Modelo Lineal

S/E ACARIGUA I Modelo ARIMA

(Lsup)
Jan-86 33.600
Feb-86 35.540
Mar-86 33.300
Apr-86 34.570
May-86 33.380
Jun-86 35.570
Jul-86 34.520
Aug-86 37.530
Sep-86 36.200
Oct-86 37.400
Nov-86 36.770
Dec-86 35.250 37.530
Jan-87 35.770
Feb-87 36.320
Mar-87 40.950
Apr-87 38.900
May-87 36.680
Jun-87 37.600
Jul-87 36.050
Aug-87 37.900
Sep-87 39.800
Oct-87 44.100
Nov-87 44.100
Dec-87 41.700 44.100
Jan-88 41.600
Feb-88 40.900
Mar-88 45.540
Apr-88 38.500
May-88 41.850
Jun-88 35.100
Jul-88 38.200
Aug-88 38.470
Sep-88 40.500
Oct-88 45.700
Nov-88 42.900
Dec-88 41.400 45.700
Jan-89 42.070
Feb-89 43.200
Mar-89 42.510
Apr-89 43.870
May-89 43.200
Jun-89 43.200
Jul-89 41.850
Aug-89 38.060
Sep-89 38.690
Oct-89 38.580
Nov-89 38.180
Dec-89 35.130 43.870
Jan-90 38.670
Feb-90 39.780
Mar-90 38.690
Apr-90 40.370
May-90 39.260
Jun-90 39.000
Jul-90 39.730
Aug-90 39.880
Sep-90 39.840
Oct-90 41.200
Nov-90 43.380
Dec-90 41.670 43.380
Jan-91 41.120
Feb-91 46.010
Mar-91 40.830
Apr-91 44.140
May-91 45.300
Jun-91 48.670
Jul-91 43.660
Aug-91 44.130
Sep-91 43.770
Oct-91 47.150
Nov-91 46.580
Dec-91 46.470 48.670
Jan-92 47.220
Feb-92 47.750
Mar-92 47.750
Apr-92 48.280
May-92 50.640
Jun-92 49.890
Jul-92 48.920
Aug-92 53.760
Sep-92 49.430
Oct-92 53.440
Nov-92 52.170
Dec-92 49.430 53.760
Jan-93 49.750
Feb-93 52.850
Mar-93 51.630
Apr-93 53.680
May-93 50.970
Jun-93 52.710
Jul-93 52.230
Aug-93 49.010
Sep-93 55.920
Oct-93 58.520
Nov-93 59.290
Dec-93 52.450 59.290
Jan-94 50.650
Feb-94 53.020
Mar-94 55.710
Apr-94 56.960
May-94 54.740
Jun-94 54.740
Jul-94 52.070
Aug-94 52.700
Sep-94 53.540
Oct-94 57.220
Nov-94 56.950
Dec-94 56.530 57.220
Jan-95 52.010
Feb-95 53.850
Mar-95 54.960
Apr-95 56.220
May-95 56.430
Jun-95 55.980
Jul-95 57.210
Aug-95 61.570
Sep-95 59.700
Oct-95 62.480
Nov-95 57.810
Dec-95 57.180 62.480
Jan-96 58.980
Feb-96 58.350
Mar-96 58.920
Apr-96 60.970
May-96 58.340
Jun-96 58.500
Jul-96 55.040
Aug-96 60.780
Sep-96 63.370
Oct-96 58.770
Nov-96 62.630
Dec-96 57.460 63.370
Jan-97 62.500
Feb-97 59.920
Mar-97 61.170
Apr-97 66.220
May-97 65.600
Jun-97 65.810
Jul-97 65.810
Aug-97 65.340
Sep-97 69.720
Oct-97 70.930
Nov-97 70.760
Dec-97 63.190 70.930
Jan-98 74.270
Feb-98 75.240
Mar-98 76.110
Apr-98 72.400
May-98 75.240
Jun-98 72.690
Jul-98 71.270
Aug-98 79.040
Sep-98 75.930
Oct-98 75.690
Nov-98 75.020
Dec-98 76.770 79.040
Jan-99 78.160
Feb-99 74.200
Mar-99 78.520
Apr-99 71.300
May-99 82.540
Jun-99 81.960
Jul-99 81.010
Aug-99 75.490
Sep-99 72.070
Oct-99 73.670
Nov-99 75.380
Dec-99 73.570 82.540
Jan-00 72.610
Feb-00 74.520
Mar-00 75.120
Apr-00 76.960
May-00 76.080
Jun-00 76.610
Jul-00 75.740
Aug-00 74.810
Sep-00 76.540
Oct-00 82.030
Nov-00 81.790
Dec-00 78.370 82.030
Jan-01 72.880
Feb-01 74.060
Mar-01 78.390
Apr-01 77.550
May-01 80.470
Jun-01 82.980
Jul-01 80.870
Aug-01 75.620
Sep-01 77.670
Oct-01 78.240
Nov-01 81.010
Dec-01 77.870 82.980
Jan-02 79.770
Feb-02 79.310
Mar-02 83.220
Apr-02 79.800
May-02 80.020
Jun-02 72.490
Jul-02 76.470
Aug-02 81.110
Sep-02 81.470
Oct-02 80.130
Nov-02 80.490
Dec-02 77.250 83.220
Jan-03 75.760
Feb-03 77.540
Mar-03 76.700
Apr-03 86.870
May-03 75.940
Jun-03 78.260
Jul-03 78.440
Aug-03 80.650
Sep-03 85.330
Oct-03 81.590
Nov-03 84.110
Dec-03 79.460 86.870
Jan-04 82.480
Feb-04 80.660
Mar-04 79.880
Apr-04 87.810
May-04 81.340
Jun-04 81.600
Jul-04 78.360
Aug-04 81.190
Sep-04 86.880
Oct-04 90.230
Nov-04 87.210
Dec-04 86.250 90.230
Jan-05 87.860
Feb-05 90.140
Mar-05 89.140
Apr-05 88.320
May-05 94.850
Jun-05 85.860
Jul-05 89.340
Aug-05 89.540
Sep-05 89.510
Oct-05 92.40
Nov-05 92.25
Dec-05 91.52 94.850
Jan-06 90.64
Feb-06 94.06
Mar-06 97.12
Apr-06 95.09
May-06 92.66
Jun-06 87.79
Jul-06 92.80
Aug-06 90.01
Sep-06 97.83
Oct-06 100.02
Nov-06 93.14
Dec-06 97.30 100.020
Jan-07 100.73
Feb-07 101.65
Mar-07 102.09
Apr-07 97.55
May-07 95.48
Jun-07 92.14
Jul-07 93.77
Aug-07 93.07
Sep-07 92.55
Oct-07 101.50
Nov-07 97.50
Dec-07 98.49 101.500
Jan-08 99.86 99.71
Feb-08 100.51 100.20
Mar-08 102.04 100.42
Apr-08 102.53 100.82
May-08 102.29 101.83
Jun-08 101.86 101.13
Jul-08 100.52 101.86
Aug-08 101.01 102.15
Sep-08 103.07 102.59
Oct-08 106.53 104.58
Nov-08 106.16 105.02
Dec-08 102.66 106.529 103.68
Jan-09 103.66 104.11
Feb-09 104.56 104.58
Mar-09 105.46 105.02
Apr-09 106.55 105.47
May-09 105.49 105.95
Jun-09 105.20 105.33
Jul-09 103.78 105.79
Aug-09 104.18 106.23
Sep-09 106.38 106.67
Oct-09 109.78 108.60
Nov-09 109.40 109.05
Dec-09 105.76 109.783 107.59
Jan-10 106.75 108.03
Feb-10 107.68 108.47
Mar-10 108.57 108.91
Apr-10 109.68 109.35
May-10 108.56 109.79
Jun-10 108.25 109.16
Jul-10 106.77 109.60
Aug-10 107.18 110.03
Sep-10 109.42 110.46
Oct-10 112.92 112.37
Nov-10 112.51 112.81
Dec-10 108.75 112.917 111.34
Jan-11 109.77 111.77
Feb-11 110.71 112.20
Mar-11 111.62 112.63
Apr-11 112.76 113.05
May-11 111.59 113.49
Jun-11 111.27 112.85
Jul-11 109.74 113.28
Aug-11 110.15 113.70
Sep-11 112.45 114.12
Oct-11 116.04 116.02
Nov-11 115.61 116.45
Dec-11 111.74 116.039 114.97
Jan-12 112.78 115.40
Feb-12 113.74 115.81
Mar-12 114.68 116.24
Apr-12 115.83 116.66
May-12 114.63 117.09
Jun-12 114.29 116.44
Jul-12 112.71 116.86
Aug-12 113.13 117.28
Sep-12 115.49 117.69
Oct-12 119.17 119.59
Nov-12 118.72 120.01
Dec-12 114.74 119.166 118.52
Jan-13 115.80 118.94
Feb-13 116.78 119.36
Mar-13 117.73 119.78
Apr-13 118.91 120.19
May-13 117.67 120.62
Jun-13 117.31 119.96
Jul-13 115.69 120.38
Aug-13 116.11 120.79
Sep-13 118.52 121.20
Oct-13 122.30 123.09
Nov-13 121.83 123.51
Dec-13 117.74 122.298 122.02
Jan-14 118.82 122.43
Feb-14 119.82 122.84
Mar-14 120.79 123.26
Apr-14 122.00 123.67
May-14 120.72 124.09
Jun-14 120.34 123.43
Jul-14 118.67 123.84
Aug-14 119.09 124.25
Sep-14 121.57 124.66
Oct-14 125.43 126.55
Nov-14 124.95 126.96
Dec-14 120.74 125.433 125.46
Jan-15 121.84 125.88
Feb-15 122.86 126.28
Mar-15 123.85 126.70
Apr-15 125.09 127.11
May-15 123.77 127.52
Jun-15 123.37 126.86
Jul-15 121.65 127.27
Aug-15 122.08 127.68
Sep-15 124.61 128.08
Oct-15 128.57 129.96
Nov-15 128.07 130.37
Dec-15 123.74 128.570 128.87
Jan-16 124.87 129.28
Feb-16 125.91 129.69
Mar-16 126.92 130.10
Apr-16 128.17 130.50
May-16 126.81 130.92
Jun-16 126.40 130.25
Jul-16 124.63 130.66
Aug-16 125.07 131.06
Sep-16 127.65 131.47
Oct-16 131.71 133.35
Nov-16 131.19 133.76
Dec-16 126.74 131.707 132.25
Jan-17 127.89 132.66
Feb-17 128.95 133.06
Mar-17 129.98 133.47
Apr-17 131.26 133.87
May-17 129.86 134.29
Jun-17 129.44 133.61
Jul-17 127.62 134.02
Aug-17 128.05 134.42
Sep-17 130.70 134.83
Oct-17 134.85 136.70
Nov-17 134.31 137.11
Dec-17 129.75 134.845 135.60
Jan-18 130.92 136.01
Feb-18 132.00 136.41
Mar-18 133.05 136.82
Apr-18 134.35 137.22
May-18 132.91 137.63
Jun-18 132.47 136.95
Jul-18 130.60 137.36
Aug-18 131.04 137.76
Sep-18 133.74 138.16
Oct-18 137.98 140.04
Nov-18 137.43 140.44
Dec-18 132.75 137.984 138.93
Jan-19 133.95 139.34
Feb-19 135.05 139.74
Mar-19 136.11 140.14
Apr-19 137.44 140.54
May-19 135.96 140.95
Jun-19 135.50 140.27
Jul-19 133.58 140.68
Aug-19 134.03 141.08
Sep-19 136.79 141.48
Oct-19 141.12 143.35
Nov-19 140.55 143.75
Dec-19 135.76 141.123 142.24
Jan-20 136.97 142.64
Feb-20 138.09 143.04
Mar-20 139.18 143.44
Apr-20 140.53 143.84
May-20 139.01 144.25
Jun-20 138.54 143.57
Jul-20 136.57 143.97
Aug-20 137.02 144.37
Sep-20 139.84 144.77
Oct-20 144.26 146.64
Nov-20 143.67 147.04
Dec-20 138.76 144.263 145.53
Jan-21 140.00 145.93
Feb-21 141.14 146.33
Mar-21 142.24 146.73
Apr-21 143.62 147.13
May-21 142.06 147.54
Jun-21 141.57 146.85
Jul-21 139.55 147.26
Aug-21 140.01 147.65
Sep-21 142.88 148.05
Oct-21 147.40 149.92
Nov-21 146.79 150.32
Dec-21 141.77 147.402 148.81
Jan-22 143.03 149.21
Feb-22 144.19 149.60
Mar-22 145.31 150.00
Apr-22 146.72 150.40
May-22 145.12 150.80
Jun-22 144.61 150.12
Jul-22 142.54 150.52
Aug-22 143.00 150.92
Sep-22 145.93 151.32
Oct-22 150.54 153.18
Nov-22 149.91 153.58
Dec-22 144.78 150.543 152.07
Jan-23 146.06 152.47
Feb-23 147.24 152.86
Mar-23 148.38 153.26
Apr-23 149.81 153.66
May-23 148.17 154.06
Jun-23 147.64 153.38
Jul-23 145.52 153.78
Aug-23 145.99 154.17
Sep-23 148.98 154.57
Oct-23 153.68 156.43
Nov-23 153.03 156.83
Dec-23 147.78 153.683 155.31
Jan-24 149.09 155.71
Feb-24 150.28 156.11
Mar-24 151.44 156.51
Apr-24 152.90 156.90
May-24 151.22 157.30
Jun-24 150.68 156.62
Jul-24 148.51 157.02
Aug-24 148.98 157.41
Sep-24 152.03 157.81
Oct-24 156.82 159.67
Nov-24 156.15 160.07
Dec-24 150.79 156.824 158.55
Jan-25 152.11 158.95
Feb-25 153.33 159.34
Mar-25 154.51 159.74
Apr-25 155.99 160.13
May-25 154.27 160.53
Jun-25 153.71 159.85
Jul-25 151.49 160.25
Aug-25 151.97 160.64
Sep-25 155.07 161.03
Oct-25 159.97 162.90
Nov-25 159.27 163.29
Dec-25 153.80 159.965 161.77
Jan-26 155.14 162.17
Feb-26 156.38 162.57
Mar-26 157.58 162.96
Apr-26 159.08 163.36
May-26 157.32 163.76
Jun-26 156.75 163.07
Jul-26 154.48 163.47
Aug-26 154.96 163.86
Sep-26 158.12 164.25
Oct-26 163.11 166.11
Nov-26 162.40 166.51
Dec-26 156.81 163.107 164.99
delo ARIMA Modelo Holt Winter (0,0.05,0) Máxima Anual
AÑO Lineal
1986 37.53
1987 44.10
1988 45.70
1989 43.87
1990 43.38
1991 48.67
1992 53.76
1993 59.29
1994 57.22
1995 62.48
1996 63.37
37.530 37.530 1997 70.93
1998 79.04
1999 82.54
2000 82.03
2001 82.98
2002 83.22
2003 86.87
2004 90.23
2005 94.85
2006 100.02
2007 101.50
2008 106.53
44.100 44.100 2009 109.78
2010 112.92
2011 116.04
2012 119.17
2013 122.30
2014 125.43
2015 128.57
2016 131.71
2017 134.85
2018 137.98
2019 141.12
2020 144.26
45.700 45.700 2021 147.40
2022 150.54
2023 153.68
2024 156.82
2025 159.97
2026 163.11
43.870 43.870

