PH IC Excelente

Business Statistics, 4e
by Ken Black
Chapter 10
Discrete Distributions
Statistical
Inferences about
Two Populations
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons.
10-1
Learning Objectives
• Test hypotheses and construct confidence

intervals about the difference in two
population means using the Z statistic.
population means using the t statistic.
10-2
Learning Objectives

related populations.
intervals about the differences in two
population proportions.
intervals about two population variances.
10-3
Sampling Distribution of the
Difference Between Two Sample
Means
Population 1
X 1
X  X
x 1 2
X1  n1
X X 1 2

x
X 2
n 2
X 2
Population 2
10-4
Sampling Distribution of the
Difference between Two Sample
Means
X  X2
  
1 2
X   2
1

2
2
 X2 n n
1
1
1 2
X 1
 X2
X 1
 X 2
10-5
Z Formula for the Difference
in Two Sample Means
n1  30, n2  30, and Independent Samples
 X  X      
1 2 1 2
Z
 
2 2
1 2
n n
1 2
10-6
Hypothesis Testing for Differences Between
Means: The Wage Example (part 1)
Ho: 1  2  0 Rejection
Rejection
Ha: 1  2  0
Region
Region
 
 .025  .025
2 2
Non Rejection Region
X1
 X2 X X
1 2
Critical Values
10-7
Hypothesis Testing for Differences Between
If Z < - 1.96 or Z > 1.96, reject Ho.
Rejection
Rejection Region If - 1.96  Z  1.96, do not reject Ho.
Region

 .025 
2  .025
2
Z  1.96
c
0 Z 1.96
c
Critical Values
10-8
Hypothesis Testing for Differences
Between Means: The Wage Example
(part 3)
Advertising Managers Auditing Managers
69.962 77.136 43.649
74.256 57.791 71.115
n  32
1
55.052 66.035 63.369
96.234 65.145 67.574
89.807 96.767 59.621
X  70.700
1 57.828 54.335 59.676
93.261 77.242 62.483 S  16.253

1 63.362 42.494 54.449
2
103.030 67.056 69.319 S  264.164
1
37.194 83.849 46.394
74.195 64.276 35.394 99.198 67.160 71.804
75.932 74.194 86.741 61.254 37.386 72.401
80.742 65.360 57.351

n  34
2 73.065 59.505 56.470
39.672 73.904 X  62.187

2
48.036 72.790 67.814
45.652 54.270 S  12.900

2
60.053 71.351 71.492
2 66.359 58.653
93.083 59.045
S  166 .411
2 61.261 63.508
63.384 68.508
10-9
Hypothesis Testing for Differences between
If Z < -1.96 or Z > 1.96, reject Ho.
Rejection
Rejection Region If -1.96  Z  1.96, do not reject Ho.
X  X     
Region
Z 1 2 1 2
2 2


2
 .025 S S
1 2
2
 . 025
n n1 2

70.700  62.187  0  2.35
Z  2.33 Z  233
. 256.253 166.411
0 c

c
Critical Values 32 34
Since Z = 2.35 > 1.96, reject H o.

10-10
Difference Between Means: Using Excel
z-Test: Two Sample for Means
Adv Mgr Auditing Mgr

Mean 70.7001 62.187
Known Variance 264.164 166.411
Observations 32 34
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
z 2.35
P(Z<=z) one-tail 0.0094
z Critical one-tail 1.64
P(Z<=z) two-tail 0.0189

z Critical two-tail 1.960
10-11
Demonstration Problem 10.1 (part 1)
Rejection
Ho:  1   2  0
Region
Ha:  1   2  0  .001
Z c
 3.08 0
Critical Value
10-12
Demonstration Problem 10.1 (part 2)
Women Men
X  $3,352
1 X  $5,727
2
Rejection S  $1,100
1 S  $1,700
2
Region n  87
1 n  76
2
 .001
 X  X      
1 2 1 2
Non Rejection Region Z 2 2
Z  308
.
0
S S1 2
n n
c
1 2
Critical Value
 3352  5727   0
 2 2
 10.42
If Z < - 3.08, reject Ho. 1100  1700
87 76
If Z   3.08, do not reject Ho.
Since Z = - 10.42 < - 3.08, reject H o .
10-13
Confidence Interval to Estimate 1 - 2 When
n1 and n2 are large and 1, 2 are unknown
2 2 2 2
 X  X   Z Sn  Sn       X  X   Z Sn  Sn
1 2
1
1 2
2
1 2 1 2
1
1 2
2
2 2 2 2
Pr ob[  X  X   Z Sn  Sn
1 2
1
1 2
2
  
