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washingtonpost.com

As prices rise, Europeans divided over how

Ukraine war should end
Ellen Francis, Annabelle Timsit
5-6 minuta

As the war in Ukraine drags on through its fourth month, Europeans remain
largely united in backing Kyiv, but they are divided over how long they’re willing
to endure the conflict’s economic fallout, a poll published Wednesday shows.
The survey across 10 European countries suggests public attention may turn from
the war to fears about its wider impact, particularly the rising cost of living on the
continent. European governments will have to contend with those concerns as
they seek to maintain pressure against Moscow, analysts say.
Slightly more than a third of those surveyed want the war to be over as soon as
possible, even at the expense of Ukrainian territorial concessions, while 22
percent say it should last as long as it takes to punish Russia and restore all of
Ukraine’s land.
Still, the participants were not divided over support for Ukraine — or about who’s
responsible for the war. A large majority, 73 percent, mainly blame Moscow, and
64 percent believe that Russia, not the United States, the European Union or
Ukraine, is the biggest obstacle to peace.
The poll, published by the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank and
conducted online by YouGov and the research firm Datapraxis, surveyed 8,172
adults in 10 European countries, including Germany, Romania and Sweden,
between late April and mid-May.
Respondents were split into those who said they favor “peace,” even if that
involves concessions from Ukraine, and those who view “justice” as the priority,
even if it means a protracted conflict. A fifth of the voters “swing” between the two
and still want a strong European response, while the rest said they didn’t know.
The sentiments will affect European policy on Ukraine, according to the report’s
authors, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard of the ECFR.
“The findings of the poll suggest that European public opinion is shifting, and that
the toughest days may lie ahead,” they wrote. Europeans are also worried about
the threat of nuclear escalation, and if the feeling grows that sanctions on Russia

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“are failing to bring results,” the divide between those who want to end the war
quickly and those who want to see Russia defeated will grow, the report says.
In all 10 countries in the survey apart from Ukraine’s neighbor Poland, the first
camp — for “peace” — is larger than the second, labeled “justice.” Many of those in
the first category worry their governments are prioritizing “action against Russia
ahead of other important issues, such as rising inflation and the cost-of-living
crisis,” the ECFR said.

Cars line up at a gas station near Munich on June 1 after a temporary reduction in
the energy tax intended to lower rising prices. (Lukas Barth/Reuters)
As economies are still recovering from the coronavirus pandemic, Russia’s war in
Ukraine propelled already rising inflation in countries that use the euro to a
record high in May, with energy projected to have the steepest annual rate. And
that was before an E.U. deal this month to phase out most imports of Russian oil,
spurred by mounting evidence of Russian war crimes in Kyiv’s suburbs.
The prospect of a drawn-out conflict, with the battle for eastern Ukraine raging,
has raised questions about whether war fatigue, coupled with skyrocketing food
prices and energy bills, could test countries’ political will to keep pressuring
Moscow over time.
On Sunday, President Biden blamed the Russian invasion of Ukraine for rising
U.S. gas prices, saying it was “outrageous what the war in Ukraine is causing.”
As E.U. countries negotiated an oil embargo last month, a Belgian member of the
European Parliament hailed the response to Russian aggression, while warning of
rising unemployment and energy poverty.
The Western sanctions that hit the Russian economy “will also affect the lives of
European citizens, with a direct impact on their homes, their jobs, their wallets,”

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lawmaker Sara Matthieu told her colleagues. She urged the 27-nation bloc to help
mitigate the rise in prices and “protect our citizens, specifically those at risk of
falling into poverty, people that are afraid of not being able to heat their homes
next winter.”
The impact on European households has prompted a range of policy moves.
Germany, for example, is offering temporary energy tax reductions and issuing a
monthly 9 euro ticket for public transportation.
Governments are “walking a fine line,” said Tyler Kustra, an assistant professor of
international relations at the University of Nottingham in England, whose
research focuses on economic sanctions.
“I think there is tremendous disquiet across Europe over the cost of living. These
things are things you can’t not buy. You need food; you need heat,” he said.
“I think we have to remember how much we don’t want a war in Europe and how
much we have to hold the line against Vladimir Putin,” Kustra added. “There isn’t
one option that is win-win; it’s a series of unfortunate trade-offs. This is why we
need this war to end.”

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