PI080 S33

GROUP 3

MAT097

GROUP PROJECT REPORT

TASK 1 : POPULATION OF METRO AREA

RESIDENTS IN JOHOR BAHRU

TASK 2 : AREA APPROXIMATION USING

TRAPEZOIDAL RULE

LECTURER : PUAN NOR HAFIZAH BINTI A HAMID

NO. NAME OF STUDENTS STUDENT ID

1. MOHD AIZAD DANIAL BIN AMER 2020894642

HAMZAH
2. NURDINA ALEYAH BINTI ISMAIL 2020857872

3. NURAIN FARHANAH BINTI RIZMAN 2020495044

4. NUR SABRINA BINTI MOHAMAD ZAINI 2020846242

5. NUR ALYA BALQIS BINTI ROSLAN 2020607886

6. SITI HUMAIRA BINTI NOR HADI 2020457764

 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

First and foremost, we have taken efforts in this case study. However, it would not have been
possible without the kind support and help of many individuals. We would like to extend our
sincere thanks to all of them.

The accomplishment of this case study benefits from the help and direction from our MAT097
lecturer. We would like to express our gratitude towards our beloved lecturer- Puan Nor
Hafizah. Without her encouragement and support, we would not finish this case study in time.
Thank you very much!

Not to forget our parents and members of our families for their kind cooperation and
encouragement which help us in the completion of this case study. Our thanks and appreciation
also go to the people who directly or indirectly helped us out in developing the case study.

Also, not to forget our classmates in Uitm Dengkil who give us guidance to do this wonderful
case study on the topic of Task 1 which is Population of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru
and Task 2 which is Trapezoidal Rule . Thank you so much for everyone because they are
willing to help us to complete this case study.

2
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS 3

LIST OF TABLES 4

LIST OF FIGURES 4

ASSIGNMENTS

1 Task 1 (Population of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru) 5

1.1 Introduction 5
1.2 Implementation 6
1.3 Data Analysis and Discussion 8
2 Task 2 (Trapezoidal Rule) 14
2.1 Introduction 14
2.2 Implementation 15
2.3 Data Analysis and Discussion 19

CONCLUSION 20

RECOMMENDATIONS 21

REFERENCES 21

3
 LIST OF TABLES

Page

Table 1: Population of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru from 2010 to 2020 6

LIST OF FIGURES

Page

Figure 1: Population of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru 8

Figure 2: Particular solution of Population of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru 9

Figure 3: Substitution of x into the f(x) 16

Figure 4: Data set for substitution of x into f(x) for 5 subintervals 16

Figure 5: Data set for the substitution of x into f(x) for 8 subintervals 16

Figure 6: Multiplication of 𝑓(𝑥)value with coefficient 17

Figure 7: Addition of all the values of multiplication of 𝑓(𝑥) with coefficient 17

Figure 8: Data set for the finding of an approximation with 5 subintervals 17

Figure 9: Graph of 𝑓(𝑥)when divided into 5 subintervals 18

Figure 10: Graph of 𝑓(𝑥)when divided into 5 subintervals 19

Figure 11: The graph of 𝑓(𝑥)when divided into 8 subintervals 19

4
ASSIGNMENTS

Task 1 (Population of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru)

1.1 Introduction
Population in a country could be a source of vitality, and it is involved in a variety of
costs to keep up a reasonable standard of living. Our project is focusing on the population of
Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru from 2010 to 2020. Overall, the momentum of Johor
Bahru for fertility rate is increasing. In order to calculate the total population based on a
particular solution in the Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru, we used the exponential decay
method. By using this method, it can help to predict what a population for a country would be
both in the future and past. As for the limitation of this study, we have used Excel and Desmos
to help us plot the graph.

Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru have a population of about 1.024 million people
in 2020 which is the fifth most populated city among the largest cities in Malaysia. There are
only a small number of other cities in Malaysia such as Alor Setar, Kuala Terengganu and
George Town which have low populations of citizens, but none of the stated cities have a great
increase in population. This rapid change in the demographic structure, Metro Area Residents
in Johor Bahru is bound to have stark implications on the society and economy of Johor Bahru.
A thorough examination of the current literature on Johor Bahru's fertility and population issues
revealed that a number of various factors are causing the increasing trend. Some of the factors
found to be impacting the population include the prevailing social circumstances, attitudes, and
practises of the Johor Bahru's people, as well as the economic realities that constrain many
people's decisions.

