October 24, 2022

CALENDAR:
The House and Senate are both in recess, and will not return until the middle of November.

BIDEN’S STUDENT LOAN PAYOFF SCAM:

On Thursday, federal district judge Henry Edward Autrey, appointed by George W. Bush,
dismissed the lawsuit brought by six states against the Biden Administration’s student debt
assumption scheme. Autrey ruled that the states did not have standing to sue: “While Plaintiffs
present important and significant challenges to the debt relief plan, the current Plaintiffs are
unable to proceed to the resolution of these challenges.” Judge Autrey did not speak to the
merits of the underlying lawsuit.

One day later, on Friday, the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals took up the case on appeal and
temporarily blocked the Biden Administration’s plans to assume the student loan debts of tens
of millions of borrowers. The court said it would hear the appeal on an expedited basis, with
briefs due from the two sides on Tuesday and Wednesday.

INFLATION:
You know inflation is bad when government agencies’ response to inflation makes news. That’s
what’s happened in the last few weeks as two of the biggest government agencies – the Internal
Revenue Service and the Social Security Administration – have announced adjustments to
schedules and payments they’ll be making to account for this worst-in-40-years inflation.

The Social Security Administration announced that it will be raising the Social Security cost-of-
living-adjustment, or COLA, by 8.7 percent next year.

The Internal Revenue Service announced it would be raising tax brackets by about 7 percent, to
prevent inflation from pushing people artificially into higher tax brackets. Meanwhile,
contribution limits to 401(K) and other tax-deferred retirement plans will rise by a record 9.8
percent.
ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION:
While Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have been getting headlines in
recent weeks for their moves to transport illegal immigrants to Blue State sanctuary cities like
Washington, DC, New York City, and Martha’s Vineyard, Arizona’s outgoing Republican Governor,
Doug Ducey, is no slacker on the illegal immigration and border security front.

Ducey announced Friday afternoon that Arizona has filed a federal lawsuit in the U.S. District
Court for the District of Arizona, asking a judge to step into a dispute over less than a mile’s
worth of shipping containers that, for now, are serving as a makeshift “border wall” in Arizona.

The shipping containers, stacked two containers high, are serving as a barrier along the border.
They were placed there in August. The Biden Administration wants the Arizona government to
remove them. Gov. Ducey says no.

“Arizona is taking action to protest on behalf of our citizens,” Ducey said. “With this lawsuit,
we’re pushing back against efforts by federal bureaucrats to reverse the progress we’ve made.
The safety and security of Arizona and its citizens must not be ignored. Arizona is going to do the
job that Joe Biden refuses to do – secure the border in any way we can. We’re not backing
down.”

Late on Friday evening, in a blatant garbage dump, Customs and Border Patrol released the
September border numbers, revealing there were 227,547 migrant encounters last month.
That’s the highest September in the department’s history. So FY22 ended with 2,378,944
encounters. That’s also the highest number ever, and that does not include gotaways.

Let’s put the September numbers in context. September 2022: 227,547; September 2021:
192,001; September 2020: 57,674. And September 2019: 52,546.

Just as troubling, CBP also released its final numbers on encounters with suspected terrorists:
The Border Patrol encountered 98 nationals on the terrorist watchlist who were found crossing
the U.S.-Mexico border between ports of entry in FY2022. That’s up from a total of 15 in 2021,
and the problem is getting worse – because the data for last month showed that for the first 11
months of the fiscal year, CBP had encountered 78 suspected terrorists, meaning just in the last
month alone they encountered another 20.

THE JANUARY 6 COMMITTEE:

Last week we noted that the January 6 Committee had voted to subpoena former President
Donald Trump, but had not actually issued the subpoena. That, I suggested, would likely occur on
Monday or Tuesday. In the event, it didn’t happen until Friday.

