Hazard Assessment For The Part of NW Himalayas

FAULT-BASED PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT
FOR PART OF NORTH-WEST HIMALAYAN THRUST SYSTEM,

PAKISTAN
By
BASIT ALI, ASAD ALI KHAN, BASIT IQBAL,

JANSHER KHAN, UMAR AZIZ, MUDASSIR ABBAS
A Thesis submitted to
The University Of Swabi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
BS (4-Years) in Geology
BS (HONS) IN GEOLOGY
DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGY
UNIVERSITY OF SWABI, KHYBER PUKHTUNKHWA, PAKISTAN
SESSION 2017 - 2021

PAKISTAN
By
BASIT ALI, ASAD ALI KHAN, BASIT IQBAL,

JANSHER KHAN, UMAR AZIZ, MUDASSIR ABBAS
A Thesis submitted to
The University Of Swabi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
BS (HONS) IN GEOLOGY
Approved by:
____________________
Dr. Syed Tanveer Shah Major Supervisor
Lecturer, Department of Geology, University of Swabi
____________________
Dr. Laeiq Ahmad Head of Department of
Geology
Assistant Professor,
Department of Geology, University of Swabi
____________________
Prof. Dr. Mukhtar Alam, Dean Faculty of Sciences
University of Swabi
DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGY
UNIVERSITY OF SWABI, KHYBER PUKHTUNKHWA, PAKISTAN
SESSION 2017 – 2021

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter Title Page No.
LIST OF TABLES......................................................................................iv
LIST OF FIGURES....................................................................................iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS..........................................................................iv
ABSTRACT................................................................................................iv
I. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................19
II. SEISMIC SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION..........................................19
III. GROUND MOTION PREDICTION EUATIONS.....................................19
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS...............................................................19
LITERATURE CITED...............................................................................19
LIST OF TABLES
Table No. Title Page No.
Table 2.1 Empirical Relationship of the maximum credible earthquake with respect to
its maximum rupturing segment (Wells & Coppersmith, 1994).................no
Table 2.2 Seismic source parameters used in this studies. For NW Himalaya, Pakistan
the Mmax values are calculated using relation of (Wells & Coppersmith 1994).
The weights for each parameter in the seismic source characterization (SSC)
logic tree are provided in the brackets. Abbreviations are F.S.: Fault system;
F: fault segment; L: Length; SD: Seismogenic Depth; FT: Fault type; RS:
Rupture scenario; SR: Slip rate...................................................................no
Table 3.1 Model Applicability Range of the Four NGA-West 2 GMPEs for Magnitude,
Distance, Vs30, and Spectral Period...........................................................no
LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. No. Title Page No.
Fig 1.1 Seismic Hazard Zonation for the site of Mansehra and surrounding area (After
Monalisa, 2014)................................................................................................
Fig 1.2 Seismic Microzonation Map of Upper Hazara and surrounding regarding
expected PGA (After Talal Iqbal et al., 2008)...............................................
Fig 1.3 PGA Map in 3D view for the site of Mansehra for various return periods (After
Naveed Ahmad, 2008....................................................................................
Fig 2.1 Indian-Eurasia collisional and drifting History (After Pierre Dezes, 1999). .
Fig 2.2 Geologic Map of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis with major structures of the region
(After M. Qasim et al., 2014).........................................................................
Fig 2.3 Critical tectonic feature near the site of Mansehra (After Monalisa, 2014).
Fig 2.4 Map showing seismogenic structures and instrumental seismicity of the study
area since 1900 (After Talal Iqbal et at., 2008).............................................
Fig 2.5 Map showing seismogenic structures of the study area in NW Himalaya,
Pakistan..........................................................................................................
Fig 2.6 Seismicity distribution of earthquakes along the faults in NW Himalaya,

Pakistan, Yellow star shows major events with magnitude Mb> 5.7............
Fig 2.7 Magnitude versus Depth Histogram..............................................................
Fig 2.8 Magnitude versus No. of earthquake Histogram..........................................
Fig 2.9 Time versus No. of earthquake Histogram....................................................
Fig 2.10.a b-value using Least Square Method.............................................................
Fig 2.10.b b-value using Maximum Likelihood Method..............................................

Fig 2.11 Fault segmentation (left hand side) and rupturing scenarios (right hand side)
presented in this study....................................................................................
Fig 2.12 Fault map of the study area in the NW Himalaya, Pakistan with slip rate
assigned to each fault and its splays..............................................................
Fig 2.13 MMT rupture system with assigned slip rate.................................................
Fig 2.14 MBT rupture system with assigned slip rate..................................................
Fig 2.15 Panjal Thrust rupture system with assigned slip rate.....................................
Fig 2.16 Thakot Fault rupture system with assigned slip rate.....................................
Fig 2.17 Mansehra Thrust rupture system with assigned slip rate..............................
Fig 2.18 Oghi Thrust rupture system with assigned slip rate......................................
Fig 2.19 Puran Fault rupture system with assigned slip rate .....................................
Fig 2.20 Kotli Fault rupture system with assigned slip rate.........................................
Fig 2.21 HFT rupture system with assigned slip rate.....................................................
Fig 4.1 Location of the Grid of Points at which the PSHA was performed with respect
to the Seismic source.....................................................................................
Fig 4.2 Hazard Map Contours of 475-Year Return Period PGA for the part of NW
Himalayas, Pakistan.......................................................................................
Fig 4.3 Hazard Map Contours of 2475-Year Return Period PGA for the part of NW
Himalayas, Pakistan.......................................................................................
Fig 4.4 Location of the study area and PSHA conducted sites in NW Himalaya,
Pakistan..........................................................................................................
Fig 4.5 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Muzafarabad..............................
Fig 4.6 Deaggregation for Muzafarabad for 10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years
(475 Year Return Period) Hazard Level (Vs30=760m/s, PGA)....................
Fig 4.7 Deaggregation for Muzafarabad for 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years
(2 475 Year Return Period) Hazard Level (Vs30=760m/s, PGA).................
Fig 4.8 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Mansehra...................................
Fig 4.9 Deaggregation for Mansehra for 10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years
Fig 4.10 Deaggregation for Mansehra for 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years (2

475 Year Return Period) Hazard Level (Vs30=760m/s, PGA).....................
Fig 4.11 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Batagram...................................
Fig 4.12 Deaggregation for Batagram for 10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years
Fig 4.13 Deaggregation for Batagram for 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years (2

Fig 4.14 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Abbotabad.................................
Fig 4.15 Deaggregation for Abbotabad for 10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years
Fig 4.16 Deaggregation for Abbotabad for 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years (2

475 Year Return Period) Hazard Level (Vs30=760m/s, PGA)
Fig 4.17 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Islamabad...................................
Fig 4.18 Deaggregation for Islamabad for 10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years
Fig 4.19 Deaggregation for Islamabad for 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years (2

Fig 4.20 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Tarbela Dam..............................
Fig 4.21 Deaggregation for Tarbela Dam for 10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years
(475 Year Return Period) Hazard Level (Vs30=760m/s, PGA).......................
Fig 4.22 Deaggregation for Tarbela Dam for 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years
(2 475 Year Return Period) Hazard Level (Vs30=760m/s, PGA).................
Fig 4.23 Comparison of PGA values for all the six (06) sites location of the study area in
NW Himalaya, Pakistan ................................................................................
ABSTRACT

PAKISTAN
BASIT ALI, ASAD ALI KHAN, BASIT IQBAL

UMAR AZIZ, JANSHER KHAN, MUDASIR ABBAS
BS. Department of Geology
Supervisor: Dr. Syed Tanvir Shah
August 2021, XYZ Pages
The NW Himalayan frontal thrust of, Pakistan is characterized by a system of complex active
faults, which have generated large magnitude earthquakes in the past e.g., Kangra earthquake,
1905 and Kashmir earthquake 2005. The objective of this study is to perform probabilistic
seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the region using fault-based approach and
contemporary ground motion prediction equations of NGA West-2 project. The active fault
model and associated parameters are compiled from updated geological map of Pakistan,
previously conducted studies in the region, and available earthquake catalogue of
International Seismological Center (ISC). The PSHA results for the region are presented in
the form of Hazard maps of 500 and 2500 year return period. Moreover, hazard curves and
deaggregation curves for important cities in the vicinity are also presented. The hazard maps
indicates that the region is more hazardous which has assigned with the PGA value of 0.3g to
0.7g for 475-Year return period. Among the selected sites at which PSHA is conducted
Muzafarabad is suggested the most hazardous city which has the PGA value of 0.76g for the
475-year return period.
Key words: NW Himalayas, Probabilistic approach, MBT Splay-2, NGA West-2

