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Final Exam - Engg 404 2022
Final Exam - Engg 404 2022
Final Exam - Engg 404 2022
ENGINEERINGFINAL EXAMINATION
SR-Code 20-04624
Name of Student Mentoy Jan Jericho C.
Instructions to Students
TOTAL POINTS 85
2. If there are three possible outcomes under the same decision node, then
A. the probability of each outcome occurring is 1/3.
B. the probability of one outcome occurring cannot exceed (or be less than) 1/3.
C. the chances of each outcome occurring vary depending on the problem.
D. its expected value will always be equal to 1.
7. During sensitivity analysis, PW becomes 0 for an increased MARR and decreased number of economic life.
Which of these can be concluded? Note that PW is positive on the given initial condition.
A. The project is sensitive to MARR and economic life.
B. Increasing the number of years for its economic life must be done to avoid decision reversal.
C. MARR must be fixed to avoid decision reversal.
D. MARR and economic life must be fixed to avoid decision reversal.
8. What is/are the difference/similarities between lexicography and average weighting technique?
A. Significance of the attribute is more important in lexicography.
B. Attributes do not compensate for lexicography as compared with the other.
C. Lexicography is necessary to start average weighting technique, while average weighting technique is not
necessary to start lexicography.
9. In disjunctive resolution,
A. if an alternative never outperforms other alternative in all attributes, then it is likely to be
eliminated.
B. any alternative with all attributes falling within the range set by satisficing can still be eliminated.
C. an alternative with one of its attributes falling below the lowest value of the range set by satisficing shall
beeliminated.
D. alternatives eliminated by this method shall also be the same as those eliminated by satisficing.
1. Project A: Capital: 20,000,000. Annual Benefits: 200,000. Annual Expenses: 85,000. N = 3, i =3.7%
Project B: Capital: 30,000,000. Annual Benefits: 100,000. Annual Expenses: 65,000. N = 4, i =5.7%
Project C: Capital: 25,000,000. Annual Benefits: 150,000. Annual Expenses: 75,000. N = 5, i= 4.7%
2. Project A: B/C = 1.45. Total Annual Cost: 200,000. ∆(B/C) from reference = 0. Project A is the last one.
Project B: B/C = 1.78. Total Annual Cost: 300,000. ∆(B/C) from reference = 0. Project B is the last one.
Project C: B/C = 1.79. Total Annual Cost: 250,000. ∆(B/C) from reference = 0. Project C is the last one.
4. The costs of the possible alternatives under one junction/node are: C1 = 20,000; C2 = 30,000; C3 =
45,000.The probability of each cost appearing based on the different scenarios are:
Project A: p(C1) =0.40; p(C2)= 0.35
Project B: p(C2) = 0.20; p(C3)= 0.25
Project C: p(C1)= p(C2) = p(C3)
5. According to an individual, his preference of selecting a leader is based on three major factors in decreasing
order: Moral Values > Experience > Knowledge. The weights of the factors are 0.43, 0.31, and 0.26, respectively.
The performance values are written for each leader arranged as moral values – experience – knowledge:
Leader A: 1 – 0.5 – 0
Leader B: 0 – 0.25 – 1
Leader C: 0.5 – 0.5 – 0.5
1. (2 pts.) Under a decision alternative, three outcomes O1 to O3 are possible. Suppose that at O1, PW = P250;
at O2, PW = P300; and at O3, PW = 0. What is the expected value if the combined probability of O2 and O3
is twice that of O1, and that O2 has a probability that is 30% of that of O3’s? (Write your final answer like
P200 using “P” as the peso sign.)
SOLUTION:
PW:
O1 = 250
O2= 300
O3 = 0
Let : P1 = x ; P2 =y ; P3 =z
Equations
Eq 1: y+z = 2x
Eq 2:y=0.3z
Eq 3: x+y+z=1
Compute P1
y+z = 2x
x+y+z=1
x+2x=1
3x=1
P1 = 1/3
Compute P3
y+z = 2x ; y=0.3z ; x=1/3
0.3z + z = 2/3
1.3z = 2/3
P3 = 20/39
Compute P2
y=0.3z ; z= 20/39
y=0.3(20/39)
P2=2/13
E(O)=P129.4872
(2 pts. each) For 2 – 6, refer to the decision tree below given the probabilities and respective equivalent worth (PW):
E(D41)= P2700
E(D42)= -200(0.18)+2200(0.82)=P1768
E(D4)=A= P2700
A=P2700
B=2500(0.35)+1500(1-0.35)
B=2500(0.35)+1500(0.65)
B=P1850
B=P1850
1250=1700(0.75)+C(0.25)
C= (1250-(1700*0.75))/0.25
C=-P100
C=-P100
D2=P1440
E(D31)=B
E(D31)=P1850
E(D32)=500(0.32)+0(0.07)+3500(0.61)
E(D32)=P2295
E(D33)=1250
E(D11)=D2P2 + D3P3
D3=2295; P3=0.29; D2=1440; P2=0.71
E(D11)=1440(0.71)+2295(0.29)
E(D11)=1687.95
E(D12)=A
E(D12)=2700
D1 = 2700
Leading Innovations, Transforming Lives
Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
The National Engineering University
Alangilan Campus
Golden Country Homes, Alangilan, Batangas City, Batangas, Philippines 4200
Tel No. (+63 43) 425-0139 loc. 2121 / 2221
E-mail Address: ceafa@g.batstate-u.edu.ph | Website Address: http://www.batstate-u.edu.ph
SOLUTION
GIVEN
C=150,000
AOC= 31,000
AR=50,000
MV/SV=3,000
MARR=10 %
n=15 ; dk+15 =200
Initial
Since Condition B is the only condition that results in a positive value, Condition B is the only one who can cause a decision
revival.
Final Answer:B
8. On the perspective of the ChE company at the present time, is it economical to invest on the said equipment?
(1 pt.)
A. No. B. Yes. C. Maybe. D. Depends on the current situation.
9. What can be concluded with the sensitivity analysis if the MARR ranges from 9% to 11% and economic life
ranges from 12 to 15 years? (2 pts.)
As MARR decreases from its initial value, PW increases value as it becomes more positive. Contrarily, when MARR
approaches the initial value, PW decreases as it becomes more negative.However, there’s no significant change in the sign
of PW when economic life is decrease or increase. However, there is still a difference in value. PW is sensitive to MARR.
Final Answer: B
lYou are willing to pay at most P3,000 for the vaccination and having taken courses under epidemiology, hereare
some points that you have set:
1. Under the delivery method: mRNA > Protein Subunit > Viral Vector.
2. A longer shelf-life is better for efficient containment.
3. In terms of significance: Efficacy > FDA-EUA > Impact to Covid Variant > Shelf-life > Cost > Storage Requirement
> Authorized Groups > Delivery Method.
Some of the important factors are:
a. The age limit of the population is 100 years old. It is in ratio scale.
b. If data is not available, it is considered poor or 1 (in ordinal to ratio scale).
c. Percentages can be directly converted as ratings.
DOMINANCE CHECK
Pfizer(P)
Moderna(M)
Astrazeneca(A)
Sinovac(S)
Novavax(N)
P vs M P vs A P vs S P vs N M vs A M vs S M vs N A vs S A vs N S vs N
Cost Better Worse Better Worse Worse Worse Worse Better Worse Worse
Authorized Better Better Better Better - Better - Better - Worse
Groups
Efficacy (at Worse Better Better Better Better Better Better Worse Worse Worse
fulldose)
Storage Worse Worse Worse Worse Worse Worse Worse - Better Better
Requirement
Shelf-life Worse Worse Worse Worse Worse Worse Worse - - -
after
Thawed
Impact to - Better Better Worse Better Better Worse - Worse Worse
COVID-
variant
FDA-Emergency - Better Better Better - Better Better Better Better -
Use
Authorization
Delivery Method - Better Better Better Better Better Better - Worse Worse
10. Under dominance check, which vaccine will be selected among the alternative? (3 pts.)
11. Considering your preference for delivery method as either Protein Subunit or mRNA, and the vaccine being
FDA-EU Authorized, which shall be selected among the alternatives by satisficing? Take note that for the other
attributes, the values under each attribute are within your set range. (3 pts.)
13. If lexicography is applied considering the given significance, which vaccine will be selected?
Considering the efficacy as the most significant, arrange the vaccines based from efficacy
Efficacy: Moderna>Pfizer>Novavax>Sinovac>AstraZeneca
The Moderna Vaccine will be selected
14. If lexicography is applied considering FDA-EUA > Impact to Covid Variant > Cost > Efficacy > Shelf-life > Storage
Requirement > Authorized Groups > Delivery Method, which vaccine will be selected?
