Name – Rajat Kapoor

Roll No – S052

Programme- MBA EX 2022-2024

Campus – South Campus

Assignment NO -3

Subject – MBAEXE 8102 Data Analysis and Optimization

Professor – Amit Kumar Bardhan Sir

Exercise sheet
An appliance manufacturer maintains a repair center for its customers. Based on past
experience, 30% of all appliances sent in for repair have a mechanical problem, and 70%
have an electrical problem. If the problem is mechanical, 90% of the appliances can be
repaired and returned to the customer; in the remaining 10% of the cases the appliance must
be replaced with a new unit. If the problem is electrical, 60% can be repaired and returned to
the customer, with the remaining 40% being replaced with a new unit.

Facts About Question

Probability of Appliances having repair

Mechanical Problem P(M)– 30% | Electrical Problem P(E)– 70 %

Probability of Appliances Returned (RTN) or Replaced (REP)

Mechanical Problem Returned P(Mec-RTN)– 90% | Mechanical Problem Replaced P(Mec-REP)– 10 %

Electrical Problem Returned P(Elec-RTN)– 60% | Electrical Problem Replaced P(Elec-REP)– 40 %

P (M Mec-RTN) = (30/100)*(90*100)= .27

P (M Mec-REP) = (30/100)*(10*100)= .03

P (M Elec-RTN) = (70/100)*(60*100)= .42

P (M Elec-Rep) = (70/100)*(40*100)= .28

Question 1 – What percentage of all appliances sent to the repair centre are replaced (REP) with a new
unit?

Solution – As both are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events –

P (M Mec-REP) + P (M Elec-Rep) = .03+.28= .31 or 31 %

Question 2- If an appliance at the repair centre is selected at random and it needs to be replaced with
a new unit, what is the probability that the appliance has an electrical problem? (Round your
answer to 4 decimal places.)
Solution – If appliance is selected Randomly the probability of it needs to be replaced and with electrical problem is as
are calculated the solution is

P (M Elec-Rep) = (70/100)*(40*100)= .28 or 28%

On BiG Diwali Sale, an electronics store had both the jPhone92® and GalaxyS91TM phones

on sale. Both were very similar and popular products. Sales representatives found that about

63% of those customers that bought phones bought jPhones over the Galaxy. Of those

customers that bought the jPhone, about 23% of them bought the extended warranty; of those

that purchased the Galaxy phone, 14% bought the extended warranty.

Q3. Create a tree diagram illustrating this scenario.

Probability of Jphone92 = P (J) = .63

Probability of GalaxyS91TM = P (G)= .37

Probability of Extended Warranty = P (EW)

Probability of Extended Warranty = P (NEW)

Probability of Jphone92 with Extended Warranty = P (JEW)= (63/100)*(23/100)= .1449

Probability of Jphone92 with Non Extended Warranty = P (JNEW)= (63/100)*(77/100)= .4851

Probability of GalaxyS91TM with Extended Warranty = P (GEW)= (37/100)*(14/100)= .0581

Probability of GalaxyS91TM with Non Extended Warranty = P (GNEW)= (37/100)*(86/100)= .3182

Q4. Using the data provided, find the probability if a customer purchased an extended
warranty on a phone that they also bought an jPhone.
Solution – This is a problem of Conditional Probability

Probability of person bought Extended warranty on all phones –

= {Probability of Jphone92 with Extended Warranty (P (JEW) ) + Probability of GalaxyS91TM with Extended Warranty ( P
(GEW)) }

= {(63/100) *(23/100) } + { (37/100)*(14/100)}

= 0.1449+ 0.0581

=0.1967 or 19.67%

Probability of Jphone92 with Extended Warranty = P (JEW)= (63/100) *(23/100) = .1449

SO, Probability of person purchased an extended Warranty and also bought Jphone is =

Probability of Jphone92 with Extended Warranty/ Probability of person bought Extended warranty on all phones
= .1449/.1967= .736654= 73.6654%