Acknowledgements
First of all our special gratitude is to supervisor Professor Dr. Tanveer Ali Shah for giving us
an opportunity to work under his supervision. His valuable guidance and suggestions
throughout the research work kept our confidence and spirit high. Throughout this work he
provided us a good environment, special care, many good ideas, valuable comments, and
critical review of this thesis.
Thanks also to our Head of Department, Dr. Laieq Ahmad for providing us relax environment
in University of Swabi during completion of these thesis.
We would like to express deep gratitude to our parents for their love, affection and support
throughout our student life. With all our heart we thanks to our all family members and
friends who kept in touch with us during the whole period and took care of my requirements
during our thesis work.
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
The collision of the Eurasian plate with the Indo-Pak plate results the uplifting of the
Himalayas about 50 million years ago and producing several landscapes where peoples
started adjusting and begins their life. The Indo-Pak plate is currently penetrating into Asia at
a rate of ~45 mm/year along with anticlockwise rotation (Sella et al., 2002). The PSHA
study is conducted at the NW Himalaya, Pakistan consists within the crystalline nappe zone
and Hazara-Kashmir syntaxis which was named as NW Himalayan Fold-and-Thrust Belt
(Kazmi & Jan, 1997). This belt is seismically active zone which has produced large
magnitude earthquakes in the past i.e., October 8, 2005 Muzafarabad. In the past, Pakistan
has suffered a lot and huge damages due to destructive and large magnitude earthquakes i.e.,
earthquake having magnitude 7.6 Mw. Recently the 2019 Kashmir earthquake also struck the
region that has magnitude of 5.6 Mw which occurred on September 24, 2019 which has
epicenter at Mirpur city, Pakistan causing 40 deaths and approximately 850 injuries (ISC).
There has been no systematic scientific research of hazard assessment in this region before to
the earthquake on October 8, 2005. As a result, the people and the government paid a
tremendous price in human lives, land loss, and the evacuation and reconstruction of whole
communities. The occurrence of the 7.6 Mw magnitude earthquake in north Pakistan in
October 08, 2008 has increased the urban earthquake risk in the area due to high rate of
urbanization, faulty land use planning and construction, and inadequate infrastructure (Mona
Lisa et al., 2009).
1.1 Research Statement
The earthquakes are natural phenomena and occur along seismically active regions where we
has the sudden release of energy. Earthquakes cannot be stopped, but its hazards can be
mitigated/reduced by adopting the precautions. The NW Himalaya, Pakistan is positioned in
an active regime called as the Crystalline Nappe Zone and Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis which
are tectonically active region and capable of generating earthquakes of larger magnitude like
past. The Mansehra Thrust, Oghi Thrust, Thahtkot Fault, Main Boundary Thrust, Panjal
Thrust, Main Mantle Thrust, Himalayan Frontal Thrust, Kotli Thrust, Puran Fault, are the
most critical tectonic features that are distributed in the NW Himalaya, Pakistan. Hence due
to these active faults the area is most hazardous which can shake the earth with sufficient
acceleration that can cause huge destruction in the infrastructure and diversity.
1.2 Objectives and scope of the study

The goal of the study is to carry out detailed probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the
NW Himalayan thrust system of Pakistan by compiling and devising an updated fault base
model and up to date ground motion prediction equations. The objective defined in order to
achieve the goals are as under;
 Compilation of active fault map of the NW Himalaya, Pakistan
 Identification and classification of seismically active faults data for the part of
NW Himalaya, Pakistan
 Seismicity analysis of the region
 Devising a planar fault model for the study region by incorporating geologic,
geodetic, and seismic data available for the region
 Carrying out a detailed fault-based PSHA for the study area
 Updating hazard map for the region and computing hazard curves for major
cities i.e. Mansehra, Muzafarabad, Batagram, Abbotabad, Islamabad and
Tarbela Dam in NW Himalaya, Pakistan
1.3 Previous Seismic Studies in Mansehra

1.3.1 Mona Lisa et al., (2014)
Mona Lisa et al., 2014 proposed seismic hazard map for Mansehra and its surrounding which
designated twelve faults as most hazardous and the most critical regarding the seismologic
ally data was Balakot to Poonch. The maximum potential earthquake was assigned to this
fault that was 7.8. according to her PSHA results it shows peak ground acceleration (PGA)
value of 0.25 g (10% probability of exceedance for 50 years) for the period of 475 years by
using the attenuation law of (Ambraseys et al., 1997: Boree et al., 1997) and the DSHA
results shows PGA value of 0.5 g for the site of Mansehra.
Figure 1.1: Seismic Hazard Zonation for the site of Mansehra and surrounding area (After
Monalisa, 2014)
1.3.2 Talal Iqbal et al., (2008)

According to (Talal et al., 2008) the part of NW Himalaya is located in the zone of very high
seismic hazard where the Main Boundary Thrust and its splays can generate an earthquake of
magnitude 7.4 Mw. Their analysis of seismic microzoning of upper Hazara regions shows the
PGA value of 0.5g for the region.
Figure 1.2: Seismic Microzonation Map of Upper Hazara and surrounding regarding
expected PGA (After Talal Iqbal et al., 2008)
1.3.3 Naveed Ahmad, (2008)

Naveed Ahmad developed a seismic risk model for part of NW Himalayas, Pakistan by using
DBELA methodology, PSHA methodology, and ground motion prediction equations
(GMPEs). His PSHA results shows the peak ground acceleration PGA of 0.25 g on the soil
site corresponding to the ground motion level (10% probability of exceedance for 50 years
exposure time and a return period of 475 years.
71.5
34.4
72.6
33.9
33.4
Figure 1.3: PGA Map in 3D view for the site of Mansehra for various return periods
(After Naveed Ahmad, 2008)
1.4 Organization of the thesis

The thesis is organized into four chapters;
Chapter 1 summarized the statement of the research along with the literature review of the
previous research papers and maps which highlighted the PSHA studies and their concluded
results that were done on the district Mansehra and its vicinity of the surrounding.
Chapter 2 provides a brief review and description of the Geologic and Tectonic setting of the
NW Himalaya, Pakistan and all the source characterization which is cause of the Seismicity
and Topography. This chapter also have details of the faults, their probability of magnitude,
their geometry, length, mechanism of faulting, rupturing segments and its scenarios of
rupturing. Moreover it also have summarized b-value and Histograms.
Chapter 3 provides summarized introduction to the horizontal ground motion prediction

