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FM02 Banks 0820
FM02 Banks 0820
Financial Markets
02: Financial Institutions II: Banks
1 Sem1 AY2022/23
FIN3703A
2
Financial Intermediaries
I. Financial intermediaries
Financial intermediation: Intermediate between suppliers and
demanders of funds
e.g bond mature at different time
• Maturity intermediation
• Denomination intermediation
• Risk intermediation
3
Risks in Banks
4
Interest Rate Risk
Source: Table 17.1 Balance Sheet of All Commercial Banks (items as a percentage of the total, 2016), Financial Markets and
Institutions, 9e, Mishkin and Eakins. Pearson Education, 2018.
5
Interest Rate Risk
• Short term deposits banks have no interest rate because it can offer high i/r to depositor
and loan at high i/r
• Long term fixed mortgage loans banks will lose money if theres a mismatch of maturity due to
pre-selling
• Fluctuation of interest rates fee for selling financial instrument = p1q1 -p0q0
6
Interest Rate Risk
7
Interest Rate Risk
Gap report there is no loans for 1 day to consumer but floating i/r
change every month. however for simplicity banks put
1day to differentiate floating vs fixed
Gap report
Which is better: positive or negative gap position?
9
Interest Rate Risk
Duration
• Gap report: shortcoming
• Time value of money is not taken into account
• Does not give a comprehensive view of how the net value of
the bank (assets and liabilities positions of the bank) will be
affected by a change in interest rate
12
Interest Rate Risk
Duration: example
∑ ∗
• Duration (Macaulay’s duration): 𝐷 ∑
• Example: 3-year coupon bond, face value = $1,000, coupon rate =
10%, annual coupon payment
100/1.1^2
2 100 100/1.1^ 2 * 2
Total 1000
2735.54
13
Interest Rate Risk
Duration: properties
• Duration (Macaulay’s duration):
∑ 𝑡 ∗ 𝑃𝑉𝐶𝐹
𝐷
∑ 𝑃𝑉𝐶𝐹
(zero coupon bond)
______________.
t
• The longer the duration, all else constant, the more / less
vulnerable the portfolio is to changes in interest rates.
17
Interest Rate Risk
Duration
• Macaulay’s duration:
∑ 𝑡 ∗ 𝑃𝑉𝐶𝐹
𝐷
∑ 𝑃𝑉𝐶𝐹
• Modified Duration
𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑀𝑜𝑑𝐷
1 𝑖
19
Interest Rate Risk
Duration
• Example: 3-year coupon bond, face value = $1,000, coupon rate =
10%, annual coupon payment.
• Duration = _______________________
2735.54/1000= 2.73554
• If 𝑖 ↑ 1% (that is Δ𝑖 =_____):
1%
𝑀𝑜𝑑𝐷 _________
D/(1+i0) = 2.7355 /(1+0.1) = 2.4868
Δ𝑃 ______________
-2.4868 * 1% * 1000 = -24.87
20
Interest Rate Risk
Duration gap
𝑀𝑉
𝐷 𝐷 ∗𝐷
𝑀𝑉
Δ𝑖
Δ𝑀𝑉 𝐷 ∗ ∗ 𝑀𝑉
1 𝑖
Δ𝑀𝑉 Δ𝑖
%Δ𝑀𝑉 𝐷 ·
𝑀𝑉 1 𝑖
• Answer:
• ∆𝑖 1%
• 𝑖0 10%
25
Interest Rate Risk
Part II:
• ABC has $1.5m of liabilities (at market value) with a duration of
2.68 years. How much will the value of the bank change due to the
change in interest rate?
28
Interest Rate Risk
33
Interest Rate Risk
• Prepayment
• More likely when interest rate _______
falls
34
Interest Rate Risk
36
Interest Rate Risk
sep-dec
libor is beginning aka sep and imm is known on beginning
• Swaps sofr get out on last trading day on dec and imm is known on last trading day
• Transaction hedge
• Balance sheet hedge
37
Interest Rate Risk
• Strategy:
• Buy / Sell 6-month futures contracts of a short-term interest
rate instrument, e.g., 3-month Eurodollar (LIBOR), to hedge
the fall in NII due to interest rate decrease
if interest rate decrease in 6 mth, bill price increase
hence we buy 6 month futures. we have the rights and obligation to buy the bill in 6 month.
e.g 3month eurodollar libor
38
Interest Rate Risk
40
Interest Rate Risk
• Thus, if the bank plans to fully hedge the gap ($75,000), then it
should buy/sell ______contracts
75k/2.5k= 30
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Interest Rate Risk
44
Interest Rate Risk
3‐Month SOFR Futures 1‐Month SOFR Futures
timeline june-dec
sofr 1st price before june
sofr 2nd price at dec
• IMM price increases by 1 point
• R decreases by 1 percent per annum
• the value of 3-month SOFR futures contract increases by
$2,500 rwhich
=6
means i/r is 6%
3m interest rate = 6%/4 = 1.5%
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Interest Rate Risk
• Example 1: client wants fixed rate loans but bank wants floating
assets
Pay 5 yr 3% fixed (swap rate)
Swap
Bank
Counterparty
Pay 5 yr SIBOR (floating)
49
Interest Rate Risk
• Strategy:
• Swap $15m: pay SIBOR (floating) and receive fixed (3%)
• In 6 months, if interest rate decrease 100 basis points, then
SIBOR = 2.5%
• Swap income in 6 months = ________
(3%-2.5%) *15m = 75k
if interest rate rise NII falls, hence we should sell swap, i.e we buy floating
sell fix swaps.
