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Chapter-4 5th Year Economic and Financial Analysis Pde
Chapter-4 5th Year Economic and Financial Analysis Pde
Fig. 4.1 Flow of goods, services, resources and money payments in a simple economy.
Flow in an Economy
2. Economic efficiency
Economic efficiency is the ratio of output to input of a business system.
Plant design projects are typically continuous and long term, involving
investment, and hence are perceived as a business risks or success.
This means that by doing such an estimate, the true cost of building the plant
would likely be in the range of 6% higher than and 4% lower than the
estimated price. Likewise, the effort to prepare a Class 5 estimate for a
chemical process is typically in the range of 0.015% to 0.30% of the total
installed cost of the plant.
b. For a Class 4 estimate, from Table 4.1 the expected accuracy
range is between 3 and 12 times that of Class 1 estimate.
Cost of Estimate & degree of Accuracy
5 5
Cost of Estimate
and Time 4
3
Cost 3
2
1
Accuracy
When a chemical engineer determines costs for any type of
commercial process, these costs should be of sufficient
accuracy to provide reliable decisions.
5
3
3
2
1
Total capital Investment
If the production capacity of the process is greater than the sales demand, the
operation can be carried on at reduced capacity or periodically at full capacity.
As indicated in this figure below, the fixed costs remain constant and the total
product cost increases as the rate of production increases.
When equipment stands idle for an extended period of time, the labor costs
are usually low; however, other costs, such as those for maintenance,
protection, and depreciation, continue even though the equipment is not in
active use.
The main objective of break-even analysis is to find the cut-off production volume
from where a firm will make profit.
a) Break-even point occurs (or is the percentage of plant capacity) when the total
annual product cost equals the total annual sales. i.e:
b) Total Annual Product Cost = Total Annual Sales (total income from all products
sold).This is shown by Figure below
BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS CONT’
In a different context, Break-even point is the time reached at which all the investment has
been paid off and the plant begins to make profit as shown in Figure 4.4.
The linear plots of the above two equations are shown in Fig. 4.3.
The intersection point of the total sales revenue line and the total
cost line is called the break-even point.
The corresponding volume of production on the X-axis is known as
the break-even sales quantity.
At the intersection point, the total cost is equal to the total
revenue. This point is also called the no-loss or no-gain situation.
For any production quantity which is less than the break-even
quantity, the total cost is more than the total revenue.
Hence, the firm will be making loss.
For any production quantity which is more than the break-even
quantity, the total revenue will be more than the total cost. Hence,
the firm will be making profit.
BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS
BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS
X 1000
Fixed cost = Birr 2,000,000, Variable cost per unit = 100Birr/unit, Selling price per
unit = 200Birr/unit
Find
(a) The break-even sales quantity, (b) The break-even sales
(c) If the actual production quantity is 60,000, find (i) contribution; and
(ii) margin of safety by all methods.
Solution
FC 2,000 000
(a) Break - even quantity 20,000units
s - v 200 - 100
FC 2,000,000* 200
(b)Break - even sales *s Birr4,000,000
s-v 200 100
(c) (i) Contribution Sales – Variable cost
s * Q v * Q Q (s v)
60,000 (200 100) Birr600,000.00
EXAMPLE 4.1 ELFORA poultry farm/ Associates has the following details:
8,000,000
M.S. as a per cent of sales *100 67%
12,000,000
EXAMPLE 4.2 Bedele Brewery share company has the following details:
At break-even,
Total product cost per annum = Total annual sales
$ 200,000 + 20x = 40x
Where x is the units required to break-even
x = 10000 units
Therefore at break-even, 10,000 units will be produced.
(ii) Gross annual earnings = total annual sales – total annual
product cost
= 14,000 units × $ 40 per unit/0.70 – ($ 200,000 + (14,000 units
× $ 20per unit/0.7))
= $ 200,000
Net annual earnings
= $ 200,000 – [0.22(200,000) + 0.26(175,000)]
= $ 110,500
Governmental Policies
Law and regulations and restrictions which have a direct effect
on industrial costs. Some of these are;
import and export
tariff regulations,
restrictions on permissible depreciation rates,
income-tax rules, and
environmental regulations and safety regulation
The sum of the fixed-capital investment
and the working capital is known as the
total capital investment (TCI).
Fixed-capital Investment Items For A Chemical Process
Table 4-1 provides a checklist of items for a new facility and is an invaluable
aid in making a complete estimation of the FCI.
Direct Costs
1. Purchased equipment
All equipment listed on a complete flow sheet, Spare parts and non installed
equipment spares, Surplus equipment, supplies, and equipment allowance
Inflation cost allowance, Freight charges, Taxes, insurance, duties
Allowance for modifications during startup
2. Purchased-equipment installation
Installation of all equipment listed on complete flow sheet
Structural supports, insulation, paint
3. Instrumentation and controls
Purchase, installation, calibration, computer tie-in
4. Piping
Process piping-carbon steel, alloy, cast iron, lead, lined, aluminum, copper,
ceramic, plastic, rubber, reinforced concrete, Pipe hangers, fittings, valves.
Insulation-piping, equipment
Fixed-capital Investment Items For A Chemical Process cont’d
7. Yard improvements
Site development-site clearing, grading, roads, walkways, railroads, fences, parking
areas, wharves and piers, recreational facilities, landscaping
8. Service facilities
Utilities-steam, water, power, refrigeration, compressed air, fuel, waste
disposal.
