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Heller (2003) Technical Progress in Joan Robinson's View - An Attempt at Systematisation and Formalisation
Heller (2003) Technical Progress in Joan Robinson's View - An Attempt at Systematisation and Formalisation
This paper deals with Joan Robinson’s contributions to the issue of technical progress
and her attempts at treating this subject in accordance with the Keynesian theory of
employment and income distribution, mainly in the long run. The paper aims to
review this aspect of her work and to establish a systematisation and a formalisation
of her approach. At the same time, the paper exposes the problems she faced—but
did not always solve. Looking through her main contributions, the paper concludes
that she used different criteria for the classification of innovations and that they
depended on the specific situations described by the models in which she used the
classification.
1. Introduction
Joan Robinson was one of the most important economists of the last century. She
contributed to, explained, criticised, expanded and made innovations to the
central ideas of the Keynesian Revolution, which had as its main source
Keynes’s General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). Robinson
dealt with so many and varied aspects of economic theory that it is easy to
understand why her relatively few papers on technical progress were relatively
neglected. This can also be explained by the relative failure of her attempt to
deal with such a complex subject in terms of a long-period Keynesian theory. In
addition, Robinson seldom treated the subject in a systematic way. This paper
aims at revising, systematising and formalising her approach to technical
progress, and at showing what were the difficulties she faced and was unable to
resolve.
This article uses the following notation: W for salaries, P for profits and Y
for output (or incomes). The letter K represents capital as a factor of production
and L represents labour. Superscripts 1 and 2 indicate the values before and after
the introduction of innovations, while the subscripts I and II indicate, respect-
ively, the investment and consumption sectors. The letters , , and represent
‘alpha’, ‘beta’, ‘gamma’ and ‘delta’ techniques.
ISSN 0953-8259 print/ISSN 1465-3982 online/03/040521-24 2003 Taylor & Francis Ltd
DOI: 10.1080/0953825032000121469
522 Claudia Heller
The immediate effect of inventions upon employment depends upon the extent
to which new equipment is the product of net investment and not merely the
result of using the amortisation funds of old plant to set up new plant. In
general, we may suppose that, except when inventions are highly capital-sav-
ing, a period of positive net investment will result from them … for all except
the most capital-saving require an increase in capital per head, while the
reduction in total output which results from increased thriftiness will not be
immediately foreseen. The first effect of inventions, therefore, is likely to be
an increase in employment, even when in the long run they will reduce it, and
a sufficiently rapid succession of inventions, provided they are not extremely
524 Claudia Heller
capital-saving, would prevent the rate of investment from ever falling to zero.
(Robinson, 1936, pp. 97–98)
One of the important conclusions of this essay is that technical progress
does not necessarily imply unemployment. Technical progress can be blamed for
unemployment only if it simply replaces old equipment (zero net investment)
and/or if it is of an extremely ‘labour-saving’ kind. Such a situation, in
Robinson’s opinion, is in fact unusual.
Among the nearly 40 reviews of Essays in the Theory of Employment,
Harrod’s deserves particular mention because it had a great influence on
Robinson and seems to have led her to develop a line of reasoning which she
initially thought would be fruitful, but which then turned out to be very difficult
and unsatisfying. Harrod asked for an explanation of how to measure the
‘volume of capital’ (or ‘stock of capital’) and required a more precise way of
measuring the effects of technical progress on the distribution and level of
income, as well as on the level of employment, which Robinson described
only verbally and intuitively. Robinson’s attempt to respond to Harrod’s criti-
cism led her to reformulate the production function and to discuss the meaning
and the measure of capital—issues in the famous Cambridge capital contro-
versy.1
Harrod also proposed a classification of innovations according to their
direct effect upon the capital/output ratio and established a causal relationship
for their effect on the level of employment, which was different from the one
suggested by Robinson. Robinson classified innovations according to the crite-
rion of income distribution, and this would become the determinant factor of the
changes in output and in long-term employment (through the principle of
effective demand), while for Harrod it was the change in output that determined
income distribution and therefore the level of employment. In his reasoning, if
the innovation raises the capital/output ratio, the share of wages in income
decreases and therefore the level of employment decreases (and vice versa). The
level of employment does not change if there is no change in the capital/output
ratio and, in that case, income distribution remains unchanged.