43.380 43.380

48.670 48.670

53.760 53.760

59.290 59.290
57.220 57.220

62.480 62.480

63.370 63.370

70.930 70.930
79.040 79.040

82.540 82.540

82.030 82.030

82.980 82.980
83.220 83.220

86.870 86.870

90.230 90.230

94.850 94.850
100.020 100.020

COMBINACIÓN LIN

101.500 101.500 Mínimo

97.10 97.10
98.66 98.66
99.72 99.72
100.17 100.17
99.57 99.57
98.28 98.28
97.30 97.30
98.55 98.55
100.07 100.07
103.43 103.43
102.55 102.55
105.022 98.74 103.431 98.74 103.431
100.13 100.13
101.73 101.73
102.81 102.81
103.27 103.27
102.64 102.64
101.31 101.31
100.29 100.29
101.57 101.57
103.13 103.13
106.58 106.58
105.66 105.66
109.046 101.73 106.584 101.73 106.584
103.16 103.16
104.80 104.80
105.91 105.91
106.37 106.37
105.71 105.71
104.34 104.34
103.28 103.28
104.58 104.58
106.19 106.19
 109.74 109.74
108.78 108.78
112.809 104.73 109.737 104.73 109.737
106.19 106.19
107.87 107.87
109.00 109.00
109.47 109.47
108.79 108.79
107.37 107.37
106.27 106.27
107.60 107.60
109.25 109.25
112.89 112.89
111.90 111.90
116.451 107.72 112.890 107.72 112.890
109.22 109.22
110.94 110.94
112.10 112.10
112.57 112.57
111.86 111.86
110.39 110.39
109.26 109.26
110.62 110.62
112.31 112.31
116.04 116.04
115.02 115.02
120.010 110.72 116.043 110.72 116.043
112.25 112.25
114.01 114.01
115.19 115.19
115.67 115.67
114.94 114.94
113.42 113.42
112.24 112.24
113.64 113.64
115.36 115.36
119.20 119.20
118.14 118.14
123.509 113.71 119.196 113.71 119.196
115.28 115.28
117.08 117.08
118.29 118.29
118.78 118.78
118.01 118.01
116.45 116.45
115.23 115.23
116.66 116.66
118.42 118.42
122.35 122.35
121.25 121.25
126.961 116.71 122.349 116.71 122.349
118.31 118.31
120.15 120.15
121.38 121.38
121.88 121.88
121.08 121.08
119.47 119.47
118.22 118.22
119.68 119.68
121.48 121.48
125.50 125.50
124.37 124.37
130.374 119.70 125.502 119.70 125.502
121.34 121.34
123.22 123.22
124.48 124.48
124.98 124.98
124.16 124.16
122.50 122.50
121.21 121.21
122.70 122.70
124.54 124.54
128.65 128.65
127.49 127.49
133.755 122.69 128.655 122.69 128.655
124.37 124.37
126.29 126.29
127.57 127.57
128.08 128.08
127.23 127.23
125.53 125.53
124.20 124.20
125.72 125.72
127.60 127.60
131.81 131.81
130.61 130.61
137.110 125.69 131.808 125.69 131.808
127.40 127.40
129.36 129.36
130.67 130.67
131.18 131.18
130.31 130.31
128.55 128.55
127.19 127.19
128.74 128.74
130.66 130.66
134.96 134.96
133.72 133.72
140.441 128.68 134.961 128.68 134.961
130.42 130.42
 132.43 132.43
133.76 133.76
134.28 134.28
133.38 133.38
131.58 131.58
130.18 130.18
131.76 131.76
133.71 133.71
138.11 138.11
136.84 136.84
143.751 131.68 138.113 131.68 138.113
133.45 133.45
135.50 135.50
136.86 136.86
137.38 137.38
136.46 136.46
134.61 134.61
133.17 133.17
134.78 134.78
136.77 136.77
141.27 141.27
139.96 139.96
147.044 134.67 141.266 134.67 141.266
136.48 136.48
138.57 138.57
139.95 139.95
140.48 140.48
139.53 139.53
137.63 137.63
136.15 136.15
137.80 137.80
139.83 139.83
144.42 144.42
143.08 143.08
150.320 137.67 144.419 137.67 144.419
139.51 139.51
141.64 141.64
143.05 143.05
143.58 143.58
142.60 142.60
140.66 140.66
139.14 139.14
140.82 140.82
142.89 142.89
147.57 147.57
146.20 146.20
153.582 140.66 147.572 140.66 147.572
142.54 142.54
144.71 144.71
146.14 146.14
 146.68 146.68
145.68 145.68
143.69 143.69
142.13 142.13
143.84 143.84
145.95 145.95
150.73 150.73
149.31 149.31
156.831 143.66 150.725 143.66 150.725
145.57 145.57
147.78 147.78
149.24 149.24
149.78 149.78
148.75 148.75
146.71 146.71
145.12 145.12
146.86 146.86
149.01 149.01
153.88 153.88
152.43 152.43
160.069 146.65 153.878 146.65 153.878
148.60 148.60
150.85 150.85
152.33 152.33
152.88 152.88
151.83 151.83
149.74 149.74
148.11 148.11
149.87 149.87
152.06 152.06
157.03 157.03
155.55 155.55
163.295 149.65 157.031 149.65 157.031
151.63 151.63
153.92 153.92
155.43 155.43
155.98 155.98
154.90 154.90
152.77 152.77
151.10 151.10
152.89 152.89
155.12 155.12
160.18 160.18
158.67 158.67
166.511 152.64 160.184 152.64 160.184
 Máxima Anual Máxima Anual
T-crecimiento % ARIMA T-crecimiento % Holt Winters T-crecimiento %
37.53 37.53
17.5% 44.10 17.5% 44.10 17.5%
3.6% 45.70 3.6% 45.70 3.6%
-4.0% 43.87 -4.0% 43.87 -4.0%
-1.1% 43.38 -1.1% 43.38 -1.1%
12.2% 48.67 12.2% 48.67 12.2%
10.5% 53.76 10.5% 53.76 10.5%
10.3% 59.29 10.3% 59.29 10.3%
-3.5% 57.22 -3.5% 57.22 -3.5%
9.2% 62.48 9.2% 62.48 9.2%
1.4% 63.37 1.4% 63.37 1.4%
11.9% 70.93 11.9% 70.93 11.9%
11.4% 79.04 11.4% 79.04 11.4%
4.4% 82.54 4.4% 82.54 4.4%
-0.6% 82.03 -0.6% 82.03 -0.6%
1.2% 82.98 1.2% 82.98 1.2%
0.3% 83.22 0.3% 83.22 0.3%
4.4% 86.87 4.4% 86.87 4.4%
3.9% 90.23 3.9% 90.23 3.9%
5.1% 94.85 5.1% 94.85 5.1%
5.5% 100.02 5.5% 100.02 5.5%
1.5% 101.50 1.5% 101.50 1.5%
5.0% 105.02 3.5% 103.43 1.9%
3.1% 109.05 3.8% 106.58 3.0%
2.9% 112.81 3.5% 109.74 3.0%
2.8% 116.45 3.2% 112.89 2.9%
2.7% 120.01 3.1% 116.04 2.8%
2.6% 123.51 2.9% 119.20 2.7%
2.6% 126.96 2.8% 122.35 2.6%
2.5% 130.37 2.7% 125.50 2.6%
2.4% 133.76 2.6% 128.65 2.5%
2.4% 137.11 2.5% 131.81 2.5%
2.3% 140.44 2.4% 134.96 2.4%
2.3% 143.75 2.4% 138.11 2.3%
2.2% 147.04 2.3% 141.27 2.3%
2.2% 150.32 2.2% 144.42 2.2%
2.1% 153.58 2.2% 147.57 2.2%
2.1% 156.83 2.1% 150.73 2.1%
2.0% 160.07 2.1% 153.88 2.1%
2.0% 163.29 2.0% 157.03 2.0%
2.0% 166.51 2.0% 160.18 2.0%
COMBINACIÓN LINEAL DE PRONÓSTICOS
Año
Promedio Máximo 2007
98.89 99.86 2008
99.79 100.51 2009
100.73 102.04 2010
101.17 102.53 2011
101.23 102.29 2012
100.43 101.86 2013
99.89 101.86 2014
100.57 102.15 2015
101.91 103.07 2016
104.85 106.53 2017
104.57 106.16 2018
101.69 104.846 103.68 106.529 2019
102.63 104.11 2020
103.62 104.58 2021
104.43 105.46 2022
105.10 106.55 2023
104.69 105.95 2024
103.95 105.33 2025
103.29 105.79 2026
103.99 106.23
105.39 106.67
108.32 109.78
108.04 109.40
105.03 108.322 107.59 109.783
105.98 108.03
106.98 108.47
107.80 108.91
108.47 109.68
108.02 109.79
107.25 109.16
106.55 109.60
107.27 110.03
108.69 110.46
111.68 112.92
111.37 112.81
108.27 111.676 111.34 112.917
109.24 111.77
110.26 112.20
111.09 112.63
111.76 113.05
111.29 113.49
110.49 112.85
109.76 113.28
110.49 113.70
111.94 114.12
114.98 116.04
114.65 116.45
111.48 114.984 114.97 116.451
112.46 115.40
113.50 115.81
114.34 116.24
115.02 116.66
114.53 117.09
113.70 116.44
112.94 116.86
113.68 117.28
115.16 117.69
118.27 119.59
117.92 120.01
114.66 118.266 118.52 120.010
115.66 118.94
116.72 119.36
117.57 119.78
118.26 120.19
117.74 120.62
116.90 119.96
116.10 120.38
116.85 120.79
118.36 121.20
121.53 123.09
121.16 123.51
117.82 121.529 122.02 123.509
118.84 122.43
119.92 122.84
120.78 123.26
121.48 123.67
120.94 124.09
120.07 123.43
119.25 123.84
120.00 124.25
121.55 124.66
124.78 126.55
124.39 126.96
120.97 124.776 125.46 126.961
122.01 125.88
123.10 126.28
123.98 126.70
124.69 127.11
124.12 127.52
123.23 126.86
122.38 127.27
123.15 127.68
124.72 128.08
128.01 129.96
127.60 130.37
124.10 128.011 128.87 130.374
125.16 129.28
126.27 129.69
127.16 130.10
127.89 130.50
127.30 130.92
126.38 130.25
125.50 130.66
126.28 131.06
127.89 131.47
131.24 133.35
130.81 133.76
127.23 131.236 132.25 133.755
128.31 132.66
129.44 133.06
130.34 133.47
131.07 133.87
130.46 134.29
129.53 133.61
128.61 134.02
129.40 134.42
131.04 134.83
134.45 136.70
134.01 137.11
130.35 134.452 135.60 137.110
131.44 136.01
132.59 136.41
133.51 136.82
134.25 137.22
133.62 137.63
132.66 136.95
131.72 137.36
132.51 137.76
134.19 138.16
137.66 140.04
137.20 140.44
133.46 137.660 138.93 140.441
134.57 139.34
135.74 139.74
136.67 140.14
137.42 140.54
136.76 140.95
135.79 140.27
134.81 140.68
135.62 141.08
137.33 141.48
140.86 143.35
140.38 143.75
136.56 140.861 142.24 143.751
137.69 142.64
138.88 143.04
139.83 143.44
140.59 143.84
139.91 144.25
138.91 143.57
137.90 143.97
138.72 144.37
140.46 144.77
144.06 146.64
143.56 147.04
139.66 144.057 145.53 147.044
140.81 145.93
142.02 146.33
142.98 146.73
143.75 147.13
143.04 147.54
142.02 146.85
140.99 147.26
141.82 147.65
143.59 148.05
147.25 149.92
146.73 150.32
142.75 147.247 148.81 150.320
143.92 149.21
145.15 149.60
146.12 150.00
146.90 150.40
146.17 150.80
145.13 150.12
144.07 150.52
144.91 150.92
146.71 151.32
150.43 153.18
149.90 153.58
145.83 150.432 152.07 153.582
147.02 152.47
148.27 152.86
149.26 153.26
150.05 153.66
149.30 154.06
148.24 153.38
147.14 153.78
148.00 154.17
149.83 154.57
153.61 156.43
153.06 156.83
148.92 153.613 155.31 156.831
150.12 155.71
151.39 156.11
152.40 156.51
153.19 156.90
152.43 157.30
151.34 156.62
150.22 157.02
151.08 157.41
152.95 157.81
156.79 159.67
156.22 160.07
152.00 156.791 158.55 160.069
153.22 158.95
154.51 159.34
155.53 159.74
156.34 160.13
155.54 160.53
154.43 159.85
153.28 160.25
154.16 160.64
156.06 161.03
159.96 162.90
159.37 163.29
155.07 159.965 161.77 163.295
156.31 162.17
157.62 162.57
158.66 162.96
159.48 163.36
158.66 163.76
157.53 163.07
156.35 163.47
157.24 163.86
159.17 164.25
163.13 166.11
162.53 166.51
158.15 163.135 164.99 166.511
Máxima Anual Diferencia Diferencia Diferencia Holt
Portuguesa Lineal ARIMA Winters
180.00

160.00

Potencia (MW)
Acarigua I
140.00 Pronóstico LINEAL
Pronóstico HOLT WIN
120.00 Pronósticos ARIMA

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00

May-89
Jan-86
Nov-86
Sep-87
Jul-88

Mar-90
Jan-91
Nov-91
Sep-92
Jul-93
May-94
Mar-95
Jan-96
Nov-96
Sep-97
105.25 5.227 5.227 5.23
109.69 8.188 8.188 8.19
113.67 7.138 8.646 10.24
117.66 7.875 8.613 11.07
121.65 8.732 8.840 11.91
125.64 9.601 9.189 12.75
129.63 10.465 9.620 13.59
133.62 11.323 10.112 14.43
137.61 12.179 10.652 15.26
141.60 13.033 11.229 16.10

Promedio de diferencias
9.376 9.032 11.876
Dmáx %Crec.
101.50
104.85 3.3%
108.32 3.3%
111.68 3.1%
114.98 3.0%
118.27 2.9%
121.53 2.8%
124.78 2.7%
128.01 2.6%
131.24 2.5%
134.45 2.5%
137.66 2.4%
140.86 2.3%
144.06 2.3%
147.25 2.2%
150.43 2.2%
153.61 2.1%
156.79 2.1%
159.96 2.0%
163.13 2.0%
 Jul-88
May-89
Mar-90
Jan-91
Nov-91
Sep-92
Jul-93
May-94