Facilities-boiler plant incinerator, wells, river intake, water treatment, cooling
towers, water storage, electric substation, refrigeration plant, air plant, fuel
storage, waste disposal plant, environmental controls, fire protection.
No process equipment-office furniture and equipment, cafeteria equipment,
safety and medical equipment, shop equipment, automotive equipment, yard
material-handling equipment, laboratory equipment, locker-room equipment,
garage equipment, shelves, bins, pallets, hand trucks, housekeeping
equipment, fire extinguishers, hoses, fire engines, loading stations. Distribution
and packaging-raw-material and product storage and handling equipment,
product packaging equipment, blending facilities, loading stations.
9. Land
Surveys and fees and Property cost
Fixed-capital Investment Items For A Chemical Process cont’d
Indirect costs
1. Engineering and supervision
Engineering costs-administrative, process, design and general
engineering, drafting, cost engineering, procuring, expediting, reproduction,
communications, scale models, consultant fees, travel
Engineering supervision and inspection
2. Construction expenses
Construction, operation and maintenance of temporary facilities, offices,
roads, parking lots, railroads, electrical, piping, communications, fencing
Construction tools and equipment
Construction supervision, accounting, timekeeping, purchasing,
expediting
Warehouse personnel and expense, guards
Safety, medical, fringe benefits
Permits, field tests, special licenses
Taxes, insurance, interest
3. Contractor’s fee
4. Contingency
Working Capital(WC)
Effect of Time
Cost Indexes
Marshall & Swift Equipment Cost Indexes
all-industry equipment index - arithmetic average of indexes for 47
different types of industrial, commercial, and housing equipment based
on an index value of 100 for the year 1926
account for cost of machinery and major equipment plus costs for
installation, fixtures, tools, office, and minor equipment.
Engineering News-Record Construction Cost Index
Relative construction costs at various dates can be estimated by the
use of this method.
indicates variance in labor rates and materials costs for industrial
construction
On one of three basis’ used: 100 for 1913, 1949 or 1967
Nelson-Farrar Refinery Construction Cost Index
• This will determine the petroleum industry
construction costs. The total index percentages are
weighted as follows: skilled labor, 30; common labor,
30; iron and steel, 20;
An index value of 100 is used for the base year of 1946
Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index$ based on 1957-1959 =
100.
Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index from 1950 to 2008
700
500
400
300
200
100
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index
Unfortunately, all cost indexes are rather artificial; two
indexes covering the same types of projects may give
results that differ considerably.
The most that any index can hope to do is to reflect
average changes.
The values for the bare module cost multiplying factors vary between
equipment modules.
Table 4.11 Equations for Evaluating Direct,
Indirect, Contingency & Fee Cost
Example 4.10
The purchased cost for a carbon steel heat exchanger operating at
ambient pressure is RM 10,000. For a heat exchanger module, the
following cost information:
solution:
Example 4.5: Problem Statement:
4. A company is considering the manufacture of ethylene oxide as
an intermediate for its polymer division. The process to be used is
the direct oxidation of ethylene. The company built a similar unit in
2001 that had a rated capacity of 100,000 tons annually for
$66,000,000. The projected production of the new facility is to be
150,000 tons annually. Estimate the fixed capital investment in
late 2007 dollars to produce the required ethylene oxide.
Solution:CE Index for 2001 = 396.5
CE Index for late 2007 = 426.8
0.67
capacity150 CEI 2007
Cost150 (2007) cost100 (2001)
capacity100 CEI 2001
0.67
150 396.5
Ca150 $60,000 67,816.4
100 426.8
Example 4.10: Detailed item estimate
Initial design work was done for a chemical plant to revamp the
process in order to recover valuable product from an effluent gas
stream. The gas will be scrubbed with a solvent in a packed
column and the recovered product and solvent separated by
distillation. The solvent will then be cooled and recycled. The
major items of equipment required and their purchased costs in
Birr are:
Absorption column: Column purchased cost = 19,800
Cost of column packing = 6,786
Recovery column: Column purchased cost = 45,000
Cost of 30 sieve trays = 8,670
Reboiler: Cost of reboiler = 7,600
Condenser: Purchased cost = 4,800
Recycle solvent cooler: Cost of cooler = 2,550
Storage tank: Cost of tank = 7,790
Example 4.10: Detailed item estimate
The relevant component factors for this processing plant are;
f1: equipment erection = 0.40
f2: piping = 0.70
f3: Instrumentation = 0.2
f4: electrical = 0.10
f10: design and engineering = 0.30
f12: contingencies = 0.20
Estimate the total capital investment for the project, if the
working capital can be taken as 10 % of the fixed capital cost.
Answer : Working capital= Birr 37,079.00
Total capital Investment= Birr 407,864.00
Estimation of total product cost
Determination of the necessary capital investment is only one part
of a complete cost estimate. Another equally important part is the
estimation of costs for operating the plant and selling the products.
