1 SEPTEMBER 2015 WU ET AL.

6841

Patterns of Asian Winter Climate Variability and Links to Arctic Sea Ice

BINGYI WU AND JINGZHI SU

Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

ROSANNE D’ARRIGO
Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

(Manuscript received 11 April 2014, in final form 17 June 2015)

ABSTRACT

This paper describes two dominant patterns of Asian winter climate variability: the Siberian high (SH)
pattern and the Asia–Arctic (AA) pattern. The former depicts atmospheric variability closely associated with
the intensity of the Siberian high, and the latter characterizes the teleconnection pattern of atmospheric
variability between Asia and the Arctic, which is distinct from the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AA pattern
plays more important roles in regulating winter precipitation and the 850-hPa meridional wind component
over East Asia than the SH pattern, which controls surface air temperature variability over East Asia.
In the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas, sea ice loss in both autumn and winter could bring the positive
phase of the SH pattern or cause the negative phase of the AA pattern. The latter corresponds to a weakened
East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and enhanced winter precipitation in the midlatitudes of the Asian
continent and East Asia. For the SH pattern, sea ice loss in the prior autumn emerges in the Siberian marginal
seas, and winter loss mainly occurs in the Barents Sea, Labrador Sea, and Davis Strait. For the AA pattern, sea
ice loss in the prior autumn is observed in the Barents–Kara Seas, the western Laptev Sea, and the Beaufort
Sea, and winter loss only occurs in some areas of the Barents Sea, the Labrador Sea, and Davis Strait. Sim-
ulation experiments with observed sea ice forcing also support that Arctic sea ice loss may favor frequent
occurrence of the negative phase of the AA pattern. The results also imply that the relationship between
Arctic sea ice loss and winter atmospheric variability over East Asia is unstable, which is a challenge for
predicting the EAWM based on Arctic sea ice loss.

1. Introduction Europe. An example is the winter of 2011/12, when

During boreal winter, the strongest continental anti-
cyclone on Earth, known as the Siberian high (SH),
covers the Asian continent. Intense cooling of the air’s
surface layer and sinking motion induced by the mid-
and upper-level convergence contribute to an en-
hancement of the SH (Ding and Krishnamurti 1987;
Ding 1990). The SH strongly affects weather and
climate over Asia and parts of Europe. Outbreaks
of cold polar air westward from the SH pressure
cell cause occasional severe cold spells over areas of
Denotes Open Access content.
Corresponding author address: Bingyi Wu, Chinese Academy of
Meteorological Sciences, No. 46, Zhong-Guan-Cun South Avenue,
Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China.
E-mail: wby@cams.cma.gov.cn
more than 700 people died due to extreme cold con-
ditions. The SH is an important part of the East Asian
winter monsoon (EAWM) system. The EAWM is a
highly significant feature of Asia’s winter circulation,
closely associated with the development and south-
ward propagation of cold surges over East Asia
(Chang and Lau 1980; Ding 1990; Jhun and Lee 2004;
Wu et al. 2006).
Recent studies have shown a strengthening trend in
the SH over the past two decades (Jeong et al. 2011; Wu
et al. 2011). The corresponding winter surface air tem-
perature (SAT) exhibits a negative trend over the Asian
continent (Cohen et al. 2009, 2012; Wu et al. 2011).
Some regions of Eurasia have recently experienced ex-
ceptionally cold winters, such as in 2007/08, 2009/10,
2010/11, 2011/12, and 2012/13 (Fig. 1). It appears that
cold winters have become more frequent over East Asia.
It has been found that lower Arctic sea ice values from

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00274.1

Ó 2015 American Meteorological Society

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6842 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 28

FIG. 1. SAT anomalies (8C) for six recent winters, with the linear trend for 1979–2013 period removed (NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis 1 data).

the previous autumn to winter may contribute to cold
conditions over Eurasia and an enhanced SH, via large-
scale dynamic and thermal processes (Dethloff et al.
2006; Francis et al. 2009; Honda et al. 2009; Petoukhov
and Semenov 2010; Screen and Simmonds 2010;
Overland and Wang 2010; Wu et al. 1999, 2011; Francis
and Vavrus 2012; Liu et al. 2012; Jaiser et al. 2012;
Hopsch et al. 2012; Tang et al. 2013; Vihma 2014; Peings
and Magnusdottir 2014; Walsh 2014). Wu et al. (1999)
showed that variability in winter sea ice in the Barents–
Kara Seas is related to the intensity of the EAWM via
the Eurasian teleconnection pattern. This study in-
dicated that heavy sea ice in these seas excites the pos-
itive phase of the Eurasian pattern, with anomalously
low 500-hPa heights over Siberia and positive height
anomalies over East Asia. This pattern weakens the
East Asian trough and the intensity of the EAWM, and
decreases the frequency of cold air outbursts into China.
Opposite effects are observed during light sea ice con-
ditions in this area of the Arctic marginal seas
(Petoukhov and Semenov 2010; Inoue et al. 2012).
Based on simulation experiments with prescribed sea ice
forcing in the Barents–Kara Seas, Petoukhov and
Semenov (2010) suggested that sea ice loss may result in
strong anticyclonic anomalies over the Arctic Ocean,
leading to a continental-scale winter cooling, with more
than a threefold increased probability of cold winter
extremes over Eurasia. Inoue et al. (2012) showed that

