1-Horizon Scanning

Advanced strategic toolkit 04/10/2022
MSc Global Management
Dr. Valery Michaux – Neoma BS

Industry and Corporate Foresight :
4 distinct phases -> 4 reports
PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4
Industry Industry future Industry Company
horizon exploration scenarios strategic
Scanning building reflection
(strategic options)
Msc Global Management 2022-2023
Advanced Strategic Toolkit
Industry and Corporate

Foresight : Phase 1
INDUSTRY COMPANY
“Horizon scanning” : analyzing
of the current industry dynamic
1 2
Today Agenda
Courses
PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4 plateform
(strategic options)
Instructions
1
Guidance
INDUSTRY COMPANY
3 4
Horizon scanning
 How to spot emerging signals of change
 Collection of a large amount of information
Introduction :
Broaden
your view
Main Goal of the
Horizon Scanning
 Diverse scenarios about changes that might phase
occur in the future
5 6
DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

1
What is currently changing ? What is currently changing ?

DYNAMICS ? PESTEL = collect
7 8
GROUPING -> Avoid the “PESTEL syndrome”

What is currently changing ?
Main axes of transformation ?
9 10
Systemic thinking
GOAL : 6 to 7 major Step 1 - Collect data
transformational axis
Adopt a
systemic
mode
11 12

2
Systemic thinking Systemic thinking
Step 2 – Qualify data Step 2 – Qualify data
Qualification Qualification
Change drivers Transformations Change drivers Industry transformations

Environmental sensibility Recycling & second life products
13 14
Industry Horizon scanning
Systemic view : understand the dynamics of

the sector/industry -> change drivers
 Distinguish between Step 3 – Group

– Change drivers & change actors data
– Profound transformations induced
Accelerators Deep Several

transformations distinct major
Inhibitors – What do they
change? axes of
transformation
15 16
-A-
Qualification of
Data qualification guidance
the Data
17 18

3
Which one ?  Trends ?

Now
Now  Inflection points ?
1 - Notion of trends
 Weak signals ?
Green
19 20
Characteristics of trends Characteristics of trends
 Long-term axis of  Dramatic impacts on  Long-term axis of  Dramatic impacts on

transformations sectors/industries transformations sectors/industries
21 22
E-commerce in France
Trends characteristics
Trends : long & slow
Billions Euros
Trends : long Billon euros France
21 years
23 24

4
E-commerce in France ? Trends : long & slow

Disrupted but not stopped
COVID
14 %
20 years
25 26 26
Characteristics of trends Characteristics of trends
 Long-term axis of  Long-term axis of  Dramatic impacts on

transformations transformations sectors/industries
 Slow
 Robust
Landscape for the future
27 28
E-commerce in France ? Drive different changes throughout the

time
14 %
 2000-2010 : E-commerce emergence
– Impacts
 2010-2015 : multi-channel
– Impacts
 2015 & + : omnichannel
20 years – Impacts
Over the last 20 years, has e-commerce had 2010-
2000-2010 2015
2015
the same impact?
29 30

5
Characteristics of trends Trends -> goal -> landmark for scenarios
14 %
 Long-term axis of  Dramatic impacts on Static

transformations sectors/industries
– Profound
– Transformative
– Evolutive/Not static
20 years
31 32
Impacts Transformative/evolutive
Trends
Trends -> Short term, medium term, High
long term impacts
Green Long term

Medium
Medium term
Short term
Time
33 34
Impacts Transformative/evolutive Impacts Transformative/evolutive

Trends Trends
High High
+++++
+++
Long term Long term
Medium Medium
+
Medium term Medium term
Short term Short term

Low
Time Time
35 36

6

Helps to project into the future Characteristics of trends
14 %
 Future
transformations
induced ?  Long-term axis of  Dramatic impacts on
transformations sectors/industries
 Pace ?
 Slow – Profound
 Robust – Transformative
– Evolutive/Not static
– Future pace and impacts
37 38
Megatrends :
Types of trends structural forces
of change
 Powerful forces of
social,
demographic,
 Megatrends  Industry trends environmental and
technological
changes that are
transforming the
world we live in
 Trans-industry
39 40
Industrial/sectorial Trends : structural 2 - The notion of inflection point

forces of changes at the industry level -> current brutal changes
 Slow long-term axis of transformations

