Agricultural Information Technology in Asia and Oceania 1998
© 1998 by The Asian Federation for Information Technology in Agriculture
An Information Delivery System for Implementation of A
Forecasting System for Rice Blast Development Based on
Real-Time Weather Data
Eun Woo Park*1), Kyu Rang Kim1), Sung Kee Kim2), Soon Sung Hong2), and Jang
Souck Yang2)
1) Department of Agricultural Biology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Suwon
441-744, Korea
2) Department of Plant Environment, Kyonggi Provincial Rural Development Administration, Hwasong 445-970,
Korea
Abstract
An information delivery system for implementation
of a forecasting system for rice blast development based
on real-time weather data is under development on a PC
server with the Linux OS. The system is composed of
four servers or programs: weather data management
server, database server, program server, and web server.
The weather data management server regularly retrieves
hourly weather data from eight automated weather
stations installed at the experimental rice paddy fields of
eight Provincial Rural Development Administrations
through telephone modems. The weather data
management server transmits the new data to the
database server. The database server provides weather
and disease data to other servers. The database server is
interfaced with the weather data management server and
the program server by a C language API and with the
web server by a Perl language interface module. In the
program server, a simulation model (BLAST) for
forecasting rice blast development calculates daily leaf
blast severity and panicle blast incidence based on hourly
weather data provided by the database server. The web
server communicates with DBS and PS by the CGI
scripts in Perl, and retrieves the weather and disease
forecasting data stored in DBS upon request by users
through the web browser. The web server also provides a
simple request form for users to specify the run-time
parameters on the web browser. The weather and disease
forecasting data are displayed on the web browser in text
or graphic form using the JAVA applet.
Introduction
Weather-based forecasting systems have been
developed for a number of plant diseases (Campbell and
Madden, 1990). In general, however, existing forecasters
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed.
E-mail: ewpark@plaza.snu.ac.kr
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119-119
have received only limited acceptance by growers due to
scientific and psychological constraints. Among the
potential constraints, inaccuracy of disease forecasting
information and lack of enough time-lead in the
information delivery are probably the major scientific
constraints. Recent progress in weather monitoring and
information technologies provides a great opportunity to
improve accuracy of forecasting information and to
increase time-lead in the information delivery.
Monitoring of weather conditions within the plant
canopy is possible by automated weather stations. Real-
time weather data can be transmitted from automated
weather stations at remote sites to personal computers
via telephone modems or by radio telemetry. The disease
forecasting information based on the real-time weather
data can be delivered immediately to the public via the
World Wide Web. This paper is to describe an
information delivery system that was developed to
implement a forecasting system for rice blast
development in Korea. The information delivery system
was designed to produce and distribute site-specific
disease forecasting information on the real-time basis.
System Structure and Programming Tools
The information delivery system is composed of four
servers or programs: weather data management server
(WDMS), database server (DBS), program server (PRS),
and web server (WS) (Fig. 1). The whole system is
installed on a personal computer with a 200MHz
Pentium Pro CPU, 128MB RAM, three hard drives with
5GB storage space, two 28,800BPS telephone modems,
and a 10MBPS Ethernet interface card. The computer is
connected to the campus local area network (LAN) of
Seoul National University, which provides the Internet
access. The operating system of the computer is
primarily based on Red Hat Linux
(http://www.redhat.com/) version 4.2 with a
modification to support Korean language.
 Park, et. al.

Automated
Telep
Weather Station hone
mode
(CR10X) m
Weather Data
Management Server
Data input (Perl/SQL) (Linux)
hourly weather data
retrieval

Database Server
(Linux) 4-2. Disease information
update (Perl/SQL)
Program Server
(Linux)
3. Data search 4. Requested
the BLAST model
(Perl/SQL) data (text)
execution
4-1. Script for BLAST
execution (CGI)

Web Server 1. Data requesting form

(Linux)
2. Data request by users WWW Browser
information delivery 5. Data (graph and text)

Fig. 1. An overview of the information delivery system for rice blast forecasting based on real-time weather data.

Weather Data Management Server

Sensors
Weather data Weather data
in ASCII format retrieval
module
Datalogger MEMORY
CPU
Weather
database Weather data
update module

Modem Modem
Update Data Location 1
Execution

Location 2
Hourly

Database Server
Location 3

Cron daemon ...