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1 SEPTEMBER 2015 WU ET AL.
light sea ice conditions during winter in the Barents Sea
could lead to an anticyclonic anomaly over the Siberian
coast and cold advection over eastern Siberia.
Francis et al. (2009) and Honda et al. (2009) in-
dependently argued that summer or summer to autumn
sea ice can impact the atmosphere in the ensuing win-
tertime. Wu et al. (2011) showed that persistent autumn
to winter sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies in the
Barents–Kara Seas and the northern vicinity of these
seas, with concurrent sea surface temperature (SST)
anomalies, are responsible for the SH and SAT anom-
alies over the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia.
However, recent observations and simulation experi-
ments did not support significant impacts of Arctic sea
ice loss on the midlatitudes (Screen et al. 2014; Peings
and Magnusdottir 2014; Walsh 2014). On 16 September
2012, Arctic sea ice reached its minimum extent for the
year, of 3.41 million square kilometers. This is the lowest
seasonal minimum extent in the satellite record since
1979. However, in the ensuing winter (2012/13), the
strength of the SH was nearly normal. Additionally, in
the winter of 2006/07, a weakened SH (its standard de-
viation was below 21.0) corresponded to a negative SIC
anomaly in the previous September (see Fig. 2 of Wu
et al. 2011). These two cases imply that autumn sea ice
loss does not always correspond to a strengthened SH
(or enhanced EAWM). Indeed, in addition to Arctic sea
ice, there are many factors that influence the SH, such as
Eurasian snow cover (Cohen et al. 2012) and internal
atmospheric variability. On the other hand, atmospheric
circulation variability showed different regimes in the
two abovementioned winters (see section 3 below).
Thus, it is impossible to predict dominant patterns of
winter atmospheric variability over the Asian continent
in terms of a single external factor. The motivation of
the present study is to explore dominant patterns of
winter atmospheric variability over Asia and their pos-
sible linkages with Arctic sea ice loss. Our study dem-
onstrates that Arctic sea ice loss also promotes the
weakening of the EAWM.
2. Data and methods
The following datasets were used: 1) the Arctic SIC
dataset (18 3 18) from January 1979 to May 2013, ob-
tained from the British Atmospheric Data Centre
(BADC; http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/hadisst/); 2) the
monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP), SAT, winds,
and geopotential heights from January 1979 to March
2013, obtained from NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis 1; 3)
monthly mean global land precipitation data from 1979
to 2013 (http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/50yr/gauge/
2.5deg/format_bin/; Chen et al. 2002); and 4) the
6843
monthly mean Arctic Oscillation (AO) index for the
period from 1979 to May 2013 (http://www.cpc.ncep.
noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.
ao.index.b50.current.ascii).
Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was
performed on winter [December–February (DJF)]
mean SLP. The Monte Carlo method was applied to
examine statistical field significance, as in Livezey and
Chen (1983). For an anomalous field derived from linear
regression, the percentage of grid points that are statis-
tically significant at 0.05 (0.01) level is first identified
over a domain. This process is then repeated 1000 times
with different series of 34 (or 34 winters from 1979 to
2013) numbers randomly selected from a normal dis-
tribution. The anomalous field is deemed significant
if the percentage of significant grid points exceeds
that derived from 1000 experimental replications.
Additionally, a Student’s t test was used to assess the
statistical significance of atmospheric changes between
different phases.
Additionally, the ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al. 2003)
model (T63 spectral resolution and 19 pressure levels)
was applied to explore the impacts of SIC on the model
atmosphere. A simulation was performed with observed
monthly SIC in the Northern Hemisphere from January
1978 to November 2012 (419 months) as the external
forcing, while the SIC in the Southern Hemisphere and
global SST were prescribed as their climatological
monthly mean. The SST and SIC data were obtained
through a spatially interpolation of observations taken
from the BADC (http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/hadisst/);
for detailed information, refer to the Atmospheric
Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) phase II SST
and SIC boundary condition dataset (http://www-pcmdi.llnl.
gov/projects/amip/AMIP2EXPDSN/BCS/bcsintro.php).
This experiment was repeated with 40 different atmo-
spheric initial conditions that were derived from a 50-yr
control run. In regions where the SIC changes year to
year, the SST was prescribed as its climatological value,
unlike in Screen et al. (2014). In this study, all linear
trends in the original data were first removed before
performing EOF, regression, and composite differential
analyses.
3. Two dominant patterns and their impacts
This study focuses on winter (DJF) SLP variability in
the middle and high latitudes in order to reveal domi-
nant patterns of winter atmospheric variability over the
Asian continent. EOF analysis was applied to the nor-
malized area-weighted winter mean SLP data (after
detrending) over 308–708N, 808–1208E and for 34 winters
from 1979 to 2013. This domain contains the core region
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FIG. 2. (a) Regression map of detrended winter mean SLP, regressed on the normalized PC1 of EOF analysis of
detrended winter mean SLP variability over 308–708N, 808–1208E (outlined in green); the yellow (light blue) and red
(blue) areas indicate positive (negative) SLP anomalies at 0.05 and 0.01 significance levels, respectively. (b)–(d) As in
(a), but for detrended winter 500-hPa height, SAT, and 850-hPa meridional wind components, respectively; contour
intervals are 0.5 hPa in (a), 10 gpm in (b), 18C in (c), and 0.3 m s21 in (d).

