Weekly Report #1

Prepared by: Dennys Eduardo Mancheno C.

Date: January 4th 2021
The Ecuadorian political and electoral context
After the elections of 2017, Lenín Moreno, representative of the ruling party Alianza
País, was possessed as President of Ecuador. The disengagement between Moreno and
Rafael Correa happened from the beginning, because Moreno seeks alliances with
political organizations and groups far from correism. Later, this separation was
intensified by Moreno's criticism of the economic management of the State in Correa's
time, as well as criticism of the corruption cases in which Correa and his closest circle
have been involved, which has led to be sentenced for corruption cases. In this way,
Alianza País, the ruling political party, this party was divided between the followers of
Moreno and Correa, which affected the division of the National Assembly where the
party lost the majority. At the same time, the government sought alliances with
movements such as Rutptura de los 25, from which several ministers emerged and
became the current president's support party.
The current electoral context is established by a multiparty system with 16 candidates
for the presidency of the Republic. The16 candidates must be taken into consideration,
but there are three candidates for the presidency who present real options of reaching
a hypothetical second round of elections. In the first place, Andrés Arauz, candidate for
the Union for Hope, supported by the former President Rafael Correa. In recent days,
this candidate has been involved in controversies due to possible campaign financing
by the Colombian National Liberation Army. The second candidate with real options is
Guillermo Lasso, candidate for CREO, who participated in the 2013 elections losing in
the first round, and in 2017 losing in the second round. The third candidate is Yaku
Pérez, candidate for PACHAKUTIK which is the representative party of the indigenous
movement, a movement that gained relevance due to the manifestations of October
2019. Within this party there is conflict because the leaders of the indigenous
movement did not agree with the candidacy of Perez, the movement sought the
candidacy of Leonidas Iza or Jaime Vargas, representative figures of the
manifestations.
Three hypothetical scenarios are handled due to the numbers of the last days. A first
scenario in which there is a second round between Andres Arauz and Guillermo Lasso.
A second scenario, in which due to the voting that the 13 candidates with few options
have, Arauz achieves 40% of the vote, with a difference of 10 points from the second
candidate and manages to win in the first round. In third place, a second round
between Andrés Arauz and Yaku Perez or another candidate that emerges as an
outsider, the most optioned is Xavier Hervas.
Ecuadorian electoral law and CNE and Contentious Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
regulations
The legal regulation that governs the electoral function is the Organic Law on Elections
and Political Organizations of the Republic of Ecuador or better known as the Code of
Democracy. This Law establishes the operation of the electoral function, establishing
legal principles of the operation and financing of political parties and movements, the
way in which the electoral processes for the different national dignities will be
developed. It should be noted that in Ecuador voting is compulsory from 18 years of
age. It is optional for people over 16 years of age, older adults over 65 years of age and
migrants with more than 5 years of legal residence in the country. Due to the
pandemic, having covid 19 voting is not mandatory.
The electoral process of February 7, 2021 will be carried out under the latest
modifications of the Democracy code. On February 3, 2020, the 168 articles and 10
transitory articles that modify the Code of Democracy came into effect in the official
registry of the National Assembly. Among the main modifications are:
Candidate Seats allocation Greater Greater youth Control of
election form method representation presence in lists electoral
of women spending
It goes from the D'Hondt was For the 2025 From the 2021 All donations
open list established for elections, the elections, the made for
between the election of presidential lists for political
political parties provincial pairings must be provincial campaigns are
to the closed assembly made up of a assembly
bankrolled. All
and blocked list. members. The man and a members
incomeS from
It means, it is modifications woman. Half of should be made
not possible to established the the lists for up 25% of political
vote between use of Webster provincial young people, parties AND
lists, but only seeking a Assembly men or women. campaigns
for the political greater members must must be made
party and representation be led by half through
without altering of minority women. This deposits or
the order parties. will take place transfers in an
established in gradually, with account
the list. women at the
head of the lists
in 2021 at 15%,
30% in sectional
elections in
2023 and 50% in
2025.
The first two points are established based on obtaining a greater representation of
political parties in the assembly, especially in the change of the method of allocating
seats. However, there is a question whether combining Webster with closed and
blocked list favors representation. This represents an investigation after having the
official results comparing it with previous elections applying the same method of
allocating seats.
The electoral function, part of the five functions of the State in Ecuador, is made up of
two entities: The National Electoral Council (CNE) and the Contentious Electoral
Tribunal (TCE). The main function of the CNE is the organization and monitoring of the
electoral processes in all stages of the process. The TCE is in charge of imparting
electoral justice, having the capacity to establish electoral appeals against the CNE, as
well as to take charge of the legal affairs of political parties and movements.