Weather Tables
in the OS

Fig. 2. The weather data management server (WDMS). WDMS retrieves weather data from remote weather
stations and update corresponding weather tables in the database server.
                         

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 Park, et. al.

WDMS consists of a module for retrieval of
weatherdata from remote sites and a module for updating
the weather data in DBS (Fig. 2). The data retrieval
module, which is executed every hour by the crontab
command of Linux, searches for a station file in the
script directory to access an automated weather station
via telephone modem. In the station file, the station
name, phone number, and memory address of the last
data retrieval are specified to telecommunicate with an
automated weather station (Anonymous, 1997). The
Riccardo Facchetti’s programming library, Libmodem
version 1.0, is used to control the computer modems.
Once the automated weather station is accessed, the
newly stored data after the last access are retrieved and

Database Server
Disease
Weather data tables forecasting Disease forecasting
Station
index table data tables
index table Station n
Parameter A Result X
Station 1 Hourly data
DailyStation
data 2 Parameter B Forecasting
Station 2
... Hourly data ... Information
Result B
...
Station 1 Parameter X ... Forecasting
Station n Daily data Result A
... Hourly data Information
Daily data ... Forecasting
... Information
...

C language application programming interface library Perl language interface module

Weather Data Management

Program Server Web Server
Server

Fig. 3. The database server (DBS). DBS contains tables of weather data and disease forecasting data. The data tables
are indexed for easy access to requested data by the other servers.

Program Server Database Server

(BLAST) Latent Period
Spore Liberation air temperature
solar radiation
wetness period Weather Tables

Panicles
Spore Deposition no ? yes
air temperature Disease Tables
wind speed
Lesion Growth Neck Blast Incidence
air temperature
Spore Infection relative humidity

air temperature
wetness period Leaf Blast Severity Rice Growth On-demand Web
rainfall Execution Server
leaf area air temperature

Fig. 4. The program server (PS). PS is executed by a CGI program of the web server when a web user requests new
forecasting information.

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 Park, et. al.

stored in the computer in ASCII text format. The
weather data update module processes the stored data
and updates the weather database in DBS.
DBS, which is developed using the Mini SQL
database system (Hughes Technologies Pty. Ltd.,
Australia: http://www.hughes.com.au/), stores a database
with a number of tables containing weather and disease
forecasting data (Fig. 3). DBS maintains not only tables
for weather data and disease forecasting data but also
several index tables to identify stations and run-time
parameters like rice cultivars, transplanting dates, and
nitrogen fertilizer levels. The database server is
interfaced with the weather data management server and
the program server by a C language API and with the
web server by a Perl language interface module.
Using the hourly weather data from DBS, PS
produces daily leaf blast severity and panicle blast
incidence estimated by a simulation model (BLAST) and
stores them in DBS (Fig. 4). The hourly weather data
required by BLAST include air temperature, relative
humidity, rainfall, solar radiation, wind speed, and leaf
wetness. BLAST estimates the number of spores
deposited on leaves, the percentage of spores penetrated
leaves successfully, the latent period in days, the number
and size of lesions, the area of leaves per hill, and the
number of diseased panicles (Kim, 1994, Park et al.,
1997).
WS retrieves the weather and disease forecasting data
stored in DBS upon request by users through the web
browser (Fig. 5). If the requested information on disease
forecasting is not available in DBS, PS is driven to
produce the disease forecasting information based on the
specifications in a CGI script from WS. WS also
provides a simple request form for users to specify the
run-time parameters on the web browser. WS
communicates with DBS and PS by the CGI scripts in
Perl. The weather and disease forecasting data are
displayed on the web browser in text or graphic form
using the JAVA applet.
Results and Discussion
In Korea, the Committee for Forecasting Crop
Diseases and Insect Pests (CFCDIP) of the Rural
Development Administration has been organized every
year to forecast possible outbreaks of major plant
diseases and insect pests. The forecasting information is
issued at one or two-week intervals from April to
September. The rice blast forecasting information from
CFCDIP is usually based on weather forecasting at
meso- or macro-scales and the number of air-borne
spores of the pathogen collected at more than 100
experimental rice paddy fields over the country. The
information from CFCDIP is quite useful to understand
current situations of rice blast occurrence at the national
scale. However, the information is neither site-specific
nor accurate enough for local growers to use it in
practice for their disease management. In addition, there
is some time-delay in delivering the forecasting
information to rice growers, so that it is difficult to apply
appropriate disease management technologies in time.
The present study is to establish an information delivery

