Global Trends in The

Commodities Market
This is an extract of the full ‘Global Trends in Commodities Market’ report.

Not to be distributed without permission.

The data included in this document is accurate according to Passport, Euromonitor

International's market research database, at the time of publication: June 2022
Contents

Overview
Agriculture Commodities
Energy Commodities
Metals Commodities

Key Commodity Snapshots

© Euromonitor International
OVERVIEW 4

Scope
This report provides a global overview of trends in the key commodities markets from 2016 through to 2021 (data for prices range to 2023).
Insights into long-term global market trends can help businesses adapt to changes in the production and supply network, as well as identify
new business opportunities.
The report reviews key commodity sectors such as agriculture, energy and metals.
Global
commodities
market

Agriculture Energy Metals

Crops and Cereal Oil and Gas Iron and Steel

Non-Ferrous
Meat Products Fossil Fuel
Metals

Solar, Wind and

Textile Materials Precious Metals
Other

© Euromonitor International
Agriculture Commodities
 AGRICULTURE COMMODITIES 6

India continues to increase its role as global agricultural supplier

China remained the leading global supplier of key agricultural produce between 2016-2021; however, it registered a stagnating
performance in cereal output growth and contracting meat and poultry output over the review period. The African Swine Fever in 2018 and
2019 resulted in substantial losses in pig and swine herds, but the country is on its way to rebuilding the pig population.
The US registered a significant dip in cereal output over 2016-2021, yet remained the second largest producer. The decrease derived mainly
from shrinking wheat production, owing to falling yields and subsequently a shrinking area harvested.
India is a rapidly rising agricultural supplier, expanding its rice, wheat, and sugarcane output and dominating the global cotton lint
production. Its success is a result of increasing productivity, agricultural reforms and expanding irrigation access.

Top Suppliers of Cereals, 2016- Top Suppliers of Meat and Top Suppliers of Cotton Lint,
2021 Poultry, 2016-2021 2016-2021
China China India
US US US
India Brazil China
Russia Russia Brazil
Brazil Germany Pakistan

0 250,000 500,000 750,000 0 40,000 80,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

‘000 tonnes ‘000 tonnes ‘000 tonnes
2021 2016 2021 2016 2021 2016

© Euromonitor International
 AGRICULTURE COMMODITIES 7

Prices inflated by rising input costs and a growing supply and demand mismatch
Production shortfalls, surging input costs for energy and
Price Index of Selected Commodities, 2019-2023
fertilisers and trade disruptions are boosting agricultural
commodity prices in 2022. The most notable increases 250
registered in prices are of wheat and chicken. 225
Wheat price growth is a result of trade disruptions in Ukraine, 200
one of the key global wheat exporters. Rises in poultry prices are
a result of rising production costs, including animal feed, logistics 175

Jan 2019=100
and energy. In contrast, rice prices have remained fairly stable, 150
benefiting from steady production output growth in Asia and 125
overall solid global stocks.
100
Agricultural commodity prices are set to peak in mid-2022 and
75
then drop over the second half of the year and into 2023, as
recent production and trade disruptions ease. Nevertheless, the 50
forecasts are largely subject to a number of risks, including 25
adverse weather for crop and cereal harvests, prolonged conflict
in Ukraine and continued increases in input costs like fertilisers 0

May 2019

May 2020

May 2021

May 2023
Jan 2020

May 2022

Jan 2023
Jan 2019

Sep 2019

Sep 2020
Jan 2021

Sep 2021
Jan 2022

Sep 2022

Sep 2023
and energy products.

