A Look at Success in the MLB

Playoffs: Updated Methods and

What Works

Edward J. “E.J.” Wong and

Dr. Andy Andres
Boston University
SABR Baltimore 2022
The Playoffs: Variable Format, Hard to Study
Many different formats since the start of the World Series in 1903
Expansion of the playoffs increased a team’s likelihood of making the postseason

Era 1

Era 2

Era 3
 What works in the Playoffs?
● Nate Silver in Baseball Between the
Numbers (2006) looks at this question
for playoffs between 1972-1995 (“Why
Doesn't Billy Beane’s $*!% Work in the
Playoffs?”)
● Develops a model of playoff success
called Playoffs Success Points (PSP)
● Silver’s Conclusions:
○ Defense probably helps win
championships
○ Offense is likely of diminished importance
○ He noted the potential effect of weather
○ Also noted the that there are no bad teams
in the playoffs
What works in the Playoffs?
● Lindbergh and Carleton show that the best
significant predictor for playoff success is
regular season Winning Percentage (Grantland, 7 Aug 14)
○ Other theories re playoff success: (Grantland, 25 Sept 14)
■ Teams with a better recent W-L record
■ Postseason experience
■ “Small Ball” offense (vs. “Reliance on Home
Run”)
■ Elite top of the rotation starting pitching
● Myths, cannot be shown to matter
● But there may be a small effect, just not seen
with small sample sizes of playoffs
What works in the Playoffs?
● Eno Sarris (The Athletic, 2019): “What —
if anything — predicts a team’s success
in the postseason?”
● Looked at years 2000-2018, compared
top 20% Playoff WPct (best teams in
playoffs) to the whole sample of playoff
teams
● Team that strike out less do better in the
playoffs, better contact may work
against the better power pitching in the
playoffs
What works in the Playoffs?
● Randomness and small sample size of the
playoffs is real, so any effect will be small My $#!* doesn’t work
● Past research indicates maybe defense, maybe in the playoffs, my job
offense, maybe increased batting contact is to get us to the
indicate success in the playoffs
playoffs. What
● Want to increase statistical power
● Regular season winning percentage is the best
happens after that is
predictor of playoff success f’ing luck. -
○ Silver’s PSP was a good method to discriminate playoff Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane
success, but was it the best? quoted in Moneyball
○ We wanted to develop a better model of playoff
success, also increasing sample size to include more
years
Methods: A Playoff Success Points Model
● We created our initial model
based on Nate Silver’s PSP model Nate Silver's 2006 PSP Model
● One goal of our study is to
Teams get:
determine a better method to
study this question 3 points for making the playoffs
● Improved Silver’s model by: 3 points for winning the LDS
○ Involved using mathematical
technique called Point Biserial 4 points for winning the LCS
Correlation to optimize points value 4 points for winning the World Series
○ Using as many years as possible
○ Maximizing the correlation of PSP 1 point for each postseason win
model with winning percentage
(best known predictor of playoff
-1 point for each postseason loss
success)
Building a New Model For Playoff Success
● To achieve maximal statistical The PSP Adjustments:
power we merged our eras. Wins from Era 2A (1969-1984) to Era 2B (1985-1993):
● With the structure of the
Era2Wins = ⁄*(Era 2A)
playoffs so different, we made
Wins from Era 2 (1969-1993) to Era 3 (1995-2021):
adjustments to equate our PSP
⁄*(Era2Wins)
models.
Win series from Era 2 (1969-1993) to Era 3 (1995-2021):
● This helped normalize our data
and prevent skew, maximizing ⁄*(Era 2 Total Series Points)
our model.
Team Season ‘Plus’ Statistics and Other Data

● ‘Plus’ statistics are

important and are used to
standardize the data.
● We are able to compare
each season equally and
have a notionally common
scale.
● Pitching, Hitting, Fielding

‘Plus’ Statistic Calculation:

Stat+ = (League Average Stat)/(Team

Stat)*100
Our Best PSP Model v. Win Percentage
ANOVA Graphical Results
● These statistics are significant
predictors of PSP
● They tend to be pitching statistics,
which agree with Silver’s result
○ Pitchers maximizing runners left
on base leads to playoff success
○ Other regular season team
pitching measurements assist in
predicting PSP
● Follow a general normal distribution
Significance of Pitching and Playoff Success

● LOB%+ is the most

correlated and most
significant
● Leveraging control of
runners on base is
important in the playoffs
● AVG+, ERA-, and WHIP+
are also significant
factors in PSP
Results: wRC+ is Significant Also

● Run production as a team,

measured by wRC+ is still
significant to PSP
● Better pitching matters
against playoff teams more
than better hitting
● Hitting statistics are more
important to regular
season success because
run scoring drops in the
playoffs
Conclusion
● We developed an improved metric to measure the playoff success of teams
who make the playoffs
● We also found that teams being able to maximize runners left on base plays a
key role in teams succeeding in the playoffs
● Others measures of regular season team pitching performance significantly
predict playoff success
● It is important to note that team batting performance still has an impact in the
playoffs partly because run scoring drops in the playoffs