The European Union at the Time of Enlargement

Author(s): Alain Monnier and Godfrey I. Rogers

Source: Population (English Edition, 2002-) , Mar. - Apr., 2004, Vol. 59, No. 2 (Mar. -
Apr., 2004), pp. 315-336
Published by: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/3654906

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 The European Union
at the Time of Enlargement

Alain MONNIER*

The accession of ten new countries on 1 May 2004 constitutes a cru-

cial stage in the construction of the European Union. This enlargement is
the biggest ever in absolute terms -adding 74 million inhabitants to the
population of the Union, which now totals 455 million-and involves
countries whose demographic regime differs markedly from that of the fif-
teen existing member countries. In eight of the ten new member
countries-those of central and eastern Europe-population growth is
negative or very low, and their fundamental demographic characteristics
are a reminder that these countries belong to a region of the continent
which was long regarded as "different". In some respects this is a novel
situation. Hitherto, the countries that joined the European Economic Com-
munity (EEC) and the European Union (EU) had, even before their acces-
sion, reduced the difference relative to the existing member countries. The
immediate effect of this enlargement of the Union will be to rejuvenate the
Community population but also to slow down its growth(l).

I. Demographic construction of the European Union:

from six to twenty-five

The European Union developed from an initial core of six countries,

to which a further nine countries were added over the years, plus ten more
in 2004 (see box). The population of the EU has also increased as a result
of specifically demographic change, whose magnitude has varied in diffe-
rent countries and at different times during its short history.

* Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, Paris.

Translated by Godfrey I. Rogers.
(1)This text is an updated extract from a paper given at the Chaire Quetelet (November
2003) and intended for publication in the proceedings of that symposium. We are grateful to the
organizers for granting permission to publish it in Population.

Population-E 2004, 59(2), 315-336

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 316 A. MONNIER

The construction of Europe

European Economic Community:
1957: Belgium, France, Germany (Federal Republic), Italy, Luxembourg,
Netherlands;
1973: accession of United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland and Denmark;
-1981: accession of Greece;
1986: accession of Spain and Portugal.
European Union
(created by the coming into force of the Maastricht Treaty, on 1 November 1993):
1995: accession of Austria, Finland and Sweden;
2004: accession of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

When the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957, the EEC comprised
six countries with a combined population of 167 million inhabitants. This
core of founding members has gradually been joined by a further nineteen
countries. After these successive enlargements, plus German reunification
in 1991 which raised the population of Germany from 64 to 80 million, the
European Union counted 455 million inhabitants in 2004, an increase of
288 million inhabitants since 1957.

This increase results essentially from successive enlargements

(Figure 1). The accession of the United Kingdom, coinciding with the
transition from six to nine members, had the largest impact. Its 56 million
inhabitants accounted for most of the 64 million people added to the EEC
Millions of inhabitants Ined 246 04
rnn I ,
I I I I I I I I I
JUU

Eur. 25
450

400- Eur. 15

350-
Eur. 12
*' German
reunification
300-
E ur. 10
Eur. 9
250-

200- Eur. 6

150-

1nn lv I I I
I I
I I
I I I I I I
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year

Figure 1.- Population of the European Union (millions of inhabitants)

Source: European Demographic Observatory (EDO) and national statistics.

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THE EUROPEAN UNION AT THE TIME OF ENLARGEMENT 317

in 1973, producing a 33% increase in the population of the Nine relative to

the Six (Table 1). The entry of Spain and Portugal in 1986 produced a sub-
stantially smaller relative increase (18%). Finally, the accession of ten
new members in 2004 represents the most important enlargement in abso-
lute numbers (74 million people), although in relative terms, compared
with the population of the Europe of Fifteen, it was only the second larg-
est, with an increase close to 20%. In all, if we sum the population of the
new member countries at the date of joining the European Community, the
growth in the number of inhabitants from successive enlargements (and
from German reunification) equals 235 million between 1973 and 2004,
after accession of the ten new members.

Alongside this "political" component, however, there is a properly

demographic component of growth, representing an increase of 53 milli
inhabitants. The largest share of this demographic growth originates in t
six founding states, whose total population increased by 45 million in-
habitants after 1957, partly for the obvious reason that these have bee
members of the Union longest but also because the early years of the EE
were a time when population growth was still strong. In the 16 years
between 1957 and 1973, the population of the Six increased by 25 millio
inhabitants, which is more than in the following 27 years up to 2000, wh
the increase was only 18 million. In recent years, the population of the
European Union has grown annually by around one and half million, com
pared with almost two million recorded in the Six in the early 1960s.
This population growth is based on natural increase (difference
between births and deaths) and net migration (difference between those
entering and leaving the Community's territory). In absolute numbers, na-
tural increase has never been as high as in the Six: it exceeded one million
per year until 1970, and even reached 1.4 million in 1965 (Figure 2a).
Since the mid-1970s, i.e. for nearly thirty years, natural increase has
changed little, remaining below 400,000 per year, save for a recovery
around 1990, even though over the same period the European Union ex-
panded from nine to fifteen members and from 257 to over 370 million in-
habitants. In all, cumulative natural increase since 1957 stands at
32 million.