of the SH where the regionally averaged winter SLP
over 408–608N, 808–1208E is used as the SH index (SHI)
to characterize the intensity of the SH (Wu and
Wang 2002).
The first two EOFs (EOF1 and EOF2) respectively
account for 50% and 26% of the variance. For the
leading EOF, Figs. 2a–d show anomalies in winter mean
SLP, 500-hPa height, SAT, and 850-hPa meridional
wind components, derived from linear regressions on
the normalized leading principal component (PC1). In
the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, winter SLP
anomalies show a monopole structure, with the positive
center located over the Ural Mountains, indicating a
strengthened SH (Fig. 2a). Meanwhile, negative SLP
anomalies are seen in the middle and low latitudes of the
Asian continent. Winter mean 500-hPa height anoma-
lies show a triple structure: the center of positive height
anomalies is over the Kara Sea, and two negative centers
are located over Europe and northeastern Asia. Thus,
Fig. 2b indicates a westward shifted and strengthened
500-hPa East Asian trough. Height anomalies here
closely resemble those in Jung et al. (2014; see their
Fig. 3), who investigated the impact of the Arctic on
winter 500-hPa height in the midlatitudes. Negative
SAT anomalies over most of East Asia are dynamically
consistent with the strengthened SH and deepened East

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1 SEPTEMBER 2015 WU ET AL. 6845

FIG. 3. Normalized time series of the detrended winter SHI (red line) and the PC1s of EOF
analyses of detrended winter mean SLP variability over four different domains: 308–708N, 808–
1208E (green); 308–708N, 508–1308E (blue); 308–808N, 508–1308E (black); and 208–708N, 608–
1308E (purple).

Asian trough (Fig. 2c). Meanwhile, positive SAT
anomalies cover the Arctic. Consequently, Figs. 2a–c
characterize atmospheric circulation anomalies associ-
ated with the SH, supported by the correlation between
the PC1 and the detrended SHI (r 5 0.95; see Fig. 3).
This systematic atmospheric circulation anomaly is
herein termed the SH pattern. The 850-hPa meridional
wind anomalies, however, do not exceed the level of
statistical significance over eastern China south of 308N
(Fig. 2d). Strengthened northerlies are seen over the
area from Lake Baikal extending southeastward to the
northwestern Pacific. When accompanied by a strength-
ened SH, weak southerly anomalies emerge over parts
of southern China. The SH pattern mainly reflects large-
scale meridional circulation anomalies over the middle
and high latitudes.
The same analysis process was carried out over three
different domains: 1) 308–708N, 508–1308E, 2) 308–808N,
508–1308E, and 3) 208–708N, 608–1308E. The leading
EOFs over the three domains respectively account for
46%, 46%, and 44% of the variance. Corresponding
winter SLP, 500-hPa height, SAT, and 850-hPa meridi-
onal wind anomalies, derived from linear regressions on
their PC1s, closely resemble those shown in Figs. 2a–d (not
shown). Their PC1s are significantly correlated with the
detrended SHI, with correlations of 0.90, 0.75, and 0.81,
respectively (Fig. 3).
For EOF2, the amplitudes of both positive SLP and
500-hPa height anomalies are weaker than those for
EOF1 (Figs. 4a,b). Positive SLP anomalies appear over
most of the Asian continent south of 508N, with
moderate negative anomalies in the north. Negative
SLP and 500-hPa height anomalies mainly appear in
the Arctic and northern North Pacific, making this
pattern distinct from the positive phase of the AO. In
fact, the correlation between EOF2 and the detrended
AO is 0.28 (0.44) for winters of 1979/80–2008/09 (win-
ters of 1979/80–2012/13). Positive SAT anomalies are
observed in the middle and high latitudes of the Asian
continent, with negative SAT anomalies to the south
(Fig. 4c). Such a spatial distribution of SAT anomalies
is dynamically consistent with that for the SLP anom-
alies. Significant anomalies in 850-hPa meridional
winds are observed in East Asia, particularly in eastern
and northeastern China (Fig. 4d).
The second EOFs over the three domains (308–708N,
508–1308E; 308–808N, 508–1308E; and 208–708N, 608–
1308E) respectively account for 22%, 23%, and 22% of
the variance. Anomalies in detrended winter SLP,
500-hPa height, SAT, and 850-hPa meridional winds,
derived from linear regressions on their PC2s, closely
resemble those shown in Figs. 4a–d for the domain 308–
808N, 508–1308E, but with anomalies of opposing sign for
the other domains (not shown). For two domains (308–
708N, 508–1308E and 208–708N, 608–1308E), the PC2 time
series are out of phase with that for 308–708N, 808–1208E
(Fig. 5); their correlations are 20.95 and 20.90, re-
spectively. Over the domains 308–708N, 808–1208E and
308–808N, 508–1308E, the PC2 time series are in phase
(Fig. 5; their correlation is 0.84). Although the domains
are different for EOF analysis, the atmospheric circu-
lation anomalies associated with EOF2s exhibit similar

