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Renewable Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene
Renewable energy and CO2 emissions: New evidence with the panel
threshold model
Chaoyi Chen a, b, Mehmet Pinar c, d, *, Thanasis Stengos e
a
MNB Institute, John von Neumann University, Budapest, 1117, Hungary
b
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), Budapest, 1013, Hungary
c
Business School, Edge Hill University, Ormskirk, Lancashire, L39 4QP, UK
d
Departamento de Ana lisis Econo
mico y Economía Política, Universidad de Sevilla, Avda. Ramo
n y Cajal, 1, 41018, Sevilla, Spain
e
Department of Economics and Finance, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: The increased concerns over climate change led to a large body of literature that examined the impact of
Received 21 April 2021 energy and economic growth on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita. The majority of the existing
Received in revised form studies employed various linear panel estimation techniques ignoring the potential nonlinear effects of
18 March 2022
energy and income on CO2 emissions per capita. To fill this gap, this study uses panel data consisting of
Accepted 16 May 2022
Available online 22 May 2022
97 countries between 1995 and 2015 and examines the nonlinear impact of renewable, non-renewable
energy consumption, economic growth on CO2 emissions per capita by using a dynamic panel threshold
model that is robust to cross-section dependence. Our findings indicate the effect of growth in renewable
JEL classification:
C24
energy consumption per capita on the growth of CO2 emissions per capita is negative and significant if
O13 countries surpass a certain threshold of renewable energy consumption. This finding mainly holds for
Q2 developed countries and countries with stronger institutions and is robust to the use of an alternative
Q43 proxy for renewable energy consumption. Our findings highlight the fact that increased renewable en-
ergy consumption would only reduce CO2 emissions per capita if and only if countries surpass a certain
Keywords:
threshold of renewable energy consumption.
Carbon dioxide emissions
Renewable energy
© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
Non-renewable energy (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Economic growth
Environmental kuznets curve
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.095
0960-1481/© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
C. Chen, M. Pinar and T. Stengos Renewable Energy 194 (2022) 117e128
between CO2 emissions per capita and GDP per capita (e.g., CO2 emissions. The model introduced by Ref. [30] was recently
Refs. [4,13e15]; among many others). On the other hand, some used by Ref. [31] to examine the nonlinear relationship between
studies have found no support for the EKC hypothesis [9,16], while renewable energy consumption and economic growth. Our paper
there is also support for an N-shaped relationship between CO2 would also use the model proposed by Ref. [31]; since other
emissions per capita and GDP per capita (e.g., see e.g., Ajmi et al., threshold models proposed by Refs. [32e35] either rely on exoge-
2015; Allard et al., 2018 [17]; Balsalobre-Lorente, 2018; [18,19]. The nous threshold variables or are not applicable in the context of a
latter literature argues that there is a second turning point where the dynamic panel model. Secondly, most of the existing studies have
CO2 emissions per capita begin to increase again when rich countries not controlled for the dynamic nature of CO2 emissions, which we
reach a second income level. do in this paper with the use of dynamic threshold panel estimation
Most of these above-mentioned studies use different method- methods. Finally, most of the existing literature used first-
ologies and data sets to investigate the impact of renewable energy generation unit root tests, ignoring the cross-sectional depen-
consumption, non-renewable energy consumption and GDP per dence. In this paper, we use second-generation unit root tests after
capita on CO2 emissions per capita (see section 2 for a more testing for cross-sectional dependence. These unit root results
detailed account of the literature), relying on a linear relationship determine the choice of variables to be used in the dynamic panel
among these factors. In this paper, using recently developed panel threshold models.
threshold models, we examine the potential nonlinear effects of The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2
non-renewable energy consumption, renewable energy consump- provides a literature review on the determinants of CO2 emis-
tion and GDP per capita on CO2 emissions with panel data con- sions. Section 3 provides the details of the empirical estimation
sisting of 97 countries covering the period between 1995 and 2015. methods used. Section 4 offers the details of the data used in this
We find that renewable energy consumption is negatively associ- study. Finally, section 5 presents the cross-sectional dependence
ated with CO2 emissions per capita growth only for countries that and panel unit root tests, alongside the dynamic linear and
surpass a certain threshold of renewable energy consumption. In threshold estimation results, and robustness analysis. Finally, sec-
other words, countries that exceed a certain point of renewable tion 6 concludes and provides policy recommendations.
energy consumption are the only ones that benefit from decreased
CO2 emissions per capita when their renewable energy consump- 2. Literature review
tion increases.