Therefore the objectives of this case study are:

1. To find a particular equation of differential equation of population in the Metro Area

residents in Johor Bahru from 2010 until 2020.
2. To construct graphs using Microsoft Excel and Desmos Graph method.
3. To describe the factors that affect the human population in the Metro Area residents in
Johor Bahru from 2010 until 2020.

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1.2 Implementation
In task 1 we have chosen the Population of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru in
2010 until 2020 as our secondary data which is obtained from the website Macrotrends.net
.Then, we transfer all the data into a Table 1 under implementation part. From the data, we
plotted the graph of population versus year by using a Microsoft Excel. We start to work on
step 2 which is a particular solution in order to plot an exponential graph using Desmos graph.
Based on the example given in Mathematics Textbook on page 181 we have calculated the
particular solution of the differential equation for growth and got

P(t) = 913,000 𝑒 0.0249𝑡

By using the particular solution in Step 2, we calculated one future value and past value
then we compare it with respect to actual values. Lastly, under the Data Analysis and
Discussion part, the results that we got have been described and discussed. We have solved all
the questions for Task 1 in (Step 3- Step 6) and discussed how our secondary data can
contribute to the wellbeing of the society, community, nation and country.

Table 1: Population of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru from 2010 to 2020

Year Population
2010 807,000
2011 827,000
2012 848,000
2013 869,000
2014 891,000
2015 913,000
2016 936,000
2017 959,000
2018 983,000
2019 1,003,000
2020 1,024,000

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Differential equation method is used in growth or decay problems to show how a species would
grow over time. In this task, a basic differential equation which is a Malthusian growth model
shows how the population of Metro Area residents in Johor Bahru with respect to time. The
Malthusian growth model is given as,

𝑑𝑃
∝ 𝑃
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑃
= 𝑘𝑃
𝑑𝑡

Where P(t) is the total population at time t and k is a constant of proportionality

Let,

P(t) : The number of population of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru

𝑑𝑃
∝ 𝑃
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑃
= 𝑘𝑃
𝑑𝑡
1
𝑑𝑃 = 𝑘𝑑𝑡
𝑃
1
∫ 𝑑𝑃 = ∫ 𝑘𝑑𝑡
𝑃

𝑙𝑛 |𝑃| = 𝑘𝑡 + 𝑐
P = 𝑒 𝑘𝑡 + 𝑐
P = A𝑒 𝑘𝑡 , where 𝑒 𝑐 = 𝐴

t(0) (2015) , P = 913,000

913,000 = A𝑒 𝑘(0)
A = 913,000
The general equation becomes, P=913,000 𝑒 𝑘𝑡

t(1) (2016) , P = 936,000

936,000 = 913,000 𝑒 𝑘(1)

936,000
𝑒 𝑘 = 913,000

7
 936,000
ln 𝑒 𝑘 = ln 913,000
936,000
k = ln 913,000

k = 0.0249
The particular solution now becomes,
P(t) = 913,000 𝑒 0.0249𝑡

1.3 Data Analysis and Discussion

Figure 1: Population of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru

Based on Figure 1, Number of Population of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru in 2010
is the lowest which was 807000 compared to other years. After this year the number of
Population of Metro Area Residents increased linearly with increasing of time. Based on our
research the increasing population each year because of the introduction of the urbanisation
area, high job opportunities in construction, manufacturing and private sectors as well since
2014. These factors contribute to a linearly increasing graph of population of Metro Area
Residents in Johor Bahru.

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 Figure 2: Particular solution of Population of Metro Area Resident in Johor Bahru

(Using Desmos)

Based on Figure 2, the number of populations of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru
increased exponentially with time. This means, the population of Metro Area Residents will
increase with the increasing of time and the population will keep increasing in future as well.

To predict one future value of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru by using particular solution
, we set t=5 (2020)

P(t) = 913,000 𝑒 0.0249(5)

= 1,034,047

To find one value in the past using particular solution, we set t= -5 (2010)

P(t) = 913,000𝑒 0.0249(−5)

= 806,123

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 The future value that we have predicted for 2020 based on the particular solution is 1
034 047. Meanwhile, the past value that we have predicted for the population of Metro Area
Residents in Johor Bahru, in the year of 2010 is 806 123. The actual value of the population of
Metro Area residents in Johor Bahru in the year of 2010 is 807 000. The difference in our
calculation shows that the results that we obtained are not accurate with the actual value. This
is because the calculation and solution that we have calculated earlier is only based on
assumption and not perfectly accurate. It can only give us the average value which is not the
same as the actual value.