 Dramatic impacts on the sector/industry
 Current
Brown
changes
– Signal that is
changing
currently ->
IMPACTS+
41 42

7
Impacts Impacts
Inflection points -> current brutal changes COVID
High High
Now
Now
Medium Medium
Inflexion point =
Signal of a brutal
acceleration
Inflexion point =
signal of an
emergent trend Time Time
43 44
Impacts
3 – The notion of Weak signals ->
not sure about the future development
High
and potential impacts
Now
 Weak signal
– Early signs of currently
small changes ->
potentially IMPACTS+
Medium
Inflexion point = Orange

Signal of a brutal
slowdown
Time
45 46
Future impacts Future impacts
Mega & Industry

trends
Long term transformations
Inflection Weak signals

Early signal of changes
Points
Current Changes
More certain ? More uncertain ? More certain More uncertain

Uncertainty Uncertainty
47 48

8

Future impacts Horizon scanning
 Horizon scanning may explore
Trends
Emerging trends – novel and unexpected issues
– as well as persistent problems or trends
Accelerations Weak signals  Horizon scanning is
Early signal of changes – the systematic examination
Slowdowns
– of potential threats, opportunities and likely future
developments
– including – but not restricted to – those that are
 at the margins of current thinking
 or that challenge past assumptions
More certain More uncertain
Uncertainty 49 50
-B-
Data collection
guidance Nature of the data
Which type of information?
Nature, Gradularity,…?
What type of analysis?
Where ?
51 52
Qualitative X Quantitative
Exploration
Future ? Past & Present
2 years in the past + today
Present Present
Past Future Past Future
53 54

9
Where can you find information about

industry dynamics?
 Consulting firms websites
– Surveys and studies
 Neoma Library
– Industry Profiles
 Economic, business and financial press -> Europress and
Factiva
– Industry economic news and events
– Companies behaviors
 Specialized journals and specialized websites
– Magazines
Organisation of the data
 Congress
– Reports
collection
 Expert interviews
– Internet - Youtube
55 56
4 or 5 angles of data collection -> 4 or 5 angles of data collection ->

each group member each member
2
1 - Overall industry changes identification and
impacts
2 - Consumer/customer evolution and megatrends
that can influence its behavior in the future Industry
3 – Technologies/new usages & innovations, start- transformations
ups, and new entrants
4 – Current strategic behavior of each industry
actors: focus on incumbent companies and new Overlap 4 5
leading entrants
5 – Identify Main change drivers (accelerators and
inhibitors) and understand the whole dynamics of
the industry
57 58
5 angles of data collection -> each

Group work Project manager
member

2
impacts
that can influence its behavior in the future
Industry
transformations 3 – Technologies/new usages & innovations, start-
4 5 4 – Current strategic behavior of each industry
actors: focus on incumbent companies and new
leading entrants
59
the industry
59 60

10
1 - Overall industry description - Middle view

Objectives Automotive
industry
 Understand the overall structure
– What is the value chain of the sector from the most upstream to
the most downstream?
– Big players : supply, manufacturing, distribution?
 Understand the dynamics of the sector Wholesalers
Suppliers Suppliers Manufacturers Final consumer
– What are the transformations underway? Distributors
Wholesalers
Distributors
The most structuring phenomena ?