equations of NGA West-2 Models presented by different researcher that are used in the
ground motion characterization.
Chapter 4 presents the Hazard Maps of the NW Himalaya, Pakistan for the 475-Year return
period and 2475-Year return period based on the PGA values. This chapter also provides the
hazard curves and the deaggregation of the curves for the selected site in the NW Himalaya,
Pakistan. The summary and discussion of the thesis is provided at the end of this chapter.
CHAPTER 2
SEISMIC SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION
2.1 GEOLOGIC AND TECTONIC SETTING
Geographically Pakistan is located to the North-East of the equator having latitudes 24⁰ N to
37⁰ N and longitudes 60⁰ E to 75⁰ E (Ahmad, 2006). The study is conducted in part of NW
Himalaya, Pakistan which is most active region and has been suffered from lot earthquake
events which caused tremendous destruction in the past decades.
The current geologic settings of the Indian plate and Eurasian plate of Pakistan are resulted
from the drifting that caused Supercontinent Gondwanaland to split about 130 (Ma) ago, then
in the middle Cretaceous (80 Ma) the Indian plate started movement Eurasian plate and away
from Madagascar. As result the Newtethyenocean which was lying between the Indian plate
in the south and Asian plate in the north started shrinking which give rise to the drifting and
convergent take place which result the formation of Kohistan Island Arc during the Jurassic
to Cretaceous (Treloar & Izatt, 1993). Thus this collisional boundary between Eurasian plate
and Kohistan Island Arc is referred to as the (MKT) Main Karakorum Thrust (Tahirkheli,
1979). The collisional event began at 50-55 Ma (Powell, 1979; Patriate & Achache, 1984)
which is also supported by the fact that the Indian plate was rapidly drifting at a rate of 130-
150 millimeter per year northwards and collided with the Eurasian plate and current
movement is with slower rate of 40-60 millimeter per year (Powell, 1979).Once the Kohistan
Island Arc was formed and docked onto the Eurasian plate then the collision between the
Kohistan Island Arc and Indian Plate occurred during the Eocene time and it result the
formation of Himalayas (Molnar & Tapponier, 1975). The boundary between Indian plate
and Kohistan Island Arc is marked by the (MMT) Main Mantle Thrust (Tahirkheli, 1979).
Figure 2.1: Indian-Eurasia collision and drifting history (After
Pierre Dezes, 1999)
Tectonically Pakistan is located in the Himalayan zone where it is experiancing both the
compressional and transpressional forces due to the complex convergent plate boundary. As
in the northern Pakistan the collision of the Indian-Eurassian plates has taken place and is
currently ongoing with the rate of 3.7 cm/yr near 73 ⁰ longitude east so hence it give rise to
the compressional forces and resulted the formation of Himalayan mountain range (Molnar &
Topponnier, 1975). This collision have deformed a lot of area by causing the folding and
thrusting of the upper crustal layers in the form of Main Karakoram Thrust, Main Mantle
Crust, Main Boundary Thrust and Salt Range Thrust along the northern collision boundary
(Seeber & Armbruster, 1979).
Along the western boundary of the Indo-Pak plate we have the Transpressional forces which
caused the major deformation along the 800-900 km long Chaman Transform Fault Zone at
the rate of 19-24 mm/yr (Lawrence & Yeasts, 1979).
The Chaman fault zone is categerized into three left lateral faults known as Chaman fault,
Ghazaband fault, Ornach-Nal fault. Chaman fault zone produced four strike-slip earthquakes
(M > 6): the 1505 event at the west of Kabul (Oldham, 1883; Lawrence et al., 1992;
Ambraseys & Bilham, 2003); 1892 Mw =6.5 event near Chaman (Ambraseys & Bilham,
2003); 1975 Ms = 6.7 event on the south of Chaman (Lawrence & Yeats, 1979; Engdahl &
Villase˜nor, 2002), and 1978 Mw = 6.1 earthquake on the north of Naushki (Yeats et al.,
1979; Engdahl & Villase˜nor, 2002)
Soba n
Bir PKK
Figure 2.2: Geologic Map of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis with major structures of the
region (After M. Qasim et al., 2014)
2.2 ACTIVE FAULTS GEOMETRY AND SEGMENTATION MODELS
During the seismic source charaterization for any area the development of the fault
segmentation models for that particular area must be defined for the PSHA. For the NW
Himalayas, Pakistan different researcher established different geometriess and segmentation
models based on their own approch among which Monalisa is most popular for seismic
studies. NW part of Pakistani Himalaya has complex tectonic features dominated by reverse
and thrust faults. Thakot and Puran faults which are merged into MMT above while MBT is
distributed throughout in different segments. Panjal thrust runs parallel with MBT in East-
West direction while Mansehra and Oghi thrust forms synclinal shape between Thakot and
Panjal thrust. HFT runs in direction of MBT where it meets with the Muzafarabad fault at
western margin of Hazara-Kashmir syntaix (Monalisa et al., 2007).
Figure 2.3: Critical tectonic feature near site of Mansehra (After

Monalisa, 2014)
The Hazara region in the NW Himalaya, Pakistan is bounded by reverse and thrust faults
among which MBT and Panjal thrust are dominant. Mansehra and Oghi Thrust emerges from
a single source Panjal thrust while Kashmir thrust, Garhi-Batagram thrust, and Rawlakot-
Besham thrust forms a series of three parallel thrust (Talal Iqbal et al., 2008).
Figure 2.4: Map showing seismogenic structures and instrumental

seismicity of the study area since 1900 (After Talal Iqbal et al., 2008)
2.3 SEISMIC SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION OF THE STUDY AREA
2.3.1 Fault Rupture Length
The length of the fault rupture is extracted from the map prepared from the already published
maps in the different research papers, thesis, projects, geologic and tectonic maps of the NW
Himalaya. The fault rupture may be primary rupture which is being related to tectonic rupture
during which the fault rupture plane intersects the ground surface or secondary rupture which
includes fractures formed by ground shaking, fractures and faults related to the landslides.
Discontinues surface faults are mapped beyond the ends of continuous surface traces are
considered part of tectonic surface fault ruptures and are included in the calculation of rupture
length. The rupturing along the fault may be in form of different scenarios having different
segments, and different lengths followed by particular fault.
Figure 2.5: Map showing seismogenic structures of the study area in NW

Himalaya, Pakistan
2.3.2 Fault Width
Usually the fault width is the down dip rupture which is mostly taken as the hypotheneous the
direction opposite to the base and perpendicular distance to the source. Fault width is
estimated from the depth distribution of aftershocks and those areas where the depth
distribution of aftershocks are unknown so in those areas the faults width are estimated from
the depth (thickness) of the seismogenic zone or depth of the hypocenter and assumed the dip
of the fault plane. Estimate of fault width based on hypo central depth of the main shock or
width of the seismogenic zone are used to calculate rupture area only for earthquakes for
which detailed information on regional seismicity is available, or for which detailed studies
of the hypo central depth and focal mechanism have been performed (Sibson, 1987).
Fault width is equaled to the seismogenic depth divided by sin of dip angle of that fault.
(Saeed Zaman et al., 2012)
Seismogenic dept h
Width =
sin ∅ (dip angle)
Seismogenic depth is determined for all the faults from the earthquake catalogue downloaded
from website International Seismological Center (ISC) (http://www.isc.ac.uk) which is taken
as average 30km. The dip angle for each fault is taken from the already published research
papers.
2.3.3 Moment Magnitude:

Studies of worldwide earthquakes have shown that faults do not rupture over their entire
lengths during an individual event. Instead, individual fault segments with physically
controlled boundaries rupture repeatedly (Schwartz & Coppersmith 1986; Schwartz 1988).
Fault rupture length has often been used to estimate earthquake magnitude by considering
maximum single rupture segment along the fault (Wells & Coppersmith, 1994). Empirical
relationships for estimation of maximum credible earthquake based on statistical analyses of
worldwide historical earthquake data are developed by Wells & Coppersmith, 1994 as
Reverse Fault Mw=5.00+1.22 log L
In Strike Slip Fault Mw=5.16+1.12 log L
Normal Fault Mw=4.86+1.32 log L
this study the most reliable method used for assigning the moment magnitude (Mw) or the
Table 2.1: Empirical Relationship of the maximum credible earthquake with
respect to its maximum rupturing segment (Wells & Coppersmith, 1994)
maximum earthquake potential magnitude of the fault is the relationship developed by (Wells
& Coppersmith, 1994).The analysis of recorded instrumental seismicity of the region shows
that the thrust fault systems are mainly responsible for the significant seismic events. The
maximum credible earthquake on seismogenic faults can be estimated through the study of
geology and physical nature of seismogenic faults.
2.3.4 Earthquake Catalogue:

For the characterization of seismicity parameters of the study area an earthquake catalogue
was download from International Seismological Center (ISC) (http://www.isc.ac.uk) covering
Latitude 33.50⁰ - 35.50⁰ North to South and Longitude 71.50⁰ - 74.50⁰ East to West
respectively. This catalogue consists of different magnitude scales like Mw, surface wave
magnitude (Ms), body wave magnitude (Mb), and local magnitude (ML). Therefore, the
catalogue is checked for the uniformity of magnitude scales. Majority of the events are
reported in Mb followed by Mw, Ml, Ms. Thus, Mb is selected as primary magnitude type
followed by other magnitude scales. The relationship between Mb and Ml magnitude scales
showed that they have a linear relation and can be used interchangeably to compute
seismicity parameters.
Figure 2.6: Seismicity distribution of earthquakes along the faults in NW Himalaya,

Pakistan, Yellow star shows major events with magnitude Mb > 5.7
The catalogue download from the ISC was covering almost 58470 events from 1905 to 2020
having magnitude ranges from 1 up to 8.2 but due to incorporation of unnecessary data the
catalogue was checked for the uniform data of seismicity and final data was established
which have 1204 events that was reported by the ISC from year 1965 to 2019 having range of
magnitude of 3.2 to 6.9 Mb scale data that is almost covering the study area in NW Himalaya.
The red colour in figure 2.6 show the events with shallow depth while yellow shows
intermediate depth and the blue shows the deeper events, on other hand the size legend
shows that the small size have less magnitude while larger size have high magnitude.
The depth histogram, magnitude histogram and the time histogram of the catalogue of the
study area shown in figure 2.7 to figure 2.9 were constructed with ZMAP package in order to
check the homogeneity of the catalogue for the accuracy of the results. From the depth
histogram of the study area shown in figure 2.7 we assumed that majority of the earthquake
has been occurred in the shallow zone of the crust which have the depth of 20 to 25 km and
thus this depth was also used in the logic tree for the calculation of the hazard in the study
area. The Magnitude histogram constructed from earthquake catalogue of the study area
shown in figure 2.8 we suggests that this area have generated up to thousand and above
earthquakes amongst which large number of events has been generated with the magnitude
ranges from Mb= 3.6 - 4.7. From Time histograms of the seismicity catalogue in figure 2.9
we assumed and suggests that in the study area the majority of the earthquake events has been
occurred in the time period of 2002 to 2008 among which earthquake of October 08, 2005
Muzafarabad was the most disastrous having the Magnitude, Mb= 6.7 and have damage huge
infrastructure and caused hundreds of death and injuries.
Figure 2.7: Magnitude versus Depth Histogram

