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DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2136
RESEARCH ARTICLE
KEYWORDS
Amihud illiquidity measure, CAPM, Fama–French model, market anomalies, market efficiency,
time-varying beta
Int J Fin Econ. 2020;1–16. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/ijfe © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 1
2 ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL.
CAPM. These anomalies not only lead to an increase in For the specific case of the United Kingdom equity mar-
the gap between betas and expected returns, but in many ket, interestingly, Cuthbertson, Hayes, and Nit-
cases they also result in inverse patterns between both zsche (1997) clearly reject efficiency for the period from
variables. Remarkably, Cochrane (2011) shows that the 1918 to 1993. However, the authors show that the CAPM
CAPM works correctly prior 1963, properly capturing the provides results that are close to efficiency, despite the
value effect (see Figure A1 of his paper), that is, produc- fact that tests for short-termism provide evidence to the
ing higher betas for value portfolios and lower betas for contrary. Additionally, recent research expands the scope
growth portfolios. Conversely, for the period 1963–2009, of analysis, covering topics such as the relation between
the author shows that exactly the opposite is true. Since market anomalies and the real economy, while increas-
the pattern of expected returns persists (i.e., value stocks ing the focus on the persistence of alphas rather than
still provide the highest expected returns, and vice versa), their magnitude (Van Binsbergen & Opp, 2019).
this completely ruins the performance of the CAPM. Despite the above, research on stock return predict-
In any case, recent research on asset pricing shows ability has contributed to largely explain the failure of
how the high liquidity resulting from the globalization of classic assetpricing models. According to Roll's theorem
financial markets has significantly reduced returns tied (Roll, 1977), any portfolio on the mean–variance frontier
to many strategies based on market anomalies. Conse- contains exactly the same information about asset prices
quently, questions arise about a hypothetical renovated as the wealth portfolio –commonly proxied by a broad-
validity of classic assetpricing models, and more specifi- based portfolio such as the value-weighted London Stock
cally the CAPM. Accordingly, in this paper we study to Exchange portfolio. Therefore, the whole issue consists in
what extent the CAPM has recovered its past explanatory finding an efficient portfolio, which, together with the
power in one of the largest equity markets in the world risk-free rate, allows investors to price every asset. If mar-
according to the World Federation of Exchanges, the ket returns are independent and identically distributed
London Stock Exchange. Besides the classic constant beta (i.i.d.), this will be achieved simply by compiling enough
model (hereafter referred to as classic CAPM), we pro- historical data to ensure that estimates are statistically
pose a time-varying beta CAPM (hereafter referred to as significant. However, since return predictability and
scaled CAPM) that allows us to control for the variable time-varying expected returns are interchangeable terms,
nature of beta risk to changes in market illiquidity. We the forecastable nature of stock returns completely ruins
use the Amihud illiquidity measure to account for the the CAPM results out-of-sample, even when the model
degree of trading activity (Amihud, 2002). However, perfectly fits in-sample. Given the large number of vari-
unlike the majority of the literature, in order to avoid ables useful for forecasting stock returns,1 the poor
problems arising from the non-stationarity of this indica- results of the CAPM arise mainly from the variable
tor in sample, we use variations instead of levels. As nature of the expected returns, rather than arising from
shown below, our results reveal that, using market data other problems such as the difficulties in correctly deter-
for the period from January 1989 to December 2018, the mining the wealth portfolio. Table 1 summarizes the
pricing errors of the classic CAPM have significantly results achieved by some recent tests on the CAPM,
decreased with respect to those of previous literature. which typically introduce some variation to the classic
Moreover, the scaled CAPM performs similarly to the model, or conceive the proof as a way to highlight the
Fama–French models in most cases. strengths of some alternative assetpricing model.