Industry/sector value Chain
61 62
The most structuring phenomena : EV

Qualification today ? the sector/industry -> change drivers
 Distinguish between
– Change drivers & change actors
Accelerators Deep
transformations
change?
Qualification in 2010 ?
63 64
2020
European
policy :
Change driver
65 66

11
2022 Local big municipalities

London ahead
20 % plug-in Hybrids by 2035
35 % by 2026
68 % by 2030
Phase out
combustion-
GB – 2030 ! engine
vehicles
official
planning
2030
on average
Londres : 2025 -> Se sont positionnés sur
l’interdiction de l’hybride aussi
67 68
August 2021 – “Loi Climat et Resilience”

2030 the sector/industry -> change drivers
Accelerators
40 towns
69 70

the sector/industry -> change drivers The rise of
Hydrogen
– Profound transformations induced  BFEV: Battery full
electric vehicle
 HEV: hybrid electric
vehicle Qualification ?
Accelerators Deep
 PHEV: plug-in hybrid
transformations electric vehicle
change?
71 72

12
Synthetic fuels Qualification ? Upstream

Automotive view
industry
Wholesalers
Distributors
 For fuel
engines that
continue to be
on roads
73 74
Wholesale
Upstream
view
Supplier Manufactur rs Final
Suppliers
s ers Distributor consumer
s
By the end of
Qualification ? the decade,
more than 30
Battery gigafactories
Drill down into

deeper analysis
75 Qualification today ? 76 76
Where is the expertise? -> alliances

Consequences ?
Qualification today ?
Drill down into

deeper analysis
77 77 78

13
Qualification in
2017 ?
Awarness -> Geopolitic dependency Environmental side
Lithium-Ion
2017 battery
Price of Lithium
• 6.000 dollars/tonne en 2015
• 25.000 dollars/tonnes en janvier
2018
Qualification in
2016-2017 ?
80 %
Geopolitical side
79 80
Qualification today ? Incumbent companies behaviors

Wholesale
Upstream
view
Supplier Manufactur rs Final
Suppliers
s ers Distributor consumer
s
Battery
Qualification ?
2020
81 82
Qualification ?
Emerging industries
Qualification ?
Emerging industries
83 84

14
Upstream
Supplier
s
Suppliers
Manufactur
ers
Wholesale
rs
Distributor
s
Final
consumer
view
Change drivers ?
Drill down into  Anti-waste public policies

deeper analysis  Customer sensibility
Battery  Energy crisis
 Diversification in
battery
 Etc…
 New avenues of
research
 Battery recycling
 Battery second Make sense of
used diversification
 Rare metals war the information Suppliers Suppliers
Manufacturer
s
Wholesalers
Distributors
Final
consumer
 Etc.
85 86
 DELPHI
Downstream
Automotive view “The number of
physical retail
industry outlets as we know
them today will be
dramatically
reduced by 2025”
Wholesalers Final
Suppliers Suppliers Manufacturers
Distributors consumer
KPMG
2018
Qualification in 2018 ?
87 88
 Choose, configure and

virtually test your future
car
 The challenge that can
May 2021
represent CRM and data
Qualification ?
Why ?  The dealership

role ?
« Agency model"
89 89 90

15
Insights 5 angles of data collection -> each

member
 The industry value chain -> useful guide
 What are all the transformations and changes
underway along the value-chain? 1 - Overall industry changes identification and
 What are the impacts of these changes? impacts
 Qualify the data 2 - Consumer/customer evolution and megatrends
– Megatrends and Industry trends -> long that can influence its behavior in the future
transformations that have already an impact -> 3 – Technologies/new usages & innovations, start-
strong impact on a medium term
– Inflection point -> current changes -> May transform
into megatrends 4 – Current strategic behavior of each industry
– Weak signal -> little changes -> may have impacts actors: focus on incumbent companies and new
10 years leading entrants
– Change drivers -> transformations 5 – Identify Main change drivers (accelerators and
the industry
91 92
Large issues Understand the dynamics of the

sector/industry
 Intentions to buy Beyond the trends, inflection points and weak
 Sales signals
 Consumption evolution
– Nature
 Customer behaviours
– Changes
Accelerators Consumption
 Etc. Inhibitors
93 94
Connected car Accelerators Consumption

Inhibitors
Inhibitors
Qualification ?
Data concerns
and security
concerns
95 Qualification ? Inhibitors 96

