ME C 443 Quality Control,

Assurance and Reliability

L-14
BITS Pilani Dr. Sachin Waigaonkar
K K Birla Goa Campus
Binomial Distribution

• A series of independent trials.

• Each trail results in success or failure.
• The probability of success on any trial is assumed
constant as p.
• Let x denote number of successes if n such trials are
conducted.
• Then probability of x successes is given by:
p(x)  n
C x p x (1  p ) n  x

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Example 2

• A company involved in making solar panels estimates

that 3% of its product is nonconforming. If a random
sample of 5 items is selected from the production
output, what is the probability that none are
nonconforming? That 2 are nonconforming? The cost of
rectifying a nonconforming panel is estimated to be $5.
For shipment of 1000 panels, what is the expected cost
of rectification?

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Poisson’s Distribution

• Used to model the number of events that happen within

a product unit, space or time period.
• It is assumed that events happen randomly and
independently.
• The Poisson variable is denoted by X. An observed
value of X is represented by x.
• The probability distribution of no. of events x is given by:

e
p( x)  x
x!
λ= Average no. of events that happen over a product, volume or time
period specified.

The mean and the variance of Poisson distribution are equal

and are given by:
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Ex. 5

It is estimated that the average number of surface defects in 20

m2 of paper produced by a process is 3. What is the probability of
finding no more than 2 defects in 40 m2 of paper through random
selection?

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Ex.6

A local hospital estimates that the number of patients admitted

daily to the emergency room has a Poisson probability
distribution with a mean of 4.0. What is the probability that on a
given day:
• Only 2 patients will be admitted?
• At most 6 patients will be admitted?
• No one will be admitted?
• What is the standard deviation of the number of patients?
• For each patient admitted, the expected daily operational
expenses to the hospital are $800.
• If the hospital wants to be 94.9% sure of meeting daily
expenses, how much money should it retain for operational
expenses daily?

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Poisson Distribution Table

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Thanks

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus