(A), P(B), and P(A and B). What two sections would have to be divided to find P(B|A)? Answer

Set Theory Symbols

List of set symbols of set theory and probability.

Table of set theory symbols

Symbol Symbol Name Meaning / definition Example

{} A B

set intersection union subset proper subset / strict subset not subset superset proper superset / strict superset not superset power set power set equality complement relative complement relative complement symmetric difference symmetric difference element of not element of ordered pair cartesian product

A B A B A B A B A B A B A B 2A (A) A=B Ac A\B A-B AB A B a A x A (a,b) AB

a collection of elements A={3,7,9,14}, B={9,14,28} objects that belong to set A A B = {9,14} and set B objects that belong to set A A  B = {3,7,9,14,28} or set B subset has less elements or {9,14,28} {9,14,28} equal to the set subset has less elements than {9,14} {9,14,28} the set left set not a subset of right {9,66} {9,14,28} set set A has more elements or {9,14,28} {9,14,28} equal to the set B set A has more elements than {9,14,28} {9,14} set B set A is not a superset of set {9,14,28} {9,66} B all subsets of A all subsets of A both sets have the same A={3,9,14}, B={3,9,14}, A=B members all the objects that do not belong to set A objects that belong to A and A={3,9,14}, B={1,2,3}, Anot to B B={9,14} objects that belong to A and A={3,9,14}, B={1,2,3}, Anot to B B={9,14} objects that belong to A or B A={3,9,14}, B={1,2,3}, A but not to their intersection B={1,2,9,14} objects that belong to A or B A={3,9,14}, B={1,2,3}, A  but not to their intersection B={1,2,9,14} set membership A={3,9,14}, 3  A no set membership A={3,9,14}, 1  A collection of 2 elements set of all ordered pairs from

|A| #A U      
0

cardinality cardinality aleph empty set universal set natural numbers set (with zero) natural numbers set (without zero) integer numbers set rational numbers set real numbers set

A and B the number of elements of set A={3,9,14}, |A|=3 A the number of elements of set A={3,9,14}, #A=3 A infinite cardinality ={} C = {} set of all possible values  0= {0,1,2,3,4,...}  1= {1,2,3,4,5,...} 0   6  
0

 = {...-3,-2,-1,0,1,2,3,...}  = {x | x=a/b, a,b  }  = {x | - < x <}  = {z | z=a+bi, -<a<, complex numbers set -<b<}

-6   2/6   6.343434   6+2i