The disputes that have occurred between these two institutions can be explained from
two points. In the first place, the unclear regulations that allow interpretation,
therefore, do not establish clear jurisdictions of the TCE and the CNE, allowing the
Court to intervene in electoral processes that would seem only the scope of the
Council. Second, the influence of political parties in both institutions. It is well known
that political organizations such as Alianza País, Revolución Ciudadana, Partido Social
Cristiano, CREO, have influence and are represented in the councilors of the CNE and
the TCE, which means that they are not independent organizations and that they do
not establish priorities according to the electoral conveniences of the country. The
solution to these disputes could be found in having a single electoral body that
complies with internal counterweights, establishing itself as an independent entity,
without external influences, with clear regulations that establish the principles by
which electoral processes are carried out in all their stages and through the counselors
legal disputes can be resolved.
Electoral observation mission findings
The OAS Electoral Observation Mission is the main mission that monitors the elections
in Ecuador. For 2017, among the various recommendations, the following stand out:
Greater confidence of the electoral bodies CNE and TCE with greater credibility of the
results due to apparent irregularities in the 2017 elections. This has not been carried
out due to the conflicts that have had between both organizations that have
questioned the elections of 2021. Another recommendation that was made was in
reference to the Transmission and dissemination of Results, in which there were
problems in the citizen consultation page and generated confusion and suspicions,
however, this has not been updated. One more recommendation was made regarding
the cleaning of the electoral roll, but this has not been fixed, leaving it in the hands of
the Ecuadorian Civil Registry with little observation and assistance from the CNE. A
relevant recommendation has to do with electoral spending, in which new control
mechanisms have been established, as well as greater flexibility regarding private
financing.
Civil society and the political participation of women, gender minorities, ethnic
minorities and indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, and other marginalized
communities within Ecuador and in international human rights frameworks
In the first instance, it should be noted the composition of the Plenary of the CNE and
the TCE. As for the CNE councilors, two are women, Diana Atamaint, who chairs the
plenary session of the CNE, and Esthela Acero. Both are representatives of the
indigenous movement. As for the TCE, within the plenary session Patricia Guaicha
Rivera is a main judge. Although the female contribution is important in both
institutions, it does not reach a parity.
Regarding the representation of the indigenous sector, it should be noted that they
have their own party that functions as the political arm of the indigenous movement
CONAIE. As mentioned previously, from the protests of 2019, this movement and party
take on relevance. However, due to political differences between PACHAKUTIK and
CONAIE, there is a division between the two due to the conflict of the leaders. On the
other hand, due to the relevance of the indigenous vote, most national political parties
have chosen to include indigenous people on their lists. Similarly, there are parties of
indigenous representation in sectors of high concentration of this population, such as
the case of MINGA in Chimborazo and the Indigenous and Peasant Movement of
Cotopaxi.
In reference of the presence of women in elections, this has occurred at the normative
level as in the presence on electoral lists. Among the changes to the Code of
Democracy, there is a 50% female participation in the 2025 elections. In the 2021
elections it is mandatory to have 15% of the presence of women, however, it is
estimated that approximately 38% of women are on electoral lists. Regarding
presidential elections, there is a female candidate for president, Ximena Peña for
Alianza País, and 9 candidates for vice-presidents. It should be noted that there is a
media lynching in elections directed at women through social networks that various
organizations such as Citizen Participation and the Institute of Democracy have stated
that there are no regulations that protect this social sector.
Civic and voter education practices in Ecuador, including active campaigns
Election education has been focused on three factors. In the first place, the CNE and
the political parties have made information campaigns on how to vote (closed and
blocked list) through social networks, while the CNE has also done so through the
media in several national chains. Second, the CNE has made campaigns to make people
aware of voting in the middlet of the pandemic with the necessary biosecurity
measures, as well as requesting the population to vote according to the last digit of the
identity card. This has occurred through social networks, the media, and since
February 2 through cell phone messages. Finally, political parties have focused in
recent days on raising awareness about going to vote and the danger of invalid voting.
Ecuadorian political parties, candidates, and campaign activities and Traditional and
social media frameworks related to electoral campaigns
Candidates Political Party Campaign Activities Traditional and social media frameworks
President/
Vice president
Andrés UNES Campaign through all Ecuador. Campaign based mainly on the image of Its campaign has been traditional with massive marches, as well as a
Arauz/Carlos former President Rafael Correa. Criticism of the Moreno government. strong investment in the campaign on social networks and YouTube.
Rabascall Return of 21st century socialism.
Guillermo CREO – Tours through Ecuador. Meetings with social movements and business His campaign has been traditional, but with caravans of cars trying to
Lasso/Alfredo Partido Social groups as well as with political figures. Criticism of the Correa government avoid crowds. Great investment in social networks and YouTube.
Borrero Cristiano and candidate Arauz. Commercial opening.
Yaku Pachakutik He has made bicycle caravans visiting rural populations with a high Traditional caravans carried out with the accompaniment of the
Perez/Virma indigenous concentration. Campaign based on the conservation of nature, indigenous population. He ventured into new social networks like Tik Tok
Cedeño the vindication of the indigenous people and on criticism of the Moreno to get the attention of the young vote. Investment in advertising on
and Correa governments. social networks.