Total Production Cost is divided into two classifications
1 .Manufacturing Costs and (2) General Expenses
All expenses directly connected with the manufacturing operation or the
physical equipment of a process plant itself are included in the
manufacturing costs. Classified into three
MC =Direct Production Costs + Fixed Costs(charges) + plant overhead costs
Direct production costs include expenses directly associated with the
manufacturing operation. This type of cost involves expenditures for raw
materials (including transportation, unloading, etc.,); direct operating
labor; supervisory and clerical labor directly connected with the
manufacturing operation; plant maintenance and repairs; operating
supplies; power; utilities; royalties; and catalysts.
Estimation of total product cost
• Fixed charges are expenses which remain practically
constant from year to year and do not vary widely with
changes in production rate. Depreciation, property taxes,
insurance, and rent require expenditures that can be
classified as fixed charges.
These costs are similar to the basic fixed charges in that they
do not vary widely with changes in production rate.
Estimation of total product cost
2. General Expenses:- these general expenses may be classified as (1)
administrative expenses, (2) distribution and marketing expenses, (3)
research and development expenses, (4) financing expenses, and (5)
gross-earnings expenses.
Administrative expenses include costs for executive and clerical
wages, office supplies, engineering and legal expenses, upkeep on
office buildings, and general communications.
Distribution and marketing expenses are costs incurred in the
process of selling and distributing the various products. These costs
include expenditures for materials handling, containers, shipping,
sales offices, salesmen, technical sales service, and advertising.
Research and development expenses are incurred by any progressive
concern which wishes to remain in a competitive industrial position.
Financing expenses include the extra costs involved in procuring
the money necessary for the capital investment.
Gross-earnings expenses are based on income-tax laws.
Table 4.7 Factors Affecting the Cost of
Manufacturing ( COM) for a Chemical Product
Table 4.7 Factors Affecting the Cost of
Manufacturing ( COM) for a Chemical Product
Total Production(Operating) Cost /TPC (TOC)
Estimation of Manufacturing Costs
All expenses manufacturing expenses are divided into
three classifications
1.Direct Costs
Vary with production rate but not necessarily directly
proportional
2.Fixed Costs
Do not vary with production rate but relate “directly”
to production function
3.General Expenses
Functions to which operations must contribute –
overhead burden
Table 4.8 Multiplication Factors for Estimating Manufacturing Cost*
Cost of Manufacture (COM)
COM = DMC + FMC + GE
COM is the sum of Direct (DMC) and Fixed (FMC) Manufacture Costs and
General Expenses (GE)
COM
GE
FMC
DMC
Cost of Manufacture
FCI, COL, CUT, CWT, and CRM are typically determined
from:
material and energy balances,
a knowledge of the type of plant being considered,
the size of the facility,
the nature of the raw materials and their commodity
costs, etc.
Direct Manufacture Costs (DMC)
The cost items for each of the three categories are added
together to provide the total cost for each category.
The equations for estimating the costs for each of the
categories are as follows:
1. DMC = CRM + CWT + CUT + 1.33COL + 0.069FCI +
0.03COM
2. FMC = 0.708COL + 0.068FCI + depreciation
3. GE = 0.177COL + 0.009FCI + 0.16COM
We can obtain the total manufacturing cost by adding these three
cost categories together and solving for the total
manufacturing cost, COM. The result is
COM =1.23(CRM+CWT+CUT) + 2.73 COL + 0.280 FCI …………………………(4.1)
In Equation (4.1), the depreciation allowance of 0.10FCI is added
separately.
Direct Manufacture Costs (DMC)
1. DMC = CRM + CUT + 1.33 COL + 0.03 COM + 0.069
FCI + CWT
CRM; Raw materials
CUT; Utilities,
COL Operating labor
direct supervisory & clerical labor, CSC = aSCCOL ( aSC = 0.18)
maintenance/repair, CMR = aMRFCI (aMR = 0.06)= 0.06FCI
operating supply, COS = aOSCMR = aOSaMRFCI (aOS = 0.15)
laboratory charges, CLC = aLCCOL (aLC = 0.15)
patents/royalties, CPR = aPRCOM (aLC = 0.03)
Waste treatment CWT,
Fixed Costs (FMC)
FC = 0.708 COL + 0.068 FCI + dep
Factors not affected by production rate
Depreciation
CDEP = aDEP FCI (just as easy to use MACRS)
local taxes and insurance
CTI = aTI FCI (aTI = 0.032)
plant overhead costs
CPO = aPO (COL + CSC + CMR); (aPO = 0.6)
= aPO (COL + aSC COL + aMR FCI)
General Expenses (GE)
GE = 0.177 COL + 0.009 FCI + 0.16 COM
administration costs
COL = aAD (COL + CSC + CMR); (aAD = 0.15)
distribution and sales costs
CDS = aDS COM; (aDS = 0.11)
R&D
CRD = aRD COM; (aRD = 0.05)
Cost of Manufacture (COM)
COM = DMC + FMC + GE
COM =CRM + CWT + CUT + 1.33 COL + 0.03COM + 0.069 FCI + 0.708 COL +
0.068 FCI + dep + 0.177 COL + 0.009FCI + 0.16 COM
Utilities $356,000/yr
Four and one-half operators are hired for each operator needed
in the plant at any time. This provides the needed operating
labor but does not include any support or supervisory staff.
