t XT (Actual Demand) Cumul X t, t+1

Sunday 1 109 109

Monday 2 92 100.5
Tuesday 3 98 99.7
Wednesday 4 96 98.75
Thursday 5 104 99.8
Friday 6 98 99.5
Saturday 7 109 100.9
Sunday 8 99 100.6
Monday 9 94 99.9
Tuesday 10 96 99.5
naïve Xt, t+1 et M=2 Xt, t-1 M=3 Xt, t-1
109
92 -17.0 100.5
98 -2.5 95 99.7
96 -3.7 97 95.3
104 5.3 100 99.3
98 -1.8 101 99.3
109 9.5 103.5 103.7
99 -1.9 104 102.0
94 -6.6 96.5 100.7
96 -3.9 95 96.3
 0.1 0.3 0.7
M=4 Xt, t-1 Alpha= 0.1 Alpha= 0.3 Alpha= 0.7
109 109 109
107 104 97
106 100 96
98.8 104 98 94
97.5 103 96 94
99.0 102 95 93
101.8 101 94 93
102.5 100 93 93
100.0 99 93 92
99.5 99 93 92