ECE 6379

Power System Operations and

Modeling
College of Engineering
University of Houston

Professor Xingpeng Li
 U.S. Power Systems
• Some numbers about U.S. Power Systems
• Transmission lines: 390,000+ miles
• High voltage lines: ~200,000 miles
• Power plants: 8,000+
• Electric utilities: 3,000+
• Customers: 145+ million
• Electric power system infrastructure asset: $1,000 billion
• Transmission infrastructure investment: $10+ billion/year

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 Some Numbers
1 short ton (U.S. ton) = 2,000 pounds
1 long ton (British ton) = 2,240 pounds
1 metric ton (tonne) = 1,000 kilograms (~2,204 pounds)
Mega = 106
Giga = 109
Tera = 1012
1 million = 106
1 billion = 109
1 trillion = 1012 3
 Some Numbers
1 barrel (bbl): 42 U.S. gallon (or 159 liters).
1 bbl of crude oil contains 5.8 million Btu (MBtu) heat
(energy) content.
BTU: British thermal unit, a unit of heat (energy).
1 Btu = 0.293 Watt hour (Wh).
1 Wh = 3.412 Btu; 1 kWh = 3,412 Btu.
Oil price was ~67 $/bbl in August 2005; ~72 $/bbl in
June 2007; 68 $/bbl in July 2009; all time historic high
of 124 $/bbl in May 2008.
On July 12, 2019, the oil price was at 60$/bbl. 4
 Example
There is an oil-fired generator that burns oil to produce
electricity. The energy efficiency of this unit is 35%.
Assume the oil price is 60$/bbl and 1 bbl of oil contains
5.8 million Btu heat.
Then, what is the electricity cost ($/kWh) for this oil-
fired generator?
• 5,800,000 / 3,412 = 1,700 kWh
• 1,700 * 35% = 595 kWh
• $60/595kWh = 0.1 $/kWh = 10 cents/kWh
• Is this a cheap generator?
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 World Power Generation
World electricity generation by source

2014 (Percentages of 23,816 TWh) 2016 (Percentages of 24,973 TWh)

https://www.iea.org/
6
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy#cite_note-IEA-Report-keyworld-2018-1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption#cite_note-iea16-13
1 TWh = 1,000 GWh
 Load Factor
Load Factor (LF) = Total energy used / ( (Peak Demand) *
Length of Period).
or,
Load Factor (LF) = Average Load / Peak Load.
• LF is a measure of capacity utilization; it indicates how effectively
the system installed generation capacity is used.
• The higher, the better --- efficient utilization of the capacity.
• LF requires a given time period and it could be:
• Daily Load Factor
• Monthly Load Factor
• Seasonal Load Factor
• Annual Load Factor 7
 Load Factor
Example:
What is the daily load factor for a test system with the following
aggregated system load profile? Load Factor (LF) = Area under
Curve/ (area of the entire box).
Daily Load Profile
150
120
90
60
30
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Load Peak Load

Typical annual LF is less than 50% in residential

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areas, but it can be 60 – 70% in industrial areas.
 Load Factor
Example:
What is the daily load factor for a test system with the following
aggregated system load profile?
Load Profile
140
100/120 * 100%
120
= 83%
100

80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
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 Generation Efficiency
Generation Efficiency
• The electric power plant efficiency η is defined as the ratio
between useful electricity output from the generating unit, in a
specific time period, and the energy value of the energy source
supplied to the unit, within the same time.
• η = (Electric Energy Produced) / (Energy Contained in
Consumed Fuels).
• The average efficiency of power generation is ~35% for coal, and
38% for oil in 2010.

