‘Tourism Management 9 (2022) 104624 ELSEVIER Cates ns waa a ScienceDirect Tourism Management journal homepage: www elsevier com/locate/tourman Hidden economic counterflows in post-COVID international wildlife tourism Ralf Buckley , Alienor L.M. Chauvenet Scho of omnes Unibet 4222, Arai cs ‘Wie our om developed nations generate a previously denied economic counter, derived fom Kove the econo value of oe mental heals gana cased bck to counts of ogin pos rcaion. Ft rae taster and southern Atti counterion festnated at US8100 bilion pet aan Tat 2 ines Seta Inger an oral tnconty totem exper nthe destaon nats, nd aso nes age al ieee evelpent ld they resve. Pox-COVIDtecoely of tout, menial bath, eoneration and Eomnuiy rae frogiame in developing natn, and the economls of bth developing at developed nations can al bene a fom elaigraton of nernronl wie tren 1. Introduction Many developing countries depend economically on inbound tourism from developed nations. During 2020-2021, the COVID-19 pandemic affected international tourism through health and safety ‘concer, national restrictions on visitor entry and citizen exit, ad flow “onefects 10 alines and the entre rourism sector (UNWTO, 20225 Yang, Zhoits, & Rickly, 2021). This led to greatly reduced budgets for com iminity development and national parks agencies in developing nations, “supported historically by inlaws of foreign exchange fom international tourism (Buckley, 2020; Bates etal, 2071), Post-COVID, international wildlife tourism from North Amerien and Europe to East and Southern Afri is expected ro resume. Here we consider economie benefits o developed nation counties of origin, associated with this international outbound tourism. Some of these, sich as income for national airlines and for outbound cravel ‘agents and tour operators, are straightforward and transparent, and we ddo not re-consider them here. We focus instead on # previously un Identified benefit, hidden economie cownterlaw from tourism dest nations to tourist countries of origin, derived from the mental healt ‘gins of tourists. Tiss economic Vale cated by recwening tourists, ‘and accruing not to themselves, but tothe economies oftheir countries ‘of origin. To illustrate is public policy significance, we estimate it magnitude for the Afrlan wildlife tonrism sector, focussing fst on * Conesponding author Kenya aad Tanzania, aud then the whole of sub-Saharan Aftica 2. Theoretical framework: human capital ‘our calculations fall within the long-standing theory of human capital (Becker, 1964; Weisbrod, 1961), which pervades the structure of ‘moder societies. This theory analyses the economle value of individuals to other pars of society, sich as employers or natonel treasuries. It underpins management theories of human resources. It is used to calculate economic values of unpaid labour such as domestic house keeping, and co drive public investments such as education (Becker, 1961; Grosse & Zhou, 2021), It forms the bass for salary negotiations, sportsperson transfer fees (leifieit & Follert, 2021), and health eco homies (Rice © Cooper, 1967), ineuding national healthcare programs, health insurance, evaluation of novel therspies, and the effects of COVID-19 (ial, Alem, Sharp, Ursuly & Loughnane, 2022), Tehas also been used very widely in tourism researeh (Cros, Ridderstaat, Ba, & Zientara, 20215 Divisekera & Nguyen, 20185 Elshamouby & Elban 2021; Stojié, Mikulé, & Vizek, 2022) It's essentially a form of accounting, where each individual is ana lysed as an asset, with current accrued and marginal future net valies (Grosse, Krueger, & Pike, 2019): essentially, a bag of eas that external stakeholders such as eduentors, employers, or governments, ean ad to or withdraw from (Dublin & Lotka, 1990). The net value may be postive Email addres ac buckley goal com, rbucley@gutith edu au (R Bele), schauvenetagytich ed au (ALM. Chausene). ps /doLor/10.1016,)xounnan.2022 104624 Received 16 March 2022 Received in revised frm 22 June 2022; Acepted 5 July 2022 ‘Availabe online 12 July 2022 (0261.5177/© 2022 Fee Lid, All ight serve,Bahn 2 ALM Chane ‘or negative, and it travels with the individual. For example, national programs to encourage migration of specific categories of skilled of ‘unskilled labour iavolve intentional international trasers of numa capital. The transfer analysed tere Is unintentional, but otherwise sina |. Mechanism of economic counterflow ‘The economic mechanism for this counterflow is as follows. Poor mental health cost 109% of global GDP pre-pandemie (ickley et 9, 201% MeDaid,Paaky & Walbeek, 2019), through decreased workplace productivity, increased healdicare expenditure, and arange of antisocial bbhaviours, Most ofthese econonsie costs ate incurred in developed and newly industrialised nations, that jointly contribute 1% of global GDP. Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, poor mental health has expanded ‘greatly, and now affects >40% of populations in developed nations, 3 {Umes pe. pancemic proportions (Brill, Klotbicer, alive, & Reich, 2021; Occhipint et al, 2021; Santonio eta, 2021), Visiting nature improves mental health (Fesicr Jones etal, 20205, ‘white etal, 2021), ane this generates an economic value for protected areas, a health services value, estimated at ~ USS6 trillion per annum. worldwide (Buckley es, 2019). Holidays aso contribute to tourist wellbeing and mental health (Buckley, 20228), persisting as post-vacation workplace wellbeing (De Bloom, Geurs, se Kompier, 2013; Packer, 2021; Sonnentag, Cheng, & Parker, 2022; Syrek, Weigelt, Kiel, & de Bloom, 2018). Effects on post vacation economic pro: ‘ductivity remin co be quate. Intemational parks, nature and wildlife ronrists from developed (0 developing nations gain mental heath benefits from visiting protected ‘areas in the destination counties. These benefits ate initiated during the holiday itself, but they persist for some time after it ends. Therefore, tourists carry the economic value ofthese benefits back to thelr cour tries of origin, where they lead co inereased workplace productivity tedhced healthcare expenditure, and improved prosocial behaviours post olay. These effects are additional to the individual benefits co {he tourists themselves, which are paid for in the price of holidays. They are also additional tothe economic impacts of dircet tourism expendi ture, in either originating or destination country. They represent eco: nomic transfers from developing to developed-nation economies. We refer to these transfers, defined as above, as economic counter: ‘Hows Fist ey are economic flows, Le. transfers of economic value With identifiable sources, cansmission mechanisms, and recipients ‘whose magnitude omn be identified precisely with adequate dats, and {at are financially realised by ecipients, Second, dey are counterflows, in the sense dat they are in the opposite direction tothe more visible and well understood foxes of foreign exchange associated wih tourism, from developed ro developing nations, through market purchases of international wildlife holidays, These counterflows occur nt ns tect ‘ash cranes, but through the medium of embedded man capital the ‘economic value of improved mental health of tourists returning to their ‘countries of origin. 4. Estimating magnitude of eounterflows ‘We can approximate the valve ofthese counterflows, using wii tourism to Kenya and Tanzania as demonstration ease studies. A typical ‘one-week safari holiday inchides ~50-60 h spent in nature. We do not ‘yet have any quantitative metsure ofthe intensity of experience (Si, “Tang, & Nevin, 2020) for parks aad wildlife touris in Africa, relative to the imensity for domestic nations park tourism in developed nations. Porentilly, it may be ether higher or lower, for different individual tourists. Some individual tourists may have bed experiences, with net loss of wellbeing. On average, however tourists have good experiences, with gains in satisfaction and wellbeing: if they did not, courism as & discretionary activity would not persist. ‘Mental health benefits of nature increase with biodiversity (Ferro Tet Mangere 9 (2022) 109606 eral, 2020; Methorst etal, 2021; Reining, Lemiens, & Doherty, 2021); and qualitative analyses of wildlife tourism experiences demonstrate strong sensory and emotional responses (allantye, Packer, & Suer land, 2011; Buckley, 2022); Buckley 4 Mossez, 2018; Lee, Kruger, Whang, Uysal, & Sirgy, 2014), Therefore, itis kely that the intensity of experience during an Avican wildlife safari i substantially higher than for visits to domestic national parks, We shall not know just how neh higher, until we have an extensive set of new empirical data fom actual wildlife tourists. Here, therefore, we assume conservatively that itis the sate, This gives us @ mininmm estimate, sufficient to show that more detailed farue research would be worthw Front Fig. 2 of Buckley et al, (2018), $0-60 national park nature experienee creates a per capita health service of ~0.06 qualty-adjusted life-yonrs, QALY, Mean economic values, $/QALY, have boon caetated for many countries, by integrating actual henltheare expenditures, rom all sources, across a wide range of medical conditions, and measuring the resulting improvements inpatient life quality and capability. QALYS and $/QALYs are standatd measures in health economies (ick ley et 2019; MeDaid etal, 2019). ‘The valuations by fickloy etal. (2019) were derive from shore pak Visits spread out over a year, nota single concentrated experience as for wildlife safari, This way affect net mental health benefits (Check, King, {© Tang, 20225 Strjbose es, 2021), We do noc yet have any quant tative measure forthe digation of mental health bens From wildlife safari holidays specifically. We can assume conservatively that ii the samte as forthe muuch lower key vacation experiences where fade-in and fade-out of wellbeing effets have been aieasured (Choa, Hang, & Petrik, 2016; Kroesen & Handy, 2014 Sousa & Gongalves, 2021), For developed nations, estimates range from a few months 10a few years including pre-trip fade-in as well as post-trip fade-out (Gump, Hska, Pressman, Patk, & Bennskas, 2021; Mits & Kroesen, 20205 Yu, Smale, & Xiao, 2021). Assuming & duration of | months this reduces snnuslize per capita AQALY for East Aftican parks and wildlife safari holidays to ~0.015. Consensus estimates of $/QALY in developed countries, the economic value ofa quality adjusted life year, are > U8$200,000 (Buckley etal 2019), 500.015 QALY is worth ~ USS3000. Tha is the mean economic value, 10 developed countries of origin, of dhe mental health gains cerned by each tourist who takes an Aftican wildlife holiday. 1 is @ transfer to country-of origin national economies ational to any grins perceived by each individual tourist 5. Beonomic contest of counterflows ‘AC 2019 joint annual visitation of 8.88 milion (Word Bank, 2022), this created a hidden 2019 counterflow of USS10,7 billion pa. fron Kenya and Tanzania to the economies of developed tions, pitcipally those of Eueope and North America. That is 2.5 greater than Coal 2019 imcountry tourist spending in Kenya and Tanzania (World Bak, 2021), whieh was USS4.29 billion p.s, US$1200 per tourist, For sub Saharan Afrien as a whole, with 2019 tourism income US $44.9 billion (World Bonk, 2021), this indicates @ corresponding coun: terflow of —US5100 billion per annum, allowing for some ine Continental tourism within southern Aftica, That i ~2.5 times total bilateral and mulileral development ald to sub Saharan Afri, which was USS41.2 billion in 2019 (World ak, 2021) ‘Total tourist expenditure also includes components that donot reach destination countries, Costs fora 7-day package wildlife tourism holiday n Kenya or Tanzania range from ~USS2500 per person for low season, budget bracket, to > US810,000 for peak season, luxury evel (Discover Aiea, 20225 Goronftica, 2022), with a typfeal figure around US$6000 (friean Saferi Home, 2022). Intemational airfares and visa costs, at least USS1000 per person, are additional That is, the value that indi vidual tourists ascribe to their African wildlife holidays is about twice the ecanoatie value of mental health benefits transferred to non tourists sectors in their countries of origin. That counterfiow, however, IsButy ALM Chae ‘nonetheless substantial 1 of counterflows (6. Policy impli ‘There are several implications for public poley. Fist, note that tis, ‘counterflow isa side effect of the main market transactions invalved in Alcan wildlife tourism. Individual rouists pay ditecty forthe costs of their holidays, and reap individual benefits. The travel and tourism in dustry benefits direetly from that expenditure. Destination nations ‘benefit from: in-country expenditures, which constitute about 20% ofthe Total. The counteriow calculated here $8 a real cash benefit to the ‘economies of countries of origi, but It lows ro non tourism sectors, vl an indirect mechanism. [¢eannot easily be captured vie