WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 16, NO.

2, PAGES 297-302, APRIL 1980

On the Definitionof Droughts

JOHNA. DRACUP,KIL $EONGLEE, AND EDWIN G. PAULSON,
JR.
School
ofEngineering
andApplied
Science,
University
ofCalifornia,
LosAngeles,
California
90024

In thispaper,
several
considerations
fordeveloping
a practical,
analytical
definitionof droughts
are
discussed.
Theseconsiderations
include
(1)selection
ofthenatureofthewaterdeficit
tobestudied(hy-
drological,
meteorological,
or agricultural);
(2) selection
of theaveraging
periodusedto discretize
a con-
tinuous
timeseries(months,seasons,or years);
(3) selectionof thetruncation
levelusedto separate
droughts
fromtheremainder of thetimeseries
(meanormedian); and(4) methodof regionalization
or
standardization.
Thesedecisionsarediscussed
interms oftheirimpactsonvariousapproaches todrought
frequency
analysis.
In thispaper,droughteventsareconsidered tobecomposed of duration,magnitude
(average
waterdeficiency),
andseverity
(cumulative waterdeficiency).An application
of theproposed
drought
definition
procedure
ispresented
forthecase
of a frequency
analysis
of multiyear
hydrologic
droughts.

INTRODUCTION (4) How are the regionalaspectsof droughtsto be consid-

An essentialfirst stepin a scientificanalysisis to clearly de- ered in the study?
fine and specifythe componentsof the problemunder investi- This paper deals with the implicationsof each of these
gation.This requiresisolatingthe problemfrom other associ- questionsas they relateto the issueof droughtdefinition.The
ated issuesand formulatingnonambiguousdefinitionsof the specificdecisionsmade by an analystwill be a function of his
important concepts.Certainly, the studyof droughteventsis point of view and the intent of his analysis.The choicesavail-
of no exception.It is obviouslynecessaryto decideexactly able are identified, and the impacts of various alternative
what is meant by the term 'drought' before any proposed droughtdefinitiondecisionson possibleanalysesto be per-
analysiscan be developedand utilized.In the currenthydro- formed are discussed.A drought definition is then selectedto
logic literature, devising a suitable universal definition of be utilizedin the frequencyanalysisfor multiyearhydrologic
droughteventshas proven to be an abstrusetask. Yevjevich droughts.
[1967]hasstatedthat the failure to developa succinctand ob- In this paper, droughtsare consideredto have three com-
jective definitionof droughtsis one of the principal obstacles ponents•duration, magnitude (average water deficiency),
to the effectiveinvestigationof theseevents. and severity(cumulativewater deficiency).The implications
In a broad sense,the problem of drought definition is of the definitionof droughtupon thesethreeparameterswill
be evaluated herein.
causedby the conflictingconceptsheld by a variety of aca-
demic fields of study. For example, the hydrologistis con- THE NATURE OF THE WATER DEFICIT
cernedwith droughtin the contextof a period of below nor-
mal streamflow and depleted reservoir storage; the The initial decisionwhichmustbe madein determininga
meteorologistis concernedwith droughtin the contextof a particular definition of droughtconcernsthe nature of the wa-
periodof belownormalrainfall or snowfall;the agriculturalist ter deficit,which will be of primary interestin the study.As
is concernedwith droughtin the contextof a period during previouslystated, this deficit may be related to streamflow,
which soil moistureis insufficientto supportcrops;and the precipitation,soil moisture,or any combinationof the three.
economistis concernedwith droughtin the contextof a pe- Althougha completeanalysisof a droughteventwould neces-
riod of low water supply which affectssociety'sproductive sarily include considerationof rainfall, runoff, and soil mois-
and consumptive activities. In addition, the concept of ture together,mostdroughtstudieshave focusedon only one
drought varies among regionsof differing climates.In Bali, aspectof the droughtphenomenon[Whipple,1966;Beardand
any period of 6 days or more without rain is considereda Kubik, 1972;Herbstet al., 1966;Guptaand Duckstein,1975].
drought,while in Libya, droughtsare only recognizedafter 2 Selectingthe nature of the water deficit to be studiedin turn
yearswithout rain [Hudsonand Hazen, 1964]. determinesthe generaldroughtdefinitionto be adopted.For
Although the precedingdrought conceptsdiffer in many example,the U.S. Weather Bureaudefinesdroughtas a
ways, they all require the analystto considera certain set of lack of rainfall so great and long continued as to affect in-
decisionsin order to accuratelydefinethe type of drought juriouslythe plantand animallife of a placeand to depletewater
event to be studied. This set of decisions consists of the follow- suppliesboth for domesticpurposesand for the operationof
power plants, especiallyin thoseregionswhere rainfall is nor-
ing:
mally sufficientfor suchpurposes[Havens,!954].
(1) Is the primary interestin precipitation(meteorologic
drought), streamflow (hydrologic drought), or soil moisture Similarly,a typicaltextbookdefinitionof hydrologic drought
(agricultural drought)? is given by Linsleyet al. [1975] as 'a period during which
(2) What is the fundamentalaveragingperiod of the time streamflows are inadequateto supplyestablished usesundera
seriesto be studied(e.g.,month,season,or year)? givenwater-management system.'Agriculturaldroughtsare
(3) How are droughteventsdistinguishedanalyticallyfrom usuallydescribedin termsof cropfailure from declinein soil
other events in the time series? moisture,without any referenceto streamflow.Therefore,it is
apparentthat droughtis generallydefinedasa watershortage
with referenceto a specifiedneedfor waterin a conceptual
Copyright¸ 1980by the AmericanGeophysical Union. supplyand demandrelationship.
Paper number 9W1439. 297
0043-1397/80/009W- 1439501.00
298 DRACUP ET AL: DROUGHTS

