Module Eight Honors Notes Guided Notes Name_______________________

Module Eight Honors Notes – HYPOTHESIS, TESTS, & ERRORS

Lesson Overview
Errors happen. In math, sometimes correct math results in an error. Not that the math was incorrect, but
sometimes it doesn’t make sense in the real-world. This is especially true with statistics. In this lesson,
you will learn about errors in statistical testing.

Lesson Objectives & Standards

Learning Objectives: In this less, you will:
1- Learn about Hypothesis, Tests, and Errors.

HYPOTHESIS, TESTS, AND ERRORS

Introduction to Significance Tests

So far you have learned about gathering population means and proportions and comparing them to a
given parameter. When you take data and compare the statistics to a parameter you are performing a test
of significance. A test of significance allows a researcher to test a claim against a population.

For example, you might ask the following questions:

● Is the proportion of high schools that go on to attend college really 75%?

● Is the average age a child begins to walk 12 months?

● Is the rate of cancer higher in Pennsylvania than it is North Carolina?

All of the claims listed above are claims against a population. In the next few slides, we are going to see
how statisticians actually tests these claims to see if they are true or false. The next big question to
answer will be following: What happens if the statisticians made an error. What kind of consequence
will there be?

Let’s look at the vocabulary based on this question.

Mad Man Taco states that the mean weight of their burrito is 2.5 pounds. You have gone several times
and weighed your burrito before eating it and think it is different than what they suggest.

Population Mean The mean of the entire population

- This is what we already know. In this case, the population mean is going to be 2.5
pounds. ALL
Sample Mean - The mean from a sample that is taken from the population.
This comes from the sample we take to see if the sample models the population.
In this case, this is going to be the burritos that I weight before I eat.
PART

Null Hypothesis - The population mean or proportion, what we believe to be true or already know is
true.
This is the claim that we want to test or what we already know.
In this case, the claim is that the burritos weight 2.5 pounds.
Ho

Alternative What we think is true, how we think the mean or proportion is different from the
Hypothesis - population mean or proportion.
In this case, we think the weight of the burrito is different than 2.5 pounds. Ha

Writing a Null and Alternative Hypothesis

The null hypothesis has the form:

H0: parameter = value
The alternative hypothesis has one of the forms:
Ha: parameter < value
Ha: parameter > value
Ha: parameter ≠ value

Mad Men Taco Null Example

H0: μ = 2.5 -- The average weight of the burrito is 2.5 lbs.

Chipotle Alternative Example

Ha: μ < 2.5 You think that the burritos weigh LESS than 2.5 lbs.
Ha: μ >2.5 You think that the burritos weigh MORE than 2.5 lbs.
Ha: μ ≠ 2.5 You think the weight of the burrito is DIFFERENT than 2.5 lbs.
Write the null and alternative hypothesis based on the information given:
A) Rabid Runners’ states that the mean age of marathon runners is 25. You doubt the claim, and you
think it’s older than that because the information is out of date and more people are starting to run at a
later age.

Null: μ = 25 Alternative: μ > 25

B) New Zealand claims that the average proportion of the population living in an earthquake zone is

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about 85%. After living in New Zealand for several months and having never felt any of the earthquakes
reported you think it’s less.

Null: p = 0.85 Alternative: p < 0.85

C) Do Facebook political “attack ads” work? A presidential candidate who currently has the support of
only 35% of the voters places an ad on Facebook that aggressively attacks the character of his opponent.
Did the attack ad change the percentage of voters that would vote for the candidate?

Null: p = 0.35 Alternative: p ≠ 0.35

What’s important about the null and alternative?

1) They are always written in terms of a population parameter, done NEVER the sample.
2) The null will always have an equal sign.
3) You must write the null and alternative BEFORE you gather any data to test the null. You are
writing what you THINK is true and then you will gather data to determine whether or not your
sample follows the null or alternative.
4) When looking at your results – you either reject the null (you think the alternative is true) or
you fail to reject the null (you think the null is true).
5) You NEVER state accept the null or accept the alternative.

Type I and Type II Errors

Let’s take a look at the following null and alternative hypothesis.

Rabid Runners’ states that the mean age of marathon runners is 25. You doubt the claim, and you think
it’s older than that because the information is out of date and more people are starting to run at a later
age.

Null: μ = 25 Alternative: μ > 25

Reject the Null: you reject the null in favor of the alternative. After taking many samples, you
have found evidence that the average age is of a marathon runner is more than
25.

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 Fail to reject the Null: you fail to reject the null. After taking many samples, you have not found
evidence in the direction of the alternative.

You cannot conclude that the average age of a marathon runner is more than
25. Be careful, it could be less than 25 but we did not look at that direction in
our test.

NEVER ACCEPT THE NULL!

TYPE I and TYPE II ERRORS

What happens if you make the wrong conclusion?

If we reject H0 when H0 is true, we have committed a Type I error.

You get rid of the null when it’s actually true!
If we fail to reject H0 when Ha is true, we have committed a Type II error.
You keep the null when the alternative is true!

What do Type I and Type II Errors Look Like?

You work at a retail store. The alarm on the door frequently, sounds when people are leaving. You must
decide to check someone’s bag when they leave or just let them go.

Null:  Ho: Stolen Merchandise

Alternative:  Ha: No Stolen Merchandise

Type I error: the null hypothesis is true but gets rejected.

Context: You don’t check a person that did steal merchandise.
Consequence: the person gets away and the store loses money.

Type II error: The null hypothesis is false but is not rejected.

Context: You check a person that did not steal anything.
Consequence: The person is embarrassed, and you feel bad for checking that person.

The decision to implement changes in the current math program at Mount Airy High School will be
based on a sample of students’ EOC scores. If the average is less than the statewide average of 75%, all
math teachers will have to participate in a workshop to revise the curriculum.
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 Null:  Ho: μ = 25 The test scores at Mount Airy HS are 75%
Alternative:  Ha: μ < 25 The test scores at Mount Airy HS are less than 75%

Type I error: the null hypothesis is true but gets rejected

Context: You think the test scores are less than 75%, when in fact they were 75%
Consequence: Teachers will have to participate in a workshop to revise the curriculum, and this
wastes the school districts time and money.

Type II error: The null hypothesis is false but is not rejected

Context: You think the test scores are 75% when in fact they are less than 75%.
Consequence: You don’t spend the time and money to revise the curriculum, but the students
suffer.
Which Consequence is Worse?

Type II Error
Type II Error is worse in this case because the students are suffering. They will not get access to the
learning they need to succeed.