October Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll

Field Dates: October 12-13, 2022 1
SURVEY METHOD
Results were weighted for age within gender, region,

race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income,
employment, education, political party, and political
This survey was conducted ideology where necessary to align them with their actual
online within the United proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting
States from October 12-13, was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be
online.
2022 among 2,010
registered voters by The The poll was supervised by pollsters:
Harris Poll and HarrisX. Mark Penn (Chairman, The Harris Poll)
Dritan Nesho (CEO, HarrisX)
Stephen Ansolabehere (Professor and CAPS Director
Emeritus, Harvard University)
2
APPROVAL AND
MOOD OF COUNTRY
3
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
LESS THAN A THIRD OF VOTERS SAY % Who Say “Right Track”

THE COUNTRY IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK 10/21 01/22 03/22 04/22 05/22 06/22 07/22 09/22 10/22
GOP 11% 14% 13% 14% 15% 9% 12% 13% 14%
Country: Right Track / Wrong Track DEM 66% 58% 62% 62% 55% 45% 51% 59% 55%
80% IND 28% 28% 24% 23% 17% 15% 18% 21% 19%
70%
70%
64%65% 63% 64% 63%
62% 62% 62%
61% 61%
59% 60%58% 60% 60% 59% 58%58%
58%
60% 55%55% 56%
55%54% 55% 56%55% 55% 56%55%54% 56%56%
54% 53%53% 52%52%52%53%53%52%54% 53%54%52% 54% 54%55% 53% 54%
52% 53% 52%53%53%53%
50%
48%
50% 47%46%48%47% 47%
46%
43%43%44%43%
40% 41% 41%
39%39%39%38%39%40%38% 38%38%38%39%38% 39% 39%39% 39%
40% 34%
37%
36% 35%
37%37% 36%
35% 36% 37%37%37% 37%36% 36%35%
34%
34% 34% 33% 34%
32% 32% 32% 32%32% 32%31%
30%30% 30% 31% 30% 30%
29% 29% 28%
30% 27%27% 27%
24%
20%
14%14%14%14%13%14% 15%
12%12%12% 12% 11%10%10%11%
10% 10%
9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 10%
8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8%
7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7%
10% 7% 6% 6% 6%
0%
Nov-2 0
June 18
Nov 17
Nov 18
Nov 19
Nov 21
Feb 17
Sep 17
Feb 18
Sep 18
Feb 19
Sep 19
Feb 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
Sep 21
Feb 22
Sep 22
Jun 17
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Jun 22
Dec 17
July 18
Dec 18
Dec 19
May 17
May 18
May 19
May 20
May 21
May 22
Mar 17
Mar 18
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Mar 22
Oct 17
Oct 18
Oct 19
Oct 20
Oct 21
Oct 22
Jan 18
Jan 19
Jan 20
Jan 21
Jan 22
Jul 17
Jul 19
Jul 20
Jul 21
Jul 22
Aug 17
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Apr 17
Apr 18
Apr 19
Apr 20
Apr 21
Apr 22
Right track Wrong track Don't know / Unsure
4
M1. In general, do you think the country is on the right track or is it off on the wrong track?
% Who Say “Right Track”

JUST OVER A QUARTER OF AMERICAN VOTERS
SAY THE ECONOMY IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK 10/21 01/22 03/22 04/22 05/22 06/22 07/22 09/22 10/22
GOP 11% 13% 13% 11% 12% 8% 11% 12% 13%
DEM 60% 50% 57% 58% 47% 39% 43% 55% 49%
U.S. Economy: Right Track / Wrong Track IND 27% 23% 22% 19% 15% 14% 17% 19% 17%
80%
70%
71%
67% 67% 66%
60% 65% 56% 64% 64%
62% 61%
51%51% 51% 60%60% 60%
47%47%49%48%48%47%
47%48% 47% 48%49% 49% 58% 58% 57% 58%
47%
49% 57%58%
50% 46%
44%45% 45% 46% 55% 47%
43% 43%44% 52% 42% 43%53%
51% 40% 49%39%
40% 45% 46% 36% 36%36% 45%
43% 44% 35% 34%
41% 41% 42%41% 41% 33%32% 42%42% 42%
42% 32% 32%31%
40%39%39% 39%38% 30%30%
38%39% 37%
39%
37%37% 39% 41% 29% 29% 30%
30% 36% 27% 35% 26% 26% 27%
25%
21%
20%
17%
10% 16% 15%14%13%14% 15%16%
12%13%11%12%11%12%13%12%12%11%12%11%12%11%12%14%13% 12%10% 12%13% 12%11%
10% 10% 9% 9% 7% 10% 9% 10%10% 9% 10%
8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 9% 7% 7%
0%
Jan 19
Jan 20
Jan 21
Jan 22
May 18
May 19
May 20
May 21
May 22
Mar 18
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Mar 22
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Apr 18
Arp 19
Apr 20
Apr 21
Apr 22
Nov-20
Sep 18
Feb 19
Sep 19
Feb 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
Sep 21
Feb 22
Sep 22
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Jun 22
Nov 18
Nov 19
Nov 21
June 18
Jul 19
Jul 20
Jul 21
Jul 22
July 18
Dec 18
Dec 19
Oct 18
Oct 19
Oct 20
Oct 21
Oct 22
Right track Wrong track Don't know / Unsure
5
M2. In general, do you think the American economy is on the right track or is it off on the wrong track?
TODAY, ONLY A THIRD BELIEVE THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STRONG
How strong do you think the U.S. economy is today?