Net migration, positive but on a downward trend from the late 1950s
to the mid-1980s, registered a strong upturn around 1990, linked notably
to the changes in eastern Europe. For recent years it stands at around a
million people per year and is currently the main factor driving the growth
of the European population.
Calculation of rates involves taking into account the changes in the
population size resulting notably from enlargements, which has the effe
of accentuating the falls and attenuating the upturns (Figure 2b). In recen
years, the annual rate of population growth has been tending towards 4 pe
1,000, whereas it went over 10 per 1,000 in the first half of the 1960s.

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 TABLE 1.- FROM THE EUROPE OF SIX TO THE EUROPE OF TWENTY-FIVE. POPULATION

1957 1973 1981 1986 1991 1995 20

Belgium, France(a), Germany(b), Italy,
Luxembourg, Netherlands
Europe of 6 167 192 197 198 20
Denmark, Ireland, UK 64 65 6
Europe of 9 257 262 264 270 2
Greece 10 10 10
Europe of 28 10 271 274 280
Spain, Portugal 49 49
Europe of 12 322 329 33
Ex-GDR (German reunification
Europe of 12 (after reunification) 345
Austria, Finland, Sweden
Europe of 15 372
Cyprus(C), Czech Rep
Latvia, Lithuania, Ma
Slovenia 7

Europe of 25 4
Population grow
- by period 25 5 2 7
- cumulative 25 30 32 39

Impact of successive enlargements 64 10 49

in % of the population at time of enlargement 33.4 3.7 17.
Cumulative impact of enlargements 64 74 123 1
Total population increase
- by period 89 15 51 23
- cumulative 89 104 155 177 2
(a) Excluding France's Overseas
(b) In the frontiers of the FRG.
(c) Excluding the Turkish part.
Source: EDO.

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THE EUROPEAN UNION AT THE TIME OF ENLARGEMENT 3

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

,, Rates per 1,000 inhabitants Ined 248 04

, 2 ......
I I I 1
Eur. 6 Eur.
Eur.9
10 Eur. 12 Eur. 15
10

6 _ Natural increase

4 Total growth

1,
1,
2 __~ ../ k / '

I -,
\ /

0
- Net migration
b
-2 I I I I I

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Figure 2.- Annual increase in

(3-year moving averag
Source: Author's calculations based on EDO data.

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320 A. MONNIER

The original Six comprised three "large" European countries

-Germany (FRG), France and Italy-which together accounted for
nearly 90% of the total Community population, plus three smaller states.
Two states each with several tens of millions of inhabitants subsequently
joined the European Union-the United Kingdom and Spain-but even
before the 2004 enlargement the EU member countries included ten states
with far smaller populations, mostly well below ten million. Enlargement
to twenty-five reinforced this characteristic, since with the exception of
Poland the new members are all "small" countries.

The relative weight of the founding countries has decreased con

derably as a consequence of the enlargements, irrespective moreover
their individual population growth (Table 2). France, for example, had
over a quarter of the population of the Six in 1957; in 2004 it accoun
for only 13% of the population of the Union of twenty-five members
though its own population had increased by a third. Germany (in th
boundaries of the FRG) represented a third of the population of the S
1957; in its current boundaries it has only 18% of the population of
Twenty-Five. In 2004, the six member countries with the largest po
tions (Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Poland) toget
had 75% of the population of the enlarged EU; nineteen countries th
represented only a quarter of this population, and eight of them each
counted for less than 1%. This imbalance in demographic weight bet
countries does not fail to create problems for decision-making proced
as can be seen in the discussions over the European Constitution.
What is the context for this demographic construction of the Eu
pean Union, and what will be the impact of the accession of the new m
bers? To answer these questions it is useful to review some key theme
European demography.

II. A demographic history

between convergence and difference

1. Two Europes separated

by a secular but variable frontier

Europe was divided in two demographically throughout the twent

century. To begin with, this division resulted from cross-national d
rences of timing in the onset of the demographic transition. Then, from t
mid-1960s to the late 1980s, the demographic division between easte
Europe and western Europe appeared as one of the manifestations of
geopolitical division of the continent between two socio-political sys
(de Beer and van Wissen, 1999).

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 TABLE 2.- DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION OF THE EUROPEAN UN

Europe Europe Europe Europe Euro

of 6 of 9 of 10 of 12 of 12
1957 1973 1981 1986 1991 19
Total population (millions) 167 257 271 3

% % % % % % % in
Belgium 5.4 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9
France 26.5 20.3 20.0 17.2 16.5
Germany (ex-FRG) 32.0 24.1 22.7 19.0
Germany (reunified) 23.2 2
Italy 29.4 21.3 20.8 17.6 16.5
Luxembourg 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0
Netherlands 6.6 5.2 5.2 4.5 4.
Denmark 100.0 2.0 1.9 1.6 1
Ireland 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0
United Kingdom 21.9 20.8 17.7 16.
Greece 100.0 3.6 3.1 3.0

Spain 100.0 12.0 11.3 10

Portugal 3.1 2.9 2.7
Austria 100.0 100.0 2
Finland 2.4 1
Sweden 1.4 2

Cyprus(b) 100.0
Czech Republic 2
Estonia 0.
Hungary 2.2
Latvia 0.5
Lithuania 0
Malta 0.1
Poland 8.4
Slovakia 1.
Slovenia 0.
Total 100.0

(a) Europe o
(b) Excludin
Source: EDO and Eurostat.