There are theoretical reasons for a nonlinear relationship be- There is extensive literature examining the impact of non-
tween renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions per renewable energy consumption (NREC), renewable energy con-
capita. The initial investment in renewable energy requires a sig- sumption (REC) and income per capita on CO2 emissions. The
nificant up-front investment (see e.g. Refs. [20,21], and the cost of findings of these studies show variation based on the methodology
the renewable energy consumption is relatively higher than those and sample period used. Table 1 provides a summary of some of the
of non-renewable energy [22]. On the other hand, renewable en- studies in this area.
ergy storage capacity is relatively lower than non-renewable en- Most of the existing literature found support for the inverted U-
ergy and leads to energy supply problems in peak energy demand shaped EKC hypothesis (e.g., Ref. [13]; Bilgili, 2016;
periods [23,24]. For instance, analyzing 19 developed and devel- [2,4,5,8,14,15,18,29,46,48,52,54]. Also in a related paper, Ulucak and
oping countries for 1984e2007 [25], found that renewable energy Bilgili [51] found an inverted U-shaped between economic devel-
consumption does not reduce CO2 emissions. However, there have opment and ecological footprint using ecological footprint as an in-
been improvements in renewable energy consumption technolo- dicator of environmental deterioration. However, there is also
gies in recent years [26]. Furthermore, the cost of renewable energy literature that found no support for EKC (e.g., Refs. [9,16,47,50,52,55].
consumption has been declining over the past years [27] and Some studies provided some explanation for the mixed set of results.
renewable energy technologies experienced significant improve- For instance, while conducting panel data estimation, Churchill et al.
ments with increased research and development (R&D) in- [18] found support for the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis, yet the
vestments [28]. Therefore, even though high investment costs and results for country-specific analysis provided mixed results sug-
storage problems may lead to a non-significant effect of renewable gesting that the sample choice could be a factor for such variation in
energy consumption on CO2 emissions when countries use lower the findings. Wang et al. [53] examined the effect of GDP per capita
renewable energy consumption, we expect that with the increased on CO2 emissions based on the development level of the country
investment and improvements in renewable energy technologies, using different samples of countries based on their income classifi-
renewable energy consumption is a significant factor in reducing cation and found that the results varied accordingly. In this paper, we
CO2 emissions if countries surpass a certain threshold of renewable will explore potential nonlinear effects of different determinants of
energy consumption. CO2 emissions on CO2 emissions using the dynamic threshold panel
Our paper contributes to the literature in various ways. Firstly, method. The dynamic threshold model would enable us to examine
most of the existing studies on EKC used a quadratic term of GDP whether the economic growth effect on CO2 emissions would vary
per capita to capture its nonlinear effect on CO2 emissions per depending on threshold variables in a data-driven way and not
capita (see e.g., Refs. [2,29]; among many others). The previous through a predetermined classification as was the case with previous
literature only focuses on the nonlinear effect of income per capita studies.
on CO2 emissions per capita, but they ignore possible nonlinear Another strand of literature also highlights conflicting results
effects of other variables on CO2 emissions. Henceforth, to test for between renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Most
the potential nonlinear relationship between the determinants of of these studies find a negative and significant effect of renewable
CO2 emissions per capita and CO2 emissions per capita, this paper energy consumption on CO2 emissions irrespective of the sample
uses a panel threshold model, which allows us to test for all and methodology choices (e.g., Allard et al., 2018; Alvarez-Herranz
possible nonlinear relationships compared to the benchmark linear et al., 2018 [37]; Balsalobre-Lorente, 2018 [40]; Berkun et al., 2019
model. The recent developments in panel threshold regression [2,3,5,8,14,16,29,41e43,45e48,52]; Yang et al., 2019; [9,15]. How-
models (e.g. Ref. [30], would not only allow us to tackle the endo- ever, there were also studies that either found a positive or an
geneity in both regressors and threshold variables but also enable insignificant relationship between renewable energy and CO2
us to capture the potential nonlinear effects of other variables on emissions [25,49]. The latter papers argued that renewable energy
118
C. Chen, M. Pinar and T. Stengos Renewable Energy 194 (2022) 117e128
Table 1
Summary of empirical studies.