Figure 2.8: Magnitude versus No. of earthquakes Histogram
Figure 2.9: Time versus No. of earthquakes Histogram
2.3.5 b-value
The b-value is the relation of the exponential recurrence model which is estimated in the form
of slope (Byungmin Kim, 2012). Thus the b-value can calculated for the earthquakes events
that have been taken place at particular time period. It can be calculated by different methods
based on the interest of researcher and the available data of the particular site. In this study
the b-value was calculated on two different methods using the software package Zmap
mentioned as;
a) Least square (LS) method

b) Maximum Likelihood (ML) method (Wiecher 1980)
Both the method was used for the purpose to get the average b-values of the study site for the
Period from 1905 to 2020. The result was displayed in the form of Regression lines in the
both cases which was seen that it was fit to the data throughout the magnitude range. The LS
method in figure 2.9 shows that the line was fit to the data by Cumulative earthquake of Mc>
3.9 and shows the b-value of 0.987 on other hand applying the ML method the regression line
in figure 2.10 shows that it is best fit to the data for the cumulative earthquake of magnitude
Mc > 3.9 and shows the b-value of 0.993. Thus it is concluded that on the both cases that the
b-value calculated for the NW part of Himalaya was fit to the earthquake data following the
magnitude Mc > 3.9 and b-value 0.9 which was the average regression line for the seismicity
of the site. This b-value range from 0.8 to 0.9 does not affect the PGA values therefore
(Byungmin Kim, 2012) used b-value of 0.8 which was assigned to all the faults distributed in
NW of Pakistan, (Monalisa et al., 2008) have given b-value of 0.95 with magnitude Mo of
4.0to the Swat-Astore Seismic zone. Thus b-value of 0.9 was assigned for all the faults in
this study that are responsible for generating earthquakes of different magnitudes in the NW
Himalaya, Pakistan.
Figure 2.10.a: b-value using Least Figure 2.10.b: b-value using

Square Method Maximum Likelihood Method
2.3.6 Fault Segment
The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities ( WGCEP-2003) defined the
fault segment as the shortest fault section that is capable to produce larger earthquakes by
rupturing the repeatedly due to Kinematic an Dynamatic sources either changes in strike,
diping, length, seismicity, slip rates etc. Those faults segment or segments which ruptures
individually or simultaneously with the adjacent segment which have the ability to produce
earthquake of certain magnitude is known as the rupture source. In order to unnderstand this
phenomena let supposed we have Puran Fault which have ruptured in geological past time
having two segments named as Segment-1 and Segment-2. Now to estimates the scenarios for
segments of Puran Fault we assumed three scenarios, either Segment-1 ruptures alone, either
Segment-2 ruptures alone or both the Segments 1 and 2 ruptures simultaneously at same
geologic time. Based on these scenarios of the rupturing an equal weights are given to each
fault source for the purpose of balancing the ruptures.
Faults Segments Rupturing Scenarios

