Understanding

Vulnerability &
Risks: the Climate
Disaster Risk
Assessment
(CDRA)
Session 3B
Day 1

EnP. Priscella Mejillano

 Understanding Hazards, exposure,
vulnerability and Risks …

Hazard

2
 Understanding Hazards, exposure,
vulnerability and Risks …

Hazard

Exposed
sectors and
subsectors

3
 Understanding Hazards, exposure,
vulnerability and Risks …
Climate
Change
exacerbates
Hazard

Hazard

Exposed
sectors and
subsectors

4
 Understanding Hazards, exposure,
vulnerability and Risks …
Climate
Change
exacerbates
Hazard

Exposed
sectors and
subsectors

Threat

Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
5
 Understanding Hazards, exposure,
vulnerability and Risks …
Climate
Climate Projections: Change
Return Period exacerbates
is frequent Hazard

Consequence is severe

RISK Exposed
sectors and
subsectors

Threat

Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
6
 1. Process of studying risks of
exposed elements:
- POPULATION
- URBAN AREA
- NATURAL RESOURCES
(Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery
production areas)
- CRITICAL POINT FACILITIES
- LIFELINE INFRASTRUCTURE
2. Seeks to establish risk and
vulnerable areas by analyzing the hazard,
exposure, vulnerability/sensitivity and
adaptive capacities of the various
exposed elements, e.g. LED.
Is the LGU’s comparative advantage
challenged by climate change?

3. Identifies the priority decision

areas that need to be addressed Climate Disaster
Allow the identification of various Risk Assessment
disaster risk and climate change (CDRA)
adaptation and mitigation measures

For purposes of LCCAP formulation, CDRA is

captured into six (6) TASKS
Step 3a. 6 Tasks. Climate Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)
 Understanding Hazards, exposure,
vulnerability and Risks …

Which are the Decision Areas?

Climate
Climate Projections: Change
Return Period exacerbates
What are the technical findings?
is frequent Hazard

Consequence is severe

RISK Exposed
sectors and
subsectors
What are the implications?
What are the key issues and Challenges?
Threat

Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
9
 The Climate Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)

Mitigate…
Adapt…

Serves as the
methodology,
platform to help
LGUs define their
adaptation and
mitigation
10 actions
Defining the terms…
Disaster Risk Reduction
• aimed at minimizing human
vulnerability and disaster risk
to avoid (prevention) or to
limit (mitigation and
preparedness) the adverse
impacts of hazards
11
Climate Change Adaptation
• “the ADJUSTMENTS in ecological,
social, or economic systems in
response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli and their effects or
impacts. It refers to changes in
processes, practices, and structures
to moderate potential damages or
to benefit from opportunities
associated with climate change
Formulating the Enhanced LCCAP

• 4 Strategic
Planning
Questions

• 4 Modules
• 9 Steps
 * TASK 1
SUMMARY of CHANGES in Temperature 1. Gather information on climate
change projections
Scenario Mid-21st century End of the 21st
century 2. Characterize hazards and
produce hazard maps
RCP4.5 +0.9 to +1.9 +1.3 to +2.5 3. Compile information and records
of previous weather and climate-
related disasters
RCP8.5 +1.2 to +2.30 +2.5 to +4.1 4. Analyse climate change impacts
and hazards per ecosystem per
barangay
 * TASK 2
a. Identify the direct and
indirect impacts of climate
change. Impacts may come
in positive

b. Analyse CC impacts and

hazards of all the barangays
per ecosystem and shared
impacts and opportunities
from climate change.
* TASK 3
 *Task 3- Exposure Database
(Exposure, Sensitivity), Threat
Level and Adaptive Capacity

Activities

 Define the elements threatened by the impacts of climate

change and the main climate change threats.

 Determine level of exposure and level of sensitivity of

elements.

