Weekly Report #3

Prepared by: Dennys Eduardo Mancheno C.

Date: February 18th 2021
Political and electoral context
This week all eyes have turned directly to the CNE. On February 19, an agreement was
reached between the candidates Perez and Lasso, which established the recount of
100% of the acts in Guayas and 50% of the acts in 16 provinces. After this date, the
National Electoral Council has been delayed in making a decision regarding the date
and the process with which the recount will be carried out, generating unease in the
political movements involved and in the population. The CNE councilors met on
February 16 without reaching an agreement to establish parameters for the recount.
On the other hand, the inconveniences manifested between Lasso and Perez, after
having reached an agreement, have generated unease, especially in the indigenous
sector. The constant after the elections is a possible indigenous demonstration arguing
the defense of democracy. On February 15, the principal of the ECUARUNARI, Carlos
Sucuzhañay, announced that starting at midnight on February 15, indigenous people
would be mobilizing from Loja and Cuenca to the city of Quito to remain in anticipation
of the CNE's performance in the recount of votes. This mobilization follows the letter
sent by Lasso to the CNE in which he changes certain points in the agreement of
February 12.
Finally, regarding Arauz's campaign, both the Office of the Prosecutor and the
Comptroller's Office of Ecuador have begun investigations into the illicit financing of his
campaign. The prosecutor, Diana Salazar, met with the chief prosecutor of Colombia to
exchange information. In this meeting, the Colombian prosecutor delivered 50
documents of the investigation carried out regarding illicit financing, in addition, he
delivered a flash memory with evidence and a report from the computer expert in
charge of the case. The comptroller's office requested the collaboration of the
Prosecutor's Office to carry out its part regarding the case.
The role of CNE
This week was framed by the session and agreements reached between Lasso and
Perez under the protection of the CNE. The image of the CNE was affected in a good
way because it knew how to deal with the disagreements shown by Lasso and Perez, in
this way, it achieved credibility and stopped possible demonstrations. It should be
noted that the 5 directors were key participants in reaching the agreement.
However, due to the delay in making decisions regarding the process to carry out the
recount, discomfort was generated again. The five councilors of the CNE have not been
able to meet to establish the start date of the vote count. This session was originally
scheduled for February 13, but it was delayed until February 16, but an agreement was
not reached between the members of the plenary session and rejecting the agreement
established between Pérez and Lasso. It should be noted that the counselors showed
internal conflicts among themselves. In this sense, Verdesoto has expressed his
disagreement with the agreements and the president of the CNE, Councilor Acero,
requested a vacation at this time washing her hands regarding the current electoral
problem, and President Atamaint stated that because there is no agreement between
the parties to the finish the count, official results will be issued.
This delay gave way for the candidates to change the agreement, in turn, it gave way
for the indigenous sector to organize to mobilize. Also, President Moreno and the OAS
electoral observation mission expressed concern about the delay in making decisions
regarding the parameters of the recount due to the lack of legitimacy of the CNE and
the national welfare. It is also remarkable that the three main candidates who are
fighting for the presidency have stated that they do not trust the CNE, the councilors
and the electoral process. In the same, several candidates for assembly members have
met to request a recount of votes because they do not trust the CNE and the electoral
process.
Electoral observation mission findings
As for international observers, it should be noted that no reports have yet been
delivered, most are awaiting the development of the recount in order to proceed. One
body that has already delivered the preliminary report is UNIORE, this is not public at
the moment, however, the people of this body detail that the elections have taken
place normally but highlight the poor organization of the CNE to deliver results.
It should be noted that the electoral observation mission that stands out the most for
its activity in Ecuador is the OAS mission. This mission was essential for the dialogue
between Perez and Lasso to take place, keeping abreast of the parameters under
which the recount process will take place. However, the OAS mission has expressed
concern about the delay in establishing the parameters under which the recount will
be carried out, stating that this generates a loss of legitimacy for the CNE, urging that
the electoral body establish the steps to the process, transparency and certainty to the
political organizations, the protection of the electoral material and the fulfillment of
the electoral calendar on April 11.