1. Puran Fault Segment-1 1.
2. Puran Fault Segment-2 2.
3. Puran Fault Segment-1-2 3.
Figure 2.11: The Fault Segmentation (left hand side) and Rupturing Scenarios (right hand side)
presented in this thesis
Faults Rupture Fault Dip Slip Length SD b- Mmax (Mw)
Scenario Type (⁰) Rate ‘L’ value
‘RS’ ‘FT’ Mm/yr 0.25 0.5 0.25
MMT Main 1 F1 R 30 2.97 148 30 0.98 7.20 7.43 7.66
MMT Main 2 F1 R 30 4.34 92 30 0.98 6.97 7.20 7.43
MMT Splay 1 F1 R 30 1.36 68 30 0.98 6.82 7.05 7.28
MBT Main F1 SS 90 4.25 88 30 0.98 6.95 7.18 7.41
MBT Splay 1 F1 SS 90 4.25 40 30 0.98 6.56 6.79 7.02
MBT Splay 2 F1 R 30 4.25 100 30 0.98 7.01 7.24 7.47
MBT Splay 3 F1 R 30 0.87 69 30 0.98 6.83 7.06 7.29
MBT Splay 4 F1 R 30 1.98 74 30 0.98 6.86 7.09 7.32
F2 R 30 1.98 82 30 0.98 6.91 7.14 7.37
F1-F2 R 30 1.98 157 30 0.98 7.23 7.46 7.69
MBT Splay 5 F1 R 30 0.39 31 30 0.98 6.44 6.67 6.90
MBT Splay 6 F1 R 30 0.98 54 30 0.98 6.71 6.94 7.17
F1 R 30 0.98 23 30 0.98 6.31 6.54 6.77
F1 R 30 0.98 77 30 0.98 6.88 7.11 7.34
Panjal Thrust F1 R 30 2.46 64 30 0.98 7.02 7.25 7.48
Puran Fault F1 R 90 1.31 78 30 0.98 6.88 7.11 7.34
F2 R 90 1.31 37 30 0.98 6.48 6.71 6.94
F1-F2 R 90 1.31 115 30 0.98 7.07 7.30 7.63
Oghi Thrust F1 R 30 0.73 52 30 0.98 6.68 6.91 7.14
Mansehra Thrust F1 R 30 0.68 53 30 0.98 7.13 7.36 7.59
Kotli Thrust F1 R 30 0.83 51 30 0.98 6.70 6.93 6.70
Thakot Fault F1 SS 90 0.8 92 30 0.98 6.69 6.92 7.15
HFT F1 R 60 2.39 57 30 0.98 6.74 6.97 7.20
Table 2.2: Seismic source parameters used in this studies. For NW Himalaya, Pakistan the
Mmax values are calculated using relation of (Wells & Coppersmith 1994). The weights for
each parameter in the seismic source characterization (SSC) logic tree are provided in the
brackets. Abbreviations are F.S.: Fault system; F: fault segment; L: Length; SD: Seismogenic
Depth; FT: Fault type; RS: Rupture scenario; SR: Slip rate
2.4 SENSITIVITY OF THE SEISMIC SOURCE
The distribution of fault system in the NW part of Pakistani Himalaya was modified in the
Global Mapper software Package by utilizing the background knowledge about the faults
from already published fault maps for the NW Himalaya by different researches (Monalisa et
al., 2014), (Naveed Ahmad, 2008), (Talal Iqbal et al., 2008), (Syed Kazmi Mahdi, 2010),
(M.P. Searle & M. Asif). The modification consists of the rupture of the MMT main faults in
two segments rather than long rupture at once, the MMT Main 1 have been ruptured with
the MMT Splay 1 having less slip rate as compared to MMT Mainn 2 fault. Puran fault also
ruptured in two segments rather than long single rupture. Oghi thrust, Mansehra thrust, Kotli
fault, are rupture in the same way as mentioned by Monalisa, only their rupturing length is
changed which is more than mentioned in papers. Panjal thrust splay1 which rupture parallel
to the MBT splay 2. HFT which is also known as Balakot-Bagh fault rupture in the direction
of Kotli fault having complex rupturing scenario rather than straight rupturing. The ruturing
scenario of MBT is more complex and having different Splays and different segments. MBT
main fault and MBT Splay 1 ruptures North-South direction where as its Splay 2 runs
parallel to Panjal thrust splay 1 and MBT Splay 3, Splay 4, Splay 5, Splay 6 runs East-West
directions and rupture in the form of roots of trees.
Figure 2.12: Fault Map of the study area in the NW Himalaya, Pakistan
with slip rate assigned to each fault and its splays
2.4.1 Main Mantle Thrust (MMT)
MMT is the regional thrust which displays the collisional boundary between the Kohistan
Island Arc and the Indian plate having the extension from Ladakh to northern Pakistan and
eastern Afghanistan which have finally closed(Kohistan Island Arc and the Indian Plate)
about 50-55 Ma (Tahirkheli, 1979; Gansser, 1981; Chaudhry et al., 1983; Cowrd
1986).MMT fault can be defined as the series of faults which have different age and different
tectonic history and have a complex structure which occupy the northern margin of Indian
plate in Pakistan (J.A. Dipietro et al, 1995). The uplifting of the MMT in Besham is not a
single phenomena but it has taken place with the imbrications of several thrust (Coward &
Butler, 1985).
The MMT in the NW Himalaya has three segments, MMT Main-1 which have total length
approximately 148 Km and slip rate of 2.9 mm/yr, MMT Main-2 having length about 92 Km
with the slip rate 4.34 and MMT Splay 1 which runs parallel to the MMT Main-1 and having
the lateral extension of about 68 Km with slip rate 1.36 mm/yr. The MMT have dome
shaped around the Besham area which runs through Jijal area where we have the break in the
form of Kohistan fault along continuity of MMT and throughout the entire Thrust we have
the Reverse mechanism of faulting.
Figure 2.13: MMT Rupture System with the assigned slip rate
2.4.2 Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)
The MBT is the youngest main frontal thrust of the Himalayan range, which runs about 2500
km which have rooted detachments and capable of generating major earthquakes like
October 08, 2005, Kangra (1905), Bihar (1934),Asam (1897). The Mansehra, Balakot,
Muzafarabad, Islamabad are amongst the most critical cities which are under the threat of
MBT. The MBT continues NW which runs westward at HKS and bends southward towards
Balakot at the dip off 50 degree (Kazmi & Jan, 1997; Kazim Mahdi, 2010). After the major
deformation along the MMT and MCT have taken place and reached to its high peak due to
crustal shortening then all of these forces have been transferred to the MBT (Leford, 1975;
Bird, 1978).
The MBT in the study region has different splays among which MBT Main has length 88 Km
with slip rate 4.25 mm/yr, MBT Splay 1 having length of 40 km and slip rate 4.35 mm/yr
both having Strike-slip mechanism, MBT Splay 2 having length of 100 km with 4.25 mm/yr
rate, MBT Splay 3, Splay 4, Splay 5, Splay 6 runs parallel to each other. MBT Splay 3 has
length 69 km with slip rate 0.87 mm/yr, Splay 4 has further two segments, Segment 1 and
Segment 2 having length 74 km and 82 km with slip rate 1.98 mm/yr respectively. MBT
Splay 5 has length of km with slip rate 0.39 mm/yr, MBT Splay 6 have further two segment,
Segment 1 and Segment 2 having length of 54 km and 23 km with slip rate of 0.98 mm/yr
respectively.
Figure 2.14: MBT Rupture System with the assigned slip rate
2.4.3 Panjal Thrust (PT):
The Panjal Thrust is the western extension of the Main Central Thrust (MCT) in the NW
Himalaya which runs parallel to the Main boundary Thrust (MBT) at Hazara Kashmir
Syntaxis (HKS) apex. It is also proposed that last known location of the Main Central Thrust
is the south of Kashmir basin which is connecting point of the MCT and Panjal thrust so
both of the faults are equivalent (Honegager et al, 1982; Frank et al, 1997; Searle, 1991). The
Panjal thrust is the reverse vertical dipping from 45 degree to 75 degree which are deformed
in well tighted isoclinals folds where it merges with the Muree fault towards the north of
Balakot (J.A.Calkins and T.E.Offield, 1975).
According to our study the Panjal thrust is located at the apex of Hazara-Kashmir syntaxis
where it have the dipping angle of 30 degree towards north. Panjal Thrust distributed at
eastern side of the HKS it is named as the Panjal Thrust Splay-1 having length 102 km and
slip rate 2.46 mm/yr with the reverse mechanism of faulting.
Figure 2.15: Panjal Thrust Rupture System with the assigned slip
rate
2.4.4 The Thakot Fault
Thakot Fault have the strike slip movement which is distributed between the MMT and
Panjal thrust. This fault dies out into a series of shear zones and faults that are well displayed
in the eastern side of Thakot. The Thakot Fault juxtaposes the Besham Nappe sequence
against the Hazara Nappe which has the semi-brittle movements (Kazmi and Jan, 1997). The
metamorphic discontinuity across the Thakot fault continues towards south and runs towards
the western edge of Tarbela Dam (Treloar et al., 1989).
Thakot fault in the current thesis is a strike slip faults that have the length of 92 Km which
have the slip rate of 0.8 mm/yr running from North-South direction. We suggest that this fault
have strike slip mechanism and it is also nearest to study area therefore it can be more
destructive and can caused large magnitude events in the future.
Figure 2.16: Thakot fault Rupture System with the assigned slip rate
2.4.5 Mansehra Thrust Structure
This is an arc shaped small active fault structure present in the south of Mansehra Basin
which form the southern boundary of Hazara Nappe marked as the floor of large duplex
structure of Hazara Thrust (Kazmi & Jan, 1997). Mansehra thrust is boundary between the
Internal and External units of the Indian plate which shows that this Mansehra thrust was
once the part and linking faults of the Eastern Himalayas which takes a turn of 90 degree
across Indus River (Coward et al., 1988).
The Mansehra thrust in the study area have a syncline structure which have the length of 53
Km and slip rate 0.68 mm/yr following the reverse mechanism of faulting. This fault has
been deformed in the single segment which is dipping towards north.
Figure 2.17: Mansehra Thrust Rupture System with the assigned slip rate
2.4.6 Oghi Fault Structure:
The Oghi Fault structure strikes northwest to southeast direction and
is sited near the Oghi Fort in Mansehra district. The nearest surface trace of Oghi Fault is
about 30km west of Balakot city which marks the base of the ductile deformation having
folded outcrop (Coward et al., 1986).
The Oghi thrust located in the Study area district Mansehra which is local fault having the
length of 52 Km. This thrust is single segmented their fore the rupturing scenario is not
complicated which dip towards North with the slip rate 0.7 mm/yr.
Figure 2.18: Oghi Thrust Rupture System with the assigned slip rate
2.4.7 Puran fault
Puran fault is located between the MMT Main fault and Panjal Thrust. Puran fault is the
obligue left lateral shear zone which is marks as the truncation between the Mohmand-swat
sequences (Biag et al., 1989); DiPietro et al., 1993).. This fault was named as the Alpurai
Thrust by (Treloar et al., 1989).
Puran Fault located in the study area is the reverse fault stretching North-South direction.
This fault have two segments named as Puran Fault-1 having length of 78 km with slip rate
1.31 mm/yr while other segment is Puran Fault-2 having length 37 km with the slip rate 1.31
mm/yr. we suggests that this fault is distributed from the MMT at the antiformal shape near
Besham and runs south-western side through near Tarbela dam. This fault can also produce
the large magnitude earthquake in future which is threat to Mansehra as well as Tarbela dam.
Figure 2.19: Puran Fault Rupture System with the assigned slip rate
2.4.8 Kotli Fault
Kotli fault is located between the Himalayan Frontal Thrust and MBT Main segment which
follows the reverse mechanism having the total length of 51 Km which dips with the rate of
0.83 mm/yr. We suggest that this fault can also generate earthquake of sufficient magnitude
in the future which may be disastrous for the site.
Figure 2.20: Kotli Rupture System with the assigned slip rate
2.4.9 Himalayan Frontal Thrust
HFT is the North-Western part of the Pakistani Himalayas which is also known as
Muzafarabad Fault which extends southeast through Jhelum valley and lie along the western
limb of the Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis (Baig & Lawerance, 1987; Nakata et al, 1991). It is
reverse fault which is well exposed at the Muzafarabad. This fault was reactivated during the
Earthquake of Kashmir, 2005 which is about 120 Km which has caused a lot of destruction
and mass movements at its hanging wall (Avouac et al., 2006; Baig, 2006; Kanedo et al.,
2008).
HFT in the study area has reverse mechanism which has the length of about 57 km and is
now active fault which have a slip rate of 2.39 mm/yr .We suggest that this fault is a single
segmented fault which is cable to generate large magnitude earthquakes in the future due to it
again reactivation after the Kashmir earthquake October, 2005.
Figure 2.21: HFT Rupture System with the assigned slip rate
CHAPTER3
GROUND MOTION PREDICTION EQUATIONS
For the prediction of strong ground motion parameters and associated uncertainty based on
the parameters such as magnitude, source-to-site distance, local soil conditions, fault
mechanism, etc, Attenuation Relations or Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are
utilized in this study. As compared to earthquake engineering applications like seismic
analysis and design of structures, social and financial loss estimation, development of
regional seismic hazard maps for use in building codes etc GMPEs are mostly used in
probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analysis. Regional and global ground motion
databases resulted development of cluster of global and local GMPEs Models like,
(Abrahamson et al., 2014) ASK14 Model, (Boore et al., 2014) BSSA14 Model, (Campbell &
Bozorgnia, 2014) CB14 Model, (Chiou & Youngs, 2014) CY14 Model. Therefore the strong
and perfect decision is needed for the employment of the GMPEs to use for particular project
of the hazard assessment because resulting design ground motions are strongly dependent on
the chosen GMPEs. Regional GMPEs Models represent the regional tectonic characteristics
because they are derived based on regional databases while the Local GMPEs Models
represent the local faults system due to its smaller and less stable databases. Hence Local
GMPEs may not provide realistic constraints on some important features such as short
distance scaling, style of faulting, and hanging wall effects (Gülerce, 2015). If you add larger
uncertainty due to difference in the magnitude scales of the small magnitude earthquakes the
local GMPEs may not give the accurate results, while global GMPEs have compiled strong
ground motion database and hence decrease the percentage of uncertainty. But one of the
main deflect of global GMPEs is that it do not represent regional characteristics as well as
local models and their applicability for the intended region should be evaluated before
implementing them in the PSHA study (Bommer et al., 2010).
3.1 Regionalization of Global GMPEs
In 2003 the an extensive research project was launched by The Pacific Earthquake
Engineering Research Center (PEER) for the development of the state-of-the-art GMPEs for
shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions which was ended in 2008 by having the
result of publication of the set of peer-reviewed GMPEs which was named as NGA-West1
models. This consists of comprehensive database of strong ground motions recorded
worldwide and was developed for horizontal ground motion component (Power et al., 2008).
With the passage of time the scope of this model was increased and started with using in the
PSHA studies outside California. In order to check this model different researchers like
(Stafford et al., 2008), (Scasserra et al., 2009), (ShojaTaheri et al., 2010), and (Bradley, 2013)
tested NGA-West1 models for the accuracy at different regions like Euro-Mediterranean
Region, Italy, Iran, and New Zealand. The modification of the distance scaling of the NGA-
West1 GMPEs by regressing the model coefficients related to the distance attenuation and the
constant term for PGA, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2 second spectral periods (Scasserra et al., 2009).
3.2 NGA-West2 Ground Motion Prediction Models