Acarigua I
Mar-95
Jan-96
Nov-96

Pronóstico LINEAL

Pronósticos ARIMA
Sep-97
Jul-98
May-99

Pronóstico HOLT WINTERS

Mar-00
Jan-01
Nov-01
Sep-02
Jul-03
May-04
Mar-05
Jan-06
Nov-06
Sep-07

Tiempo (Años)
Jul-08
May-09
Mar-10
Jan-11
Nov-11
Sep-12
Jul-13
May-14
Mar-15
Jan-16
Nov-16
Sep-17
Jul-18
May-19
Mar-20
Jan-21
Nov-21
Sep-22
Jul-23
May-24
Mar-25
Jan-26
Nov-26
 Modelo ARIMA
S/E ACARIGUA II Modelo Holt Winter (0,0,0)
(Lsup)
Jan-86 16.200
Feb-86 20.600
Mar-86 19.800
Apr-86 22.000
May-86 16.600
Jun-86 17.100
Jul-86 22.500
Aug-86 18.900
Sep-86 18.000
Oct-86 18.900
Nov-86 18.400
Dec-86 15.460 22.500
Jan-87 18.400
Feb-87 19.800
Mar-87 19.800
Apr-87 24.740
May-87 18.400
Jun-87 21.600
Jul-87 19.800
Aug-87 17.100
Sep-87 18.040
Oct-87 18.900
Nov-87 21.600
Dec-87 18.000 24.740
Jan-88 21.600
Feb-88 21.600
Mar-88 22.500
Apr-88 23.000
May-88 21.600
Jun-88 22.940
Jul-88 26.000
Aug-88 20.600
Sep-88 22.500
Oct-88 22.000
Nov-88 19.800
Dec-88 22.800 26.000
Jan-89 22.500
Feb-89 20.700
Mar-89 22.940
Apr-89 23.400
May-89 23.400
Jun-89 22.500
Jul-89 20.700
Aug-89 21.300
Sep-89 21.900
Oct-89 21.740
Nov-89 23.840
Dec-89 22.580 23.840
Jan-90 23.840
Feb-90 25.080
Mar-90 24.660
Apr-90 24.260
May-90 24.260
Jun-90 23.420
Jul-90 22.580
Aug-90 22.580
Sep-90 22.580
Oct-90 23.420
Nov-90 22.580
Dec-90 21.740 25.080
Jan-91 29.680
Feb-91 25.080
Mar-91 27.600
Apr-91 25.920
May-91 28.860
Jun-91 28.440
Jul-91 25.080
Aug-91 23.000
Sep-91 25.080
Oct-91 27.600
Nov-91 26.760
Dec-91 25.260 29.680
Jan-92 25.920
Feb-92 28.020
Mar-92 30.100
Apr-92 29.260
May-92 24.260
Jun-92 25.920
Jul-92 23.420
Aug-92 21.740
Sep-92 22.160
Oct-92 26.340
Nov-92 29.480
Dec-92 25.080 30.100
Jan-93 27.450
Feb-93 23.620
Mar-93 22.990
Apr-93 23.840
May-93 27.390
Jun-93 22.740
Jul-93 26.260
Aug-93 23.700
Sep-93 23.420
Oct-93 28.140
Nov-93 28.220
Dec-93 27.610 28.220
Jan-94 26.050
Feb-94 27.560
Mar-94 27.260
Apr-94 26.860
May-94 28.310
Jun-94 24.390
Jul-94 23.560
Aug-94 29.010
Sep-94 24.250
Oct-94 25.210
Nov-94 27.810
Dec-94 25.320 29.010
Jan-95 25.080
Feb-95 25.110
Mar-95 27.520
Apr-95 25.960
May-95 25.760
Jun-95 24.880
Jul-95 29.500
Aug-95 26.950
Sep-95 31.060
Oct-95 28.100
Nov-95 30.060
Dec-95 31.900 31.900
Jan-96 27.180
Feb-96 27.180
Mar-96 27.760
Apr-96 28.480
May-96 29.320
Jun-96 28.020
Jul-96 27.300
Aug-96 26.300
Sep-96 27.180
Oct-96 29.600
Nov-96 29.180
Dec-96 30.320 30.320
Jan-97 31.210
Feb-97 30.740
Mar-97 31.860
Apr-97 31.140
May-97 30.640
Jun-97 29.140
Jul-97 30.630
Aug-97 28.600
Sep-97 30.780
Oct-97 34.280
Nov-97 30.220
Dec-97 29.760 34.280
Jan-98 30.680
Feb-98 32.940
Mar-98 31.540
Apr-98 34.160
May-98 34.160
Jun-98 31.090
Jul-98 34.520
Aug-98 31.090
Sep-98 29.000
Oct-98 31.920
Nov-98 33.000
Dec-98 33.240 34.520
Jan-99 30.880
Feb-99 30.520
Mar-99 29.820
Apr-99 31.040
May-99 31.650
Jun-99 32.400
Jul-99 32.450
Aug-99 27.260
Sep-99 30.100
Oct-99 29.900
Nov-99 32.160
Dec-99 33.240 33.240
Jan-00 32.100
Feb-00 32.100
Mar-00 34.360
Apr-00 33.560
May-00 34.420
Jun-00 32.760
Jul-00 29.270
Aug-00 30.230
Sep-00 27.050
Oct-00 26.630
Nov-00 27.260
Dec-00 27.600 34.420
Jan-01 29.300
Feb-01 28.560
Mar-01 31.440
Apr-01 29.600
May-01 27.820
Jun-01 27.240
Jul-01 32.700
Aug-01 27.420
Sep-01 32.740
Oct-01 33.780
Nov-01 32.940
Dec-01 26.080 33.780
Jan-02 30.780
Feb-02 30.010
Mar-02 28.320
Apr-02 29.820
May-02 36.300
Jun-02 32.160
Jul-02 31.900
Aug-02 26.880
Sep-02 30.990
Oct-02 32.890
Nov-02 31.510
Dec-02 32.380 36.300
Jan-03 34.250
Feb-03 32.610
Mar-03 33.420
Apr-03 33.920
May-03 30.900
Jun-03 31.070
Jul-03 30.400
Aug-03 34.970
Sep-03 37.190
Oct-03 35.400
Nov-03 36.790
Dec-03 37.320 37.320
Jan-04 32.990
Feb-04 38.110
Mar-04 36.990
Apr-04 38.050
May-04 37.280
Jun-04 32.570
Jul-04 36.510
Aug-04 38.930
Sep-04 37.130
Oct-04 36.270
Nov-04 35.060
Dec-04 33.220 38.930
Jan-05 36.970
Feb-05 41.500
Mar-05 39.000
Apr-05 38.290
May-05 38.650
Jun-05 35.250
Jul-05 33.260
Aug-05 34.290
Sep-05 37.270
Oct-05 40.60
Nov-05 39.57
Dec-05 38.45 41.500
Jan-06 38.50
Feb-06 33.90
Mar-06 35.38
Apr-06 36.26
May-06 35.85
Jun-06 35.26
Jul-06 33.98
Aug-06 34.45
Sep-06 37.15
Oct-06 39.44
Nov-06 40.80
Dec-06 34.76 40.800
Jan-07 36.70
Feb-07 38.35
Mar-07 35.69
Apr-07 36.74
May-07 36.24
Jun-07 38.40
Jul-07 38.09
Aug-07 40.06
Sep-07 39.77
Oct-07 40.82
Nov-07 42.10
Dec-07 37.66 42.100
Jan-08 40.92 41.82
Feb-08 41.68 42.92
Mar-08 41.52 43.46
Apr-08 42.25 44.01
May-08 41.72 43.81
Jun-08 41.08 42.61
Jul-08 41.50 42.85
Aug-08 40.81 41.05
Sep-08 41.77 42.80
Oct-08 42.85 44.64
Nov-08 43.23 45.14
Dec-08 41.56 43.233 43.46
Jan-09 42.36 44.82
Feb-09 42.95 45.05
Mar-09 42.96 45.82
Apr-09 43.45 46.23
May-09 42.92 45.80
Jun-09 42.27 44.48
Jul-09 42.69 44.69
Aug-09 42.01 42.75
Sep-09 42.96 44.54
Oct-09 44.05 46.42
Nov-09 44.43 46.92
Dec-09 42.75 44.426 45.16
Jan-10 43.56 46.55
Feb-10 44.15 46.79
Mar-10 44.16 47.57
Apr-10 44.65 48.00
May-10 44.12 47.54
Jun-10 43.48 46.17
Jul-10 43.90 46.38
Aug-10 43.21 44.36
Sep-10 44.16 46.22
Oct-10 45.25 48.17
Nov-10 45.63 48.69
Dec-10 43.95 45.627 46.85
Jan-11 44.76 48.31
Feb-11 45.36 48.55
Mar-11 45.37 49.36
Apr-11 45.86 49.81
May-11 45.33 49.33
Jun-11 44.68 47.91
Jul-11 45.11 48.12
Aug-11 44.42 46.02
Sep-11 45.37 47.96
Oct-11 46.45 49.99
Nov-11 46.83 50.53
Dec-11 45.16 46.833 48.62
Jan-12 45.97 50.13
Feb-12 46.57 50.38
Mar-12 46.58 51.23
Apr-12 47.07 51.69
May-12 46.54 51.19
Jun-12 45.89 49.71
Jul-12 46.31 49.94
Aug-12 45.63 47.76
Sep-12 46.58 49.76
Oct-12 47.66 51.88
Nov-12 48.04 52.44
Dec-12 46.36 48.041 50.45
Jan-13 47.18 52.02
Feb-13 47.78 52.29
Mar-13 47.79 53.16
Apr-13 48.28 53.64
May-13 47.75 53.13
Jun-13 47.10 51.59
Jul-13 47.53 51.83
Aug-13 46.84 49.55
Sep-13 47.79 51.64
Oct-13 48.87 53.84
Nov-13 49.25 54.42
Dec-13 47.57 49.249 52.36
Jan-14 48.39 53.99
Feb-14 49.00 54.26
Mar-14 49.01 55.18
Apr-14 49.50 55.67
May-14 48.97 55.14
Jun-14 48.32 53.54
Jul-14 48.74 53.78
Aug-14 48.05 51.42
Sep-14 49.00 53.59
Oct-14 50.08 55.87
Nov-14 50.46 56.48
Dec-14 48.78 50.458 54.33
Jan-15 49.60 56.03
Feb-15 50.21 56.31
Mar-15 50.22 57.26
Apr-15 50.71 57.78
May-15 50.18 57.22
Jun-15 49.53 55.55
Jul-15 49.95 55.81
Aug-15 49.26 53.36
Sep-15 50.21 55.61
Oct-15 51.29 57.98
Nov-15 51.67 58.61
Dec-15 49.99 51.666 56.38
Jan-16 50.81 58.14
Feb-16 51.42 58.43
Mar-16 51.43 59.42
Apr-16 51.92 59.96
May-16 51.38 59.38
Jun-16 50.73 57.64
Jul-16 51.15 57.91
Aug-16 50.46 55.36
Sep-16 51.42 57.70
Oct-16 52.50 60.16
Nov-16 52.87 60.82
Dec-16 51.19 52.872 58.50
Jan-17 52.02 60.33
Feb-17 52.62 60.63
Mar-17 52.63 61.65
Apr-17 53.12 62.21
May-17 52.59 61.61
Jun-17 51.94 59.81
Jul-17 52.36 60.08
Aug-17 51.67 57.43
Sep-17 52.62 59.86
Oct-17 53.70 62.42
Nov-17 54.08 63.10
Dec-17 52.40 54.075 60.69
Jan-18 53.22 62.59
Feb-18 53.83 62.90
Mar-18 53.84 63.96
Apr-18 54.33 64.54
May-18 53.79 63.91
Jun-18 53.14 62.04
Jul-18 53.56 62.32
Aug-18 52.87 59.57
Sep-18 53.82 62.09
Oct-18 54.90 64.75
Nov-18 55.28 65.45
Dec-18 53.60 55.277 62.95
Jan-19 54.43 64.92
Feb-19 55.03 65.24
Mar-19 55.04 66.34
Apr-19 55.53 66.94
May-19 54.99 66.29
Jun-19 54.34 64.34
Jul-19 54.76 64.64
Aug-19 54.07 61.77
Sep-19 55.02 64.39
Oct-19 56.10 67.15
Nov-19 56.47 67.88
Dec-19 54.80 56.475 65.28
Jan-20 55.62 67.32
Feb-20 56.23 67.66
Mar-20 56.24 68.80
Apr-20 56.73 69.42
May-20 56.19 68.74
Jun-20 55.54 66.72
Jul-20 55.96 67.02
Aug-20 55.27 64.05
Sep-20 56.22 66.77
Oct-20 57.30 69.63
Nov-20 57.67 70.38
Dec-20 55.99 57.670 67.68
Jan-21 56.82 69.80
Feb-21 57.42 70.15
Mar-21 57.43 71.33
Apr-21 57.92 71.97
May-21 57.39 71.27
Jun-21 56.73 69.17
Jul-21 57.15 69.48
Aug-21 56.46 66.39
Sep-21 57.41 69.21
Oct-21 58.49 72.18
Nov-21 58.86 72.96
Dec-21 57.18 58.862 70.15
Jan-22 58.01 72.36
Feb-22 58.61 72.71
Mar-22 58.62 73.94
Apr-22 59.11 74.60
May-22 58.58 73.87
Jun-22 57.92 71.69
Jul-22 58.34 72.01
Aug-22 57.65 68.81
Sep-22 58.60 71.73
Oct-22 59.68 74.81
Nov-22 60.05 75.61
Dec-22 58.37 60.051 72.70
Jan-23 59.20 74.98
Feb-23 59.80 75.35
Mar-23 59.81 76.62
Apr-23 60.30 77.31
May-23 59.76 76.54
Jun-23 59.11 74.28
Jul-23 59.53 74.61
Aug-23 58.84 71.29
Sep-23 59.79 74.32
Oct-23 60.86 77.51
Nov-23 61.24 78.34
Dec-23 59.55 61.236 75.32
Jan-24 60.38 77.68
Feb-24 60.99 78.06
Mar-24 61.00 79.38
Apr-24 61.48 80.08
May-24 60.95 79.29
Jun-24 60.29 76.94
Jul-24 60.71 77.29
Aug-24 60.02 73.84
Sep-24 60.97 76.97
Oct-24 62.04 80.28
Nov-24 62.42 81.14
Dec-24 60.74 62.417 78.01
Jan-25 61.56 80.46
Feb-25 62.17 80.85
Mar-25 62.18 82.21
Apr-25 62.66 82.94
May-25 62.13 82.11
Jun-25 61.47 79.68
Jul-25 61.89 80.03
Aug-25 61.20 76.46
Sep-25 62.15 79.71
Oct-25 63.22 83.13
Nov-25 63.59 84.02
Dec-25 61.91 63.595 80.77
Jan-26 62.74 83.30
Feb-26 63.34 83.71
Mar-26 63.35 85.12
Apr-26 63.84 85.87
May-26 63.30 85.01
Jun-26 62.65 82.49
Jul-26 63.06 82.85
Aug-26 62.37 79.14
Sep-26 63.32 82.51
Oct-26 64.40 86.05
Nov-26 64.77 86.97
Dec-26 63.09 64.768 83.60
delo Holt Winter (0,0,0) Modelo Holt Winter (0,0.05,0) AÑO
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
22.500 22.500 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
24.740 24.740 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
26.000 26.000 2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

23.840 23.840
25.080 25.080

29.680 29.680

30.100 30.100

28.220 28.220
29.010 29.010

31.900 31.900

30.320 30.320

34.280 34.280
34.520 34.520

33.240 33.240

34.420 34.420

33.780 33.780
36.300 36.300

37.320 37.320

38.930 38.930

41.500 41.500
40.800 40.800

42.100 42.100 Mínimo

40.17 40.971 40.17
40.61 41.737 40.61
41.22 42.067 41.22
42.03 42.761 42.03
41.16 42.230 41.16
39.91 41.199 39.91
40.78 41.712 40.78
38.84 40.234 38.84
40.09 41.554 40.09
41.86 43.117 41.86
42.43 43.601 42.43
45.139 40.52 42.432 41.846 40.52
41.92 43.031 41.92
42.36 43.456 42.36
42.99 43.921 42.96
43.83 44.503 43.45
42.92 43.879 42.92
41.61 42.789 41.61
42.51 43.299 42.51
40.48 41.746 40.48
41.78 43.094 41.78
43.62 44.696 43.62
44.21 45.185 44.21
46.921 42.21 44.208 43.371 42.21
43.66 44.590 43.56
44.12 45.020 44.12
44.76 45.499 44.16
45.63 46.094 44.65
44.68 45.447 44.12
43.31 44.318 43.31
44.24 44.840 43.90
42.12 43.231 42.12
43.47 44.617 43.47
45.38 46.266 45.25
 45.98 46.767 45.63
48.691 43.90 45.983 44.901 43.90
45.40 46.158 44.76
45.87 46.595 45.36
46.54 47.091 45.37
47.43 47.701 45.86
46.44 47.033 45.33
45.01 45.866 44.68
45.97 46.401 45.11
43.77 44.736 43.77
45.16 46.162 45.16
47.14 47.860 46.45
47.76 48.373 46.83
50.528 45.59 47.759 46.454 45.16
47.14 47.749 45.97
47.63 48.194 46.57
48.31 48.708 46.58
49.24 49.333 47.07
48.20 48.644 46.54
46.71 47.439 45.89
47.70 47.986 46.31
45.41 46.263 45.41
46.85 47.731 46.58
48.89 49.478 47.66
49.53 50.004 48.04
52.438 47.28 49.535 48.031 46.36
48.88 49.364 47.18
49.38 49.817 47.78
50.09 50.349 47.79
51.04 50.989 48.28
49.96 50.280 47.75
48.41 49.034 47.10
49.43 49.595 47.53
47.05 47.814 46.84
48.54 49.323 47.79
50.65 51.121 48.87
51.31 51.660 49.25
54.421 48.97 51.310 49.632 47.57
50.63 51.004 48.39
51.14 51.465 49.00
51.86 52.014 49.01
52.84 52.671 49.50
51.72 51.939 48.97
50.11 50.654 48.32
51.16 51.227 48.74
48.69 49.387 48.05
50.23 50.939 49.00
52.41 52.788 50.08
53.09 53.341 50.46
56.479 50.66 53.086 51.257 48.78
 52.37 52.668 49.60
52.89 53.136 50.21
53.64 53.705 50.22
54.65 54.376 50.71
53.47 53.623 50.18
51.81 52.297 49.53
52.90 52.883 49.95
50.34 50.982 49.26
51.92 52.578 50.21
54.17 54.480 51.29
54.86 55.046 51.67
58.610 52.35 54.862 52.904 49.99
54.11 54.355 50.81
54.65 54.832 51.42
55.41 55.419 51.43
56.45 56.107 51.92
55.23 55.331 51.38
53.51 53.963 50.73
54.63 54.563 51.15
51.98 52.600 50.46
53.61 54.240 51.42
55.93 56.195 52.50
56.64 56.775 52.87
60.816 54.04 56.637 54.575 51.19
55.85 56.067 52.02
56.40 56.551 52.62
57.18 57.157 52.63
58.25 57.861 53.12
56.99 57.063 52.59
55.21 55.652 51.94
56.36 56.265 52.36
53.62 54.239 51.67
55.30 55.925 52.62
57.68 57.934 53.70
58.41 58.528 54.08
63.096 55.73 58.413 56.269 52.40
57.59 57.802 53.22
58.15 58.294 53.83
58.96 58.919 53.84
60.05 59.639 54.33
58.75 58.819 53.79
56.91 57.364 53.14
58.09 57.990 53.56
55.26 55.900 52.87
56.99 57.633 53.82
59.44 59.697 54.90
60.19 60.305 55.28
65.450 57.42 60.189 57.986 53.60
59.34 59.560 54.43
59.91 60.060 55.03
 60.73 60.705 55.04
61.86 61.442 55.53
60.51 60.598 54.99
58.61 59.099 54.34
59.82 59.738 54.76
56.90 57.583 54.07
58.68 59.363 55.02
61.20 61.484 56.10
61.96 62.106 56.47
67.879 59.11 61.964 59.726 54.80
61.08 61.342 55.62
61.66 61.850 56.23
62.51 62.515 56.24
63.66 63.268 56.73
62.27 62.401 56.19
60.31 60.856 55.54
61.55 61.510 55.96
58.55 59.288 55.27
60.37 61.116 56.22
62.96 63.294 57.30
63.74 63.931 57.67
70.382 60.80 63.740 61.488 55.99
62.82 63.147 56.82
63.42 63.663 57.42
64.28 64.349 57.43
65.46 65.118 57.92
64.03 64.227 57.39
62.01 62.637 56.73
63.28 63.304 57.15
60.19 61.015 56.46
62.05 62.892 57.41
64.72 65.128 58.49
65.52 65.779 58.86
72.960 62.48 65.516 63.273 57.18
64.56 64.976 58.01
65.17 65.500 58.61
66.06 66.206 58.62
67.26 66.993 59.11
65.79 66.078 58.58
63.71 64.440 57.92
65.01 65.120 58.34
61.83 62.763 57.65
63.74 64.691 58.60
66.47 66.986 59.68
67.29 67.652 60.05
75.612 64.17 67.291 65.081 58.37
66.30 66.828 59.20
66.93 67.360 59.80
67.83 68.087 59.81
69.07 68.891 60.30
 67.55 67.951 59.76
65.41 66.267 59.11
66.74 66.960 59.53
63.47 64.533 58.84
65.43 66.511 59.79
68.23 68.867 60.86
69.07 69.548 61.24
78.340 65.86 69.068 66.912 59.55
68.05 68.704 60.38
68.68 69.243 60.99
69.60 69.992 61.00
70.87 70.813 61.48
69.31 69.849 60.95
67.11 68.115 60.29
68.47 68.823 60.71
65.12 66.324 60.02
67.12 68.355 60.97
69.99 70.771 62.04
70.84 71.467 62.42
81.142 67.55 70.870 68.765 60.74
69.79 70.603 61.56
70.44 71.150 62.17
71.38 71.921 62.18
72.67 72.759 62.66
71.07 71.770 62.13
68.81 69.987 61.47
70.20 70.708 61.89
66.76 68.137 61.20
68.81 70.221 62.15
71.75 72.699 63.22
72.62 73.411 63.59
84.019 69.24 72.673 70.641 61.91
71.53 72.525 62.74
72.19 73.080 63.34
73.15 73.873 63.35
74.48 74.728 63.84
72.83 73.714 63.30
70.51 71.882 62.65
71.93 72.616 63.06
68.40 69.972 62.37
70.50 72.110 63.32
73.50 74.651 64.40
74.39 75.378 64.77
86.972 70.93 74.476 72.540 63.09
Máxima Anual Máxima Anual Máxima Anual
ARIMA T-crecimiento % Cuadrática T-crecimiento % Holt Winters
22.50 22.50 22.50
24.74 10.0% 24.74 10.0% 24.74
26.00 5.1% 26.00 5.1% 26.00
23.84 -8.3% 23.84 -8.3% 23.84
25.08 5.2% 25.08 5.2% 25.08
29.68 18.3% 29.68 18.3% 29.68
30.10 1.4% 30.10 1.4% 30.10
28.22 -6.2% 28.22 -6.2% 28.22
29.01 2.8% 29.01 2.8% 29.01
31.90 10.0% 31.90 10.0% 31.90
30.32 -5.0% 30.32 -5.0% 30.32
34.28 13.1% 34.28 13.1% 34.28
34.52 0.7% 34.52 0.7% 34.52
33.24 -3.7% 33.24 -3.7% 33.24
34.42 3.5% 34.42 3.5% 34.42
33.78 -1.9% 33.78 -1.9% 33.78
36.30 7.5% 36.30 7.5% 36.30
37.32 2.8% 37.32 2.8% 37.32
38.93 4.3% 38.93 4.3% 38.93
41.50 6.6% 41.50 6.6% 41.50
40.80 -1.7% 40.80 -1.7% 40.80
42.10 3.2% 42.10 3.2% 42.10
43.23 2.7% 45.14 7.2% 42.43
44.43 2.8% 46.92 3.9% 44.21
45.63 2.7% 48.69 3.8% 45.98
46.83 2.6% 50.53 3.8% 47.76
48.04 2.6% 52.44 3.8% 49.53
49.25 2.5% 54.42 3.8% 51.31
50.46 2.5% 56.48 3.8% 53.09
51.67 2.4% 58.61 3.8% 54.86
52.87 2.3% 60.82 3.8% 56.64
54.08 2.3% 63.10 3.7% 58.41
55.28 2.2% 65.45 3.7% 60.19
56.47 2.2% 67.88 3.7% 61.96
57.67 2.1% 70.38 3.7% 63.74
58.86 2.1% 72.96 3.7% 65.52
60.05 2.0% 75.61 3.6% 67.29
61.24 2.0% 78.34 3.6% 69.07
62.42 1.9% 81.14 3.6% 70.87
63.59 1.9% 84.02 3.5% 72.67
64.77 1.8% 86.97 3.5% 74.48
 COMBINACIÓN LINEAL DE PRONÓSTICOS

