Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Privatization of Assets in Eastern Europe
Privatization of Assets in Eastern Europe
on the SEE Power Sector
Renewable Energy Opportunities
Privatisations & M&A Processes
European Renewable Energy Conference; 2 April 2009, Berlin
Table of contents
I. Recent developments
Credit tightening and impact on M&A activity
SEE long‐term power demand growth
II. Current opportunities in SEE renewables
On‐going greenfield projects’ dynamics
Selected privatisation primers and associated opportunities
Envisaged medium‐term trends in SEE renewables
SEE power sector competitive landscape
III. Emphasis on prudent M&A principles
Appendix:
Case study on SEE support mechanisms & incentives
Comparative analysis of selected regional stimuli packages
2 April 2009, Berlin
Credit tightening and impact on M&A activity (1/2)
2 April 2009, Berlin 1
Credit tightening and impact on M&A activity (2/2)
2009‐10, however, Tighter financing terms 2008‐09 perceived to have put pressure:
opportune for well‐ ‐ the most active acquirers of 2007‐08 trading at 60‐70% of fair valuations,
capitalised majors which lowers their margins and hinders capex
to, in the midst of ‐ debt terms, rates and equity %, exacerbated by banks’ balance sheets weakness
financial tightening,
acquire projects However, potential consolidators amongst strategics less affected by
financial tightening:
facing financing
‐ excluding the most leveraged acquirers, large utilities and energy players
difficulties at
entered the “financial crunch” with healthy balance sheet
advanced stages of
‐ some may even benefit from refinancing at lower variable rates in ’09
development
On the sell‐side, both, smaller developers, and some CEE / SEE
Hence, M&A governments, struggle to raise financings:
catalyst – footprint, ‐ credit crisis to accelerated consolidation by cash‐rich companies having closed
margins, and doors to debt‐financed growth‐oriented players
financially more ‐ state privatisations motivated by overdue investment in old plants in the
opportune down‐ CEE/SEE; and needs elsewhere in the budgets.
cylce dynamics
Trend to be accelerated by delayed knock‐on effects of financial tightening
increasingly more felt in the SEE region with its fragile financial institutions
2 April 2009, Berlin 1
SEE long‐term power demand growth
Low energy intensity per capita to grow via
dynamic demographic growth, and growing
industrial output limit downward risk
Fundamental lack of generation capacity due
to closures of the aged fleet and
refurbishments; in SEE excluding Turkey only
ca. 40% of capacities built in the last 20 years
Multiple interconnectors planned between,
e.g. CENTREL and SUDEL countries, and
projected Adriatic interconnectors to Italy
Privatisations and market openings in line with
EU directives to stimulate power price re‐
Recently in operation or under construction
evaluations; prices to reach EU levels post 2015
New option
Existing power line
Committed Specific to renewable energy, accelerated
Existing adoption of incentives to meet EU standards
2 April 2009, Berlin
On‐going greenfield projects’ dynamics
2 April 2009, Berlin 4
Selected privatisation primers & associated opportunities
Source: 1) Ministry of Energy and Mining, Belgrade, January 2009; 2) Net capacity as per HSE, 2008; 3) Energy Development Strategy of Montenegro by 2025;
4) Renewable Energy Wordpress
2 April 2009, Berlin 5
Price support mechanism and investment incentives – case study
Energy policy
translating into New: Decree on conditions for acquiring status of Privileged Power Producer
favourable financial (12 years): 1) SHPPs of up to 10 MW, 2) co‐generation of up to 10 MW, 3) Power
terms for investors plants that use at least 90% renewables except biomass, and 4) Power plants
and developers – SEE
that use at least 80% of biomass
primer: new legal
framework by New: Decree on Market Model for Privileged Power Producers: power purchase
Republic of Serbia, agreement with EPS and stipulated feed‐in tariff – assumptions:
Ministry of Energy
o purchase price, expressed in c€/kWh, guaranteed and fixed during the 12 years
and Mining prepared
for adoption o feed‐in tariffs for old power plants out of commission for at least five years are
April/May 2009, and separately defined to encourage revitalisation and re‐entering in operation
existing investment Existing: Investment incentives applicable to RES projects:
incentives
o Grant of Euro 2,000‐5,000 per new job created; minimal investment value within the
range of Euro 1‐3 million; minimal number of new jobs is 50
Overall, in the whole o Exemption from corporate profit tax for 10 years for over Euro 6.8 million in fixed assets
of the SEE region o Tax credits
progress on certain o Accelerated depreciation of fixed assets used for the prevention of air pollution, water
key issues influenced
and soil pollution, noise reduction, energy savings...
by EU integration /
membership talks o Free import of goods that are the foreign investor’s nominal capital (founding capital);
further tax and customs relate deductions in line with the law
Please see Appendix for further detail.
Source: Republic of Serbia, Ministry of Energy and Mining, January 2009
2 April 2009, Berlin 6
SEE power sector competitive landscape
2 April 2009, Berlin 7
Emphasis on prudent M&A principles
Unpredictable processes and Particularly careful handling of an upfront
counterparties often a distinct possibility agreed deal timeline and a generally
due to the above conservative approach do help
Timing Difficult balance between the standard If closing prone to legal challenges by third
need for confidentiality vs. helpful parties before administrative jurisdictions ,
transparency to aid local processes “break‐fees “required
2 April 2009, Berlin 8
Q&A
Thank you.
LB Capital
Berkeley Square House
Berkeley Square
London W1J 6BD
Telephone: + 44 20 7396 5585
Mobile: + 44 788 151 6831
Facsimile: + 44 20 7887 6001
E‐mail: dnovak@lb‐capital.com
2 April 2009, Berlin 9
Appendix: Feed‐in tariffs planned adoption March/April 2009 ( 1 / 2 )
2 April 2009, Berlin
Appendix: Feed‐in tariffs planned adoption March/April 2009 ( 2 / 2 )
Wind 11,5
2 April 2009, Berlin
APPENDIX ‐ Decree on Market Model for Privileged Producers (1/2)
Monitoring
Feed‐in tariff
SHPP up to 10 MW
Request for interim Status
of privileged power
producer – up to 3 years
Power plants that use at least
90% renewables except biomass
Ministry of Mining
and Energy
Privileged Power Producer
Minister
Power plants that use at least
80% of biomass
Request for Status of
privileged power
producer
Cogeneration up to 10 MW
Decision on granting Status of privileged power
producer – up to 12 years
Source: Republic of Serbia, Ministry of Energy and Mining, January 2009
2 April 2009, Berlin
APPENDIX ‐ Decree on Market Model for Privileged Producers (2/2)
Feed‐in tariff
Cost of RES‐E
Power
Electric Power Industry of +
Purchase Regulatory Energy Agency
Privileged Power Produces Serbia (EPS) – Supplier for
Agreement Cost of balancing
Tariff consumers
Electricity Payment for
RES‐E
Price of electricity for
tariff consumer
Consumer
Transmission System
Operator (EMS) – billing of
Source: Republic of Serbia, Ministry of Energy and Mining, cost of RES‐E through
January 2009 transmission tariff
2 April 2009, Berlin
APPENDIX – Comparative analysis of select regional stimuli packages
FiT/Green
Main System FiT FiT Green Certificates FiT FiT
Bonuses
2 April 2009, Berlin