“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

”
( Benjamin Disraeli, 1804 - 1881 )

Transportation Engineering
ENCV605015
Lecture Note 3. Introduction Statistics Method
for Transportation Engineering
Tim Dosen:
Andyka Kusuma, ST., MSc., PhD.
1
andyka.k@eng.ui.ac.id
Expected Learning Outcome
• Students must be able to apply
statistics theorem for determining
various aspects in transportation
engineering, particularly for
analyzing traffic variables
• Assessment:
• Mid term test: 10%
• Laboratory activity 2: 5%
• Learning experiences:
Students will accomplish a number
of survey activities and interpret as
well as presenting survey data,
calculate descriptive statistics of
those traffic parameters and carry
out hypothesis test of the traffic
performance.
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• Level of knowledge
• Develop problem statements and
solve well-defined fundamental civil
engineering problems by applying
appropriate techniques and tools.
(ASCE-8 /Cognitive 3/C3 and
Psychomotor 3/P3)
• Analyzed and solve well-defined
engineering problems in at least
four technical areas appropriate to
civil engineering (ASCE-14 / C4)
• Design a system or process to meet
desired needs within such realistic
constraints as economic,
environmental, social, political,
ethical, health and safety,
constructability, and sustainability.
(ASCE-9 / C5)
2
Introduction
Understanding of the Measurements
• Measurements are made on one of the
following scales:
1. Nominal classifications: e.g. bus, truck,
passenger car; or in the questioner such
as yes, no, don’t know, not applicable. In
particular, for binary or dichotomous
variables, there are only two categories:
male, female; dead, alive; or link
(segment) and node (junction).
2. Ordinal classifications in which there is
some natural order or ranking between
categories: e.g. young, middle aged, old;
or age groups: <5, 5-0, 10-14, 15-19 and
so on.
3. Continuous measurements where
observations may, at least in theory, fall
anywhere on a continuum: e.g. weight,
length, time, or speed measurements
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• Usually nominal and ordinal data are
recorded as the numbers of observations in
each category. These count or frequencies
are called discrete variables.
• For continuous data the individual
measurements are recorded.
• The term quantitative is often used for a
variable measured on a continuous scale and
the term qualitative for nominal and some-
times for ordinal measurements
In multivariate models, a qualitative,
explanatory variable is called a factor and its
categories are called the levels of a factors. A
quantitative explanatory variable is called
covariate
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Introduction
Understanding of the Measurements
• Presentation of the nominal,
ordinal and continuous data
must be carefully made when
using chart presentation.
• For example: line is more
proper for presenting the
continuous data and time
series data.
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• Two data are possible be gathered. First is time
series data and second is cross sectional data.
• A time series is a series of data points listed (or
graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time
series is a sequence taken at successive equally
spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of
discrete-time data. Examples of number of
accidents by sequence years
• Cross-sectional data, or a cross section of a
study population is a type of data collected by
observing many subjects (such as individuals,
firms, countries, or regions) at the same point
of time, or without regard to differences in
time.
4
Introduction
Summary of Scale Types

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Introduction
Component of Time Series

A time-dependent process may consist of four

components:
• Trend (Tr). This is long-term change in average
quantities, such as the growth of traffic over
time;
• Seasonal variation (Se). These result from
different levels of flow at different times of the
year;
• Cyclic variation (Cy). These result from cycles in
activity, and
• Random component (Ra). This may stem from
short term behavior or special events
The components may be summed to give an
overall effect, e.g. variable X(t) at time is given by:
X(t) = Tr(t) + Se(t) + Cy(t) + Ra

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 Introduction
Understanding of the measurements

• Example of using a line graph for showing

the roughness of roads along a 20 km road
• Example of using a pie chart: Percentage of segment. One of the roughness
Fatality by Modes in Municipality of Depok measurement methods is by means of IRI
in 2013 (439 deaths) (International roughness index).

