Coursework confirmation Yes A 3 ac eo No amWhen the next world record will occur and what will be the gold medal time at the olympics in the 100m sprint?1. Introduction “This investigation aims to find when the next world record time in the 100-metre sprint willbe, and what the 100-metre sprint gold medal time wil be in 2020. The topic is of significance to me bbecause | have been competitively running in the 100-metre event within my state for many years now ‘and | have started to see my personal best take longer to surpass and is beaten in smaller increments. This made me think that perhaps I could predict when the next world record would be achieved inthe 1100-metre sprint and predict the time in the 2020 Olympics. | have not found much information on this ‘and felt this was an opportunity to log my thinking, ‘The data | will be using wil be from the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF). To create a data set that would best suit my aim Buses the year the ne was ecorded and the inet. Thi allowed eto “2! graphthe pins themselves, Figure 2) Seatter World Record Progression (2912-2009) ogression ( 7 Bt In FIGURE #1, much ofthe data was only recorded with a single decimal point 8 mostly due to the lack of advanced technology at that time. This may reduce the accuracy ofthe graph and create parts where many people seem to have achieved the same record. As seen in FIGURE #2, there isa clear trend tothe set ‘of data, which appears to be linear; witha strong negative correlation, which ‘means that high X variable scores go with low ¥ variable scores. To find the linear‘rend | wil find the average X and Y value and using the ‘mean point’ mathematical techniques to create ‘an average linear gradient. 24166741.06 690228.08 — 241674106 (stx))?=e- EP? 250.236 132130210 — 4863 _13479721287.72818 =y= 2 - PGR) - 250.236 _ 3 = =giroraiper.7a518 * — 1964.6) = 1.85639...E-8 = 0,0000000185639 y = 10.042 = 0.0000000185639x — 0.00003647063 10.042 — 0.00003647063 = 10.04196 +7 = 0.0000000185639x + 10,04196 Change in Y Change in X Values YValues Points: 3 = 68761 y= 3546 (2000,9.51) Mean=19646 Mean=10.042 _(1921,10.1125) _y=-0.0085x+26.451FIGURE 3). Trend line to set World Record Progression ih, Reflection Ate averagingallof the XandY values using my eye drew ane, for which fet woul be the ros acurate postion, then hase 2 pins on theline, and found the grade of heline This tend lin not opty accurate tothe Seto data. A better linear trend ln oul be found by sing technology however, thisis not considered worth because of my knowledge of printing ‘Adaionaly, futher inspection ofthe graph reveal that obviously the most cera renline sot tningo be linear function because there a sight bend inthe direction of the dataset, almostike a BS” regression line This trend more consistenty looks Ike a logarithmic function even. Perhaps a Rt logarithmic trendline would hes the et of data shown in FIGURE #2. To get a more accurate rend line ony use the ferent coloured dotsn FIGURE Hs because there seems tobe a pattern inthe sinicant world record changes (egnifcant being record made and esting he previous recor by at lest 0.1 secon) wl rece the numberof ecard changes Inthe dts sto achieve amore ‘consistent trend in the 100-metre sprint.World Record Progression 1900 3920 1300 1960 1980 2000 m0 Year New function Within the dataset used in FIGURE #1, | have noticed an anomaly. This sa world recordset in 1988 and was 9.79 seconds. Tis time in the current trajectory fr the 100-metre sprint seemed excessively fast. After some research, | found that the record was not clean. Ben Johnson's time of 9.79 fon September 24,1988 was disallowed and never ratified asa record ashe tested positive for stanozolol after the race. illegal substances should not be acceptable to abuse in any manner ina competitive sport. This provides an unfair advantage tothe substance abuser. Therefore, lll not be using his, prone dd aad oe ota wel ond nyt ead ii A FIGURE #5In FIGURE #5, the function I chose to start with was log x. obviously this function is around the ‘wrong way. Using my transformation knowledge if! can swap the postive and negative values til be able to find a more accurate trend line to my set of data. One way of doing this would be making the function -log x FIGURE #6 "Now thatthe function is starting to take shape as seen in FIGURE #6 I now need to move It to the right so that I can see the data points. This means sifting the whole function tothe right around 1912 points.-1 (41910) should shift the function tothe right wee] | a Ta co ‘Now that both the points andthe trend line can be seen, ! will need to adjust the Y— value ‘upward and try to match the data points withthe 100-metre times. To shift the function vertically! wil ‘need to add ~1og (x-1910) + D, D being the number Iwill shift the function by to overlap the data.FIGURE #8 ap This function, although not complete yet, already looks more accurate than the linear trendline created earlier. To vertically shift my function to the point shown in FIGURE #8 | made D(in—log (x-1910 +) equal 11. Now to increase the accuracy further | will need to combine these transformation techniques. Figure #9 || | a a a Mised oppor ity: perforin a logthe cegresion for comparison.‘This year | hope to be competing at national evel inthe 100 metre sprint to once again reach my goals and get anew personal bes (although not close to 9.51). This investigation has created a function that In theory could predict the next world recordin the 100 metre, but in practice realise that there are many other externalities that completely disregard the theory, being wind speed, track wear, and tgenetics ofthe runnersin the race. As seen throughout history, competitors have constantly searched for an upper hand agznst the other runners and thisisfine. Sprintrs may do altitude training to increase oxygen intake and other things but illegal substance abuse Is shown to be harmful to the reputation of the sport and the individual abuser as well. Overall, lam rather exited forthe ahead 2020 Olympics and hope to grab myself a ticket to attend,