While the first studies on market anomalies focus on The majority of the literature deals with this problem
several relations not captured by the CAPM, such as by using multifactor assetpricing models, which can be
those of expected returns with the size of the firm viewed as closed-form solutions for more general models
(Banz, 1981), the book-to-market equity (Basu, 1983), the such as the intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) or the arbi-
price-to-earnings ratio (Rosenberg, Reid, & trage pricing theory (hereafter, APT). The ICAPM
Lanstein, 1985), the past short-term returns (Jegadeesh & (Merton, 1973) assumes that investors face shifts in the
Titman, 1993) or the past sales growth (Lakonishok, investment opportunity set which can be captured by dif-
Shleifer, & Vishny, 1994), currently many other variables ferent state variables. This approach automatically gives
constitute anomalies in the framework of classic rise to a multifactor assetpricing model, with the state
assetpricing models. Such is the case of accruals variables as right-hand side variables. Since shifts in the
(Sloan, 1996), idiosyncratic volatility (Ang, Hodrick, environment determine changes in the conditional distri-
Xing, & Zhang, 2006), asset growth (Cooper, Gulen, & bution of asset returns over time, the state variables must
Schill, 2008), net stock issuance (Fama & French, 2008), have some predictive power (Cochrane, 2005, p. 172). On
return-on-book equity (Chen, Novy-Marx, & the other hand, the APT (Ross, 1976) adopts a different
Zhang, 2011) or gross profitability (Novy-Marx, 2013). perspective, assuming that stocks share strong common
ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL. 3
Passes model
Reference Country Test assets Sample Model R 2 statistic evaluation test
Campbell, Giglio, Polk, US 25 portfolios BE/ME, 6 risk- 1931–1963 Classic CAPM 74% No (J-test)
and Turley (2018) sorted portfolios, 18 1963–2011 Classic CAPM −20% No (J-test)
characteristic- and risk-
sorted portfolios and
managed versions of these
portfolios
Hyde and Sherif (2010) UK 9 industry portfolios and 6 1975–2005 Conditional Multiple No (J-test)
size-BE/ME portfolios CAPM values, poor
results
Jagannathan and US 100 size-beta portfolios 1963–1990 Classic CAPM 1.35% No (HJ-distance)
Wang (1996) Conditional 29.32% No (HJ-distance)
CAPM
Conditional 55.21% Yes (HJ-distance)
CAPM with
human capital
Jagannathan and US 25 size-BE/ME portfolios 1954–2003 Classic CAPM 0% No (HJ-distance)
Wang (2007)
Lettau and US 25 size-BE/ME portfolios 1963–1998 Classic CAPM 1% No (χ 2 test)
Ludvigson (2001) Conditional 31% Yes (χ 2 test)
CAPM
Conditional 77% Yes (χ 2 test)
CAPM with
human capital
Lustig and Van US 25 size-BE/ME portfolios and 1926–2002 Classic CAPM 28.3% Not reported
Nieuwerburgh (2005) the value-weighted market Collateral- 87.8% Not reported
return CAPM
Maio and Santa- US 25 size-BE/ME portfolios 1963–2008 Classic CAPM −0.42% Not reported
Clara (2012) 25 size-momentum portfolios 1963–2008 Classic CAPM −0.09% Not reported
Yogo (2006) US 25 size-BE/ME portfolios 1951–2001 Classic CAPM −62% No (J-test)
Note: Conditional versions of the model use different variables as instruments. Hyde and Sherif (2010) use the lagged excess market return,
the yield on a console bond less the return on a 30-day bill, the term premium calculated as the return for holding a 90-day bill for 1 month
in excess of the return on a 30-day bill, and the dividend yield spread. Jagannathan and Wang (1996) use the yield spread between BAA- and
AAA-rated bonds. Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) use the consumption-wealth ratio (cay). Lustig and Van Nieuwerburgh (2005) use the ratio
of housing wealth to human wealth (my). R2 statistics are not adjusted for degrees of freedom.
components –factors– and idiosyncratic movements do in the form of bounds on the Sharpe ratios of factor port-
not carry information about prices. Specifically, the APT folios and asset payoffs.
assumes that the errors provided by the regression of Although in practice it is often difficult to sort multi-
asset payoffs (i.e., returns, excess returns, etc.) on factors factor models into one of these two categories, some of
are uncorrelated across assets. Therefore, the APT consti- the most prominent assetpricing models are good exam-
tutes essentially a statistical characterization of asset pay- ples of both ICAPM and APT approaches. This is the case
offs, which does not require the strict economic of the Fama–French three-factor model (Fama &
assumptions tied to the ICAPM. However, in reality asset French, 1993), which adds two extra factors to the classic
payoffs do not follow a perfect factor structure, so the law CAPM –the small minus big market value factor (SMB)
of one price, by itself, can provide arbitrarily wrong and the high minus low book-to-market ratio factor
results (Cochrane, 2005, p. 177). In general, this forces (HML)– and still remains one of the most successful
the model to embed some economic restrictions, typically assetpricing models in the literature. Carhart (1997)
4 ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL.
studies the persistence of returns in the U.S. mutual fund 62 industry portfolios, and the total sample of 107 portfo-
market, developing a performance attribution model that lios that results from aggregating the previous samples.
adds a momentum factor to the Fama–French three- Parallel to this, we test the performance of the classic
factor model. He achieves results consistent with market CAPM on a set of actively managed portfolios, formed on
efficiency on the basis of his four-factor model. On the the basis of the portfolios defined above and the Amihud
other hand, Fama and French (2015) improve their illiquidity measure of the market as a whole, for the pre-
three-factor model by adding two extra factors, namely, vious year. This allows us to check how the CAPM per-
RMW (the excess return of the most profitable stocks forms in pricing different trading strategies mechanically
minus the least profitable) and CMA (the excess return of driven by the variation in market illiquidity.