1 2
  X  X   Z Sn  Sn
1 2
1
1
2
2
]  1
10-14
Demonstration Problem 10.2
Re gular Pr emium
n  50
1 n  50
2
X  2145
1
. X  246. 2
9 5 % C o nfid en ce  Z = 1 .96
S  346
1
. S  299
.
2
2 2 2 2
  n nS S   X X  n n S S
X1  X 2  Z    1
1
 2
2
 Z 1
2 1 2
1
1
2
2 2 2 2
 2145
.  24.6 196
.
346
.  299
.       2145 .  196
.  246 .
346
.  299
.
50 50 1 250 50
 4.42  1  2  188
.
.  1  2  188
Pr ob[442 . ]  095
.
10-15
The t Test for Differences
in Population Means
• Each of the two populations is normally
distributed.
• The two samples are independent.
• At least one of the samples is small, n < 30.
• The values of the population variances are
unknown.
• The variances of the two populations are equal.
12 = 22
10-16
t Formula to Test the Difference in
Means Assuming 12 = 22
X      
X 1
 2 1 2
t 
S n  1  S n  1 1  1
2 2
1 1 2 2
n n 2 n n 1 2 1 2
10-17
Hernandez Manufacturing Company
(part 1)
Ho: 1  2  0
Ha: 1  2  0
Rejection Rejection
Region Region

.025
2
 .05
 .025 
2 2 .025
2
df  n1  n2  2  15  12  2  25 Non Rejection Region
t 0 .25, 25
 2.060
t  2060
.
.025,25
0 t
.025,25
 2060
.
If t < - 2.060 or t > 2.060, reject Ho. Critical Values
If - 2.060  t  2.060, do not reject Ho.

10-18
(part 2)
Training Method A Training Method B

56 51 45 59 57 53
47 52 43 52 56 65
42 53 52 53 55 53
50 42 48 54 64 57
47 44 44
n  15
1 n  12
2
X  47.73 1 X  56.5
2
2
S  19.495
2
1 S  18.273
2
10-19
(part 3)
X      
X 1
 2 1 2
t 
S n  1  S n  1 1  1
2 2
1 1 2 2
n n 2 n n1 2 1 2
 47 .73  56 .50   0

19 .495 14   18.27 311 1 1

15  12  2 15 12
  5.20
If t < -2.060 or t > 2.060, reject Ho. Since t = -5.20 < -2.060, reject H o .
If -2.060  t  2.060, do not reject Ho.

10-20
MINITAB Output for Hernandez
New-Employee Training Problem
Twosample T for method A vs method B
N Mean StDev SE Mean

method A 15 47.73 4.42 1.1
method B 12 56.60 4.27 1.2
95% C.I. for mu method A - mu method B: (-12.2, -5.3)
T-Test mu method A = mu method B (vs not =): T = -5.20

P=0.0000 DF = 25
Both use Pooled StDev = 4.35
10-21
EXCEL Output for Hernandez
New-Employee Training Problem
t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances
Variable 1 Variable 2
Mean 4 7.73 56.5
Variance 19.495 18.27
Observations 15 12
Pooled Variance 18.957
df 25
t Stat - 5.20
P(T<=t) one-tail 1.12E-05
t Critical one-tail 1.71
P(T<=t) two-tail 2.23E-05
t Critical two-tail 2.06
10-22
Confidence Interval to Estimate 1 -
2 with Small Samples and 12 = 22
S n  S n 
2 2
1  1
X 1
 X 2  t 1 1
n n1 2
2
2
2 1
n 1

n
1
2
w here df  n n 1 2
2
10-23
Dependent Samples
• Before and After Individual Before After