80% 74% 75%74%
72% 72%
70%69%68%68%69%70%71% 71%70% 70%71% 71%69% 69%70% 70%
70% 66% 66%66%
62% 63% 63% 72%
69% 59% 59%
54% 56%
60% 57%
56%52%55% 65% 67%66%65%
63% 53%51% 54% 62%
61%61% 60%
50% 57% 57% 57%
43% 43%
39% 48% 53% 40%
37% 45% 38%
40% 43%44% 47%49%46% 47% 46%
43%41% 35% 33%34%35%
31% 41% 44%
39% 37% 28%
38% 37%
30% 34% 34%34%
30%31%32%32%31%30%29% 29%30% 30%29% 29%31% 31%30% 30%
28% 28%
20% 26% 25%26%
10%
0%
Mar 18
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Mar 22
Oct 18
Oct 19
Oct 20
Oct 21
Oct 22
June 18
Jan 19
Jan 20
Jan 21
Jan 22
May 18
May 19
May 20
May 21
May 22
Nov-20
Nov 18
Jul 19
Nov 19
Jul 20
Jul 21
Nov 21
Jul 22
July 18
Dec 18
Dec 19
Apr 18
Apr 19
Apr 20
Apr 21
Apr 22
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Jun 22
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Feb 18
Sep 18
Feb 19
Sep 19
Feb 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
Sep 21
Feb 22
Sep 22
Strong Weak
6
I3. How strong do you think the U.S. economy is today?
MOST AMERICANS SAY THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATION IS WORSENING
“No opinion” removed
Would you say that your personal financial situation is improving or getting worse? as response option in
November 2021
70%
60% 64%
57%
50% 56% 56%54%
42% 53%
40% 41% 41% 42% 49%48%
38% 39% 46%
40% 37%38% 37%
36%
38% 36% 37%37% 36%38%36% 36%
35%36% 35% 37%36%36% 37%
37% 45%
35% 34% 35%34% 35% 35%35% 35% 35%
34%
38% 38%40%33% 33% 43%
40%40%32% 33%35%32%
31%31% 38% 36% 38%
40%40% 30% 38% 30%
39% 30%
29% 36% 36% 37% 38%29%
28% 37%
30% 25% 33% 33% 26% 27% 27%25%27%
32% 27% 33% 33% 32%34%25%24% 25% 25%
22% 22% 32%31%
30% 23% 23% 22%23% 23%
21%21%31%31%30%29% 22%
29% 20% 21%20%
20% 26% 26%25% 24% 23% 27% 27% 16%
24%25%25% 23% 23% 23%25%23%22%24% 24%21% 23% 23%
21% 22%20%22% 22% 22%21%22% 20%
20%
10%
8% 8% 9% 9% 7%
0% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 4% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7%
4% 6% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6% 4% 4%
June 18
Jan 19
Jan 20
Jan 21
Jan 22
Mar 18
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Mar 22
Oct 18
Oct 19
Oct 20
Oct 21
Oct 22
May 18
May 19
May 20
May 21
May 22
Nov 18
Jul 19
Nov 19
Jul 20
Nov 20
Jul 21
Nov 21
Jul 22
July 18
Dec 18
Dec 19
Apr 18
Apr 19
Apr 20
Apr 21
Apr 22
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Jun 22
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Sep 18
Feb 19
Sep 19
Feb 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
Sep 21
Feb 22
Sep 22
Improving Getting worse Just as well off No opinion
7
I4. Would you say that your personal financial situation is improving or getting worse?
84 PERCENT OF AMERICANS SAY THE U.S. IS IN A RECESSION NOW OR WILL BE IN ONE

BY NEXT YEAR
Do you think the U.S. is in a recession now, will be in a In general, are you feeling optimistic or pessimistic about
recession in the next year or most likely will avoid a your life over the next year?
recession?
43% 43%
40%
49% 49% 40%
39% 40% 40%
46% 37% 37%
42% 46% 38%
39% 36% 38% 35%
36% 33%
18% 23% 22% 23% 23% 23%

16% 16% 16% 21%
12%
May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Sep 22 Oct 22
Is in a recession now
Will be in a recession in the next year Apr 22 May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Sep 22 Oct 22
Will avoid a recession Optimistic Pessimistic About the same
OUT1: In general, are you feeling optimistic or pessimistic about your life over the next year?
8
REC: Do you think the U.S. is in a recession now, will be in a recession in the next year or most likely will avoid a recession?
BIDEN’S APPROVAL IS FLAT AT 42%
President Biden Overall Approval
57% 59% 61% 62% 52% 48% 43% 45% 39% 38% 39% 41% 41% 38% 38% 41% 42%
20% 18% 17% 21% 20% 18% 19% 21%

26% 24% 23% 23% 23%
33% 33% 30% 33%
21% 21% 20% 19%

Strongly approve
25% 18% 19% 21% 18% 21%
20%
24% Somewhat approve
26%
24% 26% 30% 26% 13% 16% 17% 17% 17%
16% 15% 16% 15%
16% 14% Somewhat disapprove
14%
13%
9% 9%
10% 11% Strongly disapprove
40% 39% 38% 40% 40%
30% 36%
35% 37% 38% 39% 39% 40% Not sure
30% 29% 23%
26%
4% 4% 3% 7% 2% 6%
5% 4% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3%
Mar Apr 21 May Jun 21 Jul 21 Sep 21Oct 21 Nov Jan 22 Feb 22 Mar Mar May Jun 22 Jul 22 Sep 22Oct 22
21 21 21 22 23 22
9
M3ALT. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President of the United States?
BIDEN’S APPROVAL ON MANAGEMENT OF ISSUES IS WEAK ACROSS THE BOARD
Approve Biden on…
(Strongly or Somewhat Approve)
January February
March April May June Sept Mar May
2021 2021 July 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Apr 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 22 Sep 22 Oct 22
2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022
May (Trump) (Biden)
The Economy 56% 61% 60% 60% 62% 61% 54% 44% 40% 41% 35% 33% 35% 38% 36% 32% 36% 37% 39%
Stimulating
58% 58% 59% 59% 62% 61% 57% 46% 44% 45% 41% 38% 39% 46% 45% 43% 41% 44% 46%
Jobs
Fighting
55% 59% 59% 58% 59% 59% 54% 41% 39% 40% 38% 34% 36% 43% 42% 40% 41% 42% 44%
Terrorism
Immigration 52% 56% 48% 52% 53% 52% 49% 40% 35% 35% 34% 32% 34% 38% 38% 37% 39% 37% 38%
Foreign Affairs 52% 61% 56% 58% 58% 59% 53% 40% 39% 39% 35% 33% 38% 41% 41% 39% 39% 40% 41%
Administering
49% 62% 60% 62% 61% 62% 57% 45% 42% 44% 40% 38% 35% 44% 42% 38% 41% 41% 44%
the Gov't
Reacting to
47% 68% 71% 69% 70% 69% 63% 52% 50% 50% 44% 44% 42% 52% 53% 50% 48% 49% 51%
coronavirus
Dealing with
violence and
55% 56% 56% 50% 41% 38% 39% 36% 33% 34% 39% 38% 34% 38% 38% 39%
crime in the
country
Handling
31% 28% 33% 35% 34% 28% 33% 36% 35%
inflation
10
M3A. Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Biden is doing on …?
GOP APPROVAL HAS RISEN FOUR POINTS IN THE LAST FOUR MONTHS, NOW AT 49%
GOP Approval
“Don’t know” removed
70% as response option in
57%59%
61%61%60%60% 61%61% November 2021
70%59% 72% 59%58%58%60%58%59% 58% 59%59%
60% 71% 57% 56%55%56% 57%56%
55%55%56%54%54% 54% 54%54% 54% 55% 55%
52% 51% 51% 52%53% 51%52% 51%
53% 52%52%
51%
50%
50% 47%
53%
49% 49% 48% 49%48% 50%49% 49%
46%46%48%
46% 46%46% 47% 48%48%
40% 45%45%44% 45%
44% 44% 43%44% 45% 45%
29% 43% 43%
40%40%30%41% 28% 41%42%42%40%42%41% 42% 41%41%
39%39% 39%39% 39%
43%41%
30%
20%
10% 5%
7%
0%
Mar 18
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Mar 22
Oct 18
Oct 19
Oct 20
Oct 21
Oct 22
June 18
Jan 19
Jan 20
Jan 21
Jan 22
May 18
May 19
May 20
May 21
May 22
Nov-20
July 18
Nov 18
Jul 19
Nov 19
Jul 20
Jul 21
Nov 21
Jul 22
Dec 18
Dec 19
Apr 18
Apr 19
Apr 20
Apr 21
Apr 22
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Jun 22
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Sep 18
Feb 19
Sep 19
Feb 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
Sep 21
Feb 22
Sep 22
Approve Disapprove Don't know
11
M4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republican Party is handling its job?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY APPROVAL HAS PLATEAUED AFTER RISING, NOW AT 46%
Democratic Party Approval “Don’t know” removed

70% as response option in
November 2021
59% 60%59% 60%
60% 56%58%57%58%56%58%58% 57%56% 56%56%57%57% 58%57% 57%
54%54%65%54% 54% 54%54%54%53%54%54%53%54%54% 54%54% 55% 55%
55%55% 54%
52% 52%52% 53%
53% 52%53% 53%
50% 56%
50% 55%
45%
50% 44%
47% 48% 48%48% 47%
47% 4 48%
5% 47%
46%46%35%46% 46% 47%
46%46%46% 46%46% 46%46% 46%46% 45% 46%
40% 44% 43% 44% 44% 44%44%43%43% 45%
42% 42% 42%42%41% 43% 43% 42%43% 43%
40%41% 40%
38%
30%
20%
10%
4%
0%
June 18
Jan 19
Jan 20
Jan 21
Jan 22
Mar 18
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Mar 22
Oct 18
Oct 19
Oct 20
Oct 21
Oct 22
May 18
May 19
May 20
May 21
May 22
Nov-20
Nov 18
Jul 19
Nov 19
Jul 20
Jul 21
Nov 21
Jul 22
July 18
Dec 18
Dec 19
Apr 18
Apr 19
Apr 20
Apr 21
Apr 22
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Jun 22
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Sep 18
Feb 19
Sep 19
Feb 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
Sep 21
Feb 22
Sep 22
Approve Disapprove Don't know
12
M5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democratic Party is handling its job?
OVERALL, ONLY A THIRD APPROVE OF THE JOB CONGRESS IS DOING
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job?
39% 49% 46% 54% 45% 36% 31% 32% 30% 30% 34% 34% 31% 28% 30% 32% 33%
11% 10% 9% 8% 10% 9% 7% 7% 8% 11% 9%

13% 16% 16% 15% 13%
19%
22% 21%
20% 22% 21% 23% 25% 24% 22%
21% 24% Strongly approve
24%
34%
34% 30% 30% Somewhat approve
35%
28% 27% 30% 28%
30%
28%
28% 27%
Somewhat disapprove
28% 28% 28%
26%
Strongly disapprove
31% 33% 30%
27%
28%
Don't know
32% 33% 30% 32% 35% 33% 32%
31% 29% 29% 29% 31%
23% 23% 22% 25%

18%
7% 8% 9% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
March April May Jun 21 Jul 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Jan 22 Feb 22 Mar 22 Apr 22 May Jun 22 Jul 22 Sep 22 Oct 22
21 21 21 22
13
CON1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job?
TRUMP, PENCE AND BIDEN ARE TOP THREE
MOST FAVORED POLITICAL FIGURES Favorable Unfavorable

(NET) (NET)
NET
Donald Trump 28% 19% 38% 1%5% Donald Trump 47% 47% 0
Mike Pence 14% 30% 21% 3% 13% Mike Pence 44% 40% 4
Joe Biden 22% 21% 39% 1%5% Joe Biden 43% 51% -8
Bernie Sanders 16% 27% 27% 3% 13% Bernie Sanders 42% 42% 0
Kamala Harris 19% 21% 38% 2% 8%

Kamala Harris 40% 50% -10
Favorability of Ron DeSantis 22% 17% 22% 10% 18%
Ron DeSantis 39% 33% 6
Political Figures Hillary Clinton 17% 21% 37% 1% 9%

Hillary Clinton 38% 51% -13
Ted Cruz 15% 23% 26% 5% 18%

Ted Cruz 38% 38% 0
Nancy Pelosi 14% 19% 42% 3% 9%

Nancy Pelosi 33% 55% -22
Very favorable Chuck Schumer 11% 18% 27% 8% 22% Chuck Schumer 29% 41% -12
Favorable Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11% 18% 28% 11% 19% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 29% 41% -12
Unfavorable Mike Pompeo 10% 17% 17% 11% 29% Mike Pompeo 28% 31% -3
Very unfavorable Mitch McConnell 8% 19% 29% 7% 18% Mitch McConnell 27% 49% -22
Tim Scott 12% 13% 12% 24% 29% 3
Never heard of them Tim Scott 25% 22%
Merrick Garland 10% 14% 16% 25% 25% Merrick Garland 24% 27% -3
No opinion
Joe Manchin 5% 16% 17% 16% 25% Joe Manchin 22% 37% -15
Fav (NET) - Hide me Anthony Blinken 8% 13% 16% 23% 28% Anthony Blinken 21% 28% -7
Kyrsten Sinema 6% 12% 13% 28% 27% Kyrsten Sinema 18% 27% -9
Christopher Wray 6% 11% 12% 32% 29% Christopher Wray 17% 22% -5
Vladimir Putin 5% 7% 62% 3% 11% Vladimir Putin 11% 75% -64
14
F1. Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group – or if you’ve never heard of them.
MILITARY, AMAZON AND POLICE ARE MOST FAVORABLE
INSTITUTIONS Favorable Unfavorable

(NET) (NET)
NET
U.S. Military 43% 37% 5%1% 9% U.S. Military 79% 11% 68
Amazon 37% 40% 6%1%7% Amazon 77% 15% 62
Police Police 68% 23% 45

Favorability 29% 39% 11% 1%8%
of Institutions Ukraine 23% 37% 11% 2% 17% Ukraine 60% 21% 39
Centers for Disease Control 19% 37% 15% 2% 12% CDC 56% 30% 26
FBI 20% 34% 16% 1% 12% FBI 54% 33% 21
Facebook 22% 31% 21% 1% 10% Facebook 53% 37% 16

Very favorable
NATO 19% 34% 10% 4% 20% NATO 52% 23% 29
Favorable
Unfavorable U.S. Supreme Court 17% 33% 16% 1% 13% U.S. Supreme Court 50% 36% 14
Very unfavorable Department of Justice 16% 33% 18% 1% 13% DOJ 49% 37% 12
Never heard of them Black Lives Matter 21% 23% 29% 1% 12% Black Lives Matter 44% 43% 1
No opinion Twitter 13% 23% 23% 1% 21% Twitter 35% 43% -8
Fav (NET) - Hide me
China 5% 12% 44% 2% 14% China 17% 67% -50
Antifa 5% 9% 39% 12% 22% Antifa 14% 52% -38
Russia 5% 8% 56% 2% 13% Russia 13% 72% -59
15
F1. Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group – or if you’ve never heard of them.
INFLATION, THE ECONOMY, AND IMMIGRATION DOMINATE AS TOP ISSUES FACING

