The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species™

ISSN 2307-8235 (online)

IUCN 2019: T22698084A152715347
Scope: Global
Language: English

Pterodroma incerta, Atlantic Petrel

Assessment by: BirdLife International

View on www.iucnredlist.org

Citation: BirdLife International. 2019. Pterodroma incerta. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species
2019: e.T22698084A152715347. http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2019-
3.RLTS.T22698084A152715347.en

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THE IUCN RED LIST OF THREATENED SPECIES™

Taxonomy
Kingdom Phylum Class Order Family

Animalia Chordata Aves Procellariiformes Procellariidae

Taxon Name:  Pterodroma incerta (Schlegel, 1863)

Synonym(s):
• Procellaria incerta Schlegel, 1863

Common Name(s):
• English: Atlantic Petrel
• French: Pétrel de Schlegel
• Spanish: Petrel de Schlegel
Taxonomic Source(s):
Brooke, M. de L. 2004. Albatrosses and Petrels Across the World. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Identification Information:
43 cm. Large, stocky, dark brown-and-white petrel. Uniformly dark chocolate-brown above and on upper
breast. Head can appear grey in worn plumage. Sharp demarcation from brown upper breast to white
lower breast and belly. Brown vent, undertail-coverts and tail. Uniform brown underwing. Similar spp.
Soft-plumaged Petrel P. mollis has patterned underwing. Trindade Petrel P. arminjoniana has white wing
flashes. Hints May flap at top of glides unlike most Pterodroma spp. Concentrates around subtropical
convergence.

Assessment Information
Red List Category & Criteria: Endangered B2ab(v) ver 3.1

Year Published: 2019

Date Assessed: June 14, 2019

Justification:
This species has been listed as Endangered because it has a very small occupied breeding range, and
there is now evidence that chick predation by introduced mice is causing very low breeding success and
is likely to be causing the population to decline. It has not been recorded from Tristan de Cunha for 35
years, and, were it to be confirmed as locally extinct there, it may qualify for uplisting to Critically
Endangered.

Previously Published Red List Assessments

2018 – Endangered (EN)
http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2018-2.RLTS.T22698084A132623707.en

2016 – Endangered (EN)

http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2016-3.RLTS.T22698084A95224555.en

© The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: Pterodroma incerta – published in 2019. 1
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2012 – Endangered (EN)

2010 – Endangered (EN)

2008 – Endangered (EN)

2007 – Vulnerable (VU)

2006 – Vulnerable (VU)

2004 – Vulnerable (VU)

2000 – Vulnerable (VU)

1996 – Vulnerable (VU)

1994 – Vulnerable (VU)

1988 – Lower Risk/least concern (LR/lc)

Geographic Range
Range Description:
Pterodroma incerta breeds only on Gough Island, Tristan da Cunha (St Helena to UK). It is absent from
Nightingale Island where there is no suitable habitat, and probably also from Inaccessible Island,
although it is possible that a small number of birds could breed there (P. G. Ryan in litt. 1999). The
species's occurrence on Tristan da Cunha is unclear; in 1972-1974 the population there was estimated to
be 100-200 pairs, and there may only be a few scattered pairs remaining. On Gough Island, the first
quantitative population estimate indicates a total of around 1.8 million pairs (Cuthbert 2004), which is
considerably larger than the earlier estimate of at least 20,000 pairs (P. G. Ryan in litt. 1999). However, a
recent estimate taking into account the occupancy rates of burrows which are suitable for the species
halves this number and suggests a population size of 860,000 pairs, varying between 630,000 and
1,100,000 pairs (Rexer-Huber et al. 2014), and several studies revealed very low breeding success of less
than 20% (Cuthbert and Hilton 2004, Wanless et al. 2007, Dilley et al. 2015). At sea, it is practically
restricted to the South Atlantic, occurring off the east coast of South America to the west coast of Africa
(Enticott 1991, P. G. Ryan in litt. 1999), occasionally rounding the Cape of Good Hope into the Indian
Ocean (Hobbs in litt. 2009).

Country Occurrence:
Native: Argentina; Brazil; Falkland Islands (Malvinas); Namibia; Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da
Cunha (Tristan da Cunha); South Africa; Uruguay

Vagrant: Antarctica; Israel; Jordan; South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands

FAO Marine Fishing Areas:

Native: Atlantic - southwest, Atlantic - southeast, Atlantic - Antarctic

© The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: Pterodroma incerta – published in 2019. 2
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Distribution Map
Pterodroma incerta

© The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: Pterodroma incerta – published in 2019. 3
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Population
On Gough Island, Cuthbert (2004) estimated 1.8 million breeding pairs in 2001, suggesting a world
population of around 5 million birds. The population size was re-estimated by Rexer-Huber et al. (2014),
taking into account the occupancy rates of suitable burrows in 2010 and 2012. This new estimate
indicates a population size of 860,000 pairs, varying between 630,000 and 1,100,000 pairs. Because
occupancy rates varied interannually, the species’s total breeding area could only be estimated crudely,
and burrow densities were assumed to be similar throughout the habitat. This estimate should,
therefore, be treated with caution.