Promedio Máximo
40.97 41.82
41.74 42.92
42.07 43.46
42.76 44.01
42.23 43.81
41.20 42.61
41.71 42.85
40.23 41.05
41.55 42.80
43.12 44.64
43.60 45.14
42.432 41.85 43.601 43.46 45.139
43.03 44.82
43.46 45.05
43.92 45.82
44.50 46.23
43.88 45.80
42.79 44.48
43.30 44.69
41.75 42.75
43.09 44.54
44.70 46.42
45.18 46.92
44.208 43.37 45.185 45.16 46.921
44.59 46.55
45.02 46.79
45.50 47.57
46.09 48.00
45.45 47.54
44.32 46.17
44.84 46.38
43.23 44.36
44.62 46.22
46.27 48.17
 46.77 48.69
45.627 44.90 46.767 46.85 48.691
46.16 48.31
46.59 48.55
47.09 49.36
47.70 49.81
47.03 49.33
45.87 47.91
46.40 48.12
44.74 46.02
46.16 47.96
47.86 49.99
48.37 50.53
46.833 46.45 48.373 48.62 50.528
47.75 50.13
48.19 50.38
48.71 51.23
49.33 51.69
48.64 51.19
47.44 49.71
47.99 49.94
46.26 47.76
47.73 49.76
49.48 51.88
50.00 52.44
48.041 48.03 50.004 50.45 52.438
49.36 52.02
49.82 52.29
50.35 53.16
50.99 53.64
50.28 53.13
49.03 51.59
49.59 51.83
47.81 49.55
49.32 51.64
51.12 53.84
51.66 54.42
49.249 49.63 51.660 52.36 54.421
51.00 53.99
51.46 54.26
52.01 55.18
52.67 55.67
51.94 55.14
50.65 53.54
51.23 53.78
49.39 51.42
50.94 53.59
52.79 55.87
53.34 56.48
50.458 51.26 53.341 54.33 56.479
 52.67 56.03
53.14 56.31
53.70 57.26
54.38 57.78
53.62 57.22
52.30 55.55
52.88 55.81
50.98 53.36
52.58 55.61
54.48 57.98
55.05 58.61
51.666 52.90 55.046 56.38 58.610
54.36 58.14
54.83 58.43
55.42 59.42
56.11 59.96
55.33 59.38
53.96 57.64
54.56 57.91
52.60 55.36
54.24 57.70
56.20 60.16
56.77 60.82
52.872 54.58 56.775 58.50 60.816
56.07 60.33
56.55 60.63
57.16 61.65
57.86 62.21
57.06 61.61
55.65 59.81
56.26 60.08
54.24 57.43
55.93 59.86
57.93 62.42
58.53 63.10
54.075 56.27 58.528 60.69 63.096
57.80 62.59
58.29 62.90
58.92 63.96
59.64 64.54
58.82 63.91
57.36 62.04
57.99 62.32
55.90 59.57
57.63 62.09
59.70 64.75
60.31 65.45
55.277 57.99 60.305 62.95 65.450
59.56 64.92
60.06 65.24
 60.71 66.34
61.44 66.94
60.60 66.29
59.10 64.34
59.74 64.64
57.58 61.77
59.36 64.39
61.48 67.15
62.11 67.88
56.475 59.73 62.106 65.28 67.879
61.34 67.32
61.85 67.66
62.52 68.80
63.27 69.42
62.40 68.74
60.86 66.72
61.51 67.02
59.29 64.05
61.12 66.77
63.29 69.63
63.93 70.38
57.670 61.49 63.931 67.68 70.382
63.15 69.80
63.66 70.15
64.35 71.33
65.12 71.97
64.23 71.27
62.64 69.17
63.30 69.48
61.01 66.39
62.89 69.21
65.13 72.18
65.78 72.96
58.862 63.27 65.779 70.15 72.960
64.98 72.36
65.50 72.71
66.21 73.94
66.99 74.60
66.08 73.87
64.44 71.69
65.12 72.01
62.76 68.81
64.69 71.73
66.99 74.81
67.65 75.61
60.051 65.08 67.652 72.70 75.612
66.83 74.98
67.36 75.35
68.09 76.62
68.89 77.31
 67.95 76.54
66.27 74.28
66.96 74.61
64.53 71.29
66.51 74.32
68.87 77.51
69.55 78.34
61.236 66.91 69.548 75.32 78.340
68.70 77.68
69.24 78.06
69.99 79.38
70.81 80.08
69.85 79.29
68.12 76.94
68.82 77.29
66.32 73.84
68.36 76.97
70.77 80.28
71.47 81.14
62.417 68.77 71.467 78.01 81.142
70.60 80.46
71.15 80.85
71.92 82.21
72.76 82.94
71.77 82.11
69.99 79.68
70.71 80.03
68.14 76.46
70.22 79.71
72.70 83.13
73.41 84.02
63.595 70.64 73.411 80.77 84.019
72.53 83.30
73.08 83.71
73.87 85.12
74.73 85.87
73.71 85.01
71.88 82.49
72.62 82.85
69.97 79.14
72.11 82.51
74.65 86.05
75.38 86.97
64.768 72.54 75.378 83.60 86.972
 Máxima Anual Diferencia Diferencia Diferencia Holt
T-crecimiento % Portuguesa ARIMA CUADRATICA Winters

10.0%
5.1%
-8.3%
5.2%
18.3%
1.4%
-6.2%
2.8%
10.0%
-5.0%
13.1%
0.7%
-3.7%
3.5%
-1.9%
7.5%
2.8%
4.3%
6.6%
-1.7% 44.86 4.063 4.063 4.06
3.2% 44.76 2.664 2.664 2.66
0.8% 43.55 0.315 1.591 1.12
4.2% 44.67 0.245 2.250 0.46
4.0% 45.79 0.167 2.897 0.19
3.9% 46.92 0.085 3.611 0.84
3.7% 48.04 0.000 4.398 1.49
3.6% 49.16 0.086 5.258 2.15
3.5% 50.29 0.172 6.192 2.80
3.3% 51.41 0.256 7.201 3.45
3.2%
3.1% Promedio de diferencias
3.0% 0.805 4.012 1.923
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
Año Dmáx %Crec. %Crec.
2007 0.00
2008 43.60 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2009 45.18 3.6% 3.63%
2010 46.77 3.5% 3.50%
2011 48.37 3.4% 3.43%
2012 50.00 3.4% 3.37%
2013 51.66 3.3% 3.31%
2014 53.34 3.3% 3.25%
2015 55.05 3.2% 3.20%
2016 56.77 3.1% 3.14%
2017 58.53 3.1% 3.09%
2018 60.31 3.0% 3.04%
2019 62.11 3.0% 2.99%
2020 63.93 2.9% 2.94%
2021 65.78 2.9% 2.89%
2022 67.65 2.8% 2.85%
2023 69.55 2.8% 2.80%
2024 71.47 2.8% 2.76%
2025 73.41 2.7% 2.72%
2026 75.38 2.7% 2.68%
 80.00

Potencia (MW)
70.00
Acarigua II
Pronóstico ARIMA
60.00 Pronóstico HOLT WINTERS
Promedio
50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
6 9 2 5 8 1 04 07 10 3 6
n -8 n -8 n -9 n-
9
n -9 n -0 n- n- n- n-
1
n -1
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja a a
J TiempoJ (Años) J a Ja Ja
07 -1
0 1 3
-1
6
-1
9
-2
2
-2
5
n n- n n n n
ños) Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja
 S/E ARAURE Modelo Holt Winter_M Modelo Holt Winter_A
Jan-86 0.000
Feb-86 0.000
Mar-86 0.000
Apr-86 0.000
May-86 0.000
Jun-86 0.000
Jul-86 0.000
Aug-86 0.000
Sep-86 0.000
Oct-86 0.000
Nov-86 0.000
Dec-86 0.000 0.000
Jan-87 0.000
Feb-87 0.000
Mar-87 0.000
Apr-87 0.000
May-87 0.000
Jun-87 0.000
Jul-87 0.000
Aug-87 0.000
Sep-87 0.000
Oct-87 0.000
Nov-87 0.000
Dec-87 0.000 0.000
Jan-88 0.000
Feb-88 0.000
Mar-88 0.000
Apr-88 0.000
May-88 0.000
Jun-88 0.000
Jul-88 0.000
Aug-88 0.000
Sep-88 0.000
Oct-88 0.000
Nov-88 0.000
Dec-88 0.000 0.000
Jan-89 0.000
Feb-89 0.000
Mar-89 0.000
Apr-89 0.000
May-89 0.000
Jun-89 0.000
Jul-89 0.000
Aug-89 0.000
Sep-89 0.000
Oct-89 0.000
Nov-89 0.000
Dec-89 0.000 0.000
Jan-90 0.000
Feb-90 0.000
Mar-90 0.000
Apr-90 0.000
May-90 0.000
Jun-90 0.000
Jul-90 0.000
Aug-90 0.000
Sep-90 0.000
Oct-90 0.000
Nov-90 0.000
Dec-90 0.000 0.000
Jan-91 0.000
Feb-91 0.000
Mar-91 0.000
Apr-91 0.000
May-91 0.000
Jun-91 0.000
Jul-91 0.000
Aug-91 0.000
Sep-91 0.000
Oct-91 0.000
Nov-91 0.000
Dec-91 0.000 0.000
Jan-92 0.000
Feb-92 0.000
Mar-92 0.000
Apr-92 0.000
May-92 0.000
Jun-92 0.000
Jul-92 0.000
Aug-92 0.000
Sep-92 0.000
Oct-92 0.000
Nov-92 0.000
Dec-92 0.000 0.000
Jan-93 0.000
Feb-93 0.000
Mar-93 0.000
Apr-93 0.000
May-93 0.000
Jun-93 0.000
Jul-93 0.000
Aug-93 0.000
Sep-93 0.000
Oct-93 0.000
Nov-93 0.000
Dec-93 0.000 0.000
Jan-94 0.000
Feb-94 0.000
Mar-94 0.000
Apr-94 0.000
May-94 0.000
Jun-94 0.000
Jul-94 0.000
Aug-94 0.000
Sep-94 0.000
Oct-94 0.000
Nov-94 0.000
Dec-94 0.000 0.000
Jan-95 0.000
Feb-95 0.000
Mar-95 0.000
Apr-95 0.000
May-95 0.000
Jun-95 0.000
Jul-95 0.000
Aug-95 0.000
Sep-95 0.000
Oct-95 0.000
Nov-95 0.000
Dec-95 0.000 0.000
Jan-96 0.000
Feb-96 0.000
Mar-96 0.000
Apr-96 0.000
May-96 0.000
Jun-96 0.000
Jul-96 0.000
Aug-96 0.000
Sep-96 0.000
Oct-96 0.000
Nov-96 0.000
Dec-96 0.000 0.000
Jan-97 0.000
Feb-97 0.000
Mar-97 0.000
Apr-97 0.000
May-97 0.000
Jun-97 0.000
Jul-97 0.000
Aug-97 0.000
Sep-97 0.000
Oct-97 0.000
Nov-97 0.000
Dec-97 0.000 0.000
Jan-98 0.000
Feb-98 0.000
Mar-98 0.000
Apr-98 0.000
May-98 0.000
Jun-98 0.000
Jul-98 0.000
Aug-98 0.000
Sep-98 0.000
Oct-98 0.000
Nov-98 0.000
Dec-98 0.000 0.000
Jan-99 0.000
Feb-99 0.000
Mar-99 0.000
Apr-99 0.000
May-99 0.000
Jun-99 0.000
Jul-99 0.000
Aug-99 0.000
Sep-99 0.000
Oct-99 0.000
Nov-99 0.000
Dec-99 0.000 0.000
Jan-00 0.000
Feb-00 0.000
Mar-00 0.000
Apr-00 0.000
May-00 0.000
Jun-00 13.550
Jul-00 14.760
Aug-00 11.580
Sep-00 16.760
Oct-00 17.980
Nov-00 17.760
Dec-00 19.140 19.140
Jan-01 14.920
Feb-01 16.440
Mar-01 19.600
Apr-01 16.060
May-01 17.040
Jun-01 15.490
Jul-01 15.900
Aug-01 20.510
Sep-01 20.740
Oct-01 22.090
Nov-01 23.270
Dec-01 21.420 23.270
Jan-02 21.600
Feb-02 20.710
Mar-02 21.310
Apr-02 21.970
May-02 19.340
Jun-02 16.910
Jul-02 17.040
Aug-02 16.620
Sep-02 21.870
Oct-02 22.550
Nov-02 24.960
Dec-02 17.280 24.960
Jan-03 17.120
Feb-03 18.390
Mar-03 24.390
Apr-03 21.220
May-03 22.850
Jun-03 18.060
Jul-03 19.730
Aug-03 25.670
Sep-03 22.200
Oct-03 21.500
Nov-03 25.090
Dec-03 16.720 25.670
Jan-04 20.010
Feb-04 18.440
Mar-04 16.520
Apr-04 19.550
May-04 16.450
Jun-04 16.010
Jul-04 16.030
Aug-04 20.360
Sep-04 23.060
Oct-04 23.020
Nov-04 25.530
Dec-04 24.000 25.530
Jan-05 23.940
Feb-05 23.290
Mar-05 24.580
Apr-05 23.940
May-05 24.020
Jun-05 21.700
Jul-05 23.940
Aug-05 22.200
Sep-05 23.410
Oct-05 23.48
Nov-05 23.56
Dec-05 23.48 24.580
Jan-06 22.74
Feb-06 23.30
Mar-06 26.83
Apr-06 27.51
May-06 24.43
Jun-06 30.27
Jul-06 32.36
Aug-06 31.10
Sep-06 32.40
Oct-06 35.09
Nov-06 35.20
Dec-06 32.08 35.200
Jan-07 31.89
Feb-07 33.25
Mar-07 34.89
Apr-07 30.00
May-07 33.84
Jun-07 31.90
Jul-07 29.39
Aug-07 32.01
Sep-07 32.26
Oct-07 30.35
Nov-07 31.81
Dec-07 30.15 32.260
Jan-08 28.86 29.58
Feb-08 29.08 29.81
Mar-08 31.85 31.85
Apr-08 30.34 30.73
May-08 29.63 30.40
Jun-08 27.87 29.42
Jul-08 29.38 30.53
Aug-08 31.09 31.72
Sep-08 33.92 33.49
Oct-08 34.84 34.24
Nov-08 36.86 35.62
Dec-08 32.21 36.856 32.59
Jan-09 31.49 32.31
Feb-09 31.70 32.54
Mar-09 34.71 34.59
Apr-09 33.04 33.46
May-09 32.25 33.14
Jun-09 30.31 32.16
Jul-09 31.93 33.27
Aug-09 33.78 34.45
Sep-09 36.83 36.22
Oct-09 37.80 36.97
Nov-09 39.97 38.35
Dec-09 34.92 39.972 35.32
Jan-10 34.11 35.05
Feb-10 34.32 35.28
Mar-10 37.56 37.32
Apr-10 35.74 36.19
May-10 34.86 35.87
Jun-10 32.75 34.89
Jul-10 34.49 36.00
Aug-10 36.46 37.18
Sep-10 39.74 38.96
Oct-10 40.77 39.71
Nov-10 43.09 41.09
Dec-10 37.62 43.088 38.05
Jan-11 36.74 37.78
Feb-11 36.95 38.01
Mar-11 40.41 40.05
Apr-11 38.43 38.93
May-11 37.48 38.60
Jun-11 35.20 37.62
Jul-11 37.04 38.73
Aug-11 39.15 39.92
Sep-11 42.65 41.69
Oct-11 43.73 42.44
Nov-11 46.20 43.82
Dec-11 40.33 46.205 40.79
Jan-12 39.36 40.51
Feb-12 39.57 40.74
Mar-12 43.27 42.79
Apr-12 41.13 41.66
May-12 40.09 41.34
Jun-12 37.64 40.36
Jul-12 39.60 41.47
Aug-12 41.83 42.65
Sep-12 45.56 44.42
Oct-12 46.70 45.17
Nov-12 49.32 46.55
Dec-12 43.03 49.321 43.52
Jan-13 41.99 43.25
Feb-13 42.20 43.48
Mar-13 46.12 45.52
Apr-13 43.83 44.39
May-13 42.71 44.07
Jun-13 40.08 43.09
Jul-13 42.15 44.20
Aug-13 44.52 45.38
Sep-13 48.47 47.15
Oct-13 49.67 47.91
Nov-13 52.44 49.29
Dec-13 45.73 52.437 46.25
Jan-14 44.61 45.98
Feb-14 44.82 46.21
Mar-14 48.98 48.25
Apr-14 46.53 47.13
May-14 45.33 46.80
Jun-14 42.52 45.82
Jul-14 44.71 46.93
Aug-14 47.20 48.12
Sep-14 51.38 49.89
Oct-14 52.63 50.64
Nov-14 55.55 52.02
Dec-14 48.44 55.553 48.98
Jan-15 47.24 48.71
Feb-15 47.45 48.94
Mar-15 51.83 50.98
Apr-15 49.23 49.86
May-15 47.94 49.53
Jun-15 44.97 48.56
Jul-15 47.27 49.67
Aug-15 49.89 50.85
Sep-15 54.29 52.62
Oct-15 55.60 53.37
Nov-15 58.67 54.75
Dec-15 51.14 58.669 51.72
Jan-16 49.86 51.45
Feb-16 50.07 51.67
Mar-16 54.68 53.72
Apr-16 51.92 52.59
May-16 50.56 52.27
Jun-16 47.41 51.29
Jul-16 49.82 52.40
Aug-16 52.57 53.58
Sep-16 57.20 55.35
Oct-16 58.56 56.11
Nov-16 61.78 57.49
Dec-16 53.85 61.785 54.45
Jan-17 52.49 54.18
Feb-17 52.70 54.41
Mar-17 57.54 56.45
Apr-17 54.62 55.33
May-17 53.17 55.00
Jun-17 49.85 54.02
Jul-17 52.38 55.13
Aug-17 55.26 56.32
Sep-17 60.11 58.09
Oct-17 61.53 58.84
Nov-17 64.90 60.22
Dec-17 56.55 64.901 57.18
Jan-18 55.11 56.91
Feb-18 55.32 57.14
Mar-18 60.39 59.18
Apr-18 57.32 58.06
May-18 55.79 57.73
Jun-18 52.29 56.76
Jul-18 54.93 57.87
Aug-18 57.95 59.05
Sep-18 63.02 60.82
Oct-18 64.50 61.57
Nov-18 68.02 62.95
Dec-18 59.26 68.017 59.92
Jan-19 57.74 59.65
Feb-19 57.95 59.87
Mar-19 63.25 61.92
Apr-19 60.02 60.79
May-19 58.40 60.47
Jun-19 54.73 59.49
Jul-19 57.49 60.60
Aug-19 60.63 61.78
Sep-19 65.92 63.55
Oct-19 67.46 64.31
Nov-19 71.13 65.69
Dec-19 61.96 71.133 62.65
Jan-20 60.36 62.38
Feb-20 60.57 62.61
Mar-20 66.10 64.65
Apr-20 62.72 63.53
May-20 61.02 63.20
Jun-20 57.18 62.22
Jul-20 60.04 63.33
Aug-20 63.32 64.51
Sep-20 68.83 66.29
Oct-20 70.43 67.04
Nov-20 74.25 68.42
Dec-20 64.67 74.249 65.38
Jan-21 62.99 65.11
Feb-21 63.20 65.34
Mar-21 68.95 67.38
Apr-21 65.41 66.26
May-21 63.64 65.93
Jun-21 59.62 64.95
Jul-21 62.60 66.06
Aug-21 66.00 67.25
Sep-21 71.74 69.02
Oct-21 73.40 69.77
Nov-21 77.37 71.15
Dec-21 67.37 77.365 68.12
Jan-22 65.62 67.84
Feb-22 65.82 68.07
Mar-22 71.81 70.12
Apr-22 68.11 68.99
May-22 66.25 68.67
Jun-22 62.06 67.69
Jul-22 65.16 68.80
Aug-22 68.69 69.98
Sep-22 74.65 71.75
Oct-22 76.36 72.50
Nov-22 80.48 73.88
Dec-22 70.07 80.481 70.85
Jan-23 68.24 70.58
Feb-23 68.44 70.81
Mar-23 74.66 72.85
Apr-23 70.81 71.72
May-23 68.87 71.40
Jun-23 64.50 70.42
Jul-23 67.71 71.53
Aug-23 71.37 72.71
Sep-23 77.56 74.48
Oct-23 79.33 75.24
Nov-23 83.60 76.62
Dec-23 72.78 83.597 73.58
Jan-24 70.87 73.31
Feb-24 71.07 73.54
Mar-24 77.52 75.58
Apr-24 73.51 74.46
May-24 71.48 74.13
Jun-24 66.95 73.15
Jul-24 70.27 74.26
Aug-24 74.06 75.45
Sep-24 80.47 77.22
Oct-24 82.29 77.97
Nov-24 86.71 79.35
Dec-24 75.48 86.713 76.31
Jan-25 73.49 76.04
Feb-25 73.69 76.27
Mar-25 80.37 78.31
Apr-25 76.21 77.19
May-25 74.10 76.86
Jun-25 69.39 75.89
Jul-25 72.82 77.00
Aug-25 76.74 78.18
Sep-25 83.38 79.95
Oct-25 85.26 80.70
Nov-25 89.83 82.08
Dec-25 78.19 89.829 79.05
Jan-26 76.12 78.78
Feb-26 76.32 79.01
Mar-26 83.22 81.05
Apr-26 78.91 79.92
May-26 76.71 79.60
Jun-26 71.83 78.62
Jul-26 75.38 79.73
Aug-26 79.43 80.91
Sep-26 86.29 82.68
Oct-26 88.23 83.44
Nov-26 92.95 84.82
Dec-26 80.89 92.945 81.78
 Máxima Anual Máxima Anual
Modelo Holt Winter_A AÑO Holt Winters T-crecimiento % Holt Winters
1986 0.00 0.00
1987 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
1988 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
1989 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
1990 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
1991 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
1992 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
1993 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
1994 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
1995 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
1996 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
0.000 1997 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
1998 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
1999 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00
2000 19.14 #DIV/0! 19.14
2001 23.27 21.6% 23.27
2002 24.96 7.3% 24.96
2003 25.67 2.8% 25.67
2004 25.53 -0.5% 25.53
2005 24.58 -3.7% 24.58
2006 35.20 43.2% 35.20
2007 32.26 -8.4% 32.26
2008 36.86 14.2% 35.62
0.000 2009 39.97 8.5% 38.35
2010 43.09 7.8% 41.09
2011 46.20 7.2% 43.82
2012 49.32 6.7% 46.55
2013 52.44 6.3% 49.29
2014 55.55 5.9% 52.02
2015 58.67 5.6% 54.75
2016 61.78 5.3% 57.49
2017 64.90 5.0% 60.22
2018 68.02 4.8% 62.95
2019 71.13 4.6% 65.69
2020 74.25 4.4% 68.42
0.000 2021 77.37 4.2% 71.15
2022 80.48 4.0% 73.88
2023 83.60 3.9% 76.62
2024 86.71 3.7% 79.35
2025 89.83 3.6% 82.08
2026 92.95 3.5% 84.82

