SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9852408234
R Square 0.97069948
Adjusted R Square 0.9699481846
Standard Error 0.1364580179
Observations 41

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 24.058702032 24.058702032 1292.0343981 1.6361813E-31
Residual 39 0.72621083513 0.0186207906
Total 40 24.7849128671

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 3.2715077669 0.04341413762 75.355816006 7.332948E-44 3.183694385
Time(t) -0.0647411114 0.00180112192 -35.94488 1.636181E-31 -0.0683842243
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
3.3593211489 3.183694385 3.3593211489
-0.0610979984 -0.0683842243 -0.0610979984
 S= Saturation (For
Actual Car for 100 every 4 people 1 car is
Year Population Car Population(Ct) needed) ln[(S/C-1]) Time(t)
1966 3140214 31348 0.998 25 3.180 1 lna
1967 3268445 32494 0.994 3.184 2b
1968 3401904 41380 1.216 2.973 3a
1969 3540813 47609 1.345 2.868 4
1970 3685394 54502 1.479 2.767 5
1971 4065698 61521 1.513 Inflection Point 2.742 6
1972 4238490 68681 1.620 13 2.669 7
1973 4418626 75860 1.717 -51 2.607 8
1974 4606418 81949 1.779 2.569 9
1975 4802190 86669 1.805 After 51 time period, 2.554 10
the growth will be
1976 5006283 93196 1.862 decrease i.e. after 2.520 11
1977 5219050 99736 1.911 2016 2.492 12
1978 5440860 105204 1.934 2.479 13
1979 5672097 110775 1.953 2.468 14
1980 5913161 117213 1.982 2.452 15
1981 6220406 123655 1.988 2.449 16
1982 6478553 134084 2.070 2.405 17
1983 6747413 142299 2.109 2.385 18
1984 7027430 153021 2.177 2.350 19
1985 7319069 174890 2.390 2.247 20
1986 7622810 202905 2.662 2.127 21
1987 7939157 241851 3.046 1.975 22
1988 8268632 279708 3.383 1.855 23
1989 8611780 332761 3.864 1.699 24
1990 8969169 383610 4.277 1.578 25
1991 9420644 427743 4.540 1.505 26
1992 9783339 468809 4.792 1.439 27
1993 10159997 510242 5.022 1.381 28
1994 10551157 557543 5.284 1.317 29
1995 10957377 617585 5.636 1.234 30
1996 11379236 685850 6.027 1.147 31
1997 11817336 705923 5.974 1.158 32
1998 12272304 765470 6.237 1.101 33
1999 12744788 818962 6.426 1.061 34
2000 13235462 869820 6.572 1.031 35
2001 13782976 920723 6.680 1.009 36
2002 14273000 968894 6.788 0.987 37
2003 14698000 1214693 8.264 0.706 38
2004 15129000 1314672 8.690 0.630 39
2005 15569000 1431638 9.195 0.542 40
2006 16021000 1466641 9.154 0.549 41
2007 16484000 42
2008 16955000 43
2009 17437000 44
2010 17935000 45
2011 18451000 46
2012 18983000 47
2013 19529000 48
2014 20092000 49
2015 20676000 50
2016 21285000 51
2017 21896000 52
2018 22523000 53
2019 23164000 54
2020 23818000 55
2021 24485000 56
2022 57
2023 58
2024 59
2025 60
2026 61
2027 62
2028 63
2029 64
2030 65
2031 66
2032 67
2033 68
2034 69
2035 70
2036 71
2037 72
2038 73
2039 74
2040 75
2041 76
2042 77
2043 78
2044 79
2045 80
2046 81
2047 82
2048 83
2049 84
2050 85
 PredictedCt=S/ Predicted
Coefficients (1+ae-bt) RMSE Car MPE
3.2715077669 0.973 0.000649 30547.9 0.025523
-0.0647411114 1.035 0.00168 33833.84 -0.041233
26.351040633 1.101 0.013231 37466.9 0.094565
1.172 0.029935 41482.76 0.128678 25.000