Table 1 describes Robinson’s classification, which is based on the income
distribution criterion and Harrod’s classification, which is based on the capital/
output ratio criterion (a kind of ‘technical coefficient’). The last line shows that,
leaving aside issues such as the propensity to consume, both classifications seem
to come to the same conclusion concerning the effect of technical progress on
the level of employment.
Robinson replied to Harrod’s criticisms of the measure of capital in her
article ‘The classification of inventions’ (Robinson, 1937–38). She suggested
that capital should be measured by its costs, in such a way that two stocks of
capital should be considered equal if they cost the same amount. She proposed
that the measure should be taken in terms of cost and related to the most efficient
investment goods of each kind, but she clearly recognised that certain ambigui-
ties remained, and signalled that she was aware of the difficulties involved in
‘measuring capital’. In this same essay, Robinson ‘translated’ the classification
1
See Harcourt (1972) for a survey of the Cambridge capital controversy.
Table 1. Technical progress classification by Robinson (1936) and Harrod (1937)
2
According to Besomi (1999a), the debate between Robinson and Harrod includes the issue of the
effects of technical progress on the price level and, according to Sardoni (2001), Keynes made
interesting observations on this debate concerning the effects of technical progress on the prices of
capital goods. On Harrod’s view see also Besomi (1999b) and, for a brief account of the unpublished
exchanged letters between Harrod and Robinson on this issue, see Besomi (2001).
Technical Progress in Joan Robinson’s View 527
Table 2. Classification of innovations according to their effect on the level of employment (absolute changes: describe
‘modification’) based on Robinson (1952c)
Table 3. Classification of innovations according to their effect on income distribution (relative changes: describe
‘choice’) based on Robinson (1952c)
K/ Y ⬍ L/ Y K/ Y ⬎ L/ Y
Technical Progress in Joan Robinson’s View 529
of new factors). The difference lies in that, in the first case, an increase in the
use of one factor inevitably implies the decrease in the use of the other. The
proportion in which the factors of production are substituted depends on the
specific shape of the production function and on the specific techniques (combi-
nations) that are exchanged. In the case of a movement towards another function
(of the same ‘family’), it is possible to increase output by simultaneously
changing the use of the two factors, in proportions that depend on the shape of
both functions. In such a case, the comparison between technologies becomes
very complicated, because it compels us simultaneously to compare the change
of ratio between factors and the change in scale of the factors (that is, the relative
and absolute quantities).
A ‘change in the state of knowledge’ is embodied by the emergence of a
new ‘family’ of functions that does not need to have a proportional relationship
to the previous one. If one compares two techniques, one can know when a
‘technical improvement’ occurs: it occurs when it is possible to produce the
same level of output with fewer factors, or to produce more output with the same
quantities of factors, not disregarding the possibility of combining these two
alternatives (simultaneously more output with fewer factors).
The possibility of new products has to be excluded, both in the case of the
choice of technique and in the change of technique, and it usually has to be
supposed that even if there is an ‘increase in productivity’, the physical
characteristics of the factors remain unchanged. These simplifying and ‘heroic’
hypotheses are necessary to avoid the comparison between qualitatively different
things. However, the problems of the quantitative measure remains. The above
description of the processes of ‘choice of technique’, ‘change of technique’, and
the comparison between techniques used intentional generic terms. To employ
more precise and rigorous expressions than ‘fewer factors’ or ‘more output’, one
would need to establish a criterion to permit these comparisons, that is, one
would need a measure—and this is precisely the kind of problem that was at the
core of the Cambridge capital controversy.
In the new classification of innovations, which distinguishes absolute
changes from relative changes in the usage of factors, Robinson concentrates on
the differentiation between ‘choice of technique’ and ‘technical change’. She
abandons her previous point of departure, which consisted in classifying the
innovations by different criteria: their effect on the level of employment and on
income distribution. Thus, in ‘Notes on the economics of technical progress’
(Robinson, 1952c), Robinson bases the classification on the proportion in which
an innovation reduces the use of capital and of labour per unit of output, both
in absolute and in relative terms. In other words: she expands the typology of
innovations to differentiate between effects in terms of the absolute share of the
factors in output and in terms of the combination between them. This means that
she did not completely abandon the concept of the production function, but the
idea of relating the change of the absolute share of a factor in output to its effect
on the level of employment and of relating the change of relative shares of a
factor in output to its effect on the income distribution is left behind. Neverthe-
less, Robinson stresses that, although inspired by the production function, her
classification cannot be translated into its terms because the production function
530 Claudia Heller
4
The main difference between the pseudo production function and the conventional production
function is that the former does not establish a unique and unambiguous relationship between the
output per capita, the capital/labour ratio and the rate of profitability. For a remarkable explanation
of these differences, though written much later, see Robinson (1977).
5
Robinson considered that the measure of capital needed to take into account the past
time–materialised in the interest rate–because, according to her, at any time the existing techniques
532 Claudia Heller
Footnote continued
are the outcome of previous processes which, in turn, incorporate historic and economic elements
and, obviously, the techniques themselves. See also Robinson (1955b). Harcourt (1972, pp. 15–29)
stresses that Robinson’s proposal to measure capital in terms of dated labour time allowed capital
to be related to output but did not allow to obtain distributive prices and shares. He also stresses that
‘even if we assume that clay machines are made from labour alone, we still run into the puzzle of
indentifying both the physical output and the value of output of a period …’ (Harcourt, 1972, p. 234).
Robinson was of course aware of these ‘puzzles’, which is why she proposed the ‘pseudo-production
function’ denomination. See the previous note.
Table 4. Hierarchisation of techniques, based on Robinson (1953–54)
Employees L L ⫽ 50 L ⫽ 50 L ⫽ 50 L ⫽ 50
Capital K K ⫽ 110 K ⫽ 104 K ⫽ 55 K ⫽ 90
Output Y Y ⫽ 70 Y ⫽ 65 Y ⫽ 60 Y ⫽ 55
Y/L (engineering criterion) Y/L ⫽ 1.40 Y/L ⫽ 1.30 Y/L ⫽ 1.20 Y/L ⫽ 1.10
K/Y (economic criterion) K/Y ⫽ 1.57 K/Y ⫽ 1.60 K/Y ⫽ 0.92 K/Y ⫽ 1.65
Technical Progress in Joan Robinson’s View
533
534 Claudia Heller
For Robinson, the main difficulty was her ‘failure to mark sufficiently sharply
the departure from the confused but weighty corpus of traditional teaching that
we required to make when we adopt a Keynesian approach to long-period
problems’ (Robinson, 1962a, p. v).
Some of the interpreters of Robinson, such as Meacci, add that the central
problem was the lack of a sufficient differentiation between the analysis of the
‘choice of technique’ and the study of ‘technical change’. For Meacci (1996,
p. 249), the choice of technique is connected to a list of feasible techniques
available for businessmen ‘that act like a sieve through which potential tech-
niques collapse into reality.’ In this sense, it represents an analysis within the
businessmen’s choice framework at a ‘microeconomic level’ and an ex-ante one,
driven by future prospects. As for technical change, it is connected to a list of
techniques that were already chosen from a list of techniques ‘[that] essentially
consist of input–output relations and feature all the complementarities character-
istic of actual production’ (Meacci, 1996, p. 249). Unlike ‘choice’, it represents
a dynamic phenomenon, which has implications for the rate of accumulation. In
this sense, although permeated by businessmen’s decisions, it applies to the
domain of ‘macroeconomics’ and it reflects the aggregated ex-post consequences
of these decisions. The main problem, according to Meacci, is that the division
between ‘choice’ and ‘change’, while present in The Accumulation of Capital, is
in fact only implicitly and indirectly presented.
It is necessary to stress, however, that the absence of a neat separation
between the ‘choice of technique’ and the ‘change of technique’ in The
Accumulation of Capital arises precisely because Robinson conceived that it was
necessary to consider both these elements in a long-period theory. In several of
her self-critical works from the 1950s, she arrived at the conclusion ‘[that] there
is no such thing as accumulation without change’ (Robinson, 1980, p. 110) and
furthermore, that ‘the spectrum of ready-blueprinted techniques was a mislead-
ing formulation; the process of accumulation itself brings techniques into being
as they are required’ (Robinson, 1980, p. 111). She also declared:
I was always hankering after the story of accumulation without new inventions,
which used to be told in terms of deepening the structure of capital, lengthen-
ing the average period of production, or increasing the roundaboutness of
inputs of labour …
[But] investment does not involve merely picking the profit-maximising
spot on a well-mapped technological frontier. It involves searching for an
appropriate technique, which will be blueprinted only after it has been chosen,
and the very process of search is a process of technical change. The growth of
output itself creates opportunities for specialisation and ‘increasing returns’,
… and new inventions and discoveries are continually being adapted to
industrial processes. There is no such thing as accumulation without change.