Allard et al. [36] 1994 Quantile regression 74 countries Support for N-shaped EKC except for the
e2012 upper-middle-income countries.
REC and CO2 emissions ()
Alvarez-Herranz 1990 Panel least squares 17 OECD countries Support for N-shaped EKC
et al. (2018) e2012 REC and CO2 emissions ()
Anwar et al. [37] 1980 Quantile regression; FMOLS, DOLS, FE-OLS ASEAN countries (Thailand, Singapore, Support for EKC in different quatiles
e2013 Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine, Vietnam) REC and CO2 emissions ()
NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
Apergis et al. [25] 1984 panel error correction mode 19 countries REC and CO2 emissions (þ)
e2007 Nuclear energy consumption and CO2
emissions ()
Apergis [13] 1960 Quatile co-integration 15 OECD countries Support for EKC hypothesis
e2013
Azavedo et al. [38] 1980 Linear regression Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa Lagged CO2 emissions (þ)
e2011 GDP per capita (þ)
Balsalobre- 1985 Panel least squares Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK Support for N-shaped EKC
Lorente [39] e2016 REC and CO2 emissions ()
Berkun et al. 1996 PMG-ARDL 16 EU countries REC and CO2 emissions ()
(2019) e2014 NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
Ben Jebli et al. [40] 1990 System GMM and Granger causality 102 countries REC and CO2 emissions ()
e2015
Bhattacharya et al. 1991 FMOLS, system GMM 85 countries NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
[3] e2012 REC and CO2 emissions ()
Bilgili et al. [41] 1977 panel FMOLS and panel DOLS 17 OECD countries Support for EKC hypothesis,
e2010 REC and CO2 emissions ()
Cai et al. [42] 1965 ARDL G7 countries REC and CO2 emissions () for Germany
e2015 and US
Charfeddine and 1980 Panel vector autoregressive MENA countries REC and CO2 emissions ()
Kahia [43] e2015
Chen et al. [29] 1980 ARDL China Support for EKC hypothesis,
e2014 REC and CO2 emissions ()
Chen et al. [44] 1995 FMOLS, DOLS Chinese regions Support and no support for EKC
e2012 hypothesis;
Effects of REC and NREC varies across
regions
Churchill et al. 1870 Common Correlated Mean Group (CCEMG) OECD countries Support for EKC for panel data
[18] e2014 Mixed results for country-specific analysis
Support for N-shaped EKC
Dogan and Seker 1980 DOLS EU countries Support for EKC hypothesis
[8] e2012 REC and CO2 emissions ()
NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
Dong et al. [45] 1990 common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) 128 countries, different geographical clusters Economic growth and CO2 emissions (þ)
e2014 REC and CO2 emissions ()
Dong et al. [46] 1993 ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS China Support for EKC
e2016 Nuclear energy, REC and CO2 emissions ()
Inglesi-Lotz and 1980 DOLS Sub-saharan countries No support for EKC
Dogan [16] e2011 REC and CO2 emissions ()
NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
Lau et al. [4] 1995 FMOLS and GMM 18 OECD countries Support for EKC
e2015 NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
Nuclear energy and CO2 emissions ()
Liu et al. [47] 1970 VECM Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and No support for EKC
e2013 Thailand REC and CO2 emissions ()
NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
Ma et al. [48] 1995 FMOLS and DOLS France, Germany Support for EKC
e2015 REC and CO2 emissions ()
NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
Menyah and 1960 Granger causality US REC and CO2 emissions e insignificant
Wolde-Rufael e2007 Nuclear energy consumption and CO2
[49] emissions ()
Mikayilov et al. 1992 Johansen, ARDLBT, DOLS, FMOLS and CCR Azerbaijan No support for EKC
[50] e2013 methods
Shafiei and Salim 1980 Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, OECD countries Support for EKC,
[2] e2011 Affluence, and Technology NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
REC and CO2 emissions ()
Sharif et al. [5] 1990 FMOLS and heterogeneous panel causality 74 countries Support for EKC
e2015 techniques NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
REC and CO2 emissions ()
Sinha and 1971 ARDL India Support for EKC
Shahbaz [14] e2015 REC and CO2 emissions ()
Ulucak and Bigili 1961 Continuously updated fully modified and 15 low income, middle-income and high Support for EKC
[51] e2013 continuously updated bias corrected models income categories.