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 322 A. MONNIER

The demographic transition took place in the late nineteenth century

and the first half of the twentieth century, except in France where the fer-
tility decline had started in the late eighteenth century (Festy, 1979; Coale
and Watkins, 1986). Because the fertility and mortality declines did not
occur simultaneously in the different European countries, highly diverse
situations prevailed up to the Second World War. To schematize, the coun-
tries of northern and western Europe were the furthest on in this process,
trailed by those of southern and central Europe (Chesnais, 1986). In the
first half of the twentieth century, this temporal lag defined a geography of
European population characterized by a division between two Europes:
northern and western Europe recorded lower fertility and mortality than
southern and central Europe.
Concerning mortality and fertility, there were very clearly two
Europes at the beginning of the twentieth century (Figures 3a and 3b).
From the point of view of mortality, a group of countries where life ex-
pectancy at birth was above 50 years -northern Europe (56 years) and
western Europe (51 years)-can be contrasted with the rest of Europe,
where it was appreciably lower, with life expectancy of 42 years in south-
ern Europe and 40 years in central Europe. Between the most favoured
group (northern Europe) and the least favoured (central Europe), the gap

Age Ined 253 04 Children per woman Ined 254 04

80 5,5

a b
c75 -^ 5,0v- -
~~~~~75-~~~ ~... 5w_ Central
4,5
70-
C Central
Western, 4,0 -
^65 4,0<g, Central "t\Southern
65
Niorthern %%0 Nrhn

y^ ~,/' /t ~ 3,0 \Northern \ ^

55-,. // Southern
2,0-5
Western ^ : ^
~~~~~50 -,5

40 1,0
1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Year Year

Northern Europ
Southern Euro

Figure 3a.- Mean length of life Figure 3b.-Total fertility

(men and women)
N.B.: Because of boundary changes the groups of countries vary in territory.
Sources: Festy (1979), Monnier and Rychtarikova (1992) and EDO.

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THE EUROPEAN UNION AT THE TIME OF ENLARGEMENT 323

was of 16 years, which is considerable. But the cross-national differences

were larger still. Life expectancy in Denmark was 20 years higher than in
Greece, Portugal, and the countries of central Europe. An examination of
period fertility reinforces the image of this initial division of Europe:
around 1910, the average number of children per woman in the northern
and western countries was in the region of 3.5 whereas it exceeded 4.5 in
the rest of the continent. The difference was even larger between France
(2.4 children per woman at the start of the twentieth century) and Italy or
Spain (4.3).
The division between the two Europes became less marked in the
years after the Second World War, notably because Europe was relatively
homogeneous by the mid-1960s with respect to overall mortality, the dif-
ferences having been levelled out by the introduction of antibiotics after
the war. Between the regions defined in Figure 3 the gap in life expectancy
narrowed, and by 1970 stood at only 3 years. But this "reunification" of
Europe proved short-lived, since the countries of central Europe subse-
quently fell behind in mortality improvements, causing the gap between
this group of countries and the other European countries to widen (Mesle,
1991). This East-West divide, in the Cold War sense of the term, was also
observable in family formation behaviour. A longstanding pattern of near-
universal and early marriage characterized the East, where modern contra-
ception made slow headway faced with extensive recourse to abortion, and
fertility levels remained higher than in the West. In eastern Europe, the to-
tal fertility rate did not fall clearly below 2 children per woman until the
1990s, except in Slovenia where this had already happened. Overall, the
division of Europe has thus endured, but from the mid-1960s the frontier
between the two Europes has followed the geopolitical demarcation
between the countries with command economies and those with market
economies, and thus corresponds approximately to the famous "Ha
line" running from St. Petersburg to Trieste, which has acted as a kind
barrier to the second demographic transition (Monnier and Rychtariko
1992).
Another factor distinguishing the different countries of Europe
their migration history. Between the wars and for a long time after
Second World War, a number of countries (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Gree
Ireland, Poland, Slovakia) were sources of emigration while others
(France, Germany, Belgium, United Kingdom, in particular) were immi-
gration countries. At present, all the countries of the Fifteen are net immi-
gration countries, while those of central and eastern Europe mostly have a
negative or very small positive migration balance.
Of the ten new member countries, eight belong to the part of Europe
which in the past appeared as a "different" Europe. They still differ today
from the countries of western Europe by a demographic regime that ap-
pears all the more specific as a relatively homogeneous regime is observed
in the Fifteen.

