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The Great Global Warming Swindle
The Great Global Warming Swindle
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and temperature change since 1940. The film asserts that records
of atmospheric CO
2 levels since 1940 show a continuing increase, but during this period, global temperature decreased
until 1975, and has after that increased until 1997.
Variations in warming rate. The programme states that all models of greenhouse effect-derived
temperature increase predict that the warming will be at its greatest for a given location in
the troposphere and at its lowest near the surface of the earth. The programme asserts that
current satellite and weather balloon data do not support this model, and instead show that the surface
warming rate is greater than or equal to the rate in the lower troposphere.
Increases in CO
2 and temperatures following the end of ice ages. According to the film, increases in CO
2 levels lagged (by over 100 years) behind temperature increases during glacial terminations.
EPICA and Vostok ice cores display the relationship between temperature and level of CO
2 for the last 650,000 years. ("Current CO2 level" is as of 2006.)
Increased funding of climate science. According to the film, there has been an increase in funds
available for any research related to global warming "and it is now one of the best funded areas of
science."
Increased availability of funding for global warming research. The film asserts that scientists
seeking a research grant award have a much more likely chance of successfully obtaining funding if the
grant is linked to global warming research.
Influence of vested interests. The programme argues that vested interests have a bigger impact on the
proponents (rather than the detractors) of arguments supporting the occurrence of man-made global
warming because hundreds of thousands of jobs in science, media, and government have been created
and are subsidised as a result.
Suppression of dissenting views. According to the programme, scientists who speak out (against the
view that global warming is man-made) risk persecution, death threats, loss of funding, personal attacks,
and damage to their reputations.
Role of ideology. The film proposes that some supporters of the finding that global warming is man-
made do so because it supports their emotional and ideological beliefs against capitalism, economic
development, globalisation, industrialisation, and the United States.
Role of politics. The programme asserts that the view that global warming is man-made was promoted
by the British Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as a means of promoting nuclear
power and reducing the impact of strike action in the state-owned coal industry by the National Union of
Mineworkers.
Role of industry. The film argues that the assertion that global warming denialists are funded by private
industry (such as oil, gas, and coal industries) are false and have no basis in fact.
Disputing the global warming consensus
The film argues that the consensus among climate scientists about global warming does not exist.
Status of IPCC contributors. The programme asserts that it is falsely stated that "2,500 top scientists"
support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s reports on global warming. In fact,
according to the programme, the report includes many politicians and non-scientists, and even dissenters
who demanded that their names be removed from the report but were refused.
Accuracy of representation of IPCC contributors. The film argues that IPCC reports misrepresent the
views of scientists who contribute to them through selective editorialising. The film highlights the case
of Paul Reiter of the Pasteur Institute who complained that the IPCC did not take his professional
opinion under greater consideration. It states that the IPCC kept his name on the report as a contributor
and did not remove his name until he threatened legal action.
Suppression of dissenting views. According to the programme, the concept of man-made global
warming is promoted with a ferocity and intensity that is similar to a religious fervour. Denialists are
treated as heretics and equated with holocaust deniers. Retired university professor Tim Ball states in the
film (and in subsequent press publicity) that he has received death threats because of sceptical
statements he has made about global warming.[15]
Killing the African dream of development
Author and economist James Shikwati says in the programme that environmentalists campaign against
Africa using its fossil fuels: "there's somebody keen to kill the African dream. And the African dream is
to develop." He describes renewable power as "luxurious experimentation" that might work for rich
countries but will never work for Africa: "I don't see how a solar panel is going to power a steel industry
– rather a transistor radio." We are being told, 'Don't touch your resources. Don't touch your oil. Don't
touch your coal.' That is suicide."
The film describes a Kenyan health clinic that is powered by two solar panels that do not provide
enough electricity for both the medical refrigerator and the lights at the same time. The programme
describes the idea of restricting the world's poorest people to alternative energy sources as "the most
morally repugnant aspect of the Global Warming campaign."
Sulfate aerosol and greenhouse gases effect on climate change based on Meehl et al. (2004) in Journal of
Climate
The IPCC was one of the main targets of the documentary. In response to the programme's
broadcast, John T. Houghton (co-chair IPCC Scientific Assessment working group 1988–2002) assessed
some of its main assertions and conclusions. According to Houghton the programme was "a mixture of
truth, half truth and falsehood put together with the sole purpose of discrediting the science of global
warming," which he noted had been endorsed by the scientific community, including the Academies of
Science of the major industrialised countries and China, India and Brazil. Houghton rejected claims that
observed changes in global average temperature are within the range of natural climate variability or that
solar influences are the main driver; that the troposphere is warming less than the surface; that volcanic
eruptions emit more carbon dioxide than fossil fuel burning; that climate models are too complex and
uncertain to provide useful projections of climate change; and that IPCC processes were biased.
Houghton acknowledges that ice core samples show CO
2 driven by temperature, but then writes that the programme's assertion that "this correlation has been
presented as the main evidence for global warming by the IPCC [is] NOT TRUE. For instance, I often
show that diagram in my lectures on climate change but always make the point that it gives no proof of
global warming due to increased carbon dioxide."[23]
The British Antarctic Survey released a statement about The Great Global Warming Swindle. It is highly
critical of the programme, singling out the use of a graph with the incorrect time axis, and also the
statements made about solar activity: "A comparison of the distorted and undistorted contemporary data
reveal that the plot of solar activity bears no resemblance to the temperature curve, especially in the last
20 years." Comparing scientific methods with Channel 4's editorial standards, the statement says: "Any
scientist found to have falsified data in the manner of the Channel 4 programme would be guilty of
serious professional misconduct." It uses the [[attribution of recent climate change#Warming sometimes
leads CO
2 increases|feedback argument]] to explain temperatures rising before CO
2. On the issue of volcanic CO
2 emissions, it says:
A second issue was the claim that human emissions of CO
2 are small compared to natural emissions from volcanoes. This is untrue: current annual emissions
from fossil fuel burning and cement production are estimated to be around 100 times greater than
average annual volcanic emissions of CO
2. That large volcanoes cannot significantly perturb the CO
2 concentration of the atmosphere is apparent from the ice core and atmospheric record of CO
2 concentrations, which shows a steady rise during the industrial period, with no unusual changes
after large eruptions.[10]
Thirty-seven British scientists signed a letter of complaint, saying that they "believe that the
misrepresentations of facts and views, both of which occur in your programme, are so serious
that repeat broadcasts of the programme, without amendment, are not in the public interest. In
view of the seriousness of climate change as an issue, it is crucial that public debate about it is
balanced and well-informed".[9]
According to the Guardian in 2007, a study published by, among others, Mike Lockwood, a
solar physicist at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory was partially inspired in response to The
Great Global Warming Swindle.[26] Lockwood then had co-authored a paper about solar data
from the past 40 years.[27] He found that between 1985 and 1987, the solar factors that should
affect climate performed an "U-turn in every possible way",[27] therefore 2007 cooling would
have to be expected, which was not the case then.[27][28] Lockwood therefore was quoted several
times as critical evidence against various claims made in the film.
Volume 20 of the Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic
Society presented a critique by David Jones, Andrew Watkins, Karl Braganza and Michael
Coughlan.
The Great Global Warming Swindle does not represent the current state of knowledge in climate
science… Many of the hypotheses presented in the Great Global Warming Swindle have been
considered and rejected by due scientific process. This documentary is far from an objective,
critical examination of climate science. Instead the Great Global Warming Swindle goes to great
lengths to present outdated, incorrect or ambiguous data in such a way as to grossly distort the
true understanding of climate change science, and to support a set of extremely controversial
views.[29]
A public forum entitled "Debunking "The Great Global Warming Swindle"" was held at the
Australian National University in Canberra on 13 July 2007, at which scientists from the
Australian National University, Stanford University, USA, and ARC Centre of Excellence for
Coral Reef Studies exposed what they described "as the scientific flaws and half-truths in the
claims of climate change skeptics"[30]
Criticism from two scientists featured in the programme
Carl Wunsch
Carl Wunsch, professor of Physical Oceanography at MIT, is featured in the Channel 4 version of
the programme. Afterwards he said that he was "completely misrepresented" in the film and had
been "totally misled" when he agreed to be interviewed. [6][31] He called the film "grossly distorted"
and "as close to pure propaganda as anything since World War Two",[32] and he lodged a complaint
with Ofcom. He particularly objected to how his interview material was used:
In the part of The Great Climate Change Swindle where I am describing the fact that the ocean tends
to expel carbon dioxide where it is warm, and to absorb it where it is cold, my intent was to explain
that warming the ocean could be dangerous—because it is such a gigantic reservoir of carbon. By its
placement in the film, it appears that I am saying that since carbon dioxide exists in the ocean in
such large quantities, human influence must not be very important—diametrically opposite to the
point I was making—which is that global warming is both real and threatening.[6]
Filmmaker Durkin responded:
Carl Wunsch was most certainly not 'duped' into appearing in the film, as is perfectly clear from our
correspondence with him. Nor are his comments taken out of context. His interview, as used in the
programme, perfectly accurately represents what he said.[32]
Wunsch has stated that he finds the statements at both extremes of the global climate change debate
distasteful[6] he wrote in a letter dated 15 March 2007 that he believes climate change is "real, a
major threat, and almost surely has a major human-induced component. But I have tried to stay out
of the 'climate wars' because all nuance tends to be lost, and the distinction between what we know
firmly, as scientists, and what we suspect is happening, is so difficult to maintain in the presence of
rhetorical excess." He further cautiously states that "The science of climate change remains
incomplete. Some elements are so firmly based on well-understood principles, or for which the
observational record is so clear, that most scientists would agree that they are almost surely true
(adding CO
2 to the atmosphere is dangerous; sea level will continue to rise, ...). Other elements remain more
uncertain, but we as scientists in our roles as informed citizens believe society should be deeply
concerned about their possibility: failure of US midwestern (sic) precipitation in 100 years in a
mega-drought; melting of a large part of the Greenland ice sheet, among many other examples."
Wunsch has said that he received a letter from the production company, Wag TV, threatening to sue
him for defamation unless he agreed to make a public statement that he was neither misrepresented
nor misled. Wunsch refused,[33] although he states he was forced to hire a solicitor in the UK.[34]
Following Wunsch's complaints, his interview material was removed from the international and
DVD versions of the film.
On 7 December 2007, Wunsch restated his critique on the Australian Broadcasting
Corporation's Lateline programme after the film was screened, saying: "It's not a science film at all.
It's a political statement." In the same interview, reacting to what he claimed were new and further
distortions by Durkin, Wunsch said:
Durkin says that I reacted to the way the film portrayed me because of pressure from my colleagues.
This is completely false. I did hear almost immediately from colleagues in the UK who saw the film
who didn't berate me. They simply said, "This doesn't sound like you, this seems to be distorting
your views, you better have a look at this,"[35]
Ofcom ruling on Wunsch complaint
Ofcom divided Wunsch's complaint into three parts, ruling in his favour on two parts and against
him on one part.[36]
Ofcom agreed with Wunsch that he was misled as to the programme's intent, ruling that he
wasn't given sufficient information about the polemical nature and tone of the programme to
allow him to give informed consent for his participation.
Ofcom also found that Wunsch's general views were misrepresented:
The Committee did not consider that the editing of the programme presented Professor Wunsch as
denying that global warming is taking place. However it noted that the programme included his
edited interview in the context of a range of scientists who denied the scientific consensus about the
anthropogenic causes of global warming. In the Committee's view Professor Wunsch made clear in
his full unedited interview that he largely accepted this consensus and the seriousness of the threat of
global warming (albeit with caveats about proof) and therefore found that the presentation of
Professor Wunsch's views, within the wider context of the programme, resulted in unfairness to him.
However, Ofcom did not uphold Wunsch's complaint that the programme misrepresented his
views in relation to the oceans and CO
2:
The Committee noted from the unedited interview that Professor Wunsch had referred to the
greenhouse effect on a couple of occasions. However, in the Committee’s opinion Professor
Wunsch's comments in this respect had not been primarily to warn of the dangers of warming the
ocean (as Professor Wunsch had suggested in his complaint). Rather the references had been used to
make the point that the relationship between carbon dioxide and atmospheric temperature is
complicated. In the Committee’s view, it was entirely at the programme maker's editorial discretion
to decide whether to include these comments in the programme.
Eigil Friis-Christensen
Eigil Friis-Christensen's research was used to support claims about the influence of solar
activity on climate, both in the programme and Durkin's subsequent defence of it. Friis-
Christensen, with environmental Research Fellow Nathan Rive, criticised the way the solar
data were used:
We have concerns regarding the use of a graph featured in the documentary titled 'Temp &
Solar Activity 400 Years'. Firstly, we have reason to believe that parts of the graph were
made up of fabricated data that were presented as genuine. The inclusion of the artificial
data is both misleading and pointless. Secondly, although the narrator commentary during
the presentation of the graph is consistent with the conclusions of the paper from which the
figure originates, it incorrectly rules out a contribution by anthropogenic greenhouse gases
to 20th century global warming.[7]
In response to a question from The Independent as to whether the programme was
scientifically accurate, Friis-Christensen said: "No, I think several points were not explained
in the way that I, as a scientist, would have explained them ... it is obvious it's not accurate."
Following Eigil Friis-Christensen's criticism of the 'Temp & Solar Activity 400 Years' graph
used in the programme (for perfectly matching the lines in the 100 years 1610–1710 where
data did not in fact exist in the original), Durkin emailed Friis-Christensen to thank him for
highlighting the error: "it is an annoying mistake which all of us missed and is being fixed
for all future transmissions of the film. It doesn't alter our argument".[37]
Reaction in the British media
The documentary received substantial coverage in the British press, both before and after it
was broadcast.
Environmentalist and political activist George Monbiot, writing for The Guardian before the
programme was shown, discussed the arguments for and against the "hockey stick graph"
used in An Inconvenient Truth, saying that the criticism of it has been "debunked". He also
highlighted Durkin's previous documentary Against Nature, where the Independent
Television Commission found that four complainants had been "misled" and their views
were "distorted by selective editing".[38] After the programme was shown, Monbiot wrote
another article arguing that it was based on already debunked science, and he accused
Channel 4 of being more interested in generating controversy than in producing credible
science programmes.[39] Robin McKie, science editor of The Guardian, said the documentary
opted "for dishonest rhetoric when a little effort could have produced an important
contribution to a critical social problem".[40]
Dominic Lawson, writing in The Independent, was favourable toward the programme,
echoing many of its claims and recommending it to the public. He largely focused his
attention on the reactions of the environmental community, first at Durkin's earlier
production, Against Nature, and now at The Great Global Warming Swindle. Lawson
characterised the programme's opponents as being quick to leap to ad hominem attacks
about the director's qualifications and political affiliations rather than the merits of his
factual claims. Lawson summarised examples from the production of how dissenting
scientists are pushed into the background and effectively censored by organisations such as
the IPCC. Lawson described the correlation between sunspots and temperature as
"striking."[41]
Geoffrey Lean, The Independent's environment editor, was critical of the programme. He
noted that Dominic Lawson is the son and brother-in-law, respectively, of two
prominent global warming deniers (Nigel Lawson, who is also featured in the programme,
and Christopher Monckton), implying that Lawson was not a neutral observer. The
Independent mostly disagreed with three of the programme's major claims, for example
stating that "recent solar increases are too small to have produced the present warming, and
have been much less important than greenhouse gases since about 1850".[42] In a
later Independent article, Steve Connor attacked the programme, saying that its makers had
selectively used data that was sometimes decades old, and had introduced other serious
errors of their own:
The original, and corrected versions of Temperature data from TGGWS, along with
NASA GISS data
Mr Durkin admitted that his graphics team had extended the time axis along the bottom of
the graph to the year 2000. 'There was a fluff there,' he said. If Mr Durkin had gone directly
to the NASA website he could have got the most up-to-date data. This would have
demonstrated that the amount of global warming since 1975, as monitored by terrestrial
weather stations around the world, has been greater than that between 1900 and 1940—
although that would have undermined his argument. 'The original NASA data was very
wiggly-lined and we wanted the simplest line we could find,' Mr Durkin said.[43]
Connor also wrote that although the graph in question was attributed to NASA in the film,
when he asked Wag TV where the graph really came from, they told him that it had been
taken from a paper published in Medical Sentinel. Connor noted that "The authors of the
paper are well-known climate sceptics who were funded by the Oregon Institute of Science
and Medicine and the George C. Marshall Institute, a right-wing Washington think-tank."[43]
[44]