From the data we state earlier, we can calculate the percentage error for this data,

𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 − 𝐶𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒

Percentage error %= | | 𝑥 100%
𝐶𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒

𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 − 𝐶𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒

Percentage error for the past value, (2010) = | |𝑥 100%
𝐶𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒

807,000 − 806,123
=| |𝑋 100%
806,123

= 0.1088%

𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 − 𝐶𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒

Percentage error for one future value, (2020) = | |𝑥 100%
𝐶𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒

1,024,000 − 1,034,047
=| | x 100%
1,034,047

= 0.9716%

The past value that we obtained in 2010 based on a particular solution is 806 123 while
the actual value in 2010 is 807 000, with a percentage error of 0.1088%. For 2020, the past
value that we calculated is 1 034 047, while the actual value is 1 024 000, with a percentage
error of 0.9716%.

In 2010, the factors that affected the population growth in Metro Area Residents in
Johor Bahru are low cost of education, social and cultural factors, and state government factors.

During that particular year, educational costs are cheap and very economical. Every
family is freed to enlarge their family size due to the low cost of bringing up and raising
children until they graduate from college. The subsidised education fee from junior schools to

10
college levels by the government has encouraged family members to easily execute family
planning and raise up children members. Parents see this as an opportunity to raise more
educated children with low budgets. Unconsciously, this factor has affected the population
growth in that stated area.

Social and cultural factors also influence the population growth in Metro Area
Residents in Johor Bahru. Based on the Department of Statistics Malaysia 2010, the percentage
of population in Johor Bahru by Chinese and Indian ethnics are 34.73% and 13.70%,
respectively, which sums up to 48.43% which is higher compared to Malay ethnic, which is
48.35%. This large group of other races has a significant impact on the population growth in
Johor Bahru because Indian and Chinese ethnics (before one family policy) had strong social
attachments to having large families. The diversity of social and culture in Metro Area
Residents in Johor Bahru has affected the population growth in that specific area.

Last but not least, the state government also plays a big role in the population growth
of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru. Malaysia has announced its Ninth National Plan in
2006, which its third core is to address continuing socio-economic inequalities constructively
and productively. The objective is to reduce the range of salary income between the rich and
the poor. This plan is expected to achieve its target by 2010 and must be executed by every
state government in Malaysia. This national plan somehow seems promising and stimulates
societies' minds to raising up children and sizing up their family without the fear of getting in
debt regarding childcare. The beneficial incentive created by the national government as stated
in the plan also embolden the resident to have a bigger family.

As in 2020, the number of the population in Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru can
be affected by numerous factors that can lead to an increase and decline of the data. It can be
affected by natural phenomena such as birth and death, and also natural disasters and diseases
that have occured in the past.

As education becomes compulsory, children are also considered economic costs. The
cost of bringing up children provides an incentive to reduce family size. Another reason is work
participation amongst females. Women have often chosen to get married later and delay having
children in this modern era because they prefer to concentrate on their career. Even though
there may be an abundance of resources, many social, political and economic problems have
demographic change as one of their concerns.

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 Population in Johor Bahru sets up new pressures for providing sufficient resources
needed to maintain the human well-being. These include access to education, food, safe
drinking water, electricity, communications, transportations, and health services such as
hospitals and medicines.

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Johor Bahru District is one of the ten districts that make up the state of Johor, Malaysia with
the district capital of Johor Bahru and is one of the most developed districts in the State of
Johor, Malaysia. This district is also known as the Johor Bahru metropolitan district because
in terms of population it has more than 2 million people. The Johor Bahru Metropolitan District
is the third largest metropolitan area in Malaysia after the Klang Valley and Penang. The district
is also part of Iskandar Malaysia and is a rapidly developing metropolis.

Metropolitan Johor Bahru is a major tourist centre in the south of Peninsular Malaysia and has
international tourism centres such as Legoland Malaysia, Puteri Harbor Family Theme Park
and others.