The subpoena asks for documents and testimony. It requests that the documents responsive to
the subpoena be delivered to the committee by November 4, and says the testimony is due by
November 14.
Though we haven’t heard from President Trump’s lawyers on the matter yet, I don’t imagine
he’ll be testifying before the committee. As I noted last week, the last time a House committee
subpoenaed a former president was also the first time a House committee subpoenaed a former
president. It was 1953, and it was the House Committee on Un-American Activities that
subpoenaed former President Harry S Truman. Truman refused to abide by the committee’s
request. Instead, he gave a national speech responding to the committee’s charges, and the
House let the matter drop. So there has never been a Supreme Court ruling on the question of
whether a House committee can compel a former president to testify.

Former Trump White House senior aide and senior campaign strategist Steve Bannon was
sentenced Friday to four months and a $6,500 fine for contempt of Congress for defying a
subpoena from the January 6 Committee. But the judge ruled that Bannon could remain free
while his lawyers appeal the ruling.

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE:

What happens if you’re Russia, and your invasion of Ukraine doesn’t turn out the way you
planned? And it turns out your weapons aren’t powerful enough to do their job, and you’re
running out of them? You turn to your friends. In this case, that means Russia has turned to Iran
for help, and Iran has responded by sending Russia drones that the Russians can use as guided
missiles. Except the Russians don’t really understand the Iranian drones very well, so now there
are Iranian troops – members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps – “directly engaged on
the ground” in Crimea supporting Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian power stations, according
to the White House.

White House spokesman John Kirby said the Biden Administration is looking at imposing new
sanctions on Iran, and is looking for ways to make it more difficult for Iran to sell such weapons
to Russia.

CAMPAIGN UPDATE:
The campaign update is easy – over the last several weeks, it’s become clear that the Democrats’
attempt to shift the campaign argument from the economy and crime to abortion and abortion
have failed. I think there are two reasons for this:

First, raging inflation is something we haven’t seen in 40 years. It’s not like a sluggish economy –
even when we have a recession, and unemployment rises by 3, or 4, or 5 percent, that’s 3, or 4,
or 5 people out of 100 that have lost their jobs. But that means 95, or 96, or 97 didn’t. Inflation,
by contrast, affects everybody. And it doesn’t just affect everybody on those occasions when
they have to make a purchase, it affects them any time they drive down a major thoroughfare
with gas stations, because those big signs with the prices we’re all used to seeing act like
advertisements against the party in power, reminding everyone that even if you’re not buying
gas today, you’re being made aware that gas prices are up significantly.
Second, Democrats are extreme on abortion. At the national level, there are effectively no more
pro-life Democrats. And not only are all Democrats pro-choice, their hard left activists have
made it impossible to be anything but hard left radicals on the issue. So they’re not just pro-
choice, they support abortion for any reason at any time, all the way up until birth, and they
want taxpayers to pay for it. That’s just not where the vast majority of the American public is on
this issue. And a lot of Republican candidates finally figured this out, and figured out how to talk
about abortion in a manner that makes clear to the electorate that when it comes to abortion,
it’s the Democrats who are the real extremists.

The result of these two phenomena is that all over the country, there’s been movement toward
Republican candidates and away from Democrat candidates.

In Arizona, the Real Clear Politics polling average was cut from a 4.5 percent Mark Kelly lead over
Republican Blake Masters to just 2.5 percent. In 2020, the RCP polling average 17 days before
the election was Biden +4. The eventual margin in Arizona was Biden +0.3.

In Georgia, the RCP polling average was cut from a Raphael Warnock lead of 3.3 percent over
Republican nominee Herschel Walker to a Warnock lead of just 2.4 percent. The RCP polling
average 17 days before the 2020 election was Biden +2, and we all know the eventual margin
was +0.3. If neither candidate gets to 50 percent, this election will go to a runoff, and I have to
say that despite their failure to win either of the runoffs in 2021, Georgia Republicans will be
favored to win the race in the runoff based on their history.

In North Carolina, the RCP polling average advantage for GOP nominee Ted Budd has moved
from +1.5 points to +2.8 points. In Ohio, the RCP polling average advantage for GOP nominee J.D.
Vance has moved from +0.7 points to +2.3 points.