THE COUNTY
What would you say are the most important issues facing the country today?
-2
Price increases / inflation +3 37%
Economy and jobs 29%
Immigration +2 23%
Crime and drugs 18%
Women's rights 17%
Health care 15%
Guns 15%
Environment / climate change 14%
National debt / federal budget deficits 13%
Terrorism / national security 11%
Corruption 10%
School safety 10%
Coronavirus 9%
Taxes 9%
Voting rights 7%
Income inequality 7%
Criminal justice (policing, courts, prisons) 7%
Education 7%
January 6th 7%
Race relations 6%
Cybersecurity 5%
Political correctness / cancel culture 5%
Foreign policy 5%
Policing 4%
Defense 4%
Civil disorder 4%
Other 2%
16
I1. What would you say are the most important issues facing the country today?
REPUBLICAN PARTY LEADERS ARE SEEN AS FOCUSED ON THE TOP THREE ISSUES OF
CONCERN TO VOTERS
What issues are Republican Party leaders most concerned with?
Immigration 37%
Price increases / inflation 24%
Taxes 17%
Guns 17%
Crime and drugs 15%
Voting rights 13%
Corruption 9%
Women's rights 9%
Foreign policy 9%
January 6th 9%
Policing 8%
Health care 8%
Defense 8%
Coronavirus 7%
Education 7%
School safety 6%
Race relations 6%
Civil disorder 5%
Cybersecurity 4%
Other 2%
17
ISS4. What issues are Republican Party leaders most concerned with? Please select three.
DEMOCRATIC PARTY LEADERS SEEN AS DISCONNECTED FROM THE TOP ISSUES;

FOCUSED ON JANUARY 6, WOMEN RIGHTS, AND THE ENVIRONMENT
What issues are Democratic Party leaders most concerned with?
January 6th 27%
Women's rights 25%
Guns 21%
Voting rights 14%
Price increases / inflation 14%
Health care 14%
Race relations 13%
Coronavirus 12%
Immigration 11%
Taxes 8%
Education 8%
Crime and drugs 7%
School safety 7%
Foreign policy 7%
Policing 6%
Corruption 6%
Civil disorder 5%
Cybersecurity 5%
Defense 4%
Other 3%
18
ISS5. What issues are Democratic Party leaders most concerned with? Please select three.
MIDTERM
HORSERACE &
DYNAMICS
19
61% OF VOTERS SAY THEY WILL DEFINITELY VOTE IN THE MIDTERMS

How likely or unlikely are you to vote in the upcoming 2022
How often do you vote in Congressional midterm
Congressional midterm elections on November 8th?
elections?
Always 44% Definitely going to vote 61%
Usually 19% Probably going to vote 15%
Sometimes 20% May or may not vote 13%
Rarely 10% Probably not going to participate 5%
Never 7% Definitely not going to participate 5%
S4. How often do you vote in Congressional midterm elections?

20
S5: How likely or unlikely are you to vote in the upcoming 2022 Congressional midterm elections on November 8th?
CONGRESSIONAL (GENERIC) HORSERACE A DEAD HEAT WITH DEMS AND GOP VOTING
ON PARTY LINES
Current Wave
*among those who say they are Definitely Voting
(TOP1 BOX Likely Voters)
If the congressional election were held today would you
be more likely to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Row % Democrat Republican
Congress? (Split sample) Democrat 81% 3%
75% GOP 2% 75%
IND/OTH 17% 22%
65%
Male 48% 55%
Female
55% 50% 51% 50% 50% 51% LV’s: 50% 45%
White 65% 79%
50%
50%
53% GOP
50% 50% 50% 49% Black or AA 15% 7%
45% 49% 47% DEM Hispanic 14% 11%
35% Asian 4% 2%
Other 2% 2%
25% 18-34 21% 12%
Apr 22 May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 35-54 30% 30%
Democrat Republican 55+ 49% 58%

Urban 39% 22%
Suburban 45% 51%
Rural 17% 27%
21
CON2022A: If the congressional election were held today would you be more likely to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress?
INFLATION, CRIME AND IMMIGRATION ARE THE TOP SELF-STATED VOTER ISSUES
HEADING INTO THE MIDTERMS
How important are each of the following issues in your vote in the midterms for
Congress?
Very important Somewhat important Unimportant
Inflation 74% 22% 4%

Crime 68% 26% 5%
Immigration 59% 31% 9%
Abortion 55% 29% 16%
Climate change 47% 30% 23%
Achieving Racial justice 44% 35% 21%
Stopping the teaching of woke ideologies in schools 48% 29% 23%
The threat to democracy of MAGA republicans 41% 30% 29%
Trump 43% 21% 35%
Biden 43% 26% 30%
22
ELEC3xOct22r: How important are each of the following issues in your vote in the midterms for congress?
ON ALL THREE TOP ISSUES VOTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN RATHER
THAN DEMOCRAT
How will each of the following issues affect your vote in the midterms for
Congress
More likely to vote republican More likely to vote democratic No effect
Inflation 48% 36% 16%

Crime 47% 35% 18%
Immigration 46% 35% 19%
Abortion 38% 41% 21%
Climate change 35% 40% 24%
Achieving Racial justice 35% 39% 26%
Stopping the teaching of woke ideologies in schools 43% 33% 23%
The threat to democracy of MAGA republicans 36% 38% 27%
Trump 40% 36% 25%
Biden 39% 38% 24%
23
ELEC6xOct22r: How will each of the following issues affect your vote in the midterms for Congress
CRIME IS STILL A STRONG, POTENTIALLY SLEEPER, ISSUE IN THE FINAL STRETCH

Do you think crime is rising, dropping or staying the Do you think that the increase in crime is the fault of woke
same? politicians with or other factors?
66% 64%
11%
36%
24%
Rising Dropping Staying the same Woke politicians Other factors
Column % DEM GOP IND/OTH Column % DEM GOP IND/OTH

Rising 55% 81% 60% Woke politicians 52% 75% 60%
Dropping 15% 6% 11% Other factors 48% 25% 40%
Staying the same 30% 13% 29%
ELEC4xOct22r: Do you think crime is rising, dropping or staying the same?
24
ELEC5xOct22r: Do you think that the increase in crime is the fault of woke politicians with or other factors?
VOTERS ARE MORE ATTRACTED BY THE REPUBLICAN PLATFORM THAN THE

DEMOCRATIC ONE
The Biden administration has subsidized electric cars, Republicans want to close the border to illegal
subsidized college loans and pardoned marijuana crossings, increase incarceration of criminals, reduce
offenders. They also raised corporate taxes and or freeze government spending. Does this appeal to
added 87,000 IRS agents. Does this appeal to you as you as a program or not appeal to you?
a program or not appeal to you?
60%
52%
48% 40%
Appeal Not appeal Appeal Not appeal