0.000
0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000
0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000
0.000

0.000

19.140

23.270
24.960

25.670

25.530

24.580
35.200

32.260

35.622

38.355
41.088

43.821

46.554

49.287

52.020
54.753

57.486

60.219

62.952
65.685

68.418

71.152

73.885
76.618

79.351

82.084

84.817
 Máxima Anual Diferencia Anual Diferencia Anual
T-crecimiento % Portuguesa Holt Winters Holt Winters

#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
21.6%
7.3%
2.8%
-0.5%
-3.7%
43.2% 28.65 6.549 6.55
-8.4% 29.71 2.547 2.55
10.4% 30.80 6.055 4.82
7.7% 31.91 8.065 6.45
7.1% 33.01 10.074 8.07
6.7% 34.12 12.083 9.70
6.2% 35.23 14.092 11.33
5.9% 36.33 16.102 12.95
5.5% 37.44 18.111 14.58
5.3% 38.55 20.120 16.20
5.0%
4.8% Promedio de diferencias
4.5% 11.380 9.320
4.3%
4.2%
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
Dmáx %Crec.
32.26
0.00 -100.0%
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 #DIV/0!
 Potencia (MW)
100.00

10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00

0.00
Jan-86
Nov-86
Sep-87
Jul-88
May-89
Mar-90
Araure

Jan-91
Nov-91
Sep-92
Jul-93
May-94
Mar-95
Jan-96
Nov-96
Sep-97
Pronóstico HOLT WINTERS x

Pronóstico HOLT WINTERS +

Jul-98
May-99
Mar-00
Jan-01
Nov-01
Sep-02
Jul-03
May-04
Mar-05
Jan-06
Nov-06
Sep-07
Tiempo (Años)

Jul-08
May-09
Mar-10
Jan-11
Nov-11
Sep-12
Jul-13
May-14
Mar-15
Jan-16
 Sep-07

ños)
Jul-08
May-09
Mar-10
Jan-11
Nov-11
Sep-12
Jul-13
May-14
Mar-15
Jan-16
Nov-16
Sep-17
Jul-18
May-19
Mar-20
Jan-21
Nov-21
Sep-22
Jul-23
May-24
Mar-25
Jan-26
Nov-26
 S/E GUANARE Modelo ARIMA Modelo Holt Winter (0,0.05,0)
Jan-86 19.410
Feb-86 19.390
Mar-86 19.890
Apr-86 19.080
May-86 18.800
Jun-86 18.550
Jul-86 21.430
Aug-86 18.350
Sep-86 18.900
Oct-86 18.640
Nov-86 19.470
Dec-86 20.180 21.430
Jan-87 20.560
Feb-87 21.220
Mar-87 21.760
Apr-87 21.760
May-87 20.510
Jun-87 19.790
Jul-87 19.810
Aug-87 20.020
Sep-87 20.220
Oct-87 21.390
Nov-87 21.720
Dec-87 22.300 22.300
Jan-88 22.320
Feb-88 22.560
Mar-88 23.700
Apr-88 24.130
May-88 24.410
Jun-88 23.160
Jul-88 22.020
Aug-88 26.180
Sep-88 24.320
Oct-88 24.240
Nov-88 24.320
Dec-88 26.180 26.180
Jan-89 24.800
Feb-89 24.330
Mar-89 24.690
Apr-89 26.200
May-89 26.250
Jun-89 22.640
Jul-89 22.680
Aug-89 22.760
Sep-89 28.200
Oct-89 23.800
Nov-89 24.320
Dec-89 26.180 28.200
Jan-90 22.660
Feb-90 24.480
Mar-90 26.390
Apr-90 27.120
May-90 26.310
Jun-90 25.380
Jul-90 24.610
Aug-90 24.640
Sep-90 25.750
Oct-90 26.820
Nov-90 26.500
Dec-90 26.930 27.120
Jan-91 27.630
Feb-91 28.440
Mar-91 28.630
Apr-91 29.600
May-91 29.820
Jun-91 28.970
Jul-91 28.200
Aug-91 27.890
Sep-91 29.170
Oct-91 30.850
Nov-91 31.010
Dec-91 31.440 31.440
Jan-92 31.790
Feb-92 32.150
Mar-92 32.990
Apr-92 34.020
May-92 34.020
Jun-92 32.230
Jul-92 31.230
Aug-92 34.380
Sep-92 30.990
Oct-92 32.890
Nov-92 35.270
Dec-92 34.590 35.270
Jan-93 34.380
Feb-93 34.790
Mar-93 36.550
Apr-93 35.540
May-93 34.600
Jun-93 34.440
Jul-93 33.590
Aug-93 34.010
Sep-93 33.820
Oct-93 36.650
Nov-93 36.990
Dec-93 36.560 36.990
Jan-94 37.360
Feb-94 37.010
Mar-94 35.330
Apr-94 35.150
May-94 33.920
Jun-94 33.110
Jul-94 29.930
Aug-94 32.330
Sep-94 32.680
Oct-94 39.540
Nov-94 34.870
Dec-94 36.480 39.540
Jan-95 35.460
Feb-95 36.100
Mar-95 37.560
Apr-95 37.780
May-95 37.330
Jun-95 34.830
Jul-95 34.380
Aug-95 35.060
Sep-95 36.510
Oct-95 37.340
Nov-95 37.540
Dec-95 39.730 39.730
Jan-96 40.240
Feb-96 40.500
Mar-96 40.430
Apr-96 41.690
May-96 40.380
Jun-96 38.210
Jul-96 38.720
Aug-96 38.440
Sep-96 39.370
Oct-96 41.200
Nov-96 39.330
Dec-96 40.980 41.690
Jan-97 42.280
Feb-97 40.780
Mar-97 42.510
Apr-97 42.240
May-97 41.830
Jun-97 41.910
Jul-97 40.710
Aug-97 39.820
Sep-97 40.580
Oct-97 39.560
Nov-97 39.840
Dec-97 40.870 42.510
Jan-98 43.160
Feb-98 45.780
Mar-98 43.720
Apr-98 42.800
May-98 42.050
Jun-98 36.980
Jul-98 36.880
Aug-98 36.780
Sep-98 39.940
Oct-98 45.970
Nov-98 45.280
Dec-98 45.290 45.970
Jan-99 45.380
Feb-99 43.870
Mar-99 46.920
Apr-99 45.050
May-99 48.180
Jun-99 48.190
Jul-99 48.190
Aug-99 43.570
Sep-99 46.530
Oct-99 51.670
Nov-99 45.810
Dec-99 48.750 51.670
Jan-00 48.090
Feb-00 48.780
Mar-00 50.890
Apr-00 51.580
May-00 50.670
Jun-00 50.250
Jul-00 49.400
Aug-00 49.770
Sep-00 51.010
Oct-00 52.750
Nov-00 53.990
Dec-00 53.500 53.990
Jan-01 53.500
Feb-01 56.770
Mar-01 56.780
Apr-01 51.810
May-01 52.070
Jun-01 53.180
Jul-01 52.970
Aug-01 55.150
Sep-01 57.180
Oct-01 59.430
Nov-01 59.020
Dec-01 59.670 59.670
Jan-02 61.690
Feb-02 58.910
Mar-02 59.050
Apr-02 60.900
May-02 61.130
Jun-02 56.540
Jul-02 58.030
Aug-02 64.500
Sep-02 59.820
Oct-02 63.500
Nov-02 65.150
Dec-02 62.480 65.150
Jan-03 58.970
Feb-03 62.040
Mar-03 62.640
Apr-03 63.850
May-03 60.280
Jun-03 60.430
Jul-03 65.090
Aug-03 61.070
Sep-03 59.310
Oct-03 62.570
Nov-03 62.120
Dec-03 68.480 68.480
Jan-04 63.130
Feb-04 67.700
Mar-04 68.120
Apr-04 67.450
May-04 63.940
Jun-04 60.440
Jul-04 60.050
Aug-04 62.660
Sep-04 66.550
Oct-04 66.940
Nov-04 70.130
Dec-04 73.330 73.330
Jan-05 73.440
Feb-05 70.160
Mar-05 73.300
Apr-05 73.300
May-05 69.860
Jun-05 72.180
Jul-05 68.110
Aug-05 71.590
Sep-05 70.450
Oct-05 73.08
Nov-05 77.03
Dec-05 75.45 77.030
Jan-06 74.42
Feb-06 71.29
Mar-06 78.25
Apr-06 76.67
May-06 74.25
Jun-06 73.40
Jul-06 65.45
Aug-06 66.62
Sep-06 82.82
Oct-06 73.00
Nov-06 72.87
Dec-06 74.61 82.820
Jan-07 79.06
Feb-07 81.57
Mar-07 66.91
Apr-07 71.13
May-07 69.25
Jun-07 63.06
Jul-07 60.55
Aug-07 61.97
Sep-07 57.04
Oct-07 64.92
Nov-07 64.74
Dec-07 66.90 66.900
Jan-08 66.15 66.04
Feb-08 65.65 66.58
Mar-08 66.96 67.28
Apr-08 66.55 67.28
May-08 66.15 65.93
Jun-08 65.75 63.29
Jul-08 65.35 62.33
Aug-08 64.96 63.02
Sep-08 65.92 64.42
Oct-08 67.78 66.61
Nov-08 67.38 66.37
Dec-08 68.90 68.899 67.92
Jan-09 68.50 67.74
Feb-09 68.10 68.28
Mar-09 69.45 69.00
Apr-09 69.05 69.00
May-09 68.65 67.61
Jun-09 68.26 64.89
Jul-09 67.86 63.91
Aug-09 67.46 64.62
Sep-09 68.43 66.04
Oct-09 70.28 68.29
Nov-09 69.88 68.04
Dec-09 71.40 71.404 69.62
Jan-10 71.01 69.43
Feb-10 70.61 69.99
Mar-10 71.95 70.72
Apr-10 71.56 70.71
May-10 71.16 69.29
Jun-10 70.76 66.50
Jul-10 70.36 65.49
Aug-10 69.97 66.21
Sep-10 70.93 67.67
Oct-10 72.79 69.97
Nov-10 72.39 69.71
Dec-10 73.91 73.910 71.33
Jan-11 73.51 71.13
Feb-11 73.12 71.69
Mar-11 74.46 72.44
Apr-11 74.06 72.43
May-11 73.67 70.97
Jun-11 73.27 68.11
Jul-11 72.87 67.07
Aug-11 72.47 67.80
Sep-11 73.44 69.30
Oct-11 75.29 71.65
Nov-11 74.90 71.37
Dec-11 76.42 76.416 73.03
Jan-12 76.02 72.82
Feb-12 75.62 73.40
Mar-12 76.97 74.16
Apr-12 76.57 74.15
May-12 76.17 72.65
Jun-12 75.77 69.72
Jul-12 75.38 68.65
Aug-12 74.98 69.40
Sep-12 75.94 70.92
Oct-12 77.80 73.32
Nov-12 77.40 73.04
Dec-12 78.92 78.922 74.73
Jan-13 78.52 74.52
Feb-13 78.13 75.11
Mar-13 79.47 75.88
Apr-13 79.07 75.86
May-13 78.68 74.33
Jun-13 78.28 71.32
Jul-13 77.88 70.23
Aug-13 77.48 70.99
Sep-13 78.45 72.55
Oct-13 80.30 75.00
Nov-13 79.91 74.71
Dec-13 81.43 81.427 76.44
Jan-14 81.03 76.21
Feb-14 80.63 76.81
Mar-14 81.98 77.60
Apr-14 81.58 77.58
May-14 81.18 76.00
Jun-14 80.78 72.93
Jul-14 80.39 71.81
Aug-14 79.99 72.59
Sep-14 80.96 74.17
Oct-14 82.81 76.68
Nov-14 82.41 76.38
Dec-14 83.93 83.933 78.14
Jan-15 83.54 77.91
Feb-15 83.14 78.52
Mar-15 84.48 79.32
Apr-15 84.09 79.29
May-15 83.69 77.68
Jun-15 83.29 74.54
Jul-15 82.89 73.39
Aug-15 82.50 74.18
Sep-15 83.46 75.80
Oct-15 85.32 78.36
Nov-15 84.92 78.05
Dec-15 86.44 86.439 79.84
Jan-16 86.04 79.60
Feb-16 85.64 80.22
Mar-16 86.99 81.04
Apr-16 86.59 81.01
May-16 86.19 79.36
Jun-16 85.80 76.15
Jul-16 85.40 74.97
Aug-16 85.00 75.77
Sep-16 85.97 77.43
Oct-16 87.82 80.04
Nov-16 87.42 79.72
Dec-16 88.94 88.945 81.55
Jan-17 88.55 81.30
Feb-17 88.15 81.93
Mar-17 89.49 82.75
Apr-17 89.10 82.73
May-17 88.70 81.04
Jun-17 88.30 77.75
Jul-17 87.90 76.55
Aug-17 87.51 77.37
Sep-17 88.47 79.05
Oct-17 90.33 81.71
Nov-17 89.93 81.38
Dec-17 91.45 91.450 83.25
Jan-18 91.05 82.99
Feb-18 90.66 83.63
Mar-18 92.00 84.47
Apr-18 91.60 84.44
May-18 91.21 82.72
Jun-18 90.81 79.36
Jul-18 90.41 78.13
Aug-18 90.01 78.96
Sep-18 90.98 80.68
Oct-18 92.83 83.39
Nov-18 92.44 83.05
Dec-18 93.96 93.956 84.95
Jan-19 93.56 84.69
Feb-19 93.16 85.34
Mar-19 94.51 86.19
Apr-19 94.11 86.16
May-19 93.71 84.40
Jun-19 93.31 80.97
Jul-19 92.92 79.71
Aug-19 92.52 80.56
Sep-19 93.48 82.30
Oct-19 95.34 85.07
Nov-19 94.94 84.72
Dec-19 96.46 96.462 86.66
Jan-20 96.06 86.39
Feb-20 95.67 87.04
Mar-20 97.01 87.91
Apr-20 96.61 87.88
May-20 96.22 86.07
Jun-20 95.82 82.58
Jul-20 95.42 81.29
Aug-20 95.02 82.15
Sep-20 95.99 83.93
Oct-20 97.84 86.75
Nov-20 97.45 86.39
Dec-20 98.97 98.967 88.36
Jan-21 98.57 88.08
Feb-21 98.17 88.75
Mar-21 99.52 89.63
Apr-21 99.12 89.59
May-21 98.72 87.75
Jun-21 98.33 84.18
Jul-21 97.93 82.87
Aug-21 97.53 83.75
Sep-21 98.50 85.56
Oct-21 100.35 88.43
Nov-21 99.95 88.06
Dec-21 101.47 101.473 90.07
Jan-22 101.08 89.78
Feb-22 100.68 90.46
Mar-22 102.02 91.35
Apr-22 101.63 91.31
May-22 101.23 89.43
Jun-22 100.83 85.79
Jul-22 100.43 84.45
Aug-22 100.04 85.34
Sep-22 101.00 87.18
Oct-22 102.86 90.10
Nov-22 102.46 89.72
Dec-22 103.98 103.979 91.77
Jan-23 103.58 91.47
Feb-23 103.18 92.16
Mar-23 104.53 93.07
Apr-23 104.13 93.02
May-23 103.73 91.11
Jun-23 103.34 87.40
Jul-23 102.94 86.03
Aug-23 102.54 86.93
Sep-23 103.51 88.81
Oct-23 105.36 91.78
Nov-23 104.96 91.39
Dec-23 106.48 106.485 93.47
Jan-24 106.09 93.17
Feb-24 105.69 93.87
Mar-24 107.03 94.79
Apr-24 106.64 94.74
May-24 106.24 92.79
Jun-24 105.84 89.01
Jul-24 105.44 87.61
Aug-24 105.05 88.53
Sep-24 106.01 90.43
Oct-24 107.87 93.46
Nov-24 107.47 93.06
Dec-24 108.99 108.990 95.18
Jan-25 108.59 94.86
Feb-25 108.20 95.57
Mar-25 109.54 96.51
Apr-25 109.14 96.46
May-25 108.75 94.47
Jun-25 108.35 90.61
Jul-25 107.95 89.19
Aug-25 107.55 90.12
Sep-25 108.52 92.06
Oct-25 110.37 95.14
Nov-25 109.98 94.73
Dec-25 111.50 111.496 96.88
Jan-26 111.10 96.56
Feb-26 110.70 97.28
Mar-26 112.05 98.23
Apr-26 111.65 98.17
May-26 111.25 96.14
Jun-26 110.85 92.22
Jul-26 110.46 90.77
Aug-26 110.06 91.72
Sep-26 111.02 93.69
Oct-26 112.88 96.81
Nov-26 112.48 96.40
Dec-26 114.00 114.002 98.58
 Máxima Anual
elo Holt Winter (0,0.05,0) Modelo Lineal AÑO ARIMA
1986 21.43
1987 22.30
1988 26.18
1989 28.20
1990 27.12
1991 31.44
1992 35.27
1993 36.99
1994 39.54
1995 39.73
1996 41.69
21.430 21.430 1997 42.51
1998 45.97
1999 51.67
2000 53.99
2001 59.67
2002 65.15
2003 68.48
2004 73.33
2005 77.03
2006 82.82
2007 66.90
2008 68.90
22.300 22.300 2009 71.40
2010 73.91
2011 76.42
2012 78.92
2013 81.43
2014 83.93
2015 86.44
2016 88.94
2017 91.45
2018 93.96
2019 96.46
2020 98.97
26.180 26.180 2021 101.47
2022 103.98
2023 106.48
2024 108.99
2025 111.50
2026 114.00

