Session 5

Theory of Change
Dr. Erica LEE
Learning Objectives
• Introduce the theory of change
• Explain the theory of change
Social Impact Canvas ｛

Problem Statement

Stakeholder Theory of Value Level 1 Level 4

Change Proposition (Affective States) (Results –
Benchmark / Unit
cost / Valuation)

Level 2
(Knowledge,
Skills, Attitudes)

Logic model Level 3

(Behavioral Change)

Condition

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Structure of the Social Impact Canvas ｛

WHY WHAT
• Problem • L1 Affective States
understanding • L2 Knowledge, Skills, Attitudes
• Theory of Change • L3 Behavioral Changes
• L4 Results
• Conditions: improved,
HOW environmental enhanced,
• Stakeholders more supported that lead to
• Value Proposition better human lives
• Logic Model

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Theory of Change (ToC)
Theory of Change (ToC)

• The most basic form for a Theory of Change is an “If/Then”

statement – “If we do X, then Y should follow as a result.”
The weight-loss example
• I could stand to lose about 20 pounds. But unless I have a plan of action,
that’s just a wish (or a hope).
• But if I decide to watch my diet more carefully and exercise more, then I
have a plan.
1. My Theory of Change is that additional exercise and a more conscientious
diet will result in weight loss.
Or
2. If/Then format, if I eat right and exercise more, then I will lose weight.
Theory of Change (ToC)
• My theory needs to be based on some sound thinking, and hopefully some
sort of external validation.
• In other words, the theory can’t be based just on our own ideas but needs to
have some sort of proven logic behind it (Anderson, 2014).

• There is plenty of evidence that diet and exercise lead to weight loss
• On the other hand, a Theory of Change that eating more ice cream will lead
to weight loss might be hard to defend.
• https://diytoolkit.org/tools/theory-of-change/
Theory of Change (ToC)
• To identify all the assumptions that are included in the theory (Anderson,
2014).

1. One of the assumptions in my weight-loss theory is that I want to lose

weight.
2. Another is that I am physically capable of exercising.
3. Other assumptions include my ability to acquire healthy food, monitor my
caloric intake, and manage the various emotions that come with diet and
exercise (quite a long list for such a simple theory).
https://www.fses.hk/_ul/1504863721.pdf
Example
Let’s take juvenile literacy as an example.
• You’ve developed a relationship with a group of folks, and together you’ve
determined that the youth in this community are not reading at the appropriate
level.
• In response to this expressed need, you decide to develop an after-school
program to improve students’ reading skills.
• A simple Theory of Change in this situation might be that the introduction of
an after-school tutoring program will help students improve their skills.
Example
• First, this theory does not identify a specific population.
• a better theory would say that students in grades 3–8 in the Hollins Market
neighborhood of West Baltimore would benefit from an after-school tutoring
program.
• More critically, the reasons why this after-school program should work are not
readily identified.
• finding some sort of independent research that shows that after-school reading
programs are effective would help
Example
• In order to improve the odds that your specific program will produce the desired
result,
1) you need to identify specific programs that have worked on the issue of reading
proficiency,
2) and find out what has worked and what hasn’t worked.
• Since this issue is fairly common, it’s likely that there is some fairly strong
research that’s been done in this area (and if you’re unsure about how to find
that research, your local reference librarian will be happy to help!).
Example

Measuring your social impact: Theory of Change

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpb4AGT684U&t=1s
https://planetb.com.au/2019/05/14/a-simple-guide-to-the-theory-of-change-model/
Example
What about the assumptions that go into this
Theory of Change?
• In order to read, one must be able to concentrate. But that gets hard if you are hungry.
And we know that hunger is more prevalent in challenged neighborhoods. So, this
particular Theory of Change assumes that the student can concentrate, which may not
be the case.
• Other assumptions include the ability to access the appropriate materials and
instructors as well as adequate facilities that are conducive to learning and easily
accessible (sometimes referred to as “mobilization”; Blum, 1974).
What about the assumptions that go into this
Theory of Change?
• One of the trickiest assumptions is that the students will be open to the instruction
provided in the program. Experts in the field refer to this as “impetus” or
“motivation” (Blum, 1974).
Just like I need to be motivated to lose weight, the student in the reading program needs
to be motivated to learn.
• Assumptions may also exist in the various legal and social structures present in
the community (Blum, 1974).
 Theory of Change ｛
Name of the theory

Intervention strategy
(What you do)

Result(s)
(What you get)

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Reserved.
 Example
Building Adult Capabilities to Improve Child
• This 5-minute video depicts a theory of
Outcomes: A Theory of Change change from the Frontiers of Innovation
community at Harvard University for
achieving breakthrough outcomes for
vulnerable children and families.