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6846 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
FIG. 4. As in Fig. 2, but regressed on the normalized PC2 of EOF analysis of detrended winter mean SLP variability
over 308–708N, 808–1208E [outlined by green lines in (a)]. Contour intervals are 0.5 hPa in (a), 5 gpm in (b), 0.58C in
(c), and 0.3 m s21 in (d).
features over Asia and the Arctic. Thus, this systematic
circulation anomaly is herein termed the Asia–Arctic
(AA) pattern. The AA pattern predominantly exhibits
large-scale zonal circulation anomalies, differing from
the SH pattern. Because the intensity of the SH is closely
related to the EAWM variability (Jhun and Lee 2004;
Wu et al. 2006), the extracted leading SLP pattern
should characterize SH variability as accurately as pos-
sible. If we selected a domain that covers more area of
the Arctic Ocean, the correlation between the leading
SLP pattern and the detrended SHI would decline.
Consequently, the first two PCs of EOF analysis over
308–708N, 808–1208E can be regarded as indices that
depict the SH and AA patterns, respectively. It should
be pointed out that the SH and AA pattern well
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represent the first two coupled patterns between winter
mean SLP over Eurasia (308–708N, 508–1308E) and any
meridional vertical cross section of zonal winds over the
Asian continent (extracted by the maximum covariance
analysis; not shown). Thus, neither of the SH and AA
patterns relies on the EOF method. They reflect differ-
ent dynamic regimes, namely large-scale meridional and
zonal circulation anomalies.
The regionally averaged winter 850-hPa meridional
wind over eastern China (308–408N, 1108–1208E) is sig-
nificantly correlated with the AA pattern (r 5 20.56;
after removing linear trends, the correlation is 20.60,
at 0.01 significance level). In contrast to the AA pattern,
the SH pattern does not show a significant relationship
with the regionally averaged 850-hPa meridional wind
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FIG. 5. Normalized PC2s of EOF analyses of detrended winter mean SLP variability over
four different domains: 308–708N, 808–1208E (green); 308–708N, 508–1308E (blue; multiplied by
21.0); 308–808N, 508–1308E (black); and 208–708N, 608–1308E (purple, multiplied by 21.0).

(r 5 20.20 after detrending). At the surface, however,
the regionally averaged meridional wind (at 10 m) over
29.528–40.958N, 110.6258–1208E is significantly corre-
lated with the SH and AA patterns after detrending
at 20.51 and 20.57, respectively. This implies that
compared with the SH pattern, the AA pattern shows a
closer relationship with the EAWM.
To investigate dynamical connections to Arctic atmo-
sphere variability, we first selected positive and negative
phase winters for which their standard deviations are .0.8
or ,20.8, as shown in Table 1. We selected the latitude–
pressure vertical cross section at 1108E to show wave ac-
tivity fluxes (Fig. 6). In the middle and high troposphere
south of 758N, the wave activity fluxes show coherent
propagations southward to 458N, reflecting a dynamical
linkage between the Arctic and the midlatitudes of East
Asia (Fig. 6a). In the Arctic north of 758N, the wave ac-
tivity fluxes propagate northward over nearly the entire
troposphere. For the AA pattern, southward propagation
is mainly observed between 408 and 658N (Fig. 6b), in-
dicating that sub-Arctic atmospheric variability is directly
linked with that over the midlatitudes of East Asia via
atmospheric energy propagations. Over the Arctic, the
wave activity fluxes display northward propagations. At
500 hPa, the wave activity fluxes originated from the
Barents–Kara Seas propagate southeastward to the high
latitudes of the Asian continent, and then propagate
northeastward to the Arctic Ocean (Fig. 6c). Another
branch propagates to the northwestern Pacific.
Figure 7 shows the latitude–pressure vertical cross
section of westerly anomalies associated with the SH
and AA patterns along 1108E. Relative to the negative
phase of the SH pattern, its positive phase corresponds
to a strengthened westerly jet in the higher troposphere
(Fig. 7a) (the center of the westerly jet at 1108E is
around 308N and 200 hPa; not shown). Meanwhile, over
the middle and high latitudes, westerly winds are
weakened significantly. Consequently, weakened west-
erlies over the middle and high latitudes favor cold air
accumulation and outbreaks southward from the Arctic
and high latitudes, which enhance strength of both of the
SH and the East Asian trough (Figs. 2a,b), leading to
negative SAT anomalies over East Asia (Fig. 2c), and
vice versa for its negative phase. For the AA pattern,
amplitudes of westerly anomalies are apparently weaker
relative to the SH pattern (Fig. 7a) and coherently shift
northward (Fig. 7b). Relative to the positive phase of the
AA pattern, its negative phase corresponds to
strengthened westerlies between 358 and 558N, with
weakened westerlies on both sides. The spatial distri-
bution of westerly anomalies from 408 to 808N is dy-
namically consistent with negative height anomalies in
the middle and high latitudes in Fig. 6b. Weakened
tropospheric westerlies over the high latitudes of the
Asian continent favor Arctic cold air into the Asian
continent and accumulation, resulting in positive SLP
anomalies over the northern Asian continent (as in
Figs. 4a,c, but with opposing sign). Meanwhile,
strengthened tropospheric westerlies between 358 and
558N obstruct cold air accumulation and outbreaks
southward from the midlatitudes, leading to positive
SAT and negative SLP anomalies over the middle and