Cost of Operating Labor (COL)
In general, for the processes considered in this text, the value
of P is zero, and the value of Nnp is given by
N np equipmen
c ompre ssors
t owe rs
re ac t ors
he at e rs
e x c hange rs
A utility summary for all the equipment is given in Table 4.10, from which we
find the total yearly utility costs for this process:
• Steam(S) = $ 3,412,000/yr Cooling Water (CW)= $ 165,000/yr
Fuel Gas(FG) = $2,771,000/yr Electricity(E) = $37,400/yr
Total Utilities = $6,385,000/yr=S + CW + E+ FG
Example 4.10 cont.’
Raw Material Costs from the PFD
a) Yearly cost of toluene= (24)(365)(10,000)(0.648)(0.95)
= $53,927,000/yr
b. Hydrogen = $6,622,000/yr (based on a value of $0.118/std m3)
Total Raw Materials = a + b = $60,549,000/yr
c. There are no waste streams shown on the PFD, so
Waste Treatment = $0.0/yr
d. COL = (14)(52,900) = $741,000/yr
NOL 6.29 31.7(0) 0.23(11)
2
0.5
2.97
The number of operators required per shift = 2.97.
Operating Labor = (4.5)(2.97) = 13.4 (rounding up to the
nearest integer yields 14 operators)
Labor Costs (2001) = 14 × $52,900 = $740,600/yr
Example 4.10 cont.’
The fixed capital investment (CGR) for the process is
FCI = $ 11.7 × 106
Finally, using the following formula the total manufacturing cost is
estimated to be
COMd = 0.180 FCI +2.73 COL + 1.23(CRM+CWT+CUT)
= (0.180)(11.7 × 106) + 2.73 (741,000) + 1.23 (6,385,000 +
60,549,000 + 0)
= $ 86.46 × 106/yr
Exercise 4.3
1. The total capital investment for a conventional chemical plant is
$1,500,000, and the plant produces 3 million kg of product annually. The
selling price of the product is $0.82/kg. Working capital amounts to 15
percent of the total capital investment. The investment is from company
funds, and no interest is charged. Raw-materials costs for the product are
$0.09/kg, labor $O.O8/kg, utilities $O.O5/kg, and packaging $O.O08/kg.
Distribution costs are 5 percent of the total product cost. Estimate the
following:
(a) Manufacturing cost per kilogram of product.
(b) Total product cost per year.
(c) Profit per kilogram of product before taxes.
(d) Profit per kilogram of product after taxes (use current rate).
2. A process plant making 2000 tons per year of a product selling for $0.80
per lb has annual direct production costs of $2 million at 100 percent
capacity and other fixed costs of $700,000. What is the fixed cost per pound
at the break-even point? If the selling price of the product is increased by 10
percent, what is the dollar increase in net profit at full capacity if the income
tax rate is 34 percent of gross earnings?
Exercise 4.3 cont.…
3. A company has direct production costs equal to 50 percent of total
annual sales and fixed charges, overhead, and general expenses equal to
$200,000. If management proposes to increase present annual sales of
$800,000 by 30 percent with a 20 percent increase in fixed charges,
overhead, and general expenses, what annual sales dollar is required to
provide the same gross earnings as the present plant operation?
What would be the net profit if the expanded plant were operated at
full capacity with an income tax on gross earnings fixed at 35 percent?
what would be the net profit for the enlarged plant if total annual sales
remained the same as at present? What would be the net profit for the
enlarged plant if the total annual sales actually decreased to $700,000?
Interests and investment cost
Engineers define interest as the compensation paid for the use of
borrowed capital. This definition permits distinction between profit
and interest.
TYPES OF INTEREST
Simple Interest: In economic terminology, the amount of capital on
which interest is paid is designated as the principal, and rate of
interest is defined as the amount of interest earned by a unit of
principal in a unit of time. The time unit is usually taken as one year.
• The simplest form of interest requires compensation payment at a
constant interest rate based only on the original principal.
• the entire amount S of principal plus simple interest due after n
interest periods is S = P + Z = P(1 + i*n)
If P represents the principal, n the number of time units or interest
periods, and i the interest rate based on the length of one interest
period, the amount of simple interest Z during n interest periods is
Money, when
invested, makes
money.
Money today is
worth more than
money in the
future.
Interests and investment cost
Compound Interest: In the payment of simple interest, it
makes no difference whether the interest is paid at the end of each
time unit or after any number of time units.
The same total amount of money is paid during a given length of
time, no matter which method is used. Under these conditions,
there is no incentive to pay the interest until the end of the total
loan period.
Interest, like all negotiable capital, has a time value.
the total amount of principal plus compounded interest due after n
interest periods and designated as S
s = P(1 + i)n
The term (1 + i)” is commonly referred to as the discrete single-
payment compound-amount factor.
Compound Interest
At the end of each interest period the interest is added to the
principal.
Interests and investment cost
In common engineering practice, it is usually preferable to deal with
effective interest rates rather than with nominal interest rates. The
only time that nominal and effective interest rates are equal is when
the interest is compounded annually.
the interest rate based on the length of one interest period is r/m,
and the amount S after 1 year is
the effective interest rate in terms of the nominal interest rate and
the number of periods per year:
Example 4.11
1. Applications of different types of interest. It is desired to borrow
$1000 to meet a financial obligation. This money can be borrowed
from a loan agency at a monthly interest rate of 2 percent.