firms that invest conservatively minus aggressively). Hereafter, the paper proceeds as follows: Section 2
Notwithstanding the above, recent research shows how defines the model under analysis, Section 3 discusses the
the high global trading activity and the increase in the liquid- results, and Section 4 concludes the paper.
ity are reducing the spreads tied to many strategies based on
market anomalies. While some authors study the effects of the
increased trading activity on specific market anomalies 2 | THE M ODEL
(Green, Hand, & Soliman, 2011; Mashruwala, Rajgopal, &
Shevlin, 2006) and concrete variables, such as the trading costs Given a market that satisfies the law of one price, there is
of institutional investors (Chakravarty, Panchapagesan, & one single stochastic discount factor (SDF) in the payoff
Wood, 2005; French, 2008), others focus on the effects on the space which exactly prices all payoffs (Harrison &
liquidity (Hendershott, Jones, & Menkveld, 2011). Notewor- Kreps, 1979; Ross, 1978; Rubinstein, 2010). Consequently:
thy, Chordia, Roll, and Subrahmanyam (2011) conclude that,
in recent years, stock market intra-day volatility and cross- pt = Et ðmt + 1 xt + 1 Þ, ð1Þ
sectional predictability of returns has decreased, while
information-based trading activity has intensified, resulting in where pt is a N-dimensional vector of prices, mt+1 is the
a higher market efficiency. Consistently, Chordia, Sub- SDF, xt+1 is the N-dimensional vector of future payoffs,
rahmanyam, and Tong (2014) show how the greater trading and Et() is the expectation conditional on information at
activity has significantly downsized the majority of the market time t. Since asset returns are payoffs with price one, we
anomalies. Specifically, their results reveal that average can rewrite expression (1) as follows:
returns provided by strategies based on market anomalies
have approximately halved in recent years due to increases in 1 = Et ðmt + 1 Rt + 1 Þ, ð2Þ
hedge funds activity, short interest and aggregate share turn-
over. Accordingly, McLean and Pontiff (2016) show that port- where Rt+1 is a N-dimensional vector of returns at time t
folio returns tied to 97 variables useful for forecasting cross- + 1. Given that the difference between two returns is an
sectional stock returns are 58% lower post-publication. The excess return, that is, a payoff with price zero, then:
authors emphasize that post-publication declines are stronger
for variables with higher in-sample returns. On the other 0 = Et mt + 1 Ret+ 1 , ð3Þ
hand, returns are higher for portfolios with high idiosyncratic
risk and low liquidity. Bornholt (2013) states that, if the mar-
ket anomalies are not permanent, then the CAPM may be where Ret+ 1 is a N-dimensional vector of excess returns.
revived again. He explains how the beta anomaly –the fact Rearranging expression (3) to express expected excess
that the CAPM tends to underestimate the returns of the port- returns as a function of the SDF:
folios formed by stocks with low betas, and vice versa– has
weakened and it is reasonable to believe that it will disappear cov t mt + 1 , Ret+ 1
Et Ret+ 1 =− , ð4Þ
over time. E t ð mt + 1 Þ
In this paper, we use both the Fama–French three-
and five-factor models (hereafter referred to as FF3 and
FF5 models, respectively) to check the performance of Expression (4) can be easily written in terms of a beta
the scaled CAPM and the robustness of its results, consis- model, simply by multiplying and dividing by vart(mt+1):
tently with common practice in the assetpricing litera-
ture. We test all models on four different sets of cov t mt + 1 , Ret+ 1 vart ðmt + 1 Þ
Et Ret+ 1 = −
portfolios, namely, 25 portfolios sorted by size and book- vart ðmt + 1 Þ E t ð mt + 1 Þ ð5Þ
to-market equity (BE/ME), 20 portfolios sorted by the
= βt mt + 1 ,Rt + 1 λt ðmt + 1 Þ,
e
growth of total assets in the previous fiscal year,
ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL. 5
Assuming a SDF linear in a K-dimensional vector of log utility, the consumption is proportional to wealth, so
factors, mt + 1 = at + b0t f t + 1 , expression (5) gives rise to a f t + 1 = RW 4
t + 1 and expression (6) becomes the CAPM :
factor assetpricing model:
W
Et Ret+ 1 = βt RW
t + 1 ,R t + 1 λt Rt + 1 ,
e
ð10Þ
Et Ret+ 1 = βt f t + 1 , Ret+ 1 λt ðf t + 1 Þ, ð6Þ
u0 ðct + 1 Þ
mt + 1 = β , ð8Þ
u 0 ðc t Þ Rearranging terms, we get the following
scaled CAPM:
where β is the subjective discount factor,3 u0 (ct) is the
marginal utility, and ct is the consumption at time t in E Rte+ 1 = β RtW+ 1 , Rte+ 1 λ RtW+ 1 + β ΔILt ,Rte+ 1 λðΔILt Þ
real units. If the investor's utility function is separable, + β RtW+ 1 ΔILt , Rte+ 1 λ RtW+ 1 ΔILt ,
then u(ct, xt) = υ(ct) + ω(xt), and consumption is the only ð13Þ
relevant variable for asset pricing. In that case, without
assuming any specific property for asset returns, the
ICAPM arises naturally. Specifically, if optimal consump- It is worth noting that the last term on the right-hand
tion is a function of a vector of state variables zt, ct = g side of expression (13) helps us to capture the time-
(zt), then expression (6) holds automatically, with: varying pattern of the parameters in expression (10),
which allows us to express the unconditional mean
0
f t + 1 = RW
t + 1 , zt + 1 , ð9Þ returns in terms of an unconditional multifactor model.