Clearly, the nature of the hydrologiccycleindicatesthat pe- riod which rendersthe data suitablefor analysis.Sampleaver-
riods of low rainfall, low runoff', and low soil moisture should aging periodsmay vary from 1 hour or less,for the analysisof
be intimately related. Precipitation is one of the inputs to a flood events,to one decadeor more, for the analysisof large-
watershed system (which is composedof geologicand geo- scaleclimatic changes.For the study of drought events,aver-
graphic components),and streamflowis one of the outputs; aging periodsvary from monthsto seasonsto years.
therefore, if one is interested in determining the cause of For example, droughts may be studied as periods of low
drought events,attention should be focusedon precipitation precipitationlastingan integer number of months,periodsof
drought(alongwith otheraspects of climateahd the water- low soil moisture lasting an integer number of growing sea-
shed system);if one is interestedin determining the effects sons,or periodsof low streamflowlastingan integer number
and impactsof drought events,attention shouldbe focusedon of years.The lower limit of 1 month is specifiedbecauseof the
streamflowdrought and agricultural drought. With these dis- distinction made in water resources between low flows and
tinctions, drought causesbecomethe province of the meteor- droughts.Low flows usually have durations of the order of
ologist while drought effectsbecomethe province of the hy- daily or weekly flows and, for analytical purposes,are consid-
drologist and agriculturalist.The problem of estimating the ered to occur instantaneously.Low flows are further distin-
frequency of drought occurrencefalls to both the meteor- guishedfrom droughtsin their samplingprocedure.Whereas
ologist and the hydrologist;neither has had much successin drought events are drawn from a continuoustime seriesof
this area to date. monthly, seasonal,or yearly data, only one low-flow event is
Because social scientists,politicians, and economists are selectedfrom an annual period of data (or, in the caseof a
concernedonly with the effectsand impactsof drought events, partial seriesanalysis,only thoseeventsexceedinga specified
their primary interestshould be with streamflow,water stor- basevalue).Examplesof low flowswhichexhibitthis sampling
age, and soil moisture deficits.The operatorsof supply man- procedureare the annual minimum daily streamflow and the
agement and demand managementmechanisms(e.g., reser- 7-day, 10-yr low flow.
voir storage allocation, importation, pricing, conservation, The selection of the averaging period for a particular
reclamation) focusattention on the outputsrather than the in- droughtstudyis dependentalmostentirely on the purposefor
puts of the hydrologiccycle and hencebenefit from advance- which the study is intended. However, the choiceof this time
ment in the understandingof droughtson the part of the hy- unit affects twoaspects of whatever analysisis performed.
drologist.Thus a drought event manifestsitself in the input, First, it determinesthe samplesizeof eventsto be studied.For
watershed system,and output componentsof the hydrologic a given length of hydrologicrecord, a shorteraveragingpe-
cycle. This suggeststwo approachesto drought analysis:(1) riod results in a larger number of drought events while a
analyze the stochasticstructureof each of the individual sys- longer averaging period results in a smaller number of
tem components,(2) analyze the interaction betweenthe three droughtevents.For example,the mean annual streamflowfor