Trend Justification
Stochastic population models computing a breeding success of 24.7% and parameters estimated for
other gadfly petrels (adult survival = 93%, immature survival = 79% and recruitment age = 6 years)
suggest a population decline of 0.7% per annum (Wanless et al. 2012). This would equate to a decline of
28% over three generations (c. 47 years). However, given that breeding success seems to be less than
20% (Cuthbert and Hilton 2004, Wanless et al. 2012, Dilley et al. 2015) and that survival rates did not
take into account predation by Subantarctic Skuas Catharacta antarctica and thus were probably over-
estimated, the population might be decreasing at a faster rate. Therefore, declines are placed here in
the range 30-49% over three generations.
Current Population Trend:  Decreasing

Habitat and Ecology (see Appendix for additional information)

This species feeds mainly on squid with some fish and crustaceans (Klages and Cooper 1997). It nests in
burrows dug in peaty soils in fern-bush vegetation from 50-300 m on Gough Island and, formerly, at
higher elevations of up to 700 m on Tristan da Cunha. Nothing is known of age of first breeding,
breeding frequency or survival (P. G. Ryan in litt. 1999). Heavily affected by Hurricane Catarina in March
2004, 354 birds were recorded blown inland, all in heavy moult and near starvation (Bugoni et al. 2007).
Larger numbers of females among these were thought to be due to difference in at-sea distribution or in
body condition (Bugoni et al. 2007). Evidence suggests moult is completed during the exodus period and
before egg-laying, which occurs from 15 June to 21 July (Cuthbert 2004).

Systems:  Terrestrial, Marine

Threats (see Appendix for additional information)

This species is primarily threatened by a reduction in reproductive success due to depredation of nests
by invasive House Mice. On Gough Island, where 90% of the global population is found, chick failure was
87% in 2014-15, with chicks attacked by mice within 2 hours of hatching and dead within 3-7 hours
(Dilley et al. 2015). On Tristan da Cunha, rats and mice are present and have likely contributed to the
extirpation of the Atlantic Petrel from the island (Richardson 1984, Wanless et al. 2012), with human
exploitation representing another potential driver of decline on this island (Richardson 1984). It is very
unlikely to be exploited today (P. G. Ryan in litt. 1999, A. Bond in litt. 2016). The large population of
native Southern Skua Stercorarius antarcticus feed on seabirds, including P. incerta (Richardson 1984);
however, this is unlikely to be significant except in the situation that the population becomes greatly
depleted. Significant mortality of moulting adults, largely females, due to Hurricane Catarina indicates
that increased storm intensity and frequency is likely to cause unpredictable adult mortality. Night

© The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: Pterodroma incerta – published in 2019. 4
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strikes, as a result of being attracted to lights, are a further threat. This has been ameliorated at the
Gough Island meteorological station, but may still pose a problem on ships at sea (Glass and Ryan 2013).
It is, however, not thought to be causing significant declines in the population.

Conservation Actions (see Appendix for additional information)

Conservation Actions Underway

On Tristan da Cunha, a programme to eradicate cats was successful in the 1970s. However, searches on
Tristan da Cunha have failed to locate any birds (Wanless et al. 2007). Gough Island is a nature reserve
and World Heritage Site (Cooper and Ryan 1994). The first ever quantitative population survey was
undertaken on Gough Island in 2000/2001, together with research into the species's breeding ecology
and reproductive output (Cuthbert 2004, Cuthbert and Hilton 2004). Between 2003 and 2007, and again
between 2010 and 2014, further research on reproductive output and mouse predation was conducted
(Wanless et al. 2007, Cuthbert et al. 2013, Rexer-Huber et al. 2014, Dilley et al. 2015). Burrow density
and occupancy as well as breeding success are monitored annually on Gough Island (A. Bond in litt.)
Conservation Actions Proposed

Eradicate mice from Gough Island. Minimise the risk of further introduced species establishing on
Gough Island, particularly any rat Rattus species (P. G. Ryan in litt. 1999). Confirm the status of the
population on Tristan da Cunha and assess whether birds breed on Inaccessible Island. Measure
demographic rates on Gough Island to better understand population trends.

Credits
Assessor(s): BirdLife International

Reviewer(s): Smith, D.