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 Introduction
Understanding of the measurements

• Example of ordinal classification for age

group at fault in Indonesia between 2011
• Speed data for individual cars. Data usually and 2013. Presentation is using a bar chart
follows the normal distribution and
individual data presented by bar from the
lowest one on the left and the highest one
the right (It is also called a histogram). The
normal distribution as a continuous line can
be add as a proxy of the data.

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Introduction
Statistics descriptive

Example from 30 observation speed data

• Data (datum is only one observation or
point) can represent several descriptive
numbers. It is not a singular.
• For example: Speed data from the histogram
graph can be examined by: average or mean,
median, minimum, maximum and standard
deviation. Furthermore, it can represent the
85th percentile of speed which traffic
engineers believe is a proxy for installing
actual posted speed sign.
• If there a maximum speed limit
sign, others derivation data can
be established such as mean of
speed above the maximum
posted speed sign (mean of
speeding), etc.

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Introduction
85th percentile speed

• The maximum speed limits posted as the

result of a study should be based primarily
on the 85th percentile speed, when
adequate speed samples can be secured.
The 85th percentile speed is a value that is
used by many states and cities for
establishing regulatory speed zones.
• Speed checks should be made as quickly as
possible, but it is not necessary to check the
speed of every car. In many cases, traffic will
be much too heavy for the observer to
check all cars.
Homework:
Using the above data, could you make a
85th percentile graph? What is your
suggestion of the posted speed sign?

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 Introduction
Population and Sample
• Two very important terms in statistics are
population and sample
• POPULATION (defined in the statistical
sense) is the complete collection of items or
things that can be identified (i.e. events)
• SAMPLE is a portion or a subset of a
population
Statistical Experiment
• A contractor specifies the use of a certain street
lighting system which requires a certain bulb. A
manufacturer produces 10,000 LED bulbs as a
special order management of this firm wishes
to determine the average service life of the
bulbs. The average can be calculated by one of
two statistical experiments:
• POPULATION APPROACH - test all the light
bulbs, the average will be calculated with 100%
confidence
• SAMPLE APPROACH - take a representative
sample of the population. A representative
sample is one where all the light bulbs in the
production run have an equal chance of being
selected.
• If an average is calculated from a sample then
the question is how close is the sample average
to the true average (i.e .the population mean). -
the larger the representative sample the more
confidence we will have in the sample average
being close to the true average
Traffic Survey

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Traffic Survey

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Cross Tabulation

One Dimensional Table One Dimensional Table

Two Dimensional Table This means also • Two-way classification tables can be
cross sectional obtained by subdividing the stub. These are
studies sometimes referred as cross-tabulations
• Three-dimensional tables can be created by
subdividing the subdivision stub.

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Background of t-test

• The t-test is used to test hypotheses about means

when the population variance is unknown (the
usual case). Closely related to z, the unit normal.
• Developed by Gossett for the quality control of
beer.
• Comes in 3 varieties:
• Single sample, independent samples, and
dependent samples.
Background of t-test
What kind of t is it?

• Single sample t – we have only 1 group; want to

test against a hypothetical mean.
• Independent samples t – we have 2 means, 2
groups; no relation between groups, e.g., people
randomly assigned to a single group.
• Dependent t – we have two means. Either same
people in both groups, or people are related, e.g.,
husband-wife, left hand-right hand, hospital patient
and visitor.
Background of t-test
Degrees of Freedom
For the t distribution, degrees of freedom are always a
simple function of the sample size, e.g., (N-1).

One way of explaining df is that if we know the total or

mean, and all but one score, the last (N-1) score is not free to
vary. It is fixed by the other scores. 4+3+2+X = 10. X=1.
Background of t-test
Single-sample t-test
With a small sample size, we compute the same numbers
as we did for z, but we compare them to the t distribution
instead of the z distribution.
H 0 :   10; H1 :   10; s X  5; N  25
s 5 (11  10)
est . M  X  1 X  11  t  1
N 25 1

t (.05,24)  2.064 (c.f. z=1.96) 1<2.064, n.s.

X  tˆ M
Interval =
11  2.064(1)  [8.936, 13.064]
Interval is about 9 to 13 and contains 10, so n.s.