componentsas one hydrologic system. a year may be below the long-term normal flow and thereby
The first approach has been more prevalent in practice for constitutea droughtyear,but it is verypossiblethat particular
the reasonsstated earlier. Examples of the secondapproach monthswithin that year will experienceabove-normalstream-
include the use of rainfall-runoff`simulationmodels[Crawford flow and thus separatethe singledrought year into several
and Linsley, 1966; Schermerhornand Kuehl, 1968], the use of month-baseddrought events.
precipitationdroughtfrequencyand a lumped geomorphicin- Todemonstrate theeffect of'the length ofthetimeseriesav'
dex to estimaterunoff`drought frequency[Huff and Changnon, eraging period on the sample size of drought events,Table 1
Jr., 1964], and the use of multiple regressiontechniquesto es- contains the number of drought events in three streamflow
timate low streamflows from climatic, geologic, and geo- recordsfrom the Central Valley region of California which re-
graphic indices [Thomas and Benson,1970; Paulson, 1978]. sulted from the use of monthly, seasonal(3 months), and
Each of thesemethodologiesmakesuseof the fact that precip- yearly averagingperiods. On the average,the use of annual
itation recordsgenerally cover a longer period of time and are streamflowdata yields about one sixth the drought eventsof
more complete than streamflow recordsfor the same region. those from monthly streamflowdata.
The two approaches to drought analysis are clearly inter- The size of the set of historical drought samplesis impor-
related. One must understand the nature of each individual tant in determiningthe type and accuracyof the analysisthat
drought componentbefore they can be combinedin a com- may be performed.The sample size must be large enough to
plete systemsanalysis. The results of these two stages of guaranteethat the samplestatistics(e.g., mean, variance,serial
drought study should be combinedso that a method of com- correlation, etc.) are reasonableapproximationsof the corre-
prehensivedrought analysis has been achieved. Thus even spondingpopulation parameters.When the averagingperiod
though the drought analyst may elect to focus attention on for droughteventsis setat 1 year, obtainingsuchan adequate
only one of the drought components,it is necessarythat he be samplesizepresentsa significantproblem.For instance,a typ-
aware of the ways in which that componentaffectsand is af- ical 40-yr streamflowrecord in California's Central Valley
fected by the other forms of drought manifestation. containsonly 10 multiyear drought events;estimatingpopu-
lation parametersfrom the samplestatisticsof sucha recordis
THE AVERAGING PERIOD
risky at best.Therefore, there is a distincttradeoffbetweenthe
After selecting the natureof the waterdeficitto be studied, need to study long-period drought events and the need to
the drought analyst must decide which unit of time or dura- maintain an adequatesamplesize which justifiesperforming
tion will be used as the averagingperiod for the meteorologic accurateanalyseson the available data.
or hydrologic variables under consideration.Becausethe im- The secondaspectof droughtanalysisaffectedby the selec-
portant variables are essentiallycontinuousin nature (with tion of an averagingperiod is the degree of correlation be-
the exceptionof precipitation),it is necessaryto discretizethe tween successive drought events.In general,a shorteraverag-
continuoustime seriesby employinga specifiedaveragingpc- ing period tends to result in greater serial correlationin the
 DRACUP ET AL: DROUGHTS 299