Contributor(s): Bond, A., Bourgeois, K., Bugoni, L., Cuthbert, R., Hilton, G., Ryan, P.G. & Wanless,
R.

Facilitators(s) and Clay, R.P., Ekstrom, J., Fjagesund, T., Hermes, C., Martin, R., McClellan, R., Moreno,
Compiler(s): R., Shutes, S., Stattersfield, A., Stuart, A. & Temple, H.

© The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: Pterodroma incerta – published in 2019. 5
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Bibliography
Brooke, M. de L. 2004. Albatrosses and Petrels Across the World. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Bugoni, L.; Sander, M.; Costa, E. S. 2007. Effects of the first southern Atlantic hurricane on Atlantic
Petrels (Pterodroma incerta). Wilson Journal of Ornithology 119(4): 725-729.

Cooper, J.; Ryan, P. G. 1994. Management plan for the Gough Island Wildlife Reserve. Government of
Tristan da Cunha, Edinburgh, Tristan da Cunha.

Cuthbert, R. 2004. Breeding biology of the Atlantic Petrel, Pterodroma incerta, and a population
estimate of this and other burrowing petrels on Gough Island, South Atlantic Ocean. Emu 104 :
221–228.

Cuthbert, R.; Hilton, G. 2004. Introduced house mice Mus musculus: a significant predator of threatened
and endemic birds on Gough Island, South Atlantic Ocean? Biological Conservation 117: 483-489.

Cuthbert, R. J., Low, H., Lurling, J., Parker, G., Rexer-Huber, K., Sommer, E., Visser, P., Ryan, P.G. 2013. Low
burrow occupancy and breeding success of burrowing petrels at Gough Island: a consequence of mouse
predation. Bird Conservation International 23(2): 113-124.

Dilley, B. J.; Davies, D.; Bond, A. L.; Ryan, P. 2015. Effects of mouse predation on burrowing petrel chicks
at Gough Island. Antarctic Science 27(6): 543-553.

Enticott, J. W. 1991. Distribution of the Atlantic Petrel Pterodroma incerta at sea. Marine Ornithology 19:
49-60.

Glass, J. P., Ryan, P. G. 2013. Reduced seabird night strikes and mortality in the Tristan rock lobster
fishery. African Journal of Marine Science 35(4): 589-592.

IUCN. 2019. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2019-3. Available at: www.iucnredlist.org.
(Accessed: 10 December 2019).

Klages, N. T. W.; Cooper, J. 1997. Diet of the Atlantic Petrel Pterodroma incerta during breeding at South
Atlantic Gough Island. Marine Ornithology 25: 13-6.

Rexer-Huber, K., Parker, G. C., Ryan, P. G., Cuthbert, R. J. 2014. Burrow occupancy and population size in
the Atlantic Petrel Pterodroma incerta: a comparison of methods. Marine Ornithology 42: 137–141.

Richardson, M. E. 1984. Aspects of the ornithology of the Tristan da Cunha group and Gough Island,
1972-1974. Cormorant 12: 123-201.

Wanless, R. M.; Angel, A.; Cuthbert, R. J.; Hilton, G. M.; Ryan, P. G. 2007. Can predation by invasive mice
drive seabird extinctions? Biology Letters 3: 241-244.

Wanless, R. M., Angel, A., Cuthbert, R. J., Hilton, G. M., Ryan, P. G. 2012. Predation of Atlantic Petrel
chicks by house mice on Gough Island. Animal Conservation 15: 472–479.

Citation
BirdLife International. 2019. Pterodroma incerta. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2019:
e.T22698084A152715347. http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2019-3.RLTS.T22698084A152715347.en

Disclaimer

© The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: Pterodroma incerta – published in 2019. 6
http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2019-3.RLTS.T22698084A152715347.en
To make use of this information, please check the Terms of Use.

External Resources
For Images and External Links to Additional Information, please see the Red List website.

© The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: Pterodroma incerta – published in 2019. 7
http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2019-3.RLTS.T22698084A152715347.en
 Appendix

Habitats
(http://www.iucnredlist.org/technical-documents/classification-schemes)

Major
Habitat Season Suitability
Importance?