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324 A. MONNIER

2. Old and new members:

two different demographic regimes

The fifteen countries that made up the European Union before the
last enlargement are subject to a single demographic regime, in which
three fundamental characteristics can be observed:

-a very low or even negative rate of natural increase, resulting fro

low fertility and population ageing;
-an increasing importance of migration, which in most of the coun
tries is now the main determinant of population growth;
-a high proportion of elderly people, as a consequence of the long-
term decline in fertility and, over the last twenty years, the decline in mor-
tality at old and very old ages.
In 2002, for the Fifteen as a whole, the rate of population growth w
4 per 1,000 inhabitants, which corresponds to an increase over one year
one and a half million people (Table 3). This growth rate is low, especiall
compared with that experienced during the early years of the EEC. At th
time population growth in the Six exceeded 10 per 1,000 inhabitants. T
current growth is the product of a net migration gain of 3.4 per 1,000 and a
natural increase of 0.8 per 1,000. The importance assumed by migration
now established as the principal component of population growth, is
recent: until the late 1980s, natural increase was the main factor of
growth. This attests to a change in the nature of the demographic regime
of the European Union, whose population would stagnate, or eventually
even decline if there was no immigration.
The main reason for the weakness of the natural increase is low fer-
tility: the total fertility rate for the Fifteen stood at 1.5 children per woma
in 2002. Unless this situation is reversed, the years ahead will see deat
outnumber births throughout the Union, as is already observed in som
countries. The second factor responsible for the weakness of natural i
crease is population ageing- 16% of people aged 65 and over in the
Fifteen as a whole-which tends to increase the number of deaths even
when mortality is not actually rising. This ageing is scheduled to conti
notably because of the decline in mortality at older ages. The major m
tality improvements, initially obtained by a reduction in infant morta
now come from a reduction in mortality among elderly people. These
improvements account for the high levels reached by life expectancy
birth: 75.7 years for men, 81.8 years for women, in 2002.
The member states present differences in relation to this gener
model. We must first distinguish three countries -Germany, Greece
Italy, which together account for 40% of the population of the
Fifteen-where natural increase is negative. The shortfall of births rela-
tive to deaths is offset by immigration-amply in Italy, less so in
Germany. In these countries, the proportion of people aged 65 and over is

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 TABLE 3.- POPULATION (1 JANUARY 2004) AND DEMOGRAPHI

Population at Proportion aged

1 January 2004 65 and over (avera
(estimate) Total Natura Net migration (%)
Asra81350332.increas
Austria 8.1 3.5 0.3 3.2 15.6 1
Belgium 10.4 4.5 0.5 4.0 16.9
Denmark 5.4 2.8 1.0 1.8 14.8
Finland 5.2 2.2 1.2 1.0 15.2 1
France 59.9 4.9 3.8 1.1 16.2 1
Germany 82.5 1.2 - 1.5 2.7 16.6
Greece 11.0 2.8 -0.1 2.9 17.3
Ireland 4.0 16.2 7.9 8.3 11.2
Italy 57.5 5.7 - 0.4 6.1 18.2 1
Luxembourg 0.5 9.5 3.6 5.9 14.1
Netherlands 16.3 5.4 3.7 1.7 13.7
Portugal 10.5 7.5 0.8 6.7 16.5
Spain 41.0 6.7 1.1 5.6 17.1 1
Sweden 9.0 3.6 0.1 3.5 17.2 1
United Kingdom 59.5 3.6 1.1 2.6 14
Europe of 15 380.8 4.2 0.8 3.4 16.
Cyprus(a) 0.8 11.8 3.8 8.0 11.4
Czech Republic 10.2 -0.3 - 1.5 1.2 13
Estonia 1.4 0.2 - 3.9 4.1 15.5
Hungary 10.1 - 3.2 - 3.5 0.3 15.3
Latvia 2.3 - 6.1 - 5.3 - 0.8 15.5
Lithuania 3.4 - 3.8 - 3.2 -0.6 14.2
Malta 0.4 6.1 2.0 4.1 12.6 1
Poland 38.2 - 0.5 - 0.2 - 0.3 12.5
Slovakia 5.4 0.1 - 0.1 0.2 11.5
Slovenia 2.0 0.5 - 0.6 1.1 14.5
Ten new members 74.1 - 1.0 - 1.1 0.1 1

Europe of 25 454.9 3.4 0.5 2.9 15.

Note: The results for groups of countr
(a) Excluding the Turkish part.
Sources: EDO and Eurostat.

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326 A. MONNIER

above the average for the Union, especially in Greece and Italy, while
fertility is particularly low. Other countries are in a similar position, with
a natural increase that is only just positive, barely exceeding 1 per 1,000 in
the best cases: Sweden, Austria, Belgium, Portugal, Denmark, United
Kingdom and Spain. In Portugal and Spain, however, high levels of immi-
gration are responsible for total growth rates among the highest in the
Union.

In contrast, France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Ireland (just

over 20% of the total population of the Union) show a natural increase
close to 4 per 1,000, to which is added a net migration balance of varyin
size: small for France (1.1 per 1,000, the lowest in the EU after Finland
large for Luxembourg and Ireland. All in all, France, the Netherlands, an
Luxembourg have a higher than average population growth. In this group
of countries, population ageing tends to be less marked than elsewhere
while fertility tends to be higher.
Most of the new members of the European Union are subject to a dif
ferent demographic regime (Table 3). Excepting Cyprus and Malta, whe
natural increase and the migration balance are positive, the eight countri
of central Europe are characterized firstly by very low-negative in five o
them-total growth, the only exceptions being Slovakia, Slovenia and
Estonia. There is a substantial shortfall of births to deaths, except in
Poland and Slovakia, where it is small (-0.2 and -0.1 per 1,000 respec-
tively), while the migration balance is negative in three countries (Latvia,
Lithuania and Poland) and only slightly positive in the others. Overall, for
the group of eight countries of central Europe, the average rate of natural
increase stands at -1.0 per 1,000, the average net migration rate at -0.1
per 1,000, and the total growth rate at -1.1 per 1,000. Fertility in these
countries is on average lower than in the Fifteen, with the average number
of children per woman ranging from 1.37 in Estonia to 1.17 in the Czech
Republic. In spite of the recent fertility decline in central Europe, the pro-
portion of elderly people (13.3%) is still smaller than that observed among
the Fifteen, though it is increasing. Lastly, mortality remains higher than
in western Europe, with an average life expectancy at birth of under
70 years for men and of 78 years for women (compared with 75.7 years
and 81.8 years, respectively, among the Fifteen).