1.246 0.05422 45920.46 0.157454

20.000
1.325 0.035434 53867.75 0.124401
1.409 0.044883 59701.45 0.130743
15.000
1.497 0.048269 66152.19 0.12797
1.591 0.035396 73282.62 0.105753 10.000
1.690 0.013154 81161.35 0.063548
1.795 0.004431 89863.39 0.035759 5.000
1.906 2.585E-05 99470.66 0.00266
2.023 0.008007 110072.5 -0.046277 0.000
2.147 0.037551 121766.4 -0.099223 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29

2.277 0.08704 134658.3 -0.148834

2.415 0.182303 150214.2 -0.214785
2.560 0.240273 165840.4 -0.236839
2.712 0.364246 183021.5 -0.286176
2.873 0.4838 201900.8 -0.319432
3.042 0.4255 222632.5 -0.272986
3.219 0.310528 245383.1 -0.20935
3.405 0.12869 270331.5 -0.11776
3.600 0.047186 297669.4 -0.064215
3.804 0.003588 327602.7 0.015501
4.018 0.067247 360351.2 0.060631
4.241 0.089814 399510.2 0.066004
4.474 0.101274 437674.9 0.066411
4.716 0.093409 479190.1 0.060857
4.969 0.099226 524306.7 0.059612
5.232 0.163429 573288.3 0.071726
5.505 0.272843 626411.3 0.086664
5.788 0.034528 683964.3 0.031106
6.081 0.024531 746248.6 0.025111
6.384 0.001785 813576.7 0.006576
6.696 0.015452 886272.7 -0.018915
7.018 0.114368 967334.6 -0.050625
7.350 0.315209 1049028 -0.082706
7.690 0.329758 1130290 0.069485
8.039 0.42342 1216226 0.074882
8.396 0.638882 1307195 0.086924
8.761 0.154909 1403585 0.042994
9.133 0.367593 1505451 -0.009459
9.511 1612631
9.896 1725493
10.285 1844640
10.679 1970417
11.077 2102742
11.478 2241480
11.881 2387040
12.285 2539984
12.689 2700916
13.093 2866951
13.496 3039806
13.897 3219179
14.295 3404862
14.690 3596760
15.080
15.464
15.843
16.215
16.581
16.938
17.288
17.629
17.961
18.283
18.597
18.900
19.194
19.477
19.751
20.014
20.268
20.511
20.745
20.968
21.182
21.387
21.583
21.769
21.947
22.116
22.277
22.431
22.576
 Chart Title
25.000

