New Concept for Aircraft Maintenance Management

The “Dolphin Curve Life Cycle Model” of A Typical Repairable System

Qi Yanjie; Maintainability Consultant,

Lu Zhigang; Institute for Reliability Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnic University
Song Bifeng; Institute for Reliability Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnic University

Key Words: Repairable System; Maintenance management; Maintenance-man-hours; Complex system; Nonlinear characteristic;
The Spoon-Shaped Curve; The Dolphin Curve;

SUMMARY & CONCLUSION maintenance is that after all it is conducted by human beings.
The nature of maintenance is that it should be proactive,
Guided by the concept of maintenance engineering — Men- and should be based on providing resources to ensure that
Aircraft-Environment Complex System (MEMAECS), based long term solutions are implemented. Maintenance is a kind of
on many years’ observations and analyses of statistical data, creation, a science, and even an art. In this paper, the study of
and integrated with experts’ experiences, the authors’ further the “Dolphin Curve” model attempts to make an exploration
study of the Spoon-shaped Curve (Qi, 2003) has shown that in to display the general principle of maintenance practice
the maintenance practice of aircraft this curve exists as a especially in the field of aircraft maintenance.
statistical model – The Dolphin Curve, which can be divided
into three types. From the viewpoint of maintenance practice 2. REVIEW OF THE SPOON-SHAPED CURVE MODEL
of aircraft, The Dolphin Curve model has further elaborated
the general relation in the concept of MEMAECS between Figure 1 illustrates the “Spoon-shaped Curve”. The
maintenance and product life. Aircraft are typically repairable “spoon-shaped curve” divides the aircraft age into four stages,
systems. Therefore, the Dolphin Curve Model can also help us i.e. Preliminary Stage, Transitional Stage, Mature stage,
broaden the train of thought in the exploration of modeling for and Aging and Failure Stage (or Declining Stage). The
repairable systems. shape of the curve itself shows that in MEPAECS the
distribution of statistic value to man-hour rate of aircraft
1. INTRODUCTION (DMMH/FH: Direct Maintenance Man Hour/Flight Hours)
takes on regular changes, which shows that the indexγof
Reliability and Maintainability （R&M）are DMMH/FH is not completely a norm, or we can say, norm is
characteristics of product design. It is nearly impossible to just one of the peculiar cases, and it displays obvious stage
improve a product’s reliability and maintainability easily and characteristics at the above four stages in the service
economically after the design of a product has been finished. maintenance of aircraft.
Without knowledge of R&M concepts, or without being fully
trained to accept, the design engineers would not consider the
R&M significantly. Thereby, many years later, the advantages
of R&M inherent to the product may decline, or not be
demonstrated. What’s worse, the disappearance of this kind of
advantage will not happen “overnight”, thereby precluding
with emergency measures. The process of disappearance is
quite slow and concealed. Only after the product has been
used repeatedly for a long time, will such problems emerge.
The service maintenance department has to yield to the fact
that the product has been designed and worked out. This fact
forces the maintenance of product to lie in a passive position Fig 1. The Spoon-shaped Curve
for a long time.
There are many kinds of maintenance, such as PM
During the Preliminary Stage, or the period of t0 ~ t1,
(Preventive Maintenance), PdM (Predictive Maintenance),
while the aircraft has just been manufactured, all the
PaM (Proactive Maintenance), Corrective Maintenance (CM),
parameters of the aircraft’s various parts are under the
CBM (Condition Based Maintenance), and RCM (Reliability
preliminary stage of mechanical testing, running-in, and
Centered Maintenance), etc. Nevertheless, no matter which
changing, leading to an unstable operation status and high
type of maintenance is adopted, it has to be actualized through
degree of trouble frequency and stochastic behavior. This can
man’s activities. One of the most prominent features of

