W Kwftiftm Twguf Yx0D: Tvif &eh@

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wkwftiftm;twGuf yx0D
t*Fvdyfyx0Dynm&Sif qm[,fvfzdk@'f rufuif'gu 1904 ckESpf ol&J ausmf
=um;wJhaqmif;yg;wpfyk'fjzpfwJh ordkif;.yx0Dqdkif&mqHkcsuf (The Geographical
Pivot of History) rSm wkwfudk owdxm;p&mtjzpf &nf!$ef;&if; tckvdka&;cJhygw,f?
tu,fI wkwfonf ol@e,fedrdwfudkausmfvGef+yD; tiftm;csJum;vm+yD
qdkv#if/ Tt&mu urBm}uD;vGwfvyfr_twGuf t0ga&miftE W&m,fqdk;zGJwnfvmjcif;
yifjzpfonf? ta=umif;rSm ol. yifv,frsufESmpmudk ,la&;&Sm; (Eurasia) wdkuf}uD;
wckvHk;txd qGJqef@xnfhoGif;vm+yD;/ &if;jrpftm;vHk;oHk;pGJ&if; k&Sm;=oZmr}uD;Edkifatmif
rsKdcsypfrnftxd jzpfoGm;rnf?
rufuif'g axmufjywmu jzpfwwfwJh vlrsKd;a&; trsKd;om;a&;awG c%
ab;z,fxm;? yx0DtjrifeJ@=unhf&if k&Sm;eJ@ tjcm;,la&;&Sm;EdkifiHawG[m ukef;wGif;ydkif;
tiftm;}uD;ayr,fh/ yifv,frsufESmpm csJum;zdk@twGuf a&cJawGu ydwfum;xm;vdk@
tuef@towf &Sdaew,f? wkwfusawmh obm0qdyfurf;aumif;awGeJ@ urf;dk;wef;
a&rdkif 9000 ausmf&Sdwmrdk@/ ukef;ydkif; yifv,fydkif; tiftm;ESpfckpvHk;udk ydkifqdkifxm;yg
w,f? rufuif'gtaeeJ@ wkwf[m wae@ae@rSm k&Sm;udkawmif v$rf;rdk;oGm;rSm ol pdk;&drf
a=umif; zGifhajymxm;ygw,f?
quf+yD; rufuif'gajymwmu wkwf[m ol&JwGif;xGufypPnf;/ [dkuf'dk
umAGef"eawGeJ@ A[dktm&Sudkjzef@usuf+yD; ypdzdwfork'N&mudk t"duoabFmvrf;a=umif;
zGifhxm;r,f? +yD;&if tar&du/ *&dwf+Adwdefwdk@eJ@tydif urBmhav;yHkwpfyHkaom vlom;
,Ofaus;r_opf (taemufryg) udk OD;aqmifoGm;vdrfhr,fwJh?
rufuif'g od'<dwifxm;wJh wkwf&J yx0Dtaetxm;u uae@ tvGefudk
ta&;ygvmyg+yD? yx0Dtm;omr_u vuf&Sd pD;yGm;a&; pef;yGifhr_eJ@ trsKd;om;a&;pdwf
jyif;xefr_wdk@xufudk wkwftwGuf ydkrsufESmomay;aew,fvdk@ qdk&ygr,f? qdkvdkwmu
ESpf(30)avmuf ESpfpOf *sD'DyD (10)&mcdkifE_ef;eJ@ yHkrSefpD;yGm;a&;rsOf;ajzmifhtwdkif; wdk;wuf
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tv,frSm t+rJwrf;rm;rm;rwfrwf &yfwnfaeapr,fhoabmygyJ?
wkwf[m ol@&JA[dkuaecsKyfudkif+yD; vl@tzGJ@tpnf;udkqGJwifr,fh [dkuf'
a&mvpf,Ofaus;r_ (hydraulic civilization) eJ@ taemufwdkif;pwdkif armf'efjzpfr_udk
tqHk;pGefa&morar$r,fh yHkpH&Sdygw,f? A[dkcsKyfudkifr_a=umifhyJ ayusif;tpdk;&[m oef;
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awGeJ@ wkwf[m r&yfrem; wufuG&SifoefaeyHk &ygw,f?
ESpfaygif; 4000 avmufu pcJhwJh rif;quf(25)quf&J yifyGm;rsKd;quf ,ae@
wkwfuGefjrLepftkyfpdk;olrsm;[m taemufwdkif;enf;ynmawGeJ@ usifhoHk;yHkawGudk pkyf,l
aew,f? taemufenf;ynmawGudk udk,fhudk,fydkif,Ofaus;r_ tawG@tuHawGeJ@ pepf
wusaygif;pyf+yD; tjcm;EdkifiHi,fawGudk rdrd&J jrpfvufwufozG,f qufqHxm;ygw,f?
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vkyfvdrfhr,f wJh? 'DvdkeJ@ wkwf&J twGif;ydkif;wufuG&Sifoefr_ (dynamism) u jyify
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rSefwJh vufawG@yg0gorm; (realist power)?
a&eHe@J wiG ;f xGuaf yguG,0f wJh tmz&du ae&ma'o awmfawmfrsm;rsm;udk tck
ajcqef@xm;ygw,f? tdE,
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45