Through this study, it can help the government in planning development in the area. As the
population in the Metro Area residents is increasing from year to year, the government needs
to take initiatives to upgrade the public facilities such as hospitals and schools for the
convenience of the people. In addition, housing areas should be multiplied to avoid homeless
residents. Being at the border connecting Malaysia with Singapore makes a lot of residents in
Singapore like to visit this city during weekends and also school holidays. Some of them also
have chosen to live in Johor Bahru therefore makes the population increase rapidly.

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Task 2 ( Trapezoidal Rule )

2.1 Introduction
2.1.1 Background
Numerical methods are approximation techniques of solving mathematical problems if
cannot be solved analytically. Trapezoidal Rule is one of the example numerical methods. The
main reasons to do numerical integration are when the function is impossible and infeasible to
do the analytic integration. Area under a curve can be found by dividing the area into many
equal trapezoids. From Trapezoidal Rule, we can get a more accurate approximation of area
under a curve compared to rectangles.

The trapezoidal rule sometimes may be viewed as the results from the left and right
Riemann sums. Using partitioning the integration interval, the approximation can be more
accurate which is applying the trapezoidal rule to each subinterval and summing the results.
The more subintervals of the curve, the more accurate value of approximation. The formula of
trapezium is

© Wikipedia

The approximate area under the curve is found by adding the area of all the trapezoids.

© math24

14
 𝑏−𝑎
The interval [a, b] should be divided into n subintervals with equal width h, where ℎ =
𝑛
. So, the total area of the region is

𝑏
ℎ
∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = (𝑦0 + 2𝑦1 + 2𝑦2 + 2𝑦3 +. . . +2𝑦𝑛−1 + 𝑦𝑛)
𝑎 2

For this task, we were given the question:

“Use trapezoidal rule with 5 subintervals and 8 subintervals to find an approximation of

2
∫0 𝑥 3 √−2𝑥 4 + 6𝑥 2 + 12 𝑑𝑥. Give your answers correct to four decimal places.”

2.1.2 Objectives

2
1. To find the approximation of ∫0 𝑥 3 √−2𝑥 4 + 6𝑥 2 + 12 𝑑𝑥 using trapezoidal rule.
2. To compare the value of approximation between 5 subintervals and 8 subintervals.
3. To find out why the values of approximation are different between 5 subintervals and
8 subintervals.

2.2 Implementation

Step involved to solve:

Step 1 : Identify width h of each subintervals.
(𝑏−𝑎) (2−0) 2
h= = = 5 for 5 subintervals
𝑛 5
(𝑏−𝑎) (2−0) 1
h= = = 4 for 8 subintervals
𝑛 8

Step 2 : Determine all the values of subintervals, x .

2 4 6 8
x = 0, 5, 5, 5, 5, 2 for 5 subintervals
1 1 3 3 7
x = 0, 4, 2, 4,1, 2 , 4,2 for 8 subintervals

Step 3 : Find the value of f(x)= 𝑥 3 √−2𝑥 4 + 6𝑥 2 + 12 by substitute the value of x into f(x)

15
 Figure 3: Substitution of x into the 𝑓(𝑥)

Figure 4 : Data set for substitution of x into f(x) for 5 subintervals

Figure 5 : Data set for the substitution of x into f(x) for 8 subintervals.

Step 4 : List all the coefficients of Trapezoidal rule which is 1, 2, 2, 2 … , 2, 1.

Step 5 : Calculate the value of area approximation for each subinterval by multiplying f(x)
value with coefficient.

16
 Figure 6 : Multiplication of 𝑓(𝑥)value with coefficient

Step 6 : Sum up all the value of multiplication of f(x) with coefficient

Figure 7: Addition of all the values of multiplication of 𝑓(𝑥) with coefficient

Step 7 : Calculate the value of area approximation.

Figure 8 : Data set for the finding of an approximation with 5 subintervals

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 2
2 2 4 6 8
∫0 𝑥 3 √−2𝑥 4 + 6𝑥 2 + 12𝑑𝑥 = 5
2
[ f(0) + 2f(5) + 2f(5) + 2f(5) + 2f(5) + f(2) ]
1
= 5 ( 65.39100756 )

= 13.0782

Figure 9 : Data set for the finding of an approximation with 8 subintervals

1
2 1 1 3 7
∫0 𝑥 3 √−2𝑥 4 + 6𝑥 2 + 12𝑑𝑥 = 4
[ [ f(0) + 2f( ) + 2f( ) + 2f( ) + 2f(1) + 2f( ) + f(2) ]
2 4 2 4 4
1
= 8 ( 107.1285098 )