RAMS 2005 533 0-7803-8824-0/05/$20.00 ©2005 IEEE

easily be seen from the failures of the airborne electronics. As authors have found out that the curve shapes obtained through
far as the field of maintenance personnel are concerned, they statistic analysis and processing of the statistic data of
are also under the preliminary stage of understanding the new different types of aircraft are different. We have discovered in
aircraft and its respective accessories, and their work our research that there are three typical types of curves, which
efficiency is low with too many maintenance man-hours. are respectively shown in Figures 2, 3 and 4
During this stage, the occurrence frequency of troubles and
man-related problems are very high. Therefore, in this period
the maintenance ratio is at a peak.
In the period of t1 ~ t2, with the increasing of the age (or
flying hours), every part and accessory of the aircraft has
undergone tests and running-ins. The aircraft functions well,
with lower failure frequency and longer intervals between
failures. The functions of the aircraft and its respective parts
and accessories are stable, which helps the maintenance
personnel understand and skillfully operate it, hence heightens
maintenance efficiency, and gradually shortens maintenance
Fig 2. Dolphin Curve A
ratio. During this stage, the curve tends to decrease gradually.
We call this stage between t1 ~ t2 Transitional Stage (or
running-in stage).
After the transitional stage, structures of the aircraft have
undergone transitions from technological running-in to the
period of t2 ~ t3. Every part and accessory of the aircraft
operates and functions well. During this stage there are quite
few mechanical failures, if any, it's mainly due to the airborne
electronics' reliability. So, comparing this stage with the
previous two stages, we can see that to complete the same FH Fig..3 Dolphin Curve B
now needs comparatively shorter DMMH. The lowest
DMMH/FH exists in this stage and lasts a comparatively long
stable period. We call this stage of t2 ~ t3 Mature Stage. The
maintenance ratio in the mature stage is the main criteria to
identify the goal or DMMH/FH index of an aircraft.
When the aircraft’s service enters the phase of t3 ~ t4, the
mechanical parts and accessories experience a greater number
of failures and hence need more preventive and corrective
maintenances, thereby increasing the maintenance ratio. As
the equipment ages, the maintenance ratio again achieves a Fig. 4 Dolphin Curve C
relatively peak value. We call this stage of t3 ~ t4 Aging and
Failure Stage. Study of the peak value at this stage is of great
importance to such things as age exploration and a validation
of aircraft’s life cycle from the angle of maintenance
engineering.
The Spoon-shaped Curve model has displayed the general
law in the classic life cycle process -- “Preliminary Stage,
Transitional Stage, Mature stage, and Aging and Failure
Stage (or Declining Stage)” – which is shown in the service
Fig.5 The Dolphin Curve
process of aircraft.
To facilitate the comparison of the three curves, the
3. THE DOLPHIN CURVE MODEL curves have been overlaid as shown in Figure 5. Through
careful observation and comparison, it’s not difficult for us to
The Spoon-shaped Curve had been used by some find out that although the three curves have different shapes,
researchers in the medical field to name a statistical analytical they still have some common features.
model curve, which describes high blood pressure. In order to Each of the curves within the Dolphin Curve has a
avoid misunderstanding and trouble in our future studies, distinct curve shape, and those shapes have been named as
academic exchanges, and document retrievals, which may be “Dolphin Curve A”, “Dolphin Curve B”, and “Dolphin Curve
caused by the use of the same term, henceforward, we rename C”, respectively.
the curve shown in figure 1 from Spoon-shaped Curve to the The Dolphin Curve model divides the life cycle of
Dolphin Curve. aircraft into four characteristic phases -- Preliminary Stage,
In the study of the Dolphin Curve model, based on many Transitional Stage (or Running-in Stage), Mature stage, and
years’ observations and analyses of a lot of statistic data, the Aging and Failure Stage (or Declining Stage). The general law