28.200 28.200
27.120 27.120

31.440 31.440

35.270 35.270

36.990 36.990
39.540 39.540

39.730 39.730

41.690 41.690

42.510 42.510
45.970 45.970

51.670 51.670

53.990 53.990

59.670 59.670
65.150 65.150

68.480 68.480

73.330 73.330

77.030 77.030
82.820 82.820

COMBINACIÓN LIN

66.900 66.900 Mínimo

67.80 66.04
67.77 65.65
69.98 66.96
70.58 66.55
69.10 65.93
66.99 63.29
65.71 62.33
66.77 63.02
68.43 64.42
70.81 66.61
71.72 66.37
67.919 73.62 73.615 67.92 67.919
73.88 67.74
73.66 68.10
75.82 69.00
76.14 69.00
74.29 67.61
71.82 64.89
70.24 63.91
71.19 64.62
72.79 66.04
75.15 68.29
75.96 68.04
69.623 77.82 77.819 69.62 69.623
77.96 69.43
77.61 69.99
79.77 70.72
79.99 70.71
77.95 69.29
75.26 66.50
73.53 65.49
74.44 66.21
76.04 67.67
78.44 69.97
 79.22 69.71
71.326 81.10 81.098 71.33 71.326
81.19 71.13
80.77 71.69
82.96 72.44
83.15 72.43
80.98 70.97
78.15 68.11
76.31 67.07
77.23 67.80
78.85 69.30
81.31 71.65
82.09 71.37
73.030 84.01 84.008 73.03 73.030
84.08 72.82
83.61 73.40
85.86 74.16
86.03 74.15
83.76 72.65
80.82 69.72
78.90 68.65
79.83 69.40
81.49 70.92
84.02 73.32
84.80 73.04
74.734 86.77 86.769 74.73 74.734
86.83 74.52
86.33 75.11
88.64 75.88
88.80 75.86
86.45 74.33
83.40 71.32
81.41 70.23
82.36 70.99
84.06 72.55
86.66 75.00
87.45 74.71
76.437 89.47 89.472 76.44 76.437
89.52 76.21
89.00 76.81
91.37 77.60
91.52 77.58
89.09 76.00
85.94 72.93
83.88 71.81
84.85 72.59
86.60 74.17
89.27 76.68
90.08 76.38
78.141 92.15 92.151 78.14 78.141
 92.19 77.91
91.65 78.52
94.08 79.32
94.23 79.29
91.72 77.68
88.47 74.54
86.35 73.39
87.34 74.18
89.13 75.80
91.87 78.36
92.70 78.05
79.844 94.82 94.821 79.84 79.844
94.86 79.60
94.29 80.22
96.79 81.04
96.94 81.01
94.35 79.36
91.00 76.15
88.80 74.97
89.82 75.77
91.65 77.43
94.46 80.04
95.31 79.72
81.548 97.49 97.487 81.55 81.548
97.52 81.30
96.93 81.93
99.49 82.75
99.63 82.73
96.97 81.04
93.52 77.75
91.26 76.55
92.29 77.37
94.18 79.05
97.05 81.71
97.92 81.38
83.251 100.15 100.151 83.25 83.251
100.18 82.99
99.57 83.63
102.19 84.47
102.33 84.44
99.59 82.72
96.04 79.36
93.71 78.13
94.77 78.96
96.70 80.68
99.65 83.39
100.53 83.05
84.955 102.81 102.815 84.95 84.955
102.84 84.69
102.21 85.34
 104.89 86.19
105.03 86.16
102.21 84.40
98.56 80.97
96.17 79.71
97.25 80.56
99.22 82.30
102.24 85.07
103.14 84.72
86.658 105.48 105.478 86.66 86.658
105.49 86.39
104.84 87.04
107.59 87.91
107.73 87.88
104.83 86.07
101.08 82.58
98.62 81.29
99.72 82.15
101.74 83.93
104.83 86.75
105.75 86.39
88.362 108.14 108.142 88.36 88.362
108.15 88.08
107.48 88.75
110.29 89.63
110.43 89.59
107.45 87.75
103.60 84.18
101.08 82.87
102.20 83.75
104.26 85.56
107.42 88.43
108.36 88.06
90.066 110.80 110.805 90.07 90.066
110.81 89.78
110.12 90.46
112.99 91.35
113.12 91.31
110.07 89.43
106.12 85.79
103.53 84.45
104.68 85.34
106.78 87.18
110.02 90.10
110.97 89.72
91.769 113.47 113.468 91.77 91.769
113.47 91.47
112.75 92.16
115.69 93.07
115.82 93.02
 112.69 91.11
108.64 87.40
105.98 86.03
107.15 86.93
109.30 88.81
112.61 91.78
113.58 91.39
93.473 116.13 116.132 93.47 93.473
116.13 93.17
115.39 93.87
118.39 94.79
118.52 94.74
115.31 92.79
111.16 89.01
108.44 87.61
109.63 88.53
111.83 90.43
115.20 93.46
116.19 93.06
95.176 118.79 118.795 95.18 95.176
118.78 94.86
118.02 95.57
121.09 96.51
121.22 96.46
117.92 94.47
113.68 90.61
110.89 89.19
112.11 90.12
114.35 92.06
117.79 95.14
118.80 94.73
96.880 121.46 121.458 96.88 96.880
121.44 96.56
120.66 97.28
123.79 98.23
123.91 98.17
120.54 96.14
116.20 92.22
113.35 90.77
114.58 91.72
116.87 93.69
120.39 96.81
121.41 96.40
98.583 124.12 124.121 98.58 98.583
 Máxima Anual Máxima Anual
T-crecimiento % Holt Winters T-crecimiento % Lineal T-crecimiento %
21.43 21.43
4.1% 22.30 4.1% 22.30 4.1%
17.4% 26.18 17.4% 26.18 17.4%
7.7% 28.20 7.7% 28.20 7.7%
-3.8% 27.12 -3.8% 27.12 -3.8%
15.9% 31.44 15.9% 31.44 15.9%
12.2% 35.27 12.2% 35.27 12.2%
4.9% 36.99 4.9% 36.99 4.9%
6.9% 39.54 6.9% 39.54 6.9%
0.5% 39.73 0.5% 39.73 0.5%
4.9% 41.69 4.9% 41.69 4.9%
2.0% 42.51 2.0% 42.51 2.0%
8.1% 45.97 8.1% 45.97 8.1%
12.4% 51.67 12.4% 51.67 12.4%
4.5% 53.99 4.5% 53.99 4.5%
10.5% 59.67 10.5% 59.67 10.5%
9.2% 65.15 9.2% 65.15 9.2%
5.1% 68.48 5.1% 68.48 5.1%
7.1% 73.33 7.1% 73.33 7.1%
5.0% 77.03 5.0% 77.03 5.0%
7.5% 82.82 7.5% 82.82 7.5%
-19.2% 66.90 -19.2% 66.90 -19.2%
3.0% 67.92 1.5% 73.62 10.0%
3.6% 69.62 2.5% 77.82 5.7%
3.5% 71.33 2.4% 81.10 4.2%
3.4% 73.03 2.4% 84.01 3.6%
3.3% 74.73 2.3% 86.77 3.3%
3.2% 76.44 2.3% 89.47 3.1%
3.1% 78.14 2.2% 92.15 3.0%
3.0% 79.84 2.2% 94.82 2.9%
2.9% 81.55 2.1% 97.49 2.8%
2.8% 83.25 2.1% 100.15 2.7%
2.7% 84.95 2.0% 102.81 2.7%
2.7% 86.66 2.0% 105.48 2.6%
2.6% 88.36 2.0% 108.14 2.5%
2.5% 90.07 1.9% 110.80 2.5%
2.5% 91.77 1.9% 113.47 2.4%
2.4% 93.47 1.9% 116.13 2.3%
2.4% 95.18 1.8% 118.79 2.3%
2.3% 96.88 1.8% 121.46 2.2%
2.2% 98.58 1.8% 124.12 2.2%
COMBINACIÓN LINEAL DE PRONÓSTICOS
Año
Promedio Máximo 2007
66.66 67.80 2008
66.67 67.77 2009
68.07 69.98 2010
68.14 70.58 2011
67.06 69.10 2012
65.34 66.99 2013
64.46 65.71 2014
64.92 66.77 2015
66.26 68.43 2016
68.40 70.81 2017
68.49 71.72 2018
70.14 70.145 73.62 73.615 2019
70.04 73.88 2020
70.02 73.66 2021
71.42 75.82 2022
71.40 76.14 2023
70.19 74.29 2024
68.32 71.82 2025
67.34 70.24 2026
67.76 71.19
69.09 72.79
71.24 75.15
71.29 75.96
72.95 72.949 77.82 77.819
72.80 77.96
72.74 77.61
74.15 79.77
74.09 79.99
72.80 77.95
70.84 75.26
69.79 73.53
70.21 74.44
71.55 76.04
73.73 78.44
73.77 79.22
75.44 75.445 81.10 81.098
75.28 81.19
75.19 80.77
76.62 82.96
76.55 83.15
75.20 80.98
73.18 78.15
72.08 76.31
72.50 77.23
73.86 78.85
76.08 81.31
76.12 82.09
77.82 77.818 84.01 84.008
77.64 84.08
77.54 83.61
78.99 85.86
78.91 86.03
77.53 83.76
75.44 80.82
74.31 78.90
74.74 79.83
76.12 81.49
78.38 84.02
78.42 84.80
80.14 80.142 86.77 86.769
79.96 86.83
79.86 86.33
81.33 88.64
81.24 88.80
79.82 86.45
77.67 83.40
76.51 81.41
76.94 82.36
78.35 84.06
80.65 86.66
80.69 87.45
82.45 82.446 89.47 89.472
82.25 89.52
82.15 89.00
83.65 91.37
83.56 91.52
82.09 89.09
79.89 85.94
78.69 83.88
79.14 84.85
80.58 86.60
82.92 89.27
82.96 90.08
84.74 84.742 92.15 92.151
84.55 92.19
84.44 91.65
85.96 94.08
85.87 94.23
84.36 91.72
82.10 88.47
80.88 86.35
81.34 87.34
82.80 89.13
85.18 91.87
85.22 92.70
87.03 87.035 94.82 94.821
86.83 94.86
86.72 94.29
88.27 96.79
88.18 96.94
86.63 94.35
84.31 91.00
83.06 88.80
83.53 89.82
85.02 91.65
87.44 94.46
87.48 95.31
89.33 89.326 97.49 97.487
89.12 97.52
89.00 96.93
90.58 99.49
90.49 99.63
88.90 96.97
86.52 93.52
85.24 91.26
85.72 92.29
87.23 94.18
89.70 97.05
89.74 97.92
91.62 91.618 100.15 100.151
91.41 100.18
91.29 99.57
92.89 102.19
92.79 102.33
91.17 99.59
88.74 96.04
87.42 93.71
87.92 94.77
89.45 96.70
91.96 99.65
92.01 100.53
93.91 93.909 102.81 102.815
93.69 102.84
93.57 102.21
 95.20 104.89
95.10 105.03
93.44 102.21
90.95 98.56
89.60 96.17
90.11 97.25
91.67 99.22
94.22 102.24
94.27 103.14
96.20 96.199 105.48 105.478
95.98 105.49
95.85 104.84
97.50 107.59
97.41 107.73
95.71 104.83
93.16 101.08
91.78 98.62
92.30 99.72
93.89 101.74
96.47 104.83
96.53 105.75
98.49 98.490 108.14 108.142
98.27 108.15
98.13 107.48
99.81 110.29
99.71 110.43
97.97 107.45
95.37 103.60
93.96 101.08
94.49 102.20
96.10 104.26
98.73 107.42
98.79 108.36
100.78 100.781 110.80 110.805
100.55 110.81
100.42 110.12
102.12 112.99
102.02 113.12
100.24 110.07
97.58 106.12
96.14 103.53
96.68 104.68
98.32 106.78
100.99 110.02
101.05 110.97
103.07 103.072 113.47 113.468
102.84 113.47
102.70 112.75
104.43 115.69
104.33 115.82
102.51 112.69
99.79 108.64
98.32 105.98
98.88 107.15
100.54 109.30
103.25 112.61
103.31 113.58
105.36 105.363 116.13 116.132
105.13 116.13
104.98 115.39
106.74 118.39
106.63 118.52
104.78 115.31
102.00 111.16
100.50 108.44
101.07 109.63
102.76 111.83
105.51 115.20
105.57 116.19
107.65 107.654 118.79 118.795
107.41 118.78
107.26 118.02
109.05 121.09
108.94 121.22
107.05 117.92
104.21 113.68
102.68 110.89
103.26 112.11
104.98 114.35
107.77 117.79
107.83 118.80
109.94 109.945 121.46 121.458
109.70 121.44
109.55 120.66
111.36 123.79
111.25 123.91
109.31 120.54
106.43 116.20
104.86 113.35
105.45 114.58
107.19 116.87
110.03 120.39
110.10 121.41
112.24 112.236 124.12 124.121
Máxima Anual Diferencia Diferencia Diferencia
Portuguesa ARIMA Holt Winters anual Lineal