3. European integration
and harmonization of demographic regimes

Is the harmonization of demographic regimes in western Europe a

consequence of European integration, with demographic convergence
going in tandem with economic convergence (Coleman, 1992; Monnier,
2000)?

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 THE EUROPEAN UNION AT THE TIME OF ENLARGEMENT 327

Concerning the factors of natural increase fertility and mortality--

the different national situations at the time of joining the Community and
their subsequent evolution can be appraised using Figure 4, which maps
total fertility and life expectancy at birth in the various countries at the

Life expectancy at birth Ined 249 04 Life expectancy at birth Ined 250 04
Or)9 , _ 9 - -

1973 1986
80- 80-

78- 78-

D o
76- 76-

0 0 0
@41) El
74
0 74-
D
ED

72 72-

70- 70

68 68
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Children per w
Child
Life expectancy at birth Ined 251 04 Life expecta
Ined 252 04
92 9 82

1995 2004
80 80-
A
A
78 78--
-. e ?
I*AonL
76 76- *
*
74
74- *
* Europe-Six
I Accession in 1973
72 72-
Accession in 1986

70- 70 -
A Accession in 1995
70

* Accession in 2004

68 1u
I,'41I'I
2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Children per w
Child

AccessionAccession
in 1973:
Accession in 1986:
Accession

Figure 4.-Tot
at successiv
Source: EDO.

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328 A. MONNIER

key dates in European construction. Three remarks are in order. First,

between 1973 and 1995, the differences between old and new members are
not very large and the scatters of points are relatively compact. Thereafter,
these configurations tend to draw closer together (this is particularly clear
between 1973 and 1986) at the same time as they undergo a coordinated
shift, reflecting the common demographic trends (reduction of mortality
and decline in fertility) experienced by most of the countries involved.
Finally, the distinctive character of the last enlargement is particularly
clear on the diagram for the early-2000s, which can safely be taken to pre-
figure the situation in 2004. None of the previous enlargements had in-
volved countries where fertility and, especially, mortality levels differed
so much from those in existing member countries.
The convergence between countries observed over recent decades
has, very broadly, been oriented, in that the fertility and mortality trends
were not independent of the starting points. The countries where mortality
was higher than average have tended to move towards conformity with the
more favoured countries (and not vice versa); likewise, in the countries
where fertility was highest it has fallen, whereas recoveries in fertility
have remained the exception (the case of Sweden). Thus it appears parti-
cularly appropriate to study this movement of convergence for the coun-
tries where fertility (measured by the total fertility rate) and mortality
(measured by the mean length of life or by the infant mortality rate, more
widely available) were the highest in the 1950s and 1960s. Of the fifteen
countries that joined the European Union before 2004, three were selected
for their high fertility (Spain, Ireland and Portugal) and six for their par-
ticularly high mortality(2) (Austria, Spain, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg and
Portugal).
To determine whether fertility and mortality in these countries have
converged on the average for member countries before or after their acces-
sion, we have calculated the differences between each annual indicator
and the average indicator for the existing members of the EEC and later of
the EU, along a time scale on which zero corresponds to the date of acces-
sion (1973, 1981, 1986 or 1995 depending on the countries).
The results of these calculations suggests that, in most of the cases
examined, the convergence of fertility or mortality occurred essentially
before entry into the European Community. This is particularly clear for
fertility in Portugal and Spain (Figure 5a): for these two countries, which
joined the EEC in 1986, the distance between the total fertility rate and the
average for the member countries began to narrow ten years before their
entry. On the other hand, fertility in Ireland did not start to decline until
after the country had joined the EEC, in 1973, but Figure 5b, where the
fertility rates are presented by calendar year, shows the close parallelism
between the falls in period fertility in all three countries. The conclusion

(2) These countries are characterized by a mean length of life less than 70 years or a rate of
infant mortality over 30 per 1,000 during the 1960s.

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 THE EUROPEAN UNION AT THE TIME OF ENLARGEMENT 329

suggested by these observations is thus that in the three countries where

fertility was highest in the 1950s and 1960s, its evolution depends less on
the date of entry into the Community "mould" than on the period.

Difference from average Ined 256 04

9 n I I I I I I I

I I I I I I
.,.v

1.5-

Ireland
1.0-

.. Portugal
0.5 a\ - \ -,

0.0
Spain
I I-

-u J.J
nl I II I
I I
I I
I I
I I I I i I I
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of years be

Figure 5a.- Difference between

fertility for the European Uni
(number of children p

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year

Figure 5b.- Total fertility (number of children per woman)

Sources: Developed countries database (http://www.ined.fr/population in figures/databases) and EDO.