(Robinson, 1980, p. 109–110)
Table 5. Classification according to the change of output per capita and period of
production, based on Robinson (1960a)
Towards the end of the 1950s, she proclaimed herself totally dissatisfied with the
different models of accumulation that had appeared, essentially because they
were supposed to explain what actually took place. Her own book, The
Accumulation of Capital, did not escape from her criticisms. Nevertheless, at the
same time she recognised that all the models, including hers, were inevitably
unrealistic and, for this reason, should be seen as simple exercises. It is as an
exercise that she continued to pursue her work on growth, and she published
numerous other essays on the subject. Among these, it is worth mentioning her
‘Capital, technique and relative shares’ (1960a; see also Robinson, 1959a,
1959b, 1961, 1962c).
Here, Robinson elaborates four types of models and develops her arguments
around them. The first model is characterised by the existence of a unique sector
and a single technique, in which the only necessary investment serves for the
payment of wages, so that capital is simply a wage fund. In this model, she
defined the categories of ‘superior techniques’ (and ‘inferior techniques’) and
‘partial improvements’. ‘Superior’ techniques are a product of innovations that
reduce the period of production without changing output per capita, or of those
that increase output per capita without changing the period of production.
‘Partial improvements’ are a product of innovations that reduce the period of
production at the cost of productivity, and vice versa. Table 5 allows the
identification of other combinations not mentioned by her, such as ‘more than
superior’ techniques (which raise output per capita while decreasing the period
of production) and, conversely, ‘less than inferior’ techniques.
In the second model, Robinson assumes a single sector with a variable
technique, so that it becomes possible to choose among different ‘combinations
of factors’. She then defines ‘neutral innovations’ and ‘biased innovations’,
through movements of the production function and changes (or no changes) in
its shape. If the movement takes place without changing the shape of the
function, it represents a neutral innovation, which allows the level of output to
be raised without changing the use of factors. Capital-using innovations increase
output and use a higher proportion of capital than that of labour, irrespective of
the change in labour utilisation, and vice versa. Table 6 represents these
definitions schematically.
The third model works with two sectors and a variable technique and
538 Claudia Heller
Change in output Y2 ⬎ Y1 Y2 ⬎ Y1 Y2 ⬎ Y1
Change in capital K2 ⫽ K1 K2 ⬎ K1 Indifferent
Change in labour L2 ⫽ L1 Indifferent L2 ⬎ L 1
Relative change in factors K2/L2 ⫽ K1/L1 K2/L2 ⬎ K1/L1 K2/L2 ⬍ K1/L1
Category Description
Table 7 summarises this classification and shows that the analysis of the
effects of these different categories of innovations on income distribution and on
the level of employment is extremely complicated, but it is also a very rich one.
Asimakopulos & Weldon (1963) recognise that extending the one-sector model
to a two-sector one allows one to describe the various ways in which a specific
type of technical change may occur, but they argue that for analytical (not
descriptive or historical) concerns the classification in the one-sector model is
exhaustive. They also maintain that ‘the two-sector nature of Robinson models
is an unnecessary elaboration, and that the essential features of these models can
be quite satisfactorily represented in a single sector’ (Asimakopulos & Weldon,
1963, p. 372). I disagree: both in the figure and in the table they present
(Asimakopulos & Weldon, 1963, p. 373 and p. 383 respectively) many of the
most interesting features of Robinson’s various classifications do not appear.
For instance: following Robinson’s suggestions, an innovation that raises
output per capita in the investment sector permits us to produce the same
‘productive capacity’ with a lower level of employment and therefore releases
labour which will then depend on being hired through investment made in the
other sectors. When such investment is not enough, or if there are labour-saving
innovations (which, in turn, do not re-employ labour in the production of these
innovations), there will be unemployment. If, in addition, the new machines used
in the consumption sector have a higher productivity, real wages may rise if
prices follow (declining) the increase in productivity—this depends on the
‘degree of competition’. The result may be a decrease in employment and a rise
in real wages for those employed.
This example also shows that the specific feature of the innovation is not
the single determining factor of the final outcome, and illustrates the fact that the
macroeconomic outcome from a single innovation depends on several other
factors, particularly the degree of competition. It is even more important to
emphasise that the outcome may be determined by a multiplicity of factors. It
also depends on the specific hypotheses adopted. There are so many possible
540 Claudia Heller
solutions that Robinson was obliged to limit them through restrictive assump-
tions. Thus, she was able to describe alternative possibilities that characterise the
basic situations from which it is possible to develop the other variants. These
alternative basic situations were called ‘Robinson’s metallurgy’ (on this subject,
see Nevile, 1963, and Lachmann, 1963).