Vo et al. [52] FMOLS, DOLS, and Granger causality
(continued on next page)
119
C. Chen, M. Pinar and T. Stengos Renewable Energy 194 (2022) 117e128
Table 1 (continued )
1971 Australia, Canada, Chile, Japan, Mexico, Support and no support for EKC depending
e2014 Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru on country.
REC and CO2 emissions ()
Wang et al. [53] 1980 Vector Error-Correction Model (VCM) and Granger 170 countries Varying results based on income per capita
e2011 causality levels of countries.
Yang et al. [54] 1995 VCM and panel-ARDL 24 countries in Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) Support for EKC
e2014 initiative REC and CO2 emissions ()
NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
Yao et al. [15] 1990 panel FMOLS and panel DOLS 17 countries Support for EKC
e2014 REC and CO2 emissions ()
Zhang and Liu [55] 1995 FMOLS 10 Northeast and Southeast Asian No support for EKC
e2014 REC and CO2 emissions ()
NREC and CO2 emissions (þ)
Zoundi [9] 1980 panel FMOLS and panel DOLS, system GMM 25 African countries No support for EKC
e1982 REC and CO2 emissions ()
difference on the model (5) to eliminate the time-invariant fixed constant 2010 US dollars, is obtained from the World Development
effect and have Indicators of the World Bank [59]. CO2 emissions per capita
(measured in metric tons), renewable energy consumption (REC)
Dyit ¼ bT DUi;t þ dT DUi;t ðgÞ þ Dht þ Dei;t ; (6) and non-renewable energy consumption (NREC), both are
measured in millions of kilowatt-hours, are obtained from the U.S.
where Dyit ¼ DlnðCO2i;t Þ DlnðCO2i;t1 Þ, DUi;t ¼ Ui;t Ui;t1 , Energy Information Administration [60]. In line with the existing
DUi;t ðgÞ ¼ Ui;t Iðqi;t gÞ Ui;t1 Iðqi;t1 gÞ, Dht ¼ ht ht1 , and literature, we use the REC per capita and NREC per capita as proxies
Dei;t ¼ ei;t ei;t1 . for renewable and non-renewable energy consumption
Then, we use the GMM approach to estimate model (6) by [29,44,46,61e63]. Therefore, we used the population data from the
employing the orthogonal condition EðDeit zit Þ ¼ 0 for each t ¼ World Development Indicators to construct renewable and non-
t0 ; …; T and i ¼ 1; …; N, where zit is a valid m by one vector of in- renewable energy consumption per capita values. We also control
strument variable and 2 < t0 < T. Our set of instruments includes all for trade openness (see e.g. Refs. [64e66], urbanization (see e.g.
the available lags in the difference of the endogenous variables up Refs. [64,67e69], and oil prices [61,70,71] as additional control
to five periods before the period t. variables as they are found to be important determinants of the CO2
T emissions. Trade openness is measured as the sum of the exports
Let q ¼ ½bT ; dT ; gT and q0 ¼ ½bT0 ; dT0 ; g0 be the true parameter
and imports as a percentage of GDP per capita, and urbanization is
set. We consider the following m-dimensional column vector of the
the percentage of the population living in urban areas, where both
P
n
sample moment conditions gn ðqÞ ¼ n1 gi ðqÞ, where variables are obtained from the World Development Indicators of
i¼1 the World Bank [59]. Finally, oil prices (measured using the spot
2 3 price on Brent crude oil) from the Statistical Review of World En-
zit0 Dyit0 bT DUi;t0 dT DUi;t0 ðgÞ Dht0 ergy of the British Petroleum [72], which is deflated with the
gi ðqÞ ¼ 4 … 5 consumer price index (CPI) from the World Development
T T
ziT DyiT b DUi;T d DUi;T ðgÞ DhT Indicators.