16
No pre-specified pick-up and drop-off locations
Inhibitors
Accelerators
Qualification ?
Consumption
Inhibitors
Change drivers
Activists
“anti-
Free-floating rental car
discourses”
Qualification : Inhibitors 97 98
Alternatives to the individual cars No pre-specified pick-up and drop-off locations
Qualification ? Qualification ?
Inhibitors
 VTC or PHV
Free-floating rental car
 Private Hire Inhibitors
Vehicles
 Price increase
 Shortage
VTC or PHV
Private Hire Vehicles  Etc.
99 100
Qualification ? Insights ->

the customer view
 Do not stay at the surface

– Understand the structural transformations
 Adopt a broad societal and technological view
 Qualify the data -> long term transformations,
current changes and early signals
 When possible… distinguish the difference
between
– change drivers
– and their impacts
101 102

17

member

impacts Suppliers Suppliers Manufacturers
Wholesalers
Final consumer
Distributors
3 – Technologies/new usages & innovations, start- Industry/sector value Chain
leading entrants
the industry
103 104
2 aspects 2 aspects
 Technologies, new  Start-ups, and new  Technologies, new  Start-ups, and new
usages and entrants usages and entrants
innovations innovations
105 106
Technologies, new usages and

innovations Technological roadmap -> battery
 List all the technologies/usages that are impacting
the sector today
– Speed of adoption? blocking and inertia factors that could
lock in the spread of these technologies/innovations ?
– Impacts?
 What are the other innovation areas
– Product innovations – Digital innovations (services) -
Organizational innovation (Industry 4.0) - Business model
innovation
– Impacts?
 Nature of the innovation? Incremental versus
radical innovation?
– In which part of the value chain?
 Where ?
– Innovation and finance - Areas of investments ?
107 108

18
Qualification?
Michigan - Detroit
2022
Qualification?
109 109 110 110
Qualification?
Qualification?
Car Infotainment : new services
2021
-> What kinds ?
GAFAM
Alibaba
111 112
2020
Toward Qualification?
“augmented
vehicle” ->
Autopilot
 Advanced
Qualification ?
driving
assistance
 Parking
assistance
 Voice
recognition
 Heated seats
 Extra cameras
 Etc.
113 113 114

19
Insights
 Behind the technologies

– New usages : what do they change for the
industry players and the customers ?
– What are the emerging business models?
– “Think transformations”
 Different coopetition behaviors -> GAFAM
– Fierce competition
Qualification ?
– Cooperation
Juin 2019 – Differentiation
115 116
2 aspects
 Technologies, new  Start-ups, and new

usages and entrants
innovations
117 118
Changes in the Business Model
Battery : 30% Who ?

Engine :
to 40% of the
 2000 pieces 37% of
value
the value
Collapse
of entry
barriers
119 120

20
China will
play an
important
role
New electric
automakers
emerging for
several
years
121 122
2020
100 000
electric
delivery vans
2021
2020
 Ford and Amazon : biggest
investors
 Achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by
2040
123 124
Las Vegas – 2020 Consumer Electronic

Show - The 2022 FISKER OCEAN EV France
(investment company + start-up)
 Announced its IPO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0JoWQ
SWdKM
125 126

21
Start-ups, and new entrants Insights

 Barriers to entry
 Rely on fact
 Start-ups
– Look for some startups that are in nearby
– What is emerging?
ecosystems or in the area.  Do not stay at the surface
– What could be their impact on the sector? – Drill down into deeper analysis
– In which part of the value chain?
 Who are the new entrants?
– What novelties do they bring to the sector/industry?
– Be interested in new entrants in every part of the
value chain in the sector, including players from other
sectors who are about to enter or are entering certain
parts of the value chain.
127 128

member

impacts
3 – Technologies/new usages & innovations, start-
leading entrants
the industry
129 130
The importance of incumbent companies' Car operating system : dependency

behavior and leading new entrants in versus differentiation
exploring the sector/industry dynamic
 Economic,
business and
financial press
 Europress and
Factiva
131 132