• https://geospatial.blogs.com/geospatial/2010/01/energy-efficiency-of-fossil-fuel-power-generation.html
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_conversion_efficiency
• EFFICIENCY INELECTRICITY GENERATION, July 2003, Union of the electricity industry. Available at:
https://wecanfigurethisout.org/ENERGY/Web_notes/Bigger%20Picture/Where%20do%20we%20go%20-%20Supporting%20- 10
%20Files/Efficiency%20in%20Electricity%20Generation%20-%20EURELECTRIC.pdf
 Generation Efficiency
Theoretical efficiency of converting various energy sources
into useful electrical energy:

Thermal power plants:

• Boiler: chemical energy ->
thermal energy
• Turbine: thermal energy ->
mechanical energy
• Generator: mechanical energy ->
electric energy
Source - Eurelectric
https://www.mpoweruk.com/energy_efficiency.htm 11
https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1022&context=psr
 Economic Importance
The efficient and optimum economic operation and
planning of electric power generation systems have
always occupied an important position in the electric
power industry.
• Prior to 1973, electric utilities in the United States spent
about 20% of their total revenues on fuel for the production
of electrical energy.
• That figure had risen to more than 40% of the total revenues
by 1980.
• The efficient use of the available fuel is important.

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 Economic Importance
What is the annual operating expenses of a large utility
for purchasing fuel? Assume the following parameters for
a moderately large system:
• Annual peak load: 10,000 MW (104 MW).
• Annual load factor: 60%.
• Average annual heat rate for converting fuel to electric energy:
10,500 Btu/kWh.
• Average fuel cost: $3.0 per million Btu (MBtu), corresponding to
oil priced at 18$/bbl.

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 Economic Importance
With these assumptions, the total annual fuel cost for this
system is as follows:
• Annual energy produced: 107 kW × 8760 h/year × 0.60 = 5.256 ×
1010 kWh
• Annual fuel consumption: 10,500 Btu/kWh × 5.256 × 1010 kWh =
55.188 × 1013 Btu
• Annual fuel cost: 55.188 × 1013 Btu × 3 × 10−6 $/Btu = $1.66 billion

❑ This represents a direct requirement for revenues from the average

customer of 3.15 cents/kWh just to recover the expense for fuel.
❑ A savings in the operation of this system of a small percent
represents a significant reduction in operating cost as well as in the
quantities of fuel consumed. 14
 Characteristics of Steam Units
• Though there are many possible parameters of interest,
fundamental to the economic operating problem is the
set of input–output characteristics of a thermal power
generation unit.

Thermal power plants:

• Boiler: chemical energy ->
thermal energy
• Turbine: thermal energy ->
mechanical energy
• Generator: mechanical energy ->
electric energy 15
 Heat Rate
• The heat rate is expressed as the heat energy needed to
produce one unit of electricity.
• A term commonly used in power stations to indicate the plant
efficiency. It is the inverse of the generation efficiency.
• Heat rate = (Energy In) / (Energy Out)
• Typically expressed in MBtu/MWh or Btu/Wh.
• Actual heat rate value is dimensionless.
• Low heat rate: GOOD.
• High heat rate: BAD.

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 Heat Rate
• Since heat rate and generation efficiency are inversely
related to each other, we can convert one from another.
• Example: if the heat rate of a power plant is 12,500
Btu/kWh, what is this plant’s efficiency?
• Efficiency = 1 / heat rate = 1 / (12500 Btu/(3412 Btu) ) =
3412/12500 = 27.3%.

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 Heat Rate
• Heat rate is in MBtu/MWh.
• Heat content is in MBtu/ton (or MBtu/bbl).
• Fuel cost is in $/ton (or $/bbl).
• Electricity Cost?
• The cost to generate electricity can be measured in
$/MWh:
• Electricity Cost = (Heat Rate) * (Fuel Cost) / (Heat
Content of Fuel)
• $/MWh = ?
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 Heat Rate
• Example 1: assume the heat rate of a coal power plant
is 10,000 Btu/kWh (i.e. 10 MBtu/MWh), and the coal
price is $40/ton and coal heat content is 25 MBtu/ton.
What is the cost for producing 1 MWh electricity?
• Cost ($/MWh) ?
= (Heat Rate) * (Fuel Cost) / (Heat Content of Fuel)
= 10 MBtu/MWh * $40/ton / (25 MBtu/ton)
= 16 $/MWh
• Example 2: what if the heat rate of this coal power
plant is 15,000 Btu/kwh (i.e. 15 MBtu/MWh)?
• Cost would be 24$/MWh. High heat rate is BAD! 19
 Input-Output Curve
• y-axis: MBtu/h (another form of heat rate)
• x-axis: MW (generator’s net output)
This curve defines the total heat
energy (MBtu) required to
produce P units (MWs) of power
for one hour.
Some researchers refer this
curve as: Total Heat Rate Curve

Why are there a Pmin & a Pmax

for the generator output power?
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 Input-Output Curve
Why are there a Pmin & a Pmax?
• Limits on the mechanical input power from prime mover
(turbine) impose constraints on active power generation.
• To properly burn the fuel and ensure the turbine working
in normal operation conditions, Pmin is required.
• Pmax is the point when a generator starts to breakdown
electrical components or cause damage to electrical
components.