Column % DEM GOP IND/OTH Column % DEM GOP IND/OTH
Appeal 80% 29% 45% Appeal 45% 76% 59%
Not appeal 20% 71% 55% Not appeal 55% 24% 41%
ELEC1xOct22: The Biden administration has subsidized electric cars, subsidized college loans and pardoned marijuana offenders. They also raised corporate taxes and added 87,000 IRS agents. Does this
appeal to you as a program or not appeal to you?
25
ELEC2xOct22: Republicans want to close the border to illegal crossings, increase incarceration of criminals, reduce or freeze government spending. Does this appeal to you as a program or not appeal to you?
2024 ELECTION
DYNAMICS
26
VOTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO QUESTION THE LEGITIMACY OF THE BIDEN ELECTION
THAN THE TRUMP ELECTION
Do you think the 2016 election of Do you think that the 2020 Do you think the Supreme Court is
Donald Trump was legitimate or election of Joe Biden was legitimate or illegitimate?
legitimate or illegitimate?
illegitimate?
69%
70% 62%
38% 31%
30%
Legitimate Illegitimate Legitimate Illegitimate Legitimate Illegitimate
Do you think the 2016 election of Donald Trump was legitimate Do you think that the 2020 election of Joe Biden was legitimate
or illegitimate? or illegitimate?
Column % DEM GOP IND/OTH NET Column % DEM GOP IND/OTH NET
Legitimate 68% 71% 73% 70% Legitimate 90% 36% 58% 62%
Illegitimate 32% 29% 27% 30% Illegitimate 10% 64% 42% 38%
NET 100% 100% 100% 100% NET 100% 100% 100% 100%
LEG1: Do you think that the 2020 election of Joe Biden was legitimate or illegitimate?
LEG2: Do you think that the 2020 election of Joe Biden was legitimate or illegitimate?
27
LEG3: Do you think the Supreme Court is legitimate or illegitimate?
MOST SAY THEY HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT BIDEN’S MENTAL FITNESS
Is Joe Biden mentally fit to serve as Do you think Joe Biden is showing he is too old
President of the United States or do you to be President or do you think he is showing he
have doubts about his fitness for office? is fit to be president?
(Split sample)
68%
55%
Sept: 63%
Sept: 44% 45% 32%
He is mentally fit Showing he is too old

I have doubts about his fitness Showing he is fit to be president
He is I have doubts Showing he is Showing he is
mentally fit about his too old fit to be
fitness president
Democrat 78% 22% Democrat 35% 65%
GOP 17% 83% GOP 92% 8%
IND/OTH 33% 67% IND/OTH 76% 24%
BID1. Is Joe Biden mentally fit to serve as President of the United States or do you have doubts about his fitness for office?
28
BID2. Do you think Joe Biden is showing he is too old to be President or do you think he is showing he is fit to be president?
TRUMP IS A CLEAR FAVORITE IN A PROSPECTIVE GOP PRIMARY; DESANTIS CONTINUES

GAINING AND IS NOW THE CLEAR RUNNER UP
If the Republican presidential primary for the If former President Donald Trump does not
2024 election was held today, who would you run for president in 2024, who would you
vote for? (GOP voters) vote for in the GOP primary? (GOP voters)
Donald Trump 55% Ron DeSantis 40%

Ron DeSantis 17%
Mike Pence 18%
Mike Pence 7%
Ted Cruz 9%
Marco Rubio 3%
Marco Rubio 4%
Ted Cruz 3%
Nikki Haley 2% Nikki Haley 3%
Mike Pompeo 2% Mike Pompeo 3%

Tim Scott 1% Tim Scott 1%
Someone else 3% Someone else 5%
Don't know / Unsure 7% Don't know / Unsure 17%
GOPPRIM1. If the Republican presidential primary for the 2024 election was held today, who would you vote for?
29
GOPPRIM2. If former President Donald Trump does not run for president in 2024, who would you vote for in the GOP primary?
BIDEN IS THE FAVORITE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY; HARRIS IS THE RUNNER UP

If the Democratic presidential primary for the If President Biden decides not to run again in
2024 election was held today, who would you 2024, who would you prefer to be the
vote for? (DEM voters) Democratic candidate? (DEM voters)
Joe Biden 37% Kamala Harris 25%

Kamala Harris 13% Hillary Clinton 17%
Hillary Clinton 9% Bernie Sanders 11%
Bernie Sanders 6% Pete Buttigieg 10%
Pete Buttigieg 6%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Elizabeth Warren 3%
Joe Manchin 4%
Stacey Abrams 3%
Joe Manchin 2%
Stacey Abrams 3%
Michael Bloomberg 2% Michael Bloomberg 3%
Amy Klobuchar 1% Amy Klobuchar 2%
Someone else 3% Someone else 4%
Don't know/Unsure 10% Don't know/Unsure 12%
DEM2024A: If the Democratic presidential primary for the 2024 election was held today, who would you vote for?
30
DEM2024B: If President Biden decides not to run again in 2024, who would you prefer to be the Democratic candidate?
TRUMP WINS IN A HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP VERSUS BIDEN OR HARRIS
If the 2024 election for President were If the 2024 election for President were If the 2024 election for President were
held today and it was between Donald held today and it was between Donald held today and it was between Ron
Trump, the Republican and Joe Biden, the Trump, the Republican and Kamala DeSantis, the Republican and Kamala
Democrat, who would you vote for? Harris, the Democrat, who would you Harris, the Democrat, who would you
vote for? vote for?
43% 41%
38%
45% 49% 39%
12% 13% 20%
Donald Trump Donald Trump Ron DeSantis

Joe Biden Kamala Harris Kamala Harris
Don't Know / Unsure Don't Know / Unsure Don't Know / Unsure
H3: If the 2024 election for President were held today and it was between Donald Trump, the Republican and Joe Biden, the Democrat, who would you vote for?
H5: If the 2024 election for President were held today and it was between Donald Trump, the Republican and Kamala Harris, the Democrat, who would you vote for?
31
H7: If the 2024 election for President were held today and it was between Ron DeSantis, the Republican and Kamala Harris, the Democrat, who would you vote for?
INFLATION
32
MOST VOTERS BLAME THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION FOR HIGH INFLATION

Do you mostly blame the Biden administration for Do you think inflation is increasing or coming down?
inflation or was it caused mostly by factors beyond
their control?
55%
45%
73%
12%
14%
Biden Administration
Factors beyond their control
DEM GOP IND/OTH Increasing Coming down Staying the same

Biden Administration 42% 71% 52%
Factors beyond their
58% 29% 48%
control
IN1xOct22: Do you mostly blame the Biden administration for inflation or was it caused mostly by factors beyond their control?
33
IN3xOct22: Do you think inflation is increasing or coming down?
MOST SAY THE FED IS MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE A RECESSION THAN ENABLE A SOFT
LANDING
Do you think gas prices are rising or falling? Do you think the Fed will cause a recession or will it
enable a soft landing as it works to rein in inflation?
69% 74%
16%
15% 26%
Rising Falling Staying the same Cause a recession Enable a soft landing
IN2xOct22: Do you think gas prices are rising or falling?