Table 2 provides a correlation matrix among four variables. CO2
for all i ¼ 1; …; N. Note that, for a short T panel, the orthogonal emissions is positively correlated with all the variables with the
condition implies Eðgi ðq0 ÞÞ ¼ 0. exception of oil prices. Similarly, relatively richer countries tend to
Therefore, we can obtain the GMM estimator as have higher REC and NREC per capita, trade openness and
urbanization.
q^ ¼ argminq2Q gn ðqÞT Wn gn ðqÞ
5. Results
However, as the sample moment condition is not continuous in
g, we adopt a grid search algorithm. Given a threshold level g,
Prior to our linear dynamic panel regressions and dynamic panel
model (6) is linear in b and d. Therefore, we can apply GMM esti-
threshold regression analysis, we first check whether there is any
mation for a linear model to obtain b^ðgÞ and ^
dðgÞ. Substituting the cross-sectional dependence of the variables used. Most of the
slope estimator, b ^ðgÞ, back to our GMM objective function,
^ðgÞ and d existing studies that use conventional panel methods fail to test for
we then can obtain the threshold estimator the cross-sectional dependence, and if such dependence exists, it is
important to use second-generation panel methods to account for
T
g^ ¼ argming2Qg gn ðq^ðgÞÞ Wn gn ðq^ðgÞÞ; the cross-sectional dependence. Therefore, we will use panel unit
root tests to determine whether to use the levels or the first dif-
^ðgÞ ¼ ½b
^ðgÞT ; ^ ferences (growth) of the variables. The test results on the cross-
where q dðgÞT ; gT . The estimators of the slope pa-
sectional dependence and panel unit root tests would then
^ ^ ^ Þ and d
rameters are b ¼ bðg ^ ¼^ dðg^ Þ. As usual, we apply two-step enable us to choose the specifications required to carry out the
estimation to obtain the optimal GMM estimator. The two-step linear and threshold GMM estimations.
optimal GMM estimator can be obtained as:
Step 1. we estimate the model with Wn as an identity matrix and 5.1. Cross-sectional dependence and panel unit root tests
collect the residuals, Dei;t .
The earlier literature that examined the determinants of the CO2
Step 2. we construct the new weighting matrix, emissions mostly used the first generation of panel unit root tests
" ! !T #1 (see, e.g., Fahrani and Shahbaz, 2014 [2,9,73,74]; among others),
1X n
1X n
1X n
which are based on the cross-sectional independence assumption
Wn ¼ g ðqÞgi ðqÞT g ðqÞ gi ðqÞ :
n i¼1 i n i¼1 i n i¼1 (see e.g. Refs. [75e79], and would suffer from size distortions if
possible cross-sectional dependence was to be ignored [80].
Then, we estimate the model with the new weighting matrix. Therefore, recent papers started to examine the cross-sectional
Finally, we employ a sup-Wald test proposed by Seo and Shin [30] dependence (see, e.g. Refs. [8,18], and tackle the issue of cross-
to test the presence of a threshold effect. As suggested by Seo and sectional dependence with the use of second-generation panel
Shin [30], following Hansen [58], we use a bootstrapping approach unit root tests (e.g., the cross-sectionally augmented Im-Pesaran-
to generate critical values. Shin (CIPS) unit root test proposed by Pesaran [81]).
Henceforth, in line with Dogan and Seker [8] and Churchill et al.
4. Data [18], before proceeding with the dynamic panel regression analysis,
we first examine the presence of cross-sectional dependence by
To investigate the role of GDP per capita and energy consump- using the cross-section dependence test of Pesaran [82]. Further-
tion per capita (i.e., renewable energy consumption per capita and more, to account for the presence of cross-sectional dependence in
non-renewable energy consumption per capita) on CO2 emissions the variables, we also carried out the cross-sectionally augmented
per capita, we collected data for 97 countries covering the period Im-Pesaran-Shin (CIPS) unit root test proposed by Pesaran [81].
between 1995 and 2015. GDP per capita, which is measured in Table 3 presents the cross-sectional dependence test and CIPS unit
121
C. Chen, M. Pinar and T. Stengos Renewable Energy 194 (2022) 117e128
Table 2
Correlation matrix.
