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A Priori Probability Probability estimate made prior to receiving new information.

Bayes’ Theorem The formula for conditional probability under statistical dependence.
Classical Probability The number of outcomes favorable to the occurrence of an event divided by the
total number of possible outcomes.
Collectively Exhaustive Events A list of events that represents all the possible outcomes of an
experiment.
Conditional Probability The probability of one event occurring, given that another event has occurred.
Event One or more of the possible outcomes of doing something, or one of the possible outcomes
from conducting an experiment.
Experiment The activity that results in, or produces, an event.
Joint Probability The probability of two events occurring together or in succession.
Marginal Probability The unconditional probability of one event occurring; the probability of a
single event.
Mutually Exclusive Events Events that cannot happen together.
Posterior Probability A probability that has been revised after additional information was obtained.
Probability The chance that something will happen.
Probability Tree A graphical representation showing the possible outcomes of a series of experiments
and their respective probabilities.
Relative Frequency of Occurrence The proportion of times that an event occurs in the long run when
conditions are stable, or the observed relative frequency of an event in a very large number of trials.
Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
Statistical Dependence The condition when the probability of some event is dependent on, or affected
by, the occurrence of some other event.
Statistical Independence The condition when the occurrence of one event has no effect on the prob-
ability of occurrence of another event.
Subjective Probability Probabilities based on the personal beliefs of the person making the prob-
ability estimate.
Venn Diagram A pictorial representation of probability concepts in which the sample space is repre-
sented as a rectangle and the events in the sample space as portions of that rectangle.

number of outcomes where the event occurs

4-1 Probability of an event p. 158
total number of possible outcomes
This is the de nition of the classical probability that an event will occur.

P(A) probability of event A happening p. 165

A single probability refers to the probability of one particular event occurring, and it is called
marginal probability.
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P(A or B) probability of either A or B happening p. 167

This notation represents the probability that one event or the other will occur.

4-2 P(A or B) P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) p. 166

The addition rule for events that are not mutually exclusive shows that the probability of A or
B happening when A and B are not mutually exclusive is equal to the probability of event A
happening plus the probability of event B happening minus the probability of A and B happen-
ing together, symbolized P(AB).
4-3 P(A or B) P(A) + P(B) p. 167
The probability of either A or B happening when A and B are mutually exclusive equals the
sum of the probability of event A happening and the probability of event B happening. This is
the addition ride for mutually exclusive events.
4-4 P(AB) P(A) P(B) p. 172
where
P(AB) joint probability of events A and B occurring together or in succession
P(A) marginal probability of event A happening
P(B) marginal probability of event B happening
The joint probability of two or more independent events occurring together or in succession is
the product of their marginal probabilities.
P(B | A) probability of event B, given that event A has happened p. 176
This notation shows conditional probability, the probability that a second event (B) will occur
if a rst event ( A ) has already happened.
4-5 P(B | A) P(B) p. 176
For statistically independent events, the conditional probability of event B, given that event A
has occurred, is simply the probability of event B. Independent events are those whose prob-
abilities are in no way affected by the occurrence of each other.
P(BA)
4-6 P(B|A)
P(A)
and
P(AB)
P(A|B) p. 181
P(B)
For statistically dependent events, the conditional probability of event B, given that event A
has occurred, is equal to the joint probability of events A and B divided by the marginal prob-
ability of event A.
4-7 P(AB) P(A|B) P(B)
and
P(BA) P(B | A) P(A) p. 183
Under conditions of statistical dependence, the joint probability of events A and B happening
together or in succession is equal to the probability of event A, given that event B has already
happened, multiplied by the probability that event B will happen.