34
IN4xOct22: Do you think the Fed will cause a recession or will it enable a soft landing as it works to rein in inflation?
THE MAJORITY ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN EITHER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION’S OR THE
FED’S ABILITY TO REDUCE INFLATION
How confident are you in the Biden How confident are you in the Federal Reserve's
Administration's ability to keep inflation at ability to keep inflation at bay?
bay?
Very confident 16% Very confident 13%
Somewhat confident 26% Somewhat confident 29%
Not confident 23% Not confident 32%
Not at all confident 35% Not at all confident 26%
IN5xOct22: How confident are you in the Biden Administration's ability to keep inflation at bay?
35
IN6xOct22: How confident are you in the Federal Reserve's ability to keep inflation at bay?
HIGH INFLATION PUSHING VOTE TOWARD GOP IN MIDTERMS
Does inflation make you more likely to vote in the midterms for a democrat, for a republican or does not affect how
you vote in the midterms?
43% DEM GOP IND/OTH

Democrat 75% 5% 21%
Republican 7% 85% 35%
Does not affect my
19% 10% 44%
35% 22% vote
Democrat Republican Does not affect my vote
36
IN7xOct22: Does inflation make you more likely to vote in the midterms for a democrat, for a republican or does not affect how you vote in the midterms?
ENERGY
37
MOST OPPOSE THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION’S ENERGY AND GAS POLICIES

Do you support or oppose the energy and gas policies Do we need to emphasize lower gasoline prices and
of the Biden administration? energy independence or higher gasoline prices and
climate change?
54% 80%
46%
20%
Support Oppose
Emphasize lower prices and energy independence
DEM GOP IND/OTH emphasize higher gasoline prices and climate change
Support 81% 17% 36%
Oppose 19% 83% 64%
E1xOct22: Do you support or oppose the energy and gas policies of the Biden administration?
38
E2xOct22: Do we need to emphasize lower gasoline prices and energy independence or higher gasoline prices and climate change?
MOST SAY THAT BIDEN POLICIES ARE TO BLAME FOR INCREASED GAS PRICES
Do you think President Biden's policies are responsible for Do you think the switch to renewable energy should be
most of the increase in gas prices or are his policies not immediate no matter what the cost or gradual as
responsible? technology is developed and our domestic fuels are used
up?
62%
65%
38% 35%
Immediate no matter what the cost
Responsible Not Responsible gradual as technology is developed and our domestic fuels
are used up
E3xOct22: Do you think President Biden's policies are responsible for most of the increase in gas prices or are his policies not responsible?
39
E4xOct22: Do you think the switch to renewable energy should be immediate no matter what the cost or gradual as technology is developed and our domestic fuels are used up?
OVER 40% OF VOTERS SAY THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS AN IMMEDIATE THREAT

Do you think that climate change is an immediate threat Does Biden administration's energy and climate policies
to your life, a long-term threat to you, or not really a make more likely to vote in the midterms for a democrat,
threat to you? for a republican or not affect how you vote in the
midterms?
40%
58%
42% 39% 21%
Immediate threat Democrat Republican Does not affect my vote

Long term threat/ not really a threat DEM GOP IND/OTH
Democrat 82% 7% 22%
Does not affect my vote 13% 12% 44%
E6xOct22: Do you think that climate change is an immediate threat to your life, a long-term threat to you, or not really a threat to you?
40
E7xOct22: Does Biden administration's energy and climate policies make more likely to vote in the midterms for a democrat, for a republican or not affect how you vote in the midterms?
FOREIGN POLICY
41
VOTERS ARE AGAINST THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION EASING SANCTIONS ON

REPRESSIVE REGIMES LIKE VENEZUELA AND IRAN TO GET CHEAPER OIL AND GAS,
PREFER INCREASING DOMESTIC OUTPUT
Should the Biden administration ease sanctions on repressive regimes

like Venezuela and Iran to get cheaper oil and gas output or should it
deregulate domestic legislation to spur the output of American oil and
gas?
65%
35%
Ease sanctions on repressive regimes

Deregulate domestic policies to spur the output of American oil and gas
42
F1xOct22: Should the Biden administration ease sanctions on repressive regimes like Venezuela and Iran to get cheaper oil and gas output or should it deregulate domestic legislation to spur the output of American oil and gas?
SAUDI ARABIA STILL SEEN AS NEUTRAL BUT VOTERS SUPPORT PULLING TECHNICAL
AND MILITARY AID IN RESPONSE TO RECENT OIL SUPPLY CUTS BY KSA/OPEC
Do you consider the Kingdom of Saudi Arabi an ally, Should the United States cut military sales and technical aid to
neutral or an enemy of the United States? the Saudi government in response to the Saudis cutting oil
output this month and driving the cost of gas worldwide up or
should they not punish the Saudis to not harm a key
relationship in the Middle East and regional stability?
55%
54%
33% 46%
12%
Ally Neutral Enemy Cut military sales and technical aid

Don't harm a key relationship and regional stability
F3xOct22: Do you consider the Kingdom of Saudi Arabi an ally, neutral or an enemy of the United States?
F4xOct22: Should the United States cut military sales and technical aid to the Saudi government in response to the Saudis cutting oil output this month and driving the cost of gas
43
worldwide up or should they not punish the Saudis to not harm a key relationship in the Middle East and regional stability?
MAJORITY OF VOTERS REMAIN STEADFAST IN THEIR SUPPORT OF UKRAINE
Do you think the best policy is to supply Ukraine with the

weapons they need to fight Russia or to pull back and let
Ukraine and Russia deal with the war on their own?
IND/OT
DEM GOP
58% H
Supply weapons to Ukraine 65% 55% 53%
42% Pull back and let Ukraine and Russia
35% 45% 47%
handle on their own
Supply weapons to Ukraine

Pull back and let Ukraine and Russia handle on their own
44
F7xOct22: Do you think the best policy is to supply Ukraine with the weapons they need to fight Russia or to pull back and let Ukraine and Russia deal with the war on their own?
MAJORITIES BELIEVE U.S. GOVERNMENT SHOULD PROVIDE MORE WEAPONRY AND

ADVANCED SYSTEMS TO UKRAINE
Should the United States government provide more Should the United States government provide advanced
weapons to help Ukraine fight off the Russian invasion or missile defense systems to Ukraine to help it protect
should it avoid doing so for fear of escalating the conflict civilian centers from Russian rockets or avoid doing so?
with Russia?
59%
58% 41%
42%
Provide advanced missile defense systems

