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Topic 2 - Project - Initiation
Topic 2 - Project - Initiation
Example 1: A company wishes to buy a machine for a four year project. The manager must choose between
project A and Project B proposed. Only one project can be selected. Which one should he select given
the data in the table below?
Year Cashflow Machine A (ZMW) Cashflow Machine B (ZMW)
0 (35,000) (35,000)
1 20,000 10,000
2 15,000 10,000
3 10,000 15,000
4 10,000 18,000
Payback period 2 years 3 years
Solution 1: From the table we can see that the payback period is 2 years for Project A and 3 years for Project B.
Based on this information, the Project Manager will select Project A if the payback period is the overriding
factor in the selection criteria.
Example 2: Given the situation in Example 2, which project should the project manager select?
Solution 2: The total gain for projects A and B is ZMW55,000 and ZMW53,000 respectively. The initial investment
is ZMW35,000 for both projects.
55,000 − 35,000
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐴 = = 𝑍𝑀𝑊5,000 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑚
4
53,000 − 35,000
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐵 = = 𝑍𝑀𝑊4,500 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑚
4
𝐾𝑅5,000
𝑅𝑂𝐼 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐴 = 𝑥100% =14.3%
𝐾𝑅35,000
𝐾𝑅4,500
𝑅𝑂𝐼 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐵 = 𝑥100% =12.9%
𝐾𝑅35,000
• Discounted Cash Flow Techniques - Net Present value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
This technique takes into account the time value of money. ZMW100,000 today will not have the same worth
or buying power of ZMW100,000 next year. ZMW100,000 today is better because of inflation and the cost of
goods will rise eroding the buying power of ZMW100,000 next year. The two methods commonly used to
discount are NPV and IRR. These methods, which we shall be looking at soon, enable the project manager to
compare two projects or more with different investment and cashflow profiles. Notice that Discounted Cashflow
is dependent on accurate forecast of the cashflows as well as accurate prediction of interest rates.
1
𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 = (1+𝑖)𝑛 where 𝑖 = 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒
NPV is a measure of the value or worth added by carrying out the project. Therefore, a positive NPV with a project
is considered to be good. Where there are several projects, preference is given to those projects with the highest
NPV.
Example 3: Assuming that the Project Manager in example 1 uses a 20% discount factor, which of the two projects
should he select?
Solution: Project A
Year Project cash flow (ZMW) Discount factor (20%) Present value (ZMW)
0 (35,000) 1 35,000
1 20,000 0.8333 16,666
2 15,000 0.6944 10,416
3 10,000 0.5787 5,787
4 10,000 0.4823 4,823
Total income 37,692
Expenditure 35,000
Total NPV 2,692
Solution: Project B
Year Project cash flow (KR) Discount factor (20%) Present value (KR)
0 (35,000) 1 35,000
1 10,000 0.8333 8,333
2 10,000 0.6944 6,944
3 15,000 0.5787 8,681
4 18,000 0.4823 8,681
Total income 32,639
Expenditure 35,000
Total NPV (2,361)
From the tables, the project manager will most likely select Project A with an NPV of ZMW2,692 instead of Project
B with an NPV of ZMW 2,361. Notice that NPV expresses profits in absolute terms. Sometimes it becomes necessary
to express profit in % terms and this is where the IRR becomes useful.
Example: Using the trial and error, which project between Project A and Project B would the project manager select?
Solution: Let’s begin with Project A: Since the NPV is positive we need to increment the DCF in small steps to get a
negative NPV. Increasing the DCF by 2%, we get the following
Project A
Year Project cash flow (ZMW) Discount factor (22%) Present value (ZMW)
0 (35,000) 1 35,000
1 20,000 0.8197 16,394
2 15,000 0.6718 10,079
3 10,000 0.5507 5,507
4 10,000 0.4514 4,514
Total income 36,494
Expenditure 35,000
Total NPV 1,494
The NPV is still positive, so we need to increase it further. Let’s try 24%. The values work out as shown the table
below.
Project A
Year Project cash flow (ZMW) Discount factor (24%) Present value (ZMW)
0 (35,000) 1 35,000
1 20,000 0.8065 16,130
2 15,000 0.6504 9,756
3 10,000 0.5245 5,245
4 10,000 0.4230 4,230
Total income 35,361
Expenditure 35,000
Total NPV 361
Again the NPV is still positive, so we need to increase it further. Let’s try 25%. The values work out as shown the
table below.
Project A
Year Project cash flow (ZMW) Discount factor (25%) Present value (ZMW)
0 (35,000) 1 35,000
1 20,000 0.8000 16,000
2 15,000 0.6400 9,600
3 10,000 0.5120 5,120
4 10,000 0.4096 4,096
Total income 34,816
Expenditure 35,000
Total NPV (184)
Finally the NPV is negative. So the IRR for Project A lies between 24% and 25%.
Solution: We continue with Project B. Since the NPV already negative it means we need to decrease the DCF in small
steps to get a positive NPV. Decreasing the DCF by 2%, we get the following
Project B
Year Project cash flow (KR) Discount factor (18%) Present value (KR)
0 (35,000) 1 35,000
1 10,000 0.8475 8,475
2 10,000 0.7182 7,182
3 15,000 0.6086 9,129
4 18,000 0.5158 9,284
Total income 34,070
Expenditure 35,000
Total NPV (930)
The NPV is still negative, so we need to decrease the DCF further, say to 17%. The values work out as shown in the
table below.
Project B
Year Project cash flow (ZMW) Discount factor (17%) Present value (ZMW)
0 (35,000) 1 35,000
1 10,000 0.8509 8,509
2 10,000 0.7397 7,397
3 15,000 0.6281 9,422
4 18,000 0.5401 9,722
Total income 35,050
Expenditure 35,000
Total NPV 050
At 17%, the NPV is now positive. This implies the IRR for Project B lies between 17% and 18%.
From the foregoing, the Project Manager is likely to select Project A since its IRR is higher than that of Project B.