CO2 emissions pc GDP per capita REC per capita NREC per capita Oil price Urbanization Trade
CO2 emissions pc 1
GDP per capita 0.8936*** 1
REC per capita 0.3608*** 0.4790*** 1
NREC per capita 0.9731*** 0.8752*** 0.3948*** 1
Oil price 0.0846*** 0.0898*** 0.0027 0.0618*** 1
Urbanization 0.8260*** 0.7945*** 0.3398*** 0.8374*** 0.0453** 1
Trade 0.3098*** 0.2605*** 0.0867*** 0.2859*** 0.0610*** 0.2061*** 1
Notes: Total number of observations is 2037 for the set of variables used, and all variables are in logarithms. ***, **, * represent that correlation coefficient is significantly
different from zero at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels, respectively.
Table 3
Cross-section dependence and panel unit root tests.
CO2 emissions pc GDP per capita REC per capita NREC per capita Oil price Urbanization Trade openness
Cross-section dependence test statistic 14.45*** 38.26*** 9.17*** 18.39*** 1.753* 163.39*** 52.31***
Unit root tests
Level 0.909 0.820 1.150 0.698 1.467* 1.120 1.278
First difference 3.701*** 2.865*** 4.194*** 3.904*** 3.569*** 1.607** 3.576***
Notes: All variables are in logarithms. ***, **, * specify significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level. Cross-section dependence test of Pesaran [82] used where under the null
hypothesis of cross-sectional independence, the statistic is distributed as a two-tailed standard normal. The unit root tests (i.e., CIPS test of Pesaran [81]) include two lags.
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C. Chen, M. Pinar and T. Stengos Renewable Energy 194 (2022) 117e128
Table 6
Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Results when REC per capita is used as a threshold variable with different country classifications.
Data set used Country sample with stronger Developed country sample Developing country sample
institutions
*** significantly different from zero at the 1% level, **, significantly different from zero at the 5% level, *, significantly different from zero at the 10% level. This table provides
estimations of the dynamic panel threshold model using FD-GMM method. The moment conditions used are listed in (). The lag length is one. P-values are provided in brackets.
The number of thresholds is one.
growth. For countries with stronger institutions that use REC per urbanization on CO2 emissions.
capita below a given threshold (column 1 of Table 6), an increase in We also carry out the second set of robustness analyses by using
urbanization leads to higher CO2 emissions per capita growth. On different proxies for REC and NREC. The existing literature also used
the other hand, in developed countries that use REC per capita renewable energy consumption as a percentage of the total energy
below a threshold (column 3 of Table 6), an increase in urbanization consumption as a proxy for REC [99e102]. Therefore, we use the
leads to lower CO2 emissions per capita growth. As discussed by REC as a percentage of the total energy consumption in our analysis.
Salahuddin et al. [96], urbanization has both positive and negative For the NREC, we use the nonrenewable energy intensity (i.e.,
effects on CO2 emissions. Increased urbanization could lead to nonrenewable energy consumption per $1,000 GDP).
increased energy consumption, which then increases CO2 emis- Renewable energy consumption as a percentage of the total
sion. At the same time, urbanization would reduce the energy in- energy consumption is relatively higher in most of the African
tensity [97,98], which could reduce CO2 emissions. Therefore, the countries. For instance, more than 80% of the energy consumption
existing literature found both positive and negative effects of in Malawi, Cameroon, Madagascar, Burkina Faso, Chad, Rwanda,
Table 7
Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Results when REC as a percentage of total energy consumption is used as a threshold variable with different country classifications.
Threshold Estimate (lnREC) Country sample with stronger Developed country sample Developing country sample
institutions
*** significantly different from zero at the 1% level, **, significantly different from zero at the 5% level, *, significantly different from zero at the 10% level. This table provides
estimations of the dynamic panel threshold model using FD-GMM method. The moment conditions used are listed in (). The lag length is one. P-values are provided in brackets.
The number of thresholds is one.
124
C. Chen, M. Pinar and T. Stengos Renewable Energy 194 (2022) 117e128
Tanzania, Bhutan, Uganda is obtained from renewable energy literature. We also carried out our analysis using different country
sources between 1995 and 2015. However, the share of the clusters and found that this finding is robust for countries with
renewable energy mix in these countries has declined over time. stronger institutions and developed countries. Similarly, the find-
For instance, Tanzania's renewable energy consumption used to be ings are robust to the use of alternative proxies for renewable en-
93% of the total energy consumption in 1995, which was declined to ergy consumption.
