Lylli Anne Flanders

October 10, 2022

Quant Skills and Reasoning

Linear Regression Report

Starting with Maine, the slope I documented is –0.000322058823 and the y-intercept is
0.7736338235. I believe the Slope is as low as it is because of the rise and fall of percentages in
the last 15 years. You can see on the chart that the poverty rate hit its peak in Maine in 2013,
but fortunately, in 2019 it is the lowest it's been in the last 15 years. For New York on the other
hand, the slope for the last 15 years is 0.0001279411765 and the y-intercept is –0.1107911765.
These numbers are lower than the numbers in Maine because the poverty rate in general is
higher in New York. The correlation coefficients for Maine and New York are 0.1556068583 and
0.0621695863. The correlation coefficient being used to describe the strength and direction of
an association/rate between variables shows me that the reason New York’s is much lower
than Maine’s is due to the amount of people, and impoverished people in New York. It relates
to the scatter plots because it shows the linear dependence of the variables.
Based on the information on my scatter plot, and looking at my slope, y intercept and
correlation coefficient for Maine, I am predicting that the poverty rate in Maine for 2020 would
be slightly lower than the previous year (10.90%). I predict this because from 2014-2019 there
was a consistent decrease in the poverty rate. My prediction was correct, the poverty rate for
2020 in Maine was 10.60% which is lower than 2019. Secondly, I am predicting that the poverty
rate for New York also decreased because there has been a consistent decrease in the rate over
the last seven years. I was also correct about this because the poverty rate went from 13.10%
to 12.70%. The predictions were made by both using context clues from the scatter plots and
the information I acquired while finding the slope, y-intercept and the correlation coefficient.
But also, by using my linear equations, y= -0.0003x + 0.773 and y= 0.062x + -0.110 and
figuring out what the possible prediction for the poverty rate of 2020 could be.
I think that my prediction was as close as it was because using the clues, we
have provided to us almost give us the answer. Unless there was a huge change in the
way Maine or New York is ran entirely, resulting in a drastic change of pattern in the
poverty rate, the rate is very predictable without even having the linear equation
provided to us. I will also say that I think the Linear equation was helpful and reliable, it
helped me figure out what 2020’s poverty rate was, and it was created with the
information directly taken from SAIPE, so I know that it is accurate. In conclusion, I
would say that the linear equation was reliable, and I would use it again.
I
Maine New York
2019 10.90% 2019 13.10%
2018 11.60% 2018 13.70%
2017 11.30% 2017 14.10%
2016 12.30% 2016 14.80%
2015 13.20% 2015 15.50%
2014 13.10% 2014 16.00%
2013 14.00% 2013 16.00%
2012 14.00% 2012 15.90%
2011 14.20% 2011 16.10%
2010 13.10% 2010 15.00%
2009 12.30% 2009 14.20%
2008 12.60% 2008 13.70%
2007 12.20% 2007 13.80%
2006 12.70% 2006 14.20%
2005 12.30% 2005 13.90%
2004 11.50% 2004 14.50%

Correlation -0.1556068583 0.0621695863

-
Slope 0.0003220588235 0.0001279411765
Y Intercept 0.7736338235 -0.1107911765
y= -0.0003x + y= 0.062x + -
0.773 0.110