Determine the following:
a) The total amount of principal plus simple interest due after 2 years
if no intermediate payments are made.
b) The total amount of principal plus compounded interest due after 2
years if no intermediate payments are made.
c) The nominal interest rate when the interest is compounded
monthly.
d) The effective interest rate when the interest is compounded
monthly.
Exercise -4.4
1. For total yearly payments of $5000 for 10 years, compare the compound
amount accumulated at the end of 10 years if the payments are ;
a) end-of-year
b) weekly
c) continuous. The effective (annual) interest is 20 percent and payments
are uniform.
d) determine the present worth at time zero for each of the three types of
payments i.e. (a, b and c)
2. An original loan of $2000 was made at 6 percent simple interest per year
for 4 years. At the end of this time, no interest had been paid and the loan
was extended for 6 more years at a new, effective, compound-interest rate of
8 percent per year. What is the total amount owed at the end of the 10 years
if no intermediate payments are made?
3. An annuity due is being used to accumulate money. Interest is compounded
at an effective annual rate of 8 percent, and $1000 is deposited at the
beginning of each year. What will the total amount of the annuity due be after
5 years?
Exercise -4.4 cont.…
3. Upon graduation, you start your first job at $50,000/yr. You decide to
set aside 10%, or $5000/yr, for retirement in 40 years’ time, and you
assume that you will live 20 years after retiring. You have been offered
an investment that will pay you $67,468/yr during your retirement
years for the money you invest.
a. How much money would you have per year in retirement if you had
saved the money, but not invested it, until retirement?
b. How does this compare with the investment plan offered?
c. How much money was produced from the investment?
CONTINUOUS INTEREST
The concept of continuous interest is that the cost or income due to
interest flows regularly, and this is just as reasonable an assumption
for most cases as the concept of interest accumulating only at
discrete intervals.
The reason why continuous interest has not been used widely is
that most industrial and financial practices are based on methods
which executives and the public are used to and can understand.
continuous interest compounding at a nominal annual interest rate
of r, the amount S an initial principal P will compound to in n years
is? S = Pern = P(l + ieff)n
Future worth = present worth x compound interest factor
S = PC
present worth=Future worth x discount factor
P = SF
• Discount factor = F =(1/compound interest factor)=1/C
Cont’d
The overall concept of interest evaluations is simplified by the use of the less-
complicated nomenclature where designated factors are applied. Thus,
expressing both SF = P would mean that F is e-rn for the continuous interest
case of (1 + i)-n for the discrete interest case.
Example 4.13 Calculations with continuous interest compounding. For the case of
nominal annual interest rate of 20%, determine:
a) The total amount to which one dollar of initial principal would accumulate
after one 365day year with daily compounding.
b) The total amount to which one dollar of initial principal would accumulate
after one year with continuous compounding.
c) The effective annual interest rate if compounding is continuous.
CONTINUOUS CASH FLOW AND INTEREST COMPOUNDING
Let r represent the nominal interest rate with m conversions or
interest periods per year so that i = r/m and the total number of
interest periods in n years is mn. With m annuity payments per year,
let R represent the total of all ordinary annuity payments occurring
regularly and uniformly throughout the year so that R/m is the
uniform annuity payment at the end of each period.
d)
Present Worth of an Annuity
It is defined as the principal which would have to be invested at the
present time at compound interest rate i to yield a total amount at
the end of the annuity term equal to the amount of the annuity.
for the case of discrete interest compounding,
i
R S * R 10000* 0.06
1 i 1 $759 / year
n
1 0.06 1
10
TYPES OF TAXES
Taxes may be classified into three types: (1) property taxes, (2)
excise taxes, and (3) income taxes. These taxes may be levied
by the Federal government, state governments, or local
governments.
1. Property Taxes
Local governments usually have jurisdiction over property taxes, which are
commonly charged on a county basis. In addition to these, individual cities and
towns may have special property taxes for industrial concerns located within
the city limits.
TAXES AND INSURANCE
2. Excise Taxes: are levied by Federal and state
governments. Federal excise taxes include charges for import
customs duties, transfer of stocks and bonds, and a large number
of other similar items.
3. Income taxes: In general, income taxes are based on gross earnings,
which are defined as the difference between total income and total product
cost.
Taxes and Depreciation
In determining the influence of depreciation costs on income
taxes, it should be clear that depreciation costs represent a
deduction from taxable gross earnings. Thus, if d is the
depreciation cost for the year and ø is the fractional tax
rate: Tax “credit” for depreciation = ød
Funds set aside for depreciation, although they represent a
cost, normally go directly into the corporation treasury.
TAXES AND INSURANCE
Therefore, if S represents the total annual income or revenue
and C represents the total annual costs with the exceptions of
depreciation and taxes,
Net annual cash flow to company after taxes:
= (S – C - d)(1 - ø) + d = (S - C)(1 - ø) + ød
What is INSURANCE?
Insurance is a legal contract that transfers risk from a
policyholder to an insurance provider.
Profitability Analysis
Money has a time value because its purchasing power changes over
time (inflation).
The changes in the value of a sum of money over time can become
extremely significant when we deal with large amounts of money,
long periods of time, or high interest rates.
The word profitability is used as the general term for the measure of
the amount of profit that can be obtained from a given situation.