3. Shrubland -> 3.4. Shrubland - Temperate Breeding Suitable Yes

season

9. Marine Neritic -> 9.1. Marine Neritic - Pelagic Breeding Suitable Yes
season

9. Marine Neritic -> 9.1. Marine Neritic - Pelagic Non- Suitable Yes
breeding
season

10. Marine Oceanic -> 10.1. Marine Oceanic - Epipelagic (0-200m) Breeding Suitable Yes
season

10. Marine Oceanic -> 10.1. Marine Oceanic - Epipelagic (0-200m) Non- Suitable Yes
breeding
season

Threats
(http://www.iucnredlist.org/technical-documents/classification-schemes)

Threat Timing Scope Severity Impact Score

11. Climate change & severe weather -> 11.4. Storms Ongoing Minority (50%) Causing/could Low impact: 5
& flooding cause fluctuations

Stresses: 2. Species Stresses -> 2.1. Species mortality

5. Biological resource use -> 5.1. Hunting & trapping Past, Minority (50%) Rapid declines Past impact
terrestrial animals -> 5.1.1. Intentional use (species is unlikely to
return
the target)
Stresses: 2. Species Stresses -> 2.1. Species mortality

8. Invasive and other problematic species, genes & Ongoing Whole (>90%) Very rapid High impact: 9
diseases -> 8.1. Invasive non-native/alien declines

species/diseases -> 8.1.2. Named species (Mus

musculus)
Stresses: 2. Species Stresses -> 2.3. Indirect species effects ->
2.3.7. Reduced reproductive success

8. Invasive and other problematic species, genes & Ongoing Minority (50%) Negligible declines Low impact: 4
diseases -> 8.1. Invasive non-native/alien
species/diseases -> 8.1.2. Named species (Rattus
exulans)
Stresses: 2. Species Stresses -> 2.3. Indirect species effects ->
2.3.7. Reduced reproductive success

8. Invasive and other problematic species, genes & Ongoing Majority (50- Slow, significant Medium
diseases -> 8.2. Problematic native species/diseases 90%) declines impact: 6

-> 8.2.2. Named species (Catharacta antarctica)

Stresses: 2. Species Stresses -> 2.1. Species mortality

© The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: Pterodroma incerta – published in 2019. 8
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 9. Pollution -> 9.6. Excess energy -> 9.6.1. Light Ongoing Minority (50%) Negligible declines Low impact: 4
pollution
Stresses: 2. Species Stresses -> 2.1. Species mortality

Conservation Actions in Place

(http://www.iucnredlist.org/technical-documents/classification-schemes)

Conservation Actions in Place

In-Place Research, Monitoring and Planning

Action Recovery plan: No

Systematic monitoring scheme: Yes

In-Place Land/Water Protection and Management

Conservation sites identified: Yes, over entire range

Occur in at least one PA: Yes

Invasive species control or prevention: Yes

In-Place Species Management

Successfully reintroduced or introduced beningly: No

Subject to ex-situ conservation: No

In-Place Education

Subject to recent education and awareness programmes: No

Included in international legislation: No

Subject to any international management/trade controls: No

Conservation Actions Needed

(http://www.iucnredlist.org/technical-documents/classification-schemes)

Conservation Actions Needed

2. Land/water management -> 2.2. Invasive/problematic species control

Research Needed
(http://www.iucnredlist.org/technical-documents/classification-schemes)

Research Needed
1. Research -> 1.2. Population size, distribution & trends

Additional Data Fields

© The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: Pterodroma incerta – published in 2019. 9
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 Distribution
Estimated area of occupancy (AOO) (km²): 64

Continuing decline in area of occupancy (AOO): Unknown

Extreme fluctuations in area of occupancy (AOO): No

Estimated extent of occurrence (EOO) (km²): 23300000

Continuing decline in extent of occurrence (EOO): Unknown

Extreme fluctuations in extent of occurrence (EOO): No

Number of Locations: 2

Continuing decline in number of locations: Unknown

Extreme fluctuations in the number of locations: No

Lower elevation limit (m): 50

Upper elevation limit (m): 300

Population
Number of mature individuals: 1800000

Continuing decline of mature individuals: Yes

Extreme fluctuations: No

Population severely fragmented: No

No. of subpopulations: 2

Continuing decline in subpopulations: Unknown

Extreme fluctuations in subpopulations: No

All individuals in one subpopulation: No

No. of individuals in largest subpopulation: 99-100

Habitats and Ecology

Continuing decline in area, extent and/or quality of habitat: Unknown

Generation Length (years): 15.6

Movement patterns: Full Migrant

Congregatory: Congregatory (and dispersive)

© The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: Pterodroma incerta – published in 2019. 10
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The IUCN Red List Partnership

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species™ is produced and managed by the IUCN Global Species
Programme, the IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC) and The IUCN Red List Partnership.

The IUCN Red List Partners are: Arizona State University; BirdLife International; Botanic Gardens
Conservation International; Conservation International; NatureServe; Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew;
Sapienza University of Rome; Texas A&M University; and Zoological Society of London.

THE IUCN RED LIST OF THREATENED SPECIES™