Cotton Chicken Rice Sugar Wheat

© Euromonitor International
Energy Commodities
 ENERGY COMMODITIES 9

US remains the top global energy supplier

The US remains the largest global supplier of crude oil and natural gas, continuing to benefit from large reserves and high drilling
productivity. The country increased its drilling operations during 2016-2019; however, the pandemic and record low prices in 2020
suppressed drilling activity from 2020-2021, with crude production failing to return to the record high pre-pandemic levels. Nevertheless,
the US Energy Information and Administration expects a full recovery by 2023, driven by high crude oil prices in 2022 and stable demand for
fuels, while natural gas production growth will continue to be driven by high export demand, as well as rising domestic consumption.
Global coal supply remains dominated by China, where mining activities continued to develop over 2016-2021. According to the
International Energy Agency, China’s power generation accounts for a third of global coal consumption. Despite coal’s role in pollution,
rapidly rising prices of other fossil fuels are set to boost demand for coal, as a less expensive energy source in developing economies.
Top Suppliers of Crude Oil and Top Suppliers of Natural Gas, Top Suppliers of Coal, Peat and
Natural Gas Liquids, 2016-2021 2016-2021 Oil Shale, 2016-2021
US US China
China Russia India
Russia China US
India Iran Russia
Saudi Arabia Canada Japan

0 500 1,000 0 500 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

Million tonnes of oil equivalent Million tonnes of oil equivalent Million tonnes of oil equivalent
2021 2016 2021 2016 2021 2016

© Euromonitor International
 ENERGY COMMODITIES 10

Prices see a sharp peak in mid-2022 but are set to fall in the medium term
Fuel prices had a steady growth in 2021, averaging above pre-
Price Index of Selected Commodities, 2019-2023
pandemic levels. The rebound in consumption has, however, led
to multi-year lows in crude oil inventories, while the Organization 700
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continued to limit
600
production output, maintaining the elevated price levels into
early 2022. 500

Jan 2019=100
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a further boost in crude oil 400
and natural gas prices, owing to concerns regarding oil supply
300
shortages and trade dislocations in light of Western sanctions
against Russia. The natural gas price in Europe was already 200
elevated during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2021-2022
100
and rose sharply in March, as EU leaders committed to slashing
imports from the bloc’s main supplier, Russia. While prices in 0
Europe are expected to gradually fall over the rest of 2022 and

May 2019

Jan 2020
May 2020

May 2021

May 2023
Jan 2023
Jan 2019

Sep 2019

Sep 2020
Jan 2021

Sep 2021
Jan 2022
May 2022
Sep 2022

Sep 2023
into 2023, natural gas will remain significantly more expensive
than in previous years.
Coal prices also rose in 2022, but it remained the cheapest heat
and electricity resource. Prices are set to see a steady decline in Coal Price Crude Oil, WTI
the short term. Natural Gas Price, Europe Natural Gas Price, Japan
Natural Gas Price, US

© Euromonitor International
Metals Commodities
 METALS COMMODITIES 12

China is a key supplier of steel and aluminium

China remains a key supplier of metals, accounting for 57% of the global supply of steel and 56% of global aluminium in 2021. Over the
review period, China increased its global share of the metals market. Rapidly growing domestic demand for metals, relatively low energy
costs and investment in metal production capacity expansion supported growth.
Buyers of metal products are forecast to diversify sourcing in order to make supply chains more resilient. Diversification efforts could
benefit countries such as the US, Canada, India and the Gulf States. However, it may prove difficult to replace China in the crude steel and
aluminium markets, given its large market share.
Increasing electric vehicle production is forecast to exacerbate the shortage of lithium. Limited reserves of lithium and long mining project
cycles make it difficult to increase supply, thus the leading lithium suppliers could further increase their market share.
Top Suppliers of Crude Steel, Top Suppliers of Aluminium Top Suppliers of Lithium 2016-
2016-2021 2016-2021 2021
China China Australia
India India Chile
Japan Russia Portugal
US Canada Zimbabwe
Russia UAE Argentina

0 700,000 1,400,000 0 20,000 40,000 0 250 500 750

‘000 tonnes ‘000 tonnes ‘000 tonnes
2021 2016 2021 2016 2021 2016
Source: Euromonitor International from US Geological Survey, British Geological Survey
© Euromonitor International
 METALS COMMODITIES 13