Civil society and the political participation of women, gender minorities, ethnic
minorities and indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, and other marginalized
communities within Ecuador and in international human rights frameworks
Regarding the participation of civil society and minority groups, it is worth highlighting
the participation of the indigenous movement. Based on the changes in the agreement
manifested by Lasso and the delay of the CNE to establish parameters to carry out the
recount, the Ecuarunari and the Conaice expressed their disagreement with the CNE
and left the cities of Cuenca and Loja for Quito to protect democracy, because they
suspect electoral fraud. This greatly affects the credibility and image of the CNE,
something that the OAS electoral observation mission has been manifesting after the
elections.
Ecuadorian political parties, candidates and electoral Results
As for the candidates who have had relevance, these are Lasso and Pérez. Both
reached an agreement to carry out the vote recount already detailed above. However,
both took different positions after this event. As for Lasso, he asked that 100% of the
votes in Guayas be reviewed, but only 50% in Los Ríos, El Oro, Manabí and Esmeraldas,
in addition, that all candidates accept, the full custody of the votes by part of the
Armed Forces, in addition, that the CNE prove that it can carry out the recount.
On the other hand, Perez requests that a 100% recount of the votes be made in
provinces selected by Pachakutik. In addition, he requests the review of 13,566
minutes in which they consider there are irregularities. That is, no longer a random
count as had been established in the agreement. Neither of the two positions shown
by the candidates were discussed at the dialogue table on February 12. The CNE chose
to give official results after the vote counting was finished because there is no
agreement between Lasso and Pérez. Perez has asked the CNE to stop the count, to
give a full recount, and threatened to take legal action at the international level based
on rights of political participation. In addition, he noted that because he believes that
Lasso would reach the second round with fraud, he will not support Lasso in any way in
a second round.
Having been outside the CNE in the protests, two palpable results could be observed
among the population. The first places Lasso as the candidate who, together with
Arauz, is already in the second round. The second places Pérez as the legitimate
contender for Rafael Correa's candidate. Those who defend Lasso put forward the data
presented by the CNE. Those who support Pérez maintain that these figures are not
related to the will of the voters and that, therefore, it is a fraud. Although many
economists and political scientists repeat ad nauseam that "data kills story", in this
case and in many others, reality contradicts them. The CNE can affirm and reaffirm that
Lasso has come in second place and many sophisticated graphics can be offered to
account for this. However, what happens in reality is that more and more people
believe that such a statement by the CNE is false. It is not only those who voted for
Pérez who make up this group, but also those who supported Hervas and many of
those who identified with any of the remaining twelve stone guests
As for Arauz, he has lost visibility regarding his attempt to become president, but he
has gained visibility due to legal investigations related to his campaign. Investigations
have begun to determine the ELN's link to financing the Arauz campaign. The CNE has
not yet studied this case, but the electoral legal consequences can range from
canceling the candidacy and financial fines. The prosecution and comptroller's office
are already analyzing the case.
Campaigns
The campaigns are on hold until March 8. However, it should be noted that both Lasso
and Perez have gained visibility after elections. This is due to the fact that attention
was focused on waiting for who passes to the second round, in this way, the media
cover all movements and statements of both candidates. A common denominator that
both candidates promote is the fight in unity against Correismo, a manifesto that will
be used to seek unity by any candidate in the second round with more force than in
the first campaign, this in order to win the votes of the left and right wing.
It should be noted that after the February 8 elections a step was taken to analyze
Hervas' social media campaign. The Hervas campaign can be considered risky as it does
not know the reaction in the masses. However, despite the fact that many candidates
invested a lot in social networks, the difference of the Hervas campaign lies in the
response to written and live comments that people were making. This campaign can
be considered similar to a door-to-door campaign due to the proximity of the
candidate with the voter, the difference is that the number of voters that can be
contacted at the same time is greater and includes fewer operational resources.