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 o
330 A. MONNIER

In the countries chosen to appraise the convergence of mortality

(Figures 6a and 6b), the closing of the gap between infant mortality rate
and the average rate for the member countries began even earlier. In Spa

-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Number of years before or aft

Figure 6a.- Difference between the infant m

and the average rate for the European Unio
or after membership

Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) Ined 259 04

1 .nn I I I . I I I
I I I I I I I I I I

80

60

- .Italy

40 - -s R\ \ -

20-
- _
Spain I II I
u
r/ I I I ] I I ] I I I

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year

Figure 6b.- Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)

Sources: Developed countries database (http://www.ined.fr/population in figures/databases) and EDO.

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 THE EUROPEAN UNION AT THE TIME OF ENLARGEMENT 331

and in Austria, this average level was reached approximately five years be-
fore entry. The infant mortality rate for Portugal still lagged slightly, by
five points, when the country joined, but spectacular improvement had
been achieved prior to that. Italy, like Ireland in respect of fertility, regis-
tered a decline in infant mortality after joining the Common Market, but,
as in the example above, the parallelism between the evolution of infant
mortality in Italy and that in Spain (entry in 1986) or in Austria (entry in
1995) confirms that there is no obvious, direct link between European in-
tegration and demographic convergence.
Turning lastly to migration, the situation of former emigration coun-
tries that have become ones of immigration warrants attention. Figure 7
displays the net migration rates for Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece by
the length of time between the year of entry and the year of observation,
and confirms that in the last three countries the reversal of migration flows
began before entry. Here again Italy seems to be a special case, but an exa-
mination of net migration rates by calendar year shows that Italy acquired
a positive migration balance at around the same time as the other coun-
tries, that is, in the 1990s.

Net migration rate (per 1,000) Ined 260 04

8II I I I I/ [ Italy

-12- \ Portugal

16 IJ
-16 I I I I I I
'~ x,1$
vPi)
x * 0 So
x,0 0 ~
? ,,
0A<3 2 ( q?
q,? S 9P '\
, , '9 9 ?
P o? '
I b^ ~ ' r 'f N - ? c
Number of years be

Figure 7.- Net migration ra

before or after member
Sources: Developed countries databas

All in all, the countries

rences relative to the other
crease over time, either

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332 A. MONNIER

afterwards, but, whatever the case, this movement of convergence seems

more closely linked to general trends than to their entry into the Commu-
nity. Accession to the European Union in fact assumes an economic and
social development that goes in tandem with low levels of fertility and
mortality.

4. Complementary population pyramids

The population pyramids of the twenty-five member countries of the

European Union give an image of the long-term history of these coun-
tries(3). The mark left by the First World War is beginning to fade, though
the shortfall of births caused by the Second World War remains clearly
visible for the countries where the number of births declined sharply dur-
ing the conflict. For the second half of the twentieth century, birth rate
changes are responsible for a series of bulges and depressions in the pyra-
mids, but these variations reflect national circumstances that do not have
the Europe-wide dimension of the two world wars. These variations cancel
out and are not visible in the pyramid for the EU as a whole (Figure 8),
which is marked chiefly by a major and generalized phenomenon: the
sharp fall in fertility observed from the 1960s, at varying dates depending
on the country.

Year of birth Age Year of birth

1902 100 1902

1912 90 1912

1922 _ 80 , - 1922
1932 70 1932

1942 60 1942

1952 50 1952

1962 40 1962

1972 30 1972

1982 20 1982

1992 10 1992

2002 l 1 l 1 0 I I I Ined 255 04 2002

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Percentage of population Percentage of population

Figure 8.- Population pyramid of the Eu

Source: EDO.

(3) The population pyramids for each of the 25 member countries of the European Union
can be consulted in issue 398 (February 2004) of Population & Societies available on-line on th
INED web site (http://www.ined.fr/publications/pop_et_soc).

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THE EUROPEAN UNION AT THE TIME OF ENLARGEMENT 333

III. The European Union in the global context

In 2000, the twenty-five countries that currently make up the Euro-

pean Union represented around 7.5% of the world population estimated at
over 6 billion, but their proportion varies widely by age group: 4% of
young people under age 20, 16% of persons aged 60 and over (Table 4).
One in seven of the world's elderly people thus live in the EU, which
counts slightly more elderly people than the Americas, and more than
twice the number in Africa. This high proportion of elderly people ex-
plains why the mortality rate in the European Union (9.8 deaths per 1,000
inhabitants) is higher than in Asia and one point higher than the world ave-
rage, although the health situation of the Union is the most favourable, at
the scale of such a large population. The situation of the European Union
relative to that of the other continents can also be appraised by comparing
levels of natural increase: in the world, the surplus of births over deaths in
2000 was in the region of 80 million (132 million births less 53 million
deaths). The EU accounts for only 0.4 million of this total. In relative
terms, the rate of natural increase for the world stands at 13 per 1,000,
which is sixteen times that of the EU!

TABLE 4.- THE EUROPE OF FIFTEEN IN THE WORLD IN 2000 (POPULATIONS IN MILLIONS)

Total Total Population aged: Births Deaths

population 0-20 years 20-59 60years Number Per 000 Number r 000
years and over inhab. inhab.
Europe 728.0 177.7 402.9 147.4 7.3 10.1 8.3 11.4
of which: 25 current members of the Union
453.1 105.9 251.6 95.6 4.8 10.6 4.4 9.8
Africa 795.7 427.8 327.9 40.1 29.0 36.5 10.5 13.2
Americas 836.1 308.9 434.6 92.7 15.9 19.1 5.8 7.0
Asia 3,679.7 1,459.7 1,897.8 322.2 79.2 21.6 28.1 7.7
Oceania 31.0 10.5 16.4 4.1 0.5 16.4 0.2 6.6
World 6,070.6 2,384.5 3,079.7 606.4 132.0 21.8 53.0 8.8
Sources: United Nations and national statistics.

The twenty-five countries of the European Union together contained

in 2000 slightly more than 60% of the population of continental Europe,
estimated at 728 million and which included, in addition to the Russian
Federation, the European states issued from the collapse of the Soviet
Union (the three Baltic States-Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania-and Belarus,
Ukraine and Moldova).
The last ten years have seen the establishment of a new balance of
population growth in Europe. Since the 1990s, the population has been
falling in central Europe, eastern Europe and Russia, primarily through an
increased deficit of births to deaths and through emigration. In 2000, the
natural decrease reached 0.9 million in Russia, causing this vast country's
population to fall by 0.7 million inhabitants, since the positive migration

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334 A. MONNIER

balance (0.2 million) far from compensated the birth deficit. In this con-
text a growth differential has developed, with a growth rate for Russia of
-5.1 per 1,000, as against +3.2 per 1,000 for the Twenty-Five (Table 5).

TABLE 5.- POPULATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, RUSSIA, UNITED STATES

AND JAPAN, AROUND 2000

Population Growth rates (per 1,000 inhabitants)

(in millions) Natural Net migration Total
Europe of 25 453.0 0.7 2.5 3.2
Russia 145.0 - 6.6 1.5 - 5.1
United States 277.0 6.0 3.1 9.1
Japan 126.8 1.8 0.2 2.0
Sources: United Nations and national statistics.

Around 2000, the population of the twenty-five countries that today

make up the European Union represented three and a half times the popu-
lation of Japan, and one and half times that of the United States. Yet the
demographic dynamism of the EU appears modest compared with that of
the latter country, where the growth rate reached 9.1 per 1,000 due to a
natural increase 8.5 times that in the Union (rates of 6 per 1,000 and 0.7
per 1,000, respectively). It can be noted that while growth from migration
is almost as high in the EU as in the United States (2.5 per 1,000 and 3.1
per 1,000, respectively), it accounts for only one third of total growth in
the latter as against three quarters in the former. Relative to Japan, popula-
tion growth is higher in the EU because of a stronger migration growth
which compensates for a lower natural increase.

Overview

The enlargement of the European Union in 2004 is the most impor-

tant in terms of absolute numbers since the setting up of the EEC. Most of
all, however, it involves countries whose demography differs in major res-
pects from that of the western European countries which composed the
Europe of Fifteen. The origins of these differences lie in the history of
central and eastern Europe over recent decades, and in particular the so-
cial, political and economic upheaval that marked the 1990s. Within the
European Union two groups of countries can now be identified that are
contrasted in terms of mortality (higher in the new continental member
countries) and fertility (lower in the same countries), but also as regards
their migration regimes, the old members all being immigration countries
while the new members have migration balances that are negative or only
slightly positive (excepting Cyprus and Malta).
This enlargement is likely to have major demographic implications,
whether for the new members alone or for all the countries of the Union.
Three subjects in particular will interest observers in the years to com

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THE EUROPEAN UNION AT THE TIME OF ENLARGEMENT 335

First, attention must be given to mortality trends in the new members from
central and eastern Europe, all of which are lagging seriously behind those
in the Europe of Fifteen. Success in closing this gap will be seen as the
sign of an improvement in the health situation and more generally in the
living conditions of the population. The second focus of attention will be
fertility, currently very low in these same countries, to see whether im-
proving economic and social conditions and a less uncertain future cause
it to recover, to remain the same or indeed to decline still further. It is
worth recalling that entry into the EU of the southern European countries
(Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal) was not accompanied in their case by a
recovery in fertility. Lastly, migration is an issue for the entire Union.
When the freedom to move and settle in all the states of the Union is even-
tually accorded to residents of the new member states, will it result in
large movements of population towards the wealthiest western countries,
foremost among them Germany? As for the eastward shift of the frontie
of the European Union, it inevitably places a heavy responsibility on th
countries-the Baltic States, Poland and Slovakia-who have the task of
policing the Union's eastern borders.