Provide more weapons Avoid doing so Avoid doing so
F5xOct22: Should the United States government provide more weapons to help Ukraine fight off the Russian invasion or should it avoid doing so for fear of escalating the conflict with Russia?
45
F6xOct22: Should the United States government provide advanced missile defense systems to Ukraine to help it protect civilian centers from Russian rockets or avoid doing so?
VOTERS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION POLICY TOWARDS

UKRAINE IS PUSHING US TOWARDS NUCLEAR WAR OR NOT
Do you think the Biden administration policy towards

Ukraine is pushing us more towards nuclear war or is it
preventing nuclear war?
DEM GOP IND/OTH

52% Pushing us toward
48% 38% 66% 53%
nuclear war
Preventing nuclear war 62% 34% 47%
Pushing us toward nuclear war

Preventing nuclear war
46
F8xOct22: Do you think the Biden administration policy towards Ukraine is pushing us more towards nuclear war or is it preventing nuclear war?
NEVERTHELESS, THEY FAVOR DIRECT NATO INTERVENTION AND BOOTS ON THE

GROUND IN UKRAINE IF RUSSIA USES A TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPON
How should the United States and NATO respond if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon
within Ukraine, if at all?
Provide Ukraine even more advanced weaponry to fight back including

fighter jets, but don’t engage Russia directly 21%
Accept Ukraine into NATO and send a peacekeeping force to freeze the
conflict in its current state in the hopes of a diplomatic solution 31%
Accept Ukraine into NATO and move swiftly to neutralize all

conventional Russian forces in Ukraine and the Black Sea, thereby 28%
removing the Russian threat
Do nothing for feal of things escalating into a nuclear war 20%
47
F10xOct22: How should the United States and NATO respond if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon within Ukraine, if at all?
IN GENERAL, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION FOREIGN POLICY PUSHES VOTES TOWARDS

THE GOP
Does Biden administration's foreign policy make more likely to vote in the midterms for a
democrat, for a republican or not affect how you vote in the midterms?
42% DEM GOP IND/OTH

Democrat 78% 5% 20%
Does not affect
36% 22% 16% 10% 45%
my vote
Democrat Republican Does not affect my vote
48
F11xOct22: Does Biden administration's foreign policy make more likely to vote in the midterms for a democrat, for a republican or not affect how you vote in the midterms?
MARIJUANA PARDONS
49
MAJORITY SUPPORTS THE MARIJUANA PARDONS
President Biden recently pardoned thousands of Do you think this executive order will cure over
people with federal charges and convictions policing of drug policies that affect minorities
related simple marijuana possession by executive disproportionally or lead to a surge in drug abuse
order. Do you...? and crime nationally?
Strongly support 36%

58%
Somewhat support 31% 42%
Somewhat oppose 16%
Strongly oppose 17% Cure over policing of drug policies affecting minorities
Lead to a surge in drug abuse and crime nationally
M1xOct22: President Biden recently pardoned thousands of people with federal charges and convictions related simple marijuana possession by executive order. Do you...?
50
M3xOct22: Do you think this executive order will cure over policing of drug policies that affect minorities disproportionally or lead to a surge in drug abuse and crime nationally?
BUT EQUAL NUMBERS THINK THE EXECUTIVE ORDER WAS POLITICALLY MOTIVATED TO
GET VOTES BEFORE THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND AFFECTS LESS THAN SEVERAL
THOUSAND CASES
Do you think this executive order was politically How many people do you think were in federal jail
motivated to get votes before the midterm simply for having marijuana in their possession?
elections or not?
Less than 100 11%
65% Several hundred 25%
35%
Several thousand 37%
Tens of thousands 26%

Politically motivated Not politically motivated
M4xOct22: Do you think this executive order was politically motivated to get votes before the midterm elections or not?
51
M5xOct22: How many people do you think were in federal jail simply for having marijuana in their possession?
TWO THIRDS BELIEVE THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ARRESTS PEOPLE ONLY
WHEN DEALING LARGE QUANTITIES, AND THE ADMINISTRATION’S ORDER DOESN’T
MOVE THE DIAL WITH THE ELECTORATE
Do you think that the federal government currently Does the presidential marijuana pardon make you more
arrests people just for smoking marijuana or do you think likely to vote in the midterms for a democrat, for a
those charges are only made when dealing for large republican or not affect how you vote in the midterms?
quantities?
36%
66%
35% 29%
34%
Democrat
Arrests people for just smoking Republican
Only when dealing for large quantities Does not affect my vote
M6xOct22: Do you think that the federal government currently arrests people just for smoking marijuana or do you think those charges are only made when dealing for large quantities?
52
M7xOct22: Does the presidential marijuana pardon make you more likely to vote in the midterms for a democrat, for a republican or not affect how you vote in the midterms?
STUDENT LOANS ORDER
53
MAJORITY SUPPORT THE STUDENT LOANS ORDER BUT BELIEVE IT WAS WRONG TO
PUSH IT THROUGH WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL AUTHORIZATION
President Biden recently cancelled up to $20,000 Do you think it was right or wrong for President Biden to
of student debt for couples making up to spend over $400 billion on student loan forgiveness
$250,000, costing an estimated $400 billion, by an without authorization by Congress?
executive order. Do you…?
Strongly support 31%
Somewhat support 27% 54%

46%
Somewhat oppose 14%
Strongly oppose 28%

Right Wrong
D1xOct22: President Biden recently cancelled up to $20,000 of student debt for couples making up to $250,000, costing an estimated $400 billion, by an executive order. Do you
strongly support this measure, somewhat support it, somewhat oppose it, or strongly oppose it?
54
D2xOct22: Do you think it was right or wrong for President Biden to spend over $400 billion on student loan forgiveness without authorization by Congress?
VOTERS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER IT WAS A LAWFUL EXERCISE OF PRESIDENTIAL

AUTHORITY, AND THE ACT IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH VOTES IN THE GOP’S DIRECTION
THAN FOR DEMOCRATS
Do you think his act will be held as a lawful exercise of Does the president's debt relief order make you more
presidential authority or will it be held as likely to vote democratic in the midterms, less likely to
unconstitutional in violation of Congress' power of the vote democratic or not affect your vote?
purse?
41%
51%
49% 35% 24%
Lawful exercise of presidential authority Democrat Republican Does not affect my vote
Will be seen as unconstitutional and in violation of DEM GOP IND/OTH
Congress' power of the purse
Democrat 76% 3% 21%
Does not affect my vote 17% 17% 44%
D4xOct22: Do you think his act will be held as a lawful exercise of presidential authority or will it be held as unconstitutional in violation of Congress' power of the purse?
55
D8xOct22: Does the president's debt relief order make you more likely to vote democratic in the midterms, less likely to vote democratic or not affect your vote?
ABORTION
56
VOTERS ARE SPLIT ON SUPPORT OF OVERTURNING ROE