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 Input-Output Curve
• y-axis: $/h
• x-axis: MW (generator’s net output)
This curve defines the total fuel
cost ($) required to produce P
units (MWs) of power for one
hour.
This curve is referred to as:
Total Cost Curve

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 Incremental Curve
• y-axis: MBtu/h (heat rate) or $/h (cost)
• x-axis: MW (generator’s net output)
Incremental heat rate curve v.s. Incremental cost curve
This incremental heat rate (or cost) curve is the slope
(derivative) of the associated input-output curve.

Incremental (or marginal) cost

curves are frequently used to
determine dispatch levels for a
collection of generators.

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 Net Heat Rate Curve
• y-axis: MBtu/MWh or MBtu/kWh
• x-axis: MW (generator’s net output)

What is the difference between the net heat rate

curve and incremental heat rate curve?

Some researchers refer this curve

as: Average Heat Rate Curve.

When this curve is multiplied by

fuel cost, it becomes: Average
Cost Curve.

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 Net Heat Rate Curve
• For the average heat rate curve, it has a minimum that is
at 𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 .
• Why the minimum is at the middle of that curve rather
than its two ends?

• Also, think about

where is the minimum
of the incremental
heat rate curve?

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 Net Heat Rate Curve
• Typically, the total heat rate (cost) curve is represented by a
quadratic function with a constant term:
𝑎𝑃2 + 𝑏𝑃 + 𝑐
• Then, the average heat rate (cost) curve is:
(𝑎𝑃2 + 𝑏𝑃 + 𝑐 ) 𝒄
= 𝑎𝑃 + 𝑏 +
𝑃 𝑷
• Apparently, the constant term c is the key.
• This term c corresponds to a fixed cost, a cost that cannot be
avoided in order to operate the generator safely and stably
no matter how much power (>= Pmin) it produces.
• It is called no-load cost in power system operations.
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 Non-convex Heat Rate Curve
• Large steam turbine generators may have a number of
steam admission valves (controls the flow of steam to
the turbine) that are opened in sequence to obtain ever-
increasing output of the unit.
Characteristics of a steam turbine generator with 4 valves:

Total Heat Rate Curve Incremental Heat Rate Curve 27

 Non-convex Heat Rate Curve
• As the unit loading increases, the input to the unit increases and
the incremental heat rate decreases between the opening points
for any two valves.
• However, when a valve is first opened, the throttling losses
increase rapidly and the incremental heat rate rises suddenly.

This gives rise to the discontinuous

type of incremental heat rate
characteristic.

Incremental Heat Rate Curve for a unit with 4 valves 28

Determining Cost Function

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 Determining Cost Function
To model and determine the required fuel amount
(heat rate) or the cost for a unit to produce electric
power at a given level, we can use:
• Look-up table method.
• Linear approximation (a single straight line).
• Quadratic approximation.
• Other higher order polynomial approximation.

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 Determining Cost Function
Typical quadratic total cost (or heat rate) function:
𝑓 𝑃 = 𝑎2 𝑃2 + 𝑎1 𝑃 + 𝑎0
Given a function and multiple observations (P versus f(P)
pairs), how to determine the three coefficients?
• Use least-squares method to determine the optimal coefficients
that result in minimal errors.
𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑟 = ෍{𝑓 𝑃𝑖 − 𝑎2 𝑃𝑖 2 + 𝑎1 𝑃𝑖 + 𝑎0 }2
𝑖∈𝐼 r is called the ‘residual’.
• This is to solve unconstrained optimization problem.
• Objective: minimize total sum of square
• Constraints: None. Variables: 𝑎2 , 𝑎1 , 𝑎0 .
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 Determining Cost Function
How to solve this unconstrained optimization problem
𝑚
ถ 𝑖𝑛 𝑟 = ෍{𝑓 𝑃𝑖 − 𝑎2 𝑃𝑖 2 + 𝑎1 𝑃𝑖 + 𝑎0 }2
(𝑎2 ,𝑎1 ,𝑎0 ) 𝑖∈𝐼

Solution: set the derivatives to zeros and solve!