RAMS 2005 534 0-7803-8824-0/05/$20.00 ©2005 IEEE

in the process of this classic life cycle is still prominent here,
as shown in Figure 6. These common features held by all of
the Curves.
Fig 6. The Dolphin Curve Life Cycle
Model
We relatively regard the features displayed in the Dolphin
Curve A as standard. What causes the difference of the curves
mainly displayed at the preliminary stage of the service of the
aircraft? There is no major difference having been found in
the rest three stages (running-in stage, mature stage, and
declining stage).
There are many factors resulting in the difference of the
curves. Each factor is interrelated and interdependent, and
cannot be lumped together under a single term. However,
generally speaking, standing on the point of aircraft
maintenance management, three major factors can be studied
and analyzed. Those factors are the skill of the maintenance-
man, the level of sophistication of the Reliability and
Maintainability of the design, and the degree to which the
usage level of the aircraft is consistent, and the degree of
perfection of the maintenance performed. These factors are
the three main components of MEPAECS.
Aircraft maintenance work is a cumulative activity, in
which any mistake made by any maintenance-man in his work
may negate the collective’s achievement. However, there
always exists individual differences in the skill levels of
maintenance personnel (Qi, 2001). This feature decides on the
use of the concept “average skill level of maintenance-man”
when taking into consideration of the factor of maintenance-
man. When the average skill level of maintenance-man is
higher than average, the adaptation to the new aircraft’s
maintenance is faster, the ability to resolve failures is higher,
and the ratio of DMMH/FH is lowered.
The relationship of maintenance-man and aircraft is based
on the degree and frequency of the contact that the
maintenance-man has with the new aircraft. There is no
adaptation of the aircraft (product) to the maintenance-man,
but rather, adaptation of the maintenance-man to the product
(aircraft). The aircraft (product) has no memory, no thought,
and no interior thinking activity (at least it’s the fact now).
Hence there exists no “initiative”. On the contrary, the
maintenance-man has memory, thought, and reasoning
activity. The maintenance-man, who is active in maintenance,
is the principal focus of maintenance.
Generally speaking, if the other conditions are the same,
when Curve B is compared with Curve A, Curve B shows that
maintenance-man’s average skill level is relatively low; the
R&M design level of aircraft is relatively low; the regulations
RAMS 2005
of aircraft’s service maintenance and the perfection and
maturity of management level are relatively low.
Generally speaking, if the other conditions are the same,
when model C is compared with model A, Curve C shows that
maintenance-man’s average skill level is relatively low; the
R&M design level of aircraft is relatively low; or the whole
structure of the aircraft is relatively complicated; the
regulations of aircraft’s service maintenance and the
perfection and maturity of management level are quite good.
The connotation of maintenance management personnel’s
level refers to the maintenance management personnel’s
quality of work and ability to deal with and coordinate the
relation between aircraft maintenance and the operational and
support environment. Generally speaking, the environment of
military aircraft is much more complicated than that of the
civilian aircraft, and is extremely demanding.
Other factors directly affecting the specific shapes of
curve include: pilot’s proficiency level; the aircraft utilization
rate; the degree of complexity of the aircraft itself, climatic
issues at deployed locations, etc. Nevertheless, the general
tendency of Dolphin Curve features is constant. When we say
an aircraft is new, we mean two kinds of situations. One is
new product and new type, while the other is new product but
old type.
For example, when the Dolphin Curve has been flattened,
and the curve as a whole gets close to the horizontal axis, we
can say the maintainability characteristics of the aircraft have
been improved. If the whole structure of the aircraft is rather
simple, the shape of the curve will also be flatter and get close
to the horizontal axis, just like aircraft T-38 (Qi, 2002).
Because the Dolphin Curve concept is abstract, it can be
put to use widely. However, as external reality is ever
changing, a Dolphin Curve Model can not be copied verbatim
without disregard of specific conditions. The existing Dolphin