Do you support or oppose the Supreme Court's decision Does the decision make you more likely to vote in the
to overturn Roe vs Wade, which allows each state to midterms for a democrat, for a republican or not affect
decide its own standards for abortion instead of a set how you vote in the midterms?
right?
Sept: 32%
Sept: 40%
37%
Sept: 49%
40%
23%
50% 50%
More likely to vote for a democrat

More likely to vote for a republican
No effect
Support Oppose
DEM GOP IND/OTH
More likely to vote for a democrat 78% 8% 29%
More likely to vote for a republican 10% 71% 29%
No effect 12% 21% 42%
AB2. Do you support or oppose the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade, which allows each state to decide its own standards for abortion instead of a set right?
57
AB6. Do you think it is better for abortion standards to be set by judges of the supreme court, by a vote of congress or by the legislatures of each individual state?
PLURALITY OF VOTERS SAY ABORTION LAWS SHOULD BE SET BY THE STATE
Do you support or oppose the Supreme Court's decision to

overturn Roe vs Wade, which allows each state to decide
its own standards for abortion instead of a set right?
Sept: 30% DEM GOP IND/OTH

31% Supreme Court Judges 29% 25% 23%
Sept: 42%
Congressional vote 38% 24% 29%
43% State legislatures 33% 50% 47%
Sept: 28%
26%
Supreme Court Judges Congressional vote

State legislatures
58
AB9. Does the decision make you more likely to vote in the midterms for a democrat, for a republican or not affect how you vote in the midterms?
CALIFORNIA LAW
59
VOTERS ARE SPLIT ON CALIFORNIA'S NEW WAGE LAWS AND BELIEVE WORKERS’
WAGES SHOULD BE SET BY COMPANIES, NOT GOVERNMENT BOARDS
Do you favor or oppose setting fast food worker wages at Do you think fast food worker wages should be set by the
$22 an hour as proposed in California? companies or by a state board as proposed in California?
59%
49% 51%
41%
Favor Oppose Set by companies Set by a state board
DEM GOP IND/OTH DEM GOP IND/OTH

Favor 73% 29% 43% Set by companies 51% 67% 60%
Oppose 27% 71% 57% Set by a state board 49% 33% 40%
CAL1xOct22: Do you favor or oppose setting fast food worker wages at $22 an hour as proposed in California?
60
CAL2xOct22: Do you think fast food worker wages should be set by the companies or by a state board as proposed in California?
MAJORITIES WANT PART TIME AND GIG ECONOMY WORKERS TO BE ALLOWED TO

REMAIN INDEPENDENT CONTRACTORS
Do you think that part time workers like Uber drivers Do you think standards for being an independent
should be allowed to remain independent contractors or contractor should be loosened to allow more gig workers
required to be treated as employees? or tightened to require more to be treated as employees?
65% 56%
44%
35%
Loosened to allow more gig workers

Remain independent contractors
Tightened to require more gig workers to be treated
Treated as employees as employees
CAL3xOct22: Do you think that part time workers like Uber drivers should be allowed to remain independent contractors or required to be treated as employees?
61
CAL4xOct22: Do you think standards for being an independent contractor should be loosened to allow more gig workers or tightened to require more to be treated as employees?

October Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll

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Field Dates: October 12-13, 2022 1

Results were weighted for age within gender, region,

LESS THAN A THIRD OF VOTERS SAY % Who Say “Right Track”

GOP 11% 14% 13% 14% 15% 9% 12% 13% 14%

% Who Say “Right Track”

GOP 11% 13% 13% 11% 12% 8% 11% 12% 13%

TODAY, ONLY A THIRD BELIEVE THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STRONG

How strong do you think the U.S. economy is today?

MOST AMERICANS SAY THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATION IS WORSENING

“No opinion” removed

84 PERCENT OF AMERICANS SAY THE U.S. IS IN A RECESSION NOW OR WILL BE IN ONE

18% 23% 22% 23% 23% 23%

May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Sep 22 Oct 22

Will avoid a recession Optimistic Pessimistic About the same

President Biden Overall Approval

20% 18% 17% 21% 20% 18% 19% 21%

21% 21% 20% 19%

DEMOCRATIC PARTY APPROVAL HAS PLATEAUED AFTER RISING, NOW AT 46%

Democratic Party Approval “Don’t know” removed

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job?

11% 10% 9% 8% 10% 9% 7% 7% 8% 11% 9%

23% 23% 22% 25%

MOST FAVORED POLITICAL FIGURES Favorable Unfavorable

Kamala Harris 19% 21% 38% 2% 8%

Political Figures Hillary Clinton 17% 21% 37% 1% 9%

Ted Cruz 15% 23% 26% 5% 18%

Nancy Pelosi 14% 19% 42% 3% 9%

INSTITUTIONS Favorable Unfavorable

U.S. Military 43% 37% 5%1% 9% U.S. Military 79% 11% 68

Amazon 37% 40% 6%1%7% Amazon 77% 15% 62

Police Police 68% 23% 45

of Institutions Ukraine 23% 37% 11% 2% 17% Ukraine 60% 21% 39

FBI 20% 34% 16% 1% 12% FBI 54% 33% 21

Facebook 22% 31% 21% 1% 10% Facebook 53% 37% 16

Antifa 5% 9% 39% 12% 22% Antifa 14% 52% -38

Russia 5% 8% 56% 2% 13% Russia 13% 72% -59

INFLATION, THE ECONOMY, AND IMMIGRATION DOMINATE AS TOP ISSUES FACING

DEMOCRATIC PARTY LEADERS SEEN AS DISCONNECTED FROM THE TOP ISSUES;

61% OF VOTERS SAY THEY WILL DEFINITELY VOTE IN THE MIDTERMS

Always 44% Definitely going to vote 61%

Usually 19% Probably going to vote 15%

Sometimes 20% May or may not vote 13%

Rarely 10% Probably not going to participate 5%

Never 7% Definitely not going to participate 5%

S4. How often do you vote in Congressional midterm elections?

Democrat Republican 55+ 49% 58%

Inflation 74% 22% 4%

Inflation 48% 36% 16%

CRIME IS STILL A STRONG, POTENTIALLY SLEEPER, ISSUE IN THE FINAL STRETCH

Rising Dropping Staying the same Woke politicians Other factors

Column % DEM GOP IND/OTH Column % DEM GOP IND/OTH

VOTERS ARE MORE ATTRACTED BY THE REPUBLICAN PLATFORM THAN THE

Appeal Not appeal Appeal Not appeal

Legitimate Illegitimate Legitimate Illegitimate Legitimate Illegitimate

MOST SAY THEY HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT BIDEN’S MENTAL FITNESS

He is mentally fit Showing he is too old

TRUMP IS A CLEAR FAVORITE IN A PROSPECTIVE GOP PRIMARY; DESANTIS CONTINUES

Donald Trump 55% Ron DeSantis 40%

Mike Pompeo 2% Mike Pompeo 3%