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6848 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
TABLE 1. Winter cases with standard deviations .0.8 (positive phase) or ,20.8 (negative phase). Boldface indicates winters with both the
SH and AA patterns.
Pattern Positive phase
SH 1980/81, 1983/84, 1984/85, 1985/86, 2004/05, 2005/06,
and 2011/12
AA 1982/83, 1983/84, 1994/95, 1995/96, 1999/2000, 2001/02,
2007/08, and 2011/12
low latitudes of the Asian continent. Opposite anoma-
lous fields are observed for the positive phase of the AA
pattern.
Impacts of the two atmospheric patterns on winter
precipitation differ, as shown in Fig. 8. The positive
phase of the SH pattern causes decreases in winter
precipitation over most of the Asian continent, partic-
ularly in the low latitudes east of 808E, whereas in-
creased precipitation is mainly observed in some areas
of the midlatitudes and the Russian Far East (Fig. 8a).
The AA pattern has more substantial impacts on winter
precipitation than the SH pattern (Fig. 8b). Compared
with the positive phase of the AA pattern, its negative
phase significantly enhances precipitation over East
Asia and central Asia. Enhanced precipitation is dy-
namically consistent with 500-hPa height anomalies in
Fig. 6c. Negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the
middle and high latitudes of Asia and positive height
anomalies over the northwestern and northern Pacific
favor increased precipitation between them. Mean-
while, decreased precipitation emerges in the high lati-
tudes and between 708 and 1108E south of 408N.
4. Possible associations with sea ice loss in autumn
and winter
Both the SH and AA patterns are associated with
Arctic SIC anomalies in the prior autumn [September–
November (SON)] to winter (DJF) (Fig. 9). For the SH
pattern, decreased autumn SIC is observed in the Sibe-
rian marginal seas (Fig. 9a), particularly from the
northern Barents Sea across to the Kara Sea, extending
eastward to the Laptev Sea and the Pacific part of the
Arctic Ocean. In winter, negative SIC anomalies are
mainly observed in the Greenland–Barents–Kara Seas,
the Labrador Sea, and Davis Strait (Fig. 9b), dynami-
cally consistent with the spatial distribution of winter
surface wind anomalies (not shown). Wu et al. (2011)
suggested that the regionally averaged (76.58–83.58N,
60.58–149.58E) September SIC is significantly correlated
with the ensuing winter SIC averaged over the Barents–
Kara Seas (67.58–80.58N, 20.58–80.58E) during the pe-
riod from 1979 to 2010 (r 5 0.66; correlation is 0.52 after
detrending). Thus, the regionally averaged September
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Negative phase
1988/89, 1991/92, 1992/93, 1996/97, 1997/98, 2003/04,
and 2006/07
1984/85, 1989/90, 2000/01, 2004/05, 2008/09, 2009/10,
and 2012/13
SIC is a potential precursor for the ensuing winter SH
that cannot be predicted using tropical SSTs alone [their
correlation was 20.6 after detrending; see Fig. 2 of Wu
et al. (2011)]. An enhanced SH is associated with per-
sistent SIC negative anomalies from autumn to winter,
and previous observations and simulation experiments
support this association (Honda et al. 2009; Petoukhov
and Semenov 2010; Wu et al. 1999; Liu et al. 2012; Inoue
et al. 2012; Rinke et al. 2013; Jung et al. 2014).
For the negative phase of the AA pattern, negative
SIC anomalies in the previous autumn are observed in
some areas: the Barents–Kara Seas, the western Laptev
Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Beaufort Sea
(Fig. 9c). In winter, increased SIC in the Greenland Sea
and southeastern Barents Sea is concurrent with de-
creased SIC in the Labrador Sea, Davis Strait, and some
areas of the Barents Sea (Fig. 9d), unlike in Fig. 9b.
Amplitudes and extents of SIC anomalies associated
with the AA pattern are smaller relative to the SH
pattern. Linear regression analyses further verify the
associations between the two atmospheric patterns and
previous autumn SIC anomalies (not shown).
In the data and methods section, simulation experi-
ments forced by SIC forcing were introduced. Here we
examine simulated winter atmospheric responses
(Figs. 10 and 11) and corresponding autumn and winter
SIC anomalies (Fig. 12). Data used here are original
model output and SIC data rather than detrended data.
Figure 10 shows differences in simulated winter mean
atmospheric circulation between the positive and neg-
ative phases of the SH pattern during the period from
1978 to 2012. It is seen that positive SLP anomalies are
mainly observed over the Arctic, much of North
America, and the Tibetan Plateau, and significant neg-
ative SLP anomalies emerge over East Asia and the
Russian Far East (Fig. 10a). At 500 hPa, positive geo-
potential height anomalies appear over the Arctic and
are surrounded by negative anomalies (Fig. 10b). A
shifted northward and deepened East Asian trough
emerge over the East Asian coast, with positive height
anomalies over the midlatitudes of the Asian continent
and the northwestern Pacific sector. Significant positive
SAT anomalies are mainly confined to the high lati-
tudes, and positive SAT anomalies occupy most of
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FIG. 6. (a) Differences in detrended mean geopotential heights between the positive and
negative phases of the SH pattern along the latitude–pressure cross section at 1108E, super-
imposed on meridional and vertical (multiplied by 0.05) wave activity flux (vectors; m2 s22) of
Takaya and Nakamura (2001); light blue and blue areas indicate geopotential height differ-
ences at 0.05 and 0.01 significance levels, respectively. (b) As in (a), but for differences in
detrended mean geopotential heights between the negative and positive phases of the AA
pattern. (c) Differences in detrended mean geopotential heights between the negative and
positive phases of the AA pattern at 500 hPa; contour intervals are 20 gpm; composite winter
cases for the SH and AA patterns are shown in Table 1 (nonboldface winters).