Curve must be modified when meeting a specific problem in
order to satisfy the external reality’s appropriate requirements.
4. ELABORATION ON THE DOLPHIN CURVE
There is a radical difference of epistemology between the
Dolphin Curve model and the traditional “analytical method”.
The analytical formula must be written out in traditional
analytical method, and what is pursued here is “precision”.
Otherwise, a problem cannot be said to have been solved.
However, the epistemology of the Dolphin Curve model
stresses on “horizontal combination, dialectical synthesis”,
and takes the principle in system engineering – the secret for a
system to get new nature lies in the organizablility of
constructive relation – as its direction and method. By using
such thinking methods in philosophy as cross direction,
reverse direction, analogy, and combination to synthesize the
intrinsic attributes, which lie in the internal and external
correlated structures but have not been utilized yet, and to
replace, transform, optimize, deepen the intention, and expand
the extension, to realize the leap in the nature of the concept
of technology, and to produce “new concept technology”.
The maintenance-man’s mind may be aligned to the
traditional practices of rational thinking, deduction and action.
A discipline is divided into more and more sub-ones, and
535 0-7803-8824-0/05/$20.00 ©2005 IEEE
becomes more and more tiny, more and more specified, and
consequently the thoughts and design methods fight their own
battles, isolate and not support each other. In design each item
always needs a specific ability, neglects the outward organic
relations, and thus results in a colossal management system,
complicated structure, and higher consumption cost. This is
the universal addition design, in which the approach is from
simplification to complication.
With the development of the science and technology, and
the perfecting of the system engineering and operational
research, we have realized the intrinsic relations in MEPAECS
(Man-Aircraft-Environment). The rational thinking method
develops from simplicity to complication, from complication
to the condition of “advanced simplicity”, and from
“analytical era” to “dialectical synthesis era”. It is the thinking
method that “The Dolphin Curve” attempts to elaborate. What
it concerns most is the developing tendency instead of the
precise number results. Precision is expected, but will not be
sought painstakingly. In the specific mathematical method to
produce curves, the method of least quadratic curve is
adopted, and the experts’ revision will be used as an aid in the
outcome.
By using the new concept method – the parameter index
of maintenance man-hour rate changes as the service life of
aircraft changes – we can macroscopically build the thinking
method to control maintenance man-hour of aircraft, and
avoid the increasing waste of maintenance man-hour caused
by imposing uniformity on all enterprises: substituting the old
idea for the integrity of MEPAECS (man-aircraft-environment
system). Thus, it can be carried out to seek to reduce the total
number of maintenance man-hours expended.
The 2001 Paris Aviation Exhibition was unprecedented.
It displayed to us the three major tendencies in the history of
the world’s aviation – unpiloted operation, super transport
availability, and broad use of robots. At the same time, it
reminded us that aircraft have becoming increasingly
complicated. While new aircraft always show their alluring
aspects, they often neglect the underlying costs of
maintenance and the impact of unexpected problems.
The modern aircraft and its accessory equipments
become more and more complicated. The purpose of the
complication is to improve the performance of the aircraft and
its technologically advanced equipments. However, the more
complicated the aircraft and accessory equipment are, the
easier for failures to occur and the more difficult to maintain.
The complication of the equipment will be meaningless when
the extent of the complication severely influences the
reliability and maintainability of the equipments. Hence, there
exists a sharp contradiction between complication and R&M
(reliability and maintainability). At the same time, the
developing process of a new aircraft is a competition between
time and speed. The development period is so long that it
cannot suffer the repetition of the developing process.
Accordingly, a suite of scientific methods is needed to guide
the continuous process of product development,
manufacturing and life cycle maintenance. Therefore, the
