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CBRE - Singapore Market Outlook Q2 2022
CBRE - Singapore Market Outlook Q2 2022
‒ Residential: Following the lull period in Q1 2022, sales volumes in Q2 2022 saw an uptick as Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2022 Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2022
developers rolled out more new homes. Q2 2022 preliminary figures show that 2,370 new All capital values and yields stated as prime. Rents are quoted on a $ * 30-year prime logistics data provided.
homes were sold, picking up from 1,825 units sold in Q1 2022. psf per month basis and capital values on a $ psf basis. ** Investment volumes are preliminary. All transactions above S$10
* Yield calculation methodology revised based on an average of mil
‒ Industrial: Strong demand was capped by the lack of available space, particularly in the rolling eight quarter rents.
prime logistics segment.
‒ Investment: Preliminary real estate investment volumes in Singapore for Q2 2022 declined
11.3% q-o-q to $9.024 bn. This brought H1 2022 investment volumes to $19.193 bn, a 56.4%
increase y-o-y.
1 1
Transition to Vaccinated Travel Framework Removal of work permit requirement
Vaccinated Travel Framework replaced VTL Fully-vaccinated non-Malaysian Work Permit
scheme Holders no longer required to apply for entry
19 approvals to enter Singapore
All nightlife businesses allowed to fully
All fully vaccinated travellers, except those from
MOH’s restricted category, allowed to enter
reopen
Singapore quarantine-free Nightlife establishments allowed to fully reopen
with Safe Management Measures (SMMs) in place
Removal of quotas on number of daily arrivals
Jun 2022
Patrons required to produce a negative ART
before entry to nightlife establishments where
dancing is present 14
Further easing of SMMs
Capacity limit removed for nightlife
22 establishments with dancing among patrons.
Stepdown of DORSCON level Patrons no longer needed a negative ART
Step down of the Disease Outbreak Response result to enter the venues
System Condition (DORSCON) framework from
Orange to Yellow
Source: CBRE Research, Various news articles, MOH, Apr to Jul 2022
The positive momentum from 2021 and Q1 2022 carried over to Q2 2022 as Singapore eased 1.1
workplace restrictions, announcing that 100% of employees may return to the office from 26 Apr 6%
2022. In Q2 2022, AXA Tower commenced demolition works and was removed from CBRE 0.7
Research’s office stock. Excluding the effect of AXA Tower’s removal, islandwide net absorption 4%
remained positive for the quarter. 0.3
2%
Fastest pace of rental increase since Q2 2021 -0.1
-0.5 0%
Vacancies in Core CBD (Grade A) submarket further tightened to 4.4%. This has emboldened
Q2 20
Q2 21
Q2 22
Q3 20
Q3 21
Q2 17
Q2 18
Q2 19
Q1 20
Q4 20
Q3 17
Q1 21
Q4 21
Q1 22
Q3 18
Q3 19
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
Q4 19
landlords to raise their rental expectations. Thus, the pace for rental growth in Core CBD (Grade
A) accelerated from 1.4% q-o-q in Q1 2022 to 3.2% q-o-q in Q2 2022. This was also the fastest
pace of increase since the recovery in Q2 2021. In addition, the confidence spilt over to other Net Supply Net Absorption Vacancy rate (RHA)
submarkets, resulting in a broad-based rental recovery islandwide. Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2022
Prospects still positive despite near term volatility Core CBD 6.7% 6.2% 6.4% Core CBD $8.15 3.8% 5.2%
(Grade B)
Fringe CBD 6.7% 6.2% 6.8%
The recent tech market volatility may have raised concerns of demand cooling for office space in Islandwide $7.55 3.4% 5.6%
Singapore, but CBRE Research expects well established and financially-sound tech companies to Decentralised 4.9% 4.5% 4.3% (Grade B)
continue to grow their footprint in Singapore as their long-term prospects remain intact. Core Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2022
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2022
CBD (Grade A) rents have grown by 4.6% year-to-date. With a stable domestic economic outlook,
alongside a back-to-office recovery and limited new supply pipeline, CBRE Research expects
Core CBD (Grade A) office rents to grow 8.3% for the full year, compared to 3.8% for 2021.
14%
Occupier interest for business parks was relatively steady, though overall leasing demand was 0.4
capped by tight occupancies in the City Fringe submarket. This led islandwide net absorption to 13%
increase slightly by 13,178 sq. ft. in Q2 2022. The vacancy rate for the City Fringe submarket 0.2 13%
declined for the fourth consecutive quarter to 4.4% in Q2 2022, from 4.7% in Q1 2022 while that
12%
for Rest of Island submarket inched up to 18.2%. This caused a further widening of performance 0.0
between the two submarkets. CBRE Research also observed that some developments in the 12%
Rest of Island submarket were undergoing AEIs to improve occupancies.
-0.2 11%
Q2 20
Q2 21
Q2 22
Q3 20
Q3 21
Q2 17
Q2 18
Q2 19
Q1 20
Q4 20
Q1 21
Q4 21
Q1 22
Q3 17
Q3 18
Q3 19
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
Q4 19
Steady interest from pharmaceutical and biomedical companies
Net Supply Net Absorption Vacancy Rate (%)
Similar to previous quarters, there was steady leasing interest from pharmaceutical and
biomedical companies which were actively seeking to expand their R&D and lab facilities. It was Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2022
noted that their preference was mainly confined within the City Fringe. Less downsizing activity
was seen for renewals among the banking sector, which is a positive sign for the overall FIGURE 3: Business Park Vacancy TABLE 4: Singapore Business Park Rents
business park sentiment.
Vacancy
Q2 22 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
Widening rental gap between City Fringe and Rest of Island 20%
City Fringe $6.00 0.8% 3.4%
Continued take-up in the City Fringe submarket led rents to increase for the fifth consecutive 16%
Rest of Island $3.65 0.0% 0.0%
quarter by 0.8% q-o-q to $6.00 psf/month. For the Rest of Island submarket, rental performance 12%
was more muted with rents maintaining at $3.65 psf/month as landlords continued to prioritise TABLE 5: Known Business Park Pipeline (sq. ft.)
8%
raising occupancy.
4% City Fringe Rest of Island
High supply concentration risk in Rest of Island
0% 2022 0.00 mil 1.46 mil
Q2 20
Q2 22
Q3 20
Q2 21
Q3 21
Q2 17
Q2 18
Q2 19
Q1 20
Q4 20
Q1 21
Q4 21
Q1 22
Q3 17
Q3 18
Q3 19
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
Q4 19
The average annual pipeline supply over the next three years will be at a historical high at 1.53 2023 0.30 mil 0.43 mil
mil sq. ft. per annum, with higher concentration risk in the Rest of Island submarket. This could
potentially exert more pressure on Rest of Island rents. On the other hand, rents in City Fringe Rest of Island City Fringe
2024 0.00 mil 2.41 mil
are expected to remain resilient given the lack of new options. Looking further ahead, business
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2022 Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2022
parks could benefit from the strong office rental recovery, where the widening rental gap
between office and business parks could lend additional support to the latter.
-50% 0.0
Stable leasing demand, reconfiguration of trade mix
Q2 20
Q2 21
Q3 20
Q3 21
Q2 17
Q2 18
Q2 19
Q1 20
Q4 20
Q1 21
Q4 21
Q1 22
Q3 17
Q3 18
Q3 19
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
Q4 19
Leasing activity remained stable in Q2 2022. More pop-up stores opened in the quarter, Visitor Arrivals (RHA) Change in Retail Sales Index in Chained Volume Terms (excludes car sales)
featuring collaborations and experiential concepts. F&B operators continued to drive demand,
while supermarkets and gyms expanded their presence. However, due to changing consumer Source: STB, MTI, CBRE Research, Q2 2022
preferences and competition, there were some notable closures in Q2 2022, including Vhive
(furniture) and consolidations of Cathay Cineplex (entertainment) and Kinokuniya (books).
TABLE 6: Prime Retail Rents TABLE 7: Estimated Gross New Supply
Islandwide retail rents stabilised for the third consecutive quarter
Q2 22 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Estimated NLA (sq. ft.)
Although borders have reopened and visitor arrivals have seen a sharp increase, retailers are
Islandwide $24.75 0.0% -0.6% Q3 – Q4 2022 0.34 mil
cautiously optimistic about an eventual return of tourist spending in view of uncertain economic
growth and rising inflation. As such, prime retail rents for Orchard Road, City Hall/Marina Centre Orchard Road $34.20 0.0% -1.0% 2023 0.46 mil
and Fringe areas remained stable in Q2 2022. Meanwhile, the suburban market continued to
register healthy reversionary rents as availability remains extremely limited. Suburban $30.20 0.2% 1.3% 2024 0.41 mil
While domestic and travel restrictions have eased and shopper traffic has improved, retailers
are now facing manpower shortage as well as rising input costs, putting a lid to landlords’
capacity to raise rents in the near term. Nonetheless, with below-historical average new retail
supply in the next few years, CBRE Research expects a more meaningful retail rent recovery
after H2 2022.
52 10%
Manufacturing output increased by 13.8% y-o-y in May 2022, on the back of increased
50 0%
semiconductor production. This comes from the strong demand from 5G markets and data
centres. Despite some volatility, overall manufacturing sentiment held up, as evident from 48 -10%
positive performance in the NODX and SIPMM’s PMI indicators. 46 -20%
Aug-20
Nov-20
Aug-21
Nov-21
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Feb-22
May-20
May-21
May-22
In light of the current supply chain disruption, increased freight cost and inflationary pressures,
it was observed that demand related to occupiers’ “just-in-case” inventory has increased and PMI-Contract PMI-Expand Mfg Output NODX
firms were inclined to bring in a higher volume of manufacturing inputs now rather than later.
However, the strong demand was capped by the lack of available space, particularly for the Source: Singstat, SIPMM, CBRE Research, Q2 2022
prime logistics segment. Leasing demand has benefitted from the increase in inventory for food
staples, 3PLs, semiconductor manufacturers and electronics companies. The pharmaceutical TABLE 8: Industrial Rents TABLE 9: Significant Future Developments
and biomedical sectors also remained resilient.
Est. GFA
Prime logistics registered the highest rental growth Q2 22 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Development
(mil sf)
Among all segments, the prime logistics segment experienced the highest rental growth of 2.7% Factory (Grd Flr) $1.56 0.6% 3.3% Kranji Green 1.43
q-o-q this quarter, following the 1.4% q-o-q increase in Q1 2022. Vacancies in the prime logistics Factory (Upp Flr) $1.21 0.8% 2.5% TimMac @ Kranji 1.54
basket remained tight despite the addition of LOGOS Penjuru Logistics Centre as it completed
with full occupancy. Meanwhile, average warehouse rents increased by 1.8% q-o-q, and factory Warehouse (Grd Flr) $1.71 1.8% 6.9% Soilbuild 2 Pioneer Sector 1 0.73
rents increased 0.6% q-o-q in Q2 2022. Tee Yih Jia Food Hub 1.06
Warehouse (Upp Flr) $1.27 1.6% 5.0%
New industrial land supply to help alleviate shortage in longer term Prime Logistics $1.53 2.7% 7.0%
Year-to-date, prime logistics rentals have grown by 4.1%, attributed to positive leasing demand Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2022 Source: CBRE Research, JTC, Q2 2022
and the acute shortage of quality warehouse space. While the government is looking to ramp up
industrial land supply via the H2 2022 IGLS Programme, completions would only be realised two
to three years later. Thus, following the strong rental increase in 2021, further rental increases
can be expected in the prime logistics segment in the near term.
Residential FIGURE 6: New Private Residential Units Take-up & URA Price Index (incl. ECs)
No. of units
New home sales picked up with attractive new launches 25,000 200
22,500 180
Following the lull period in Q1 2022, sales volumes in Q2 2022 saw an uptick as developers rolled 20,000 160
out more new homes. Q2 2022 preliminary figures show that 2,370 new homes were sold, picking 17,500 140
up from 1,825 units sold in Q1 2022. Sales volumes were bolstered by the successful launches of 15,000 120
new City Fringe projects Liv@MB and Piccadilly Grand, which saw brisk take-up of over 70% on 12,500 100
22,197
their first launch weekend despite high median unit pricing of above S$2,000 psf. 10,000 80
7,500 14,948 60
13,027
5,000 10,566 9,912 9,982 40
Private home price growth accelerated despite cooling measures, rising rates 7,316 7,440 7,972 8,795
1,825 2,370
2,500 20
Flash estimates showed that URA’s All Private Residential Price Index registered a 3.2% q-o-q 0 0
2020
2021
Q1 22
Q2 22*
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
increase in Q2 2022, after the 0.7% q-o-q rise in Q1 2022. This was led by new project launches
in the City Fringe (RCR) – which set new benchmark prices – as developers held firm on their
No. of Units Sold URA (All) Residential Price index
asking prices amid higher construction costs and low unsold inventory. On the other hand,
Source: URA, CBRE Research, Q2 2022
landed homes saw price growth moderate to 2.9% q-o-q in Q2 2022, slower than the 4.2% q-o-q Note: *Preliminary figures (excl. ECs) for Q2 2022 based on Realis caveats as of 12 Jul 2022
increase observed in Q1 2022, as sellers and buyers’ price gap widened.