In Pennsylvania, the RCP polling average advantage for Democrat nominee John Fetterman has
moved from +3.4 points to +2.4 points. That’s inside the margin of error. In 2020, the RCP polling
average 17 days before the election was Biden +5.6 percent. The eventual margin was +1.2
percent.

In Wisconsin, the RCP polling average advantage for GOP incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson was +2.8.
That’s unchanged from a week ago. In 2020, the RCP polling average 17 days before the election
was Biden +6.1 percent. The eventual margin was +0.7.

So what you see across the board is movement toward the Republican candidates, and away
from the Democrat candidates. And what you see by looking back at the RCP polling average
from two years ago in each of those states, and comparing that to what the actual results were,
will tell you that in each of these battleground states, the RCP polling average tends to show
Democrat candidates about 4 points stronger than they finish.

Which is another way of saying any race where there’s a GOP candidate within 4 points of the
Democrat is a race that’s likely going to end up going to the GOP candidate. And if that’s the
case, we’re looking at a tsunami. Republicans could end up netting one, or two, or even three
seats in the Senate, recapturing control.
And if Republicans are recapturing the Senate, they’re definitely going to recapture the House.
Again, the only real question there is the margin of victory. And based on what we’re seeing
now, it’s looking increasingly like the GOP could get to 240 seats.

SUGGESTED READING
BIDEN’S STUDENT LOAN PAYOFF SCAM:
Taxpayer group asks Supreme Court to halt student debt program

Supreme Court asked to halt Biden student loan debt relief by Wisconsin taxpayers

Federal appeals court temporarily blocks Biden student loan forgiveness program

Federal appeals court temporarily halts Biden’s student debt relief program

INFLATION:
You can keep more money from the IRS next year, thanks to inflation

Inflation Causes IRS to Raise Tax Brackets, Standard Deduction by 7%

IMMIGRATION:
Arizona Gov Ducey won't comply with Biden administration request to remove stopgap border
wall

Biden administration trounces Texas, Arizona in battle of busing, flying migrants across U.S.

Arizona sues Biden administration over border wall: 'We're not backing down'

Record 2.4 million migrants illegally crossed border in FY2022, almost 4 million total under Biden

Court temporarily blocks Biden's student loan forgiveness

Bill Melugin on Twitter

Border Patrol encountered 98 on terrorist watchlist crossing U.S.-Mexico border between ports
of entry in FY2022

THE JANUARY 6 COMMITTEE:

DOJ recommends 6-month jail term for Bannon
Jan. 6 Committee Subpoenas Former President Donald Trump

House Jan. 6 panel issues subpoena for Donald Trump

HUNTER BIDEN INVESTIGATION, CONT’D:

Grassley: Chinese-Government Front Company Paid Biden for Work Done While He Was VP

THE DURHAM INVESTIGATION, CONT’D:

In Danchenko Trial, Durham Exposes How Corrupt FBI Framed Trump

Waiting for Durham

RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE:

Iran Sends Drone Trainers to Crimea to Aid Russian Military

US: Iranian troops in Crimea backing Russian drone strikes

White House seeks more Ukraine weapons support in Senate NDAA

GOP leaders McConnell, McCarthy headed for collision on Ukraine aid

McCarthy warns GOP may cut back Ukraine aid if party wins House

CAMPAIGN UPDATE:
Independent Women Swing Hard Toward GOP Despite Democrats’ Abortion Push

Opinion | What if the 2022 Midterm Falls in the Forest but Nobody Hears?

Midterm Rankings: Here are the 7 Senate seats most likely to flip

Republicans gain steam in Senate battle

MISCELLANEOUS:
House GOP preps bills for first 100 days if Republicans capture majority

CDC Panel Votes to Add Covid-19 Vaccine to Recommended Childhood Schedule

Five investigations House Republicans are plotting if they win majority