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6850 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 28

FIG. 7. (a) Differences in detrended mean westerly flows (m s21) between the positive and
negative phases of the SH pattern along the latitude–pressure cross section at 1108E. (b) As in
(a), but for differences in detrended mean westerly flows between the negative and positive
phases of the AA pattern; the composite cases for the SH and AA patterns and meanings for
the color areas are as in Fig. 6

Eurasia except for some areas of northern Eurasia and
the Tibetan Plateau where negative SAT anomalies are
visible (Fig. 10c). Thus, simulated winter atmospheric
circulation and SAT anomalies indicate a weakened
EAWM; to a great extent, they capture major charac-
teristics of the negative phase of the AA pattern as
shown in Fig. 4, but with opposing sign.
Figure 11 shows simulated differences between the
negative and positive phases of the AA pattern. Signif-
icant positive SLP anomalies emerge over the Arctic
and Siberia (Fig. 11a), and positive 500-hPa height
anomalies appear over northern Eurasia and the Arctic,
with concurrent negative height anomalies over Europe,
East Asia, and the northern North Pacific, implying a
strengthened East Asian trough (Fig. 11b). At the sur-
face, positive SAT anomalies are observed over the
Arctic and negative SAT anomalies occupy much of
Eurasia, particularly over the central Asian continent
and East Asia, where significant negative SAT anoma-
lies are observed (Fig. 11c). Thus simulated atmospheric
circulation anomalies, to a great extent, reflect the
positive phase of the SH pattern rather than the AA
pattern.
A stronger atmospheric response is seen in Fig. 11 rel-
ative to that in Fig. 10, indicated by amplitudes and ex-
tents of both of positive SLP and 500-hPa height
anomalies. Differences in mean SIC forcing may be re-
sponsible for different atmospheric responses. It is seen
that although SIC data used in Figs. 9a,b and 12a,b are
derived from the BADC (http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/
hadisst/) their differences are visible, particularly in the
prior autumn, due mainly to detrended data used in Fig. 9.
In Fig. 12a, negative SIC anomalies are mainly observed
in from the Barents Sea eastward to the Laptev Sea, and
positive SIC anomalies emerge from the East Siberian Sea
eastward to the Beaufort Sea. Nearly opposite SIC
anomalies are seen in part of the Laptev Sea eastward to
the Beaufort Sea and the Arctic Ocean (Fig. 12c). The
area with SIC anomalies #25.0% is approximately
2.20 3 106 km2 in Fig. 12a and less than 3.04 3 106 km2 in
Fig. 12c. Thus, compared to Fig. 12a, SIC anomalies in
Fig. 12c correspond to more heating released to the

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1 SEPTEMBER 2015 WU ET AL. 6851

FIG. 8. (a) Anomalous winter precipitation percentages, derived from differences in de-
trended winter mean precipitation between the positive and negative phases of the SH pattern
divided by the winter mean precipitation averaged over the past 34 winters from 1979 to 2013;
thin (dashed thin) and thick (dashed thick) purple contours indicate positive (negative) pre-
cipitation differences exceeding 0.05 and 0.01 significance levels, respectively. (b) As in (a), but
differences in detrended winter mean precipitation between the negative and positive phases of
the AA pattern; composite cases are listed in Table 1 (nonboldface winters).