Slower economic growth to help cap the metal prices, but volatility remains high
Global prices of metals started to increase in 2021, as a result of the
Price Index of Selected Commodities, 2019-2023
post-pandemic economic recovery and the release of pent up
demand from manufacturing industries. Moreover, the disruptions 350
in supply chains and high consumer spending on manufactured 300
goods further increased demand for metals and contributed to the
250

Jan 2019=100
faster price increase.
Commodity markets, including metals, felt an additional price shock 200
in Q1 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both countries are 150
important suppliers of iron ore, steel and nickel. Supply disruptions, 100
as well as logistics problems, contributed to the sharp increase in
metal prices. 50
0
Global metal prices are forecast to stabilise in 2023, as alternative

May 2019

Jan 2020
May 2020

May 2021

May 2023
Jan 2023
Jan 2019

Jan 2021

Jan 2022
May 2022
Sep 2019

Sep 2020

Sep 2021

Sep 2022

Sep 2023
supplies from other countries are expected to increase. In addition,
the weak economic outlook is forecast to limit business and
consumer confidence, in turn slowing down growth in the
manufacturing and construction sectors. Weaker B2B demand for Copper Price
Aluminium Price
metals is also expected to cap price increases. However, the
ongoing war in Ukraine and transportation disruptions will continue Iron Ore Price Nickel Price
to cause volatility in the metal markets, which could result in Steel Price, China
temporary price shocks. Increasing production levels of electric
vehicles will also inflate prices of nickel and lithium. Source: Euromonitor International from World Bank, SteelBenchmarker

© Euromonitor International
Key Commodity Snapshots
 KEY COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS 15

Global production overview of wheat

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Leading Countries by Production,
PRODUCTION OUTPUT GROWTH Global Production Share by Region
2016/2021 ‘000 tonnes
763,783 0.4% China
‘000 tonnes, 2021 y-o-y growth, 2021 India
Russia
PERIOD GROWTH US
Canada
+2.1% France
% growth, 2016-2021 Pakistan
Global Production Growth Inner: 2016 0 50,000 100,000 150,000
Outer: 2021
40,000
2016 2021
30,000
20,000
Global Wheat Price 2016-2023
10,000
500
0 400

USD per tonne

-10,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
300
-20,000
200
-30,000 Asia Pacific Western Europe
-40,000 100
North America Latin America
-50,000 0
Middle East and Africa Eastern Europe

y-o-y change, '000 tonnes Australasia

© Euromonitor International
KEY COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS

Global production overview of rice

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT
SNAPSHOT Leading Countries by Production,
PRODUCTION OUTPUT GROWTH Global Production Share by Region
2016/2021 ‘000 tonnes
756,463 0.0% China
‘000 tonnes, 2021 y-o-y growth, 2021 India
Bangladesh
PERIOD GROWTH Indonesia
Vietnam
+3.1% Thailand
% growth, 2016-2021 Myanmar
Global Production Growth Inner: 2016 0 100,000 200,000
Outer: 2021
15,000
2016 2021

10,000 Global Rice Price 2016-2023

600
5,000
500

USD per tonne

0 400
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-5,000 300
Asia Pacific Western Europe 200
-10,000
North America Latin America
100
-15,000 0
Middle East and Africa Eastern Europe

y-o-y change, '000 tonnes Australasia

 KEY COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS 17

Global production overview of cotton lint

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Leading Countries by Production,
PRODUCTION OUTPUT GROWTH Global Production Share by Region
2016/2021 ‘000 tonnes
25,324 -0.5% India
‘000 tonnes, 2021 y-o-y growth, 2021 US
China
PERIOD GROWTH Brazil
Pakistan
+8.2% Turkey
% growth, 2016-2021 Uzbekistan
Global Production Growth Inner: 2016 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Outer: 2021
2,500
2016 2021

2,000
Global Cotton Price 2016-2023
1,500 120

US cents per pound

1,000 100
500 80
60
0
Asia Pacific Western Europe 40
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-500
North America Latin America 20
-1,000 Middle East and Africa Eastern Europe
0

y-o-y change, '000 tonnes Australasia

© Euromonitor International
 KEY COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS 18