Profitability is the common denominator for all business activities.
EXAMPLES FOR SIMPLE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The concept of simple economic analysis is illustrated using suitable
examples in the following areas:
Material selection for a product
Design selection for a product
Design selection for a process industry
Building material selection for construction activities
Process planning/Process modification
Material Selection for a Product/Substitution of Raw
Material
The cost of a product can be reduced greatly by substitution of
the raw materials. Among various elements of cost, raw material
cost is most significant and it forms a major portion of the total
cost of any product. So, any attempt to find a suitable raw
material will bring a reduction in the total cost in any one
Material Selection for a Product/Substitution of Raw
Material
or combinations of the following ways:
Cheaper raw material price
Reduced machining/process time
Enhanced durability of the product
Therefore, the process of raw material selection/substitution will result
in finding an alternate raw material which will provide the necessary
functions that are provided by the raw material that is presently used.
In this process, if the new raw material provides any additional benefit,
then it should be treated as its welcoming feature.
EXAMPLE 4.1 In the design of a jet engine part, the designer has a
choice of specifying either an aluminum alloy casting or a steel
casting. Either material will provide equal service, but the aluminum
casting will weigh 1.2 kg as compared with 1.35 kg for the steel
casting.
EXAMPLE 4.1 Substitution of Raw Material cont’
The aluminum can be cast for Birr80.00 per kg. and the steel one for
Birr35.00per kg. The cost of machining per unit is Birr150.00 for
aluminum and Birr170.00 for steel. Every kilogram of excess weight
is associated with a penalty of Birr 1,300 due to increased fuel
consumption. Which material should be specified and what is the
economic advantage of the selection per unit?
Solution (a) Cost of using aluminum metal for the jet engine
part: Weight of aluminum casting/unit = 1.2 kg
Cost of making aluminum casting = Birr 80.00 per kg
Cost of machining aluminum casting per unit = Birr 150.00
Total cost of jet engine part made of aluminum/unit
= Cost of making aluminum casting/unit + Cost of machining
aluminum casting/unit
= 80 x 1.2 + 150 = 96 + 150 = Birr 246
EXAMPLE 4.1 Substitution of Raw Material cont’
For the yearly cash flow, According to Depreciation Class Lives and Modified
Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS)Recovery Periods the recovery
period is 5 years and the class life is 9.5 years for the equipment to manufacture
this product.
As an alternate to the MACRS, straight-line depreciation may be used. No salvage
value may be claimed under MACRS.
Note that the decrease in cash flow is significant beginning in year 6, and
thereafter depreciation is not applicable in years 7–11.
The cash flow diagram, is helpful for envisioning how cash flows in a project during
the first year of operation only. For subsequent years, a similar diagram may be
developed.
Cash Flow Table for Example 4.10
Cash flow diagram for Example 4.10
(first year of operation)
CUMULATIVE CASH POSITION PLOT
Frequently, we are interested in the flow of funds for a single project and not the
entire company. The cash flows may be shown over a project’s life on a cumulative
cash position plot. To develop this plot, an arbitrary time frame is selected.
There are normally two choices—time zero being when the plant starts up and
produces a salable product or when the first expenditure is made.
In Figure 4.10, time zero is selected as start-up. Expenditures for land and
equipment in this case are made prior to time zero and represent a negative cash
flow. At time zero, working capital is charged to the project, representing a further
negative cash flow.
As the plant begins to operate, revenues are generated from the sale of product
and positive cash flows occur. Figure 4.10 represents a historical flow of cash and
the cumulative effect of cash flow for the project, hence the name cumulative cash
position plot.
When the project terminates, the land and working capital are recovered by the
company. For this case, these capital items may be regarded as interest-free loans
to the project.
In the previous paragraph, time zero was selected as start-up. As an alternative, it
may be more convenient to select time zero when the first funds are spent.
The former approach is useful for cases when a new project is being considered.
The latter approach is frequently more convenient for cases when equipment is
being added to or an expansion of an already existing plant is to be made.
A typical cumulative cash position plot
Example 4.11
1. Small plastics, Inc. is considering the manufacture of novelty items for a
given market. Land may be purchased adjacent to their existing operation
for $425,000. An estimate of the fixed capital investment for the proposed
operation is $3,600,000. At start-up, $550,000 will be required as working
capital. It will take 2 years to prepare the land site, purchase and install the
necessary equipment. At the end of project, the land and working capital
are recovered. For this 11-year project, the following income and cash
operating expenses have been estimated: The 5-year MACRS depreciation
with half-year convention will be used and the federal income tax rate is
35%.
a) Return on investment (ROI)
b) Payback Period(PBP)
c) Develop a cash flow summary table
d) IRR
e) NPV
f) PV
g) PI
Solution:
Table 4.4 contains the major elements of a cash flow analysis. Across the top of the
table are the project years starting with -2 years and ending with the eleventh year when
the capital is recovered. In the left-hand column are the items that contribute to the cash
flow so that they may be considered properly at the proposed time. Beneath the total
capital investment are the individual entries constituting the profit–loss statement. At the
bottom left are the items after-tax cash flow, capital recovery, and cumulative cash flow.