During NGA-West1 project different models was developed and researchers start using in the
PSHA studies but with passage of time different issues were faced by the researchers in using
the NGA-West project for the prediction of strong ground motion parameters. To over the
different issues faced by researchers another project was launched in 2011 which was named
as NGA-West 2. During this project actually the older model of the NGA-West1 project was
updated. This project expands the database up to 21332 recordings with magnitude ranging
from Mw=3 to Mw=7.9 and recordings with distance ranging from 0.05 km to 533 km.
The main features which were updated in NGA-West1 are;
 Expansion of the database of NGA-West1 Models for different magnitude events

following small, moderate and larger.
 Development of the new GMPEs for the vertical ground motion data which was
lacking in the NGA-West1 Models and review the horizontal ground motion database.
 To update the damping model which would differentiate between the spectra
predicted by GMPE and spectra developed by the reference data?
 To evaluate the directivity models and their effects on the horizontal ground motion.
The NGA-WEST2 models have different developers which are used in this studies are;
1. ASK14 Model by (Abrahamson et al., 2014)

2. BSSA14 Model by (Boore et al., 2014)
3. CB14 Model by (Campbell & Bozorgnia, 2014)
4. CY14 Model by (Chiou & Youngs, 2014)
Table 3.1: Model Applicability Range of the Four NGA-West 2 GMPEs for Magnitude,
Distance, Vs30, and Spectral Period
NGA-West2 Model ASK14 BSSA14 CB14 CY14
Magnitude (Mw) 3.8-8.5 3.0-8.5 3.3-8.5 (SS) 3.5-8.5 (SS)

(SS,RV)
Mechanism (All) 3.3-7 (NM) 3.3-8.0 (RV) 3.5-8.0
3.3-7.0 (NM) (RV,NM)
Distance (km) 0-300 0-400 0-300 0-300
Vs3 0(m/s) 180-1500 150-1500 150-1500 180-1500
Period Range PGA- PGA-10sec PGA-10sec PGA-10sec

10sec PGV PGV
PGV
The suite of the NGA-West 2 models was found to provide median ground-motion
predictions that agree to within factors of about 1.5 to 2. The biggest differences are realized
for the cases in which the NGA-West 2 database is inadequate, such as for large earthquakes
(Mw=8) at close distances, and for hanging-wall sites located over the rupture plane of
shallow dipping earthquakes. Therefore, ASK14, BSSA14, CB14 and CY14 models are
included in the GMPE logic tree to properly represent the epistemic uncertainty. A brief
summary for each model is provided below.
3.2.1 ASK14 Model (Abrahamson et al., 2014)
In 2008 Abrahamson and his colleague presented (AS08) Model which was based on
database of the NGA-West2 which was updated to (ASK14) Model (Ancheta et al., 2014).
The input parameters for both the AS08 and ASK14 Models are same moreover some
changes were incorporated in ASK14 Model which are,
 Instead of PGA the for non-linear site effects the loading level is based on the spectral
acceleration at the period of interest.
 Source to-site azimuth depends for the distance scaling for hanging wall (HW).
 Based on constraints from numerical simulations the development of the scaling for
the hanging wall effect was also updated.
 Smaller standard deviations at long periods and different from the old model, small
magnitude events (Mw=3) are included in the updated model.
The functional form of ASK14 model is given in equation 3.1
ln Sa(g)=f1(M,Rrup)+ FRV f7(M)+FNf8(M)+ FAsf11(CRjb)+ f5(Sa1180,VS30) +

FHWf4(Rjb,Rrup,RX,W,dip,ZTOR,M)+ f6(ZTOR)+ f10(Z1.0,VS30)+ Reg(VS30,Rrup) 3.1
Where f1 is the basic form of the magnitude and distance dependence for strike slip
earthquakes, f7 and f8 are functions for style of faulting model, f11is aftershock scaling
function, f5 is the site response model using median spectral acceleration on hard rock, f 4 is
hanging wall model, f6 is depth to top of rupture model.Hf10 is the soil depth model.
Regionalization of VS30 is also included in this model.
3.2.2 BSSA14 Model (Boore et al., 2014)

In order to compute medians and standard deviations of average horizontal component of
recorded ground motion amplitudes for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions
the (BA08) Model presented in 2008 was updated into latest version and new version of the
model was established which was named as (BSSA14). Regional variability in source, path
and site effects is considered, however the model does not address directivity effects.
The functional form of the BSSA14 model is given in Equation 3.2 as:
lnY=FE(M, mech)+FP(Rjb,M, region)+FS(VS30,Rjb,M,region,z1) εnσ(M,Rjb,Vs30) 3.2
Where Y represents the natural logarithm of a ground motion, FE is the source function, FP is
the function related with path and FS is the site effect function, εn is the fractional number of
standard deviations of a single predicted value of lnY, σ is the standard deviation; M, mech
and Rjb are the predictor variables.
3.2.3 CB14 Model (Campbell & Bozorgnia, 2014)

In 2014 (CB08) Model developed by Campbell and Bozorgnia in 2008 was modified and
renamed as (CB14). This modification was done for the shallow crustal continental
earthquakes in active tectonic regions in order to estimate the horizontal ground motion.
Another modification was the effect of hanging wall over the rupture plane, small-magnitude
and far-source estimates, and increase in inter-event variability for Mw > 5.5 due to the
inclusion of earthquakes from additional active tectonic regions. Hence it can better
constraints magnitude scaling and attenuation even smalls magnitude events.
The general form of the equation is given below as;
LnY=ln PGA PSA<PGA and T<0.25 s
LnY= fmag+fdis+fflt+fhng+fsite+fsed+fhyp+fdip+fatn 3.3
where fmag is the magnitude term; fdist is the geometric attenuation term; fflt is the style of
faulting term; fhng is the hanging wall term; fsite is the shallow site response term; fsed is the
basin response term; fhypis the hypo central depth term; fdip is the fault dip term and fatn
represents the an elastic attenuation term.
3.2.4 CY14 Model (Chiou & Youngs, 2014)

This model is also the modified form of (CY08) Model which was developed by Chiou and
Youngs in 2008 in order to predict the horizontal ground motion amplitudes for shallow
crustal earthquakes occurring in the active tectonic regions and then the modified in 2014 and
model was named as (CY14). For the magnitude Mw>7 the prediction of the median ground
motion values by both the CY08 and CY14 are same however for magnitude Mw<5 the
results are slightly lower. The modification in new model includes the effects of faulting
style, function of the hanging wall, scaling with the depth to top of rupture, scaling with
sediment thickness, and the inclusion of additional terms for the effects of fault dip and
rupture directivity. In addition, regional differences in far source (80 km < RRUP ≤ 500 km)
distance attenuation and site effects between California and other active tectonic regions are
included.
CHAPTER 4
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS RESULTS AND