51
Interest Rate Risk
53
Risks in Banks
54
Liquidity Risk
2. Liquidity Risks
• Banks must have sufficient liquidity to meet obligations (especially
withdrawal) failure of which will lead to bank runs. Banks cannot
have cash flow problems!!!
55
Liquidity Risk
Reserves requirement
• Reserves requirement = 10%, Excess reserves = $0 million
• Deposit outflow of $10 million. How much reserve to top up?
Sources of liquidity
Liquidity risks
• Sources of liquidity: sell securities, borrow, Central bank’s
discount window (borrower of last resort).
• Liquidity needed:
• Short-term requirement
• Seasonal requirement
• Structure changes in liquidity requirement
• Liquidity regulation: to offset unplanned cash outflow/withdrawal. if hit below mcb, need to borrow
59
Liquidity Risk
61
Liquidity Risk
Price of liquidity
sell up/down
• Liquidity for loans and investments the prices of goods and services that are exchanged
between companies under common control. For
example, if a subsidiary company sells goods or renders
• The price of liquidity: funds transfer pricing services to its holding company or a sister company, the
price charged is referred to as the transfer price
62
Risks in Banks
63
Other Risks
3. Other Risks
Credit risks: Default risk
• Risk of default of any counterparty:
• Retail borrowers (e.g. residential, hire purchase, share
financing, personal loans, credit cards)
• Corporate borrowers (eg. loans to SMEs)
• Issuers of securities (eg. bonds and commercial paper
issuers)
• Swap counterparties
64
Other Risks
3. Other Risks
Forex risks:
• Risk due to fluctuations of foreign currencies
• Commonly managed by derivatives
• For example: An US exporter exports 1000 TVs to Singapore,
the payment will be made 3 months from today. To lock the
exchange rate, enter USD/SGD FX futures / forward contracts
of buying/selling S$ with the delivery date is 3 months from
today.
us supplier sold tv in sg and receive income from tv in sgd, hence us supplier needs to sell usd/sgd fx futures with delivery date 3 month from today
65
Other Risks
3. Other Risks
Trading risk or market risk:
• Market risk due to trading activities of the treasury desk
• Tools:
• VaR (value at risk)
• EaR (earnings at risk)
• EVE (Economic Value of Equity)
• RiskMetrics
• Mark-to-Market
these tools exist but we do not need to know them in details.
possibly mcq- what are some tools to market risk
67
FIN3703A
69
Central Banks
govt - f.p if govt has no money they can raise tax of issue tbill(borrow)
big loophole, if govt has no money, they will borrow(issue t.bill) to C.B and C.B will print money
70
Central Banks
head of MOF - lawrence wong who also happen to sit on the board of MAS
71
Central Banks
• Note: Not all functions are carried out by all central banks.
73
Central Banks
• Interest-rate policy
however with so much money placed with fed, the money isint going to the citizen
75
Central Banks
76
FIN3703A
80
Basel
• Purpose:
• Ensure banks have enough asset capital
L&E
to meet obligations and
absorb unexpected losses y0 10
y1 +2
8&2
8&2+2
y2 -1 8&2+2-1
• Promote financial stability y3 -4 8&2+2-1-4
7 8& -1 (bankrupt)
basel does not want banks to go bankrupt, hence they
impose rules to reduce bank decision to pursue risky activity
• History of the Basel Committee (link)
82
Basel
83
Basel
• Tier 2:
• Undisclosed reserves
• Asset revaluation reserves
• General provisions/general loan loss reserves
• Hybrid (debt or equity) capital instruments: eg. preference
stocks and convertibles
• Subordinated debt
84
Basel
85
Basel
86
Basel
Basel I (1988)
• Standard: the ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets is at least 8%
(compliance by end of 1992)
• Example:
Assets $’m
Cash 100
Claims on OECD governments 150
Secured mortgage loans 500
Claims on non‐OECD governments 50
Other assets 200
• Risk-weighted assets:
• $100m x 0% + $150m x 0% + $500m x 50% + $50m x 100% +
$200m x 100% = $500m
• Thus, required capital:
• $500m x 8% = $40m
87
Basel
88
Basel
Basel II
(2004) formula on slide 88
89
Basel
Basel II (2004)
Greater use of assessments of risk provided by banks’ internal
systems as inputs to capital calculations
• Credit risk:
• Standardized approach
• for many banks
• similar to the 1988 method
• Internal-Rating-Based (IRB) approach
• allowed for sophisticated banks
• Rely on internal estimates of risk components:
• PD (probability of default)
• LGD (loss given default)
• EAD (exposure at default)
• M (effective maturity)
• Complex rules and risk-weighted functions
90
Basel
Basel II (2004)
• Market risk: risk resulting from trading activities
• Standardized measurement method
• Internal models approach
91
Basel
Basel II (2004)
• More national discretions. Too much?
92
Basel
• Major changes
• Liquidity requirement
amount of requirement and quality of capital
• Higher capital requirement
less risky assets become riskier in recession, hence the denominator of capital
• Countercyclical buffer adequacy increase which means the capital needs to increase to meet the 8%. hence
during good times basel want banks to put more money as buffer and during bad time,
it will demand less money, since these money needs to be used to save itself
• Systemically important banks (G-SIBs, D-SIBs)
g = global
d = domesitc
93