Actual Predicted Predictive

Month-Yr Naïve Naïve

Sales
Marginal RMSE MPE Exponential RMSE MPE
Yt-1 Jan-02 5
Yt Feb-02 8
Yt+1 Mar-02 10 11 1.00 -0.100 12.80 7.84 -0.280
Apr-02 14 12 4.00 0.143 12.50 2.25 0.107
May-02 13 18 25.00 -0.385 19.60 43.56 -0.508
Jun-02 16 12 16.00 0.250 12.07 15.43 0.246
Jul-02 17 19 4.00 -0.118 19.69 7.25 -0.158
Aug-02 19 18 1.00 0.053 18.06 0.88 0.049
Sep-02 18 21 9.00 -0.167 21.24 10.47 -0.180
Oct-02 21 17 16.00 0.190 17.05 15.58 0.188
Nov-02 23 24 1.00 -0.043 24.50 2.25 -0.065
Dec-02 25 25 0.00 0.000 25.19 0.04 -0.008
Jan-03 27 27 0.00 0.000 27.17 0.03 -0.006
Feb-03 26 29 9.00 -0.115 29.16 9.99 -0.122
Mar-03 29 25 16.00 0.138 25.04 15.71 0.137
Apr-03 30 32 4.00 -0.067 32.35 5.50 -0.078
May-03 33 31 4.00 0.061 31.03 3.86 0.060
Jun-03 37 36 1.00 0.027 36.30 0.49 0.019
Jul-03 36 41 25.00 -0.139 41.48 30.08 -0.152
Aug-03 38 35 9.00 0.079 35.03 8.84 0.078
Sep-03 40 40 0.00 0.000 40.11 0.01 -0.003
Oct-03 41 42 1.00 -0.024 42.11 1.22 -0.027
Nov-03 39 42 9.00 -0.077 42.03 9.15 -0.078
Dec-03 40 37 9.00 0.075 37.10 8.42 0.073
Jan-04 41 2.730 -0.010 41.03 3.006 -0.032
Feb-04 42 42.08
Mar-04 43 43.16
Apr-04 44 44.26
May-04 45 45.40
Jun-04 46 46.56
Jul-04 47 47.76
Aug-04 48 48.98
Sep-04 49 50.24
Oct-04 50 51.52
Nov-04 51 52.85
Dec-04 52 54.20
 Trend Predicted
Time Intercept 5.63 Regression RMSE MPE Level Lt Trend Tt Holt Alpha
1 Time 1.57 7.19 4.81 -0.439 5.00 0.00 0.78421
2 8.76 0.58 -0.095 7.35 0.60 5
3 10.33 0.11 -0.033 9.56 1.00 7.948096
4 11.89 4.44 0.151 13.26 1.69 10.55997
5 13.46 0.21 -0.035 13.42 1.30 14.94323
6 15.03 0.95 0.061 15.72 1.55 14.71918
7 16.59 0.17 0.024 17.06 1.50 17.27769
8 18.16 0.71 0.044 18.90 1.59 18.55888
9 19.73 2.98 -0.096 18.54 1.09 20.49133
10 21.29 0.09 -0.014 20.70 1.36 19.62962
11 22.86 0.02 0.006 22.80 1.55 22.06831
12 24.43 0.33 0.023 24.86 1.68 24.3479
13 25.99 1.02 0.037 26.90 1.77 26.53767
14 27.56 2.43 -0.060 26.58 1.24 28.67039
15 29.12 0.02 -0.004 28.74 1.48 27.81635
16 30.69 0.48 -0.023 30.05 1.43 30.21963
17 32.26 0.55 0.022 32.67 1.73 31.47885
18 33.82 10.09 0.086 36.44 2.25 34.40514
19 35.39 0.37 0.017 36.58 1.71 38.68849
20 36.96 1.09 0.027 38.06 1.66 38.29495
21 38.52 2.18 0.037 39.94 1.71 39.71991
22 40.09 0.83 0.022 41.14 1.58 41.65141
23 41.66 7.06 -0.068 39.80 0.84 42.72312
24 43.22 10.39 -0.081 40.14 0.72 40.64697 P
25 44.79 1.470 -0.016 40.85475 1
26 46.36 41.56989 2
27 47.92 42.28503 3
28 49.49 43.00017 4
29 51.06 43.71531 5
30 52.62 44.43045 6
31 54.19 45.14559 7
32 55.76 45.86073 8
33 57.32 46.57587 9
34 58.89 47.29102 10
35 60.46 48.00616 11
36 62.02 48.7213 12
Beta RMSE MPE alpha
0.253107 1st 0.7
9.00 0.375 2nd 0.21
4.21 0.205 3rd 0.063
11.83 0.246 0.0189
3.78 -0.149
1.64 0.080
0.08 -0.016
0.19 0.023 45
6.21 -0.138 40
1.88 0.065 35
0.87 0.041 30
0.43 0.026 25
0.21 0.017 20
7.13 -0.103 15
1.40 0.041
10
0.05 -0.007
5
2.31 0.046
0
6.73 0.070 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
7.23 -0.075
0.09 -0.008
0.08 0.007
0.42 -0.016
13.86 -0.095
0.42 -0.016
1.866 0.027
Chart Title
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324

Column C Column M
 Actual Sales
alpha(1-alpha) 45
alpha(1-alpha)(1-alpha) 40
alpha(1-alpha)^3 Chart Title 35
45 Chart Title
Chart Title30
40 25
35
50 45 Chart Title
45 40 20
45 30 40 35 15
40 25 35
30 10
35 20 30
25 5
30 15 25
20
25 10 20 0
15 15 Jan-02 Mar-02May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Ma
20 5
10 10
15 0
1 2 53 4 5 6 7 58 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
10 0 0
1 2 3 4 Actual
5 1 6 2Sales
7 3 84 95 Predictive
10
6 711 812 Naïve
9 13 Exponential
10 14 15 13
11 12 16 1417151816 19
17 20 21 20
18 19 22 212322 24
23 24
5
0 Column C Column
Column C M Column R
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Column C Column D

21222324

Column M
 Actual Sales

ul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03

21 22 23 24
44.78981 3.801981
46.35633 3.836358 0.034975
47.92285 3.869592 0.033793
49.48937 3.901758 0.032688
51.05589 3.932921 0.031654
52.62241 3.963142 0.030682
54.18893 3.992477 0.029769
55.75545 4.020975 0.028908
57.32197 4.048684 0.028096
Cha
58.88849 4.075646 0.027328 4.2
60.45501 4.101899 0.026601
4.1 f(x) = 0.0295135833863935 x + 3.78
62.02153 4.127482 0.025912
CAGR 0.030037 4

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6
81 33 85 37 89 24
789 356 922 489 055 62
. . . . . .
44 46 47 49 51 52
 Chart Title

f(x) = 0.0295135833863935 x + 3.78090456582881

33 85 37 89 41 93 45 97 49 01 53
356 922 489 055 622 188 755 321 888 455 021
. . . . . . . . . . .
46 47 49 51 52 54 55 57 58 60 62