𝜕𝑟
= ෍[2 ∗ 𝑓 𝑃𝑖 − 𝑎2 𝑃𝑖 2 + 𝑎1 𝑃𝑖 + 𝑎0 ∗ (−𝑃𝑖 2 )] = 0
𝜕𝑎2
𝑖∈𝐼
𝜕𝑟
= ෍[2 ∗ 𝑓 𝑃𝑖 − 𝑎2 𝑃𝑖 2 + 𝑎1 𝑃𝑖 + 𝑎0 ∗ −𝑃𝑖 ] = 0
𝜕𝑎1
𝑖∈𝐼
𝜕𝑟
= ෍[2 ∗ 𝑓 𝑃𝑖 − 𝑎2 𝑃𝑖 2 + 𝑎1 𝑃𝑖 + 𝑎0 ∗ −1 ] = 0
𝜕𝑎0
𝑖∈𝐼 32
 Determining Cost Function
Example: Actual Cost
Power
Determine the coefficients for a quadratic i
(MW)
per Hour
($/h)
function for a generator cost curve given
1 30 1253
the test data shown in the table.
2 50 1840
3 70 2453
2
𝑟 = ෍{𝑓 𝑃𝑖 − 𝑎2 𝑃𝑖 − 𝑎1 𝑃𝑖 − 𝑎0 }2 4 90 3049
𝑖∈𝐼 5 110 3670
= (1253 − 900𝑎2 − 30𝑎1 − 𝑎0 )2
𝑖 ∈ 𝐼 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}
+(1840 − 2500𝑎2 − 50𝑎1 − 𝑎0 )2
+(2453 − 4900𝑎2 − 70𝑎1 − 𝑎0 )2
+(3049 − 8100𝑎2 − 90𝑎1 − 𝑎0 )2
+(3670 − 12100𝑎2 − 110𝑎1 − 𝑎0 )2 33
 Determining Cost Function
Solution: set the derivatives to zeros and solve!
𝜕𝑟
0= = σ𝑖∈𝐼[2 ∗ 𝑓 𝑃𝑖 − 𝑎2 𝑃𝑖 2 + 𝑎1 𝑃𝑖 + 𝑎0 ∗ (−𝑃𝑖 2 )]
𝜕𝑎2

= 2 ∗ 1253 − 900𝑎2 − 30𝑎1 − 𝑎0 ∗ (−900)

+2 ∗ 1840 − 2500𝑎2 − 50𝑎1 − 𝑎0 ∗ (−2500)
+2 ∗ 2453 − 4900𝑎2 − 70𝑎1 − 𝑎0 ∗ (−4900)
+2 ∗ 3049 − 8100𝑎2 − 90𝑎1 − 𝑎0 ∗ (−8100)
+2 ∗ 3670 − 12100𝑎2 − 110𝑎1 − 𝑎0 ∗ (−12100)

Simplify:
−173,702,600 + 486,180,000 ∗ 𝑎2 + 5,110,000 ∗ 𝑎1
+ 57,000 ∗ 𝑎0 = 0
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 Determining Cost Function
𝜕𝑟 𝜕𝑟
Similarly, = 0 and = 0 can derive:
𝜕𝑎1 𝜕𝑎0

−1,958,820 + 5,110,000 ∗ 𝑎2 + 57,000 ∗ 𝑎1 + 700 ∗ 𝑎0 = 0

−24,530 + 57,000 ∗ 𝑎2 + 700 ∗ 𝑎1 + 10 ∗ 𝑎0 = 0

Now, we have three unknown variables in three

equations; solve it:
𝑎2 = 0.0091 𝑎1 = 28.94 𝑎0 = 375.29

then, we get a quadratic cost (or, heat rate) curve model for
this generator.
𝑓 𝑃 = 0.0091𝑃2 + 28.94𝑃 + 375.29 35