20.000

15.000

10.000

5.000

0.000
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41

Column D Column J
 S= Saturation (For
Actual Car for 100 every 4 people 1 car is
Year Population Car Population(Ct) needed) ln[ln[(S/Ct]) Time(t)
1966 3140214 31348 0.998 25 1.170 1
1967 3268445 32494 0.994 1.171 2
1968 3401904 41380 1.216 1.106 3
1969 3540813 47609 1.345 1.073 4
1970 3685394 54502 1.479 1.039 5
1971 4065698 61521 1.513 1.031 6
1972 4238490 68681 1.620 1.007 7
1973 4418626 75860 1.717 0.985 8
1974 4606418 81949 1.779 0.972 9
1975 4802190 86669 1.805 0.966 10
1976 5006283 93196 1.862 0.955 11
1977 5219050 99736 1.911 Inflection point=s/e 0.944 12
1978 5440860 105204 1.934 9.19698602928606 0.940 13
1979 5672097 110775 1.953 Time for saturation is 0.936 14
1980 5913161 117213 1.982 -45 0.930 15
1981 6220406 123655 1.988 0.929 16
1982 6478553 134084 2.070 0.913 17
1983 6747413 142299 2.109 0.905 18
1984 7027430 153021 2.177 0.892 19
1985 7319069 174890 2.390 0.853 20
1986 7622810 202905 2.662 0.806 21
1987 7939157 241851 3.046 0.744 22
1988 8268632 279708 3.383 0.693 23
1989 8611780 332761 3.864 0.624 24
1990 8969169 383610 4.277 0.569 25
1991 9420644 427743 4.540 0.534 26
1992 9783339 468809 4.792 0.502 27
1993 10159997 510242 5.022 0.473 28
1994 10551157 557543 5.284 0.441 29
1995 10957377 617585 5.636 0.399 30
1996 11379236 685850 6.027 0.352 31
1997 11817336 705923 5.974 0.359 32
1998 12272304 765470 6.237 0.328 33
1999 12744788 818962 6.426 0.306 34
2000 13235462 869820 6.572 0.290 35
2001 13782976 920723 6.680 0.277 36
2002 14273000 968894 6.788 0.265 37
2003 14698000 1214693 8.264 0.102 38
2004 15129000 1314672 8.690 0.055 39
2005 15569000 1431638 9.195 0.000 40
2006 16021000 1466641 9.154 0.005 41
2007 16484000 42
2008 16955000 43
2009 17437000 44
2010 17935000 45
2011 18451000 46
2012 18983000 47
2013 19529000 48
2014 20092000 49
2015 20676000 50
2016 21285000 51
2017 21896000 52
2018 22523000 53
2019 23164000 54
2020 23818000 55
2021 24485000 56
2022 57
2023 58
2024 59
2025 60
2026 61
2027 62
2028 63
2029 64
2030 65
2031 66
2032 67
2033 68
2034 69
2035 70
2036 71
2037 72
2038 73
2039 74
2040 75
2041 76
2042 77
2043 78
2044 79
2045 80
2046 81
2047 82
2048 83
2049 84
2050 85
 PredictedCt=S
*exp(-a*exp(-
Coefficients bt) RMSE Predicted Car MPE
lna 1.27677 0.767 0.054 24078.096 0.23191
b -0.02846 0.846 0.022 27635.344 0.149525
a 3.5850413208 0.930 0.082 31631.161 0.235593
1.020 0.105 36108.336 0.241565
1.116 0.132 41112.542 0.245669
1.217 0.088 49490.015 0.195559
1.325 0.087 56159.402 0.182315
1.439 0.077 63576.116 0.161928
1.559 0.048 71806.066 0.123771
1.685 0.014 80919.292 0.066341
1.818 0.002 90990.114 0.023669
1.956 0.002 102097.278 -0.023675
2.101 0.028 114324.104 -0.08669
2.252 0.090 127758.644 -0.153317
2.410 0.183 142493.831 -0.215683
2.573 0.343 160067.019 -0.294465
2.743 0.453 177692.057 -0.325229
2.918 0.655 196905.003 -0.383741
3.100 0.850 217816.049 -0.423439
3.286 0.805 240540.714 -0.375383
3.479 0.668 265199.996 -0.307016
3.677 0.398 291920.543 -0.207026
3.880 0.247 320834.820 -0.147035
4.088 0.050 352081.292 -0.058061
4.301 0.001 385804.604 -0.005721
4.519 0.000 425737.452 0.004689
4.741 0.003 463866.133 0.010543
4.968 0.003 504729.405 0.010804
5.198 0.007 548474.060 0.016266
5.432 0.042 595252.286 0.036161
5.670 0.127 645221.824 0.059238
5.911 0.004 698546.127 0.01045
6.155 0.007 755394.535 0.013162
6.402 0.001 815942.457 0.003687
6.652 0.006 880371.557 -0.012131
6.903 0.050 951489.712 -0.033416
7.157 0.136 1021545.819 -0.054342
7.413 0.725 1089537.824 0.103034
7.670 1.040 1160401.060 0.117346
7.929 1.605 1234402.462 0.137769
8.188 0.934 1311836.929 0.10555
8.449 0.498 1392689.652 -0.015118
8.710 1476758.250
8.971 1564344.191
 9.233 1655961.882
9.495 1751890.114
9.756 1852035.134
10.017 1956278.930
10.278 2064993.107
10.537 2178682.370
10.796 2297889.161
11.053 2420208.762
11.309 2547180.893
11.564 2678635.101
11.817 2814495.177
12.068 2954792.078
12.317
12.564
12.809
13.052
13.292
13.529
13.765
13.997
14.227
14.453
14.677
14.898
15.116
15.331
15.543
15.752
15.957
16.159
16.359
16.554
16.747
16.936
17.122
17.305
17.485
17.661
17.834
18.004
18.171
 Chart Title
20.000
18.000
16.000
14.000
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0.000
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41

Column D Column J