= 13.3911

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2.3 Data Analysis and Discussion

2.3.1 Graph

Figure 10 : Graph of 𝑓(𝑥)when divided into 5 subintervals

Figure 11 : The graph of 𝑓(𝑥)when divided into 8 subintervals

Based on Figure 10 and Figure 11 above, the approximation area under a curve can be obtained
but with different values. The limits for both figures are from 0 to 2. So, the shaded areas are
between 0 and 2. However, these figures give slightly different values of area as Figure 10 has

19
5 subintervals while Figure 11 with 8 subintervals. We can see that Figure 11 has more
trapezium than Figure 10.

2.3.2 Discussion
Based on the calculation and the graph, the actual value of area for this question can be
determined from the desmos graph which is 13.6452275308. However, the actual value can
not be found using trapezoidal rule because it only gives an approximation of the area. For 5
subintervals, we obtained the value of 13.07820151 while for 8 subintervals we got
13.39106372. The absolute error for 5 subintervals was 0.5670260208 with relative error of
4.16%. On the other hand, 1.86% of relative error and 0.2541638108 absolute error with 8
subintervals.
From the calculation of error above, we noticed that the error of 8 subintervals is less
than 5 subintervals. This indicates that the approximation values of area
2
∫0 𝑥 3 √−2𝑥 4 + 6𝑥 2 + 12𝑑𝑥 are more accurate using 8 subintervals. This is because
increasing the subintervals results in decreasing the value of width, h. As the area of trapezium
becomes smaller, the approximation converges to the exact area under the curve. Thus, the
accuracy of 8 subintervals are higher than 5 subintervals. To sum up, as the number of
subintervals increase, the accuracy will increase.

CONCLUSION
In conclusion, many experiences and benefits that we gained from this assignment.
Firstly, for task 1, we gain a lot of information about the Metro Area in Johor Bahru such as its
definition, background, history. Based on statistics, Johor is one of the metropolitan areas after
Kuala Lumpur. Next, we learn the ways to predict the future result of population decay by
using decay problem solutions. Furthermore, in task 2, we master the skills of self-learn
integration. We can use numerical methods to approximate definite integrals using a new
method called trapezoidal rules that we recently discovered. The question that our respective
lecturer has assigned for task 2 can be easily answered using the formula in our calculations
where it provides a better approximate value than does separately. Apart from that, we also
have improved our ICT skills, such as implementing mathematical formulas and computing
solutions as we use the Microsoft excel in order to approximate the definite integrals.

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RECOMMENDATION
For task 1 which is the population growth of Metro Area Residents in Johor Bahru from
2010-2020 , we could see that the calculated data are not accurate with the actual data.
Therefore, we would like to recommend that we need much more accurate population data for
task 1 in order to obtain an accurate calculated value. Thus, we may predict and be ready to
prepare accommodation, facilities and job opportunities and prevent an overflowing
population. For task 2, it is not recommended to use trapezoidal rule to calculate the area under
the curve because the value obtained is underestimated. But we can increase accuracy of the
result by using higher subintervals. Another recommendation is to use a function of straight
line so that we can obtain the exact value under the curve by using trapezoidal rule.

REFERENCES

LibreTexts. (2020, Dec 21). Numerical integration. Math LibreTexts. Retrieved from

https://math.libretexts.org/Courses/Mount_Royal_University/MATH_2200%3A_Calc
ulus_for_Scientists_II/2%3A_Techniques_of_Integration/2.5%3A_Numerical_Integr
ation_-_Midpoint%2C_Trapezoid%2C_Simpson's_rule

Macrotrends. (2021, March 17). Johor Bahru, Malaysia Metro Area Population 1950-2021.
Johor Bahru Population. Retrieved from

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/21804/johor-
bahru/population#:~:text=The%20current%20metro%20area%20population,a%202.0
3%25%20increase%20from%202018

Wikipedia. (2021, March 17). Johor Bahru. Retrieved from

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johor_Bahru

Wikipedia.(2021,January12).Trapezoidal Rule. Retrieved from

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trapezoidal_rule

Worldometer. (2020). Malaysia Demographics 2020 (Population, Age, Sex, Trends). Retrieved
from https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/malaysia-demographics/

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