Decision Science

June 2022 Examination

Question 1. Three airlines serve a Srinagar. Airline ‘Amira’ has 50% of all the scheduled
flights, airline ‘Biyas’ has 30%, and airline ‘chinar’ has the remaining 20%. Their on-time
rates are 80%, 65%, and 40%, respectively.

Part 1). Draw the Probability tree diagram. (Note: You may use any software for this, like

MS paint, MS office, etc.)

Part 2). A plane has just left on time. What is the probability that it was airline ‘Amira’?
(10 Marks)

Ans 1.

Introduction
The tree diagram represents a probability space utilized in chance theory. A chain of separate
activities, or conditional chances, make up the probability tree diagram. When conditional
probability is used, unbiased occurrences can be something from a series of coin flips to drawing
a card from a deck without it being replaced. Every node on the probability tree diagram aids in
reflecting an event. This is linked to its probability. Due to the fact it is the most certain
incidence, the foundation node has a probability value of 1. Sibling nodes are included in the
image to help depict specific and exhaustive divisions. A decision tree is some other type of
statistical device. Like the probability tree diagram, a decision tree diagram is a tool that aids
within the decision-making process by highlighting the potential outcomes or event
consequences. It's a method that mathematicians use to create an algorithm that is made up of
conditional control statements.

Concept and analysis

Three airlines operate in the town of Srinagar. Among the three airlines is Amira airline, which
constitutes about 50% of all of the flights. It is observed by Biyas airline, which accounts for
30% of the flights, and Chinar airline, having the rest of the 20% of the flights running in the
city. The prices of the flights being on time are 80%, 65%, and 40% respectively.

Within the probability theory, the tree diagram helps represent a probability area. The possibility
tree diagram includes a chain of unbiased events or conditional chances. Independent events may
be that of a set of coin flips. While it is a conditional possibility, maybe that of drawing a card
from a deck without the card is changed. Each node present on the probability tree diagram
allows reflecting on an occasion related to the chance of the identical. The primary node always
has the opportunity cost of one because it's far the most certain event. The diagram also comes
with sibling nodes that assist in symbolizing distinctive and exhaustive walls. In regards to the
chance of a node, it reflects on the danger of the occasion to occur after the incidence of its
figure event. “The opportunity that the series of events main to a selected node will arise is the
same as that node's product and its parents’ probabilities.”

Yet any other aspect of statistical records comes inside the form of a selection tree.
Like the probability tree diagram, the decision tree diagram acts as a helping device for the
selection-making procedure. It enables to spotlight of the possible results or the dangerous
occasion results. Furthermore, it's miles a technique significantly used by mathematicians to
form a set of rules that includes conditional manipulated statements.

The opportunity diagram allows us to calculate the opportunity that was airline Amira. The
records interpreted from the opportunity tree diagram are as follows.

Event A helps to represent the scheduled flights for airline Amira.

Event B is a clear reflection of the scheduled flights for airline Biyas.

Event C reflects upon the remaining flights which belong to the airline Chinar.

The probability of the flights is:

P (Amira) = 0.50

P (Biyas) = 0.30

P (Chinar) = 0.20

When considering the posterior probabilities,

P (E|Amira)= 0.80

P (E|Biyas) = 0.65

P (|Chinar) = 0.40

Airline A has 50% of all the scheduled flights, airline B has 30%, and airline C has 20%. Their
on-time rates are 80%, 65%, and 40%, respectively.

Let us consider,

Event A represents scheduled flights for Airline A.

Event B represents scheduled flights for Airline B.

The occasion C represents scheduled flights for Airline C.

The occasion E represents that flight left in on time.

There is a need to locate the probability of the flight that left Srinagar to be of airline Amira.

It’s far because of the very same motive that one has to determine P (A|E)

Putting the values received from the posterior chance into the Bayes's law formulation, it
presents with,

By the definition of the conditional probability,

P(the flight is by A | the flight is on-time) =

P(A∣E) = P(E∣A)×P(A)

P (E∣B)×P(B)+P(E∣C)×P(C)P(E∣A)×P(A)

P ((A|E)= (0.80*0.50)/(0.80*0.50)+(0.65*0.30)+(0.40*0.20)= 0.59259

Hence, the flight that left Srinagar to belong to airline Amira stands at 0.5926.

= 59.26%.

The chance tree diagram is available when there's a need to calculate combined probabilities for
some events. The assist of the equal permits someone to map out the probabilities out of some
chances in a graphical shape. Such a technique facilitates to cast of complex chance formulas.
There can be instances where it can be difficult for someone to have a complex chance to
comprehend whether to multiply or upload probabilities. An opportunity tree diagram can make
the whole method drastically easier and assist in determining when there may be a need to add or
multiply.