TABLE 1. Effect of AveragingPeriod on Drought SampleSize (SS) studyis intended),the droughtanalystshouldbe aware of the
and SeriesSerial Correlation (SC) for StreamflowRecordsin the consequences inherent in choosingone averagingperiod or
Central Valley of California another.
Averaging Period
THE TRUNCATION LEVEL
Stream I month 3 months I year
A nece,ssary componentof a completedrought definition is
SS SC SS SC SS SC
a specificationof the method by which drought eventswill be
Kings River 63 0.71 25 0.04 12 -0.07 abstractedfrom the remainder of the meteorologicor hydro-
Sacramento River 57 0.53 19 0.17 8 -0.02
Woods Creek 72 0.48 23 0.04 12 -0.07 logic time series.This componentis referred to here as the
truncation level, which serves to divide a time series into
All streamsselectedhave no upstreamdiversionor regulatedstor- 'above normal' and 'below normal' sections.
ages.
The concept and effect of the truncation level is most
clearly seen when the statisticaltheory of runs is adopted for
time series;thus monthly drought eventsusually exhibit more the analysis of the time series [Yevjevich, 1967]. The runs
serial correlationthan yearly ones.The use of longer time pe- methodologyis useful in analyzing a sequentialtime seriesof
riods apparentlysmoothsout short-termeffectsof natural car- stochastic or deterministic variables and hence is well suited
ryover storageand climatic stability which may have a sub- to the study of hydrologicand meteorologicevents.The fun-
stantial impact on droughts based on a shorter time period. damental parametersof the runs of an annual hydrologic se-
The impact of averagingperiod on serialcorrelationin hydro- ries are shown in Figure 1. The truncation value Xo can be set
logic recordsis shown for Central Valley streamsin Table 1. arbitrarily to cut the seriesat severalplaces,and its relation-
The presenceof serial correlationin a time seriescan cause ship to all other valuesof the X seriesis the basisfor defining
significant problems in carrying out a frequency analysis, the other runs parameters.These parametersare the run sum
since most such methods assume(either explicitly or implic- (cumulativedeviationfrom Xo), the run intensity(averagede-
itly) that the data to be studiedconstitutesa sampleof inde- viation from Xo), and the run length(distanceor time between
pendent events[Gumbel, 1958;Stall and Neill, 1961;Matalas, successivecrossesof Xo). In more common drought terminol-
1963;Dalrymple, 1960; Whipple,1966].There is no evidencein ogy, run sum is termed severity,run intensity is termed mag-
the literature that a proven method exists for performing nitude, and run length is termed duration. These three param-
drought frequencyanalysis,which accountsfor non-negligible etersare the fundamental descriptorsof drought events.They
serial correlation in the data. are related by the expressionS,• -- M,•.D,•.
Hence the averagingperiod used to identify the basic time In practice,the selectionof Xo is not arbitrary but rather is a
unit that describesa drought event has been shown to affect function of the type of water deficit being studied. For the
the data sample size and the time seriesserial correlation. A study of multiyear hydrologicdroughts,Xo may be selectedas
short averaging period (i.e., a month) results in a larger the mean annual runoff of a watershed;for the study of sea-
samplesize and larger serial correlation,while a long averag- sonalagriculturaldroughts,Xo may be selectedas the mean
ing period (i.e., 1 year) resultsin a smaller sample size and soil moisture presentduring the prime growing season.Theo-
smaller serial correlation. Although the selectionof the aver- retically, Xo may be a constant,a stochasticvariable, a de-
aging period is often made independently of these consid- terministic function, or any combination of these. For ex-
erations (the only criterion being the purposefor which the ample, to abstractonly the most severedroughtsfrom a time