Arrange the vaccines from the given standard
FDA-EUA:
Pfizer=Moderna=AstraZeneca>Sinovac=Novavax
Impact to COVID Variant:
Novavax>Pfizer=Moderna>AstraZeneca=Sinovac
Cost:
Novavax>AstraZeneca>Pfizer>Sinovac>Moderna
Based from the given standards, the Pfizer vaccine will be selected
15. Is it possible to select the best vaccine if dominance check is used, followed by satisficing in number 11?
A. Yes.
B. No.
C. Maybe.
D. Insufficient data.
Performing the dominance check followed by satisficting would not allow to select the best vaccine.
Final Answer: B
For 16-20, refer to the same problem as before assuming that all attributes are compensatory. Also, in the ordinal
ranking, the lowest value (1) goes to the least significant attribute. (3 pts. each)
Shelf-life
5 days 30 days 180 days 180 days 180 days
after
Thawed
Impact to
Fair Fair N/A N/A Good
COVID-
variant
FDA-
EmergencyUse Granted Granted Granted N/A N/A
Authorization
Protein
Delivery mRNA mRNA Viral Vector Viral Vector
Subunit
Method
You are only willing to pay at most P3,000 for the vaccination and having taken courses under epidemiology, here
are some points that you have set:
1. Under the delivery method: mRNA > Protein Subunit > Viral Vector.
2. A longer shelf-life is better for efficient containment.
3. In terms of significance: Efficacy > FDA-EUA > Impact to Covid Variant > Shelf-life > Cost > Storage Requirement
> Authorized Groups > Delivery Method.
Some of the important factors are:
a. The age limit of the population is 100 years old. It is in ratio scale.
b. If data is not available, it is considered poor or 1 (in ordinal to ratio scale).
c. Percentages can be directly converted as ratings.
Order(Most To
Attributes Weight
Least)
8 Efficacy 0.22222222
7 FDA-EUA 0.194444444
6 Impact to Covid Variant 0.166666667
5 Shelf Life After Thawed 0.138888889
4 Cost 0.111111111
3 Storage Requirement 0.083333333
2 Authorized Groups 0.055555556
1 Delivery Method 0.027777778
36
Vaccine
Pfizer 0.94 0.9697
Moderna 0.95 1
Efficacy AstraZeneca 0.62 X-0.62 0
Sinovac 0.78 0.33 0.4849
Novavax 0.897 0.8394
Pfizer 2 1
Moderna 2 X-1 1
FDA-EUA AstraZeneca 2 1 1
Sinovac 1 0
Novavax 1 0
Pfizer 2 0.5
Impact to Moderna 2 X-1 0.5
COVID variant AstraZeneca 1 2 0
Leading Innovations, Transforming Lives
Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
The National Engineering University
Alangilan Campus
Golden Country Homes, Alangilan, Batangas City, Batangas, Philippines 4200
Tel No. (+63 43) 425-0139 loc. 2121 / 2221
E-mail Address: ceafa@g.batstate-u.edu.ph | Website Address: http://www.batstate-u.edu.ph
Sinovac 1 0
Novavax 3 1
Pfizer 5 0
Moderna 30 X-5 0.1429
Shell Life AstraZeneca 180 175 1
After Thawed Sinovac 180 1
Novavax 180 1
Pfizer 2379 0.4310
Moderna 3904 3904-X 0
Cost(P) AstraZeneca 610 3538 0.9310
Sinovac 3629.5 0.0776
Novavax 366 1
Pfizer -70 0
Moderna -20 X+70 0.6494
Storage AstraZeneca 7 77 1
Requirement Sinovac 7 1
Novavax -7 0.8182
Pfizer 0.85 1
Moderna 0.83 X-0.42 0.9535
Authorized AstraZeneca 0.83 0.43 0.9535
Groups Sinovac 0.42 0
Novavax 0.83 0.9535
Pfizer 3 1
Moderna 3 X-1 1
Delivery Method AstraZeneca 1 2 0
Sinovac 1 0
Novavax 2 0.5
16. What is the weight % of the Impact to Covid Variant attribute? (Round to one decimal place.)
17. What is the total average weighted score of Pfizer vaccine? (Round to four decimal place.)
18. Which is the worst option based on total average weighted score?
The worst option based on total average weighted score is the Sinovac (0.3385)
19. What is the weight value of Sinovac’s efficacy? (Round to four decimal place.)
20. What is the total average weighted score of the best vaccine based on compensatory analysis? (Round to four
decimal place.)
Novavax is the best vaccine based on compensatory analysis. It has a total average weighted score of
0.7383
-End of Examination-
Prepared by:
Noted by:
Approved by: