You can also calculate the probabilities of errors from a two-tailed hypothesis test. Example A coin is spun 20 times and a head is obtained on 7 occasions. a Test to see whether or not the coin is biased. b Calculate the probability of a Type I error for this test. ¢ Given that the coin is biased and that this bias causes the tail to appear 3 times for each head that appears, calculate the probability of a Type II error for the test.1 The hypotheses are Hoip=O5 — Hipx05 ——— Let I’ the number of heads in 20 spins oF the coin Assuming Hs tre then ¥~ B(20, 05) For 4 two-taled test, a the 5% signficance level. you cequre valics cand ep 20 that + PLY & ) © 0.025 and PUY 3) =< 0025 er PO sie= DETR rom tables: FIX 6) = 00577 and Pu < 5) = 00207 so the vale of = 5 Aso: PUY® 14) =1 = FU 13) 1 -09423 00877 tars 14) 109798 = 00207 so the valve of ee = 15 Thus the entical regan for Y'is = 5 or ves, As 7 fas between S ana 15 there is Ineufficient evidence to reject Ho. The coin is not biased. rus 15) b AType enor occurs when you ree Mo but His true, and this ecevrs when X25 oN P15, Potype | error) = PLY 5|p =05) + PLY > 15|p=05) = 00207 + 00207 =0044 A Typell ewer oceurs when you de net have sufficient evidence to reject Ma when is true. You da not have evidence ta reject Ho #¥> 6 and Xe 14 weGsveu Pope Weer) = FIG = = 14lp=0.25) =P < t4|p =0.25) = Pus 5|p= 025) =1000- 06172 038251 The random variable Y is binomially distributed. A sample of 10 is taken, and it is desired to test Hy: p = 0.25 against H): p > 0.25, using a 5% level of significance. a Calculate the critical region for this test. b State the probability of a Type I error for this test and, given that the true value of p was later found to be 0.30, calculate the probability of a Type II error.La Hy:p=025 H,:p>025 Assume H,, so that X ~ B(10,0.25) Significance level 5%6, so require c such that P('>c) < 0.05 From the binomial cumulative distribution tables P(X 25) =1- PLY <4) =1-0.9219 = 0.0781 P(X. 26)=1-PCV<5) =1-0.9803 = 0.0197 PX > 5) > 0.05 and P(X >6)<0.05 so the critical value is 6 Hence the critical region is > 6 b_PCType Lenor) = P(X6| p=0.25)= 0.0197 P(Type Ml error) = P(X <5 p= 0.30) = 0.95272. The random variable Y is binomially distributed. A sample of 20 is taken, and it is desired to test Ho: p = 0.30 against Hj: p < 0.30, using a 1% level of significance. a Calculate the critical region for this test. b State the probability of a Type I error for this test and, given that the true probability was later found to be 0.25, calculate the probability of a Type II error.2a Hy:p=030 H,:p<030 Assume H, . $0 that." ~ B(20,0.30) Significance level 1%, so require ¢ such that PY 0.01 and PLY <1) <0.01 so the critical value is 1 ‘Hence the critical region is "<1 D_ P¢Type Terror) = PLY <1) p (Type Il error) = P(X >2| p 0076 1-P(X<1|p3 The random variable XY is binomially distributed. A sample of 10 is taken, and it is desired to test Hy: p = 0.45 against H,: p # 0.45, using a 5% level of significance. a Calculate the critical region for this test. b State the probability of a Type I error for this test and, given that the true probability was later found to be 0.40, calculate the probability of a Type II error.3a Hyp=04S Hype045 Assume H,, so that X°~ B(10.0.45) Significance level 5 If X'=¢, is the upper boundary of he lower critical region, require P(V'<«,) < 0.025, From the tables P(A <1)= 0.0233 and PLY <2) = 0.0996 So ¢, =1 and the lower critical region is ¥'<1 ra ¢; isthe lower boundary of the upper critical region, require P(X >¢,) < 0.025 From the tables 0.9726 = 0.0274 0.9955 =0.0045 So the critical region is <1 or X>9 ‘@Pearson Education Ls 2018. Copying pemites fr purchasing ison oy. Ths mateal isnot eprint ee (X <1] p=0.45)+P(X>1) p=0.45) = 0.0233 +0,0045 = 0.0278 (2<.X<8| p= 0.40) =P(X<8| p=0.40)-P(X<1| p= 0.40) =0.9983- 0.0164 =095192. (a) Define (i) a Type [ error, (ii) a Type II error. @2(a)(i) (il) Type I- H, rejected when itis true Type Il H, is accepted when itis falseDewi, a candidate in an election, believes