atmosphere from the ocean, which enhances the feedback
of sea ice loss on the winter atmosphere. Thus, simulated
strengthening of SH (Fig. 11) is reasonable. Above ana-
lyses demonstrate that Arctic sea ice loss could either
bring the positive phase of the SH pattern or produce the
negative phase of the AA pattern, which corresponds to a
weakened EAWM. Thus, it is a challenge to predict
EAWM based on Arctic sea ice loss. Additionally, simu-
lation results also show that Arctic sea ice loss also favors
occurrences of cold winters in North America.
On the other hand, very weak differences in simu-
lated winter SLP and 500-hPa height indicate low co-
herency of model results, and simulated time series of
the SHI averaged over the 40 experiments are strictly
confined to a very narrow range of 1029–1031 hPa
(Fig. 13a; the observed SHI range was 1026.8–
1033.5 hPa from 1979 to 2013). The simulated standard
deviation of the SHI ranges from 1.1 to 2.1 hPa
(Fig. 13b). Such low coherency reflects the com-
bined effects of large internal variability and model

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6852 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 28

FIG. 9. Differences in detrended mean SIC between the positive and negative phases of the SH pattern in (a) the
previous autumn (SON) and (b) winter (DJF). (c),(d) As in (a),(b), but for differences between the negative and
positive phases of the AA pattern; green contours denote SIC differences at 0.05 significance level. The composite
cases for the SH and AA patterns are shown in Table 1 (nonboldface winters).

uncertainties. Screen et al. (2014) also suggested that
SLP and height responses are hard to detect and may be
partially or totally masked by atmospheric internal
variability. Additionally, the atmospheric response to
sea ice loss may depend on the state of the atmosphere
(Balmaseda et al. 2010).
It is seen that simulated SLP and 500-hPa height
anomalies exhibit a quasi-barotropic structure over the
Arctic (Figs. 10 and 11). This differs from the response
of winter atmosphere to SIC loss in Screen et al. (2014)
and Peings and Magnusdottir (2014) where a baroclinic
response was evident over the Arctic Ocean. Screen
et al. (2014) discussed possible reasons for the existence
of negative winter SLP anomalies over the Arctic in
response to sea ice loss, which differs from previous
results (Alexander et al. 2004; Francis et al. 2009; Liu
et al. 2012). They suggested that ensemble member
numbers and prescription of SIC forcing in simulation
experiments may be the reason for negative SLP
anomalies in response to SIC loss.
Prior researchers discussed possible mechanisms for
the impact of Arctic sea ice on the atmosphere: a de-
creased autumn Arctic sea ice would lead to an in-
tensified heat loss from the ocean and a stronger

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1 SEPTEMBER 2015 WU ET AL. 6853

FIG. 10. (a) Simulated differences in winter mean SLP between positive and negative phases of the SH pattern (see
Table 1, nonboldface winters), derived from 40 experiments, thus positive and negative phases contain 120 and 280
winters, respectively; thin (dashed thin) and thick (dashed thick) purple contours denote positive (negative) SLP
anomalies at 0.05 and 0.01 significance levels, respectively. (b),(c) As in (a), but for winter 500-hPa height and SAT
differences, respectively; contour intervals are 0.2 hPa in (a), 2 gpm in (b), and 0.28C in (c).

heating effect to the overlying atmosphere, which
would strengthen atmospheric baroclinicity and in-
stability (Alexander et al. 2004; Jaiser et al. 2012;
Porter et al. 2012). As the seasons progress, through a
negative feedback process, baroclinic atmospheric
processes diminish and barotropic interactions in-
tensify, resulting in winter positive SLP and 500-hPa
height anomalies over the high latitudes and the Arctic
(Alexander et al. 2004; Deser et al. 2004, 2007;
Magnusdottir et al. 2004; Jaiser et al. 2012; Wu et al.
2011; Walsh 2014), favoring a strengthened SH (the
positive phase of the SH pattern). Additionally, Arctic
sea ice loss in both autumn and winter would decrease
the thermal gradient between the Arctic and the
middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, leading to
weakened westerlies in winter (Francis and Vavrus
2012; see Fig. 4 of Wu et al. 2011) and favoring cold air
outbreaks southward from the Arctic. This is the
possible mechanism responsible for the association
between the SH pattern and Arctic sea ice loss. The
similar mechanism may be at work for the linkage
between the AA pattern and Arctic sea ice loss.

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6854 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 28

FIG. 11. As in Fig. 10, but for the AA pattern (see Table 1, nonboldface winters and excluding the winter of 2012/13),
derived from 40 experiments, thus negative and positive phases contain 160 and 240 winters, respectively.

Additionally, the simulated wave activity flux induced
by sea ice loss also supports the dynamical connection
between the Arctic and Asia (not shown). Recent
studies, however, suggested that although sea ice loss
affects atmospheric variability at northern midlati-
tudes, results show big differences in the magnitude,
timing, and spatial extent of these effects (e.g., Vihma
2014). In addition to the state of the atmosphere
(Balmaseda et al. 2010), differences in the magnitude
and extent of SIC anomalies in Fig. 12 may be one of
the reasons for different remote responses, supported
by Petoukhov and Semenov (2010). We have not ex-
plored possible mechanisms for the impact of SIC loss
on the SH and AA patterns herein because they are
beyond the scope of the present study.
In the late 1990s, the Arctic surface wind fields ex-
perienced an interdecadal shift in both spring (April–
June) and summer (July–September). An anomalous
cyclone prevailed before 1997 and was then replaced
by an anomalous anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean,
which was consistent with the rapid decline in trend of
September sea ice extent (Wu et al. 2012). Autumn
Arctic SIC also experienced an interdecadal shift in
the late 1990s, which is one of the possible reasons for
interdecadal variability of winter SAT in East Asia
(Yang and Wu 2013). Although the two AA patterns,

