IE 3373 – Engineering Probability &

Stat Models

INTRODUCTION
INFORMATION

• Professor
– Amit Lopes, Ph.D.
• Class Hours
– TR 10:30 am - 11:50 am

• Office Hours
– 8:30-9:30 am TR
IE 3373 – ENGINEERING PROBABILITY AND STATISTCAL
MODELS

Required textbook

Engineering Statistics, Fifth Edition;

Authors: Douglas C. Montgomery,
George C. Runger and Norma F.
Hubele. Publisher: Wiley.
IE 3373 – ENGINEERING PROBABILITY AND STATISTCAL
MODELS

Grading procedure:
– The final grade will be based on a weighted average of the exam score,
attendance, and homework

Grading Grade percentage

Attendance 10% A 91-100
Homework 20% B 81-90
Exam 01 17.5% C 71-80
Exam 02 17.5% D 60-70
Exam 03 17.5% F <60
Exam 04 17.5%
IE 3373 – ENGINEERING PROBABILITY AND STATISTCAL
MODELS

• Late Work policy: Late homework or reports will not be accepted, unless
certified medical proof is given. If you are unable to attend the class at which
the homework is due, it is your responsibility to submit it earlier

•
IE 3373 – ENGINEERING PROBABILITY AND STATISTCAL
MODELS

Electronic communication device policy: All cell phones must remain OFF
during class time. No talking on the phone, text messaging, emailing, instant
messaging, or the like is to occur during the time allotted for this class.
IE 3373 – ENGINEERING PROBABILITY AND STATISTCAL
MODELS

Missed exams.: Missed exams will be given a grade of zero unless the student
submits a valid written excuse recognized by the university's rules. There will
be no makeup exams or extra work.
IE 3373 – ENGINEERING PROBABILITY AND STATISTCAL
MODELS

Academic Honesty
During exams and quizzes, you are not allowed to use any form of wi-fi
enabled electronic device, including cell phones or other electronic
communication devices or methods (calculators, wrist watches, earbuds, etc.). No
wrist watch or other electronic device may be worn.
During exams and quizzes, you are allowed to use only instructor approved
calculators. Check your syllabus for the list of approved calculators.

No electronic version of the book, loose paper print-outs of the book or extra
sheets of paper of any kind are allowed unless explicitly mentioned in writing by
the instructor. As a part of the zero-tolerance policy, if you have a cellphone or
other electronic device capable of communication on your person; or if any
proctor sees or hears any electronic device during the exam or if you share your
work with someone else, you will be reported to the proper authorities and you
may receive a zero on the exam and an F in the class. Other actions including
suspension may also be perused
IE 3373 – ENGINEERING PROBABILITY AND STATISTCAL
MODELS

Class Attendance Policy

Attendance is mandatory. Anyone with 5 or more absences will be dropped
from the class. A drop for not attending will count toward the State Allowed Six
Drop Limit. If you are failing the class at the time of the drop you may also be
given a WF designation. Be advised that a drop could adversely impact visa status,
financial aid and other programs.
As per UTEP rules, you may be asked to show a UTEP ID at any time during
class.
COURSE TOPICS

• Summarizing and Presenting Data

• Probability
• Distributions
• Hypothesis Tests for a Single Sample
• Inference for Two Samples
• Inference In Linear Models
INTRODUCTION

 Engineers solve problems of interest to

society by the efficient application of
scientific principles
 The engineering or scientific method is the
approach to formulating and solving these
problems
DETERMINISTIC VS. STOCHASTIC MODELS

Deterministic models
• Given a determined initial conditions, a
unique output can be determined.

Stochastic models
• Output is not unique.
• There is some uncertainty in the result.
• Randomness is involved in the process.
DETERMINISTIC PROCESS
• Save money in a bank for one year with known
interest rates.
• Example:
– Initial investment X=$1500
– Interest rate per year =3%
– Total amount of money= 1500+(1500*.03)
– Total amount of money= 1500+45=1545
As long as you know the input data the
output data will always be the same
STOCHASTIC PROCESS
• Invest money in the stock market
• Example:
If you buy an apple stock share…
– How much will the stock value be by the end of the
year ?
– How much will the stock value be in five years ?
STOCHASTIC PROCESS

• In a “rough” sense, a random process is a

phenomenon that varies to some degree of
unpredictably as time goes on.
• If we observe an entire time-sequence of
the process on several different occasions,
under presumably “identical” conditions,
the resulting observation sequences, in
general, would be different.
STOCHASTIC PROCESS

• HOW TO describe processes that always

have different results

• HOW TO determine that that variability is

inherent of the process or is due to
external factors
STATISTICS: science of data

• Statistical techniques are useful for

describing and understanding variability.
• By variability, we mean successive
observations of a system or phenomenon
do not produce exactly the same result.
• Statistics gives us a framework for
describing this variability and for learning
about potential sources of variability.
ENGINEERING EXAMPLE
Suppose that an engineer is developing a rubber
compound for use in O-rings. The O-rings are to be
employed as seals in tools used in the
semiconductor industry, so their resistance to acids
and other corrosive substances is an important
characteristic. The engineer uses the standard
rubber compound to produce eight O-rings in a
development laboratory and measures the tensile
strength of each specimen after immersion in a nitric
acid solution at 30°C for 25 minutes

The tensile strengths (in psi) of the eight O-rings are

1030, 1035, 1020, 1049, 1028, 1026, 1019, and
1010.
ENGINEERING EXAMPLE
• The dot diagram is a very useful plot for
displaying a small body of data - say up to about
20 observations.
• This plot allows us to see easily two features of
the data; the location, or the middle, and the
scatter or variability.