89.82 6.997 6.997 7.00

94.24 27.341 27.341 27.34
98.68 29.778 30.758 25.06
103.12 31.717 33.498 25.30
107.57 33.660 36.244 26.47
112.02 35.609 38.995 28.02
116.48 37.562 41.751 29.71
120.95 39.520 44.510 31.48
125.41 41.481 47.273 33.26
129.88 43.444 50.039 35.06

Promedio de diferencias
32.711 35.741 26.871
Dmáx %Crec. %Crec.
66.90
70.14 4.8% 4.8%
72.95 4.0% 4.0%
75.44 3.4% 3.4%
77.82 3.1% 3.1%
80.14 3.0% 3.0%
82.45 2.9% 2.9%
84.74 2.8% 2.8%
87.03 2.7% 2.7%
89.33 2.6% 2.6%
91.62 2.6% 2.6%
93.91 2.5% 2.5%
96.20 2.4% 2.4%
98.49 2.4% 2.4%
100.78 2.3% 2.3%
103.07 2.3% 2.3%
105.36 2.2% 2.2%
107.65 2.2% 2.2%
109.94 2.1% 2.1%
112.24 2.1% 2.1%
 140.00
Potencia (MW)

120.00 Guanare
Pronóstico ARIMA

100.00 Pronóstico HOLT WINTERS

Pronóstico LINEAL

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
6 9 2 5 8 1 04 07 10 3 6 9 2 5
n -8 n-
8
n -9 n -9 n -9 n -0 n- n- n- n -1 n -1 n -1 n -2 n -2
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja J a J a J a Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja
Tiempo (Años)
 6 9 2 5
n -1 n -1 n -2 n -2
Ja Ja Ja Ja
 Modelo Lineal
S/E TUREN Modelo ARIMA
(Linf)
Jan-86 10.730
Feb-86 11.020
Mar-86 11.930
Apr-86 12.370
May-86 11.110
Jun-86 10.800
Jul-86 11.240
Aug-86 10.860
Sep-86 10.650
Oct-86 8.620
Nov-86 9.600
Dec-86 8.520 12.370
Jan-87 9.980
Feb-87 9.670
Mar-87 10.770
Apr-87 10.340
May-87 10.900
Jun-87 11.300
Jul-87 10.800
Aug-87 11.250
Sep-87 12.400
Oct-87 12.150
Nov-87 12.400
Dec-87 11.800 12.400
Jan-88 12.150
Feb-88 13.200
Mar-88 13.010
Apr-88 14.300
May-88 14.100
Jun-88 13.500
Jul-88 12.100
Aug-88 11.700
Sep-88 13.100
Oct-88 12.600
Nov-88 12.700
Dec-88 11.700 14.300
Jan-89 12.590
Feb-89 13.050
Mar-89 13.380
Apr-89 13.720
May-89 14.720
Jun-89 12.600
Jul-89 12.150
Aug-89 13.190
Sep-89 12.550
Oct-89 11.670
Nov-89 12.750
Dec-89 11.990 14.720
Jan-90 12.800
Feb-90 12.300
Mar-90 14.200
Apr-90 14.380
May-90 13.230
Jun-90 13.080
Jul-90 12.480
Aug-90 12.900
Sep-90 14.600
Oct-90 15.090
Nov-90 13.620
Dec-90 14.990 15.090
Jan-91 13.900
Feb-91 14.820
Mar-91 15.520
Apr-91 16.380
May-91 16.710
Jun-91 15.640
Jul-91 14.070
Aug-91 17.820
Sep-91 15.450
Oct-91 17.910
Nov-91 14.590
Dec-91 17.870 17.910
Jan-92 16.450
Feb-92 16.760
Mar-92 17.230
Apr-92 16.390
May-92 17.280
Jun-92 16.110
Jul-92 18.500
Aug-92 16.010
Sep-92 16.170
Oct-92 17.230
Nov-92 17.230
Dec-92 17.800 18.500
Jan-93 17.570
Feb-93 17.410
Mar-93 18.640
Apr-93 20.370
May-93 18.000
Jun-93 17.720
Jul-93 18.180
Aug-93 17.510
Sep-93 18.300
Oct-93 20.720
Nov-93 17.620
Dec-93 20.050 20.720
Jan-94 19.580
Feb-94 20.100
Mar-94 21.870
Apr-94 23.920
May-94 22.290
Jun-94 17.480
Jul-94 17.350
Aug-94 16.740
Sep-94 17.980
Oct-94 18.960
Nov-94 20.590
Dec-94 21.320 23.920
Jan-95 20.960
Feb-95 22.320
Mar-95 23.760
Apr-95 23.190
May-95 22.860
Jun-95 19.610
Jul-95 19.790
Aug-95 22.270
Sep-95 22.400
Oct-95 22.550
Nov-95 23.090
Dec-95 22.460 23.760
Jan-96 23.720
Feb-96 24.610
Mar-96 26.010
Apr-96 24.200
May-96 23.330
Jun-96 22.070
Jul-96 21.430
Aug-96 22.570
Sep-96 23.240
Oct-96 23.160
Nov-96 24.740
Dec-96 25.140 26.010
Jan-97 27.760
Feb-97 27.440
Mar-97 28.870
Apr-97 28.620
May-97 28.320
Jun-97 25.380
Jul-97 24.670
Aug-97 23.950
Sep-97 27.880
Oct-97 29.050
Nov-97 27.290
Dec-97 26.540 29.050
Jan-98 28.490
Feb-98 31.200
Mar-98 31.300
Apr-98 28.740
May-98 27.050
Jun-98 25.940
Jul-98 26.490
Aug-98 25.950
Sep-98 26.170
Oct-98 26.300
Nov-98 28.890
Dec-98 29.900 31.300
Jan-99 31.390
Feb-99 30.790
Mar-99 30.790
Apr-99 28.380
May-99 30.880
Jun-99 27.470
Jul-99 27.480
Aug-99 23.810
Sep-99 27.050
Oct-99 26.160
Nov-99 26.610
Dec-99 27.740 31.390
Jan-00 29.640
Feb-00 29.640
Mar-00 33.470
Apr-00 34.110
May-00 34.290
Jun-00 30.040
Jul-00 29.660
Aug-00 29.330
Sep-00 26.840
Oct-00 28.620
Nov-00 31.610
Dec-00 31.910 34.290
Jan-01 31.850
Feb-01 33.540
Mar-01 35.890
Apr-01 34.260
May-01 31.640
Jun-01 28.580
Jul-01 29.320
Aug-01 28.120
Sep-01 30.560
Oct-01 30.840
Nov-01 31.400
Dec-01 31.410 35.890
Jan-02 32.820
Feb-02 35.340
Mar-02 34.710
Apr-02 34.580
May-02 32.760
Jun-02 26.150
Jul-02 29.810
Aug-02 27.410
Sep-02 30.810
Oct-02 30.990
Nov-02 31.550
Dec-02 32.360 35.340
Jan-03 33.560
Feb-03 32.660
Mar-03 33.580
Apr-03 33.480
May-03 33.390
Jun-03 27.710
Jul-03 29.000
Aug-03 30.410
Sep-03 30.440
Oct-03 30.220
Nov-03 30.170
Dec-03 31.480 33.580
Jan-04 32.250
Feb-04 34.890
Mar-04 35.290
Apr-04 34.400
May-04 28.400
Jun-04 27.270
Jul-04 27.680
Aug-04 26.220
Sep-04 29.000
Oct-04 30.610
Nov-04 31.250
Dec-04 33.130 35.290
Jan-05 30.990
Feb-05 34.910
Mar-05 34.910
Apr-05 31.440
May-05 36.060
Jun-05 34.200
Jul-05 33.570
Aug-05 31.050
Sep-05 35.250
Oct-05 35.39
Nov-05 33.72
Dec-05 35.77 36.060
Jan-06 36.84
Feb-06 37.72
Mar-06 38.12
Apr-06 37.59
May-06 35.13
Jun-06 31.72
Jul-06 31.77
Aug-06 33.07
Sep-06 34.94
Oct-06 34.61
Nov-06 34.94
Dec-06 36.67 38.120
Jan-07 38.61
Feb-07 39.05
Mar-07 37.91
Apr-07 34.11
May-07 33.71
Jun-07 32.10
Jul-07 34.82
Aug-07 32.93
Sep-07 34.56
Oct-07 35.98
Nov-07 33.21
Dec-07 36.39 36.390
Jan-08 36.60 35.27
Feb-08 38.18 36.96
Mar-08 38.55 38.24
Apr-08 37.93 38.34
May-08 37.21 37.12
Jun-08 33.56 33.92
Jul-08 34.15 33.58
Aug-08 33.58 33.46
Sep-08 35.13 35.46
Oct-08 35.66 35.77
Nov-08 35.58 35.97
Dec-08 36.77 38.551 36.82
Jan-09 37.50 37.67
Feb-09 38.62 38.68
Mar-09 39.28 40.50
Apr-09 38.67 40.40
May-09 37.95 39.08
Jun-09 34.30 35.64
Jul-09 34.90 35.23
Aug-09 34.34 35.06
Sep-09 35.89 37.10
Oct-09 36.42 37.37
Nov-09 36.35 37.54
Dec-09 37.54 39.283 38.38
Jan-10 38.27 39.23
Feb-10 39.40 40.25
Mar-10 40.07 42.11
Apr-10 39.46 41.97
May-10 38.75 40.57
Jun-10 35.10 36.99
Jul-10 35.71 36.55
Aug-10 35.15 36.35
Sep-10 36.70 38.44
Oct-10 37.24 38.71
Nov-10 37.17 38.87
Dec-10 38.37 40.069 39.73
Jan-11 39.11 40.59
Feb-11 40.23 41.64
Mar-11 40.91 43.55
Apr-11 40.30 43.40
May-11 39.60 41.95
Jun-11 35.96 38.24
Jul-11 36.57 37.78
Aug-11 36.01 37.57
Sep-11 37.57 39.72
Oct-11 38.11 39.99
Nov-11 38.05 40.15
Dec-11 39.25 40.909 41.04
Jan-12 39.99 41.92
Feb-12 41.12 42.99
Mar-12 41.80 44.96
Apr-12 41.20 44.79
May-12 40.50 43.29
Jun-12 36.86 39.47
Jul-12 37.48 38.99
Aug-12 36.93 38.77
Sep-12 38.49 40.99
Oct-12 39.04 41.26
Nov-12 38.98 41.42
Dec-12 40.19 41.804 42.33
Jan-13 40.93 43.23
Feb-13 42.07 44.33
Mar-13 42.75 46.35
Apr-13 42.16 46.18
May-13 41.46 44.63
Jun-13 37.83 40.69
Jul-13 38.45 40.20
Aug-13 37.90 39.96
Sep-13 39.47 42.25
Oct-13 40.02 42.52
Nov-13 39.97 42.69
Dec-13 41.18 42.754 43.62
Jan-14 41.93 44.54
Feb-14 43.07 45.67
Mar-14 43.76 47.75
Apr-14 43.16 47.57
May-14 42.47 45.98
Jun-14 38.85 41.92
Jul-14 39.47 41.40
Aug-14 38.93 41.16
Sep-14 40.50 43.50
Oct-14 41.05 43.79
Nov-14 41.01 43.95
Dec-14 42.22 43.757 44.91
Jan-15 42.98 45.86
Feb-15 44.12 47.01
Mar-15 44.82 49.15
Apr-15 44.23 48.96
May-15 43.54 47.31
Jun-15 39.92 43.14
Jul-15 40.55 42.61
Aug-15 40.01 42.36
Sep-15 41.59 44.76
Oct-15 42.14 45.05
Nov-15 42.10 45.22
Dec-15 43.32 44.816 46.20
Jan-16 44.08 47.17
Feb-16 45.23 48.35
Mar-16 45.93 50.54
Apr-16 45.34 50.35
May-16 44.66 48.65
Jun-16 41.04 44.36
Jul-16 41.68 43.82
Aug-16 41.14 43.55
Sep-16 42.73 46.02
Oct-16 43.29 46.31
Nov-16 43.25 46.48
Dec-16 44.48 45.928 47.48
Jan-17 45.24 48.48
Feb-17 46.39 49.69
Mar-17 47.10 51.94
Apr-17 46.52 51.73
May-17 45.84 49.99
Jun-17 42.22 45.59
Jul-17 42.86 45.02
Aug-17 42.33 44.75
Sep-17 43.92 47.28
Oct-17 44.49 47.58
Nov-17 44.45 47.75
Dec-17 45.68 47.095 48.77
Jan-18 46.45 49.79
Feb-18 47.61 51.03
Mar-18 48.32 53.33
Apr-18 47.74 53.12
May-18 47.07 51.33
Jun-18 43.46 46.81
Jul-18 44.10 46.23
Aug-18 43.58 45.95
Sep-18 45.17 48.54
Oct-18 45.74 48.84
Nov-18 45.71 49.01
Dec-18 46.95 48.317 50.06
Jan-19 47.72 51.10
Feb-19 48.88 52.37
Mar-19 49.59 54.73
Apr-19 49.02 54.51
May-19 48.35 52.67
Jun-19 44.75 48.03
Jul-19 45.39 47.43
Aug-19 44.88 47.14
Sep-19 46.47 49.80
Oct-19 47.05 50.10
Nov-19 47.02 50.28
Dec-19 48.26 49.593 51.35
Jan-20 49.04 52.41
Feb-20 50.21 53.71
Mar-20 50.92 56.12
Apr-20 50.36 55.89
May-20 49.69 54.01
Jun-20 46.09 49.25
Jul-20 46.74 48.64
Aug-20 46.23 48.34
Sep-20 47.83 51.05
Oct-20 48.41 51.36
Nov-20 48.39 51.54
Dec-20 49.63 50.923 52.64
Jan-21 50.41 53.72
Feb-21 51.59 55.05
Mar-21 52.31 57.52
Apr-21 51.75 57.28
May-21 51.09 55.35
Jun-21 47.49 50.48
Jul-21 48.15 49.84
Aug-21 47.64 49.53
Sep-21 49.24 52.31
Oct-21 49.83 52.63
Nov-21 49.81 52.80
Dec-21 51.06 52.308 53.92
Jan-22 51.84 55.04
Feb-22 53.02 56.39
Mar-22 53.75 58.91
Apr-22 53.19 58.67
May-22 52.54 56.69
Jun-22 48.94 51.70
Jul-22 49.60 51.05
Aug-22 49.10 50.73
Sep-22 50.71 53.57
Oct-22 51.30 53.89
Nov-22 51.29 54.07
Dec-22 52.54 53.747 55.21
Jan-23 53.33 56.35
Feb-23 54.51 57.73
Mar-23 55.24 60.31
Apr-23 54.69 60.05
May-23 54.04 58.03
Jun-23 50.45 52.92
Jul-23 51.12 52.25
Aug-23 50.61 51.92
Sep-23 52.23 54.83
Oct-23 52.82 55.15
Nov-23 52.82 55.33
Dec-23 54.07 55.240 56.50
Jan-24 54.87 57.66
Feb-24 56.05 59.07
Mar-24 56.79 61.70
Apr-24 56.24 61.44
May-24 55.60 59.36
Jun-24 52.01 54.14
Jul-24 52.68 53.46
Aug-24 52.18 53.12
Sep-24 53.80 56.08
Oct-24 54.40 56.41
Nov-24 54.40 56.60
Dec-24 55.66 56.788 57.79
Jan-25 56.46 58.97
Feb-25 57.65 60.41
Mar-25 58.39 63.10
Apr-25 57.85 62.82
May-25 57.21 60.70
Jun-25 53.63 55.36
Jul-25 54.30 54.66
Aug-25 53.81 54.31
Sep-25 55.43 57.34
Oct-25 56.04 57.68
Nov-25 56.04 57.86
Dec-25 57.30 58.391 59.07
Jan-26 58.11 60.28
Feb-26 59.30 61.75
Mar-26 60.05 64.49
Apr-26 59.51 64.21
May-26 58.87 62.04
Jun-26 55.30 56.59
Jul-26 55.98 55.87
Aug-26 55.49 55.51
Sep-26 57.12 58.60
Oct-26 57.72 58.94
Nov-26 57.73 59.12
Dec-26 59.00 60.047 60.36
odelo Lineal
Modelo Holt Winters A Máxima Anual
(Linf) AÑO ARIMA
1986 12.37
1987 12.40
1988 14.30
1989 14.72
1990 15.09
1991 17.91
1992 18.50
1993 20.72
1994 23.92
1995 23.76
1996 26.01
12.370 12.370 1997 29.05
1998 31.30
1999 31.39
2000 34.29
2001 35.89
2002 35.34
2003 33.58
2004 35.29
2005 36.06
2006 38.12
2007 36.39
2008 38.55
12.400 12.400 2009 39.28
2010 40.07
2011 40.91
2012 41.80
2013 42.75
2014 43.76
2015 44.82
2016 45.93
2017 47.10
2018 48.32
2019 49.59
2020 50.92
14.300 14.300 2021 52.31
2022 53.75
2023 55.24
2024 56.79
2025 58.39
2026 60.05
14.720 14.720