As mentioned above, we use the Amihud illiquid-
ity measure to estimate the illiquidity level of the
where RW t + 1 is the rate of return on a claim to total market, according to the following expression
wealth, or wealth portfolio. It is worth to note that, with (Amihud, 2002):
6 ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL.
where jRi,dj is the absolute return of asset i on day d and and, consequently, lower intercepts, thereby improving
VOLi,d is the volume traded for asset i on day d in cur- the performance of the assetpricing model.
rency units. Although Amihud (2002) remarks that there Finally, following an approach similar to that of
are several aspects that determine the liquidity of Campbell et al. (2018), we also consider managed portfo-
stocks—market value, turnover, or the bid-ask spread, lios that change equity exposure according to the value of
among many others—and it is doubtful that there is a some variable, in this case ΔILt. At this point, it is worth
single measure that captures them all, the Amihud illi- to note that instrumental variables, such as the market
quidity measure is widely used by the literature to proxy illiquidity, may affect indistinctly on both sides of the
the market illiquidity. pricing function. Specifically, given an instrument zt—or
In order to aggregate ILi,d over time, we operate sepa- a vector of instruments—observable at time t, which is
rately in the numerator and denominator of expression informative about the state of the economy or predicts
(14), as follows: returns, then, following the methodology developed by
Hansen and Singleton (1982), we can write the pricing
Q
t function as follows:
jRi,d j
ILi,t = Pdt = 1 , ð15Þ
d = 1 VOLi,d
0 = Et mt + 1 Ret+ 1 zt , ð20Þ
Additionally, to estimate the illiquidity of the market which automatically provides the following model of
as a whole, we calculate the weighted average of ILi,t covariances:
across assets, as:
cov t mt + 1 zt , Ret+ 1
X Et Ret+ 1 =− , ð21Þ
N
ILi,t MEi,t E t ð mt + 1 z t Þ
ILt = , ð16Þ
i=1
ME t
allows us to determine asset returns, (b) market value Given the strong seasonal behaviour of the liquidity
(MV series), (c) market-to-book equity (PTBV series), premium (Batrinca, Hesse, & Treleaven, 2018;
(d) total assets (WC02999 series), (e) return on equity Eleswarapu & Reinganum, 1993), we adapt the approach
(WC08301 series), (f) tax rate (WC08346 series), followed by Jagannathan and Wang (2007) and switch
(g) primary SIC codes, (h) turnover by volume our final series to an annual basis.
(VO series), and (i) the market price (P series). Addition- Table 2 shows the main summary statistics for portfo-
ally, we compile RI, VOL and P series on a daily basis in lios and factors, while Table 3 shows the correlations
order to determine the Amihud illiquidity measure. Fol- between our test assets and the explanatory variables of
lowing Griffin, Kelly, and Nardari (2010), we use the the scaled CAPM, that is, RMRF and ΔIL. As shown,
generic rules provided by the authors for excluding non- both asset growth portfolios and industry portfolios pro-
common equity securities from Datastream data. Specifi- vide moderate mean returns and standard deviations in
cally, we remove from our sample all stocks issued by most cases. However, size portfolios exhibit mean returns
real estate investment trusts, venture capital trusts, cur- and volatilities abnormally high for the first and second
rency funds and exchange traded funds. Table B.1 in Grif- quintiles, mainly due to several specific firms that experi-
fin et al. (2010) lists the Datastream industry codes that enced important price increases in concrete periods. In
correspond to these securities. any case, the size and value effects work as expected, so
We use the three-month interest rate of the Treasury that, in general, the smaller the size and the higher the
Bill for the United Kingdom, as provided by the OECD BE/ME ratio, the higher the mean return, and vice versa.