DH
STREAMFLOW
IN
ft3/sec

SL

TIME IN YEARS

Fig. 1. Fundamentalparametersof the runsof a series.

300 DRACUP ET AL: DROUGHTS
series,it may be convenientto choosea truncation level such
as
where Xm is the seriesXo=
mean,
Xm-e.
So is the
So series standard devia-
tion, and e is an elective scalingfactor.
In general, the truncation level is chosento be some mea-
sure of the central tendencyof the drought sample;this results
in approximatelyhalf of the eventsbeing classifiedas 'high'
and half as 'low.' Statisticscommonly measuringthe central
tendency of a sample are mean, median, and mode. The me-
dian measuresthe minimum averagedeviation from the trun-
cation level. The mean, which is more sensitive to the extreme
values of the distribution, measuresthe minimum averagede-
viation squared.Virtually all hydrologic recordsare skewed,
meaning that the mean differs from the median and thus re-
quiring that the analyst choosebetweenthe two. The impor-
tance of skewhessin low-flow frequencyanalysishasbeen dis-
cussedby Matalas [1963].
By combining the notion of the truncation level with the
notion of the averagingperiod discussedin the previoussec-
tion, it is possibleto define four categoriesof hydrologic
events,basedupon whether they are above or below the trun-
cation level and whether they are of short or long averaging
period. These are shown schematicallyin Figure 2. The con-
ventional definitions are as follows: 'flood' is above Xo with
short averagingperiod, 'low flow' is below Xo with short aver-
aging period, 'high flow' is aboveXo with long averagingpe-
riod, and 'drought' is below Xo with long averagingperiod.
The lack of symmetryin theseconventionaldefinitionsis ob-
vious and is an unfortunate aspectof the developmentof wa-
ter resourceterminology.
It remains then to assessthe advantagesin using the mean
or median as the truncation level to distinguishdroughtsfrom
the rest of the time series.Utilizing a median truncation level
yields an identical number of drought and high-flow time pe-
riods. This occursif the record length is adjusted so that it
contains only complete cycles of drought and high-flow
events;this new record length can be called the effective rec-
ord length. If the time seriesis divided suchthat the number
of drought and high-flow periodsis the same,then the mean
duration of both droughts and high flows must also be the
same. This situation would simplify the comparisonof dura-
tion analysesof thesetwo types of events.
Truncation
Level
FLOOD
Me an
or
Median
LOW FLOW
Days
Fig. 2. Classificationof hydrologicevents.
Similarly, using a mean truncationlevel yields the sameto-
tal deviation from Xo for drought and high-flow eventswhen
the effectiverecordlength is used.As a result,both droughts
and high flowswill have the samemean severities.Thus using
themeanf•r Xowouldaidin thecomparison
of drought
se-
verity analyses.
Hence certain advantagesof standardization may be real-
ized by using the series median as the truncation level for
drought duration analysesand the seriesmean as the trunca-
tion level for drought severityanalyses.However, a complete
droughtanalysisis concernedwith both duration and severity,
but in studyingboth simultaneously,it is not practical to use
two different truncation levels, since each will result in the
identificationof a different setof drought events.Fortunately,
this problem can be avoidedby taking advantageof the right-
skewnessof most hydrologicrecords.In this case,a logarith-
mic transformation can be utilized to normalize the time se-
ries, thereby bringing the mean and median of the trans-
formed series closer together. Since these two measuresof
central tendency will usually not be identical, even after the
logarithmic transformation,it is considereddesirableto use a
mean truncation level, since the mean is more sensitive to the
extreme values of the distribution. In the study of drought
events,theseextremedroughtsare generallyof primary inter-
est.
In using the mean of a historicalseries,however, one must
be cautiousof grosslyunrepresentativeeventsincluded in the
sample,particularly if the samplesize is small. For example,
the worst drought in a 30-yr recordmay actually have a recur-
rence interval of 100 years when viewed in the context of the
entire population of events.Becausethe mean is more sensi-
tive to extreme values, it will be unfairly biased in favor of
thesevaluesif they are not representativeof the population
distributionwith respectto the availablesamplesize.Thus to
usethe mean of a seriesas the truncationlevel, it is preferable
that the historical sample be free of unrepresentativelyex-
treme drought events.
THE REGIONALIZATION APPROACH
In arriving at a concisedrought definition for use in an
analysis,it is necessaryto stipulatethe approachto regional-
ization that is being employed. There are three fundamental
choices available:
(1) Do not regionalizethe analysis.Restrictattentionto the
HIGH FLOW
I
DROUGHT
Months Years Averaging
Period
 DRACUP ET AL: DROUGHTS 301