The tensile strengths (in psi) of the eight O-rings are 1030, 1035,
1020, 1049, 1028, 1026, 1019, and 1010.
COLLECTING DATA

Three basic methods for collecting data:

– A retrospective study using historical data
– An observational study
– A designed experiment
RETROSPECTIVE STUDY

• A retrospective study uses either all or a

sample of the historical process data from
some period of time.
• The objective of this study might be to
determine the relationship between
different controlled variables.
OBSERVATIONAL STUDY

• An observational study simply observes the

process of population during a period of
routine operation
• Provides reliable data but not necessarily
the relationships between variables
• Need to maintain large data sets
DESIGNED EXPERIMENT

• Factorial experiment
• Replicates
• Interaction
• Fractional factorial experiment
• One-half fraction
POPULATION AND RANDOM SAMPLE
POPULATION AND RANDOM SAMPLE

• Physical Population

• Conceptual Population
• All possible temperatures of a given day
• All possible weights for a product
DATA REPRESENTATION

• Stem and Leaf diagram

• Histograms

• Box plots
HISTOGRAM

• A histogram is a more compact summary

of data than a stem-and-leaf diagram.
• To construct a histogram for continuous
data, we must divide the range of the data
into intervals, which are usually called class
intervals, cells, or bins.
• If possible, the bins should be of equal
width to enhance the visual information in
the histogram
HISTOGRAM

• Using The following data construct a

histogram
• # of sections = 𝑛
HISTOGRAM
STEM & LEAF DIAGRAM
STEM & LEAF DIAGRAM

• Consider the following data and construct

a stem and leaf diagram
STEM & LEAF DIAGRAM
BOX PLOT

• The box plot is a graphical display that

simultaneously describes several important
features of a data set, such as center,
spread, departure from symmetry, and
identification of observations that lie
unusually far from the bulk of the data
BOX PLOT
RANDOM VARIABLE

• Since tensile strength varies or exhibits

variability, it is a random variable.
• A random variable, X, can be model by
X=+
• where  is a constant and  a random
disturbance
RANDOM VARIABLES
• Random variable(X): is a variable whose value is
subject to variations due to chance.

 Examples:
• Tossing a coin 10 times:
• Random variable X: number of tails
• S={1,2,3,…,10}

• Tossing a dice:
• Random variable X: value obtained
• S={1,2,3,…,6}

• A light bulb is burned until it burns out:

• Random variable X: Life time in hours.

• Waiting at the line in a bank:

• Random variable X: Waiting time.
RANDOM VARIABLES

• Discrete random • Continuous random

variables variables
• Discrete variables can take • Continuous variables can
on only certain values take any value within a
range of values
RANDOM VARIABLES

Discrete random Continuous random

variables variables

• Number of tails tossing a • Money earned in a day.

coin n times. • Weight of a product being
• Number of products sold produced.
in 1 day. • Time it takes to
• Raining days within a year. attend/service a customer.
• Number of customers
arriving to a store in a
month.
CHARACTERIZING A RANDOM VARIABLE

• Any situation where the outcome is uncertain

is called an experiment.
• For any experiment the sample space S of the
experiment consists of all possible outcomes
for the experiment.
• An event E consists of any collection of points
(set of outcomes) in the sample space.
• There are several descriptive measures used
to characterize an experiment.
EXPECTED VALUE
• Let X be a numerically-valued discrete random variable
with a sample space S and distribution function p(x).
• The expected value E(X) is defined by

𝐸 𝑋 = ෍ 𝑥 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥)
𝑥𝜖𝑆
• Let X be a numerically-valued continuous random
variable and a probability density function f(x).
• The expected value E(X) is defined by
𝐸 𝑋 = න 𝑥 ∗ 𝑓 𝑥 𝑑𝑥
EXPECTED VALUE

• The tensile strengths (in psi) of the

eight O-rings are 1030, 1035, 1020,
1049, 1028, 1026, 1019, and 1010.

8
1030 + 1035 + 1020 + 1049 + 1028 + 1026 + 1019 + 1010
𝑥ҧ = ෍
8
𝑥=1

8
1027
𝑥ҧ = ෍ = 1027.125
8
𝑥=1
EXPECTED VALUE
• Assuming the sample as the entire
universe.
• What is the probability that each measure
occurs

P(1030)=1/8 P(1035)=1/8 P(1020)=1/8 P(1049)=1/8

P(1028)=1/8 P(1026)=1/8 P(1019)=1/8 P(1010)=1/8

𝑛
1 1 1
𝐸 𝑋 = ෍ 𝑥𝑖 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥𝑖 ) = 1030 ∗ + 1035 ∗ + ⋯ 1010 ∗
8 8 8
𝑖=1
𝐸 𝑋 =1027.125
VARIANCE
• The Variance of a random variable X is a non-negative
number which gives an idea of how widely spread the
values of the random variable are likely to be.
VARIANCE

• For a population the variance is given by

σ 𝑁 2
2
𝑥
𝑖=1 𝑖 − 𝜇
𝜎 =
𝑁
• For a sample the variance is given by

𝑛 2
2
σ𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥ҧ
𝑠 =
𝑛−1
VARIANCE

The variance of random variable is defined

by
𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 = 𝑉 𝑥 = 𝜎 2 = 𝐸((𝑋 − 𝐸(𝑋))2 )

The standard deviation is defined by

𝜎= 𝜎2