22
Car operating system: 3 strategies Car operating system: 3 strategies
133 134
Car operating system: 3 strategies Insights

 Rely on facts
– Who are the main players ?
 Who is leading the changes? Who is
disrupted?
 What exactly are the players doing? Deepen
their strategies to face the new challenges
– What are the current strategies of actors in order
to face new challenges (diversification in which
areas, alliance for what kind of purpose, mergers,
acquisitions, etc.?) Are these strategies
successful?
135 136
5 angles of data collection -> each Understand the dynamics of the

member sector/industry
 The change
1 - Overall industry changes identification and drivers
– Accelerators
impacts – Inhibitors
2 - Consumer/customer evolution and  The
megatrends that can influence its behavior in  Understand the transformations
the future “change actors” – What do they
– Companies (new change?
3 – Technologies/new usages & innovations,
entrants, etc.)
start-ups, and new entrants
– State, Public
4 – Current strategic behavior of each industry authorities
actors: focus on incumbent companies and – Activists
new leading entrants – GAFAM
5 – Identify Main change drivers (accelerators and – Etc.
the industry 137 138

23
Understand the dynamics of the “Internal

combustion engine”
Electric Vehicle
engine made of
sector/industry (ICE) made of
 The change
drivers
– Accelerators
– Inhibitors
 The
 Understand the transformations
“change actors” – What do they
– Companies (new change?
entrants, etc.)
– State, Public
authorities
– Activists
– GAFAM
– Etc.
139 140
Public policies
 The addition of 4 problems
– Less maintenance -> loss of Accelerator
revenue
– Less production stages -> major
industrial transformations E.V. transformation + decline fossil fuel cars
– Loss of know how, value and
leadership
– New entrants surge Accelerator
Revenue loss and expensive industrial

transformations
Accelerator
Dramatic impacts
Search for new source of revenue
IMPACTS ++++
141 142
Insights
Understand the dynamics of the
sector/industry
Acceleration in
software  Distinguish between
differentiation – Change drivers & change actors
Accelerators Deep
transformations
change?
143 144

24
Insights
 Do not stay at the surface
– Understand the structural underlying
transformations
 What are the main change drivers for this -C-
industry?
– Technological changes, societal changes, etc.. Assignments
 What are the change actors?
 What are the main changes/transformations
in this industry?
145 146
Dates Course Work assignment

Individual work Phase 1 Between 5/6th Oct. ->
5/6th “horizon scanning” : scanning of the Traditional course 2rd/3th Nov.
October current industry dynamic data collection
Phase 1 Asynchronous Project manager 1
1 - Overall industry changes identification and 2rd/3th “horizon scanning” : scanning of the class Report 1
impacts November current industry dynamic
2 - Consumer/customer evolution and megatrends  Individual work
8/10th Phase 2 – Distance Half traditional Project manager 2
that can influence its behavior in the future  Choose
November “Futureone angle
exploration” (one angle
through per student)
course Report 2
3 – Technologies/new usages & innovations, start- assumptions about future potential Half group work
 DATA COLLECTION -> Data identification
evolutions
ups, and new entrants th DATA QUALIFICATION
16/17 Phase 3 - Distance Half traditional Project manager 3
November– Change driver versus
“Industry scenarios” : buildingtransformation
and course Report 3
scripting 3 industry scenarios Half group work
leading entrants – Trend versus inflection point (emergence and
23/24th Phase 4 - Distance Half traditional Project manager 4
5 – Identify Main change drivers (accelerators and November
acceleration/slow down) versus
“Company strategic reflexion” : course
weak signalReport 4
inhibitors) and understand the whole dynamics of  Findstrategic
20 data clusters
options or structuring
in the 4 industry Half group workphenomena
the industry 7/8th ->propose
Phase 5 to the group Project manager 5
December Final report and presentation with Students’
advices to identify horizon scanning presentations
147 148
targets
Dates Course Work assignment
Phase 1 Between 5/6th Oct. ->

