CWL - Monthly income for the preceding 24 months

New Product Division

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Income - 1 year 42000 40000 48000 52000 46000 55000 42000 36000

Estimation 41000 60000

Last observation 43000
Arithmetic mean 44666.67 55000

50000

45000

40000

35000

30000
n b r r y n l g p t v c n b r r y n l g p t v
Ja Fe Ma Ap Ma Ju Ju Au Se Oc No De Ja Fe Ma Ap Ma Ju Ju Au Se Oc No D
----- Income ----- Arithmetic mean
 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
40000 47000 45000 43000 44000 40000 48000 50000 44000 38000

ar pr ay n ul g p ct v ec
M A M Ju J Au Se O No D
mean
 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
36000 30000 38000 41000 39000 40000
CWL - Monthly income for the preceding 24 months
Short Courses Division
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Income - 1 year 32000 36000 34000 35500 38000 37500 42000 36000

3 month moving avg 34000 35166.7 35833.33 37000 39166.67 38500

5 month moving avg 35100 36200 37400 37800

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
----- Income ----- 3 month moving avg ----- 5 month moving avg
 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
40000 41000 39000 40000 42000 40000 43000 45500 44000 42000

39333.33 39000 40000 40000

38700 39300 39600 39200
 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
46000 42000 45000 46000 48000 47000
CWL - Monthly income for the preceding 24 months
Short Courses Division
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Income - 1 year 32000 36000 34000 35500 38000 37500 42000

3 month moving avg 34000 35166.7 35833.33 37000 39166.67

3 month weighted moving average 34200 35150 36450 37250 39850

Proportional weights 0.2 0.3 0.5

 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
36000 4000 41000 39000 40000 40000 40000 43000 42000 43000

38500 39333.33 39000 40000 40000

38100 39200 39700 39800 39900
 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
45000 46000 48000 47000 45000 44000 45000 41000 39000 43000
 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
42000 43000 46000 47000 49000 48000 46000 45000 45000
CWL - Monthly Income for the preceding 12 months
Short Courses Division
Jan Feb
Income - 1 year 32000 36000

3 month moving avg

3 month weighted moving average

Propotional weights 0.2 0.3

 Mar Apr
34000 35500

=AVERAGE(B4:D4) =AVERAGE(C4:E4)
=B4*SBS9+C4*SCS9+D4*SDS9 =C4*SBS9+D4*SCS9+E4*SDS9

0.5
CWL - Monthly income for the preceding 12 months
Short Courses Division
Jan Feb Mar Apr
Income - 1 year 32000 36000 34000 35500

Trend adjusted moving average 40000 32000 37000

 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
36000 38500 42000 43000 40000 41500 42200 40000

36500 41000 45500 44000 37000 43000 42900 37800

Weighted Moving Average with adaptive filtering

Historic quarterly sales data

QUARTER 1 2
ACTUAL SALES 12567 13456
OPEN WEIGHTS 0.2 0.2

FORECAST FOR 20XX

QUARTER 5 8
FORECAST 11505 11789
ACTUAL SALES 11670 0

ADAPTIVE FILTERING - RECALCULATION OF NEW WEIGHTS

Adjusted weights for Qrt 6 forecast 0.21 0.21

Adjusted weights for Qrt 7 forecast 0 0
Adjusted weights for Qrt 8 forecast 0 0
Historic quarterly sales data
3 4
9504 11000
0.2 0.4

7 8
0 0
0 0

0.21 0.41
0 0
0 0
Simple Exponential Smoothing

Historic monthly income data

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL
Income - 1 year 114 121 119 120 115 125 119
E-S Coefficient 0.4
Forecast 114 117 118 119 117 120 120

130 130

125 125

120 120

115 115

110 110

105 105
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB M
 AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
120 128 119 122 118

120 123 121 122 120

130

125

120

115

110

105
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
 A B C D
1 CWL Emails sent monthly vs income
No.
2 Month Income
emails
3 Jan 96 15000
4 Feb 106 15670
5 Mar 198 25300
6 Apr 195 21100
7 May 135 18600
8 Jun 44 12000
9 Jul 120 17230
10 Aug 171 20700
11 Sep 180 20990
12 Oct 50 12400
13 Nov 75 13100
14 Dec 21 10200
15 Total 1391 202290
 A B C D
1 CWL Emails sent monthly vs income
No.
2 Month Income
emails
3 Dec 21 10200
4 Jun 44 12000
5 Oct 50 12400
6 Nov 75 13100
7 Jan 96 15000
8 Feb 106 15670
9 Jul 120 17230
10 May 135 18600
11 Aug 171 20700
12 Sep 180 20990
13 Apr 195 21100
14 Mar 198 25300
15 Total 1391 202290
 Aircraft sales
9
30000 8
7
25000

Aircraft sales
6
20000 5
4
15000 3
10000 2
1
5000 0
0 1 2 3 4
R

Gambar 5.3
 Aircraft sales in relation to rainfall 16000
9
15000
8 D2
D1
7 14000
6 64

Financial P lanning Using Excel

Deposits
5 13000
4
12000
3
2 11000
1
0 10000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10.00% 10.50% 11.00% 11
Rainfall Interest rat

Gambar 5.4 Gambar 5.5

 D1 D2

D3

10.50% 11.00% 11.50% 12.00% 12.50%

Interest rate

Gambar 5.5
 16000

Financial P lanning Using Excel

15000

14000

Deposits
13000

12000

11000

10000
1 0.00 % 10
66
 16000
Financial P lanning Using Excel

15000

14000
Deposits

13000

12000

11000

10000
1 0.00 % 10 .50 % 11 .00 % 11 .50 % 12 .00 % 12 .5 0 %
66 Interest rate

Deposits Forecast
 1600 0 69
1500 0 y = 130181x – 1250

1400 0

Depo sits
1300 0
1200 0
1100 0
1000 0
10 .0 0% 10.50 % 11.00 % 11 .5 0% 12.00 % 12.50 %
Interest rate

Deposits Linear (deposits)

Figure 5.11 T ren dlin e inse rte d onto an Excel cha rt

 69
130181x – 1250

2.00 % 12.50 %
 20000
18000
16000

Depo sit s
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
10.00 % 10

Figure 5.13 R egressio

 20000
18000
16000
Depo sit s

14000

Financial Planning Using Excel

12000
10000
8000
6000
10.00 % 10.50 % 11.00 % 11.50 % 12.00% 12.50 %
Interest rate
Deposits Forecast Lower limit Upper limit
71
Figure 5.13 R egression line w ith upper and low e r confidence lim its