 Assess ability and resources to respond to climate change,

variability and extremes (adaptive capacity).
 * TASKS 4-6

Task 4a: Summarize CCVA

4b: Estimate Risks Estimation of Risks
CC Vulnerability Assessment
Very High
Making Sense of Existing Data: locations and flood hazards
Making Sense of Existing Data: locations and flood hazards
Making Sense of Existing Data: locations and flood hazards
City of Calamba, Laguna 25 Year Flood Hazard Map: An
Example

Source: LIPAD_Lidar Portal for Archiving and Distribution


3 levels of hazard:
Low Hazard: (YELLOW)
Height: 0.1m-0.5m
Medium Hazard (ORANGE)
Height: 0.5m-1.5m
High Hazard (RED)
Publication DateJune 11, 2017
Flood Hazard Map
Title: City of Calamba, Laguna
25 Year Flood Hazard Map
Abstract: shapefile, with a
resolution of 10 meters
- illustrates the inundation extents
in the area if the actual amount
of rain exceeds that of a 25 year-
rain return period.
- There is a 1/25 (4%) probability
of a flood with 25 year return
period occurring in a single year.
The Rainfall Intensity Duration
Frequency is 340.400mm.
https://lipad.dream.upd.edu.ph
 In LCCAP Formulation,
use/refer to other
assessment tools that can
support in the analysis

Example:

MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of

Climate Change) which assesses vulnerability of
households to food insecurity
Making Sense of
Existing Data:
- LGUs need to
validate (“ground
truth”)
- For return periods,
may refer to
records of previous
disasters
- Do FGDs and KIIs
Climate Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)

CDRA provides
processes with
corresponding tools
in making sense of
data available in
LGUs and use them
for prioritization
and decision-
making
* Key concepts and terms
Local Climate Change Action Planning
Climate change
- Attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere,
in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable periods.

PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014 (modified)

 *

Mainstreaming
The process by which climate risks are considered in
city plans, programs, activities and policies, and by
which adjustments are made to address the risks.
- helps to ensure that an LGU plans and policies are
not at odds with climate risks now and in the future
(modified from PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014).

PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014 (modified)

 *

Impact
An effect of climate change on the
structure or function of a city or town:
multi-sectoral (modified from PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014).

PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014 (modified)

 *

Exposure
What changes can already be observed, what will the climate
be like in the future: What, Where, Who, How Many
- considers both current and projected changes based on a
review of historic and current climate information (e.g.
precipitation, temperature, extreme weather events) and
projected climate scenarios.
- Identifies climate change hazards associated with the
change (drought, flooding, sea level rise, increased
frequency in storms),

PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014 (modified)

 *

Sensitivity
The degree to which exposed people, places,
institutions and sectors are impacted, either
positively or negatively, by climate change

How?

PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014 (modified)

 *

Adaptive capacity
The degree to which people, places, institutions and sectors
are able to adapt to climate change impacts.

- Typically indicates socio-economic and environmental

factors and local realities that enable a city or community
to adjust its system.

- May include climate conditions to become new

opportunities

PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014 (modified)

 *

Vulnerability
The degree to which people, places,
institutions and sectors are susceptible to,
and unable to cope with, climate change
impacts and hazards (modified from PFCC Toolkit, UN-
Habitat, 2014).

PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014 (modified)

 *

Risk
Potential loss of life , injury or
destroyed/damaged assets which could occur to a
system, society or a community in a specific
period of time.
- Determined probabilistically as a function of
hazard,
UN-ISDR exposure, vulnerability and capacity.
 *

Adaptation
- “The adjustments in ecological, social, or economic systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects
or impacts.”

- Changes in processes, practices and structures to moderate

potential damages or to benefit from opportunities associated
with climate change”.

- Does not mean that the negative impacts will be avoided, only
that they will be less destructive if planning had occurred.

PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014 (modified)

 *

Mitigation
Activities that help to reduce the rate or
magnitude of climate change by reducing
human-generated greenhouse gas emissions
or land use practices that contribute to
climate change (modified from PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014).

PFCC Toolkit, UN-Habitat, 2014 (modified)

What’s in Store Today until Thursday

22 Sessions/Lectures

8 Workshops

8 Group Presentations
Thank you

pbmejillano@gmail.com
0917-117-3930; 0920-982-3204