database, as a proxy for the risk-free rate. With regard to factors, it is worth noting that the mean
We use this data to create four sets of portfolios, which return of RMRF amounts to 12.46%, which is a relatively
constitute our test assets.5 First, we create 25 size-BE/ME high value compared to other stock markets. In fact, the
portfolios, according to the Fama and French (1993) meth- Sharpe ratio of RMRF amounts to 0.7, outperforming
odology. Specifically, at the end of June of each year we other markets with Sharpe ratios of approximately
allocate all stocks to quintiles based on their market equity 0.4–0.5. Remarkably, the standard deviation of ΔIL
and, analogously, we allocate stocks in an independent (45.31%) more than doubles that of RMRF (17.71%),
sort to five BE/ME groups. Size-BE/ME portfolios are which contributes to significantly increase the volatility
determined as the intersection of the size and BE/ME of the SDF, as defined in expression (11).
groups. We determine value-weighted returns on the port- Regarding correlations, Table 3 shows that RMRF is
folios accordingly. Second, we form 20 anomaly portfolios strongly correlated with most portfolios under consider-
using the same approach, this time with total asset growth ation, with coefficients that exceed the 70% in the major-
as sorting variable. Third, we form all possible industry ity of cases. With respect to illiquidity, it should be noted
portfolios according to data available, using two-digit SIC that expression (13) considers ΔIL as measured at time t,
codes. As a result, the total number of industry portfolios while asset returns are measured at time t + 1. In order
amounts to 62. Finally, the fourth dataset comprises all to determine the optimal number of lags for ΔIL, we use
portfolios of the previous samples. It is worth to mention the Akaike information criteria, which provide an opti-
that, although value portfolios have traditionally been a mal lag number equal to 1 year. Accordingly, Table 3
challenging hurdle for the CAPM, Lewellen, Nagel, and shows the correlations between lagged ΔIL and portfolio
Shanken (2010) explain that the strong factor structure of returns. Although the results show that ΔIL is far less
these portfolios can easily lead to overstating the explana- correlated with asset returns than RMRF, many correla-
tory power of assetpricing models. To avoid this, the tions range from 20% to 30%, which reveals a positive
authors suggest using additional portfolios, for example relationship between the variation in market illiquidity
industry portfolios. Additionally, they suggest testing and stock returns.
models in samples that simultaneously combine portfolios In order to test the explanatory power of the model,
formed under different sorting variables. We have followed Table 4 and Figures 1 and 2 show the results provided by
these recommendations to configure our datasets. the scaled CAPM, according to expression (13), as well as
We use FF3 and FF5 models to compare their results those provided by the classic CAPM and the Fama–
with those provided by the scaled CAPM. Consequently, French models. We use GMM to estimate together time-
we use our data series to determine the required factors, series and cross-section parameters, correcting standard
following the Fama and French (1993) and Fama and errors for cross-sectional correlation and for the fact that
French (2015) methodology. As usual in the assetpricing betas are generated regressors. Following Lewellen
literature, we use the value-weighted market portfolio et al. (2010), Table 4 shows both the adjusted OLS and
minus the risk-free rate (hereafter, RMRF) as a proxy for GLS R2 statistics for all models. As the authors explain,
the wealth portfolio RW t + 1. the GLS R2 statistic constitutes a challenging check for
8 ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL.
Means SD
Means SD
1–5 22.58 14.08 14.95 11.90 10.85 47.03 27.81 36.99 26.12 22.76
6–10 11.67 10.45 14.25 13.79 9.82 26.35 23.71 26.79 17.49 16.99
11–15 9.98 7.67 14.98 11.12 17.19 13.92 14.72 27.95 23.48 22.74
16–20 16.55 15.60 18.93 24.96 32.55 23.82 25.82 33.84 39.15 56.69
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Means 9.42 10.65 11.67 12.22 14.45 16.22 17.29 19.14 24.57 40.87
SD 21.75 23.02 27.41 29.42 31.77 35.47 37.71 45.93 56.83 130.06
Panel D: Factors
Note: We compile monthly series from Thomson Reuters Datastream database, for all stocks listed in the London Stock Exchange in the
period from January 1989 to December 2018. Using this data, we form the following portfolios: (a) 25 portfolios size-BE/ME, (b) 20 asset
growth portfolios, and (c) 62 industry portfolios. In order to determine excess returns, when appropriate we use the three-month interest rate
of the Treasury Bill for the United Kingdom. All results are annual percentages.
assetpricing models, since it is high only if the model can of 83.4% and 87.6%, respectively. The best performing
explain the maximum Sharpe ratio available on the test model is the FF5 model, with an OLS R2 statistic of
assets. Conversely, the OLS R2 statistic is weakly related 95.6%. Although these results worsen for asset growth
to the factors' location in the mean–variance space. portfolios (Panel B), both the scaled CAPM and the
Regardless of the specific sample, all results shown in Fama–French models provide roughly the same OLS R2
Table 4 allow us to conclude that the four models under statistics, with values around 75%. Remarkably, the GLS
study perform quite similarly, displaying a good explana- R2 statistic falls strongly for all models, except the FF3
tory power in the majority of cases. In any case, the model, which means that RMRF is far from being mean–
Fama–French models (FF3 and FF5) provide the best variance efficient.
results, closely followed by the scaled CAPM. Although Table 4, Panel C, shows that all models perform
the classic CAPM is the worst performing model, its worse for industry portfolios, but still within acceptable
results are significantly better than those of previous liter- limits. The results are very similar for the four models
ature, performing satisfactorily for all samples. Specifi- under consideration, with OLS R2 statistics of approxi-
cally, for size-BE/ME portfolios (Table 4, Panel A), the mately 65% and the scaled CAPM providing the highest
classic CAPM provides an OLS R2 statistic of 69.1%, while GLS R2 statistic (62.3%). It is worth to note that the J-test
the scaled CAPM and the FF3 model provide R2 statistics for overidentifying restrictions rejects all models in the
ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL. 9
TABLE 3 Correlations
Panel A: 25 portfolios size-BE/ME
RMRF ΔIL
1–5 0.73 0.69 0.42 0.68 0.81 0.09 −0.17 −0.06 −0.07 0.13
6–10 0.89 0.80 0.87 0.71 0.89 0.23 0.16 0.24 0.23 0.17
11–15 0.85 0.79 0.89 0.82 0.73 0.12 0.21 0.22 −0.02 0.08
16–20 0.86 0.86 0.75 0.79 0.51 0.33 0.12 0.23 0.07 −0.29
RMRF ΔIL
1–5 0.41 0.47 0.55 0.57 0.64 −0.10 −0.02 0.01 0.04 0.07
6–10 0.69 0.72 0.75 0.80 0.93 0.11 0.15 0.22 0.28 0.48
Note: We compile monthly series from Thomson Reuters Datastream database, for all stocks
listed in the London Stock Exchange in the period from January 1989 to December 2018. Using
this data, we form the following portfolios: (a) 25 portfolios size-BE/ME, (b) 20 asset growth
portfolios, and (c) 62 industry portfolios. In order to determine excess returns, when appropriate
we use the three-month interest rate of the Treasury Bill for the United Kingdom. We use
annual series to estimate all correlations.
previous samples, while exactly the opposite is true for to be mean–variance efficient. Noteworthy, the J-test for
industry portfolios. In any case, these results must be overidentifying restrictions does not reject any model, as
interpreted with caution, since the J-test can easily reject was the case with industry portfolios.
models with low pricing errors if variances and Figures 1 and 2 show that fitted values satisfactorily
covariances in the spectral density matrix are low track the expected returns for the majority of the assets
enough. Conversely, models with high pricing errors may under consideration. Table 4 shows that in most cases
lead to false positives if they are correlated or highly the Fama–French models provide slightly lower mean
dispersed. absolute errors (MAEs) than the other models, although
The fourth sample (Table 4, Panel D), which com- the differences are more significant for size-BE/ME port-
prises all the previous data sets, provides satisfactory folios. Particularly, in this case the MAE for the scaled
results for all models, with OLS R2 statistics of 81.4% and CAPM amounts to 8.28%, while it falls to 4.21% in the
72% for the scaled CAPM and the classic CAPM, respec- FF5 model. As shown in Figure 1, the abnormal returns
tively. Once again, the FF5 model outperforms all the of size portfolios in the first quintile largely explain these
other models, with an OLS R2 statistic of 88.5%. As in the results.