drought record of only one stream gage, rain gage, or soil mate and geomorphology,in addition to geographicalprox-
moisture gage. imity, is recommendedrather than the standardizationap-
(2) Define a regionaccordingto similar climaticinput, simi- proach.
lar geomorphiccharacteristics, and geographicproximity.
DISCUSSION
(3) Define a region accordingto similar statisticsof the hy-
drologic or meteorologicrecords,regardlessof the location of In order to investigatemethods of performing frequency
these records. analysisof droughtevents,the followingstepsare required,in
The first regionalizationoption, actually the no-regional- order to define and selectthe type of drought event to be stud-
ization option, is not generally feasible in application to ied.
drought analysesfor two reasons.First, droughts are inher- First, attention shouldbe focusedon droughtsas they most
ently regionalin nature, and thus their areal extent is an im- directly affect man's activities. This means being concerned
portant characteristicto be considered. Second, the small with water supply,water quality, hydroelectricpower genera-
samplesizeof drought eventsis often a limiting factor in their tion, water-based recreation, and irrigation. All of these
analysis,and regionalizationprovidesa meansfor increasing classesof water utilization are directly affectedby streamflow,
this sample size. either in itself or as it contributesto reservoirstorage.Empha-
In selectingbetween the remaining two regionalizational- sis is on the effects and impacts rather than the causes of
ternatives,it is useful to recall the input-system-outputmodel drought events.Meteorologicand agriculturaldrought would
of droughtclassificationdiscussedearlier. 'Input' refersto pre-be consideredonly insofar as they affect hydrologicdrought
cipitation and meteorologicdroughts: a regionalization ap- through the processesof the hydrologiccycle.
proach for the study of theseeventsshouldinvolvegrouping Next, it is necessaryto selectthe averaging period used to
recordsaccordingto homogeneityof climate and weather pat- define the drought events.Proper operation and management
terns.'System'refersto the watersheditself and agriculturalor of water resourceprojectsis able to mitigate most water defi-
soil moisture droughts; a regionalization approach for the cienciesoccurringover short time periods.Therefore, stream-
study of theseeventsshouldinvolve groupingrecordsaccord- flow drought lastingat least 1 year and an annual averaging
ing to homogeneityof geologyand geography.'Output' refers period should be selected. Another important reason for
to streamflow and hydrologic droughts;one regionalization choosingthis averagingperiod is that lessattention has been
approachfor the studyof theseeventsinvolvesgroupingrec- given to the frequency analysis of these extreme extended
ords according to homogeneity of climate and geomorphol- drought eventsthan to other hydrologicphenomena[Whipple,
ogy. This is basedupon the assumptionthat if input and sys- 1966]. Selectingthis long averagingperiod means something
tem componentsare homogeneous,the output component will have to be done to increasethe drought sample size, but
should be homogeneousas well. These three regionalization serial correlation is not expectedto be detrimental to the fre-
approachesare straightforwardin theory but often difficult to quency analysis.
apply in practice[Langbein,1947:Dalrymple,1960]. Choosing mean annual runoff as the truncation level has
The third alternativein regionalizationis perhapsmore cor- certain advantagesto this kind of analysis.First, it standard-
rectly termed standardization.It would allow droughtrecords izes the severitiesof high and drought flows, and severity is
to be grouped solely on the basisof certain selectedstatistics,perhaps the most important drought characteristicaffecting
without stipulatingthat the recordsbe associatedwith coter- water resourcesprojects. Second, the mean attributes more
minousareas.This approachis mostapplicableto an analysis significanceto the extremesof the droughtdistribution,and it
of streamflowdrought,sincethe regionalization(or standard- is these extreme eventswith which the frequency analysisis
ization) procedurewould be basedonly on characteristicsof most concerned. Thus average annual streamflow should be
the hydrologicseriesand not on factorsof climate and geo- selected as the truncation level.
morphology,which more directly influenceprecipitationand Becausethe long averagingperiod selectedrendersuse of a
soil moisturedrought.This methodof groupingrecordsmay single streamflow record infeasible, from the standpoint of