Each student -> his/her proposition
October current industry dynamic data collection
 20 “clusters” or Accelerators Transformations
2rd/3th “horizon scanning” : scanning of the class Report 1 structuring Inhibitors
November current industry dynamic

phenomena
8/10th Phase 2 – Distance Half traditional Project manager 2 Accelerators Transformations
November “Future exploration” through course Report 2 Inhibitors
assumptions about future potential Half group work
evolutions
16/17th Phase 3 - Distance Half traditional Project manager 3 Changes drivers Accelerators Transformations
November “Industry scenarios” : building and course Report 3 & Inhibitors
scripting 3 industry scenarios Half group work transformations
23/24th
November
Phase 4 - Distance
“Company strategic reflexion” :
Half traditional
course
Project manager 4
Report 4
induced +
related actors Etc…
strategic options in the 4 industry Half group work
7/8th Phase 5 Project manager 5
149 150
targets

25
Accelerators Transformations Accelerators

Dates Course Work assignment Inhibitors Inhibitors
Transformations
Accelerators Transformations
Inhibitors
Phase 1 Between 5/6th Oct. -> Accelerators

Inhibitors
Transformations

October current industry dynamic data collection Isolated data
Accelerators Transformations Inhibitors
Inhibitors
Accelerators
2rd/3th “horizon scanning” : scanning of the class Report 1 Inhibitors
Transformations Accelerators Transformations
Inhibitors
Isolated data Isolated data
Isolated data
Team work
Inhibitors
November “Future exploration” through course Report 2
assumptions about future potential Half group work Accelerators Transformations
evolutions A time to Accelerators Transformations Inhibitors
Project manager discuss Inhibitors
16/17th Phase 3 - Distance Half traditional Project manager 3 Accelerators Transformations Accelerators Transformations
Inhibitors Inhibitors
November “Industry scenarios” : building and course Report 3
scripting 3 industry scenarios Half group work Isolated data Isolated data
23/24th Phase 4 - Distance Half traditional Project manager 4 Inhibitors
Accelerators
November “Company strategic reflexion” : course Report 4 Transformations
Around 50-70 Inhibitors
strategic options in the 4 industry Half group work
clusters or Accelerators Transformations
7/8th Phase 5 Project manager 5
structuring Inhibitors Isolated data
December Final report and presentation with Students’ phenomena
151 152
targets
Accelerators Transformations Accelerators

Dates Course Work assignment Inhibitors Inhibitors
Transformations
Inhibitors
Phase 1 Between 5/6th Oct. -> Accelerators

Inhibitors
Transformations

October current industry dynamic data collection Isolated data
Accelerators Transformations Inhibitors
Inhibitors
Accelerators
2rd/3th “horizon scanning” : scanning of the class Report 1 Inhibitors
Transformations Accelerators Transformations
Inhibitors
Isolated data Isolated data
Isolated data
Team work
Inhibitors
November “Future exploration” through course Report 2
assumptions about future potential Half group work Accelerators Transformations
evolutions A time to Accelerators Transformations Inhibitors
Project manager discuss Inhibitors
16/17th Phase 3 - Distance Half traditional Project manager 3 Accelerators Transformations Accelerators Transformations
Inhibitors Inhibitors
November “Industry scenarios” : building and course Report 3
scripting 3 industry scenarios Half group work Isolated data Isolated data
23/24th Phase 4 - Distance Half traditional Project manager 4 Inhibitors
Accelerators
November “Company strategic reflexion” : course Report 4 Inhibitors
Transformations
strategic options in the 4 industry Half group work Grouping

7/8th Phase 5 Project manager 5 Inhibitors Isolated data
153 154
targets
Avoid the
“PESTEL 5 or 6 main
syndrome” LONG TERM
axes of
transformation
Think transversal transformations >  Each axe

DYNAMICS causes to effects relationships – 8/10 related structural
phenomena or clusters
– Changes drivers &
 6 to 7 major transformations induced +
transformational related actors
axis
155 156

26
6 long-term transformations
5 or 6 main  Electric mobility and the progressive mix of
LONG TERM alternative fuels and powertrain technologies
axes of  New digital services and features
 New models of car consumption and business
transformation models (subscription)
 Augmented car and functional transformation of
 Independent enough vehicles
– Even if the change
drivers can be the same  Tension between individual cars versus shared
– The nature of the collective urban mobility
transformations is  Disintermediation and reintermediation within
distinct
– As less overlap as the automotive value chain (omnicanal)
possible in the
transformations
157 158
Tension between individual cars versus shared collective urban mobility
A tip…. 2
1
In order to verify -> industry transformation or
a change driver that may vary 3
 “… More or less rapid…”
 “… More or less important…” 5
6
4
8
159
9 160
Tension between individual cars versus shared collective urban mobility Digital services and features digital model
2
1
6
4 7
161
9162

27
Digital services and features digital model New models of car consumption and new business models (subscription)
163 164
First REPORT
PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4
(strategic options)
1
Conclusion
INDUSTRY COMPANY
165 166
Systemic thinking Systemic thinking Individual task -> until 2rd/3th November
Step 1 - Collect data Step 2 – Qualify data
Weak signals – early signals
Inflection points – current changes

Individual task -> until 2rd/3th November
Trends – long-lasting
Change drivers
Transformations
167 168

28
Industry Horizon scanning Industry Horizon scanning

Collective task -> 2d/3th November
Collective task -> 2d/3th November
Step 4 - Step 5 –
Change
drivers Grouping Naming +
can be
common
synthesis
Several
distinct major
axes of
transformation
169 170
Report 1
2rd November
PHASE 1
Industry  Name of the project manager
horizon
Scanning  Work of each member -> name
– Data collection and qualification
– Clusters/ structural phenomena
1
propositions
 Collective work : 5-6 main axes
of transformation
– Name
– Synthesis -> quality
171

29

1-Horizon Scanning

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

1-Horizon Scanning

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Advanced strategic toolkit 04/10/2022

MSc Global Management

Dr. Valery Michaux – Neoma BS

Advanced Strategic Toolkit

Industry and Corporate

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

What is currently changing ? What is currently changing ?

GROUPING -> Avoid the “PESTEL syndrome”

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

Systemic thinking Systemic thinking

Step 2 – Qualify data Step 2 – Qualify data

Change drivers Transformations Change drivers Industry transformations

Industry Horizon scanning

Systemic view : understand the dynamics of

 Distinguish between Step 3 – Group

Accelerators Deep Several

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

Which one ?  Trends ?

Characteristics of trends Characteristics of trends

 Long-term axis of  Dramatic impacts on  Long-term axis of  Dramatic impacts on

Trends : long Billon euros France

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

E-commerce in France ? Trends : long & slow

Characteristics of trends Characteristics of trends

 Long-term axis of  Long-term axis of  Dramatic impacts on

E-commerce in France ? Drive different changes throughout the

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

Characteristics of trends Trends -> goal -> landmark for scenarios

 Long-term axis of  Dramatic impacts on Static

long term impacts

Green Long term

Impacts Transformative/evolutive Impacts Transformative/evolutive

Short term Short term

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

Trends : long & slow

Industrial/sectorial Trends : structural 2 - The notion of inflection point

 Slow long-term axis of transformations

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

Inflexion point = Orange

Future impacts Future impacts

Mega & Industry

Inflection Weak signals

More certain ? More uncertain ? More certain More uncertain

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

What is currently changing ?

2 years in the past + today

Past Future Past Future

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

Where can you find information about

4 or 5 angles of data collection -> 4 or 5 angles of data collection ->

5 angles of data collection -> each

1 - Overall industry changes identification and

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

1 - Overall industry description - Middle view

The most structuring phenomena ?

The most structuring phenomena : EV

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

2022 Local big municipalities

August 2021 – “Loi Climat et Resilience”

Systemic view : understand the dynamics of

DR. Valery Michaux, Neoma Business School

Synthetic fuels Qualification ? Upstream

Drill down into