3,600
PBP 3.978year
9,955
11
This template is constructed so that systematically various entries from Example 4.11
are entered in the appropriate places. This template may be thought to lie behind Table
4.4 and may be used for subsequent cases.
sum of h=6,355
Sum of I=9,955
Capital budgeting techniques
(Investment appraisal criteria)
Capital budgeting techniques under certainty can also be
divided into following two groups:
1. Non-Discounted Cash Flow Criteria: -
These are also known as traditional techniques
(a) Pay Back Period (PBP)
(b) Accounting Rate Of Return (ARR)
2. Discounted Cash Flow Criteria: -
(a) Net Present Value (NPV)
(b) Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
(c) Profitability Index (PI)
Discounted Cash Flow Criteria:
These are also known as modern or time adjusted techniques
because all these techniques take into consideration time
value of money.
Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) of cleaner
production option
• The costs and benefits (financial, economic,social and
environmental) must be quantified in monetary terms to
the maximum extent possible. Typically, CBA is used as a
tool in feasibility studies for selection of an alternative
least cost project among other projects.
•
• Thus, CBA is used in financial analysis to estimate the
profitability of a potential investment for a plant design
project.
•Cost-benefit analysis is a set of practical procedures for
guiding public expenditure decisions.
•CBA facilitates the comparison of alternatives in terms of the
monetary costs involved and the benefits obtained.
•Project evaluation usually requires comparing costs and
benefits from different time periods
Elements of CBA
Cash flow
Present value (PV)
Measures of Profitability
(Project Evaluation Techniques)
Payback Period
Net Present Value (NPV)
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Profitability Index
Depreciation
Profitability Criteria
Non-Discounted methods do not account for the time value of
money, and are of little value in comparing alternatives, except in
the case of equal project lives.
Needed for project evaluation:
Time (discounted payback period)
Cash (discounted cumulative cash position, net present value
[NPV], or net present worth)
Interest rate (discounted cash flow rate of return on investment,
DCFROR)
Discount rate for which the NPV is zero
investment appraisal: A means of assessing whether an
investment project is worthwhile or not.
The profit goal of a company is to maximize income above the cost
of the capital which must be invested to generate the income. If the
goal were merely to maximize profits, any investment would be
accepted which would give a profit, no matter how low the return or
how great the cost.
Profitability Criteria cont’d
For example, suppose that two equally sound investments can be
made. One of these requires $100,000 of capital and will yield a
profit of $10,000/year, and the second requires $1 million of capital
and will yield $25,0OO/year. The second investment gives a greater
yearly profit than the first, but the annual rate of return on the
second investment is only ($25,000/$1,000,000) x (100) = 2.5
percent
while the annual rate of return on the $100,000 investment is 10
percent. Because reliable bonds and other conservative investments
will yield annual rates of return in the range of 6 to 9 percent, the $1
million investment in this example would not be very attractive;
however, the 10 percent return on the $100,000 capital would make
this investment worthy of careful consideration.
Thus, for this example, the rate of return, rather than the total
amount of profit, is the important profitability factor in determining
if the investment should be made
Alternatives
• When only one alternative is to be selected from multiple
alternatives, the alternatives are said to be mutually exclusive.
• When comparing mutually exclusive investment alternatives, (1)
establish the minimum acceptable ROROI, (2) calculate the NPV for
each, (3) eliminate any projects with negative NPVs, then (4) chose
the alternative with the greatest positive NPV.
Cash Flow
$7,500. . . . . . . . . . . . . . $7,500
Cash Inflows
-2 -1 0 8
Cash Outflows
rate of return).
FV R 1 r
T
R=initial investment amount
r=rate of return on investment
(1+r)-T is the discount factor
T=years of investment
The future value (FV) of the investment is:
R
R=amount to be received in future
PV
r=rate of return on investment/ discount rate
T=years of investment 1 r
T
The present value (PV) of the investment is:
This is the increase in firm’s market value by the project.
R1 R2 RT
PV R0 ...
1 r 1 r 2 1 r T
A firm’s business involves capital investments (capital budgeting),
The objective is to increase the firm’s current market value.
Present Value (PV)
Private Sector Project Evaluation
Suppose there are two projects, X and Y
Each entails certain benefits and costs, denoted as BX, CX, BY, and CY.
Need to ask:
Is the project admissible?
Admissible: Are the benefits greater than the costs?
Is the project preferable?
Preferable: Are the net benefits the highest? Most projects involve a
stream of benefits and costs over time.
B
t
i
Benefits from project i at time t
Cti Costs from project i at time t
Present Value (PV)
The present value criteria for project evaluation are that:
A project is admissible only if its present value is positive
When two projects are mutually exclusive, the preferred project is the
one with the highest present value. The internal rate of return, ρ, is
defined as the ρ that solves the equation:
0 B0 C0
B1 C1
...
BT CT
1 1 T
•The IRR is the discount rate that would make the present
value of the project equal to zero.
– Admissible if ρ>r
– The flawed analysis would choose an admissible project
with the higher internal rate of return, ignoring scale
Government decision making about public projects
involves present value calculations
Present Value (PV)
Example -2 Calculate the present value (PV) of a $2,000 gift
that will be received after 10 years have passed. Assume money
is worth 6% per year.
PV= P/( 1 + i)n= 2000/(1+0.06)10 = $1,116.79
or
Where the calculation of the net present value was straightforward, the
determination of the rate of return requires a trial-and-error procedure.
An interest rate is chosen and then the net present value is determined.
If it is not zero, another interest rate is chosen and the net present value is
recalculated. This is continued until a zero net present value is obtained. IRR
is unreliable with non-conventional cash flows or mutually exclusive projects.
IRR is defined as that interest rate (r) which equates the sum of the present
value of cash inflows with the sum of the present value of cash outflows for a
project. This is the same as defining the IRR as that rate which satisfies each
of the following expressions:
Straight-Line Method
The value of the property decreases linearly with time.
Equal amounts are charged for depreciation each year
throughout the entire service life of the property.
2. MACRS
3. Depreciate 0
4. Recovery Period = Class Life
5. 1/2 Year Convention
6. Multiply percentage in table by the initial cost
Depreciation by Sinking Fund Method
Sinking Fund Method is a depreciation method where in funds will
accumulate for replacement purposes. The formulas for Sinking Fund
Method of Depreciation are:
Annual depreciation (A) = [ (FCI -Vs) (i) ] / [ (1 + i)^(n) -1 ]
Total depreciation after x years = A [(1 + i)^x - 1] / I
Book Value = FC -Total depreciation
Example :4.25:A machine costs Birr 300,000 with a salvage value of Birr
50,000 at the end of its life of 10 years. If money is worth 6% annually,
use Sinking Fund Method and determine the depreciation at the 6th
year. Solution
Annual depreciation (A) = [ (FCI -Vs) (i) ] / [ (1 + i)^(n) -1 ]A = [ (300,000 -
50,000) (0.06) ] / [ (1 + 0.06)^10 -1 ] = Birr18966.98956
Solve for the depreciation in the 6th year.? Total depreciation after x
years = A [(1 + i)^x - 1] / i
Total dep. = (18966.98956) [(1 + 0.06)^6 - 1] / 0.06 = Birr132,300.7939
MACRS Method
MACRS was derived from the 1981 ACRS system and went into effect
in 1986. Everything else equal, the greater the depreciation charges,
the lower the taxes paid by the firm. Depreciation is a noncash
expense.
Assets are depreciated (MACRS) on one of eight different property
classes. Generally, the half-year convention is used for MACRS.
Defines statutory recovery (depreciation) percentages
Percentages were derived from the DB method with a switch to SL at
the optimal time and incorporates the half-year convention.
The MACRS approach assumes a salvage value of “0” even though
that might not be the case!
By current law – MACRS assumes all assets depreciated by this
method will have a “0” salvage value at the end of the recovery life
To calculate depreciation expense using MACRS, taxpayers multiply
the MACRS basis of the property by a percentage taken from an IRS-
The Half-Year Convention
During a tax year, assets are purchased and installed throughout the first year.
The half-year convention assumes that assets(applies when at least 60% of the
MACRS basis of personal property) are placed in service or disposed of in midyear,
regardless of when these events actually occur during the year(first nine months of
the year).
under the half-year convention, taxpayers get one-half year’s depreciation in the
first and last years, regardless of how long the taxpayer actually owned the
property in those years
Under past laws, the first year of depreciation had to be prorated by the number of
months remaining in the tax year.
Under current federal tax law the first year is handled using the half-year
convention.
If asset is disposed of before the full recovery period is used, only half of the
normal depreciation deduction can be taken for that year.
Real property includes real estate and all improvements
– office buildings manufacturing structures, warehouses, apartments, and other
structures. Land itself is considered real property, but it is not depreciable
because it has an infinite life – land can never be depreciated for tax purposes.
Straight-Line Method
Straight-Line Method
Based on 200%
DB.
Note, for each
life
category there
are N+1
percentage
values where
N is the class
life.
Example 4.23
1. To meet increased sales, a large dairy is planning to purchase
10 new delivery trucks. Each truck will cost $18,000. Compute
end-of-year book value and the depreciation schedule for each
truck, using the modified accelerated cost recovery system
(MACRS) method, if the recovery period is 5 years.
end-of-year book value Solution
BVk+1 = BVk – dk+1
BV1 = 18,000 – 3,600=14,400
BV2 = 14,400 – 5,760=8,640
BV3 = 8,640 – 3,456=5,184
BV4 = 5,184 - 2073.60=3,110.4
BV5 = 3,110.4 - 2073.60=1,036.8
BV5 = 1,036.8 - 1036.80= 0.00
Data
* The overall caustic recovered from the MF system is 65% by volume
** The number of recovery runs at BWP is 4 times a year and the concentration of
caustic by weight is 2.5% or 25 kg/m3
*** The cost of 1 kg of pure caustic solution is $0.5
Case Study #1 – Installation Cost for the MF System
Table 2
System component Cost ($)
Membrane 7,000
In addition to the initial investment, the manufacturer states that the membrane
for the MF system will need to be replaced once in 3 years. The associated cost for
this will work out to be $7,500. The total life of the MF system is 12 years.
Case Study #1 - Calculations for the Net Annual Uniform Savings
Also, annual operating costs = cost for power and the cartridge =
$400 (from Table 2)
PV of cash outflows
= 18,000 + 7,500 + 7,500 + 7,500 = $31,049
(1+0.1)3 (1+0.1)6 (1+0.1)9