that 45% of the electorate intend to vote for him. His agent, however, believes that the support for him is less than this. Given that p denotes the proportion of the electorate intending to vote for Dewi, (a) state hypotheses to be used to resolve this difference of opinion. [1] They decide to question a random sample of 60 electors. They define the critical region to be X < 20, where X denotes the number in the sample intending to vote for Dewi. (b) (i) Determine the significance level of this critical region. (ii) If in fact p is actually 0.35, calculate the probability of a Type II error. (iii) Explain in context the meaning of a Type II error. (iv) Explain briefly why this test is unsatisfactory. How could it be improved while keeping approximately the same significance level? [8]2a) (pyti) qi) (ii) (iy) Hp: p = 0.45: H;:p<0.45 Under Ho, X is B(60,0.45). Sig level = P(X < 20) 0446 Type Il error prob = P(X2 21|X is B(60,0.35)) = 0.548 A Type Il error here is accepting that ‘support for Dewi is 45% when it is actually 35%. Itis a large value for an error probability. It could be reduced by taking a larger sample. BT B1 M1 Al M1 Al —1 a1 at [9] ‘AOS AQ3 AQ2 AO1 AQ2 AO1 AO3 AO3 AO3Edward can correctly identify 20% of types of wild flower. He studies some books to see if he can improve how often he can correctly identify types of wild flower. He collects a random sample of 10 types of wild flower in order to test whether or not he has improved. a) i) Write suitable hypotheses for this test. ii) State a suitable test statistic that he could use. [2] b) Using a 5% level of significance, find the critical region for this test. [3] c) State the probability of a Type | error for this test and explain what it means in this context. [2] d) Edward correctly identifies 4 of the 10 types of wild flower he collected. What conclusion should Edward reach? [2]4(ay(i) (ii) (b) (c) (a) (p (or @) denotes the probability of Edward correctly identifying types of wild flower.) 02° Hp > 02 2 Hy > 0.2 The number/amount of times he correctly identifies a type of wild flower from the 10 types of wild flower. Under Hy, X ~ B(10,0.2) si P(X 2 4) = 0.1209 P(X 2 5) = 0.0328 CR:X25 0.0328 itis the probability of concluding that Edward has improved his ability to correctly identify wild flowers when in fact he has not. 4is not in the CR, therefore do not reject Hy OR P(X = 4) = 0.1209 > 0.05, do not reject Ho. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that Edward has improved his ability to correctly identify wild flowers. B1 B1 BI M1 AL B1 E1 BI —1 [9] Accept ‘proportion’. M1 for either PLE, or P(X > 5) or P(X < 4) = 0.9672 AO for P(¥ = 5) MO for evaluating P(X = 5) or P(X =4) FT their CR provided M1 awarded in (b) Or equivalent explanation FT their CR provided M1 awarded in (b). Do not allow ‘accept Ho’. Do not allow an explanation suggesting the proportion is 0.23. A jar contains a large number of sweets which have either soft centres or hard centres. The jar is thought to contain equal proportions of sweets with soft centres and sweets with hard centres. A random sample of 20 sweets is taken from the jar and the number of sweets with hard centres is recorded. (a) Using a 5% level of significance, find the critical region for a two-tailed test of the hypothesis that there are equal proportions of sweets with soft centres and sweets with hard centres in the jar. Q) (b) Calculate the probability of a Type I error for this test. Q) Given that there are 3 times as many sweets with soft centres as there are sweets with hard centres, (c) calculate the probability of a Type II error for this test. Q)3.(a) A —No of soit centres. X~ B(20, 0.5) Critical region X < 5 or X> BIBL 15 Q) (b) | P(Type Terror) = P(X <5 |p = 0.5) + P(X> 15 |p=0.5) = 0.0207 + 0.0207 = 0.0414 MI Al (2) (c) | P(Type II error) = P(Y < 15 | p = 0.25) — P(X < 6| p = 0.25) MI =1-0.6172 = 0.3828 Al 2) Notes Total 6 (a) BLY<5 BLX2 15 (b) MI Adding their two CR together or a correct answer Al awrt 0.0414 (c) MI FT their CR Al awrt 0.383