previous samples, the GLS R2 statistics are significantly It should be noted that, in general, estimates for
lower, especially for the CAPM. In fact, GLS R2 statistics λ(RMRF) in both the scaled CAPM and the classic CAPM
are almost halved with respect to their OLS counterparts are statistically significant, while in Fama–French
for the scaled CAPM and the classic CAPM. On the other models, only λ(SMB) is statistically significant in the
hand, the GLS R2 statistics of the FF3 and FF5 models majority of the samples. On the other hand, Panel D in
decrease minimally, which seems to indicate that the fac- Table 4 shows that all risk prices are very close to the
tor-mimicking portfolio implicit in these models is close means of the factors (see Table 2) for models FF3 and
10
Row Model Intercept λ(RMRF) λ(SMB) λ(HML) λ(RMW) λ(CMA) λ(ΔIL) λ(RMRFΔIL MAE (%) R2 J-test
Panel A: 25 portfolios size-BE/ME
1 Scaled CAPM −.081 .226 −.126 −.018 8.28 .834 .542 120.782
(.118) (.104) (.269) (.047) (.000)
2 CAPM .063 .154 11.16 .691 .461 216.462
(.087) (.072) (.000)
3 FF3 −.090 .208 .430 .136 7.29 .876 .840 124.783
(.166) (.158) (.139) (.076) (.000)
4 FF5 −.070 .178 .398 .094 .092 −.086 4.21 .956 .775 125.077
(.169) (.168) (.126) (.063) (.134) (.099) (.000)
Panel B: 20 asset growth portfolios
5 Scaled CAPM .014 .112 −.122 −.013 2.45 .733 −.125 112.993
(.051) (.059) (.141) (.037) (.000)
6 CAPM .004 .128 2.87 .582 .082 130.313
(.050) (.060) (.000)
7 FF3 .067 .056 .342 −.003 1.91 .788 .718 148.218
(.047) (.059) (.155) (.070) (.000)
8 FF5 .058 .064 .311 −.001 .119 −.078 1.89 .778 .400 138.151
(.057) (.067) (.158) (.066) (.099) (.075) (.000)
Panel C: 62 industry portfolios
9 Scaled CAPM .045 .087 .044 .027 3.34 .625 .503 30.261
(.034) (.046) (.124) (.031) (.999)
10 CAPM .048 .083 3.34 .636 .623 37.616
(.044) (.055) (.990)
11 FF3 .041 .081 .217 .017 3.24 .667 .526 35.621
(.042) (.055) (.140) (.086) (.991)
12 FF5 .048 .076 .206 .014 .119 −.031 3.23 .666 .512 35.615
(.036) (.044) (.129) (.086) (.094) (.075) (.985)
Panel D: All portfolios
13 Scaled CAPM 5.85 .814 .411
ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL.
ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL. 11
GMM to estimate all models, assuming a spectral density matrix with zero leads and lags. We use the same spectral density matrix to run the J-test. The table displays two rows for each model,
portfolios and 62 industry portfolios. In order to determine excess returns, where appropriate we use the three-month interest rate of the Treasury Bill for the United Kingdom. Depending on
the model, we use either the market portfolio or the Fama–French factors as explanatory variables. In models 1, 5, 9 and 13, we scale the market portfolio using ΔIL as an instrument. We use
Note: We use all stocks listed in the London Stock Exchange, for the period from January 1989 to December 2018, to estimate the annual returns of 25 portfolios size-BE/ME, 20 asset growth
FF5. Although the disparities between these estimates
(1.000)
(1.000)
(1.000)
35.129
29.307
27.338
J-test are higher in the case of the scaled CAPM, in this
model, λ(RMRF) and E(RMRF) are not directly compa-
rable given the extra terms considered in expression
(13) to capture the time-varying nature of the expected
.720 .443
.846 .787
.885 .779
return of the wealth portfolio.
All the previous results test the validity of the model
R2
where the first row shows the estimates for the parameters and the second row shows the standard errors. Additionally, adjusted OLS and GLS R2 statistics are provided.
according to expression (13) or, equivalently, expression
(21). However, the economic content of the model can
MAE (%)
5.32
4.88
previous year.
−.132
(.162)
(.065)
.102
.055
(.133)
(.126)
.388
(.065)
(.075)
(.071)
.199
.156
.126
.117
−.018
−.023
−.014
(.079)
(.061)
(.063)
(.062)
CAPM
FF3
FF5
4 | C ON C L US I ON
TABLE 4
Row
15
16
F I G U R E 1 Realized excess returns versus fitted values for different sorts of portfolios. We use all stocks listed in the London Stock
Exchange, for the period from January 1989 to December 2018, to estimate the annual returns of 25 portfolios size-BE/ME, 20 asset growth
portfolios and 62 industry portfolios. In order to determine excess returns, where appropriate we use the three-month interest rate of the
Treasury Bill for the United Kingdom. Depending on the model, we use either the market portfolio or the Fama–French factors as
explanatory variables. Scaled CAPM scales the market portfolio using ΔIL as an instrument. We depict each of the 25 portfolios size-BE/ME
according to a code with two numbers, the first number being the size code (with 1 being the smallest and 5 the largest) and the second
number being the BE/ME ratio code (with 1 representing a low ratio and 5 a high ratio). Asset growth portfolios are represented by a
number that ranges from 1 to 20, where 1 corresponds to a portfolio comprising firms with the lowest asset growth, and 20 is a portfolio
comprising firms with the highest asset growth. We depict industry portfolios according to the letter “I” followed by the first two digits of the
SIC code
downsized the spreads provided by a large number of particularly the CAPM, will provide better results than
anomaly-based trading strategies and, consequently, have those achieved in previous research. Using data for the
enhanced market efficiency. In this framework, one London Stock Exchange, ranging from January 1989 to
would expect that classic assetpricing models, and more December 2018, our results show that the classic CAPM
ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL. 13
F I G U R E 2 Realized excess returns versus fitted values for all portfolios under consideration. We use all stocks listed in the London
Stock Exchange, for the period from January 1989 to December 2018, to estimate the annual returns of 25 portfolios size-BE/ME, 20 asset
growth portfolios and 62 industry portfolios. In order to determine excess returns, where appropriate we use the three-month interest rate of
the Treasury Bill for the United Kingdom. Depending on the model, we use either the market portfolio or the Fama–French factors as
explanatory variables. Scaled CAPM scales the market portfolio using ΔIL as an instrument. We depict each of the 25 portfolios size-BE/ME
according to a code with two numbers, the first number being the size code (with 1 being the smallest and 5 the largest) and the second
number being the BE/ME ratio code (with 1 representing a low ratio and 5 a high ratio). Asset growth portfolios are represented by a
number that ranges from 1 to 20, where 1 corresponds to a portfolio comprising firms with the lowest asset growth, and 20 is a portfolio
comprising firms with the highest asset growth. We depict industry portfolios according to the letter “I” followed by the first two digits of the
SIC code
Note: We use all stocks listed in the London Stock Exchange, for the period from January 1989 to December 2018, to estimate the annual
returns of 25 portfolios size-BE/ME, 20 asset growth portfolios and 62 industry portfolios. In order to determine excess returns, where appro-
priate we use the three-month interest rate of the Treasury Bill for the United Kingdom. Subsequently, we create three samples of managed
portfolios, each being determined as the product of the portfolios included in the original samples and ΔIL in the previous year. We use the
market portfolio as explanatory variable. We use GMM to estimate all models, assuming a spectral density matrix with zero leads and lags.
We use the same spectral density matrix to run the J-test. The table displays two rows for each sample, where the first row shows the esti-
mates for the parameters and the second row shows the standard errors. Additionally, adjusted OLS and GLS R2 statistics are provided.
performs satisfactorily for portfolios sorted according to a prevalence of these results for other markets and
variety of market anomalies. Furthermore, when we con- assets. Given the implications of the higher trading
trol the time-varying nature of parameters for shifts in activity underlined by recent literature on the topic,
the market illiquidity, as measured by the Amihud illi- one may expect that the higher the liquidity of the mar-
quidity measure, the CAPM provides results close to ket, the better the results provided by the CAPM. How-
those of the Fama–French models. ever, this point must be empirically evaluated, since
These results raise several questions about the the results provided by the model are highly influenced
apparent validity of the scaled CAPM. First, further by the characteristics of the market under analysis
research should be addressed in order to determine the (Mohanty, 2019).
14 ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL.
F I G U R E 3 Realized excess returns versus fitted values for different sorts of managed portfolios. We use all stocks listed in the London
Stock Exchange, for the period from January 1989 to December 2018, to estimate the annual returns of 25 portfolios size-BE/ME, 20 asset
growth portfolios and 62 industry portfolios. In order to determine excess returns, where appropriate we use the three-month interest rate of
the Treasury Bill for the United Kingdom. Subsequently, we create three samples of managed portfolios, each being determined as the
product of the portfolios included in the original samples and ΔIL in the previous year. We use the market portfolio as explanatory variable.
We depict each of the 25 managed portfolios size-BE/ME according to a code with two numbers, the first number being the size code (with
1 being the smallest and 5 the largest) and the second number being the BE/ME ratio code (with 1 representing a low ratio and 5 a high
ratio). Asset growth managed portfolios are represented by a number that ranges from 1 to 20, where 1 corresponds to a portfolio comprising
firms with the lowest asset growth, and 20 is a portfolio comprising firms with the highest asset growth. We depict managed industry
portfolios according to the letter “I” followed by the first two digits of the SIC code
Second, efforts should be made to reconcile the eventual empirical success of the CAPM for the prefer-
mechanics of the CAPM with the preferences of inves- ences described by non-separable utility functions is
tors, as defined by modern utility functions. Although the imperative.
CAPM constitutes a particular case of consumption-based Third, recent research emphasizes the importance of
assetpricing models, the assumptions that allow us to market frictions, such as those tied to labour markets
connect them are, in general, unrealistic. Preferences (Kuehn, Simutin, & Wang, 2017). Other highlights the
such as those described by quadratic utility of log utility relevance of specific market variables, such as the volatil-
do not seem to correctly capture the rationality of inves- ity risk (Campbell et al., 2018). In this framework, future
tors. Therefore, research on the implications of the research should deepen the understanding of the
ROJO-SUÁREZ ET AL. 15
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