Global production overview of crude oil and natural gas

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Leading Countries by Production,
PRODUCTION OUTPUT GROWTH Global Production Share by Region
2016/2021 million tonnes of oil equivalent
4,409 3.4% US
million tonnes of oil equivalent y-o-y growth, 2021 China
2021 Russia
India
PERIOD GROWTH Saudi Arabia
-2.2% South Korea
Japan
% growth, 2016-2021
Inner: 2016 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Global Production Growth
Outer: 2021
2016 2021
200
150
100 Crude Oil (WTI) Price 2016-2023
50 120
0 100

USD per barrel

-502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-100
80
-150 60
-200 Asia Pacific Western Europe 40
-250 20
-300 North America Latin America
-350 Middle East and Africa Eastern Europe
0

Australasia
y-o-y change, million tonnes of oil equivalent

© Euromonitor International
 KEY COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS 20

Global production overview of coal, peat and oil shale

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Leading Countries by Production,
PRODUCTION OUTPUT GROWTH Global Production Share by Region
2016/2021 million tonnes of oil equivalent
3,838 2.2% China
million tonnes of oil equivalent y-o-y growth, 2021 India
2021 US
Russia
PERIOD GROWTH Japan
+3.1% South Africa
Indonesia
% growth, 2016-2021
Inner: 2016 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Global Production Growth
Outer: 2021
2016 2021
100

50 Global Coal Price 2016-2023

200
0

USD per tonne

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
150
-50 100
Asia Pacific Western Europe 50
-100
North America Latin America
-150 0
Middle East and Africa Eastern Europe
Australasia
y-o-y change, million tonnes of oil equivalent

© Euromonitor International
 KEY COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS 21

Global production overview of crude steel

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Leading Countries by Production,
PRODUCTION OUTPUT GROWTH
Global Production Share by Region
2016/2021 ‘000 tonnes
1,951,663 5.0% China
‘000 tonnes, 2021 y-o-y growth, 2021 India
Japan
US
PERIOD GROWTH Russia
+19.9% South Korea
Germany
% growth, 2016-2021 Inner: 2016
Global Production Growth Outer: 2021 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000
2016 2021
120,000

100,000 Steel Price 2016-2023

2,000

USD per tonne

80,000
1,000
60,000

40,000 Asia Pacific Western Europe 0

North America Latin America
20,000
Middle East and Africa Eastern Europe
0 China USA Western Europe
Australasia
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
y-o-y change, '000 tonnes
Source: Euromonitor International from World Bank, US Geological Survey, British Geological Survey
© Euromonitor International
 KEY COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS 22

Global production overview of lithium

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Leading Countries by Production,
PRODUCTION OUTPUT GROWTH
Global Production Share by Region
2016/2021 ‘000 tonnes
877 2.6% Australia
‘000 tonnes, 2021 y-o-y growth, 2021 Chile
Portugal
Zimbabwe
PERIOD GROWTH Argentina
China
+20.4% Brazil
% growth, 2016-2021 Inner: 2016
Global Production Growth Outer: 2021 0 200 400 600 800
120
2016 2021
100
80
Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate
60 Price, 2017-2021
20,000
40

USD per tonne

20
15,000
0
Asia Pacific Western Europe 10,000
-202016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
North America Latin America 5,000
-40
Middle East and Africa Eastern Europe 0
-60
Australasia 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
y-o-y change, '000 tonnes
Source: Euromonitor International US Geological Survey, British Geological Survey
© Euromonitor International
 For further insight please contact

Justinas Liuima
Senior Consultant, Industrial
Justinas.Liuima@Euromonitor.com
• https://www.linkedin.com/in/justinas-liuima/
• @JLiuima

Dovile Misiunaite
Senior Analyst, E&C Insights
Dovile.Misiunaite@euromonitor.com

© Euromonitor International
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