FIGURE 7: Non-landed Median psf Rents by Market Segment TABLE 10: Top 3 Projects (New Sale) in Q2 2022
Private residential rents poised to rise further after Q1 2022’s record high $psf/mth
5.50
Based on the URA Rental Index for all private residential properties, rents increased by 4.2% q- 4.88 Piccadilly Normanton
5.00 Project Liv@MB
o-q and 12.1% y-o-y in Q1 2022, reaching a new high. Following the reopening of Singapore’s Grand Park
borders, median psf rents for non-landed properties rose at an accelerated pace in Apr and May 4.50
4.05
2022. This was likely due to increased demand from inbound travellers and recent homesellers 4.00
whose new home completions have been affected by construction delays. This upward rental Tenure 99y 99y 99y
3.50
trend is likely to sustain until more supply is completed in 2023. 3.52
3.00 Median Price
Positive sentiment but significant headwinds loom ($psf) in $2,175 $2,408 $1,868
2.50
quarter
Strong economic growth, upgraders’ demand and rising rents have underpinned the private and 2.00
public residential market thus far. However, rising macroeconomic uncertainties and mortgage 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Apr-22 May-22
Units sold in
rates may deter potential homebuyers moving forward. CBRE Research maintains its 2022 new CCR RCR OCR 325 231 112
quarter
home sales forecast at 9,000 – 10,000 units, from 13,027 units in 2021. In view of the stronger-
Source: URA, CBRE Research, Q2 2022 Source: URA, CBRE Research, Q2 2022
than-expected pick-up in home prices in Q2 2022, 2022’s full-year price forecast has been raised Note: For non-landed residential units only. Based on Realis caveats as Note: Based on Realis caveats as of 12 Jul 2022
from 3% to 5%, which still represents a slowdown from the 10.6% increase in 2021. of 12 Jul 2022.
Q2 20
Q2 21
Q3 20
Q3 21
Q2 17
Q2 18
Q2 19
Q1 20
Q4 20
Q1 21
Q4 21
Q1 22
Q2 22*
Q3 17
Q3 18
Q3 19
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
Q4 19
large real estate investors was also witnessed from AEW’s purchase of Westgate Tower from Sun
Venture Group for $680.00 mil ($2,230 psf), after divesting Twenty Anson in Q1 2022. Excluding Hotel Industrial Mixed Office Others Residential Retail 4QRT
residential transactions which were mainly boosted by GLS sales, the office sector accounted for the
largest proportion of investment volumes in H1 2022 at $4.610bn, up 75.4% y-o-y. Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2022 , *Preliminary figures
While investor sentiment has softened due to rising interest rates, investment volumes in Q2 2022 70
Q2 20
Q2 21
Q2 22
Q3 20
Q3 21
Q2 17
Q2 19
Q1 20
Q4 20
Q1 21
Q4 21
Q1 22
Q3 17
Q3 19
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
Q4 19
stayed resilient due to ample liquidity and recovering rentals. Singapore’s safe haven status has also
continued to attract investors seeking wealth preservation. As such, capital values and yields have
remained mostly firm. With some sizeable deals now under negotiation or recently concluded, Grade A Office Prime Retail Prime Logistics Leasehold Prime Residential
investment outlook for H2 2022 remains positive. CBRE Research expects 2022 investment volumes Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2022
to grow by up to 10% from the year before, led by commercial and industrial sales.
Singapore Research
Global Research
© Copyright 2022. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared in good faith, based on CBRE’s current anecdotal and evidence based views of the commercial real estate market. Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation, they are
subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond CBRE’s control. In addition, many of CBRE’s views are opinion and/or projections based on CBRE’s subjective analyses of current market circumstances. Other firms may have different opinions, projections
and analyses, and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBRE’s current views to later be incorrect. CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions, projections, analyses or market circumstances later change.
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