15.090 15.090

17.910 17.910

18.500 18.500

20.720 20.720
23.920 23.920

23.760 23.760

26.010 26.010

29.050 29.050
31.300 31.300

31.390 31.390

34.290 34.290

35.890 35.890
35.340 35.340

33.580 33.580

35.290 35.290

36.060 36.060
38.120 38.120

COMBINACIÓN LIN

36.390 36.390 Mínimo

36.43 35.27
37.24 36.96
38.09 38.09
37.55 37.55
36.95 36.95
34.69 33.56
34.96 33.58
34.63 33.46
35.78 35.13
36.19 35.66
36.20 35.58
38.342 36.99 38.090 36.77 38.090
37.60 37.50
38.41 38.41
39.26 39.26
38.72 38.67
38.13 37.95
35.87 34.30
36.14 34.90
35.81 34.34
36.95 35.89
37.37 36.42
37.37 36.35
40.503 38.16 39.264 37.54 39.264
38.78 38.27
39.59 39.40
40.44 40.07
39.90 39.46
39.30 38.75
37.04 35.10
37.31 35.71
36.98 35.15
38.13 36.70
 38.54 37.24
38.55 37.17
42.107 39.34 40.438 38.37 40.069
39.95 39.11
40.76 40.23
41.61 40.91
41.07 40.30
40.48 39.60
38.22 35.96
38.49 36.57
38.15 36.01
39.30 37.57
39.72 38.11
39.72 38.05
43.549 40.51 41.613 39.25 40.909
41.13 39.99
41.94 41.12
42.79 41.80
42.25 41.20
41.65 40.50
39.39 36.86
39.66 37.48
39.33 36.93
40.48 38.49
40.89 39.04
40.90 38.98
44.955 41.69 42.787 40.19 41.804
42.30 40.93
43.11 42.07
43.96 42.75
43.42 42.16
42.82 41.46
40.57 37.83
40.83 38.45
40.50 37.90
41.65 39.47
42.06 40.02
42.07 39.97
46.353 42.86 43.961 41.18 42.754
43.48 41.93
44.28 43.07
45.14 43.76
44.60 43.16
44.00 42.47
41.74 38.85
42.01 39.47
41.68 38.93
42.83 40.50
43.24 41.05
43.25 41.01
47.750 44.03 45.136 42.22 43.757
44.65 42.98
45.46 44.12
46.31 44.82
45.77 44.23
45.17 43.54
42.91 39.92
43.18 40.55
42.85 40.01
44.00 41.59
44.41 42.14
44.42 42.10
49.146 45.21 46.310 43.32 44.816
45.82 44.08
46.63 45.23
47.48 45.93
46.94 45.34
46.35 44.66
44.09 41.04
44.36 41.68
44.03 41.14
45.17 42.73
45.59 43.29
45.59 43.25
50.541 46.38 47.484 44.48 45.928
47.00 45.24
47.81 46.39
48.66 47.10
48.12 46.52
47.52 45.84
45.26 42.22
45.53 42.86
45.20 42.33
46.35 43.92
46.76 44.49
46.77 44.45
51.937 47.56 48.659 45.68 47.095
48.17 46.45
48.98 47.61
49.83 48.32
49.29 47.74
48.70 47.07
46.44 43.46
46.71 44.10
46.37 43.58
47.52 45.17
47.94 45.74
47.94 45.71
53.332 48.73 49.833 46.95 48.317
49.35 47.72
 50.16 48.88
51.01 49.59
50.47 49.02
49.87 48.35
47.61 44.75
47.88 45.39
47.55 44.88
48.70 46.47
49.11 47.05
49.12 47.02
54.727 49.91 51.007 48.26 49.593
50.52 49.04
51.33 50.21
52.18 50.92
51.64 50.36
51.05 49.69
48.79 46.09
49.05 46.74
48.72 46.23
49.87 47.83
50.28 48.41
50.29 48.39
56.122 51.08 52.182 49.63 50.923
51.70 50.41
52.50 51.59
53.36 52.31
52.82 51.75
52.22 51.09
49.96 47.49
50.23 48.15
49.90 47.64
51.05 49.24
51.46 49.83
51.47 49.81
57.517 52.25 53.356 51.06 52.308
52.87 51.84
53.68 53.02
54.53 53.75
53.99 53.19
53.39 52.54
51.14 48.94
51.40 49.60
51.07 49.10
52.22 50.71
52.63 51.30
52.64 51.29
58.912 53.43 54.530 52.54 53.747
54.04 53.33
54.85 54.51
55.70 55.24
 55.16 54.69
54.57 54.04
52.31 50.45
52.58 51.12
52.25 50.61
53.39 52.23
53.81 52.82
53.81 52.82
60.307 54.60 55.705 54.07 55.240
55.22 54.87
56.03 56.03
56.88 56.79
56.34 56.24
55.74 55.60
53.48 52.01
53.75 52.68
53.42 52.18
54.57 53.80
54.98 54.40
54.99 54.40
61.701 55.78 56.879 55.66 56.788
56.39 56.39
57.20 57.20
58.05 58.05
57.51 57.51
56.92 56.92
54.66 53.63
54.93 54.30
54.59 53.81
55.74 55.43
56.16 56.04
56.16 56.04
63.095 56.95 58.053 56.95 58.053
57.57 57.57
58.38 58.38
59.23 59.23
58.69 58.69
58.09 58.09
55.83 55.30
56.10 55.87
55.77 55.49
56.92 56.92
57.33 57.33
57.34 57.34
64.490 58.13 59.227 58.13 59.227
 Máxima Anual Máxima Anual
T-crecimiento % Lineal T-crecimiento % Holt Winters T-crecimiento %
12.37 12.37
0.2% 12.40 0.2% 12.40 0.2%
15.3% 14.30 15.3% 14.30 15.3%
2.9% 14.72 2.9% 14.72 2.9%
2.5% 15.09 2.5% 15.09 2.5%
18.7% 17.91 18.7% 17.91 18.7%
3.3% 18.50 3.3% 18.50 3.3%
12.0% 20.72 12.0% 20.72 12.0%
15.4% 23.92 15.4% 23.92 15.4%
-0.7% 23.76 -0.7% 23.76 -0.7%
9.5% 26.01 9.5% 26.01 9.5%
11.7% 29.05 11.7% 29.05 11.7%
7.7% 31.30 7.7% 31.30 7.7%
0.3% 31.39 0.3% 31.39 0.3%
9.2% 34.29 9.2% 34.29 9.2%
4.7% 35.89 4.7% 35.89 4.7%
-1.5% 35.34 -1.5% 35.34 -1.5%
-5.0% 33.58 -5.0% 33.58 -5.0%
5.1% 35.29 5.1% 35.29 5.1%
2.2% 36.06 2.2% 36.06 2.2%
5.7% 38.12 5.7% 38.12 5.7%
-4.5% 36.39 -4.5% 36.39 -4.5%
5.9% 38.34 5.4% 38.09 4.7%
1.9% 40.50 5.6% 39.26 3.1%
2.0% 42.11 4.0% 40.44 3.0%
2.1% 43.55 3.4% 41.61 2.9%
2.2% 44.96 3.2% 42.79 2.8%
2.3% 46.35 3.1% 43.96 2.7%
2.3% 47.75 3.0% 45.14 2.7%
2.4% 49.15 2.9% 46.31 2.6%
2.5% 50.54 2.8% 47.48 2.5%
2.5% 51.94 2.8% 48.66 2.5%
2.6% 53.33 2.7% 49.83 2.4%
2.6% 54.73 2.6% 51.01 2.4%
2.7% 56.12 2.5% 52.18 2.3%
2.7% 57.52 2.5% 53.36 2.3%
2.8% 58.91 2.4% 54.53 2.2%
2.8% 60.31 2.4% 55.70 2.2%
2.8% 61.70 2.3% 56.88 2.1%
2.8% 63.10 2.3% 58.05 2.1%
2.8% 64.49 2.2% 59.23 2.0%
COMBINACIÓN LINEAL DE PRONÓSTICOS
Año
Promedio Máximo 2007
36.10 36.60 2008
37.46 38.18 2009
38.29 38.55 2010
37.94 38.34 2011
37.09 37.21 2012
34.06 34.69 2013
34.23 34.96 2014
33.89 34.63 2015
35.46 35.78 2016
35.87 36.19 2017
35.92 36.20 2018
36.86 38.293 36.99 38.551 2019
37.59 37.67 2020
38.57 38.68 2021
39.68 40.50 2022
39.26 40.40 2023
38.39 39.08 2024
35.27 35.87 2025
35.42 36.14 2026
35.07 35.81
36.65 37.10
37.05 37.37
37.09 37.54
38.03 39.683 38.38 40.503
38.76 39.23
39.74 40.25
40.87 42.11
40.44 41.97
39.54 40.57
36.38 37.04
36.52 37.31
36.16 36.98
37.76 38.44
38.16 38.71
38.20 38.87
39.15 40.871 39.73 42.107
39.88 40.59
40.88 41.64
42.02 43.55
41.59 43.40
40.67 41.95
37.47 38.24
37.61 38.49
37.24 38.15
38.87 39.72
39.27 39.99
39.31 40.15
40.27 42.024 41.04 43.549
41.01 41.92
42.02 42.99
43.18 44.96
42.75 44.79
41.82 43.29
38.58 39.47
38.71 39.66
38.34 39.33
39.99 40.99
40.39 41.26
40.43 41.42
41.40 43.182 42.33 44.955
42.16 43.23
43.17 44.33
44.36 46.35
43.92 46.18
42.97 44.63
39.70 40.69
39.83 40.83
39.46 40.50
41.12 42.25
41.53 42.52
41.57 42.69
42.55 44.356 43.62 46.353
43.32 44.54
44.34 45.67
45.55 47.75
45.11 47.57
44.15 45.98
40.83 41.92
40.96 42.01
40.59 41.68
42.28 43.50
42.69 43.79
42.73 43.95
43.72 45.548 44.91 47.750
44.49 45.86
45.53 47.01
46.76 49.15
46.32 48.96
45.34 47.31
41.99 43.14
42.11 43.18
41.74 42.85
43.45 44.76
43.87 45.05
43.91 45.22
44.91 46.757 46.20 49.146
45.69 47.17
46.74 48.35
47.98 50.54
47.54 50.35
46.55 48.65
43.17 44.36
43.28 44.36
42.91 44.03
44.64 46.02
45.06 46.31
45.11 46.48
46.11 47.985 47.48 50.541
46.91 48.48
47.97 49.69
49.23 51.94
48.79 51.73
47.78 49.99
44.36 45.59
44.47 45.53
44.09 45.20
45.85 47.28
46.27 47.58
46.32 47.75
47.34 49.230 48.77 51.937
48.14 49.79
49.21 51.03
50.49 53.33
50.05 53.12
49.03 51.33
45.57 46.81
45.68 46.71
45.30 46.37
47.08 48.54
47.50 48.84
47.56 49.01
48.58 50.494 50.06 53.332
49.39 51.10
50.47 52.37
51.78 54.73
51.33 54.51
50.30 52.67
46.80 48.03
46.90 47.88
46.52 47.55
48.32 49.80
48.75 50.10
48.81 50.28
49.84 51.776 51.35 54.727
50.66 52.41
51.75 53.71
53.08 56.12
52.63 55.89
51.58 54.01
48.04 49.25
48.15 49.05
47.76 48.72
49.59 51.05
50.02 51.36
50.07 51.54
51.12 53.076 52.64 56.122
51.94 53.72
53.05 55.05
54.39 57.52
53.95 57.28
52.89 55.35
49.31 50.48
49.41 50.23
49.02 49.90
50.87 52.31
51.30 52.63
51.36 52.80
52.41 54.394 53.92 57.517
53.25 55.04
54.36 56.39
55.73 58.91
55.28 58.67
54.21 56.69
50.59 51.70
50.68 51.40
50.30 51.07
52.17 53.57
52.61 53.89
52.67 54.07
53.73 55.730 55.21 58.912
54.57 56.35
55.70 57.73
57.08 60.31
56.63 60.05
55.54 58.03
51.89 52.92
51.98 52.58
51.59 52.25
53.48 54.83
53.93 55.15
53.99 55.33
55.06 57.084 56.50 60.307
55.91 57.66
57.05 59.07
58.46 61.70
58.01 61.44
56.90 59.36
53.21 54.14
53.30 53.75
52.91 53.42
54.82 56.08
55.27 56.41
55.33 56.60
56.41 58.456 57.79 61.701
57.27 58.97
58.42 60.41
59.85 63.10
59.39 62.82
58.28 60.70
54.55 55.36
54.63 54.93
54.24 54.59
56.17 57.34
56.62 57.68
56.69 57.86
57.78 59.846 59.07 63.095
58.65 60.28
59.81 61.75
61.25 64.49
60.80 64.21
59.67 62.04
55.91 56.59
55.98 56.10
55.59 55.77
57.54 58.60
58.00 58.94
58.06 59.12
59.16 61.255 60.36 64.490
Máxima Anual Diferencia Diferencia Diferencia Holt
Portuguesa ARIMA Lineal Winters

38.77 0.646 0.646 0.65

41.47 5.084 5.084 5.08
43.08 4.531 4.740 4.99
44.17 4.884 3.664 4.90
45.25 5.182 3.144 4.81
46.34 5.426 2.786 4.72
47.42 5.616 2.465 4.63
48.50 5.751 2.151 4.54
49.59 5.832 1.839 4.45
50.67 5.858 1.528 4.36

Promedio de diferencias
4.881 2.805 4.315
Dmáx %Crec. Dmáx %Crec.
36.39 36.39
38.29 5.2% 38.29 5.2%
39.68 3.6% 39.68 3.6%
40.87 3.0% 40.87 3.0%
42.02 2.8% 42.02 2.8%
43.18 2.8% 43.18 2.8%
44.36 2.7% 44.36 2.7%
45.55 2.7% 45.55 2.7%
46.76 2.7% 46.76 2.7%
47.98 2.6% 47.98 2.6%
49.23 2.6% 49.23 2.6%
50.49 2.6% 50.49 2.6%
51.78 2.5% 51.78 2.5%
53.08 2.5% 53.08 2.5%
54.39 2.5% 54.39 2.5%
55.73 2.5% 55.73 2.5%
57.08 2.4% 57.08 2.4%
58.46 2.4% 58.46 2.4%
59.85 2.4% 59.85 2.4%
61.25 2.4% 61.25 2.4%
 Potencia (MW)

10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00

0.00
Jan-86
Nov-86
Sep-87
Jul-88
May-89
Mar-90
Jan-91
Nov-91
Turen

Sep-92
Jul-93
May-94
Mar-95
Jan-96
Pronóstico ARIMA
Pronóstico LINEAL

Nov-96
Sep-97
Jul-98
Pronóstico HOLT WINTERS

May-99
Mar-00
Jan-01
Nov-01
Sep-02
Jul-03
May-04
Mar-05
Jan-06
Nov-06
Sep-07
Tiempo (Años)

Jul-08
May-09
Mar-10
Jan-11
Nov-11
Sep-12
Jul-13
 May-04
Mar-05
Jan-06
Nov-06
Sep-07

empo (Años)
Jul-08
May-09
Mar-10
Jan-11
Nov-11
Sep-12
Jul-13
May-14
Mar-15
Jan-16
Nov-16
Sep-17
Jul-18
May-19
Mar-20
Jan-21
Nov-21
Sep-22
Jul-23
May-24
Mar-25
Jan-26
Nov-26