Undoubtedly, the essay ‘Capital, technique and relative shares’ is an
improvement on the previous papers on technical progress, at least in the
organisation of the arguments, even if Robinson did not always succeed in
eliminating the compartmentalisation of the various criteria of classification of
technical progress, or manage to make an orderly examination of their effects on
income distribution and/or on the level of employment (or on consumption and
investment). Nevertheless, she did not give up on this subject—but she did
refrain from trying to deal with all the issues of accumulation and technical
progress together. Two years later, in ‘A model of technical progress’ (Robinson,
1962c, p. 88), she admitted that:
The analysis of an economy in which technical progress is going on cannot be
made both neat and lifelike. There is nothing in reality which remains constant
through time to provide us with neat units in which to calculate. Workers are
acquiring new skills and losing old ones. Products are changing in physical
character, in saleability and in capacity to satisfy wants. The wants themselves
are changing with the products. The purchasing power of money over com-
modities, or over labour-time, or over both, is changing not only in general
level but also in pattern. Above all, capital goods are changing, so that the
means of production required for a later technique have little or nothing in
common with those of earlier designs.
However, she continued: ‘On the other hand, analysis which does not take
account of technical change can be very neat but it is of no interest’ (Robinson,
1962c, p. 88)
7. Conclusions
At the very beginning of her career (in the 1930s), Robinson wrote two different
essays on the subject of accumulation and technical progress: ‘The long period
theory of employment’ (1936) and ‘The classification of inventions’ (1937–38).
During the 1950s she wrote ‘The generalisation of the General Theory’ (1952b)
and ‘Notes on the economics of technical progress’ (1952c), which she repub-
lished in one book (The Rate of Interest and Other Essays). The only work in
which she tried to deal with both subjects in a coordinated way—The Accumu-
lation of Capital (1956)—was not a satisfactory one, as she recognised. She
made several new attempts during the 1960s, among which ‘A model of
accumulation’ (1962b) and ‘A model of technical progress’ (1962c) were also
republished (in Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth). Taking into account
that she reconsidered the importance of her 1952 essays and that they were
republished in 1979 (as The Generalisation of The General Theory), it is
possible to conclude that Robinson never gave up on these subjects, even though
she abdicated from dealing with both simultaneously.
Technical Progress in Joan Robinson’s View 541
output and increases the other. This also applies to an excessively capital-using
innovation, which reduces output per unit of capital. Obviously, partial improve-
ments are adopted only if the reduction in a cost element is proportionally higher
than the increase in the other element of cost. This is the criterion of eligibility
(or preference) used for the ‘degree of mechanisation’.
It is evident that this general classification of the different types of
innovations proposed by Robinson in her latest work on technical progress is not
rigorously new in itself. In ‘A model of technical progress’, Robinson refers to
the variants of the ‘golden age’—or the ‘vicissitudes’ to which a capitalist
economy is subjected—that arise when technical progress is biased and/or is
unstable. Despite this analysis, developed in ‘A model of accumulation’, she
limits the ‘vicissitudes’ to the possibility that the ‘feasible growth rate’ may be
different from the ‘desired growth rate’. Again, this means that innovations are
relegated to the background, despite their being considered to play a wide-
ranging role in changing the feasible rate of growth. At the same time, if
adopted, innovations become responsible for changing the real growth rate as
well.
The truth is that Robinson’s criterion of classification depends very much
on the hypotheses of the models in which the classification is employed.
Furthermore, the generalisation proposed in ‘A model of technical progress’ is
based on assumptions such as a closed system, non-existence of scarce factors
or of economies of scale, and the postulate that technical progress is incapable
of qualitatively modifying the final goods and that it is limited to the creation of
new equipment for the consumption-goods sector, using the same factories in the
investment-goods sector.7 Robinson concludes this essay by reminding the
reader that ‘in our analysis technical progress was assumed to have no effect
upon either the nature of commodities or the character of workers and con-
sumers’ (1962c, p. 111), and finally gives up her attempt to estimate its effects
on income distribution and on employment, restricting her study to seeking only
the kind of innovation that would be best suited to each specific situation, in
order to allow the continuity of the accumulation process.
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