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1 SEPTEMBER 2015 WU ET AL. 6855

FIG. 12. Differences in mean SIC in the forced model simulation between the positive and negative phases of the
SH pattern in (a) the previous autumn (SON) and (b) winter (DJF). (c),(d) As in (a),(b), but for differences between
the negative and positive phases of the AA pattern. The composite cases for the SH and AA patterns are same as
those in Figs. 10 and 11, respectively.

derived respectively from the detrended and original
winter mean SLP data over the same domain, are
highly correlated (0.94; 0.99 after detrending), their
low-frequency evolutions are different (Fig. 14). The
AA pattern derived from the original data showed an
interdecadal shift more clearly in the late 1990s. It is
seen that positive phases of the low-frequency oscil-
lations (.11 yr) were dominant before the winter of
1998/99 and were then replaced by frequent negative
phases. This interdecadal shift was also reflected in a
7-yr running mean time series of the AA pattern. Since
2007 autumn SIC has maintained negative anomalies
in the Arctic Ocean and Siberian marginal seas (not
shown), favoring the occurrence of the negative phase
of the AA pattern.
5. Conclusions and discussion
Using EOF analysis of winter mean SLP variability over
the Asian continent, we have described two dominant
patterns of winter atmospheric variability: the SH and AA
patterns, which account for 76% of the variance over 308–
708N, 808–1208E. The SH pattern depicts well the domi-
nant features of winter atmospheric circulation variability
closely associated with the intensity of SH. The positive
phase of the SH pattern corresponds to a systematic

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6856 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 28

FIG. 13. (a) Time series of the simulated winter SHI (hPa) averaged over 40 experiments (solid
blue line); dashed blue and red lines denote a mean of the simulated winter SHI averaged over the
past 34 winters from 1978 to 2012 and 5-yr running means of the simulated winter SHI, respectively.
(b) The standard deviation time series of the simulated winter SHI derived from 40 experiments.

strengthening of both the SH and East Asian trough,
leading to negative SAT anomalies over East Asia, and
vice versa for its negative phase. Decreased autumn Arctic
SIC along the Siberian marginal seas, particularly in the
northern Barents–Kara Seas and the Pacific area of the
Arctic Ocean, provides favorable external forcing for
generating the positive phase of this pattern.
The AA pattern features a teleconnection pattern of
atmospheric variability between Asia and the Arctic.
The positive phase of the AA pattern describes positive
SLP anomalies south of 558N and negative SLP anom-
alies in the high latitudes and the Arctic, corresponding
to a strengthened EAWM, and SAT anomalies with
opposing sign emerge over the Asian continent. The AA
pattern is more important than the SH pattern in regu-
lating winter precipitation and the 850-hPa meridional
wind component over East Asia. The negative phase of
the AA pattern may be associated with decreased au-
tumn Arctic SIC in the Barents–Kara Seas, the western
Laptev Sea, and the Beaufort Sea. Simulation experi-
ments with observed SIC forcing also support that
Arctic sea ice loss could bring the positive phase of the
SH pattern or produce the negative phase of the AA
pattern, which corresponds to a weakened EAWM.
Recently, the two dominant patterns have alternately
occurred to influence East Asia. It appears that the AA
pattern has become more frequent recently. Simulation
experiments also indicate that Arctic sea ice loss favors
occurrences of cold winters in North America.
This study has described a statistical association be-
tween Arctic SIC loss and the AA pattern, although
physical details of their association need to be further
investigated. Additionally, factors such as SSTs in the
North Atlantic and subarctic seas and Eurasian snow
cover also play roles in regulating East Asian winter
climate variability (Li 2004; Peng et al. 2003; Cohen et al.
2012; Walsh 2014), and their relative contributions also
warrant further study. The results herein imply that
autumn Arctic sea ice loss plays an important role in
regulating winter climate variability over East Asia.
Acknowledgments. The authors are grateful to all
anonymous reviewers for their insight and constructive
suggestions, which helped to significantly improve this

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1 SEPTEMBER 2015 WU ET AL. 6857

FIG. 14. (a) The low-frequency oscillation (.11 yr) time series of the AA pattern (derived
from detrended data; blue line), derived from a harmonic analysis; the red line is a 7-yr running
mean time series of the AA pattern. (b) As in (a), but the AA pattern was derived from the
original winter mean SLP data. Units are arbitrary.

paper. The authors thank the British Atmospheric Data
Centre (BADC), NCEP–NCAR, and the NOAA/Climate
Prediction Center for providing sea ice concentration
data, atmospheric reanalysis data, and the global land
precipitation data and AO index. This study was sup-
ported by the National Key Basic Research Project of
China (2013CBA01804 and 2015CB453200), the Na-
tional Natural Science Foundation of China (41475080,
41221064), and State Oceanic Administration Project
(201205007).
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