Conclusion

When you need to calculate mixed probabilities for some of the events, the possibility tree
diagram is beneficial. It permits someone to map out the opportunities of many changes in a
graphical manner the usage of the same. This strategy removes the need for sophisticated
probability formulas. It might be difficult for someone who projects a complicated chance
calculation to know whether or not to multiply or add possibilities in some situations. A
probability tree diagram may make the whole procedure much less complicated. It can even
assist you in parenting out when you need to add or multiply numbers.

Question 2. Rashmi Dhar, manufacturer, and seller of ‘Kashmiri- kahwa’ through E-

commers websites. She wanted to know the effect of her spending in advertisement of
‘Kahwa’ on the sales, along with the other factors; ‘number of sales representatives’,
‘customer-satisfaction ratings’. For this research she has gathered the sales data in the
following table, along with other necessary information.

Part 1) Define dependent and independent variables

Part 2) Write regression model equation only.

Part 3) Run regression analysis in EXCEL (copy all those tables from EXCEL and paste
them in your document).

Part 4) Write the Interpretation of Regression statistics-table, ANOVA- table.

Write an interpretation (by referring P-value/ t-stat) on significant effect of independent

variables on sales.
 Region/ Sales of Spending in number of sales customer-
satisfaction
Districts Kahwa (in advertise (in INR) representatives
ratings
Kupwara 55328 5512 1 1
(1=highly
Badgam 56251 8337 1 1
Leh-ladakh 57126 8788 4 1
Kargil 58739 8828 5 1

Region/ Sales of Spending in number of sales customer-satisfaction

Districts Kahwa (in advertise (in INR) representatives ratings (1=highly
dissatisfied to 5 =
Punch 66984 9050 5 2
Rajouri 70676 10150 7 2
Kathua 73206 11236 8 2
Baramula 80571 12538 8 3
Bandipore 93168 13161 8 3
Srinagar 99432 13448 9 4

(10 Marks)

ANS.

Introduction
Variables are crucial in determining the features of various values, which might aid the
researcher in achieving definitive results. Values inclusive of top, temperature, and so forth can
be used as variables. Researchers were located manipulating the based and independent variables
so that you can establish correlations between or extra components of an observation. While
talking approximately a based variable, it's common to refer to it because of the supply of
trouble. The study's different variables, in large part, decide the importance of this type of
variable. Impartial variables, then again, reason and impact. It directly impacts the independent
variables. It could be challenging to inform the difference between independent and dependent
variables at times. It'd be challenging for someone to distinguish between a complex observation
and an academic book. On the subject of defining impartial variables, it’s essential to invite if the
variables are manipulated through the researcher or not.
Concept and analysis

When it comes to research work, variables play an essential function in deciding the traits of
various values, which could help the researcher pop out with exact conclusions. The variables
can be values including top, temperature, etcetera. It's often been discovered that researchers
generally tend to govern the based and impartial variables to establish relationships among more
significant factors of an observation. In terms of an established variable, its miles are frequently
referred to as the motive of a hassle. The price of this type of variable depends on the alternative
variables associated with the examination. On the other hand, impartial variables purpose and
effect. It has an immediate impact on the independent variables.

Concerning an independent variable, it could play a first-rate role in carrying out the
experimental examination to decide the number of consequences. Due to the very exact cause, it
is termed to be an independent variable. No other variables could have an impact on the impartial
variables. On some events, the independent variables are also referred to as explanatory
variables, which explain an event's effects or outcome. It finds excellent implementation in
statistics that estimate the quantity to which the independent variables would go directly to
exchange or cause adjustments in the based variables.
Dependent variables stand in exquisite contrast to one's independent variables. It is considered a
variable that causes an alternate due to the manipulation of independent variables. Within the
field of records, such variables are also known as response variables, as they're considered to be
a response to a positive trade in one of the different variables. It's miles the effects. They're
recorded because of modifications within the independent variables. Humans usually use such
variables to decide to what quantity the independent variable affects the dependent variables with
the assistance of statistical analysis. It is simplest based on the findings of a person that the
extent of the exchange can be recorded.

With regards to differentiating among independent and dependent variables, it can, on occasion,
be a tricky undertaking. Regarding a detailed examination or an academic paper, it'd be
challenging for a person to differentiate between them. Regarding figuring out independent
variables, one has to inquire approximately whether or not the variables are manipulated or no
longer by using the researcher.

The regression equation bureaucracy to be,

The P values are considered to be the coefficients inside a regression analysis. It works in
tandem to help develop a relationship about the model and is statistically essential to understand
the character of the relationships. Inside any statistical equation, there's a need to decide the
relationship among the impartial and based variables. The P values of the coefficients play a
significant role in examining how good-sized the relationships are from a statistical point of
view. After the regression model has been suited, it becomes necessary to check for the residual
plots to ensure that they may be fair estimates. After the estimates are determined, it is time to
interpret the statistical result. The linear regression analysis can give you some of the results that
the individual wishes to navigate thru.

Conclusion

In terms of an independent variable, it may have a vast influence in determining an expansion of

effects in an experimental investigation. It's far referred to as an independent variable for the
exact reason. There are not any extra variables that can impact the independent variables. In the
evaluation of impartial variables, established variables are alternatively specific. Its miles a
variable that produces a change while independent variables are manipulated. Such variables are
also called response variables in the field of facts because they are ideal for representing a
response to a change in another variable.
Question 3.

3a. According to one survey in India, 75% of Instagram users love REELS. Suppose that
25 Instagram users (randomly selected) have been approached in the university located in
vile parle. They have been asked about their status of like/ dislike the Instagram- REELS.

a) What is the probability that Exactly 15 of them would agree with the claim (or said they
love Insta-REELS)?

b) What is the probability that Exactly 20 of them would agree with the claim (or said they
love Insta-REELS)? (5 Marks)

ANS.

Introduction
Reels have enabled users to put up video segments of roughly 15 seconds in the application.
Along with reels, Instagram offers functions like memories and IGTV that have piqued humans’
interest. From the standpoint of a person, such features may be exploited to boom one’s
Instagram target market.

Concept and analysis

Instagram reels are the latest function provided to the customers of the social media platform. It
has taken the customers through typhoons. Reels have enabled the customers to post video clips
of approximately 15 seconds within the application. Alongside reels, Instagram has features
inclusive of tales and IGTV that have garnered lots of interest from some humans. You can make
the most out of such features to maximize your Instagram audiences from a user's perspective.
Such capabilities are supplied for each person to benefit, but it does no longer necessarily
suggest that they attempt their hands proper away. If the target market falls inside the right
demographic, it becomes critical for the customers to try their success and attain out to a more
number of loads. It is critical to recognize that developing exhibits may require a significant
amount of time and finances. But many of the people who are indulged in their works won't find
the proper quantity of budget to provide a positive type of content material.

The most significant gain of Instagram reels comes from early adopters enjoying a significant
quantity of exposure. Its miles no specific when it comes to Instagram. When it comes to
Facebook, the concern is usually located at the clients to apply the new features. Users in India
have said reels to have helped them obtain extra engagement with their audiences. Its miles
because of the equal motive that about 75% of Instagram users in India favor Instagram reels.

For 15 people out of 25 to love Instagram reels, the probability stands at,

P= 15/25= 0.6

For 20 of the 25 people to show appropriation for Instagram reels, the probability stands at,

P= 20/25= 0.8

Conclusion

If a user’s target market fits into the proper demographic, they need to attempt their luck and
reach out to a larger group of people. It’s essential to remember that growing reveals can take a
long time and cost various cash. However, many individuals immersed in their work won't have
the financial assets to produce a specific sort of cloth.

3b. ‘Bhartdarshan’ is an Internet-based travel agency wherein customers can see videos of
the cities they plan to visit. The number of hits daily is a normally distributed random
variable with a mean of 10,000 and a standard deviation of 2,400.

a. What is the probability of getting more than 12,000 hits?

b. What is the probability of getting fewer than 9,000 hits? (5 Marks)

ANS.

Introduction

Unprecedented steps were made to strengthen the infrastructure of hospitality due to the latest
advances in technology and era. The hospitality business has grown to be one of the most critical
industries in the international, propelling economies to new heights. Bharatdarshan presents its
clients with movies of the locations they wish to tour within the destiny.

Concept and analysis

There is a well-known pronouncing that the world is an ebook, and then those who do now not
go out traveling best undergo the pages. When it comes to the aspects of touring, time journey
variability performs a significant role in looking at the diverse possibilities of the available
public transit gadget. With the assistance of correctly modeling time tours, it is going on to
improve the passenger carrier and the efficiency of operations. It isn't simply the cease of the
tale. It can go a long way to have greater control over the automatic cars that extensively use the
latest technological traits. It not only facilitates providing a concept of the infrastructure of the
roads but also throws light on the factors of non-negligible live methods. The actual intention of
the complete process is to provide complete vehicle connectivity. With the latest advancements
in science and technology, great strides have been taken to improve the infrastructure of
hospitality. The enterprise of hospitality has become out to be one of the big industries that have
been pushing the finest of economies.

However, at the same time, it is vital to note that now not everybody can afford an extended tour
and travel. Monetary constraints and diverse differences as pets can kick in at any given factor in
time, limiting a person from traveling. It's miles due to the very identical motive that numerous
corporations have come ahead to project the concept of digital traveling. Bharatdarshan is one
such organization. They offer their customers movies of the locations they want to tour in the
future.

The probability for the organization to get more than 12000 hits lies at,

P= 0.91
The probability for the organization to get fewer hits than 9000 lies at,

P= 1-(9000/10000)

= 0.1

Conclusion

It’s essential to remember that not everyone can afford to go on an extended tour or travel.
Financial restraints and other elements like pets can restrict a person's capability to travel at any
time. Numerous groups have progressed to sell the idea of virtual traveling for an equal cause.
One such organization is Bharat darshan.