complexity of equipments has resulted in urgent problems in
the areas of reliability and maintainability (R&M) which must
be solved through a total systems engineering approach.
RAMS 2005 536
The “Bath-tub Curve” has displayed the general law of
the failure, and helped us to find out a solution to problems
facing vague failure phenomena in the past, and to eliminate
our phobia to failure in some degree. “The Bath-tub Curve”
has played an ever active role in the history of the
development of reliability and maintainability (R&M). But
now, if we stand on the point of maintenance, we can find that
the thinking method of “The Bath-tub Curve” directed
people’s whole attention to the product, and thus, neglected
the presence of maintenance-man. This thinking method in
technology and other historical factors forced the
maintenance-man to be “nurse of the machine”, and changed
the perception of their work to be “maintaining machine”. In
China, it brings about less effective maintenance. Moreover,
in the developing countries, “maintenance” has almost
become the synonym of “cheapness and passiveness”. The
maintenance, especially the maintenance in developing
countries, should seek a radical outlet for its own
development.
The Dolphin Curve Model takes maintenance-man and
MEMAECS as the starting point in every consideration, while
the Bath-Tub Curve Model considers everything from the
product only. The Dolphin Curve Model is a product under the
idea of “man is the first consideration”. We hope that it can
play a role of “pao zhuan yin yu”(a Chinese idiom, which
means to offer a few commonplace remarks by way of
introduction so that others may come up with valuable
opinions) in establishing a theoretical system to take
maintenance-man as the main part. Nowadays, it is stressed
that “man is the first consideration”. Maintenance has more
reasons to be a field to take man as the main part. It is
necessary to establish a theoretical system to consider man
first.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
The consequence of failure and the result of maintenance
are contradictory. The life cycle of aircraft can be regarded as
a struggling process between the failure process and the
maintenance process. This struggling process is a unity of
opposites. The end of this contradiction means the end of the
useful life of the aircraft. The famous “Bath-Tub Curve”
model described us a failure process, while “The Dolphin
Curve” model elaborates us the maintenance process. From
the reliability aspect, the Bath-Tub Curve model displayed the
general law between failure and the life of product, while the
Dolphin Curve model was able to direct us to understand the
general relation between maintenance and the life of product.
If we see MEMAECS (Maintenance Engineering: Man-
Aircraft-Environment Complicated System) as a kind of
world outlook, then the Dolphin Curve can be seen as a kind
of “methodology”. The “world outlook” of MEMAECS is a
dialectic thought, and it looks on the “maintenance and
management of aircraft” in a related, developing and
comprehensive way. Although the concept of R&M originated
from the electronics industry, in the past decades, it has
widely been used in other fields such as aerospace,
automobile, household appliance, mechanism, architecture,
weapon, and nuclear. We hope that the dialectical thought of
0-7803-8824-0/05/$20.00 ©2005 IEEE
MEMAECS, having germinated in the field of aviation, can Vigorously Alive”, Proceeding Annual Reliability and
provide a theoretical support for aeronautic maintenance, Maintainability Symposium, 1982, pp.313-316.
which is systemizing day by day. We also hope that it will 10. Lawless.J.F., Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime
contribute to the developing theory of Condition Based Data, China Statistical Publishing Company, Beijing,
Maintenance (CBM). China , 1998.
The “activeness” of maintenance-man is limited on the 11. Douglas M. Bates, Donald G. Watts, Nonlinear
whole by the environment he stays. It is also shown the Regression Analysis and Its Applications, China
dialectic relation expressed in the concept of MEMAECS. Statistical Publishing Company, Beijing, China, 1997.
However, the learning and comprehensive abilities of 12. George E. P. Box, Gwilym M. Jenkins, Gregory C.
maintenance-man are infinite. Hence we can make use of such
Reinsel, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control
abilities to exploit maintenance-man’s activeness and wisdom.
(Third Edition), China Statistical Publishing Company,
Beijing, China, 1997.
REFERENCES
13. Drenick, R. F., “The Failure Law of Complex
Equipment”, J. Soc. Indust. Appl. Math., 8(4), 1960,
1. Qi Yanjie, Lu Zhigang, Song Bifeng, “New Concept For
pp.680-690.
Aircraft Maintenance Management” Proceedings Annual
14. Nowland F S, Heap H F. Reliability Centered for
Reliability and Maintainability Symposium., 2003,
Maintenance. AD/A 066 579. 1978.
pp.68-73.
15. Yang Meiying, The Knowledge Economy and
2. Qi Yanjie, Lu Zhigang, Song Bifeng, “New Concept For
Management Innovation. Economy and Management
Aircraft Maintenance Management”. Proceedings Annual
Publishing Company, Beijing, China, 1999.
Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 2001,
16. Frank Jackman, “Forecast of International MRO Market
pp.401-405.
for the Next Decade”, Aviation Engineering &
3. Qi Yanjie, Lu zhigang, Gradation of DMMH/FH Index —
Maintenance, 2001.3 No.201. Beijing China.
A Research on Aircraft Maintainability Evaluation Index,
21Congress of the International Council of the
BIOGRAPHIES
Aeronautical Sciences(ICAS’98)，1998 Sep, p 95.
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Qi Yanjie, Ph. D.
2. Qi Yanjie, Lu zhigang, A Quantitative Evaluation of
P.O.Box 120
DMMH/FH Index (Airfield Level) for Military Aircraft,
Institute of Reliability Engineering
Third Pacific International Conference Aerospace Science
Northwestern Polytechnical University
& Technology (PICAST’3), pp. 460-462. Sep,
Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, 710072,
1997.Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China.
P.R.China
3. Qi Yanjie, Lu Zhigang, Song Bifeng, Aviation Equipment
System Engineering Complexity —“Human-Machine-
e-mail: chnq@pub.xaonline.com
Environment System” in R&M Engineering. Systems
Engineering —Theory & Practice, The System
Qi Yanjie is a Professor and teaches short courses in
Engineering Society of China, Beijing, Vol.20, No.3,
reliability & maintainability. From 1998 he is Consultant. of
pp.29-35, 2000.
Institute of Reliability Engineering in Northwestern
4. Qi Yanjie, Huang Kuanzhan, Li Jialin, A Quantitative
Polytechnical University(IRENPU). His PhD(2000), and
Study on Aircraft DMMH/FH, Reliability and
BS(1988) in aircraft design are from Northwestern
Environment Test on Electronic Products, 1997, Jan,
Polythchnical University(NPU) in Xi’an. He is a Leaguer of
pp.15-18. GuangZhou , China.
Chinese Society of Aeronautics and Astronautics (CSAA)
5. Qi Yanjie, Huang Kuanzhan, An Inquiry on the Concept
from 1995. He is a Researcher of 《The Message of Aviation
of Aircraft Maintainability Man Hour, Journal of
reliability & maintainability》(Beijing) form 1996. His name
Aeronautical Reliability and Maintainability Engineering,
is included in《The Dictionary of Chinese Contemporary
1996, July, pp.9-13. Beijing, China.
Specialists in Science & Technology》2000.
6. Anciliovich, Aircraft Reliability·Safety And survivability,
Aerospace Publishing Company，Beijing, China, 1993,
Lu Zhigang, Ph. D.
Mar, pp 262-266.
P.O.Box 120
7. John Moubray, 1995. Reliability-centred Maintenance,
Institute of Reliability Engineering
translated by Shi Lei, & Gu Changning, Mechanical
Northwestern Polytechnical University
Industry Publishing Company, Beijing, China, 2000.
Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, 710072,
8. Kam L. Wong, “Unified Field（Failure）Theory —
P.R.China
Demise of the Bath-tub Curve”, Proceedings Annual
Reliability and Maintainability Symposium，1981,
e-mail : lvzhigang@nwpu.edu.cn
pp.402-407.
9. Cliffotd M. Ryerson, “The Reliability Bath Tub Curve is

RAMS 2005 537 0-7803-8824-0/05/$20.00 ©2005 IEEE

 Lu Zhigang is a Professor and Senior Researcher in
reliability & maintainability of engineering system. From
1998 he is a Consultant of Institute of Reliability Engineering
in Northwestern Polytechnical University. His PhD(1989) ,
and BS(1984) in aircraft design are from Northwestern
Polythchnical University in Xi’an. He is a Fellow of
Reliability Branch of China Operational Research Society
from 1989.
Song Bifeng, Ph. D.
P.O.Box 120
Institute of Reliability Engineering
Northwestern Polytechnical University
RAMS 2005
Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, 710072,
P.R.China
e-mail : bfsong@nwpu.edu.cn
Song Bifeng is a Professor and Senior Researcher in
reliability & maintainability of engineering system and
structural system. From 1998 he is Director of Institute of
Reliability Engineering in Northwestern Polytechnical
University. His PhD(1997) , MS(1988) and BS(1985) in
aircraft design are from Northwestern Polythchnical
University in Xi’an. He is a Fellow of Reliability Branch of
China Operational Research Society from 1994.
538 0-7803-8824-0/05/$20.00 ©2005 IEEE