market mea ‘sures, Deca toes not aceie to the individuals incurring the tours expenditures, Destiation countries commonly charge fees for tourists © visit, protected areas. These are part of the market price of holidays. Price is, not the only determinant of competitiveness, but if fees and hence prices were inereased, dentand might be reduced if tourists were to shift co ‘competing destinations. In theory, African wildlife tourism destination, ‘countries could all inerease park fes simultaneously. This is unlikely, however, since they compete for tourists, and since mean in-country tourist expenditure liffers considerably: USS1200 in Keaya and “Tanzania, cf USS290 in Botswana and Namibia, AS enlesated above, per capita economie counterflow value of mental health benefits is several Limes larger than these expenditures; and it does not acerue to the tourists themselves, but i eatied to their countries of origin. A miore fruitful approach, therefore, may be to focus ot public fouding mechanisms, notably international development assistance. As Intemational tourism to the global South reopens during 2022/23, the ‘magnitude of this hidden economic counteflow means thatthe global North would still make a net economic gain even if i doubled its aid ing, specifically to Southern conservation efforts. The developed Tourist countries of origin are wealthier than the developing destination ‘countries, and already provide bilateral and multilateral development ‘id. If recipient governments will not accept oficial development ‘assistance, ODA, that is earmarked for parks and wildlife agencies, ading could go instead via private, communal, and non-government ‘conservation organisations. These are already importane contributors to wildlife conservation via private conservation reserves, technical ‘assistance, and measures to counteract illegal interaational wilde trade, but they are currently underfunded, 7. Resentch priorities From a theoreticel perspective, our findings represent a novel cate: gory of international transfer of human capital value, derived fom ‘mental health gains from experiences in @ tourist destination country, that ate carried by tourists back to their countries of origin, where they ‘generate economic gains. This i the fist cme that this meehaniso has been identified, Our calculations are for Aican wildlife tourisa as & demonstration example, The same mectanism applies for all types of leisure coursn and recreation, omesticas well as international, but itis ‘more difficult to distinguish the effects of tourism specifically. ‘The calculations above are approximate, Because two Key compo: tents are estiniated frou other sectors ofthe tourism industry: atental health benefits from developed country park visits, and post holiday fade-out trajectories from low-key Toeal vacatons. To improve the ac ‘curacy of economic counterflow valuations, therefore, the key research priorities are to make these measurements for wildlife tourism specif: jeally. Research in both those fields will lso be relevant to tne ents field of ourism wellbeing and mental health (Berbekow', Uysal Ass 20713 Buckley, 20229,0), Very topieal duting post-COVID recovery. Tet Mangere 9 (2022) 109606 Impact statement International wildlife tourism generates economic benefits for ‘developed counties of origin, as well as developing destination nations, through transfer of mental health benefits. These transfers are estimated sat ~ USS100 billion per annum pre-COVID. They provide a new and additional argument fo increase international aid for conservation in veloping nations, and to reinvigorate the wildlife tourism sector as @ component of post-COVID recovery. Credit author statement RB: Concepiualization; Methodology; Writing Writing dra original drat; review & editing. 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Anette teweengec/ Ee space and etal eal aera 18 fount eee Roary 11 8508 World Bok (2021 fermen are rer ofr, b/s wan cinder SEINTARVL Doveeded oO irc 2022, Yang, hang, Xe Ruy, AL 2028) & review of ey COVID.A9 exch Tour Anna of Tur sch 9, Ae WSN Ay Sul hy Xa I QO), Eramling the change ia wel fling 4 at. Turon Mangement 7, Ate TAS, Resear a ith atest, Aus. Hs cuter Irs orn etl health benef tse ud vet ‘Sur, aod scone bent aoe coer ‘CEnvonment Snes o Gat Unt pect ‘i saad abd numeral pps