REFERENCES

CHESNAIS Jean-Claude, 1986, La transition demographique. Etapes, formes, imp

miques, Paris, INED/PUF (Travaux et documents, Cahier n? 113), 582 p.
COALE Ansley J., WATKINS Susan C. (eds), 1986, The Decline of Fertility in Eur
NJ, Princeton University Press, 484 p.
COLEMAN David, 1992, "European demographic systems of the future: conver
sity?", in Le capital humain europeen a I'aube du 21e siecle, Luxembour
pp. 137-181.
DE BEER Joop, VAN WISSEN Leo, 1999, Europe: One Continent, Different World
narios for the 21st Century, Dordrecht/Boston, Kluwer Academic Publishe
Studies of Population), 189 p.
FESTY Patrick, 1979, Lafecondite des pays occidentaux de 1870 a 1970, Paris,
vaux et documents, Cahier n? 85), 392 p.
MESLE France, 1991, "La mortalitd dans les pays d'Europe de l'Est", Population
650.
MONNIER Alain, 2000, "La convergence: realit6 et limites d'une notion', in Regimes demo-
graphiques et territoires : lesfrontieres en question, Paris, AIDELF, pp. 629-636.
MONNIER Alain, RYCHTARIKOVA Jitka, 1992, "The division of Europe into East and West", Popu-
lation: An English Selection, vol. 4, pp. 129-159.

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336

MONNIER Alain.- The European Union at the Time of Enlargement

The accession of ten new members on 1 May 2004 produced an increase of 74 million
in the population of the European Union, which now counts 455 million inhabitants. The Eu-
rope of Six had 167 million inhabitants in 1957. Since that date, the population of the Com-
munity has thus increased by 288 million, as a result of successive enlargements (235 million)
and of natural increase and migration (53 million). In recent years, the population growth of
the Europe of Fifteen has come mainly from the balance of migration (roughly 1 million peo-
ple a year), the natural increase being in the region of 0.4 million.
Among the new members, the eight countries of central Europe are characterized by a
negative or at most very low population growth, the result of fertility that is lower than in the
countries of the Europe of Fifteen and of mortality that is higher. Because of past trends, de-
mographic ageing is slightly less marked in these countries than in the Fifteen.
The European Union of Twenty-Five represents around 7.5% of the world population
(but 16% of the over-60s) and slightly more than 60% of the population of continental Europe.
It exhibits a large differential in population growth relative to the United States (3.2 per 1,000
and 9.1 per 1,000, respectively).

MONNIER Alain.- L'Union europ6enne a l'heure de l'6largissement

L'adh6sion de dix nouveaux membres, le ler mai 2004, a entrain6 une augmentation de
74 millions de la population de l'Union europeenne, qui atteint desormais 455 millions d'habi-
tants. L'Europe des Six comptait 167 millions d'habitants en 1957. Depuis cette date, la popu-
lation communautaire a done augmente de 288 millions, en raison des elargissements successifs
(235 millions) et du mouvement naturel et migratoire de la population (53 millions). Au cours
des ann6es r6centes, la croissance d6mographique de l'Europe des Quinze a repose avant tout
sur le solde migratoire (environ 1 million de personnes par an), I'accroissement naturel 6tant de
l'ordre de 0,4 million.
Parmi les nouveaux accedants, les huit pays d'Europe centrale se caracterisent par une
croissance d6mographique n6gative ou au mieux tres faible, r6sultant d'une f6condit6 inf6rieure
a celle des pays de 1'Europe des Quinze et d'une mortalite plus forte. Compte tenu des tendances
passees, le vieillissement d6mographique de ces pays est un peu moins accentu6 que parmi les
Quinze.
L'Union europ6enne a 25 represente environ 7,5 % de la population mondiale (mais
16 % au-dela de 60 ans) et un peu plus de 60 % de la population du continent europeen. Elle
accuse un diff6rentiel de croissance demographique important par rapport aux Etats-Unis (res-
pectivement 3,2 %c et 9,1 %0).

MONNIER Alain.- La Uni6n Europea a la hora de la ampliaci6n

La adhesi6n de diez nuevos miembros el I? de mayo 2004 a provocado un aumento de
74 millones de habitantes en la poblaci6n de la Union Europea, que alcanza ahora 455 millones.
La Europa de los Seis contaba con 167 millones de habitantes en 1957. Desde esa fecha, la po-
blaci6n comunitaria ha aumentado pues de 288 millones, gracias a las ampliaciones sucesivas
(235 millones) y al movimiento natural y migratorio de la poblaci6n (53 millones) Durante los
anos recientes, el crecimiento demogrdfico de la Europa de los Quince ha reposado ante todo
sobre el saldo migratorio (alrededor de 1 millon de personas por ano), el crecimiento natural
siendo de 0,4 millones por afio aproximadamente.
Entre los nuevos miembros, los ocho paises de Europa central se caracterizan por un cre-
cimiento demografico negativo o, en el mejor de los casos, muy debil, resultando de una fecun-
didad inferior a la de los paises de la Europa de los Quince y de una mortalidad mas elevada.
Tenida cuenta de las tendencias en el pasado, el envejecimiento demografico de esos paises es
menos acentuado que el de los Quince.
La nueva Uni6n Europea representa alrededor de 7,5% de la poblaci6n mundial (16% de
la poblaci6n de los mas de 60 afos) y un poco menos de 60% de la poblaci6n del continente
europeo. Su crecimiento demografico (3,2 p. 1000) es casi tres veces inferior al de Estados
Unidos (9,1 p. 1000).

Alain MONNIER, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 133 bd Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20,
Tel: 33 (0)1 56 06 21 18, Fax: 33 (0)1 56 06 21 99, e-mail: monnier@ined.fr

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