Encuesta

EN P(F/EN) P previa P conjunta P(EN/F)

Favorable 0.7 0.5 0.35 0.78
Desfavorable 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.22
0.45 1.00

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 TreePlan Student Licen

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 24160

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TreePlan Student License 0.78
M favorable

Producir 100000

0 59800 0.22
0.45 Mdesfavorable
Favorable
1 -60000
0 59800

No producir

0 -5000
Encuesta
0.27
-5000 24160 M favorable

Producir 100000

0 -21800 0.73
0.55 Mdesfavorable
Desfavora
2 -60000
0 -5000

No producir

0 -5000

0.89
M favorable

Producir 100000

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 0 62400 0.11
0.45 Mdesfavorable
Favorable
1 -60000
0 62400

1 No producir

0 -20000
Estudio
0.18
-20000 17080 M favorable

Producir 100000

0 -51200 0.82
0.55 Mdesfavorable
Desfavora
2 -60000
0 -20000

No producir

0 -20000

0.5
M favorable

Producir 100000 100000

0 20000 0.5
Mdesfavorable
Alternative 3
1 -60000 -60000
0 20000

No producir

0 0

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 For Education Only
M favorable
95000
95000

Mdesfavorable
-65000
-65000

-5000

M favorable
95000
95000

Mdesfavorable
-65000
-65000

-5000

M favorable
80000
80000

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Mdesfavorable
-80000
-80000

-20000

M favorable
80000
80000

Mdesfavorable
-80000
-80000

-20000

100000

-60000

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 ID Name Value Prob Pred
0 0 TreePlan 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0
0 3 0 0
3 4 1
0 5 1
24 6 0 4
25 7 0 4
26 8 6
27 9 6
0 10 0 5
0 11 0 5
0 12 10
0 13 10
0 14 2
0 15 2
0 16 0 14
0 17 0 14
0 18 16
0 19 16
0 20 0 15
0 21 0 15
0 22 20
0 23 20
24 0 3
25 0 3
26 24
27 24

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Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
D 3 1 2 3 0 0 41 1 1
E 2 4 5 0 0 0 15 5 1
E 2 14 15 0 0 0 45 5 1
D 2 24 25 0 0 0 68 5 1
D 2 6 7 0 0 0 8 9 1
D 2 10 11 0 0 0 23 9 1
E 2 8 9 0 0 0 4 13 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 13 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 17 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 17 1
E 2 12 13 0 0 0 19 13 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 13 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 17 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 17 1
D 2 16 17 0 0 0 38 9 1
D 2 20 21 0 0 0 53 9 1
E 2 18 19 0 0 0 34 13 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 13 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 17 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 17 1
E 2 22 23 0 0 0 49 13 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 13 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 17 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 17 1
E 2 26 27 0 0 0 64 9 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 9 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 13 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 13 1

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 Demanda Promedio Factor Demanda Pronostico c
Trimestre Periodo Real Trimestres estacional DestacionalizadaRegresion Li
1 1 25 25.33 0.55 45.48 45.52
2 2 47 47.33 1.03 45.76 45.62
3 3 68 70.00 1.52 44.77 45.73
4 4 42 41.67 0.90 46.45 45.83
1 5 27 25.33 0.55 49.12 45.93
2 6 46 47.33 1.03 44.79 46.03
3 7 72 70.00 1.52 47.40 46.13
4 8 39 41.67 0.90 43.13 46.24
1 9 24 25.33 0.55 43.66 46.34
2 10 49 47.33 1.03 47.71 46.44
3 11 70 70.00 1.52 46.08 46.54
4 12 44 41.67 0.90 48.66 46.65
1 13 25.33 0.55 - 46.75
2 14 47.33 1.03 - 46.85
3 15 70.00 1.52 - 46.95
4 16 41.67 0.90 - 47.06
25.33 0.55 -
47.33 1.03 -

Promedio 8.5 46.08 30.72

Total 136 553.00 553.00

80

70

60
Demanda

50
Real
40 Destacionalizada

30 Pronostico Final

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Periodos
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Periodos
 Factor Pronostico Error Alfa
estacional Final Cuadratico 0.16
0.55 25.02 0.00 0.02406686
1.03 46.86 0.02 0.13944484 t Ventas
1.52 69.46 2.12 1.45619412 Yt At
0.90 41.44 0.32 0.56454331
0.55 25.25 3.07 1.75101207
1.03 47.28 1.64 1.28080243 1 25 25.00
1.52 70.08 3.70 1.92231345 2 47 28.50
0.90 41.81 7.87 2.80539266 3 68 35.29
0.55 25.47 2.17 1.473909 4 42 37.80
1.03 47.70 1.69 1.29895031 5 27 37.64
1.52 70.70 0.49 0.69917898 6 46 40.23
0.90 42.18 3.33 1.82467138 7 72 46.70
0.55 25.70 8 39 47.61
1.03 48.12 9 24 45.75
1.52 71.32 0.02406686 10 49 47.55
0.90 42.55 11 70 52.44
- - 12 44 52.91
- - 13
- 14
- 15
2.20 16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Real
Destacionalizada 27
Pronostico Final 28

5 16 17 18
5 16 17 18
Beta
0.18

Tt ^Y EMC

0.00 25.00 0.00

0.6193 25.00 484.00 22
1.7139 29.12 1512.03 38.88481381
1.8545 37.01 24.92 4.991946916
1.4982 39.66 160.17 12.65575186
1.6912 39.14 47.02 6.857094957
2.5379 41.92 904.58 30.07625257
2.2496 49.24 104.88 10.24085459
1.5215 49.86 668.90 25.86314927
1.5701 47.27 2.98 1.72505225
2.1579 49.12 436.01 20.88083215
1.8597 54.60 112.26 10.59511264
54.77
56.63 16.797351
58.49
60.35

EMC = 405.25
 Empresas Costo mensual Horas limite Costo/hora adicional
MECO 12000 2200 13
TRUCKs 12500 3200 15
SAENZ 12525 3400 12

Respuesta A.
Horas year 1100 1600 1700
MECO 288000 301000 303600
TRUCKs 300000 300000 303000
SAENZ 300600 300600 300600

Respuesta b.4
En este caso es el menor
Arrepentimiento Minimax
Horas year -288000 -300000 -300600
MECO 0 1000 3000
TRUCKs 12000 0 2400
SAENZ 12600 600 0
Respuesta b.1 Respuesta b.2 Respuesta b.3

En este caso es el menor En este caso es el menor En este caso es el menor

Optimista - Maximax Pesimista - Maximin LAPLACE
288000 303600 297533.33
300000 303000 301000.00
300600 300600 300600.00

3000
12000
12600