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xifxif csJum;aeygw,f? wdkuf}uD;wckvHk;twGuf =oZmtm%m }uD;xGm;vmwmeJ@
tr#/ eydkvD,HwcguajymcJhwJh wkwfeJ@ tm&SEdkifiHawG&J rl0g'awG[m a&&SnfrSm olwdk@
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a'o}uD;ESpcf yk g? 'Da'oESpcf &k J vlrsK;d a&; trsK;d om;a&; wif;rmr_rsm;u ayusi;f rdawmfe@J
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wkwfjynftaemufbuftusqHk; jynfe,f&Jtrnf pifusef; qdkwm vuf
atmufcH ydkifeufopf (new dominion) vdk@ qdkvdkygw,f? tar&duef wufqyfjynf
e,f ESpfqcef@ &Sdygw,f? wkwf-wmupPwefvlrsKd;awGjzpf+yD; wkwfjynftcsuftjcm&J
ta0;rSm *dkbDoJuE Wm&udkjzwfvsuf wnf&Sdygw,f? wkwfeJ@ pifusef;[m ESpfaxmif
aygif;rsm;pGm oD;jcm;pD wnf&SdcJh&mu/ 19 &mpk aESmif;ydkif;usrS pifusef;[m wkwf&J
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[m wkwfatmufa&mufoGm;uwnf;u vGwfvyfa&;twGuf ykefuefr_awG awmuf
av#mufjzpfvmvdkufwm 1940 jynfhvGefESpfrsm;txd ygyJwJh?
1949 ckESpfrSmawmh armfpDwkef;uGefjrLepfawG pifusef;xJudk csDwufvmw,f?
twif;t=uyfowfjzwf+yD; wkwfjynf&J tpdwftydkif;tjzpf pifusef;udk aocsmatmif
vkyfypfvdkufw,f? 'gayr,fh 1990 eJ@ 1991 rSm tJ'Da'ou wmupf-O&*g rsKd;EG,fpkawG
u ayusif;tpdk;&udk qef@usifqENjyr_awG vkyfcJh=uygw,f? wmupf-O&*g rsKd;EG,fpkawG
46

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wkwfrSm O&*gvlrsKd; ta&twGufu (8)oef;cef@ &Sd+yD; wkwfvlOD;a&&J wpf
&mcdkifE_ef;atmufrSmyJ &Sdygw,f? odk@aomf pifusif;a'orSmawmh (45)&mcdkifE_ef; &Sdygw,f?
wkwfrSm [efvlrsKd;utrsm;pkjzpf+yD;/ olwdk@u wdkif;jynf&J A[dkajredrfhydkif;awGrSm aexdkif
=uygw,f? wdik ;f jynf&J taemufbufe@J taemufawmifbuf&dS ajcmufaoG@wu
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tck ayusif;tpdk;&&J acwfopf wkwfEdkifiHawmfrsufpdt&awmh pifusef;
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a'oawGqD q,fpkESpfrsm;csD+yD; twif;a&$ajymif;aexdkifcdkif;ygw,f? 'Dawmh pifusef;u
O&*gawGtwGuf tE W&m,fqdk;awG wae@wjcm;a&muf&Sdvmovdk jzpfaeygw,f?
ayusif;tpdk;&[m A[dktm&Stpdk;&rsm;udk jrLqG,fjzm;a,mif;+yD; ol@&J =oZm
e,fy,fcsJ um;zd@k ud;pm;aeygw,f? wkwv
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cs,fvS,fzdk@ pifusef;a'oujzwf+yD; r=umcif+yD;awmhr,fh ydkufvdkif;}uD;ESpfck oG,fwef;
wnfaqmufaeygw,f? wpfcku umZufpwefudkjzwf+yD; uufpyD,Hyifv,frS a&eH
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ayusif;tpdk;&[m tmz*efepPwefeJ@ ygupPwefudkjzwf+yD; vrf;awGaqmuf/
ydkufvdkif;awGoG,fwef;/ A[dktm&Sudk v$rf;rdk;zdk@ tdENd,yifv,fqdyfurf;awGeJ@ csdwfquf?
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AsL[m usaomyx0D ydkrdkatmifjrifzdk@ &SdvmygOD;r,f?
pifusef;vdkyJ wdbufa'oudkvnf; wkwfu ol@udk,fydkif e,fedrdwfvdk@ ,lq
xm;wmyg? awmifawGxx
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47

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cs,fvS,fvdkr_tay: yx0Dt& pdefac:r,fhol jzpfygw,f? yx0Da&puft& wkwfeJ@
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aemuf vm;rm;topftay: wkwf&J pdk;&drfr_awGeJ@vnf; ywfoufr_&Sdygw,f? aemuf
qufcrH ,fh vm;rm;topf[m tdE,
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,Ofaus;r_pD;a=umif;xJu xGufay:vmzdk@ &Sdygw,f?
wkwf tdE,
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vuFmwdk@twGuf tusKd;pD;yGm;ydifzdk@awG &Sdaeygw,f? pifusif;eJ@ wdbufa'oESpfckpvHk;
wkwf&J w&m;0ife,fedrdwfxJ usa&mufae&ayr,fh wkwftpdk;&[m t+rJwrf; a'ocH
vlrsKd;pkrsm;&J wif;rmwJhqufqHa&;udk uHae&ygr,f? ta=umif;u wkwf&J tdaENrJh
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ay:xGufvmr_udk ckcHEdkifpGrf; tenf;qHk;olrsm; jzpfygw,f? 'ga=umifhvnf; wkwf&J pD;yGm;
a&; EdkifiHa&; t&Sdeft0gu AD,uferf/ vmtdk/ xdkif;/ jrefrmwdk@tay: t+rJv$rf;aewmyg?
aemuf rJacgifjrpftay: tajcyxm;+yD;/ tif'dkcsKdif;em;u|ef;qG,fEdkifiHrsm;tm;vHk;udk ukef;
a=umif; a&a=umif;wdk@eJ@ csdwfqufay;wJh t"durduvnf; wkwf&J ,leefjynfe,fu
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abmvfuefa'ovdk@ ajymr,fqdk&if/ jrefrmuawmh 20&mpk tapmydkif; b,fvf*sD,HEdkifiH
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48

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urf; tydifaqmufzdk@ vkyfae=uygw,f? b*Fvm;yifv,fatmf&Sd jrefrmhurf;vGefwGif;


rsm;uae obm0"gwfaiG@ydkufvdkif;awG tqHk;pGefqGJxkwfzdk@ &nfrSef;xm;+yD;jzpfygw,f?
wkwfu ta&Sawmiftm&S a'owpfckvHk;twGuf cGJjcm;odrf;ydkufa&; r[m
AsL[m (divde-and-conquer) udk ae&mwdik ;f rSm usio
hf ;kH ygw,f? t&ifwek ;f u tmqD,H
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tck tmqD,HeJ@ vGwfvyfaomukefoG,fa&;oabmwlnDcsufa&;xdk;+yD;wJhaemuf EdkifiH
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(surplus) ap+yD;/ tmqD,HEdkifiHrsm;tzdk@awmh wkwfvkyfom;rsm;u aps;aygaygxkwfwJh
rpGHwJh av#mhaps; tr_dufyHkae&m}uD;vdk jzpfvmygw,f? tJ'D tajctaeu xdkif;EdkifiHrSm
ododomom jzpfysufaeygw,f?
wcsdefu xdkif;[m a'owGif; tm;aumif;wJh EdkifiHjzpfcJhayr,fh tck jynfwGif;
EdkifiHa&;jy\emrsm;a=umifh wkwfudk wefjyefusm;uefEdkifr,fhtaetxm; enf;oxuf
enf;vmygw,f? rusef;rmwJhbk&if}uD;eJ@twl awmf0ifrdom;pk&J=oZm usonfxufus
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wnfaqmufvmygw,f? tar&dueftzd@k awmh tD&wfe@J tmz*efepPwefEpS Ef ikd if eH @J ysm,m
cwfaeordk@ wkwfajcvSrf;udk tmkHrpl;pdkufEdkifygbl;?
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vdkufvmygw,f?
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tif'dkeD;&Sm;usawmh wkwfudk usm;uefxm;zdk@twGuf tar&duefa&wyf
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tpPvmrfurBmu rsufrkef;usKd;rSmvnf; ylyef&wmrdk@ ESpfbuf=um; nyfaeygw,f?
rnfodk@qdkap ta&Sawmiftm&SrSm tar&duefyg0g vqkwf&ufawG a&muf
49

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50

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51

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&nf!Gef;
The Indian Ocean and the future of American Power by Robert D. Kaplan

52

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