CONCLUSIONS
4.1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) Methodology and Software
PSHA is the methodology that is able to compute the hazard at any particular location by
calculating the level of ground motion for corresponding probability of exceedance. It
provides a framework regarding the size, location and rate of recurrence earthquake (Cornell,
1968).
To evaluate the sensitivity of the seismic hazard in the region of the NW Himalaya, Pakistan
the PGA maps for the 475-Year return period and 2475-Year return period are developed
using the Cornell-McGuire PSHA approach (Cornell, 1968; McGuire, 2004). The hazard in
term of PGA values was calculated along the 100 grid points taken in the global mapper and
then hazard maps was constructed based on these PGA values.
The numerical integration of the hazard integral shown in equation 4.1 is performed using the
computer software HAZ45 (Hale et al., 2018).
v (A>z)=Nmin. ∫M∫R ∫€ fM(M)fR(M,R)fε(ε)P(A>z M,R, €) ×dM× dR× dε 4.1
In Equation 4.1, M represents the earthquake magnitude; R is the distance between the source
and the site, Nmin is the annual rate of earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to
the minimum magnitude, fM(M) and fR(M,R) are the probability density functions for the
magnitude and distance, ε is the number of standard deviations above or below the median,
fε(ε) is the probability density function for the epsilon (given by a standard normal
distribution), and P(A>z | M, R, ε) is either 0 or 1. In this equation, P(A >z|M, R, ε) selects
those scenarios and ground motion combinations that lead to ground motions greater than the
test level z.
4.2 Seismic Hazard Maps for the NW Himalaya, Pakistan
Seismic hazard maps was prepared for the part of North-Western Himalaya, Pakistan based
on the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for the spectral periods of T=0.02 corresponding to
return periods of 475 (10% chance of exceedance at 50 years) and 2474 (2% chance of
exceedance at 500 years). For the preparation of the Seismic hazard maps 100 grid points
(0.25⁰ to 0.25⁰) are marked throughout the study area and then the PSHA analysis is
performed at each point by calculating the PGA at each point with the help of Computer
application named as Hazard-45 which runs all the scenarios of the faults and their segments
along with the rupturing scenarios and PGA values was calculated at each grid point in
Figure 4.1 based on which the hazard maps for return period of 500 year and 2500 year was
prepared in the Global Mapper software package as seen in Figure 4.2 and 4.3 respectively.
Figure 4.1: Location of the Grid of Points at which the PSHA was performed with
respect to the Seismic Sources
The zonation of the hazard level for 475-Year return period in term of PGA for T=0.2
second and VS30=760 m/s is shown in the figure 4.2 in which reddish colour shows zone of
high hazard while blue colour shows low hazard zone ranges from PGA value 0.01g for low
hazard zone and 0.98g for high hazard zone. Hence in the study region Muzafarabad lies in
the highest hazard zone where we have the availability of mostly active faults like MBT and
its splays and Panjal thrust.
Figure 4.2: Hazard Map Contours of 475-Year Return Period PGA for the part of
NW Himalayas, Pakistan
The zonation of the hazard level for 2475-Year return period in term of PGA for T=0.2
second and VS30=760 m/s is shown in the figure 4.3 in which reddish colour shows zone of
high hazard while blue colour shows low hazard zone ranges from PGA value 0.01g for low
hazard zone and 1.98g for high hazard zone. Hence in the study region Muzafarabad and
Mansehra lies in the highest hazard zone where we have the availability of mostly active
faults like MBT and its splays, Mansehra Thrust, Oghi Thrust and Panjal thrust. We suggest
that Muzafarabad and Mansehra are the most hazardous cities having peak ground
acceleration of 1.25g for the 2475-Year return period.
Figure 4.3: Hazard Map Contours of 2475-Year Return Period PGA for the part of
NW Himalayas, Pakistan
4.3 PSHA Results
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment was conducted for part of the North-Western
Himalayan Thrust System, Pakistan the results of which are presented in form of PGA hazard
map. Based on the PGA value the hazard curves are presented the hazard curves give us the
complete merged effects of the faults in terms of all the corresponding magnitudes and
distance on the probability of the exceeding the specified ground motion level in terms of
Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). From these hazard curves we can identify and guess about
the intensity of the hazard in term of PGA therefore for the complete analysis about the
hazard that which event is more important for the hazard at specific ground motion level and
can caused the destruction up to which intensity, the process named as deaggregation by
(Bazzurro and Cornel, 1999) is used which broke down the analyzed hazard curve into
different components regarding their magnitude of occurrences at different rupturing
scenarios and distance of a particular site to the particular source. The deaggregation of the
hazard was conducted for 6 locations denoted by yellow points in figure 4.4 which are
located in the NW Himalayas Pakistan including the cities Mansehra, Batagram,
Muzafarabad, Tarbela Dam, Abbotabad, Islamabad The results of the PSHA study are
presented in terms of PGA, T=0.2 second and VS30=760 m/s as shown in figures respectively.
Figure 4.4: Location of the study area and PSHA conducted sites in NW
Himalaya, Pakistan
Amongst different scenarios of the rupturing the dominating scenario is always same for
different hazard levels and where the hazard level increase, then the percentage of
contribution of the dominating scenario to the total hazard increases (Akin, 2016).
For the site of Muzafarabad the hazard curve in shown in figure 4.5 which shows that this
city has the highest hazard as compared to other site because of its geographic location which
is so closed to the active faults having high slip rates.
The deaggregation of the hazard curves shows that Muzafarabad has the most dominating
scenario that has magnitude range of 7.00-7.50 and the distance range of 0.0 – 5.0 km
following by other scenario having same magnitude range of 7.0 – 7.5 and distance range of
15 – 20 km (Figure 4.6 and Figure 4.7).
Figure 4.5: Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Muzafarabad

Figure 4.6: Deaggregation for Muzafarabad for 10% Probability of Exceedance
in 50 Years (475 Year Return Period) Hazard Level (Vs30=760m/s, PGA)
Figure 4.7: Deaggregation for Muzafarabad for 2% Probability of Exceedance

For the site of Mansehra the hazard curve shown in figure 4.8 shows that this site is also
hazardous like Muzafarabad. The geographic location of this site has most contribution in its
hazard which is surrounded by active faults like MBT to east, Mansehra thrust to south Oghi
Thrust to north and Thakot fault to west.
The deaggregation of the hazard curves shows that Mansehra has the most dominating
scenario having magnitude range of 6.50 - 7.00 and the distance range of 10-15 km following
by the second dominating scenario that has the magnitude range of 7.00 - 7.50 and the
distance range of 5.0 – 10 km (Figure 4.9 and Figure 4.10).
Figure 4.8: Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Mansehra
Figure 4.9: Deaggregation for Mansehra for 10% Probability of Exceedance

Figure 4.10: Deaggregation for Mansehra for 2% Probability of Exceedance
in 50 Years (2 475 Year Return Period) Hazard Level (Vs30=760m/s, PGA)
For Batagram site the hazard curve shown in figure 4.11 shows that this site is comparatively
less hazardous among other site. Although regional thrust like MMT and Panjal thrust is
close to the site but due to its annual slip rate and previous recorded seismicity its shows less
hazard.
The deaggregation of the hazard curve indicates that dominating scenario for the Batagram
has the magnitude range of 7.00 - 7.50 and the distance range of 20-30 km which is the most
dominating while the second most dominating scenario for the same site has the same
magnitude range of 7.00- 7.50 while the distance range change that is of 15-20 km (Figure
4.12 and Figure 4.13).
Figure 4.11: Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Batagram
Figure 4.12: Deaggregation for Batagram for 10% Probability of Exceedance

Figure 4.13: Deaggregation for Batagram for 2% Probability of Exceedance
For Abbotabad site the hazard curve shown in figure 4.14 indicate that this site is next to
Mansehra regarding hazard. Although the site is close to the fault splays of MBT which is
hazardous and has chances of sufficient seismicity.
The deaggregation of the hazard curve shows that the site has dominating scenario of
magnitude of 6.50 – 7.00 and the distance range of 0.0 – 5.0 km followed by the scenario
having magnitude range of 7.00 – 7.50 and the same distance range of 0.0 – 5.0 km (Figure
4.15 and Figure 4.16).
Figure 4.14: Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Abbotabad
Figure 4.15: Deaggregation for Abbotabad for 10% Probability of Exceedance

Figure 4.16: Deaggregation for Abbotabad for 2% Probability of Exceedance
For the site of Islamabad the hazard curve in figure 4.17 shows that this site has very less
chances of hazard regarding earthquake due to its location which for from most of active
faults. Although the site is close to splays of MBT but it has less slip rate which caused less
seismicity in the region.
The deaggregation of the hazard curve indicates that dominating scenario that has the
magnitude range of 7.00 – 7.50 and the distance range of 10 – 15 km followed by the other
scenario having magnitude range of 6.50 - 7.00 and same distance range of 10 -15 km
(Figure 4.18 and Figure 4.19).
Figure 4.17: Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Islamabad
Figure 4.18: Deaggregation for Islamabad for 10% Probability of Exceedance