83% in 2015. On the other hand, most of the developed countries Our results also provide valuable policy implications. Even
increased their renewable energy mix between 1995 and 2015. For though renewable energy consumption does not lead to a decrease
instance, 2% of the total energy consumption was obtained from in the growth of per capita CO2 emissions for some countries at the
renewable sources in Germany in 1995, but that percentage is initial stages of its use, in the long-term, if governments were to
increased to 15% in 2015. Similar trend is observed for most increase using renewable energy and surpass a certain threshold
developed countries, including Belgium and the United Kingdom that would certainly contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions.
(1% in 1995 vs. 9% in 2015).
When we carry out our dynamic threshold model to four
different country sample, when renewable energy consumption as CRediT authorship contribution statement
a percentage of total energy consumption is used as a threshold
variable, we reject the linear model at the 1% level for the three- Chaoyi Chen: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis,
country samples: countries with stronger institutions, developed Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Writing e
and developing country samples. However, for the less democratic original draft, Writing e review & editing. Mehmet Pinar:
countries, the linear model is not rejected. Table 7 provides the Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation,
results for three samples where the linear model is rejected. The Methodology, Project administration, Writing e original draft,
threshold levels for the country sample with strong institutions, Writing e review & editing. Thanasis Stengos: Conceptualization,
developed and developing country samples are 3.0078, 3.1198 and Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project
3.6167 (i.e., 20.2%, 22.6%, 37.2% of final energy consumption is ob- administration, Writing e original draft, Writing e review &
tained from the renewable energy sources), respectively. Our editing.
findings are similar to those reported in Table 6. In particular, if
countries with stronger institutions and developed countries
Declaration of competing interest
consume more than 20.2% and 22.6% of the energy from renewable
resources, 1% growth in REC reduces the growth of CO2 emissions
The authors declare that they have no known competing
per capita by 0.40% and 0.42%, respectively. However, if countries
financial interests or personal relationships that could have
use less than these threshold levels, the growth in REC does not
appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
reduce CO2 emissions per capita growth.
Overall, our baseline findings are robust to different country
sample classifications and the use of a different proxy for renewable Acknowledgments
energy consumption. In particular, countries with stronger in-
stitutions and developed countries are the ones that would benefit Mehmet Pinar gratefully acknowledges the financial support
from consuming higher levels of renewable energy to meet their from the Research Investment Fund of Edge Hill University (grant
commitments to reduce CO2 emissions. number: 1PINAR17). Thanasis Stengos acknowledges the financial
support by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of
Canada (grant number: 4301).
6. Conclusion and policy implications
One of the main contributors to global climate warming has Appendix A. Country list (97)
been CO2 emissions and as a result, there has been extensive
literature examining its determinants. The majority of studies have Albania, Algeria, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh,
used linear models to examine the role of energy consumption Belgium, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burkina
(non-renewable and renewable energy consumption), trade Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica,
openness, urbanization, oil prices and economic growth on CO2 Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El
emissions per capita, which resulted in mixed and conflicting Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Estonia, Eswatini, Finland, France,
findings. To provide an explanation for these conflicting results in Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala,
the literature, we use data from 97 countries between 1995 and Guyana, Honduras, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Israel,
2015 to examine the potential nonlinear effects of energy con- Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Korea, Latvia,
sumption, trade openness, urbanization, oil prices and economic Lithuania, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mauritania,
growth on CO2 per capita emissions with the use of dynamic Mauritius, Mexico, Mongolia, Morocco, Nepal, Netherlands, New
threshold models. We found that the relationship between Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Philippines, Poland,
renewable energy consumption growth and CO2 emissions per Portugal, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal,
capita growth is only significant and negative if countries consume Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sudan,
higher levels of renewable energy. This result provides an expla- Sweden, Switzerland, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, Uganda,
nation for the mixed and conflicting findings of the previous United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay.
125
C. Chen, M. Pinar and T. Stengos Renewable Energy 194 (2022) 117e128
126
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