Measurements on
the same 1 32 39
individual 2 11 15
• Studies of twins 3 21 35
4 17 13
• Studies of spouses 5 30 41
6 38 39
7 14 22
10-24
Formulas for Dependent Samples
d D d 
 d
t
S n
 d  d 
d 2
n
S 
n 1
df  n 1
d
n  number of pairs   d
2
d 2

n
d = sample difference in pairs 
n 1
D = mean population difference
S
d
= standard deviation of sample difference
d = mean sample difference
10-25
P/E Ratios for Nine Randomly Selected
Companies
Company 2001 P/E Ratio 2002 P/E Ratio

1 8.9 12.7
2 38.1 45.4
3 43.0 10.0
4 34.0 27.2
5 34.5 22.8
6 15.2 24.1
7 20.3 32.3
8 19.9 40.1
9 61.9 106.5
10-26
Hypothesis Testing with Dependent
Samples: P/E Ratios for Nine Companies
Ho: D  0
Ha: D  0
Rejection Rejection
Region Region
  .01  
.005 .005
df  n 1  9 1  8 2 2
t.005,6
 3.355 Non Rejection Region
If t < - 3.355or t > 3.355,rejectHo.

t
.01,11
 3.355 0 t
.01,11
 3.355
Critical Value
If - 3.355 t  3.355,do not rejectHo.
10-27
2001 P/E 2002 P/E

Company Ratio Ratio d
1 8.9 12.7 -3.8
2 38.1 45.4 -7.3
3 43.0 10.0 33.0
4 34.0 27.2 6.8
5 34.5 22.8 11.7
6 15.2 24.1 -8.9
7 20.3 32.3 -12.0
8 19.9 40.1 -20.2
9 61.9 106.5 -44.6
10-28
d   5 . 033
S d
 21 . 599
 5 . 033  0
t   0 . 70
21 . 599
9
Since -3.355  t = - 0 .70  3.355 , do not reject H o
10-29
t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means
2001 P/E 2002 P/E

Ratio Ratio
Mean 30.64 35.68
Variance 268.1 837.5
Observations 9 9
Pearson Correlation 0.674
df 8
t Stat -0.7
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.252
t Critical one-tail 1.86
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.504
t Critical two-tail 2.306
10-30
Samples: Demonstration Problem 10.5
Individual Before After d
1 32 39 -7
2 11 15 -4
3 21 35 -14
4 17 13 4
5 30 41 -11
6 38 39 -1
7 14 22 -8
10-31
Ho: D  0
Ha: D  0 Rejection
Region
  .05
df  n 1  7 1  6   .05
t .05,6
 1.943 Non Rejection Region
t.05,6
 1.943
0
If t  -1.943,rejectHo. Critical Value
If t  -1.943,do not rejectHo.
10-32
d   5 . 857
S d
 6 . 0945
 5 . 857  0
t   2 . 54
6 . 0945
7
Since t = - 2.54  t c  - 1.943, reject Ho
10-33
Confidence Intervals for Mean Difference
for Related Samples
d t S d
 D  d t S d
n n
df  n  1
10-34
Difference in Number of New-House Sales
Realtor May 2001 May 2002 d
1 8 11 -3
2 19 30 -11
d  3.39
3 5 6 -1
4 9 13 -4
5 3 5 -2
6 0 4 -4
7 13 15 -2
 3.27
8 11 17 -6
9 9 12 -3
d 10
11
5
8
12
6
-7
2
12 2 5 -3
13 11 10 1
14 14 22 -8
15 7 8 -1
16 12 15 -3
17 6 12 -6
18 10 10 0 10-35
Confidence Interval for Mean Difference
in Number of New-House Sales
df  n  1  18  1  17
t .005,17  2.898
d t Sd  D  d t Sd
n n
3.27 3.27
 3.39  2.898  D  3.39  2.898
18 18
 3.39  2.23  D  3.39  2.23
 5.62  D  1.16
10-36
Sampling Distribution of Differences
in Sample Proportions
For large sam ples
1. n 1
 p  5,
1
2. n 1
 q  5,
1
3. n 2
p   5,
2
and
4. n 2
 q  5
2
w here q = 1 - p
the difference in sam ple proportions is norm ally distributed w ith
 p  p 2
 P 1
 P 2
and
1
P Q P Q

1 2
p 1  p 2  
1 2
n 1 n 2
10-37
Z Formula for the Difference
in Two Population Proportions
Z 
 p  p    P  P  1 2 1 2
P Q 1 1

P Q
2 2
n 1 n 2
p  proportion from sam ple 1

1
p  proportion from sam ple 2

2
n  size of sam ple 1

1
n  size of sam ple 2

2
P  proportion from population 1

1
P  proportion from population 2

2
Q  1- P1 1
Q  1- P 2 2
10-38
Z Formula to Test the Difference
in Population Proportions
Z
 p  p    P  P 1 2 1 2
 1 1 
 P  Q   
 n1 n 2 
P 
X  X 1 2
n n 1 2
n p  n p 1 2
 1 2
n n 1 2
Q  1 P
10-39
Testing the Difference in Population
Proportions (Demonstration Problem 10.6)
Ho: P1  P2  0
Rejection
Ha: P1  P2  0 Region Rejection
Region
 .01 
 .005 .005
2
2 2 
.005
2
Z .005  2.575 Non Rejection Region
If Z < -2.575 or Z > 2.575, reject Ho.

Z  2575
c
. 0 Z  2575
c
.
Critical Values
If -2.575  Z  2.575, do not reject Ho.
10-40
Testing the Difference in Population
Proportions (Demonstration Problem 10.6)
n  100
1 n  95
2
Z 
 p  p    P  P 
1 2 1 2
X  24
1 X  39 2  1 1 
24 39 P  Q   
p  100 .24
1
p  95 .41
2
n 1 n2 
.24  .41  0 

1 1 
.323.677   
X X 100 95 
P 1 2
 .17
n n 1 2 
.067
24  39
   2 .54
100  95
.323
Since - 2.575  Z = - 2.54  2.575, do not reject Ho.

10-41
Confidence Interval to Estimate P1 - P2
p q p q p q p q
 p  p   Z
1 2
n
1

n
1
1 2
2
2
 P1  P2   p  p   Z
1 2
1
n

1 n
1 2
2
2
10-42
n  400
1 n  480
2
Example Problem:
X  48 1 X  187 2
When do men shop
48
p  400 .12
1
p  187
480
2
 .39 for groceries?
q  1  p .88
1 1
q  1  p .61
2 2 For a 98% level of confidence, Z = 2.33.
p q p q p q p q
 p  p   Z
1 2
n
1
1
1
 2
n 2
2
 P P
1 2
  p  p   Z
1 2
1
n 1
1
 2
n 2
2
 .12 .88  .39 .61  .12 .88  .39  .61

 .12 .39  2.33   P1  P2  .12 .39  2.33 
400 480 400 480
P P
.27 .064  1 2
 .27 .064
.334  P  P 1 2
 .206
Pr ob[ .334  P  P 1 2
 .206]  0.98
10-43
F Test for Two Population Variances
F  S 1
2
S 2
df numerator   1  n 1 1
df deno min ator   n 12 2
10-44
F Distribution with 1 = 10 and 2 = 8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00
10-45
A Portion of the F Distribution Table
for  = 0.025
F .025, 9 ,11
Numerator Degrees of Freedom
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 647.79 799.48 864.15 899.60 921.83 937.11 948.20 956.64 963.28
2 38.51 39.00 39.17 39.25 39.30 39.33 39.36 39.37 39.39
3 17.44 16.04 15.44 15.10 14.88 14.73 14.62 14.54 14.47
4 12.22 10.65 9.98 9.60 9.36 9.20 9.07 8.98 8.90
Denominator 5 10.01 8.43 7.76 7.39 7.15 6.98 6.85 6.76 6.68
Degrees of Freedom 6 8.81 7.26 6.60 6.23 5.99 5.82 5.70 5.60 5.52
7 8.07 6.54 5.89 5.52 5.29 5.12 4.99 4.90 4.82
8 7.57 6.06 5.42 5.05 4.82 4.65 4.53 4.43 4.36
9 7.21 5.71 5.08 4.72 4.48 4.32 4.20 4.10 4.03
10 6.94 5.46 4.83 4.47 4.24 4.07 3.95 3.85 3.78
11 6.72 5.26 4.63 4.28 4.04 3.88 3.76 3.66 3.59
12 6.55 5.10 4.47 4.12 3.89 3.73 3.61 3.51 3.44
10-46
Sheet Metal Example: Hypothesis Test for
Equality of Two Population Variances (Part 1)
Ho:1   2
2 2   005
.
F 359
.
n  10
.025,9,11
Ha: 1   2
1
2 2
n  12
2
F.975,11,9 =
1
2
F .025,9,11
F 
S 1