Figure 4.19: Deaggregation for Islamabad for 2% Probability of Exceedance
For the Tarbela Dam site the hazard curve in figure 4.20 shows that this site is also expected
to be hazardous due to its close location which is bounded by two faults Thakot fault and
Puran fault lying on both adjacent sides of Tarbela Dam.
The deaggregation curve indicates that Tarbela Dam holds the dominating scenario that has
magnitude range of 7.0 – 7.5 and the distance range of 5.0 – 10 km following by second
dominating scenario having magnitude range of 7.5-8.0 and the distance range of same 5.0 –
10 km (Figure 4.21 and Figure 4.22).
Figure 4.20: Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Tarbela Dam
Figure 4.21: Deaggregation for Tarbela Dam for 10% Probability of Exceedance
Figure 4.22: Deaggregation for Tarbela Dam for 2% Probability of Exceedance
Comparatively hazard curves of important sites in the NW Himalayas, Pakistan Figure 4.23
which give us the complete merged effects of the faults in terms of all the corresponding
magnitudes and distance on the probability of the exceeding the specified ground motion
level in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). From the observation the highest level of
hazard is observed in the district Muzafarabad, since this city is the closest city to the active
faults as compared to other cities, also this city is bounded by the active faults which have
high slip rates. District Mansehra and district Batagram is also close to the faults, therefore
district Mansehra is in the vicinity of second most Hazardous city after Muzafarabad due to
presence of active faults around it and having surrounded by faults of high slip rate while in
Batagram low hazard is observed as compare to Mansehra and Muzafarabad due to faults of
much less slip rates surrounded this city. The most lowest hazard was observed in the city
Islamabad although this city is near to the root shape branched faults known as the Splays of
the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) but these splays are not so closed to this city further these
fault splays have less slip rate as compared to other faults at other location because this total
slip rate of the MBT Fault is distributed amongst the whole splays regarding their length of
rupture share by each splay.
Figure 4.23: Comparison of PGA values for all the six (06) site location
of the study area in NW Himalayas, Pakistan
4.4 DISCUSSION
From the prepared seismic hazard map for the part of NW-Himalaya, Pakistan (Figure 4.2
and Figure 4.3) we can easily suggests that all the contours of the hazard follows the fault
lines as expected and larger values are observed along those faults which are most active and
has high slip rate as compared to other faults. Those areas where we has discontinue faults or
where we have less availability of major active faults the ground values in term of PGA
decreases and we observed the variation of the colour which shows the PGA at different
location along the contour of the map. These variations are also observed due to source to
site distance where there is change either increase or decrease in the distance from the site,
this variations are observed which have a great effect on the hazard map of the area.
Therefore on the basis of the prepared hazard map for the part of NW Himalaya, Pakistan
(Figure 4.2 and Figure 4.3) the following interpretations can be made;
1. Highest ground motions are observed in the district Muzafarabad where this city is so
close to the most active faults, Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) having highest slip rate
of 4.25 mm/yrwhich are surrounding the city.
2. The highest value of 475-Year return period PGA is 0.76g. The designed ground
motion values are increased with the increase of hazard level. Therefore the highest
value for 2475-Year return period PGA is 1.26g at Muzafarabad.
3. Mansehra also lies in the vicinity of the active faults therefore from the prepared
hazard map we observed that this city also lies in the most hazardous zone of the NW
Himalaya where the ground motion observed for the 475-Year return period PGA is
0.65g and the ground motions for the 2475-Year return period PGA is 1.14g.
4. The highest ground motions observed in both the cities, Muzafarabad and Mansehra
are due to the location which lies in the close vicinity of the active faults on all the
sides having highest slip rates as compared to other locations.
5. Tarbela Dam is on the third position amongst the study sites which has to be observed
the high ground motions for the 475-Year return period PGA is 0.54g and for the
2475-Year return period the PGA is 1.08g which was not expected so much by other
researchers. The reason for the high PGA is due to the Thakot and Puran faults which
lies on both the sides of the Tarbela Dam and seems like a channel flows among both
faults.
6. Abbotabad ranking fourth in term of ground motions observed which have PGA of
0.54g for the 475-Year return period and PGA of 0.95 for the 2475-Year return
period.
7. Batagram is next to Abbotabad for which observed the ground motions for the 475-
Year return period PGA is 0.52g and the ground motions for the 2475-Year return
period PGA is 0.86g. This city also lies to the active fault MMT but the distance is
more as compared to other cities which shows the variation in ground motion.
4.5 RECOMENDATONS FOR FUTURE WORK
The objective of this study was to provide a hazard map for the important locations in part of
NW Himalaya, Pakistan. Our another objective was to update the designed ground motions
for the study area using planer source models rather than aerial source which was modified
after all the published source of ground motions.
Our main target of the Probabilistic Hazard Assessment was district Mansehra in the NW
Himalaya while PSHA for other sites was also conducted which includes Muzafarabad,
Batagram, Abbotabad, Islamabad, Tarbela Dam.
In this studies the Hazard curves and the Deaggregation was conducted for each site of the
study area mentioned above.
We recommend that further studies in needed for the other cities in the NW Himalaya,
Pakistan which should also include the conduction of the Probabilistic Hazard Assessment
(PSHA) along with the Deterministic Hazard Assessment (DHA) because our studies
conducted only using PSHA.
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Hazard Assessment For The Part of NW Himalayas

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FAULT-BASED PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

FOR PART OF NORTH-WEST HIMALAYAN THRUST SYSTEM,

BASIT ALI, ASAD ALI KHAN, BASIT IQBAL,

UNIVERSITY OF SWABI, KHYBER PUKHTUNKHWA, PAKISTAN

SESSION 2017 - 2021

BASIT ALI, ASAD ALI KHAN, BASIT IQBAL,

SESSION 2017 – 2021

Chapter Title Page No.

II. SEISMIC SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION..........................................19

III. GROUND MOTION PREDICTION EUATIONS.....................................19

IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS...............................................................19

Table No. Title Page No.

Fig. No. Title Page No.

Fig 2.6 Seismicity distribution of earthquakes along the faults in NW Himalaya,

Fig 2.7 Magnitude versus Depth Histogram..............................................................

Fig 2.8 Magnitude versus No. of earthquake Histogram..........................................

Fig 2.9 Time versus No. of earthquake Histogram....................................................

Fig 2.10.a b-value using Least Square Method.............................................................

Fig 2.10.b b-value using Maximum Likelihood Method..............................................

Fig 2.13 MMT rupture system with assigned slip rate.................................................

Fig 2.14 MBT rupture system with assigned slip rate..................................................

Fig 2.21 HFT rupture system with assigned slip rate.....................................................

Fig 4.5 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Muzafarabad..............................

Fig 4.8 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Mansehra...................................

Fig 4.10 Deaggregation for Mansehra for 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years (2

Fig 4.11 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Batagram...................................

Fig 4.13 Deaggregation for Batagram for 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years (2

Fig 4.14 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Abbotabad.................................

Fig 4.16 Deaggregation for Abbotabad for 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years (2

Fig 4.17 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Islamabad...................................

Fig 4.19 Deaggregation for Islamabad for 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years (2

Fig 4.20 Hazard Curve of PGA (Vs30=760m/s) for Tarbela Dam..............................

FAULT-BASED PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

BASIT ALI, ASAD ALI KHAN, BASIT IQBAL

Key words: NW Himalayas, Probabilistic approach, MBT Splay-2, NGA West-2

1.2 Objectives and scope of the study

1.3 Previous Seismic Studies in Mansehra

1.3.2 Talal Iqbal et al., (2008)

1.3.3 Naveed Ahmad, (2008)

1.4 Organization of the thesis

Chapter 3 provides summarized introduction to the horizontal ground motion prediction

SEISMIC SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION

2.1 GEOLOGIC AND TECTONIC SETTING

Figure 2.3: Critical tectonic feature near site of Mansehra (After

Figure 2.4: Map showing seismogenic structures and instrumental

Figure 2.5: Map showing seismogenic structures of the study area in NW

2.3.3 Moment Magnitude:

Reverse Fault Mw=5.00+1.22 log L

In Strike Slip Fault Mw=5.16+1.12 log L

Normal Fault Mw=4.86+1.32 log L

2.3.4 Earthquake Catalogue:

Figure 2.6: Seismicity distribution of earthquakes along the faults in NW Himalaya,

Figure 2.7: Magnitude versus Depth Histogram

Figure 2.9: Time versus No. of earthquakes Histogram

a) Least square (LS) method

Figure 2.10.a: b-value using Least Figure 2.10.b: b-value using

Faults Segments Rupturing Scenarios

2.4.2 Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)

GROUND MOTION PREDICTION EQUATIONS

3.2 NGA-West2 Ground Motion Prediction Models

The main features which were updated in NGA-West1 are;

 Expansion of the database of NGA-West1 Models for different magnitude events