• It describes the need to focus on building

the capabilities of caregivers and
strengthening the communities that together
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urU-
form the environment of relationships
a_FsS5Y essential to children’s lifelong learning,
health, and behaviour.
https://familyservices.org.au/our-theory-of-change/
 Sample – Understand the Problem
A Job Placement Program for Youth ｛

Problem Analysis What is the problem? Youth unemployment

à Failure of transition to adulthood
à Failure to establish identity, autonomy, security

Where does it exist? Hong Kong

Who are affected by it? Dropout Youth, SEN students, Wandering Post-secondary
students, and Deprived youths (The total no. is over
120,000)

When does it occur? Over the last 10 years

How serious is it? Many NEET youths have emerged in recent years.

(To what degree is it felt?)

Problem Statement In HK, over 120,000 youths, who include drop out youths, SEN students, those wandering in sub-degree programs,
and deprived youths, have had difficulty in securing employment over the last 10 years.

Root Cause School-based management à The education system is too examination-oriented.

Assessed Needs Comparative needs: The youths excluded by the mainstream of the education system need more tailored
guidance for personal / career development than their counterparts who remain in the mainstream.

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 Clear understanding of the problem ｛
à identify needs à help you identify a more
effective solution.
Understand the Problem Needs
• Understand the problem by 1) drafting a • Needs at the individual level based on Maslow’s
problem statement and 2) identifying the Hierarchy of Needs
root cause of the problem
• Problem statement à Use 5W to define the
problem precisely
• Root cause of the social problem:
• Methodologies: research, why-why
analysis, multi-level analysis,
theoretical analysis
• Needs at the societal level:
• Tools for analysis: Cause-and-effect
diagram, brainstorming, or nominal • Comparative needs
group technique • Normative needs
• Felt needs
• Expressed needs

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Sample - Theory of Change (TOC)
A Job Placement Program for Youth ｛

Name of the theory Kolb’s Theory of Experiential Learning

Intervention
strategy (What you
do)

Source: https://www.learning-theories.com/experiential-learning-kolb.html

Result(s) Participants would learn about

(What you get)
their career aspirations and job skills in
a more effective manner.
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Theory of Change (ToC) models
• Theory of Change (ToC) models are broader, “big picture” models that help
strategically work through how an organization thinks about change and the
rationale for why an organization operates as it does.
• ToC models can help serve as a roadmap for social entrepreneurs as early as the
ideation phase to intentionally think through the complexity of social change.
• ToC models can help test assumptions, which can help social entrepreneurs think
more at the organizational, community, or systems levels.

• The Theory of Change outlines an intent.

• The Logic model outlines a way to achieve the intent.
Example

Theory of Change

https://vimeo.com/88053672?embedded=true&source=vimeo_logo&owner=44
04611
 How to use it
1. Start by noting down the main problem you want to solve, and also your long-term vision on the
change you want to accomplish
2. complete the other boxes, such as your key audience and your entry point to reach that
audience.
**Try to be as specific as possible because it will help you to come up with more effective actions
that you can take.
3. Write down the people that are most affected by the issue that you’ve identified and who you
hope to help with your work – this could be a small community group or a large organization.
4. Where to start your work, you may need to find a place, a person, or a thing that will be your first
port of call.
**Try to think of some practical steps that you can take to make changes – like creating
partnerships, or making tweaks to existing processes. Try to keep these as action-oriented as
possible.
How to use it
5. what would the immediate results or outcomes be?
• These could be tangible results that you can show to other people to clarify how your
work is making a difference.
• List the key outcomes that your activity would lead to:
• these are the pre-conditions that you need to realize your vision.

• As you fill each of the boxes in the worksheet, it is critical to also reflect on the key
assumptions that underpin these steps in your work. This may help you to spot
potential risks or connections between the different projects.
 Activity 1
In this exercise, you will have the opportunity to use a ToC model. Visit https://diytoolkit.org/media/Theory-of-
Change-Size-A2.pdf to find a printable PDF model and user guide for a ToC model.
A. The ToC model will ask you to start with a problem (left-hand side) and to think about your long-term vision
or goal (right-hand side).
B. Continue working through the different steps of the model, from left to right, and use the guide to help you
through the process, as needed.
C. Under each step, you are asked to unpack your assumptions. How does this portion of the exercise align
well with the essence of the Theory of Change?
D. Work through the entire model and go back to revise your responses as needed.
E. At the end of the process, you are asked to revisit your identified long-term goal. Does it align with the steps
and assumptions made?
F. After completing this model, reflect on the value of the exercise. In your opinion, how might completing a ToC
model be helpful for a social entrepreneur?
Reference
https://aifs.gov.au/resources/practice-guides/what-theory-change

https://www.betterevaluation.org/en/managers_guide/step_2/describe_theory_
of_change

https://planetb.com.au/2019/05/14/a-simple-guide-to-the-theory-of-change-
model/