Database Server
4-2. Disease information update

3. Data search 4. Requested Program Server

(Perl/SQL) data (text)
4-1. BLAST execution with
appropriate parameters

CGI program

1. Data requesting form for web users

WWW
HTTP Daemon 2. Weather and disease data request
Browser
5. Data & JAVA applet (graph / text)

Web Server

Fig. 5. The web server (WS). WS retrieves the weather and disease forecasting data stored in the database server upon
request by users.

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 Park, et. al.

20 0.8
1993 1994
15 0.6

10 0.4
Disease Severity (%)

5 0.2

0 0.0
7/9 7/19 7/29 8/8 8/18 7/15 7/22 7/29
1.0 0.8
1995 1996
0.8 0.6
BLAST + APR
0.6
Observed 0.4
0.4
0.2 0.2

0.0 0.0
7/19 7/29 8/8 8/18 7/19 7/29 8/8 8/18
Date (1993 - 1996)

Fig. 6. Results of BLAST model execution at the Kyonggi Provincial Rural Development

system that can support the Real-time Plant Disease
Tracking System (RPDTS) covering the whole country.
RPDTS is presently under development with objectives
to predict the current and future development of major
diseases at remote sites and to give early warnings of
possible outbreaks of diseases.
By incorporating the automated weather monitoring
system, the disease forecasting model for rice blast, and
the Internet, the information delivery system described in
this paper has many advantages as compare with the
forecasting system currently used in Korea. The
advantages include (1) increased accuracy and site-
specificity of the forecasting information, (2) real-time
delivery of the forecasting information, (3) effectiveness
in sharing information on the Internet by multiple users,
and (4) cost efficiency in the system implementation by
using public domain software and programming tools. In
addition, the information delivery system can be
decentralized so that local extension offices can maintain
the system for their own interest.
All server programs are currently installed in a single
personal computer with a 200MHz Pentium Pro CPU
and 128MB RAM. With this capacity of the computer,
approximately 15 and 100 simultaneous accesses are
possible with and without executions of the program
server, respectively. If the number of automated weather
stations and the concurrent users are significantly
increased in the future, all servers of the system are to be
overloaded. In order to avoid the problems of server
overloading, TCP/IP is used in the communication
between the servers. Therefore, the servers can be
installed separately on two or more computers if
necessary.
Another major obstacle in the rice blast forecasting is
the validity of the disease forecasting model. Although
accuracy of the forecasting information could be
increased by using weather data measured in the rice
paddy fields instead of the macro- or meso-scale weather
data, the model itself may cause inaccurate forecasting
due to its limitation of validity. The results in Fig. 6
indicate that BLAST has some limitations in the
accuracy of forecasting, especially when the disease
development is very low. In 1993 when leaf blast
occurred severely, the prediction by BLAST appeared
accurate over the season. However, when the disease
severity was less than 1% in 1994-1996, BLAST tended
to overestimate the severity. BLAST in the program
server needs to be improved in the future to increase its
accuracy in forecasting.
The information delivery system in this study can be

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 Park, et. al.

applied to forecast other diseases and insects pests just by

changing forecasting models in the program server. Also,
if mesh climatic data are available at a fine scale in the
future, the system can produce the disease forecasting
information at the same scale without automated weather
stations at every site. In conjunction with geographical
information systems, this system can be used to generate
maps to illustrate disease development over the country.

References

Anonymous. 1997. CR10X Measurement and Control

Module Operator’s Manual. Campbell Scientific, Inc.
Campbell, C. L. and Madden, L. V. 1990. Forecasting
plant diseases. In Introduction to Plant Disease
Epidemiology. pp. 423-452. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Kim, K. R. 1994. Development of a rice blast forecasting
system based on near real-time microclimatic data.
M.S. Thesis. Seoul National University 100 pp.
Park, E. W., Kim, K. R., and Hwang, C. I. 1997.
Quantification of adult plant resistance of rice
cultivars to leaf blast. (Abstract) Phytopathology
87:S75.

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