yield more accurateresultsthan conventionalregionalization drought samplesize,somemethod of regionalizationmust be
methods,althoughfurther studyis requiredto determinethe employed.The type of regionalizationdependsupon the par-
optimal recordstatisticsto be usedas the standardizingpa- ticular method of frequency analysisused. A multiple-regres-
rameters.The problem with the standardizationapproachis sion approachcan be utilized to estimateparametersof multi-
that while it aids in alleviatingproblemsassociatedwith small year drought frequency from climatic and geomorphic
drought samplesizes,it fails to accountfor the areal extent of characteristics[Paulson,1978]. In this study, the conventional
droughtevents.In thisrespect,standardization is moreappro- method of regionalization,which combinesrecordsof adja-
priately usedin the study of floodsand low flowsrather than cent streams,was used in order to preserveclimatic and geo-
droughts.Nonetheless,if standardizationis utilized in lieu of morphic homogeneity.On the other hand, any analysisof the
a conventionalregionalizationapproachfor droughtanalysis, stochasticcharacteristicsof drought severity, magnitude, and
then somemethodmustbe developedto incorporatethe char- duration may benefit from a standardizationapproachrather
acteristicof areal extent in the analysis. than regionalization.Thus both methodsof regionalizingthe
When precipitation,soil moisture,and streamflowdrought analysisappear to be applicableto drought analysis.
are to be studiedas a completesystem,or when one type of
CONCLUSION
droughtis to be inferred or estimatedfrom the others[e.g.,
Huff and Changnon,Jr., 1964;Thomasand Benson,1970],the The problem of developing a unique definition of the
homogeneousregionscorrespondingto the three classesof drought event has plagued the field of water resourcesfor
droughteventsshouldoverlapas much as possible.This al- many years, Unfortunately, the variety of existing drought
lowsfor legitimatecomparison amongdroughtsoccurringin conceptsmakesthe attainmentof sucha unique definition vir-
the threeprincipalcomponents of the hydrologiccycle.Thus, tually impossible,and thus the drought analyst is required at
in this case,regionalizationin termsof homogeneityof cli- the outset of a project to clearly specifythe particular type of
302 DRACUP ET AL: DROUGHTS
drought to be studied.This paper has suggesteda systematic
approachto drought definition, incorporatingthe use of the
theory of runs,which requiresthe analystto selectthe nature
of the water deficit to be studied,the averagingperiod usedto
discretizethe raw data, the truncationlevel usedto distinguish
droughtsfrom other events,and the regionalizationapproach.
A number of possiblealternativesrelating to each of these
four decisionshave been discussed,including precipitation,
soil moisture, and streamflow water deficits; monthly, sea-
sonal, and annual averagingperiods;mean and median trun-
cation levels; conventional geographic regionalization; and
statisticalstandardization.The implicationsof selectingpar-
ticular componentsof the drought definition have been pre-
sented,as well as a brief descriptionof the applicationof this
drought definition procedure to multiyear hydrologic
droughts.
It has been shown that theseaspectsof drought definition
affect samplesize;serialcorrelation;droughtseverity,magni-
tude, and duration; and the degree to which areal extent is
consideredin the analysis.
This systematicapproachfor developinga clear and concise
drought definition, including an awarenessof the advantages
and disadvantagesof a particular definition to a proposed
analysis,is recommendedfor use by meteorologistsand hy-
drologists as a tool for focusing attention on the precise
drought conceptwith which they are concerned.
NOTATION
Dn duration of high flow.
D,• duration of low flow.
e electivescalingfactor.
Mn magnitude of high flow.
M,• magnitude of low flow.
Sn severity of high flow.
S,• severityof low flow.
SC serial correlation.
SS sample size.
St, standard deviation of a time series.
X value of a time series.
X,• mean of a time series.
Xo truncation level of a time series.
Acknowledgment. This report is basedupon work supportedby
the National ScienceFoundationunder grant ENG 7711137.
Any opinions,findings,and conclusionsor recommendationsex-
pressedin this publicationare thoseof the author(s)and do not
necessarilyreflect the viewsof the National ScienceFoundation.
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(Received February 19, 1979;
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