1
2
S 2
359
.
 028
.
df numerator   1  n 1 1 If F<0.28 or F > 3.59, reject H.o

df deno m in ator   n 1 2 2 If 0.28  F  359
. , do reject H.o
10-47
Sheet metal Manufacturer (Part 2)
Rejection Regions
If F<0.28 or F > 3.59, reject H.o

If 0.28  F  359
. , do reject H.o
Non Rejection
Region
F .975 ,11, 9
 0.28 F .025 , 9 ,11
 3.59
Critical Values
10-48
Sheet Metal Example (Part 3)
Machine 1 Machine 2
22.3 21.8 22.2 22.0 22.2 22.0
21.8 21.9 21.6 22.1 22.0 22.1
22.3 22.4 21.8 21.7 21.9
21.6 22.5 21.9 21.9 22.1
n
1
 10
F
S
2
1

01138
.
 5.63
n 2
 12
2
S
2
1
 0.1138 S 2
0.0202
S
2
2
 0.0202
Since F = 5.63 > Fc = 3.59, reject Ho.
10-49

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Business Statistics, 4e

• Test hypotheses and construct confidence

• Test hypotheses and construct confidence

n1  30, n2  30, and Independent Samples

93.261 77.242 62.483 S  16.253

74.195 64.276 35.394 99.198 67.160 71.804

75.932 74.194 86.741 61.254 37.386 72.401

80.742 65.360 57.351

39.672 73.904 X  62.187

45.652 54.270 S  12.900

Since Z = 2.35 > 1.96, reject H o.

Adv Mgr Auditing Mgr

Hypothesized Mean Difference 0

P(Z<=z) one-tail 0.0094

z Critical one-tail 1.64

P(Z<=z) two-tail 0.0189

If t < - 2.060 or t > 2.060, reject Ho. Critical Values

If - 2.060  t  2.060, do not reject Ho.

Training Method A Training Method B

If -2.060  t  2.060, do not reject Ho.

Twosample T for method A vs method B

N Mean StDev SE Mean

95% C.I. for mu method A - mu method B: (-12.2, -5.3)

T-Test mu method A = mu method B (vs not =): T = -5.20

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

• Before and After Individual Before After

Company 2001 P/E Ratio 2002 P/E Ratio

If t < - 3.355or t > 3.355,rejectHo.

2001 P/E 2002 P/E

Since -3.355  t = - 0 .70  3.355 , do not reject H o

2001 P/E 2002 P/E

Individual Before After d

Since t = - 2.54  t c  - 1.943, reject Ho

p  proportion from sam ple 1

p  proportion from sam ple 2

n  size of sam ple 1

n  size of sam ple 2

P  proportion from population 1

P  proportion from population 2

If Z < -2.575 or Z > 2.575, reject Ho.

Since - 2.575  Z = - 2.54  2.575, do not reject Ho.

 .12 .88  .39 .61  .12 .88  .39  .61

df deno min ator   n 12 2

Numerator Degrees of Freedom

df numerator   1  n 1 1 If F<0.28 or F > 3.59, reject H.o

If F<0.28 or F > 3.59, reject H.o

Since F = 5.63 > Fc = 3.59, reject Ho.

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