Xavier Hervas/ Izquierda Campaign mainly through social networking, Hervas responds comments He is the candidate with the most presence on social networks. He has
María Sara Democrática personally. His campaign was based on presented as a businessman, not a made the caravans on electric scooters to demonstrate his
Jijón politician. He has presented himself as a candidate environmentally environmental awareness
conscious and has tried to impact young people
César PSE- Montufar's campaign has been linked to the fight against corruption and Montufar's campaign has been more reserved in terms of the use of
Montúfar/ Concertación the re-institutionalization of the State. He has attacked Arauz stating that social networks. He has been more linked to giving small rallies with his
Julio he is the candidate associated with corruption. In the same way, he has group of followers in the streets of the cities of Ecuador, especially Quito
Villacreses attacked Lasso linking with corruption cases.
Isidro AVANZA Isidro Romero's campaign has been mainly directed to the Coast of Romero's campaign has been more traditional, touring the streets of the
Romero/Sofía Ecuador. He has attacked Lasso by linking him to the Moreno government. cities of Ecuador. He has also had apparitions in social networks but has
Merino Among Romero's offerings are the industrial and agricultural reactivation been modest compared to other candidates.
and turning Ecuador into a financial center
Gustavo Democracia Si Larrea's campaign has been more traditional with caravans and presences His campaign has been mostly linked to interviews in traditional media.
Larrea/ in traditional media. Among his campaign offers are the economic He has not made greater use of social networks.
Alexandra reactivation and the reinstitutionalization of the State.
Peralta
Lucio Sociedad Gutierrez's campaign has focused on the remembrance of his time as Although his campaign has been traditional with caravans and appearing
Gutierrez/ Patriótica president and military, alluding to a national sentiment. He has traveled in traditional media, he has also made use of social networks by joining
David Norero the cities of the coast and the east with the military dress. His proposals Tik Tok seeking the young vote.
are based on commercial openness.
Ximena Peña/ Alianza País Peña's campaign has been managed through caravans through the cities of Her campaign has been managed in a traditional way by appearing in
Paticio Barriga Ecuador. Her campaign has been based on recognizing herself as the traditional media and also making active use of social networks.
representative of women. On the other hand, she has moved away from
the image of President Moreno.
Guillermo Suma Celi's campaign has been mainly focused on the use of social networks Celi has made little use of traditional campaigns focusing mostly on
Celi/Verónica using colloquial language. He has focused on separating himself from communication through social media.
Sevilla traditional politicians due to corruption cases and failure to keep promises.
Juan Fernando Construye Velasco's campaign has focused on the use of social networks, especially Although Velasco's campaign has been traditional due to caravans and
Velasco/Ana YouTube. He has held caravans and rallies in small towns in the center of media presence, it has focused on its presence on social networks,
Pesántez the country. He has attacked Arauz for corruption issues. He has focused especially YouTube, Twitter and Instagram.
on not being recognized as a politician. Among the proposals are economic
reactivation and employment.
Paúl Carrazco/ Juntos Carrasco's campaign has focused on visiting the south central area of the Carrasco has made modest use of social networks, his campaign has
Frank Vargas Podemos country. Among his proposals are the construction of hospitals and been traditional through the media.
economic reactivation through international cooperation.
Carlos Sagnay/ Fuerza His campaign has been modest due to problems within the party. He has Sagnay's appearances in the media have been scarce as well as the use
Narda Ortiz Ecuador made little use of social media. He has mobilized especially on the of social networks. She has visited neighborhoods on the coast of
Ecuadorian coast. His campaign focuses on promoting employment, the Ecuador.
fight against corruption and oil exploitation.
Pedro Amigo Freile's campaign has been modest due to not having a well-structured He has had little presence on social media. The media most used by
Freile/Byron party due to registration problems. He has focused on stating that he does Freile have been radio and television where he has given interviews.
Solis not belong to the traditional political class. His proposals are based on
economic reactivation and the fight against corruption.
Gerson Ecuatoriano Almeida's campaign has been recognized for its proximity to the pro-life, Almeida has had little presence on social media. He has held non-
Almeida/ Unido evangelical and conservative groups causing a rejection of the LGBTI traditional political rallies. Her presence in the media has been
Martha community. This campaign has been linked to a religious morality. moderate, generating rejection by LGBTI groups.
Villafuerte
Giovanny Unión His campaign has been excessively moderate on social networks and in He has not had a greater presence in social networks. He has not made
Andrade/ Ecuatoriana caravans. This is due to the fact that he plagiarized his government plan caravans. He has been featured in radio interviews.
Katherine and his resume, which led him to ask that his candidacy be withdrawn,
Mata which by law cannot happen.